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Sam Darnold third highest pff grade since week 10

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6 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

I don’t think you get compensation if a transition tagged player signs with another team.  

Totally forgot that. Scratch that.

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1 minute ago, Jet Nut said:

Thanks, I meant to mention the lack of a running game.

Its so much easier to rip the QB, then to understand what goes into making a QB or offense's life easier and helping them be successful.  Its just too easy to claim he sucked and its the QBs fault.  

The bad OL gets so much play here and deservedly so, that it’s easy to ignore how the bad running game factors into the overall failure of the offense.  Bell is not a bad rb but his burst is lacking.  We all talk about how the offense needs more weapons, this begins at running back.  The offense would be much better with 2 OL replacements and a better rb than if they drafted Jeudy and threw FA money at wrs.  

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12 minutes ago, JiF said:

Sam isnt blowing the advanced metrics world out of the water?   I'm shocked, honestly.  This shock and awe has given me this feeling that I need to make a determination, right this second, on the career of a 22  year old kid who has started 22 games for one of the worst franchises in all of sports, on his 2nd HC, 2nd GM and playing for a miserable coach on the the least talented roster in the league that is completely injury plagued and playing behind the worst OL in the NFL.

 

The organization is obviously not the optimal place for an inexperienced QB to get thrown into and expect immediate results. However, we can look at his physical ability and see he's not blowing anyone out of the water with that either and probably never will. In order to compensate for the dysfunction I think the Jets need a Mahomes/Rodgers type of talent at QB. 

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9 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

The bad OL gets so much play here and deservedly so, that it’s easy to ignore how the bad running game factors into the overall failure of the offense.  Bell is not a bad rb but his burst is lacking.  We all talk about how the offense needs more weapons, this begins at running back.  The offense would be much better with 2 OL replacements and a better rb than if they drafted Jeudy and threw FA money at wrs.  

Totally agree until we get to the RB.  His style has always been to show patience, find a hole and hit it.

He rarely finds a hole to hit.  When there's one, he gets yardage.  Being slower not showing a burst is also a function of seeing a hole and hitting it

I really don't think Bell is totally at fault 

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15 minutes ago, JiF said:

Sam isnt blowing the advanced metrics world out of the water?   I'm shocked, honestly.  This shock and awe has given me this feeling that I need to make a determination, right this second, on the career of a 22  year old kid who has started 22 games for one of the worst franchises in all of sports, on his 2nd HC, 2nd GM and playing for a miserable coach on the the least talented roster in the league that is completely injury plagued and playing behind the worst OL in the NFL.

 

The only ones making a determination now are legions of eye test yahoos who watch the highlight reel plays and determine hes elite. They either forget, ignore or excuse away all the bad stuff that the analytics are showing do in fact exist.

My position hasnt changed through any ups and downs, hes got a ton of raw ability but a long way to go learning the craft which is independant of the specific situation here 

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Darnold will absolutely need a WR that is able to contort his body, outmuscle a DB and high point the ball to maximize his potential. All you need to do is see the WR's that Darnold thrived with at USC.

Consider Juju Smith Schuster. His numbers were far better his sophomore season, with Cody Kessler than with Darnold his junior season. While Smith-Schuster has speed and break away ability after the catch, and will fight for the ball, that was not the perfect fit for Darnold.

  Receiving Rushing Scrimmage
Year School Conf Class Pos G Rec Yds Avg TD Att Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
Career USC         213 3092 14.5 25 8 34 4.3 0 221 3126 14.1 2
*2014 USC Pac-12 FR WR 13 54 724 13.4 5 2 3 1.5 0 56 727 13.0 5
*2015 USC Pac-12 SO WR 14 89 1454 16.3 10 1 4 4.0 0 90 1458 16.2 10
*2016 USC Pac-12 JR WR 13 70 914 13.1 10 5 27 5.4 0 75 941 12.5 10

You know who had better numbers as a WR than Smith with Darnold? Deontay Burnett. 

  Receiving Rushing Scrimmage
Year School Conf Class Pos G Rec Yds Avg TD Att Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
Career USC         152 1897 12.5 16 5 29
*2015 USC Pac-12 FR WR 6 10 161 16.1 0 0 0   0 10 161 16.1 0
*2016 USC Pac-12 SO WR 12 56 622 11.1 7 3 31 10.3 0 59 653 11.1 7
*2017 USC Pac-12 JR WR 14 86 1114 13.0 9 2 -2 -1.0 0 88 1112 12.6 9

What does Burnett do very well? Position his body for a reception. And he has a smaller frame than Smith Schuster.

Of course, Burnett had the advantage of playing with a more experienced Darnold. 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Totally agree until we get to the RB.  His style has always been to show patience, find a hole and hit it.

He rarely finds a hole to hit.  When there's one, he gets yardage.  Being slower not showing a burst is also a function of seeing a hole and hitting it

I really don't think Bell is totally at fault 

But the slow plodding rb combined with the terrible OL produces very little on first and second downs on the ground, which makes it much easier for defenses to focus on sprinting around the tackles to get darnold.  

Big picture, guys are playing hard, but who out there is really helping him game in game out?  Which lineman really is his protector, what guy on offense is his bail out guy?  Who is the go to guy, it’s not Anderson.  It’s not bell, not beachum.  If you’re darnold, who would you say is the one guy on offense you know you can rely on to do something every week, b/c I’m not seeing one.  

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2 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

Darnold will absolutely need a WR that is able to contort his body, outmuscle a WR and high point the ball to maximize his potential. All you need to do is see the WR's that Darnold thrived with at USC.

Consider Juju Smith Schuster. His numbers were far better his sophomore season, with Cody Kessler than with Darnold his junior season. While Smith-Schuster has speed and break away ability after the catch, and will fight for the ball, that was not the perfect fit for Darnold.

  Receiving Rushing Scrimmage
Year School Conf Class Pos G Rec Yds Avg TD Att Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
Career USC         213 3092 14.5 25 8 34 4.3 0 221 3126 14.1 2
*2014 USC Pac-12 FR WR 13 54 724 13.4 5 2 3 1.5 0 56 727 13.0 5
*2015 USC Pac-12 SO WR 14 89 1454 16.3 10 1 4 4.0 0 90 1458 16.2 10
*2016 USC Pac-12 JR WR 13 70 914 13.1 10 5 27 5.4 0 75 941 12.5 10

You know who had better numbers as a WR than Smith with Darnold? Deontay Burnett. 

  Receiving Rushing Scrimmage
Year School Conf Class Pos G Rec Yds Avg TD Att Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
Career USC         152 1897 12.5 16 5 29
*2015 USC Pac-12 FR WR 6 10 161 16.1 0 0 0   0 10 161 16.1 0
*2016 USC Pac-12 SO WR 12 56 622 11.1 7 3 31 10.3 0 59 653 11.1 7
*2017 USC Pac-12 JR WR 14 86 1114 13.0 9 2 -2 -1.0 0 88 1112 12.6 9

What does Burnett do very well? Position his body for a reception. And he has a smaller frame than Smith Schuster.

Of course, Burnett had the advantage of playing with a more experienced Darnold. 

 

 

Exactly, darnold needs guys who run crisp routes and can get open, he can hit them in stride.  It’s why i think Anderson is not a good longer term fit with him.  

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Geno Smith once had a fantastic 4-game stretch to end the 2013 season.  That didn't work out so well in the long haul.

I don't really much care about these "Since this date" stats.  They're nice, but it's too small of a sample to be making any meaningful claims about Darnold.  

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1 hour ago, maury77 said:

I repeat, nothing is more important than fixing the OL this off season. 2 premium free agent signings and 2 OL picked in the teams first 4 picks. I'm fairly optimistic that Joe Douglas understands this and will get it done. 

 

 

This

I’m honestly not opposed to going all out and forming a potential superunit at this point. I miss the hell out of that 2008-2010 OL that just bullied the piss out of teams and pushed them all over the field.

Hell, re-sign Beachum, go sign Scherff and Thuney in FA, then take Wirfs and Humphrey with the first two picks.

 

LT Kelvin Beachum

LG Joe Thuney 

C Creed Humphrey 

RG Brandon Scherff 

RT Tristan Wirfs

 

Some may say it’s excessive but you’d hear no complaints from me.

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9 hours ago, 14 in Green said:

I don’t see this team getting a whole lot better the next two years, and I think we’re going to be having these same conversations with the same people about Sam the entire time, because I see him as the boat the tide lifts, not the tide that does the lifting.

Wow, what's the point, then? 

The reality of the situation is that Darnold, Gase, and Douglas will all be here thru next season at the barest of minimums. Douglas hasn't really had a chance to do anything (outside of the Hail Mary for Ryan Kalil). Gase and Darnold are being judged for their work with the team that Maccagnan built - the guy this board almost universally (hi, @Pac!) wanted fired at the end of last year. 

They need starting OL first and foremost. I expect that to be a focus in free agency. After that, I think the weapons need more tweaking than overhaul. On defense, EDGE and CB continue to be concerns. I'm looking forward to seeing what the well regarded Joe Douglas does with the tools at hand to improve the team over a single off season, let alone two years. 

47 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

Robby is who he is, he’s a role player that could be a nice compliment in a complete receiver group.  He’s not a main cog in that group.  This team has been void of legit receivers for so long that people forget what they look like.  They talk themselves into thinking a group of Robby, Crowder and Thomas is somehow good enough to compete week in and week out in this league.  It simply isn’t.  

I like Robby, but I like him a lot better as the team's third receiver. I'd be interested in holding onto him for that role. The last thing this Jets' offense needs to face is another safety in the box. Teams have to account for Anderson. There's value to that. 

That said, if I were putting an offense around Sam, I would run a lot of two TE sets with Herndon and Griffen. Slot receiver nowadays means starting receiver, so Crowder stays on the field, lining Herndon up outside of him on occasion. The Jets need a big-bodied WR in the #1 spot. I don't think Bell is a good fit for this team running the ball, but as another weapon in the passing game he's certainly an asset. I'd try to trade him, but I think the Jets have diminished his value and it's going to be hard to find someone to give up much to take over his contract. But if you give Darnold some protection and 3-4 guys who can all work the middle of the field with Anderson taking off the top when he's out there, I think the kid can thrive. 

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Just now, slats said:

Wow, what's the point, then? 

The reality of the situation is that Darnold, Gase, and Douglas will all be here thru next season at the barest of minimums. Douglas hasn't really had a chance to do anything (outside of the Hail Mary for Ryan Kalil). Gase and Darnold are being judged for their work with the team that Maccagnan built - the guy this board almost universally (hi, @Pac!) wanted fired at the end of last year. 

They need starting OL first and foremost. I expect that to be a focus in free agency. After that, I think the weapons need more tweaking than overhaul. On defense, EDGE and CB continue to be concerns. I'm looking forward to seeing what the well regarded Joe Douglas does with the tools at hand to improve the team over a single off season, let alone two years. 

I like Robby, but I like him a lot better as the team's third receiver. I'd be interested in holding onto him for that role. The last thing this Jets' offense needs to face is another safety in the box. Teams have to account for Anderson. There's value to that. 

That said, if I were putting an offense around Sam, I would run a lot of two TE sets with Herndon and Griffen. Slot receiver nowadays means starting receiver, so Crowder stays on the field, lining Herndon up outside of him on occasion. The Jets need a big-bodied WR in the #1 spot. I don't think Bell is a good fit for this team running the ball, but as another weapon in the passing game he's certainly an asset. I'd try to trade him, but I think the Jets have diminished his value and it's going to be hard to find someone to give up much to take over his contract. But if you give Darnold some protection and 3-4 guys who can all work the middle of the field with Anderson taking off the top when he's out there, I think the kid can thrive. 

Seems as if the offense has functioned best this year when throwing to Thomas, crowder and griffin.  Darnold can fit the ball into tight windows but needs guys who run crisp routes and will fight for the ball, so Anderson is not an ideal fit.  Also the jets are lame on screen plays, they would really benefit having more speed.

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13 hours ago, Untouchable said:

Why not judge with your eyes?

This is why I hate this analytics crap.

Boiling down athletics to a bunch of percentages and equations.

If you’re expecting Darnold to consistently look like Montana with this dogsh*t roster then I don’t know what to tell you.

He’s a 22 year old kid who exhibits elite traits throwing the football on one of the least talented teams in the league.

Build up the OL and give him another legit receiver besides Crowder and then you can more properly judge him.

Exactly! Post of the week. I think people just don't get it. It's hard to play QB, let alone being 22 and coming off mono with a bad roster and crappy O-line. He has done really well considering the situation he was put in. 

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3 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Seems as if the offense has functioned best this year when throwing to Thomas, crowder and griffin.  Darnold can fit the ball into tight windows but needs guys who run crisp routes and will fight for the ball, so Anderson is not an ideal fit.  Also the jets are lame on screen plays, they would really benefit having more speed.

I like Anderson, but I'm not breaking the bank for him. If they opt to let him walk, I hope they have a plan in place to replace his speed. I think Sam's strength is working the middle of the field, but you have to have that home run threat out there or the defense will take the middle of the field away. 

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18 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Geno Smith once had a fantastic 4-game stretch to end the 2013 season.  That didn't work out so well in the long haul.

I don't really much care about these "Since this date" stats They're nice, but it's too small of a sample to be making any meaningful claims about Darnold.  

Which it's why it's also an absurd opinion to say he's "flashed elite ability."  No he hasn't.  Everyone in the NFL can make good throws.  Darnold has made good throws.  What makes a QB elite is being able to do so consistently.  I've always used the example of Steph Curry.  Steph Curry and I can hit the exact same 3-pointer.  That he can do it consistently when I can't is what makes him elite and me lucky.

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Just now, Greensleeves said:

Exactly! Post of the week. I think people just don't get it. It's hard to play QB, let alone being 22 and coming off mono with a bad roster and crappy O-line. He has done really well considering the situation he was put in. 

When you really think about it, he's 16-0 in heart and gumption.

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46 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

The organization is obviously not the optimal place for an inexperienced QB to get thrown into and expect immediate results. However, we can look at his physical ability and see he's not blowing anyone out of the water with that either and probably never will. In order to compensate for the dysfunction I think the Jets need a Mahomes/Rodgers type of talent at QB. 

We disagree on his physical ability.  I dont see anything glaring physically that is holding Sam back and anyone who is close to him or knows the position, raves about his athleticism, arm strength, release, etc. He's got it all, just needs some fine tuning as he's barely played the position.  The only thing I see holding him back is that he's the QB for one of the most miserable teams in all of sports.

 

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Just now, TeddEY said:

Which it's why it's also an absurd opinion to say he's "flashed elite ability."  No he hasn't.  Everyone in the NFL can make good throws.  Darnold has made good throws.  What makes a QB elite is being able to do so consistently.  I've always used the example of Steph Curry.  Steph Curry and I can hit the exact same 3-pointer.  That he can do it consistently when I can't is what makes him elite and me lucky.

And with a hand in his face.  Which is a good analogy for a QB facing pressure.  Yeah, the O-Line sucks.  But good/elite QB's have the ability to overcome bad O-Lines a lot of the time.  It's not ideal to force a young QB to play with a bad O-Line, and of course we need to improve it.  But it's not always the best excuse, either.  

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12 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

Which it's why it's also an absurd opinion to say he's "flashed elite ability."  No he hasn't.  Everyone in the NFL can make good throws.  Darnold has made good throws.  What makes a QB elite is being able to do so consistently.  I've always used the example of Steph Curry.  Steph Curry and I can hit the exact same 3-pointer.  That he can do it consistently when I can't is what makes him elite and me lucky.

But his efg% was among his lowest in his first 2 years in the league. ;) By a wide margin. 

EDIT-I am totally wrong on that statement. Not sure what I was looking at. I am wrong again!!

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2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And with a hand in his face.  Which is a good analogy for a QB facing pressure.  Yeah, the O-Line sucks.  But good/elite QB's have the ability to overcome bad O-Lines a lot of the time.  It's not ideal to force a young QB to play with a bad O-Line, and of course we need to improve it.  But it's not always the best excuse, either.  

Bad line and no running game. How much do you want a 22 yr old qb to overcompensate for?  

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Just now, JiF said:

 We disagree on his physical ability.  I dont see anything glaring physically that is holding Sam back and anyone who is close to him or knows the position, raves about his athleticism, arm strength, release, etc. He's got it all, just needs some fine tuning as he's barely played the position.  The only thing I see holding him back is that he's the QB for one of the most miserable teams in all of sports.

  

I think his style of play requires a top tier arm, and I don't think he has it.

I mean, just look at the all-mighty eye test.  Did we not see a meaningful difference between Darnold and Dalton last week?

I'm also worried that this "fine tuning" is a much bigger deal than you're making it out to be, but I agree.  Learning to play the position is the biggest issue right now.

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7 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Bad line and no running game. How much do you want a 22 yr old qb to overcompensate for?  

 

10 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And with a hand in his face.  Which is a good analogy for a QB facing pressure.  Yeah, the O-Line sucks.  But good/elite QB's have the ability to overcome bad O-Lines a lot of the time.  It's not ideal to force a young QB to play with a bad O-Line, and of course we need to improve it.  But it's not always the best excuse, either.  

 

Read this again.  I'm still saying we need to improve it.  I'm also saying he can't use it as a crutch. 

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Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

And with a hand in his face.  Which is a good analogy for a QB facing pressure.  Yeah, the O-Line sucks.  But good/elite QB's have the ability to overcome bad O-Lines a lot of the time.  It's not ideal to force a young QB to play with a bad O-Line, and of course we need to improve it.  But it's not always the best excuse, either.  

Yup, the book isn't written on Darnold, but the notion that better offensive line = top tier QB is just way off.  He's got a long way to go, regardless of the line, which, everyone agrees, needs to get better.

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1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

 

Read this again.  I'm still saying we need to improve it.  I'm also saying he can't use it as a crutch.  

He has no crutch, he is trying to compensate for the crap talent around him by running around, slinging balls at odd angles, etc. 

how often does he even have 2nd and 6 after a run on first down?  

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Just now, Augustiniak said:

He has no crutch, he is trying to compensate for the crap talent around him by running around, slinging balls at odd angles, etc. 

This sentence contradicts itself.  I'm saying YOU are providing him with the crutch.  IE an excuse.

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Just now, Augustiniak said:

He has no crutch, he is trying to compensate for the crap talent around him by running around, slinging balls at odd angles, etc. 

 how often does he even have 2nd and 6 after a run on first down?  

Running around an slinging balls at odd angles was his literal scouting report, no?

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And stop with the "22 year old" excuse.  This is his 2nd full season in the NFL.  That excuse goes out the window.  It's always ill-advised to draft a QB with limited college experience.  Well, he's getting that experience now, for better or worse.

I like Sam and still think he might be the answer.  He was the QB I wanted most in 2018, and only Lamar Jackson's play is making me think he can't be the top QB from that class.  And I'm certainly not advocating looking for a new QB in 2020.  Just playing Devil's Advocate here, as its not a slam dunk that he's a franchise guy.  

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1 minute ago, TeddEY said:

Running around an slinging balls at odd angles was his literal scouting report, no?

He was also called a "Cow on skates" when it came to his footwork.  Overstated, yes, but we've seen a bit of that too.  

QBase gave him a pretty good grade but also a high bust potential.  We're seeing some of that.  

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2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

This sentence contradicts itself.  I'm saying YOU are providing him with the crutch.  IE an excuse.

On the field he has no help. He was raw coming out of usc and darnold more than most highly drafted qbs needed a decent line and competent running game.  Darnold needed more competence around him early in his career than a guy like Matt Ryan who was more seasoned and refined in mechanics. Darnold is forced to rely and revert to instinct and athleticism to compensate for bad blocking, no running game, below average wrs and suspect coaching. 

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9 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

On the field he has no help. He was raw coming out of usc and darnold more than most highly drafted qbs needed a decent line and competent running game.  Darnold needed more competence around him early in his career than a guy like Matt Ryan who was more seasoned and refined in mechanics. Darnold is forced to rely and revert to instinct and athleticism to compensate for bad blocking, no running game, below average wrs and suspect coaching. 

 

The first part is not true, and hearkens back to the Sanchez "NEEDS MORE WEPINZZZ" argument.

2nd part:  Holy excuses, Batman!

He's a QB.  If he needs ideal circumstances to succeed, he's not the guy.  He needs to elevate the play of the team.  He's done that a few times this year.  We need to see it more often.  It's as simple as that.  

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4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

The first part is not true, and hearkens back to the Sanchez "NEEDS MORE WEPINZZZ" argument.

2nd part:  Holy excuses, Batman!

He's a QB.  If he needs ideal circumstances to succeed, he's not the guy.  He needs to elevate the play of the team.  He's done that a few times this year.  We need to see it more often.  It's as simple as that.  

When good qbs have bad games and they lose, its usually because their line broke down and their skill positional guys screwed up. A few weeks ago, the saints got smoked by the falcons, when peat was injured and brees got sacked maybe 8 times. Of course this is the exception for guys like brees but the takeaway is that if you put a hof qb in a crappy situation he will fail just like someone like darnold will. The difference is that good qbs who have proven it will get the benefit of the doubt. And they should.  But part of the flip side is that good qbs have better players around them which alleviate the burden. 
 

 

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11 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

The first part is not true, and hearkens back to the Sanchez "NEEDS MORE WEPINZZZ" argument.

2nd part:  Holy excuses, Batman!

He's a QB.  If he needs ideal circumstances to succeed, he's not the guy.  He needs to elevate the play of the team.  He's done that a few times this year.  We need to see it more often.  It's as simple as that.  

I agree for the most part, but I do think a terrible oline can make any QB look average. If you can’t block the play it’s not going to work. Plain and simple. 

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42 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And with a hand in his face.  Which is a good analogy for a QB facing pressure.  Yeah, the O-Line sucks.  But good/elite QB's have the ability to overcome bad O-Lines a lot of the time.  It's not ideal to force a young QB to play with a bad O-Line, and of course we need to improve it.  But it's not always the best excuse, either.  

Tom Brady is Elite.

How does he look with ANY pressure?  I know it’s rare between his ability to read Ds, his quick release and the Pats allowed to Hold every play...but on those rare occasions the pressure gets home somewhat consistently during a game...Brady actually looks below Average.

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1 hour ago, Scott Dierking said:

Darnold will absolutely need a WR that is able to contort his body, outmuscle a DB and high point the ball to maximize his potential. All you need to do is see the WR's that Darnold thrived with at USC.

Consider Juju Smith Schuster. His numbers were far better his sophomore season, with Cody Kessler than with Darnold his junior season. While Smith-Schuster has speed and break away ability after the catch, and will fight for the ball, that was not the perfect fit for Darnold.

  Receiving Rushing Scrimmage
Year School Conf Class Pos G Rec Yds Avg TD Att Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
Career USC         213 3092 14.5 25 8 34 4.3 0 221 3126 14.1 2
*2014 USC Pac-12 FR WR 13 54 724 13.4 5 2 3 1.5 0 56 727 13.0 5
*2015 USC Pac-12 SO WR 14 89 1454 16.3 10 1 4 4.0 0 90 1458 16.2 10
*2016 USC Pac-12 JR WR 13 70 914 13.1 10 5 27 5.4 0 75 941 12.5 10

You know who had better numbers as a WR than Smith with Darnold? Deontay Burnett. 

  Receiving Rushing Scrimmage
Year School Conf Class Pos G Rec Yds Avg TD Att Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
Career USC         152 1897 12.5 16 5 29
*2015 USC Pac-12 FR WR 6 10 161 16.1 0 0 0   0 10 161 16.1 0
*2016 USC Pac-12 SO WR 12 56 622 11.1 7 3 31 10.3 0 59 653 11.1 7
*2017 USC Pac-12 JR WR 14 86 1114 13.0 9 2 -2 -1.0 0 88 1112 12.6 9

What does Burnett do very well? Position his body for a reception. And he has a smaller frame than Smith Schuster.

Of course, Burnett had the advantage of playing with a more experienced Darnold. 

 

 

Also JSS played a few games with Max Browne who was terrible. 
 

Im sure Darnold would love to have JSS

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