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New York Mick

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2 hours ago, JiF said:

Dak Prescott has started 61 games in the NFL and plays for one of the most loaded teams in the entire league.  His offense is especially loaded having a top 5 OL, top 5 RB, a top 10 WR, one of the best up and coming WR's in the league and veteran pass catchers all around him and he currently has 2 more wins than Sam Darnold who plays on arguably the worst team in the NFL, behind the worst OL in the NFL with average to below average weaponz.

This is once again a situation where Jets fans pay zero attention to the details but will let DVOA tell them that Dak Prescott in the best QB in the NFL and Sam Darnold cant hold a candle to him.  Yet, when I watched them play head to head, it wasnt even arguable who was the better QB on the field.

 

 

 

Admittedly, a flaw in DVOA is it can't really factor in the talent surrounding any players.  It simply takes into account down and situations and determines which plays are "successful".  

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The Bears had ~ 1 % chance of making the playoffs entering last night's game, per ESPN.  Basically they had little to play for and still thumped Dallas.  Not a good look for "America's Team".    

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14 minutes ago, Lith said:

And yet, Dallas will still be in first place at the end of this week's games; regardless of what happens in Eagle-Giants on Monday night.  NFCE is a joke this year. 

The NFC East is a joke pretty much every year.  Yet those teams get huge national attention every year and lots of primetime games simply because of the I-95 bias.  

The Eagles finally won a title but I don't see it happening again anytime soon.  

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3 minutes ago, CTM said:

The tone of this thread is the Sam is significantly better than Dak, I'm lumping you in with the other homers

The H2H bias is strong.  I would probably franchise Dak and/or try to trade him if I'm Jerry Jones but that doesn't mean he isn't having a very good year overall.  

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3 minutes ago, Lith said:

Does it also consider opponent.  Cowboys have beaten up on some pretty bad teams this year, Skins, Giants 2x, Phins, Lions.  Dak has had some big games agasint some pretty bad teams.

Yes, it does.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa

Quote

DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative. For more detail, read below.

 

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3 hours ago, JiF said:

I understand and I'm exaggerating my point by calling all advanced stats stupid.  They have value just very little value because all of them are inherently flawed and give you outcomes that are totally bogus. 

So what numbers would you say are highly or moderately valuable?  None of them?  

Keep in mind that all successful franchises across all major sports invest heavy resources into advanced analytics, and a major part of their success is tied to those investments.  Ernie Adams, the architect of the Patriot franchise and their various forms of cheating, has been using advanced stats since the beginning of the Patriot dynasty.  

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