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2 hours ago, JiF said:

Dak Prescott has started 61 games in the NFL and plays for one of the most loaded teams in the entire league.  His offense is especially loaded having a top 5 OL, top 5 RB, a top 10 WR, one of the best up and coming WR's in the league and veteran pass catchers all around him and he currently has 2 more wins than Sam Darnold who plays on arguably the worst team in the NFL, behind the worst OL in the NFL with average to below average weaponz.

This is once again a situation where Jets fans pay zero attention to the details but will let DVOA tell them that Dak Prescott in the best QB in the NFL and Sam Darnold cant hold a candle to him.  Yet, when I watched them play head to head, it wasnt even arguable who was the better QB on the field.

 

 

 

Admittedly, a flaw in DVOA is it can't really factor in the talent surrounding any players.  It simply takes into account down and situations and determines which plays are "successful".  

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Boys look to be in freefall now.  Fully expect a firing at seasons end.

Sadly, OUR two "good wins" now don't look so good, with both the Raiders and Cowboys in serious decline.

It's very possible we end the season with no wins over winning teams. :( 

 

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The Bears had ~ 1 % chance of making the playoffs entering last night's game, per ESPN.  Basically they had little to play for and still thumped Dallas.  Not a good look for "America's Team".    

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59 minutes ago, CTM said:

I mean you said Dak can't hold a candle to him and I assume you will agree Dak is atleast average, so it doesn't seem like that big of a leap to elite from "an average guy can't hold a candle to him"

Reading comprehension is important in a debate.  I said you bozos are saying that Sam cant hold a candle to Dak.  My gawd man.  Not the other way around...

2 hours ago, JiF said:

This is once again a situation where Jets fans pay zero attention to the details but will let DVOA tell them that Dak Prescott in the best QB in the NFL and Sam Darnold cant hold a candle to him.

 

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1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

The Bears had ~ 1 % chance of making the playoffs entering last night's game, per ESPN.  Basically they had little to play for and still thumped Dallas.  Not a good look for "America's Team".    

And yet, Dallas will still be in first place at the end of this week's games; regardless of what happens in Eagle-Giants on Monday night.  NFCE is a joke this year. 

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2 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

True no offense can function properly this way

This has to be one of the worst OL groups I have ever seen. I didn't watch David Carrs O lines up close and personal. You only hear about O lines when they are really good or really bad this group is really bad usually only one player sticks out .

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14 minutes ago, Lith said:

And yet, Dallas will still be in first place at the end of this week's games; regardless of what happens in Eagle-Giants on Monday night.  NFCE is a joke this year. 

The NFC East is a joke pretty much every year.  Yet those teams get huge national attention every year and lots of primetime games simply because of the I-95 bias.  

The Eagles finally won a title but I don't see it happening again anytime soon.  

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32 minutes ago, JiF said:

Reading comprehension is important in a debate.  I said you bozos are saying that Sam cant hold a candle to Dak.  My gawd man.  Not the other way around...

 

The tone of this thread is the Sam is significantly better than Dak, I'm lumping you in with the other homers

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37 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Admittedly, a flaw in DVOA is it can't really factor in the talent surrounding any players.  It simply takes into account down and situations and determines which plays are "successful".  

Its not perfect therefore it's trash. TRASH!

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3 minutes ago, CTM said:

The tone of this thread is the Sam is significantly better than Dak, I'm lumping you in with the other homers

The H2H bias is strong.  I would probably franchise Dak and/or try to trade him if I'm Jerry Jones but that doesn't mean he isn't having a very good year overall.  

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51 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Admittedly, a flaw in DVOA is it can't really factor in the talent surrounding any players.  It simply takes into account down and situations and determines which plays are "successful".  

Does it also consider opponent.  Cowboys have beaten up on some pretty bad teams this year, Skins, Giants 2x, Phins, Lions.  Dak has had some big games agasint some pretty bad teams.

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3 minutes ago, Lith said:

Does it also consider opponent.  Cowboys have beaten up on some pretty bad teams this year, Skins, Giants 2x, Phins, Lions.  Dak has had some big games agasint some pretty bad teams.

Yes, it does.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa

Quote

DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative. For more detail, read below.

 

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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Admittedly, a flaw in DVOA is it can't really factor in the talent surrounding any players.  It simply takes into account down and situations and determines which plays are "successful".  

I understand and I'm exaggerating my point by calling all advanced stats stupid.  They have value just very little value because all of them are inherently flawed and give you outcomes that are totally bogus. 

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2 hours ago, Lith said:

Does it also consider opponent.  Cowboys have beaten up on some pretty bad teams this year, Skins, Giants 2x, Phins, Lions.  Dak has had some big games agasint some pretty bad teams.

It considers the opponent’s aggregate, not at the time the opponent was played. For example, when the Jets win over the cowboys and raiders start to look more and more pedestrian as the losses continue to pile up for them. Conversely, the loss to Miami is looking better and better.

Obviously this method causes data smoothing and doesn’t account for hot/cold runs or for the Immediate impact that a short term injury to a significant player will have, but overall it’s Pretty good. The major issue with DVOA as 80 pointed out is that it doesn’t factor teammates...which is why you get posters calling Dak an MVP candidate on a sub .500 team with almost all their wins coming against scrubs.

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8 hours ago, HessStation said:

There isn’t one player on the Jets who would start for Dallas on offense 

Including Sam.

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14 hours ago, JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF said:

And Prescott turned down $30Mill...I wouldn’t pay him $3...because he’ll NEVER win a SB..and that’s what this is all about, right?

Douglas puts some professional players around Darnold, especially OL...Darnold is going to want $100Mill a year in 3 years, if Prescott insanely thinks he’s worth 40.  If Darnold was QBing the Cowboys THIS year, with that stacked team, I think at worst they are 10-3 right now.

🤔

insert 27th ranked QB over the last two years, add water, stir well. Bake at 400* for 30 minutes and, presto! The Cowboys are 10-3.

No sense letting facts ruin a good story. Better to stick with hopes and dreams, we can always have a happy ending that way.

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54 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Just checking in to see if Dak is an MVP candidate?

No way he beats out Sam or Baker this year.

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3 hours ago, JiF said:

I understand and I'm exaggerating my point by calling all advanced stats stupid.  They have value just very little value because all of them are inherently flawed and give you outcomes that are totally bogus. 

So what numbers would you say are highly or moderately valuable?  None of them?  

Keep in mind that all successful franchises across all major sports invest heavy resources into advanced analytics, and a major part of their success is tied to those investments.  Ernie Adams, the architect of the Patriot franchise and their various forms of cheating, has been using advanced stats since the beginning of the Patriot dynasty.  

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10 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

🤔

insert 27th ranked QB over the last two years, add water, stir well. Bake at 400* for 30 minutes and, presto! The Cowboys are 10-3.

No sense letting facts ruin a good story. Better to stick with hopes and dreams, we can always have a happy ending that way.

You know in your heart that wherever you are getting that ranking it means exceedingly little and has no real relation to what Darnold is or isn't at this point. He is a work in progress.

No analytic really is very good at determining how good a QB is. As an example, there are QBs that have completely upside down ratings if you lool at Total QBR and compare it to DOVA or another advanced statistic.

I will say this. When I watch Prescott I see nothing elite about him at all. I see another in the list of compiler QBs that will have good statistics but when it really comes down to being "the guy" falls short over and over and over again. These QBs do well against really week teams WHEN surrounded by a lot of talent, but completely fail against good opponents. As last night showed, oftentimes these QBs will wind up getting decent stats from these games as they compile huge numbers against soft zones when the game is out of reach.

Prescott is that guy. He has had his team completely out of many games this year including Jets, Green Bay, last night, and several others and then just gets a lot of stats in second half. Team loses but it appears it wasnt his fault.

There is nothing exceptional about Prescott. The are probably at least 20 QBs, maybe more that would be as effective or better than Dak if they played on the Dallas team. That is what my eyes see.

FWIW, there are signs that Darnold might be one of these guys as well, especially looking back and seeing that Oakland and Dallas were not really quality wins either. But I see way more talent in Sam than Prescott and I am hoping that once he has a solid team around him he will really take off.

Garbage time stats are really a scourge in the perception of players in the NFL.

An interesting stat would be stats weighted by what the game situation was. Is it a close game, or just silly time stat padding time. I suspect Dak would plummet in his perceived value.

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1 minute ago, johnnysd said:

You know in your heart that wherever you are getting that ranking it means exceedingly little and has no real relation to what Darnold is or isn't at this point. He is a work in progress.

No analytic really is very good at determining how good a QB is. As an example, there are QBs that have completely upside down ratings if you lool at Total QBR and compare it to DOVA or another advanced statistic.

I will say this. When I watch Prescott I see nothing elite about him at all. I see another in the list of compiler QBs that will have good statistics but when it really comes down to being "the guy" falls short over and over and over again. These QBs do well against really week teams WHEN surrounded by a lot of talent, but completely fail against good opponents. As last night showed, oftentimes these QBs will wind up getting decent stats from these games as they compile huge numbers against soft zones when the game is out of reach.

Prescott is that guy. He has had his team completely out of many games this year including Jets, Green Bay, last night, and several others and then just gets a lot of stats in second half. Team loses but it appears it wasnt his fault.

There is nothing exceptional about Prescott. The are probably at least 20 QBs, maybe more that would be as effective or better than Dak if they played on the Dallas team. That is what my eyes see.

FWIW, there are signs that Darnold might be one of these guys as well, especially looking back and seeing that Oakland and Dallas were not really quality wins either. But I see way more talent in Sam than Prescott and I am hoping that once he has a solid team around him he will really take off.

Garbage time stats are really a scourge in the perception of players in the NFL.

An interesting stat would be stats weighted by what the game situation was. Is it a close game, or just silly time stat padding time. I suspect Dak would plummet in his perceived value.

I think Prescott is a nice story. What a 4th round pick? He and his team are struggling right now, but the worst thing anyone can say about him in his career is he’s been above average. I’m not defending him here, I’m criticizing  those who are saying he’s terrible and Darnold would be 10-3 with that team.

The guys here who claim Darnold is better then him right now are talking out of their you know what.

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3 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

I think Prescott is a nice story. What a 4th round pick? He and his team are struggling right now, but the worst thing anyone can say about him in his career is he’s been above average. I’m not defending him here, I’m criticizing  those who are saying he’s terrible and Darnold would be 10-3 with that team.

The guys here who claim Darnold is better then him right now are talking out of their you know what.

Well until darnold gets an oline and a legit #1 wr we can't judge between the two, we just don;t know.

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6 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

I think Prescott is a nice story. What a 4th round pick? He and his team are struggling right now, but the worst thing anyone can say about him in his career is he’s been above average. I’m not defending him here, I’m criticizing  those who are saying he’s terrible and Darnold would be 10-3 with that team.

The guys here who claim Darnold is better then him right now are talking out of their you know what.

I believe it's the same crew that either actually masturbates and then post masturbating GIFS
after he has a good game, or just do the latter....  which is gross either way.

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3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

So what numbers would you say are highly or moderately valuable?  None of them?  

Keep in mind that all successful franchises across all major sports invest heavy resources into advanced analytics, and a major part of their success is tied to those investments.  Ernie Adams, the architect of the Patriot franchise and their various forms of cheating, has been using advanced stats since the beginning of the Patriot dynasty.  

It makes more sense in other sports as you know. 

I find the advanced athleticism testing stuff important for certain positions.  I think certain stats are important in FA player evaluation.  I just don’t think these equation stats work well in Football. 

I don’t think Ernie Adams has been using DVOA and PFF to make any decisions. From what I understand, his value is more in regards to situational football and scouting, not how other players on the league grade out on a equation like we are discussing.  That team is notorious for not signing big name free agents, so I don’t see how advanced stats the way it’s being used vs/against the play of a particular player on the board applies to what he’s doing for the Pats but I don’t know intimately what he does for them either.  

For example; what good does him knowing that DVOA says Dan Prescott is the 3rd best QB in Football and Darnold is 31st or whatever? What do the Pats gain from that knowledge?

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23 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

No way he beats out Sam or Baker this year.

Neither Sam nor Baker had anything to do with the stupidity of calling Dak an MVP candidate, but at least there’s this:

On 11/30/2019 at 11:18 AM, 14 in Green said:

I try not to bring up Mayfield in any Darnold discussions any more, I like to limit that to threads about him.

 
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Just now, Beerfish said:

Well until darnold gets an oline and a legit #1 wr we can't judge between the two, we just don;t know.

That’s the company line here, my friend.

What that means, I guess is two years in with a guy we gave up a 6th pick in the 1st round plus 3 2nd round picks to move up 3 spots for...

, we won’t know anything about him until and/or if we surround him with things some teams never get, and best case would take us years to acquire?

Thats depressing.

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10 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

I think Prescott is a nice story. What a 4th round pick?

Dallas got way more value out of that pick than the Jets have gotten out of Sam who
they sold the farm for.

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btw, I think QBR tries to account for game situ and values plays more where the game is on the line...

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1 minute ago, 14 in Green said:

That’s the company line here, my friend.

What that means, I guess is two years in with a guy we gave up a 6th pick in the 1st round plus 3 2nd round picks to move up 3 spots for...

, we won’t know anything about him until and/or if we surround him with things some teams never get, and best case would take us years to acquire?

Thats depressing.

No you are wrong, 'my friend'.  The discussion here has been about Dak vs Darnold.

Dak has 3 pro bowlers and one of the best lines in the league and a legit #1 wr.

The jets have one of the worst olines in the league and nothing resembling a #1 wr.

If you are going to twist the narrative like you just have you must be really distressed at Baker mayfield and what he has done this year considerimng he has vastly better talent around him.

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11 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Neither Sam nor Baker had anything to do with the stupidity of calling Dak an MVP candidate, but at least there’s this:

Then there’s what you just did. Take a quote that was obviously an attempt to get a chuckle out of you, then just to prove to me you have no sense of humor, go look up an old post that in your mind makes you feel smug and content. I guess you feel better now.

Glad that worked out so well for you.

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7 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

No you are wrong, 'my friend'.  The discussion here has been about Dak vs Darnold.

Dak has 3 pro bowlers and one of the best lines in the league and a legit #1 wr.

The jets have one of the worst olines in the league and nothing resembling a #1 wr.

If you are going to twist the narrative like you just have you must be really distressed at Baker mayfield and what he has done this year considerimng he has vastly better talent around him.

Jeez, no need to put my friend in quotes. I actually do like and enjoy talking with you, I meant it when I said it to you.. I guess I should also apologize for throwing Baker’s name into that reply to the other guy. It obviously came off the wrong way.

Him and I go back and forth about him, and I only threw his name in there to show I wasn’t talking exclusively about Sam in my reply to his cute little “I’m here to see if Dak is still an MVP candidate” remark.

As for what Dak has around him, yeah, no comparison. But by the same token, there is not a single thing Sam has done in his two years here that should have made anyone in this thread say he is better then Prescott, or would be with that talent around him. Sorry.

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33 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

Dallas got way more value out of that pick than the Jets have gotten out of Sam who
they sold the farm for.

It’s so obvious they did, to everyone except the “wait until we have 10 all pros surrounding Sam” bunch.

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3 hours ago, 14 in Green said:

Then there’s what you just did. Take a quote that was obviously an attempt to get a chuckle out of you, then just to prove to me you have no sense of humor, go look up an old post that in your mind makes you feel smug and content. I guess you feel better now.

Glad that worked out so well for you.

yikes. 

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