Sam Darnold in the second half of the season

[flgreen]

This fanbase is tough.  LOL

This is a 22 YO kid out there.  He's behind a horrible OL.  When the season opened this was a VERY weak roster.  The Jets lead the league in players on IR.  More importantly  they also lead the league, by a big margin, in cap space used by players on IR.  Arguably,  the Jets two best players , didn't play today.

Darnold didn't have a great day today, but he got the job done.  He has almost no talent in skill position players, and a horrible OL.  

Under the conditions I thought he had a pretty good day.  Rest of the schedule looks pretty grim, but in all honesty I'm not unhappy with Darnold. 

 

[CrazyCarl40]

15 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Not sure what your point is here. Yes, this team (with arguably a bottom five NFL roster) sh*t the bed twice in the last 6 weeks. 

Point is that if they were playing a decent team today they would have lost. They aren’t getting better. They’re just playing worse teams. If they put forth the effort they did today the next three weeks, it’s going to be 0-3. That’s not acceptable to me. I had very little hope for this season when they hired Gase and let Macc run the offseason, but I held out hope there would at least be some signs of life, but it’s just not there. 

[dbatesman]

26 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

One of his best games of the season was the Cowboys game. 

Had a really good game against Dallas and then a disaster against NE and a bad game against the Jaguars. Hasn't had a bad game since. Improvement is improvement. 

Gotta beat who is in front of you. 

The Cowboys are 23rd, so that’s not surprising. It’s true that you have to beat who’s in front of you, and in Darnold’s defense he put up big numbers against three of the league’s bottom-feeders, which is exactly what good QBs do against the league’s bottom-feeders. But I would strongly dispute the idea that he “hasn’t had a bad game since,” especially because his two no-shows in that stretch came against the two worst pass defenses in the league. And more to the point, if we’re talking improvement and prospects for next season—the one where Darnold is presumably going to make the leap—the curve he’s on right now looks pretty grim considering we have to play San Francisco and travel to L.A., Seattle, and Kansas City. 

[ZachEY]

1 minute ago, flgreen said:

This fanbase is tough.  LOL

Darnold didn't have a great day today, but he got the job done. 

We used 4 high picks to acquire a QB who, late in his second season, "didn't have a great day today" against the league worst pass defense, a historically bad pass defense, on a team that is tanking.

But, there's really no reason for a Darnold debate today.  He's about to go up against the 3rd, 4th, and 5th pass defenses, respectively.  Lets see how he finishes the season.  My guess is the excuses are pre-written.

[Jetscode1]

Darnold delivers a Jets win!  Go Jets!

[Barry McCockinner]

2 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

We used 4 high picks to acquire a QB who, late in his second season, "didn't have a great day today" against the league worst pass defense, a historically bad pass defense, on a team that is tanking.

But, there's really no reason for a Darnold debate today.  He's about to go up against the 3rd, 4th, and 5th pass defenses, respectively.  Lets see how he finishes the season.  My guess is the excuses are pre-written.

But he's only 22?

[HawkeyeJet]

37 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

Pass Defense DVOA ranks of Darnold opponents, Weeks 1-8: 5th, 23rd, 2nd, 16th

Pass Defense DVOA ranks of Darnold opponents, weeks 9-14: 32nd, 30th, 20th,  28th, 31st, 32nd

So I've been diving into this DVOA stuff a lot in the past few weeks.  Fairly new to the concept.  I'm very big into analytics in Baseball and think they are very useful.

That said, from what I have read, I don't really understand how DVOA doesn't allow for surrounding cast to drag down the rating of others.  Whether it be the WR impacting the QB negatively or vice versa.  Or the OL impacting an RV etc etc.  How does it account for that?  I can't tell if it does or not.

All I could tell is all of the Jets players on offense are rated very poorly.  

[14 in Green]

2 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

The Cowboys are 23rd, so that’s not surprising. It’s true that you have to beat who’s in front of you, and in Darnold’s defense he put up big numbers against three of the league’s bottom-feeders, which is exactly what good QBs do against the league’s bottom-feeders. But I would strongly dispute the idea that he “hasn’t had a bad game since,” especially because his two no-shows in that stretch came against the two worst pass defenses in the league. And more to the point, if we’re talking improvement and prospects for next season—the one where Darnold is presumably going to make the leap—the curve he’s on right now looks pretty grim considering we have games against San Francisco and in L.A., Seattle, and Kansas City. 

Next seasons schedule is a beast.

This was the year we had the easy one. Everything that’s transpired though makes it look like it will end up another 5-11 season, picking around 6th again.

Next year could be worse.

[slimjasi]

Just now, dbatesman said:

The Cowboys are 23rd, so that’s not surprising. It’s true that you have to beat who’s in front of you, and in Darnold’s defense he put up big numbers against three of the league’s bottom-feeders, which is exactly what good QBs do against the league’s bottom-feeders. But I would strongly dispute the idea that he “hasn’t had a bad game since,” especially because his two no-shows in that stretch came against the two worst pass defenses in the league. And more to the point, if we’re talking improvement and prospects for next season—the one where Darnold is presumably going to make the leap—the curve he’s on right now looks pretty grim considering we have games against San Francisco and in L.A., Seattle, and Kansas City. 

The Bengal game was a meh game for the QB. The offensive line was non-competitive for much of that game. No pass protection and killer, drive-destroying penalties. I didn't think Darnold was good, but I didn't think he was bad, either. I thought the offensive line was non-competitive. 

When was the other "no show," today? I can't call today a no-show. Threw for 270 yards, 2 TDs and drove the team down the field FTW. I think the poster who wrote that he was "uneven" put it very well. He didn't play very well, but he did his job. I can't call it "bad"

[14 in Green]

1 minute ago, Barry McCockinner said:

But he's only 22?

Don’t worry about that. He was a linebacker.

[dbatesman]

5 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

The Bengal game was a meh game for the QB. The offensive line was non-competitive for much of that game. No pass protection and killer, drive-destroying penalties. I didn't think Darnold was good, but I didn't think he was bad, either. I thought the offensive line was non-competitive. 

When was the other "no show," today? I can't call today a no-show. Threw for 270 yards, 2 TDs and drove the team down the field FTW. I think the poster who wrote that he was "uneven" put it very well. He didn't play very well, but he did his job. I can't call it "bad"

The other one was the first Miami game, in which he put up 18 points against a historically bad pass defense and threw a goal-line pick that would make Geno Smith blush to boot. If you don’t count that or the Cincinnati game as bad, then we’re grading things so differently that I’m not sure we have much to say to each other.

[Guilhermezmc]

4 hours ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Darnold was awful today.

A good qb would have won that game by 3 tds.

how dare you, he's just a 22 year old bret favre

[playtowinthegame]

3 hours ago, CTM said:

1st Rd KO

[ZachEY]

5 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

The other one was the first Miami game, in which he put up 18 points against a historically bad pass defense and threw a goal-line pick that would make Geno Smith blush to boot. If you don’t count that or the Cincinnati game as bad, then we’re grading things so differently that I’m not sure we have much to say to each other.

I don't know about this poster in particular, but a good portion of fans will not consider any negatives against Darnold this season, because, either Darnold was good, or Darnold could not have been good because of the line, the WRs, Gase, or his age.

[Jets723]

1 minute ago, TeddEY said:

I don't know about this poster in particular, but a good portion of fans will not consider any negatives against Darnold this season, because, either Darnold was good, or Darnold could not have been good because of the line, the WRs, Gase, or his age.

That’s not true at all.  Nobody is calling Darnold a superstar or anything crazy like that.  Most have been fair about things he needs to work on. We all agree that when throws off his back foot it usually is a turnover...that has to stop.  However the kid has also shown a lot of good flashes.  But it isn’t an excuse to see that so far in his career he has had an awful oline that’s pretty much a fact.  When the oline does actually give him decent protection he plays well.  

[dbatesman]

15 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

So I've been diving into this DVOA stuff a lot in the past few weeks.  Fairly new to the concept.  I'm very big into analytics in Baseball and think they are very useful.

That said, from what I have read, I don't really understand how DVOA doesn't allow for surrounding cast to drag down the rating of others.  Whether it be the WR impacting the QB negatively or vice versa.  Or the OL impacting an RV etc etc.  How does it account for that?  I can't tell if it does or not.

All I could tell is all of the Jets players on offense are rated very poorly.  

FO acknowledges this: 

Quote

Football is a game in which nearly every action requires the work of two or more teammates -- in fact, usually 11 teammates all working in unison. Unfortunately, when it comes to individual player ratings, we are still far from the point at which we can determine the value of a player independent from the performance of his teammates. That means that when we say, "In 2014, Marshawn Lynch had a DVOA of 23.1%, what we are really saying is “In 2014, Marshawn Lynch, playing in Darrell Bevell’s offensive system with the Seattle offensive line blocking for him and Russell Wilson selling the keeper when necessary, had a DVOA of 23.1%."

I don’t think anyone would argue that the Jets’ roster, especially on offense, is putrid, which is why I’m not giving up on Darnold entirely just yet. But the numbers are what they are. He’s currently 31st in both DVOA and DYAR. Say we add CeeDee Lamb, another wideout in FA, and like three new offensive linemen. Does that get him into the top ten? That’s basically what we’re banking on.

[slimjasi]

11 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

The other one was the first Miami game, in which he put up 18 points against a historically bad pass defense and threw a goal-line pick that would make Geno Smith blush to boot. If you don’t count that or the Cincinnati game as bad, then we’re grading things so differently that I’m not sure we have much to say to each other.

You are correct, we are grading things very differently. 

Darnold had one brutal throw in the first Miami game. Overall, he was 27-39 for 260 yards, with 1 TD and 1 INT. He was meh. This, by the way, was another game in which the offensive line was non-competitive, particularly in the second half.

The team has had four disastrous performances this season (@ NE, @Philly, home NE, and @cincy). In each of them, the offensive line was non-competitive. 

In one of them, the QB was both non-competitive and historically bad. (Home NE)

[dbatesman]

2 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

You are correct, we are grading things very differently. 

Darnold had one brutal throw in the first Miami game. Overall, he was 27-39 for 260 yards, with 1 TD and 1 INT. He was meh. This, by the way, was another game in which the offensive line was non-competitive, particularly in the second half.

The team has had four disastrous performances this season (@ NE, @Philly, home NE, and @cincy). In each of them, the offensive line was non-competitive. 

In one of them, the QB was both non-competitive and historically bad. (Home NE)

Darnold’s performance in the first Miami game was the worst by any QB that week: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2019/week-8-quick-reads

[ZachEY]

3 minutes ago, Jets723 said:

That’s not true at all.  

Yes it is, I even started a thread on this concept previously, and many acknowledged there was nothing that Darnold could do to change their positive opinion on him.

Quote

Nobody is calling Darnold a superstar or anything crazy like that.  

This is also false.  Go look at Nico's posts, or this post from 3 hours ago:

Quote

We all agree that when throws off his back foot it usually is a turnover...that has to stop.  

Ok, but that's typically excused as due to the pressure, and not because that's what Sam Darnold just does, despite it being what he did in college too.

Quote

However the kid has also shown a lot of good flashes.  

Has he though?  A lot?  Or, has he shown flashes of adequacy to pretty good, mostly against the worst pass defenses in the NFL?

Quote

But it isn’t an excuse to see that so far in his career he has had an awful oline that’s pretty much a fact.  When the oline does actually give him decent protection he plays well.  

It is a fact that he has a bad offensive line, and no one who thinks he has a long way to go, if he ever gets there denies that.  But, its also not true that he can be counted on to play well when protected.  He misses plenty of throws, and plenty of open WRs when he has time.

I'll eagerly await another buttfumble from you, though I appreciate you actually trying this time.

[slimjasi]

2 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

Darnold’s performance in the first Miami game was the worst by any QB that week: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2019/week-8-quick-reads

I'm confused. 

Those are stats from the Jaguars game. 

[dbatesman]

2 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I'm confused. 

Those are stats from the Jaguars game. 

Sorry—wrong link. Same point. 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2019/week-9-quick-reads

 

[slimjasi]

3 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

Sorry—wrong link. Same point. 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2019/week-9-quick-reads

 

Gets penalized a lot for the sacks, which were the result of some absolutely brutal offensive line play. 

I didn't think he was "bad" in that game.

I thought he had a brutal throw, and that once again, the offensive line gave them very little chance to function in that game. 

 

[dbatesman]

1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

Gets penalized a lot for the sacks, which were the result of some absolutely brutal offensive line play. 

I didn't think he was "bad" in that game.

I thought he had a brutal throw, and that once again, the offensive line gave them very little chance to function in that game. 

 

Ok. Agree to disagree

[ZachEY]

3 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Gets penalized a lot for the sacks, which were the result of some absolutely brutal offensive line play. 

I didn't think he was "bad" in that game.

I thought he had a brutal throw, and that once again, the offensive line gave them very little chance to function in that game. 

 

Even if you minimize the importance of these stats, does it trouble you that he's last, with some frequency, when the same formulas are applied across the board?

[fusionCA]

I hear a lot that darnold need better coaching and better supporting cast .

Well we know he will not get better coaching , gase will be here next year which will be another lost year for darnold to improve .

 

How long do we have to wait until the right coaching will come ?

It might never will with the way the Johnson's are running this team 

[Augustiniak]

52 minutes ago, flgreen said:

This fanbase is tough.  LOL

This is a 22 YO kid out there.  He's behind a horrible OL.  When the season opened this was a VERY weak roster.  The Jets lead the league in players on IR.  More importantly  they also lead the league, by a big margin, in cap space used by players on IR.  Arguably,  the Jets two best players , didn't play today.

Darnold didn't have a great day today, but he got the job done.  He has almost no talent in skill position players, and a horrible OL.  

Under the conditions I thought he had a pretty good day.  Rest of the schedule looks pretty grim, but in all honesty I'm not unhappy with Darnold. 

 

I have dreamt for the days when 20-36 for 270 yards, 2 tds and 1 int is considered bad qb play.

[Pac]

It's ok to think you have a QB that can be very good but acknowledge when he does stupid sh-t and plays like a moron.  Favre is the poster child for that.

Yes Darnold has been dealt a bad hand and played really well at times this year.

Yes I think he can be a franchise QB.

Yes he needs to learn how to run the ball when he has 15 yards of open field in front of him

Yes he needs to do a better job of throwing accurate passes to wide open receivers.

It's not that hard..

Only a sith and dumpers speak in absolutes.

[slimjasi]

Just now, dbatesman said:

Ok. Agree to disagree

Listen, let's pretend that we agree on Darnold being bad in the first Miami game. 

 

I think my overall feeling on Darnold is that he is performing reasonably well on a bottom 3 to 5 NFL roster and that he has had some elite performances along the way that make me think he is a QB prospect worth moving forward with. He's easily better than Sanchez, who got three full years as the unquestioned starter here because he was lucky enough to be surrounded by a top 10 roster. 

I don't think he's established that he's going to be a long term guy yet, but he's done nothing to make me think that he eventually won't be. 

 

[Jets723]

Just now, slimjasi said:

Listen, let's pretend that we agree on Darnold being bad in the first Miami game. 

 

I think my overall feeling on Darnold is that he is performing reasonably well on a bottom 3 to 5 NFL roster and that he has had some elite performances along the way that make me think he is a QB prospect worth moving forward with. He's easily better than Sanchez, who got three full years as the unquestioned starter here because he was lucky enough to be surrounded by a top 10 roster. 

I don't think he's established that he's going to be a long term guy yet, but he's done nothing to make me think that he eventually won't be. 

 

Agreed with your whole post

[ZachEY]

5 minutes ago, fusionCA said:

I hear a lot that darnold need better coaching and better supporting cast .

Well we know he will not get better coaching , gase will be here next year which will be another lost year for darnold to improve .

 

How long do we have to wait until the right coaching will come ?

It might never will with the way the Johnson's are running this team 

If we ever stop blowing draft after draft, I think we’ll suddenly and magically start seeing better coaching.

[ZachEY]

3 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Listen, let's pretend that we agree on Darnold being bad in the first Miami game. 

 

I think my overall feeling on Darnold is that he is performing reasonably well on a bottom 3 to 5 NFL roster and that he has had some elite performances along the way that make me think he is a QB prospect worth moving forward with. He's easily better than Sanchez, who got three full years as the unquestioned starter here because he was lucky enough to be surrounded by a top 10 roster. 

I don't think he's established that he's going to be a long term guy yet, but he's done nothing to make me think that he eventually won't be. 

 

You can be both, easily better than Sanchez, and, the worst QB in the league.

Not calling Darnold the worst QB in the league, just saying you can be both.

[CrazyCarl40]

8 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

I have dreamt for the days when 20-36 for 270 yards, 2 tds and 1 int is considered bad qb play.

Against a top defense? Sure. Against one of the worst in the league? You expect better, especially since it’s the second time playing them. I think the divide here isn’t good vs. bad. It’s about going from good to great. Taking the next step. Making progress. Not underperforming back to back weeks against bottom of the barrel teams. 

[HawkeyeJet]

3 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

If we ever stop blowing draft after draft, I think we’ll suddenly and magically start seeing better coaching.

So do you think Adam Gase is a good coach?  I know your thoughts on Darnold, I don't recall seeing your opinion on Gase though.

[Augustiniak]

Just now, CrazyCarl40 said:

Against a top defense? Sure. Against one of the worst in the league? You expect better, especially since it’s the second time playing them. I think the divide here isn’t good vs. bad. It’s about going from good to great. Taking the next step. Making progress. Not underperforming back to back weeks against bottom of the barrel teams. 

Progress is not going to be continuous every week where it’s a little better each time.  We should expect uneven performances for a while.  But if a bad game is 270 yards, 2 tds and 1 pick, that’s progress, and that’s how you have to view it.  

The main thing that darnold seems to have problems with is how to lead Anderson on deeper throws.  Most of the time he underthrows him, and then he overcompensated on that end zone throw and over threw him.  Most of his bad throws today seemed to be b/c he can’t figure out his speed.  

[bla bla bla]

3 hours ago, Matt39 said:

The Miami Dolphins defense has been historically bad this season. That performance in the second half was alarming. At Baltimore on a short week would be tough for any QB- if Darnold plays like that on Thursday he's going to get destroyed.

The covering of the ears and saying "He's a franchise QB" doesnt help anyone. He's currently what- maybe in the top 20 of NFL QB's? He's certainly in the lower tier of the younger guys.

Jameis Winston threw for like 500 yards today and 4 TD's and the league views him as a joke and we have fanboys here worshipping Darnold? Come on now. Have higher expectations. He's playing the most important position in sports. Wanting/expecting a sure thing at the position is a good thing.

I'd take Sam over Jameis Winston any day, am I a fan boy? Sure but if you give Sam an OL, OJ Howard and Mike Evans, I think he would be legit.