Week 14 QB performances and putting Darnold in perspective

[jetstream23]

Maybe it's some type of brainwashing from announcers, the national media or even Jets fans who are Darnold haters.  Or, perhaps it's a North Korean disinformation campaign or something, but here are some QB ratings from yesterday.  The fact that a Jets team can win with a mediocre (but not bad) performance from their Quarterback against anybody, even the Dolphins who were 3-2 in their past 5 games coming into yesterday, should be a positive....yet the Board has felt like a funeral the past 24 hours.

 

[sec101row23]

I think people are looking way too hard into every throw, every read, every decision that Darnold makes under a microscope. IMO, you need a macro approach to this thing right now and realize what the total situation is with this offense.  He’s going to miss throws, he’s going miss reads and he’s going to make a bad decision here and there.  It’s not like he went 11 for 28 125 yards 0TDs and 3 INTs.  When you factor in that this team hasn’t been able to run the ball and his receivers have catch radius’s of about one foot, it forces Darnold to have to be almost perfect with every throw in order for his receivers to make a completion.  

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, sec101row23 said:

I think people are looking way too hard into every throw, every read, every decision that Darnold makes under a microscope. IMO, you need a macro approach to this thing right now and realize what the total situation is with this offense.  He’s going to miss throws, he’s going miss reads and he’s going to make a bad decision here and there.  It’s not like he went 11 for 28 125 yards 0TDs and 3 INTs.  When you factor in that this teams hasn’t been able to run the ball and his receivers have catch radius’s of about one foot, it forces Darnold to have to be almost perfect with every throw in order for his receivers to make a completion.  

this.  any time he misses a wr everyone is trashing him.  at this point i think the fairest criticisms of him are that he still forces some throws, and that he still underthrows robbie anderson and leaves some points on the field.  he just doesn't seem to understand how fast anderson is, and that overthrow in the end zone shows that darnold is trying to overcompensate for underthrowing him sometimes.

[Untouchable]

Trade Jamal to Dallas for their 1st and 3rd, sign Scherff and Thuney in FA, re-sign Beachum to a 2 year deal, offer Robby 3 years/$30 million, draft CeeDee Lamb, Tyler Biadasz and Trey Adams in the first 2 rounds, sit back and enjoy as Darnold becomes a 4500 yard 35+ TD QB for the next 15 years.

[sec101row23]

7 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

this.  any time he misses a wr everyone is trashing him.  at this point i think the fairest criticisms of him are that he still forces some throws, and that he still underthrows robbie anderson and leaves some points on the field.  he just doesn't seem to understand how fast anderson is, and that overthrow in the end zone shows that darnold is trying to overcompensate for underthrowing him sometimes.

Agreed.  I don’t mind his aggressive nature because once he has the pieces around him that will pay off.  Who on this team is a true red zone threat?  Who can even run a simple fade to the corner of the end zone?  Who can win on those 50/50 balls?  This is just a soft group of receivers.   I

[Augustiniak]

12 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

Agreed.  I don’t mind his aggressive nature because once he has the pieces around him that will pay off.  Who on this team is a true red zone threat?  Who can even run a simple fade to the corner of the end zone?  Who can win on those 50/50 balls?  This is just a soft group of receivers.   I

another thing yesterday, he missed griffen.  he likes throwing to tight ends.  there are only so many pieces you can keep removing from the offense.  yesterday no bell no griffen.

[Barry McCockinner]

1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

Maybe it's some type of brainwashing from announcers, the national media or even Jets fans who are Darnold haters.  Or, perhaps it's a North Korean disinformation campaign or something, but here are some QB ratings from yesterday.  The fact that a Jets team can win with a mediocre (but not bad) performance from their Quarterback against anybody, even the Dolphins who were 3-2 in their past 5 games coming into yesterday, should be a positive....yet the Board has felt like a funeral the past 24 hours.

 

I'm curious where you got this list from? I noticed it's missing at least Tannehill who I've been paying attention to.

Is this just the bottom 13 QB's from w14?

[Warfish]

1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

Maybe it's some type of brainwashing from announcers, the national media or even Jets fans who are Darnold haters.  Or, perhaps it's a North Korean disinformation campaign or something, but here are some QB ratings from yesterday.  The fact that a Jets team can win with a mediocre (but not bad) performance from their Quarterback against anybody, even the Dolphins who were 3-2 in their past 5 games coming into yesterday, should be a positive....yet the Board has felt like a funeral the past 24 hours.

I don't think it's brainwashing or announcers or Jets Fans being "haters".

Winning a single very close game vs one of the worst teams in the NFL being led by a mostly hated former jets QB was great.  Vastly better than losing it!  Being swept by the Fitz-led Dolphins, the 3-9 tanking Dolphins, would have been tragic and painful, hated rival that they are.

I think we just have two schools of thought right now on Darnold.  True believers and doubting questioners.  So far, seems like the true believers really hate the questioners for their doubts, and want them silenced here at JN as "trolls".  Believers see yesterday as a good thing. Questioners see it as a game we should and could have dominated, and didn't, mostly because of specific missed throws and opportunities by the QB.

But I'll say what I've said repeatedly:  Most questioners of Darnold do not want to cut him, or move on from him.  They (as I do) want to see more, and with a better supporting cast, especially at the O-line.  But they also want to see more from Sam himself, more consistency, better mechanics, better decision making.  Questioners don't think his being 22 or in his second year is as meaningful as believers do.  The job is the job, he has to do it and gets paid to do it, if he wasn't ready to do so (because he's too young or because he was a LB years ago), that's not an excuse.  He was picked #3 overall to play QB in the NFL right away.  Not to learn on the job for his entire rookie contract.

Make no mistake, there is a clock on Darnold.  At the end of his rookie deal, he is either resigned to a big dollar deal (limiting the team) or is cut loose (costing the team another draft pick to get another QB instead).  Year's 1 and 2 are effectively done now, wasted in terms of competition. 

We're going to be in year 3 of 5, facing what appears to be a full blown rebuild yet again.  We have two (maybe three) seasons of cheap Darnold left.  After more than a decade of the Jets being utterly noncompetitive, it's natural some fans are tired of the "well, in a few years maybe..." answers that we seem to get from believers every year around this time.  

It's amazing, as a fan base, we're all as sane and optimistic as we are.  

[Jetster]

44 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

I think people are looking way too hard into every throw, every read, every decision that Darnold makes under a microscope. IMO, you need a macro approach to this thing right now and realize what the total situation is with this offense.  He’s going to miss throws, he’s going miss reads and he’s going to make a bad decision here and there.  It’s not like he went 11 for 28 125 yards 0TDs and 3 INTs.  When you factor in that this team hasn’t been able to run the ball and his receivers have catch radius’s of about one foot, it forces Darnold to have to be almost perfect with every throw in order for his receivers to make a completion.  

Catch radius of 1 foot. I spit out my coffee.

Its true though. Watch a guy like Amari Cooper attack a ball, it's night & day from what we see here. I'm so on this Cooper kid if somehow Dallas can't sign him. You look around the league at teams needing WRs, and going to the Jets with a young developing QB ain't like coming here with Sanchez, Fitz or Geno. Like I said before, Jets could have a player like Ceedee Lamb fall to them. You give Darnold Coop, Ceedee, Crowder, Herndon, revamped Oline? Going to Metlife could be damn fun in 2020. 

[peebag]

45 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

Trade Jamal to Dallas for their 1st and 3rd, sign Scherff and Thuney in FA, re-sign Beachum to a 2 year deal, offer Robby 3 years/$30 million, draft CeeDee Lamb, Tyler Biadasz and Trey Adams in the first 2 rounds, sit back and enjoy as Darnold becomes a 4500 yard 35+ TD QB for the next 15 years.

We won't be able to afford both.

[Maxman]

1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

Maybe it's some type of brainwashing from announcers, the national media or even Jets fans who are Darnold haters.  Or, perhaps it's a North Korean disinformation campaign or something, but here are some QB ratings from yesterday.  The fact that a Jets team can win with a mediocre (but not bad) performance from their Quarterback against anybody, even the Dolphins who were 3-2 in their past 5 games coming into yesterday, should be a positive....yet the Board has felt like a funeral the past 24 hours.

 

Rating? QB Rating? You talking QB Rating?  QB Rating DOES NOT Take into account exit velocity. It DOES NOT help with the shift. If we are going by QBR alone then your 3rd basemen is playing 3rd base the whole game. We all know the 3rd basemen is the shortstop 27% of the time. The short stop is now like a 10th player in softball playing some kind of 2nd base\ centerfield combo. And the 2nd baseman, he plays in right field now.

So don't bring QBR to me because that is like so 2017. The eye test means nothing either. The Jets should have kept Ryan Fitzpatrick and I have the t-shirt to prove it.

I am kidding, people on both sides will hate me for this, just having fun.

I agree with the first post. I like Sam and he will be back here with Gase next year for better or worse. But I am excited about the future with Darnold as the Jets QB. They have to improve the running game. They have to improve the oline. They have to get another receiver in here, D Thomas has had too many big drops.

Thanks for the breakdown @jetstream23!

[Losmeister]

1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

Maybe it's some type of brainwashing from announcers, the national media or even Jets fans who are Darnold haters.  Or, perhaps it's a North Korean disinformation campaign or something, but here are some QB ratings from yesterday.  The fact that a Jets team can win with a mediocre (but not bad) performance from their Quarterback against anybody, even the Dolphins who were 3-2 in their past 5 games coming into yesterday, should be a positive....yet the Board has felt like a funeral the past 24 hours.

 

i keep saying getting to the middle of the league is the first step...       

[Maxman]

1 hour ago, Untouchable said:

Trade Jamal to Dallas for their 1st and 3rd, sign Scherff and Thuney in FA, re-sign Beachum to a 2 year deal, offer Robby 3 years/$30 million, draft CeeDee Lamb, Tyler Biadasz and Trey Adams in the first 2 rounds, sit back and enjoy as Darnold becomes a 4500 yard 35+ TD QB for the next 15 years.

Not sure they can get both olineman but sign me up for this plan, let's go for sure! I think the Honey Badger is going in the first round, they can take him with the Cowboys pick.

[bitonti]

that game felt like a loss because it essentially WAS a loss ... 

until that PI call magically came down from league office on high 

Sun Ra Robby put the team on his back last drive, and Sam started to play better but let's be real that game is a 21-18 loss without that crazy call 

and we can't count on the Jets getting crazy bail out calls from NY league office against decent opposition 

[ZachEY]

1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

Maybe it's some type of brainwashing from announcers, the national media or even Jets fans who are Darnold haters.  Or, perhaps it's a North Korean disinformation campaign or something, but here are some QB ratings from yesterday.  The fact that a Jets team can win with a mediocre (but not bad) performance from their Quarterback against anybody, even the Dolphins who were 3-2 in their past 5 games coming into yesterday, should be a positive....yet the Board has felt like a funeral the past 24 hours.

 

So, either Darnold > Mahomes, Wilson, Watson, and Brady, or there's something deeply flawed about this analysis.

Which one are you going with?

[jetstream23]

24 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I'm curious where you got this list from? I noticed it's missing at least Tannehill who I've been paying attention to.

Is this just the bottom 13 QB's from w14?

Oh, it's missing a lot of guys.  I showed where Darnold started and the list going down.  The data is also "noisy" because you'll see Emmanuel Sanders had a perfect QB rating on his one pass....

http://www.nfl.com/stats/weeklyleaders?d-446412-s=PASSING_PASSER_RATING&season=2019&d-446412-n=1&d-446412-o=2&d-446412-p=1&showCategory=Passing&type=REG&week=14

In terms of QBs Darnold was about middle of the pack.  My point was that if you didn't see the game and just read this Forum or the game day thread you'd think he had an atrocious game.

[thshadow]

27 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I'm curious where you got this list from? I noticed it's missing at least Tannehill who I've been paying attention to.

Is this just the bottom 13 QB's from w14?

It looks like he just picked out some of the QBs.  

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/weekly/?sortStatId=QB_RATING&selectedTable=0

Darnold was 16th among QBs that had more than 5 attempts.  But obviously his rating was higher than a lot of big names this past week.

 

[jetstream23]

12 minutes ago, Maxman said:

Rating? QB Rating? You talking QB Rating?  QB Rating DOES NOT Take into account exit velocity. It DOES NOT help with the shift. If we are going by QBR alone then your 3rd basemen is playing 3rd base the whole game. We all know the 3rd basemen is the shortstop 27% of the time. The short stop is now like a 10th player in softball playing some kind of 2nd base\ centerfield combo. And the 2nd baseman, he plays in right field now.

So don't bring QBR to me because that is like so 2017. The eye test means nothing either. The Jets should have kept Ryan Fitzpatrick and I have the t-shirt to prove it.

I am kidding, people on both sides will hate me for this, just having fun.

I agree with the first post. I like Sam and he will be back here with Gase next year for better or worse. But I am excited about the future with Darnold as the Jets QB. They have to improve the running game. They have to improve the oline. They have to get another receiver in here, D Thomas has had too many big drops.

Thanks for the breakdown @jetstream23!

Wait until I tell you about Baker Mayfield's perfect QB Rating when playing in games during a full moon while the Browns are wearing their All Whites against non-AFC teams!

[jetstream23]

Just now, thshadow said:

It looks like he just picked out some of the QBs.  

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/weekly/?sortStatId=QB_RATING&selectedTable=0

Darnold was 16th among QBs that had more than 5 attempts.  But obviously his rating was higher than a lot of big names this past week.

 

Started with Darnold who was middle of the pack and the list is sorted by Rating.  Didn't pick and choose, just started with Sam and the list as it went down.

[Barry McCockinner]

4 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Oh, it's missing a lot of guys.  I showed where Darnold started and the list going down.  The data is also "noisy" because you'll see Emmanuel Sanders had a perfect QB rating on his one pass....

http://www.nfl.com/stats/weeklyleaders?d-446412-s=PASSING_PASSER_RATING&season=2019&d-446412-n=1&d-446412-o=2&d-446412-p=1&showCategory=Passing&type=REG&week=14

In terms of QBs Darnold was about middle of the pack.  My point was that if you didn't see the game and just read this Forum or the game day thread you'd think he had an atrocious game.

It's a fair point but the screen cap in the OP seems misleading. At first glance I thought he had the best QB rating of the week.

[thshadow]

8 minutes ago, bitonti said:

without that crazy call 

Not sure how you can call it a "crazy" call.  The announcers in the booth and Gene Stenatore both said that it would clearly be overturned, and then it was.  An NFL receiver would have clearly made the catch without the defender pulling down his shoulder before the ball arrived.  (The fact that the Jets don't have NFL receivers is not supposed to be taken into account.)

 

[ZachEY]

Just now, Barry McCockinner said:

It's a fair point but the screen cap in the OP seems misleading.

That's the point.

[Warfish]

19 minutes ago, Maxman said:

The Jets should have kept Ryan Fitzpatrick and I have the t-shirt to prove it.

Sig-worthy. 

[Jets723]

The problem is that many fans want Sam to be phenomenal for the get go, which I understand.  Many fans keep bringing up Mahomes because we could have drafted him.  Mahomes is talented but let’s be honest he was brought into a great situation.  He already had a great team and great coach and that helps....Sam doesn’t have that yet.  I mean even Mark Sanchez went to back to back AFC title games because he had a good team around him.  I try to be fair with Sam.  I’ve been fair about the things he needs to work on but at the same time I think we need to wait until he had better protection/weapons before we can make a determination one way or another 
 

[jetstream23]

5 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

So, either Darnold > Mahomes, Wilson, Watson, and Brady, or there's something deeply flawed about this analysis.

Which one are you going with?

 

I'm going with the fact that it was one game, that Darnold wasn't horrible yesterday (as many have said), and that even excellent Quarterbacks have bad games.  He was very average yesterday.  In fact, he was exactly average as I think he was the 16th overall QB in Rating.  2 TDs, 1 INT, 270 yards and a win....but most of yesterday's game day thread was focused on missing WRs and throwing off the back foot.  Not that those latter things aren't important, they are.  But this is a 5-win Jets team and my commentary is more about a fan base that not only hates the losses we've had but that can't even enjoy a win anymore.  If Week 1's one-point loss to the Bills was a train wreck for our fans then yesterday's one-point win still seems like a car crash for some reason.  Sam made some mistakes and had some misses, he also won the game, had more TDs than INTs, and lead an offense that tried to run but still only averaged around 3.9 yards per carry for Powell.

[Augustiniak]

Just now, Jets723 said:

The problem is that many fans want Dam to be phenomenal for the get go, which I understand.  Many fans keep bringing up Mahomes because we could have drafted him.  Mahomes is talented but let’s be honest he was brought into a great situation.  He already had a great team and great coach and that helps....Sam doesn’t have that yet.  I mean even Mark Sanchez went to back to back AFC title games because he had a good team around him.  I try to be fair with Sam.  I’ve been fair about the things he needs to work on but at the same time I think we need to wait until he had better protection/weapons before we can make a determination one way or another 
 

mahomes also has hill and kelse, two all pros to throw to.  how often do you see these guys torching other teams.  then when a jet makes a play, some here discredit what darnold did to get him the ball.  darnold is not superman, he needs help here.  yesterday he didn't even have griffen or bell.  how many more people can they take away from his offense and he still goes 20-36 for 270 yards with 2 tds and a pick, and so many here are calling this a bad game.  i'm thrilled this is a bad game.  

[Barry McCockinner]

2 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

mahomes also has hill and kelse, two all pros to throw to.  how often do you see these guys torching other teams.  then when a jet makes a play, some here discredit what darnold did to get him the ball.  darnold is not superman, he needs help here.  yesterday he didn't even have griffen or bell.  how many more people can they take away from his offense and he still goes 20-36 for 270 yards with 2 tds and a pick, and so many here are calling this a bad game.  i'm thrilled this is a bad game.  

Should we bring up Darnold's performance vs. the Pats for a better comparison? The Jets just played against a bottom third of the league pass D.

[Barry McCockinner]

5 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

That's the point.

The point is to be misleading?

[ZachEY]

Just now, jetstream23 said:

 

I'm going with the fact that it was one game, that Darnold wasn't horrible yesterday (as many have said), and that even excellent Quarterbacks have bad games.  He was very average yesterday.  In fact, he was exactly average as I think he was the 16th overall QB in Rating.  2 TDs, 1 INT, 270 yards and a win....but most of yesterday's game day thread was focused on missing WRs and throwing off the back foot.  Not that those latter things aren't important, they are.  But this is a 5-win Jets team and my commentary is more about a fan base that not only hates the losses we've had but that can't even enjoy a win anymore.  If Week 1's one-point loss to the Bills was a train wreck for our fans then yesterday's one-point win still seems like a car crash for some reason.  Sam made some mistakes and had some misses, he also won the game, had more TDs than INTs, and lead an offense that tried to run but still only averaged around 3.9 yards per carry for Powell.

QB rating is only one measurement, and doesn't take into account that Darnold's "average" game, as you're calling it, came against a historically bad pass defense.  Even with the things working against him, versus the 2019 Miami Dolphins, a QB we used 4 high draft picks on should do better at this point in his career.

But, as I've said, there's no need to discuss Sam Darnold today.  The next 3 weeks are against the 3rd, 4th, and 5th pass defenses, not the 31st and 32nd from the past two weeks.  Lets see what happens.

[ZachEY]

Just now, Barry McCockinner said:

The point is to be misleading?

Indeed.

[jetstream23]

5 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

It's a fair point but the screen cap in the OP seems misleading. At first glance I thought he had the best QB rating of the week.

I get it now.  I didn't think anyone would think Darnold had the best Rating of the week.  Guys like Brees, Garrapolo, Rivers, etc. all had amazing games.  The full data set is about 40 players (anyone who threw even a single pass yesterday) and it also doesn't include Wentz or Eli who play tonight.  Here's the full list.  Don't put it in any of the Mayfield threads or some people will lose their sh*t.

I also find the correlation between W's and Rating interesting.  Mayfield is really the only guy in the bottom half of QB Rating that won yesterday.  You need to ignore Cooper Kupp and Ryan Griffin.

[jetstream23]

23 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

i keep saying getting to the middle of the league is the first step...       

Especially on a team where the large majority of Jets offensive starters yesterday would not have started for more than 80% of other NFL teams.

[Matt39]

8 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

 

I'm going with the fact that it was one game, that Darnold wasn't horrible yesterday (as many have said), and that even excellent Quarterbacks have bad games.  He was very average yesterday.  In fact, he was exactly average as I think he was the 16th overall QB in Rating.  2 TDs, 1 INT, 270 yards and a win....but most of yesterday's game day thread was focused on missing WRs and throwing off the back foot.  Not that those latter things aren't important, they are.  But this is a 5-win Jets team and my commentary is more about a fan base that not only hates the losses we've had but that can't even enjoy a win anymore.  If Week 1's one-point loss to the Bills was a train wreck for our fans then yesterday's one-point win still seems like a car crash for some reason.  Sam made some mistakes and had some misses, he also won the game, had more TDs than INTs, and lead an offense that tried to run but still only averaged around 3.9 yards per carry for Powell.

When you factor in the opponent, the performance was at best disappointing. The Miami secondary is bad bad.

[Losmeister]

Just now, jetstream23 said:

Especially on a team where the large majority of Jets offensive starters yesterday would not have started for more than 80% of other NFL teams.

yes.

creep up the QBR chart. hopefully in chunks.

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, jetstream23 said:

Especially on a team where the large majority of Jets offensive starters yesterday would not have started for more than 80% of other NFL teams.

their TE and rb esp. after griffen was hurt, were bottom 3 no doubt.  people expect miracles from darnold, perfect throw after throw after throw.  that OL throwing to robbie anderson, jamison crowder, demarious thomas, bilal powell and vincent smyth.