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Jetsfan80

The JF80 2020 Offseason Plan

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@Jetsfan80

Good job. I just have a couple things that bug me about it that wouldn’t happen (certainly not this way):

1. Trumaine Johnson

He can be and will be cut this offseason. He had 2 years guaranteed, not 3. He is 100% out of here unless his injury is so severe it triggers an $11MM guarantee for 2020, but I don’t think that’ll happen. He’d have to have an ACL injury or a badly broken leg that hasn’t healed yet. Just like Enunwa, whom you may have been keeping because you like him, but so far it looks like his 2020 $ is guaranteed for injury.

2. The OL plan

Edoga can’t even be penciled in as the full season starter at this point; he’s sticking but purely as an ultra-cheap backup in case someone gets injured (which is the only time he should get to prove himself on the field again). He’s terrible, and the only thing keeping him from getting cut is the Jets’ thin depth, his negligible salary, and the knowledge that they drafted him on day 2 just the prior year. That leaves them with just Winters (equally terrible this year) and Harrison (who merely compares favorably to Kalil). 

It’s a subtlety, but unless you’re hanging onto Winters through the draft and then cutting him, I don’t like playing it this way. Winters has no more guaranteed money left. Distaste for him aside, you hang onto him until you first see what you got (past tense) in the draft. Just because you have pick #21 slotted for your handpicked instant-starter upgrade guard doesn’t mean it’ll play out like that; someone may grab him 5 slots earlier for all you know, with the next best guard suitable for zone blocking - which they’ll be giving weight to - is considered really just a 2nd round talent. Also it’s possible they entice Winters to a pay cut in exchange for a guaranteed roster spot, where he’s not making “must start” money anymore. They can put that squeeze on him after the draft when nobody’s still looking to pay a lot for a FA guard like Winters to start for them, coming off a terrible season that again landed him on IR. In other words, there’s no rush to make this move out of the gate, essentially leaving the team with Harrison and nobody else, heading into free agency. 

Also nitpicking further, I think Alex Smith will get better offers than 1 year $1.8MM. He’ll be 28 years old with a few years of starting under his belt (including some games at LT in Baltimore), and in a sense rescued the team from the Osemele debacle. I don’t see why he’d be in line for a pay cut as a UFA, with all the teams that have OL needs. 1 yr $1.8MM is dirt cheap for depth with a veteran backup who, unlike Smith, never sees the field. If someone with a lot of cap room - and zone blocking OL concerns/needs of their own - is willing to fork over at least double that amount, are you still interested in being the highest bidder? 

The swapping Beachum for Peters (also think this is doubtful b/c it seems Gase likes his known-quantity; though Douglas does know Peters from Philly, he’s not the HC and Peters will be 38 with recent history of both back and knee injuries keeping him off the field). Beachum hasn’t been a model of health in his career either, and he’s not been good as a run blocker in a long time. I still think Gase will prefer the devil he knows, whom they could still keep the following year through age 32 if he’s still performing at not-tragic starter levels. However he’d require a contract probably similar to the current one’s structure, with at least some guaranteed $ in 2020, where Peters isn’t getting >1 year from anybody at his age. Personal preference on risk there, I guess, and one that is only a slam dunk to judge in hindsight so I can’t truly knock it. 

I like the idea of going OL-OL with the top 2 picks, and then coming back to OL twice, with the idea that a single later pick has to beat someone out because there are only so many roster spots, plus Edoga has to beat out that many more people for his own roster spot. Plus there’s double the chance you get lucky and strike oil with one of those later picks. I don’t think it’ll play out this way after signing/re-signing 3 veterans, bringing back 2 more, and going OL-OL with the first 2 picks, but I do like going nuclear to fix a problem this big.

3. Robby Anderson will be more to re-sign/extend than $10MM/year with $8MM in guarantees.

The time to extend him in that $9MM-ish per year range - which would still come with more than $8MM in guarantees - has come and gone. The opportunity was there a year ago, when he publicly acknowledged he badly wanted an extension after Enunwa’s and we passed. Now that he’s put all the long term risk on his own shoulders, I don’t think he feels he owes the Jets any hometown discounts to live in this icebox for even more winters. He may have been born in NJ but he’s a Miami guy. If the fins or any FL team offered him nearly that amount - which would even out with the taxes - I don’t think he’d stay up here.

You used Boyd as a contract comparison but it’s not really a comparison unless we also extended Anderson at that time. Boyd signed that contract while he was still under contract, not as a UFA like Anderson will be. There was no competitive bidding for Boyd; the Bengals just had to convince him that sure money now was worth bypassing free agency a year later in case he got badly injured (or had a terrible season because he’s so dependent upon QBs performing and staying healthy). Jets won’t have that luxury of being the only bidder. I don’t think he’s signing for less than $12MM per, with $12-18MM in guarantees, and all it takes is one team with gobs of cap space to see untapped talent and offer him even more than that. 

 

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22 hours ago, RonaldJet said:

Any team with Sam Darnold at QB isn’t going to be good. Until the Jets come to their senses and dump him they will stuck in the mud. He’s Blake Bortles 2.0 and will set this franchise back years.

Anyone else still think this guy is anything but a troll?

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Very interesting plan! I've long been for drafting LT first (and there are several good ones who will have round 1 grades), and at least 3 OL in the full draft, 2 in the first three rounds. And for sure grab a WR in round 2 or 3 b/c the position is loaded. If the Jets can acquire another first rounder, yes, go for 4 OL in the draft, and three in the first 3-4 rounds.

I'd rather just sign one premium OL this offseason and do the rest through the draft and a couple of holdovers serving as "hold the fort" guys. Lewis is a pretty valuable swing depth guy, so try to lock him down. I think Harrison is already signed for next year, so he's C/G depth. Edoga should be looked at as a developmental guy and possible 2020 starter, but not counted on for that.

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On 12/9/2019 at 12:09 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

 

My thinking is Beachum will want too much and Peters, who Douglas knows, will come a lot cheaper as a stopgap starter.  Not that we should be pinching pennies at OT, but if the draft plays out like I hope it will, we should/could end up with a future franchise LT.  We'll see.  

A 2 year $20 million deal is probably enough to resign Beachum he hasn’t been great this season 

 

even if we draft Thomas I’m worried he’s not ready to start 16 games at LT as a rook

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12 hours ago, Philc1 said:

A 2 year $20 million deal is probably enough to resign Beachum he hasn’t been great this season 

If we can bring him back cheaply, I'm on board.  

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On 12/9/2019 at 10:27 AM, Jetsfan80 said:

Joe Dogulas has a ton of decisions to make with the roster this offseason.  Let's try to help him out, shall we?

 

UFA's to allow to walk

  • LT Kelvin Beachum
  • OT Brandon Shell
  • C Ryan Kalil
  • OLB Brandon Copeland
  • G Tom Compton
  • RB Ty Mongtomery
  • OT Brent Qvale
  • TE Daniel Brown
  • ILB James Burgess
  • ILB Paul Worrilow
  • ILB B.J. Bello

UFA's to re-sign

  • WR Robby Anderson:  4 years, $40M with $8M guarantees  (Contract comparison:  Tyler Boyd, Bengals)
  • OLB Jordan Jenkins:  3 years, $19M with $9M in guarantees (Contract comparison:  Kareem Martin, Giants)
  • CB Brian Poole:  3 years, $19M with $7M in guarantees (Contract comparison:  Bryce Callahan, Broncos)
  • WR Demaryius Thomas:  1 year, $5.5M with $4M in guarantees (Contract comparison:  Danny Amendola, Lions)
  • RB Bilal Powell:  2 years, $4.5M with $2M in guarantees (Contract comparison:  Adrian Peterson, Redskins)
  • S Rontez Miles:  2 years, $3.5M with $1.5M in guarantees (Contract comparison:  Terrence Brooks, Patriots)
  • ILB Neville Hewitt:  2 years, $3M with $1M in guarantees (Contract comparison:  Julian Stanford, Bills)
  • OLB Frankie Luvu:  2 years, $3M with $1M in guarantees (Contract comparison:  Aaron Lynch, Bears)
  • P Lac Edwards:  3 years, $7.5M with $2M signing bonus (Contract comparison:  Michael Palardy, Panthers)
  • K Sam Ficken:  3 years, $8M with $1.2M signing bonus (Contract comparison:  Dustin Hopkins, Redskins)
  • G Alex Lewis:  1 year, $1.8M with $750K in guarantees
  • QB David Fales:  1 year, $800K

Key Cuts

  • RG Brian Winters (Cap Savings:  $7.3M)

Trades

  • Jamal Adams and 5th round pick (from Giants) for 2020 1st round pick (# 21), 2020 3rd round pick (# 85), and 2020 4th round pick (# 127)

Key Free Agent Signings

  • OLB Bud Dupree (Steelers) OR OLB Markus Golden (Giants):  4 years, $58M with $16M signing bonus (Contract Comparison:  Za'Darius Smith/Melvin Ingram)
  • CB Ronald Darby (Eagles):  5 years, $56M with $20M in guarantees (Contract comparison:  Stephon Gilmore/Malcolm Butler/Janoris Jenkins)
  • RG Michael Schofield (Chargers):  4 years, $36M with $18M in guarantees (Contract comparison:  Ronald Leary, Broncos)
  • LT Jason Peters (Eagles): 1 year, $9M with $4M in guarantees
  • QB Mike Glennon (Raiders):  2 years, $7M fully guaranteed   @Villain The Foe

Draft Picks

  • 1.9:  OT Andrew Thomas, Georgia OR OT/G Alex Leatherwood, Alabama OR Trade Down
  • 1.21:  C Tyler Biadasz, Wisconsin
  • 2.40:  CB Jeff Gladney, TCU
  • 3.66:  WR Sage Surratt, Wake Forest
  • 3.75:  EDGE Darrell Taylor, Tennessee
  • 4.111:  G Kevin Jarvis, Michigan State
  • 4.127:  OT Yasir Durant, Missouri
  • 5.152:  RB Lamical Perine, Florida
  • 6.206:  QB Shane Buechele, SMU

2020 Roster entering camp

  • QB:  Sam Darnold, Mike Glennon, David Fales, Shane Buechele
  • RB:  Le'Veon Bell, Bilal Powell, Trenton Cannon, Lamical Perine, Josh Adams, Jalin Moore
  • WR:  Robby Anderson, Jamison Crowder, Demaryius Thomas, Quincy Enunwa, Sage Surratt,  Josh Bellamy (ST)
  • TE:  Chris Herndon, Ryan Griffin, Trevon Wesco
  • OT:  Jason Peters, Andrew Thomas/Alex Leatherwood, Yasir Durant, Chuma Edoga
  • G:  Michael Schofield, Alex Lewis, Kevin Jarvis, Connor McDermott
  • C :  Tyler Biadasz, Jonotthan Harrison
  • DL:  Quinnen Williams, Henry Anderson, Steve McLendon, Nathan Shepherd, Folorunso Fatukai, Kyle Phillips
  • ILB:  CJ Mosley, Avery Williamson, Neville Hewitt, Blake Cashman
  • OLB:  Bud Dupree/Markus Golden, Jordan Jenkins, Darrell Taylor, Frankie Luvu, Tarell Basham, Harvey Langi
  • CB:  Ronald Darby, Brian Poole, Blessuan Austin, Trumaine Johnson, Jeff Gladney, Darryl Roberts, Nate Hairston, Arthur Maulet, Kyron Brown
  • S:  Marcus Maye, Rontez Miles, Blake Countess, Matthias Farley
  • K:  Sam Ficken
  • P:  Lac Edwards
  • KR:  Vyncint Smith
  • PR:  Braxton Berrios

I like this for the most part, although I do think some of those resignings are unnecessary; i.e. Powell, Edwards(maybe), and Ficken. I also think, although I have been a huge fan for years, its time to cut Enunwa unless he wants to restructure his contact in some way that makes his salary completely dependent on time on the field. 

While I dont have a problem with devoting most/all of the draft to oline and I do recognize  JD can't fix this entire dumpster fire in one year but my biggest issue with your offseason is at WR. If we go into next year with the same WR unit as this year, thats a big issue for me.

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I like this for the most part, although I do think some of those resignings are unnecessary; i.e. Powell, Edwards(maybe), and Ficken. I also think, although I have been a huge fan for years, its time to cut Enunwa unless he wants to restructure his contact in some way that makes his salary completely dependent on time on the field. 
While I dont have a problem with devoting most/all of the draft to oline and I do recognize  JD can't fix this entire dumpster fire in one year but my biggest issue with your offseason is at WR. If we go into next year with the same WR unit as this year, thats a big issue for me.



I did draft a WR in the 3rd in my “mock”, but I get what you’re saying.

My thinking is this: Go all out to bolster the OL and the WRs will look much better.

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