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38 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Bell is an old back who can’t get through holes, which porks everything you want to do on offense. He’s single-handedly putting Sam Darnold in second and nine all game long. Old backs suck

Maybe. Or maybe the coach is an obstinate dickhead who thinks Frank Gore is the Platonic form of running back, and that's the reason why Bell--far and away the best receiving back in football--is getting 3 fewer targets a game as a receiver on a team whose best pass-catcher is Ryan Griffin than he did on a team whose best pass-catcher was Antonio Brown. 

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32 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Well, I’d say that the passing game was a lot more effective in Pittsburgh than it is here and, sure, Gase should be emphasizing Bell as a receiver because it’d help Darnold, but also Bell looks shot regardless.

Sure—the flipside of the target numbers in Pittsburgh is that they had HOF-caliber talent at QB and WR1, plus an elite offensive line. I thought (and still think) the Bell signing was a huge mistake for a million different reasons. But sometimes it does seem like Gase isn’t even trying with him.

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1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

Then why did he average a paltry 4.0 his last year with the Steelers? 

 

14 minutes ago, CTM said:

In 2017 Bell YPC dropped 20% off his 15/16 average and he was no longer an elite back that year.

(5th in DYAR, 11th in DVOA)

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2 minutes ago, CTM said:

Now we are 2 years later and acting like his clear decline this year is all on Gase rather than a logical continuation of what we saw from 16-> 17

I don’t know who “we” is. I have no doubt he was declining before he put pen to paper with us, which is why I hated the contract from the outset. My point is that given the available options, not using Bell more in the passing game is a huge mistake that has nothing to do with any physical decline on Bell’s part.

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32 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

DB- I don't disagree with anything that you say here (this thread).

Help the uninformed here on DVOA and DYAR:

-Does it distinguish between situations on the football field:

   -Say a run on 3rd and one and the yards gained (where the defense may be stacked in the box)

   -Vs a run on 3rd and long (where the the defense may be laying back and giving up yards

-Does it distinguish yards gained as being different in say carries 1-10 vs 30+ in a game?

I follow the metrics in baseball and find some useful and some garbage. And some no one can explain what they mean and how they are derived. I do not follow it in football.

The Reader's Digest version, please.

 

I don’t think FO slices it quite that thin in terms of personnel, though I could be wrong. They absolutely take down and distance into account, as well as the strength of the opponent. And they do track things like carries 1-10 vs. 30+, though I don’t think they make that data available without a subscription. Essentially what they’re doing is figuring out the expected success rate of a given play in a given scenario against a given defense, and comparing the actual outcome to that. That’s the gist, although they explain it better than I can: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

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