Something's not right

[#27TheDominator]

2 minutes ago, CTM said:

In 2017 Bell YPC dropped 20% off his 15/16 average and he was no longer an elite back that year.

Then he took 18 off

Now hes 3 years removed from elite play, 3 years older at a position known for a short shelf life.

But let's pretend that's not even a possible issue and its all Gase's fault.

Kewl

Wow.  Third in the league in rushing, first team all pro = not elite?  What ******* planet do you come from?  

[Saul Goodman]

Bell’s had plenty of touches.

Including 55 catches through 12 games, several without the starting QB. The line is horrendous and he’s an excellent blocker. We can’t line him up in the slot or wide as much as Pittsburgh did. 

There’s things not to like about Gase, his usage of Bell isn’t one to me. 

[jgb]

Gase and Darnold get a pass because the OL stinks but Bell is an ancient back suited for the glue factory. Riiiiight.

[ID.]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

Then why did he average a paltry 4.0 his last year with the Steelers? 

No idea, perhaps due to the insane number of carries he got that year?   I just think he’s still got some left in the tank, but I don’t think we’ll get a chance to see it in a Jets uniform

[RedBeardedSavage]

Forget hating on Bell or Gase.

The signing hasn’t worked. The offensive line is the primary reason.
 

Don’t be fooled by Powell running decent against a terrible run defense last week. And don’t be fooled by Gase’s seeming mismanagement. 
 

We just don’t have the personnel to make this work. We should part from Bell this offseason for that reason alone and use whatever resources we can get for him to build what we need.

The same should apply for Adams. It doesn’t mean these guys are bad guys; they’re just better off somewhere else. 
 

We’re better off going cheap at RB and S - if we were in a window where we had a legit shot at a division title, I’d say we should keep them both for that window.  But that’s just not the case, and it’s best to be unemotional about it. 

[dbatesman]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

Then why did he average a paltry 4.0 his last year with the Steelers? 

 

14 minutes ago, CTM said:

In 2017 Bell YPC dropped 20% off his 15/16 average and he was no longer an elite back that year.

(5th in DYAR, 11th in DVOA)

[CTM]

2 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Wow.  Third in the league in rushing, first team all pro = not elite?  What ******* planet do you come from?  

The one where I dont care so much about gross #'s. FWIW, I consider elite to be top 3. Bell's 2017 total numbers are inflated by the fact that  he lead the league in attempts by nearly 15%, but his dvoa was 11th and his ypc was in the 20's. I understand that high attempts will drag down efficiency at the position but again, I'm saying he wasnt a top 3 back and was showing signs of decline  not that he wasn't good or even very good l.

Pitts ran him into the ground knowing they might lose him and it's fair to wonder if that burned a significant amount of tread on his tires

 

[CTM]

2 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

 

(5th in DYAR, 11th in DVOA)

Ok, so a guy with a ton of carries in his career hovering around the age when players at his position start to show a sharp decline, shows a decline. 

Now we are 2 years later and acting like his clear decline this year is all on Gase rather than a logical continuation of what we saw from 16-> 17

[Jetster]

1 hour ago, CTM said:

The one where I dont care so much about gross #'s. FWIW, I consider elite to be top 3. Bell's 2017 total numbers are inflated by the fact that  he lead the league in attempts by nearly 15%, but his dvoa was 11th and his ypc was in the 20's. I understand that high attempts will drag down efficiency at the position but again, I'm saying he wasnt a top 3 back and was showing signs of decline  not that he wasn't good or even very good l.

Pitts ran him into the ground knowing they might lose him and it's fair to wonder if that burned a significant amount of tread on his tires

 

Can we also factor in that he has more interests & a lot more Cha Ching in his bank account due to the team that's always ready to pay more or bid against themselves, the NY Jets. I want HUNGRY RBs. Young, looking for a 2nd contract from anyone! 

[dbatesman]

2 minutes ago, CTM said:

Now we are 2 years later and acting like his clear decline this year is all on Gase rather than a logical continuation of what we saw from 16-> 17

I don’t know who “we” is. I have no doubt he was declining before he put pen to paper with us, which is why I hated the contract from the outset. My point is that given the available options, not using Bell more in the passing game is a huge mistake that has nothing to do with any physical decline on Bell’s part.

[CTM]

9 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

I don’t know who “we” is. I have no doubt he was declining before he put pen to paper with us, which is why I hated the contract from the outset. My point is that given the available options, not using Bell more in the passing game is a huge mistake that has nothing to do with any physical decline on Bell’s part.

I'm talking about running game only, agree with you on passing. "We" in this instance is jif and the jiffettes

[Scott Dierking]

21 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

 

(5th in DYAR, 11th in DVOA)

DB- I don't disagree with anything that you say here (this thread).

Help the uninformed here on DVOA and DYAR:

-Does it distinguish between situations on the football field:

   -Say a run on 3rd and one and the yards gained (where the defense may be stacked in the box)

   -Vs a run on 3rd and long (where the the defense may be laying back and giving up yards

-Does it distinguish yards gained as being different in say carries 1-10 vs 30+ in a game?

I follow the metrics in baseball and find some useful and some garbage. And some no one can explain what they mean and how they are derived. I do not follow it in football.

The Reader's Digest version, please.

 

[Losmeister]

16 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

not using Bell more in the passing game is a huge mistake

67 targets

robby has 79

thats plenty...     7.3 yds per ....  23 yd longest gain

feeding him is getting us little

[Losmeister]

2 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

DB- I don't disagree with anything that you say here (this thread).

Help the uninformed here on DVOA and DYAR:

-Does it distinguish between situations on the football field:

   -Say a run on 3rd and one and the yards gained (where the defense may be stacked in the box)

   -Vs a run on 3rd and long (where the the defense may be laying back and giving up yards

-Does it distinguish yards gained as being different in say carries 1-10 vs 30+ in a game?

I follow the metrics in baseball and find some useful and some garbage. And some no one can explain what they mean and how they are derived. I do not follow it in football.

The Reader's Digest version, please.

 

lazy. go read it yourself if you dont comprende

[#27TheDominator]

5 minutes ago, CTM said:

The one where I dont care so much about gross #'s. FWIW, I consider elite to be top 3. Bell's 2017 total numbers are inflated by the fact that  he lead the league in attempts by nearly 15%, but his dvoa was 11th and his ypc was in the 20's. I understand that high attempts will drag down efficiency at the position but again, I'm saying he wasnt a top 3 back and was showing signs of decline  not that he wasn't good or even very good l.

Pitts ran him into the ground knowing they might lose him and it's fair to wonder if that burned a significant amount of tread on his tires

 

You don't think that kind of volume is an asset?  Which 3 backs were better?  Gurley and who?  Maybe Hunt? Ingram?  Those guys didn't exactly play in the same kind of offense.  Elliot had more ypc and ypg, but he missed a bunch of games for domestic violence.  If he wasn't top 3, he certainly was top 5.  He had a higher ypc (your main criteria) than Fournette and McCoy, and .1 less than Jordan Howard. 

The Steelers tagged him and rode him like a rented mule.  That may have taken some tread off his tires, but it wasn't showing yet.  I would argue that if he weren't getting 21+ carries a game he'd have had a significantly higher ypc. 

He led the league in attempts and they gave him week 17 off to rest. Teams knew he was coming, they didn't spell him and he still blew them up for 4+ ypc.  This wasn't Lamont Jordan or Shonn Greene getting 4.7 ypc.   They gave Connor a whopping 34 carries that whole season.  He looked pretty good in the playoffs against a Jacksonville team that was using the Rex Ryan Jets' template.

 

[Scott Dierking]

24 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

lazy. go read it yourself if you dont comprende

Guess you don't know. Thanks.

[#27TheDominator]

I will also add to the whole Bell was declining gang - Connor has not exactly torn it up in his absence which was the initial argument by many. Maybe Pittsburgh's run blocking/offense deteriorated too.  

[CTM]

31 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

DB- I don't disagree with anything that you say here (this thread).

Help the uninformed here on DVOA and DYAR:

-Does it distinguish between situations on the football field:

   -Say a run on 3rd and one and the yards gained (where the defense may be stacked in the box)

   -Vs a run on 3rd and long (where the the defense may be laying back and giving up yards

-Does it distinguish yards gained as being different in say carries 1-10 vs 30+ in a game?

I follow the metrics in baseball and find some useful and some garbage. And some no one can explain what they mean and how they are derived. I do not follow it in football.

The Reader's Digest version, please.

 

I'm going to assume DB -  douche bag so I'll respond

VOA has definitions for what a "succesful play" is that they have calculated has the impact on winning, It's something like 6 yards on first down and goes down from there with the goal being to get a first down. So a run on third and 1, for 2 years and a first down is more valuable than a run on 3rd and 15 than goes for 6 yards and a punt.

It then compares to a calculated average and makes adjustments for things like opponent strength, score etc..

DYAR is their attempt to rectify the bold, recognizing that performing above average for a high number of plays is valuable in and of itself.

[dbatesman]

32 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

DB- I don't disagree with anything that you say here (this thread).

Help the uninformed here on DVOA and DYAR:

-Does it distinguish between situations on the football field:

   -Say a run on 3rd and one and the yards gained (where the defense may be stacked in the box)

   -Vs a run on 3rd and long (where the the defense may be laying back and giving up yards

-Does it distinguish yards gained as being different in say carries 1-10 vs 30+ in a game?

I follow the metrics in baseball and find some useful and some garbage. And some no one can explain what they mean and how they are derived. I do not follow it in football.

The Reader's Digest version, please.

 

I don’t think FO slices it quite that thin in terms of personnel, though I could be wrong. They absolutely take down and distance into account, as well as the strength of the opponent. And they do track things like carries 1-10 vs. 30+, though I don’t think they make that data available without a subscription. Essentially what they’re doing is figuring out the expected success rate of a given play in a given scenario against a given defense, and comparing the actual outcome to that. That’s the gist, although they explain it better than I can: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

[More Cowbell]

5 hours ago, Copernicus said:

Something is so not right with Gase/Bell/and the Jets. As the season is playing out it is becoming more clear that they are not on the same page. From Bell going from top offensive threat in the NFL to lack of carries and involvement in the offense, to the obnoxious amount of carries the RBs got on Sunday without Bell,  to the flu that was serious enough for the Jets to make Bell inactive but not serious enough that he would be able to go bowling. Something is not right here. Is Gase the bad guy for not playing him enough throughout the season? Is Bell the bad guy behind the scenes and the bowling incident and lack of awareness of being scene in public is the start of exposing why Gase seems to not like him?

How do you think this plays out? 

Ya think???

[CTM]

17 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

You don't think that kind of volume is an asset?  Which 3 backs were better?  Gurley and who?  Maybe Hunt? Ingram?  Those guys didn't exactly play in the same kind of offense.  Elliot had more ypc and ypg, but he missed a bunch of games for domestic violence.  If he wasn't top 3, he certainly was top 5.  He had a higher ypc (your main criteria) than Fournette and McCoy, and .1 less than Jordan Howard. 

The Steelers tagged him and rode him like a rented mule.  That may have taken some tread off his tires, but it wasn't showing yet.  I would argue that if he weren't getting 21+ carries a game he'd have had a significantly higher ypc. 

He led the league in attempts and they gave him week 17 off to rest. Teams knew he was coming, they didn't spell him and he still blew them up for 4+ ypc.  This wasn't Lamont Jordan or Shonn Greene getting 4.7 ypc.   They gave Connor a whopping 34 carries that whole season.  He looked pretty good in the playoffs against a Jacksonville team that was using the Rex Ryan Jets' template.

 

I do think it's an asset to have a high DYAR. And I do think he had a good / very good year but I don't think he was "elite" by the way I define it. To me elite is a top 3 guy.  He was that guy in 15 and 16 and slipped a bit in 17.

Here's the thing, it's well known that most RB's start a steep decline in the back half of thier 20's.  This isn't a 25/26 yo QB slipping a bit, it's a 25/26 yo RB slipping a bit. One with a ton of wear on his tires with how often Pitts uses him in both the run and pass game. IN 2017 he had 406 touches, the next nearest, Lesean Mccoy had 346. Bell was almost 20% higher!

I just don't think it's logical to point to the Bell of 2019, conclude he doesn't look like the elite guy from 2016 and say it must be a Gase issue. I don't think it's likely he ever gets back to that level of performance. I

[CTM]

1 hour ago, jgb said:

Gase and Darnold get a pass because the OL stinks but Bell is an ancient back suited for the glue factory. Riiiiight.

just to clarify, I gave Gase a pass when Darnold was out. I give all 3 a pass when the Oline had Edoga and Kalil starting. 

These days I'm not giving much of a pass to any of them. The oline is bad but it's not the dumpster fire it was and you saw the offense put up a few decent games 

[varjet]

Its all about the dollars and cents.

Gase is not a great coach and he is not flexible.

Bell is an older running back but can still be very valuable to a team that knew how to use him.

Gase is under contract for 3 seasons after this.  The Jets are still paying Bowles this year and think next year.  Mac too.  I presume that what the Jets owe Bowles is reduced by what TB pays him.  For Mac there is no reduction, and there will not be.   Gase did not get a vote of confidence.  He got a vote of not spending more on a coach.  Gase gets at least 2020

To trade Bell, assuming the new team assumes his entire guaranteed salary, costs the Jets $3,500,000 in cap space with $19,000,000 in dead money.  (Thanks Over the Cap).  But theoretically this saves the Johnsons cash spend and gets us a draft pick, so I can see Bell being moved.  

[Drums]

1 hour ago, Philc1 said:

Sure he’s bowling when he’s supposed to be bed ridden with the flu 

Hahah. This does nothing to support your argument. You make him sound like Antonio Brown and your evidence is that he went bowling? 

[TJ]

4 hours ago, JiF said:

I feel like people who say Bell looks slow, has never seen Bell play.  He's not a burner, never has been.  That's not his thing. He's a patient runner with incredible vision and the ability to make the 1st guy miss and possibly a better WR.

If Bell is traded to a team that can run block, he'll be right back at the top of the league.  I guarantee it. 

Plus one.  Watched him a lot at Michigan State.  He was a one man offense!!  He was awesome with the Steelers.... 

Bell is fine.  The line stinks and so does the blocking system. 

[Losmeister]

1 hour ago, Scott Dierking said:

Guess you don't know. Thanks.

i do know. go read it yourself. your ignorance aint my problem.

 

[Scott Dierking]

1 hour ago, dbatesman said:

I don’t think FO slices it quite that thin in terms of personnel, though I could be wrong. They absolutely take down and distance into account, as well as the strength of the opponent. And they do track things like carries 1-10 vs. 30+, though I don’t think they make that data available without a subscription. Essentially what they’re doing is figuring out the expected success rate of a given play in a given scenario against a given defense, and comparing the actual outcome to that. That’s the gist, although they explain it better than I can: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

Thank you!!! That helps

[Scott Dierking]

32 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

i do know. go read it yourself. your ignorance aint my problem.

 

 1. I never asked you, It was not directed toward you.

2. Yesterday I helped edify you based on your "ignorance", when you could not read a simple chart when clarifying draft round and position.

 

[#27TheDominator]

Just now, CTM said:

I do think it's an asset to have a high DYAR. And I do think he had a good / very good year but I don't think he was "elite" by the way I define it. To me elite is a top 3 guy.  He was that guy in 15 and 16 and slipped a bit in 17.

Here's the thing, it's well known that most RB's start a steep decline in the back half of thier 20's.  This isn't a 25/26 yo QB slipping a bit, it's a 25/26 yo RB slipping a bit. One with a ton of wear on his tires with how often Pitts uses him in both the run and pass game. IN 2017 he had 406 touches, the next nearest, Lesean Mccoy had 346. Bell was almost 20% higher!

I just don't think it's logical to point to the Bell of 2019, conclude he doesn't look like the elite guy from 2016 and say it must be a Gase issue. I don't think it's likely he ever gets back to that level of performance. I

Eh. 

I get the point when defending Gase, but IMO it has primarily been on offensive line issue.  Bell had an extreme bulk of the carries in games when Darnold was out. Those Luke Falk games dropped his YPC fairly significantly.  If we were arguing whether we should have signed him, I get this, but I think it is fairly obvious that his downfall is more on this offense than on him IMO.  There is the question of whether his game compliments what Gase wants to do.  I think Gase wants a one cut guy with speed and would probably prefer a Joe Morris to a traditional top back.  Bell's "patience" is probably annoying to him and not suitable to a team where any hole is quickly closed and pursuit is always running free from the backside. 

[#27TheDominator]

2 hours ago, Losmeister said:

lazy. go read it yourself if you dont comprende

 

37 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

i do know. go read it yourself. your ignorance aint my problem.

 

I get being annoyed at having to read posts explaining sh*t that know and understand.  I don't understand why any of us would rather read about you complaining about asking for an explanation. 

[Losmeister]

5 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

 

2. Yesterday I helped edify you based on your "ignorance", when you could not read a simple chart when clarifying draft round and position.

 

chart didnt have column titles. no need ofr quotes not knowing=ignorance and of course, like everybody, there are many things that ik dont know. 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

THE SHORT VERSION:

DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative. For more detail, read below.

 

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

Gase doesn’t like Bell complaining and throwing a tantrum when he’s not involved more. 

Bell doesn’t like Gase for not running more. 

Problem is, OL sucks and doesn’t matter who’s running. 

Thus, egos collide. Ta da. 

[New York Mick]

Bell came from a winning program with a winning HC and HOF level QB, running behind an excellent Oline with two PB WRs on the outside. Did anyone think he was going to do as well here?

[Pac]

7 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Bell is an old back who can’t get through holes, which porks everything you want to do on offense. He’s single-handedly putting Sam Darnold in second and nine all game long. Old backs suck

This filth sums up your entire posting career.  Might be time to take 2 weeks off then quit.

[SOJ]

6 hours ago, JiF said:

Gase is a egomaniac psychopathic a$$hole who likes to make and prove points rather than do what's best for his team.  It's a was a glaring issue in Miami as he ran all the talent out of town and it's obvious with how he handles any situation he doesnt like; so he went out of his way to alienate Bell and prove a moronic failed point by letting Powell show that nobody can run behind this OL.

I say this stat over and over again but morons keep saying things like Bell is done.  The Jets RB's meet 1st contact at .5  yards past LOS.  League average is 3 yards.  Nobody is going to be successful behind this OL.  3 RB's are utilized by the Jets, the average is 3.3 ypc and everyone of them is having their worst year from a YPC perspective.  Coincidence?  no

An "offensive genius" cant work in 27 year old Le'Veon Bell's skill set but Todd Haley made him the most dynamic playmaker in the NFL.  It's not a good look for Gase just like the Tannehill situation.

Powell had 75 yds... Proves that bell is not suited for this team.  Powell this year has been better at hitting the hole faster and getting more  yards.