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kevinc855

Farve/Darnold Comparison

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1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

Whats so head scratching when a 22 year old who's barely over the one season mark throwing 3 INTs over the course of 5 or 6 games?  His INT last night wasn't head scratching, we don't even know if it was on him or his TE.  Its over played by the media right now.  He's thrown 12 in a season where he's played ill, played one horrible game with 4 picks and played almost the entire season with most of his weapons being bottom of the roster types and the leagues worst OL.  No time to throw to WRs who cant get open isn't a recipe for low INT counts

The more I watched it, the more I think there was miss communication.

I don't know who was at fault, but Darnold thought he was going in, and the TE thought he was going out.

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42 minutes ago, Greensleeves said:

2 touchdowns and one pick, as a video that was posted yesterday mentioned, would be 32 TDs and 16 picks - the best season of any Jet ever. A pass interference call was missed on Robby last night. That should have been 1st down on the 1 and who knows what happens as the D picked it up. The game realistically ended with that no call.

what about his 0 TDs and 4 INT games extrapolating into

0 TDs and 64 INT?  exactly. its absurd. you dont get to pick a single game and draw the curve . not how it works.

THE non PI THEN the INT. Killer.

Said Sam loked like a top 10 dude for most of the forst half. 

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3 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

what about his 0 TDs and 4 INT games extrapolating into

0 TDs and 64 INT?  exactly. its absurd. you dont get to pick a single game and draw the curve . not how it works.

THE non PI THEN the INT. Killer.

Said Sam loked like a top 10 dude for most of the forst half. 

The bad is highly concentrated in a small sample size. 52% of his career interceptions have come in 4 games. 

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3 minutes ago, Warfish said:

But that's not his numbers.  Because he wasn't healthy.  And he didn't not play his bad games.  His actual numbers are borderline NFL bust at this point.  

Extrapolation of cherry picked "good games" only, almost all of which were against bad defenses and equally horrible losing teams, not representative of his actual quality of play, this year or last. 

These "well, if we take his one awesome game this year and project that over a full season equally, he has a 79% completion rate, 6,980 yards, 145 TD's and 0 INT's.....he's CLEARLY BRETT FAVRE" posts. 

When he actually produced those numbers, and plays that consistently, he WILL be applauded universally in Jets Fan nation for having done so.  It will be the single greatest production season in Jets history.

When he does it.

He hasn't, yet.  Not even close. 

Woulda, coulda, shoulda projections are just that, projections.  They're not real.  And no amount of them will erase his bad games and inconsistent play overall, or his inability to-date to play 16 games in his first two seasons.

Lets get him some help, get that O-line squared away, maybe get him a real #1 WR, and then lets see how he does.  For 16 games.  Not a cherry picked 3 or 6.

Yet not taking circumstances into account is not only not fair to the player but how a simpleton views things.

In my buisness, if I'm evaluating an employee on something, I'm going to look at their body of work, view their production, evaluate how they handled it, look at the good and the bad, and make an educated projection of how they are going to continue to perform. 

This is simply an educated projection based off his last 6 games, considering the circumstances that have affected him the previous 8 and the entire team around him. 

There is a night and day difference between the circumstances of his early games and this stretch.

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22 minutes ago, nico002 said:

You are not considering the variability in his numbers. That shows potential, a bust looks bad no matter what sample size you look at.

Production is production.  Excuses (or explanation) serve to inform as to why a number is bad, but it doesn't make the numbers not-bad.

At some point, Sam will have to produce above-average NFL #1 QB performance, or he will be gone.  It won't matter how bad the team is he plays with, how many times he gets Mono, or how young he is.  If he fails to deliver above-average NFL QB production, he will not be retained.

The league history is full of young QB's with potential who went to bad teams, were improperly supported, played inconsistently, had legit excuses, and are still universally known as busts today.

Darnold has had two years on weak teams.  In both years he has missed considerable time and produced materially below average production.

That can be tolerated only for so long.  We all better hope that Douglas builds around him, O-line, #1 WR, probably a RB to replace Bell (traded) and Powell (old).  Because we will reach a point, and it's getting closer, where "well, but....." excuses will no longer matter.  

Till then, perhaps we should stop glorifying Darnold as a deity of some sort, and tone down our expectations from "his floor is HOF Favre/Rivers" to "we expect once we support him, as in IN 2020, he will produce like an average NFL starting QB".

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LOL I get a kick out of guys trying to convince themselves of something that they really want to, but do not quite believe.

 

Sam and Brett Fav-REH. LMAO, yeah ok.

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3 minutes ago, JTJet said:

Yet not taking circumstances into account is not only not fair to the player but how a simpleton views things.

Welcome to life, life isn't fair.

As noted above, history won't give two sh*ts how unfair it was to Darnold if he doesn't improve, materially, his production in 2020 and beyond. 

He will just be another bad luck, turnover-prone QB, who went to a bad team and busted. Excuses and reasons only last so long. 

Again, no need for me to repeat myself.  My previous post covers my thoughts.

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1 hour ago, CTM said:

Fwiw. I thought he played well last night, better than I expected given the disparate talent. 

this means a lot coming from you. At least you can be fair every once in awhile when the performance was decent, but not necessarily  GOOD. some people tend to just toss it in with the bad and call it a day.

there were points left on the field as usual. I think that’s the natural result you get from an overall dysfunctional offensive unit from the top down. individually, even without considering the circumstances, comparing other QB’s #’s to the Ravens D, you still can come away saying he played admirably for the majority of the game.

personally, I figured this kind of thing would happen.(as most) the OL did an alright job last night but leaked bad in some critical spots, to top it off, the WR just couldn’t get the separation as consistently as needed to win this game. Knew from the very jump that we would have to match their every score and that just wasn’t happening. 31st Offense can’t keep up with the 1st ranked offense (that also has a top 5 defense) just no way.

decent effort by Darnold but of course wasn’t enough.

Even if this roster didn’t have 15 players (8 starters) on IR, never was going to be enough to handle a top notch, patriot beating, super bowl contender, at their house, who have won their last 10 games. That would be considered a HOT NBA win streak ... very rare in football to be on a double digit win streak... or really anything 5-6+. Ravens are scary.

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54 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

this means a lot coming from you. At least you can be fair every once in awhile when the performance was decent, but not necessarily  GOOD. some people tend to just toss it in with the bad and call it a day.

I tend to take the con side more often because I find the drumbeat of praise more over the top and more consistant than the detractors (outside of a few trolls)  

I like Darnold overall. He seems like a solid kid and I prefer his aggressive approach to the game over a conservative yellow-bellied approach like Pennington. 

That being said, people like to tout his inexperience as a plus, like there is nowhere to go but up, but I look at it a little differently. Hes under live fire now, and to me his play quickly degrades at times because he lacks that mechanical foundation of play that comes from 10's of thousands of repetitions of 3 and 5 step drops and deliver. Its mundane, it's boring but its it's effective and what consistantly productive / winning Qb's can do in thier sleep. It creates a more reliable floor of play.

I keep saying hes a puncher more than a boxer, and I'd take him everyday of the week over a Brady or Brees in a game of pickup beach football because he has a ton of ability you just cant teach, but on Sunday, running a sophisicated pro offense against a sophisticated pro defense, he is a liability at times.

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2 hours ago, TeddEY said:

And, scene.

Brett Favre without "epic arm strength" fizzles out of the league.  That "epic arm strength" covered up a ton of bad.

And moxie got Favre through a lot. Darnold does not have confidence yet.

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3 hours ago, BroadwayRay said:

He’s more Jameis Winston than Brett Favre so far in his career. 

I don't think that's a bad thing because Winston is damn near a mini Favre himself 🤷🏽‍♂️

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3 minutes ago, CTM said:

That being said, people like to tout his inexperience as a plus, like there is nowhere to go but up, but I look at it a little differently. Hes under live fire now, and to me his play quickly degrades at times

there seem to be times where he is very hesitant...  the normal non all 22 view doesnt allow a better understanding of what is happening as an observer... 

for instance

Connor @ Athletic mentioned this  ( i dont claim to know this is true or not) but it may be an example

On the second to last series of the first half (the one where the Jets stalled at Baltimore’s 7 yard line), Darnold had a touchdown staring him in the face. Robby Anderson ran a crossing route perfectly designed by Gase. Anderson’s route ran close enough that a Raven linebacker knocked the corner guarding Anderson off balance. Anderson broke free with nothing but green in front of him. It would have been an easy touchdown. Darnold, instead, came off Anderson. He eventually went to Crowder, who converted the first down.

 

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4 hours ago, Ohio State NY Jets fan said:

this team spent a decade looking for a decent QB - Sam is not the problem, challenge in 3 years will be if they can pay him without a team around him

When people act like Darnold is a bust or the problem with this team I really wonder if they're watching the same games I am.

Put this kid on a good team he's making Pro Bowls. The problem isn't Darnold. The problem is the Jets.

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13 minutes ago, CTM said:

I like Darnold overall. He seems like a solid kid and I prefer his aggressive approach to the game over a conservative yellow-bellied approach like Pennington. 

That being said, people like to tout his inexperience as a plus, like there is nowhere to go but up, but I look at it a little differently. Hes under live fire now, and to me his play quickly degrades at times because he lacks that mechanical foundation of play that comes from 10's of thousands of repetitions of 3 and 5 step drops and deliver. Its mundane, it's boring but its it's effective and what consistantly productive / winning Qb's can do in thier sleep. It creates a more reliable floor of play.

I keep saying hes a puncher more than a boxer, and I'd take him everyday of the week over a Brady or Brees in a game of pickup beach football because he has a ton of ability you just cant teach, but on Sunday, running a sophisicated pro offense against a sophisticated pro defense, he is a liability at times.

Keepin it 💯 

The part bolded is where I feel like a guy like McCarthy would have been better here. I’m not saying McCarthy is some great coach, and I certainly recognize the stagnant nature of his innovation and schemes in his final years in GB. Still, he has a proven history of transforming a guy with similar (albiet, more refined) traits into a great QB through 1000 hours of mental and physical reps. The articles about his QB school had me giddy thinking about how he’d work with Sam. Instead we ended up with a guy who rode Peyton to paydays and doesn’t have a single QB or offense to point to and say, “I did that”. If anything, the best thing to say about him is that QBs/offense get better when he leaves. So we’ve got that going for us!

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4 hours ago, Ohio State NY Jets fan said:

this team spent a decade looking for a decent QB - Sam is not the problem, challenge in 3 years will be if they can pay him without a team around him

Exactly. 

Personally, I think he can be great and carry a decent team a long way, but his floor is still MORE than good enough to compete for a championship if he is surrounded with the right talent. 

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2 hours ago, TeddEY said:

And, scene.

Brett Favre without "epic arm strength" fizzles out of the league.  That "epic arm strength" covered up a ton of bad.

But that was the beauty of Favre. He had such a good arm, he could win you and lose you a game.

When a QB is that talented, sometimes you have to accept the bad with the good 🤷🏽‍♂️

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2 hours ago, Greensleeves said:

2 touchdowns and one pick, as a video that was posted yesterday mentioned, would be 32 TDs and 16 picks - the best season of any Jet ever. A pass interference call was missed on Robby last night. That should have been 1st down on the 1 and who knows what happens as the D picked it up. The game realistically ended with that no call.

Yeah that was disgusting.

Anderson was mugged in the end zone, no call of course.

Same scenario with New England and 1 pinky that touches his receiver, not an arm totally wrapped around his receiver like Anderson was...Ref sees the ball hit the ground and no TD...THEN the flag comes out for Brady for PI haha.

That’s how bad the officiating is this year, it’s actually devolved into WWE style...wait for the result of the play, think what Madison Ave wants...and act on those wishes.

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1 hour ago, Saul Goodman said:

Not seeing the Favre comp at all. Romo maybe...

I’d say some sort of Romo/Big Ben hybrid, but in reality, all of these comparisons are silly 

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6 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

there seem to be times where he is very hesitant...  the normal non all 22 view doesnt allow a better understanding of what is happening as an observer... 

for instance

Connor @ Athletic mentioned this  ( i dont claim to know this is true or not) but it may be an example

On the second to last series of the first half (the one where the Jets stalled at Baltimore’s 7 yard line), Darnold had a touchdown staring him in the face. Robby Anderson ran a crossing route perfectly designed by Gase. Anderson’s route ran close enough that a Raven linebacker knocked the corner guarding Anderson off balance. Anderson broke free with nothing but green in front of him. It would have been an easy touchdown. Darnold, instead, came off Anderson. He eventually went to Crowder, who converted the first down.

 

If you watch video of every play of every game Aaron Rodgers/Brady play I am sure you can find times they don't see an open WR. Darnold is 22. He will get better at reading defenses/situations. Some on here are expecting him to play like a 10 year vet and carry a bad team to more wins than are reasonable to expect.  

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7 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

If you watch video of every play of every game Aaron Rodgers/Brady play I am sure you can find times they don't see an open WR. Darnold is 22. He will get better at reading defenses/situations. Some on here are expecting him to play like a 10 year vet and carry a bad team to more wins than are reasonable to expect.  

What in world possess people to use HOFers to compare to a struggling 2nd year guy?

We better hope he gets better. And I do. 

No. I HOPE he plays WELL MORE OFTEN.

Sam says this

“I need to continue to play smart,” Darnold said. “No matter what the scenario is. I have to play smart at all times. When you slip up in the NFL you get exposed. For me, I have to continue to play ball. Not have those critical one or two mistakes a game.”

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16 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

When people act like Darnold is a bust or the problem with this team I really wonder if they're watching the same games I am.

Put this kid on a good team he's making Pro Bowls. The problem isn't Darnold. The problem is the Jets.

exactly - put Sam on the 2009 or 2010 team and Rex makes good on his SB promise 

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I like Darnold alot.  I still think he is 'the' QB for us if Gase and the oline does not ruin him.

No he is nothing like Favre.

Favre could throw through his mistakes.  Favres arm let him take risks and get away with it many times. 

though Danrold has a pretty good arm it is not in the class of favre

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2 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

I like Darnold alot.  I still think he is 'the' QB for us if Gase and the oline does not ruin him.

No he is nothing like Favre.

Favre could throw through his mistakes.  Favres arm let him take risks and get away with it many times. 

though Danrold has a pretty good arm it is not in the class of favre

Favre was much better with his camera phone as well.

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1 minute ago, Apache 51 said:

Favre was much better with his camera phone as well.

Still lots of time for that.

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4 hours ago, BroadwayRay said:

He’s more Jameis Winston than Brett Favre so far in his career. 

FWIW, Lucas and Scott literally laughed at this comparison last night (Jameis). Both still team Sam.

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I said this yesterday during the game after the int 😁

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Favre is one of the most exciting QBs of all time and if Darnold is the second coming of him, we are in for a ride

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9 hours ago, kevinc855 said:

Anyone who follows this forum knows I been making this point for weeks now it’s seems to be getting more traction in the media and on here as Sam continues to make amazing throws followed by head scratching ints. That said Brett Favre went to the pro bowl 11 times, the playoffs 12 times, threw over 500 tds, won a super bowl and went to the hall of fame. So if you are telling me we drafted the next Brett Favre personally I’m not to upset. Sam is a gunslinger, get used to it. Some ints are Gona happen that make you want to scream. Once you solidify this o line tho the good will far outshine the bad. Lamar jackson is what is hot now. The way he runs and take hits I could see a very Michael Vick ending but we will see. Josh Rosen was a complete bust and mayfield is not living up to expectations. The other 18 qb playing decent right now is Allen but time will tell. Sam is a good qb and a good one for the long run. 
 

 

What's concerning is the reason Favre tossed so many is he was a talented ignoramus who didn't read the play book and slept through offensive meetings when he was younger, and used his clout to do whatever he wanted after he established himself. I don't think Favre's turnover causes apply to Darnold, even if the number of them appears similar so far. Favre was Favre and Darnold is Darnold.

That said I'm not ready to make career predictions for him this early when he's feeling footsteps on every drop back he doesn't roll out right away. It'll be good for him to get trained into not holding the ball for so long, but not much else. He's 5 years of this away from me having David Carr type concerns. (Carr was one guy and, while I didn't watch him in college, his ultra-low pick rate suggests he was always one to hold the ball until someone got wide open. His use as a comparison is among the most overused in all NFL discussions.)

He'll be just 23 next season. I'm not panicking yet, even as I cringe through so many of his bad throws/decisions. If he had the 2009-2010 OL and a defense that kept him out of so many must-pass-must-pass-must-pass possessions, I'd be far more pessimistic.

Hey even freaking Brady's first full season starting (not as a rookie, but at age 24 after comfortably absorbing from the sideline for a year under the same coaching staff and same scheme/playbook/etc.) Brady also had a ~3% pick rate, a 4-pick game, and ate it more than Darnold with his 9% sack rate, and coughed it up more as well with his 10 fumbles. All this was behind a superior line; with superior veteran coaching at every level on offense; opposite a stingy 17ppg defense that created twice as many turnovers as the '19 Jets, which both lead to all those short fields and possessions where he didn't have to force things.

Now Darnold's not Brady and won't ever be either, but in year 2 even Brady wasn't Brady, and he for damn sure wouldn't have been veteran Brady on the 2019 injury-decimated, Maccagnan-supplied, Adam Gase coached Jets. 

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15 minutes ago, kevinc855 said:

Read the news every now and then tool bag 

I read the News Transcript every day bub, haven't seen any Farve comps

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4 minutes ago, kevinc855 said:

 

Quote

No, Darnold doesn’t have Favre’s epic arm strength (though he does have a strong arm). No, they don’t really play the same style. But they keep seeming more and more similar in this sense: Darnold, like Favre, will make a series of eye-popping, gutsy throws that thread the needle and whistle past defenders’ ears. He’ll do a whole bunch of stuff that makes it clear he’s special. But he’s also prone to some bizarre brain farts and over-aggression that cost him.

That boom-or-bust style was on display Thursday night. Darnold excelled at fitting balls into tight windows; the touchdown throw to Jamison Crowder in the second quarter was the perfect example. There was barely a glimmer of daylight and only his man could have caught that. It was an unquestionably elite throw.

But then there was Darnold’s pick right before the half, which made no logical sense. He was seemingly throwing to no one and picked the worst possible time – trailing 21-7, but with points well within reach – to throw an interception near the goal line.

With each passing week, it feels like this is the kind of quarterback Darnold is, when he’s at his best: Really good, but with a tendency to produce some head-scratching moments.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the sum total of this guy's evidence that Darnold is Favre 2.0 appears to be:

1. Darnold doesn't have Favre's arm strength

2. Darnold made a really good throw last night

3. Darnold also made a really bad throw last night

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