Mock DRAFT 1.0 - the pre-bowl season edition

[Paradis]

Gonna make some assumptions about declarations (and final draft position) -- and since i have NO idea what Joe Douglas's m.o. is in the war room, i'm playing this like i'm the balls in the room. 

Round 1:

1. CIN - J. Burrow (duh)
2. WSH - PR, C. Young
3. MIA - OT, A. Thomas
4. DET - DT, D. Brown
5. NYG - WR, J. Jeudy
6. ARZ - CB, J. Okudah
7. (TRADE)  IND - QB, T. Tagovailoa... (Jets prayers are answered, and IND returns the favor form 2018 -- Jets receive #16 + #34 & #45 (two 2nd rnd picks) 

Jets draft:

• 1st rnd - OT, A Jackson (USC)
• 2nd rnd - OG, S. Lemieux (ORE)
• 2nd rnd - WR. J. Jefferson (LSU)
• 2nd rnd - CB, CJ Henderson (FL)
• 3rd rnd - WR, A. Gandy-Golden (Liberty)
• 3rd rnd - C, Nick Harris (WU)
• (TRADE) 3rd - RB, T. Etienne (Clemson) ..... Jets trade up to middle of 3rd for their RB, and give up their 4th rnd, and 5th rnd pick. 
• 6th rnd - OLB, B. Huff (Memphis)

 

Thoughts? It's not as far fetched as you'd think. Trading back with team like IND who'd be happy to chase Tua w/o giving up a #1 next year is very possible... And given that we already have two 3rd round picks, there's only so many mileage on the 53 for rookies. I would look to trade up if a guy like Etienne was still there in middle 3rd round (again, totally possible)

[section314]

25 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Gonna make some assumptions about declarations (and final draft position) -- and since i have NO idea what Joe Douglas's m.o. is in the war room, i'm playing this like i'm the balls in the room. 

Round 1:

1. CIN - J. Burrow (duh)
2. WSH - PR, C. Young
3. MIA - OT, A. Thomas
4. DET - DT, D. Brown
5. NYG - WR, J. Jeudy
6. ARZ - CB, J. Okudah
7. (TRADE)  IND - QB, T. Tagovailoa... (Jets prayers are answered, and IND returns the favor form 2018 -- Jets receive #16 + #34 & #45 (two 2nd rnd picks) 

Jets draft:

• 1st rnd - OT, A Jackson (USC)
• 2nd rnd - OG, S. Lemieux (ORE)
• 2nd rnd - WR. J. Jefferson (LSU)
• 2nd rnd - CB, CJ Henderson (FL)
• 3rd rnd - WR, A. Gandy-Golden (Liberty)
• 3rd rnd - C, Nick Harris (WU)
• (TRADE) 3rd - RB, T. Etienne (Clemson) ..... Jets trade up to middle of 3rd for their RB, and give up their 4th rnd, and 5th rnd pick. 
• 6th rnd - OLB, B. Huff (Memphis)

 

Thoughts? It's not as far fetched as you'd think. Trading back with team like IND who'd be happy to chase Tua w/o giving up a #1 next year is very possible... And given that we already have two 3rd round picks, there's only so many mileage on the 53 for rookies. I would look to trade up if a guy like Etienne was still there in middle 3rd round (again, totally possible)

So, we get 3 new starters on Oline and a#1 and at worst a #3 wr? Sign me up,

[RobR]

1 hour ago, Paradis said:

Gonna make some assumptions about declarations (and final draft position) -- and since i have NO idea what Joe Douglas's m.o. is in the war room, i'm playing this like i'm the balls in the room. 

Round 1:

1. CIN - J. Burrow (duh)
2. WSH - PR, C. Young
3. MIA - OT, A. Thomas
4. DET - DT, D. Brown
5. NYG - WR, J. Jeudy
6. ARZ - CB, J. Okudah
7. (TRADE)  IND - QB, T. Tagovailoa... (Jets prayers are answered, and IND returns the favor form 2018 -- Jets receive #16 + #34 & #45 (two 2nd rnd picks) 

Jets draft:

• 1st rnd - OT, A Jackson (USC)
• 2nd rnd - OG, S. Lemieux (ORE)
• 2nd rnd - WR. J. Jefferson (LSU)
• 2nd rnd - CB, CJ Henderson (FL)
• 3rd rnd - WR, A. Gandy-Golden (Liberty)
• 3rd rnd - C, Nick Harris (WU)
• (TRADE) 3rd - RB, T. Etienne (Clemson) ..... Jets trade up to middle of 3rd for their RB, and give up their 4th rnd, and 5th rnd pick. 
• 6th rnd - OLB, B. Huff (Memphis)

 

Thoughts? It's not as far fetched as you'd think. Trading back with team like IND who'd be happy to chase Tua w/o giving up a #1 next year is very possible... And given that we already have two 3rd round picks, there's only so many mileage on the 53 for rookies. I would look to trade up if a guy like Etienne was still there in middle 3rd round (again, totally possible)

I think the way you have the first round unfolding is not realistic.....you're just basing it on todays thoughts which are never correct. I easily see Jeudy and Brown falling and Tua will drop like a fallen stone but I won't get too nitpicky since it's very early in the process.

I like the draft and the positions you addressed although I'm not a huge fan of Etiene although at that point I wouldn't cry. Also don't think a 4 and a 5 gets you into the third.

I need too find some time to do the Olineman but it's become much harder to find tape unless you want to fast forward through over half the game and I just don't have that time anymore. Damn I miss Draft Breakdown.

 

[14 in Green]

2 hours ago, Paradis said:

Gonna make some assumptions about declarations (and final draft position) -- and since i have NO idea what Joe Douglas's m.o. is in the war room, i'm playing this like i'm the balls in the room. 

Round 1:

1. CIN - J. Burrow (duh)
2. WSH - PR, C. Young
3. MIA - OT, A. Thomas
4. DET - DT, D. Brown
5. NYG - WR, J. Jeudy
6. ARZ - CB, J. Okudah
7. (TRADE)  IND - QB, T. Tagovailoa... (Jets prayers are answered, and IND returns the favor form 2018 -- Jets receive #16 + #34 & #45 (two 2nd rnd picks) 

Jets draft:

• 1st rnd - OT, A Jackson (USC)
• 2nd rnd - OG, S. Lemieux (ORE)
• 2nd rnd - WR. J. Jefferson (LSU)
• 2nd rnd - CB, CJ Henderson (FL)
• 3rd rnd - WR, A. Gandy-Golden (Liberty)
• 3rd rnd - C, Nick Harris (WU)
• (TRADE) 3rd - RB, T. Etienne (Clemson) ..... Jets trade up to middle of 3rd for their RB, and give up their 4th rnd, and 5th rnd pick. 
• 6th rnd - OLB, B. Huff (Memphis)

 

Thoughts? It's not as far fetched as you'd think. Trading back with team like IND who'd be happy to chase Tua w/o giving up a #1 next year is very possible... And given that we already have two 3rd round picks, there's only so many mileage on the 53 for rookies. I would look to trade up if a guy like Etienne was still there in middle 3rd round (again, totally possible)

I love when you guys start to do this, and you really put a lot of effort into this through April.

You and I talked about AGG when Liberty played the ‘Cuse early this season. I had never heard of him until you told me about him, and you were right, he’s really good.

I like this pick very much.

I’ll be very surprised though if Indy (especially after the Luck scenario)or anyone, takes a chance that early on Tua though. That injury he had is a big deal, I know. It happened to me, and that was it with baseball. Your leg never feels the same.

[Paradis]

 

2 hours ago, RobR said:

I think the way you have the first round unfolding is not realistic.....you're just basing it on todays thoughts which are never correct. I easily see Jeudy and Brown falling and Tua will drop like a fallen stone but I won't get too nitpicky since it's very early in the process.

I like the draft and the positions you addressed although I'm not a huge fan of Etiene although at that point I wouldn't cry. Also don't think a 4 and a 5 gets you into the third.

I need too find some time to do the Olineman but it's become much harder to find tape unless you want to fast forward through over half the game and I just don't have that time anymore. Damn I miss Draft Breakdown.

 

Not sure i'd agree with "not realistic" - but certainly far from accurate given that we haven't started the draft circuit...I think all those players I listed are more likely to go top 10, then not.  

Might be right about the 4th and 5th, though not if it's later in the 3rd.... either way I'm putting my name on it now - Tua goes top 10. ...Felt the same way about Todd Gurley going to go top 10... Yes, different injury, but also far more important position. I wouldn't blame a franchise for saying - Fck it, and rolling the dice. 

You didn't like/trust Tua a ton before the injury. I think he's the real deal. Teams take bigger risks all the time with Leonard Floyds and Eli Apples.

[Paradis]

2 hours ago, 14 in Green said:

I’ll be very surprised though if Indy (especially after the Luck scenario)or anyone, takes a chance that early on Tua though. That injury he had is a big deal, I know. It happened to me, and that was it with baseball. Your leg never feels the same.

I'm sure some teams will mirror your concern/headspace on Tua.... but I'd wager there's going to be a few teams who were SUPER high on Tua, and will do their homework. If the medicals suggests he stands a good chance at a reasonably full recovery - it's 100% worth it IMO. 

[RobR]

7 minutes ago, Paradis said:

You didn't like/trust Tua a ton before the injury. I think he's the real deal. Teams take bigger risks all the time with Leonard Floyds and Eli Apples.

Tua is beyond damaged goods at this point. Saban drove him into the ground and I can't see a top 10 pick even with the best prognosis. He's a tweener even when healthy.

[Paradis]

5 minutes ago, RobR said:

Tua is beyond damaged goods at this point. Saban drove him into the ground and I can't see a top 10 pick even with the best prognosis. He's a tweener even when healthy.

And I love you for this. Lol. 

No seriously, I don't agree, but i get it. It's going to be an interesting story to follow. CIN's going to write Burrow down on a card and forget it for the next 4 months... That story doesn't have a ton of mileage. Tua is going to saturating your TV sets by April if he declares. 

[RobR]

Just now, Paradis said:

And I love you for this. Lol. 

No seriously, I don't agree, but i get it. It's going to be an interesting story to follow. CIN's going to write Burrow down on a card and forget it for the next 4 months... That story doesn't have a ton of mileage. Tua is going to saturating your TV sets by April if he declares. 

I wouldn't be shocked if Burrow doesn't go first. As you know I love him as a prospect but those arm concerns are....or should be....concerning. Depending how the draft sets up I could easily see Tua going mid to late 20's or even second round. He's already one major injury from his career being over....he's damaged goods. 

What I'm saying is I don't see a first overall type QB for this draft and even though I love Burrow, I doubt he will be the best of this class. I hate Herbert but he logged his best game ever a few weeks ago. Hopefully it helps the Jets draft position with a major haul moving down.

[Paradis]

I'd hate to be a GM getting pressured by staff or ownership to take Herbert... Cause when he busts, it's going to be all on my (GM)'s shoulders.

[maury77]

3 hours ago, RobR said:

I think the way you have the first round unfolding is not realistic.....you're just basing it on todays thoughts which are never correct. I easily see Jeudy and Brown falling and Tua will drop like a fallen stone but I won't get too nitpicky since it's very early in the process.

I like the draft and the positions you addressed although I'm not a huge fan of Etiene although at that point I wouldn't cry. Also don't think a 4 and a 5 gets you into the third.

I need too find some time to do the Olineman but it's become much harder to find tape unless you want to fast forward through over half the game and I just don't have that time anymore. Damn I miss Draft Breakdown.

 

Don't worry, I'll be posting video this weekend in the forum. It's time. 

[RobR]

1 minute ago, maury77 said:

Don't worry, I'll be posting video this weekend in the forum. It's time. 

Good to see you back and posting, especially with this Oline class..

[maury77]

Overall, I like the positions you selected at their respective draft positions. I don't think Etienne will last to the 3rd, but you could be right. Why did you settle on Jackson and Lemieux?

[Paradis]

16 minutes ago, maury77 said:

Overall, I like the positions you selected at their respective draft positions. I don't think Etienne will last to the 3rd, but you could be right. Why did you settle on Jackson and Lemieux?

Thanks. I know people haven't yet bought into these 2nd levels guys yet.... I don't think Etienne is/will be looked at as the total package. Could be wrong, but with all the talent at WR/Oline/others, I'm not sure we see more than 1-2 backs go in the top 50. We'll see, it's early. 

@RobR I follow the guy from Draft Breakdown on twitter, and some of his clan... The cut up film will start circulating... Mark Jarvis - who i think you'd be on the same wavelength as - runs similar operation, but at a cost... he cuts up a TON of film... I think you can download his entire 2019 library or something akin to that for free as a preview of his work... huge file though, like 220+mb.

https://www.patreon.com/WhatsOnDraftNFL

 

[Paradis]

Some of the film is starting pop up

 

 

[Paradis]

this one too

(both are from Mark Jarvis - but without his assessment and scouting notes)

@maury77 forget to mention, i just feel more comfortable with Jackson as a LT than say a couple of the other names who may wind up as lifetime Right tackles. 

[King P]

Jackson and AGG

[PepPep]

I love the trade, don't love most of the prospect you have at their respective picks. But everone has their own preferences. 

I'm happy with Jackson in Rd. 1 

But my interior lineman in Rd. 2 would be Creed Humphrey, the Center from Oklahoma.

My CB early in Rd. 2 would be AJ Terrell although I'd be fine with CJ Henderson.  

My WR in Rd. 2 would be Donovan Peoples-Jones out of Michigan, who is an absolute beast and can do everything on the football field. Not sure why you would settle for Jefferson so early in the draft. He's a solid prospect and I like him but Rd. 2 is early for him IMO.  

If I am doubling up at WR in Rd. 3 I am taking Denzel Mims, the speedster out of Baylor. 

If I'm going after another interior lineman in Rd. 3 (since I took a C already) its Yasir Durant out of Missouri, who is a great, balanced, versatile OT/OG prospect and perfect for a line with multiple holes. 

If I'm trading up back into Rd. 3 its not for a RB but an Edge Rusher, someone like Jonathan Greenard out of Florida, a 3-4 edge rusher who is also solid against the run. 

 

 

[Paradis]

2 hours ago, PepPep said:

I love the trade, don't love most of the prospect you have at their respective picks. But everone has their own preferences. 

I'm happy with Jackson in Rd. 1 

But my interior lineman in Rd. 2 would be Creed Humphrey, the Center from Oklahoma.

My CB early in Rd. 2 would be AJ Terrell although I'd be fine with CJ Henderson.  

My WR in Rd. 2 would be Donovan Peoples-Jones out of Michigan, who is an absolute beast and can do everything on the football field. Not sure why you would settle for Jefferson so early in the draft. He's a solid prospect and I like him but Rd. 2 is early for him IMO.  

If I am doubling up at WR in Rd. 3 I am taking Denzel Mims, the speedster out of Baylor. 

If I'm going after another interior lineman in Rd. 3 (since I took a C already) its Yasir Durant out of Missouri, who is a great, balanced, versatile OT/OG prospect and perfect for a line with multiple holes. 

If I'm trading up back into Rd. 3 its not for a RB but an Edge Rusher, someone like Jonathan Greenard out of Florida, a 3-4 edge rusher who is also solid against the run. 

You sound like me 5 years ago, lol. 

By that i mean, i gave up getting too fixated on my wish list, and try to be flexible. Mix in guys I like with players the industry favors, and guys our GM (might) like.... I mean if this was a wish list, my first pick would be Lamb, my 2nd rounders would be Higgins and AGG. Overhaul the whole damn WR corps. Then spend the rest of the draft on Tackles and Guards. Literally. 

If you're truly putting on your pseudo-GM hat, you have to be prepared for example that D. People-Jones may be gone. You have to have boards to go off. What if Mims is a surprise pick a few before you? What do you do? Are you prepared for that -- or are you like Macc who loses Hurd 1 pick before us, and winds up picking Polite in a rush

[PepPep]

12 hours ago, Paradis said:

You sound like me 5 years ago, lol. 

By that i mean, i gave up getting too fixated on my wish list, and try to be flexible. Mix in guys I like with players the industry favors, and guys our GM (might) like.... I mean if this was a wish list, my first pick would be Lamb, my 2nd rounders would be Higgins and AGG. Overhaul the whole damn WR corps. Then spend the rest of the draft on Tackles and Guards. Literally. 

If you're truly putting on your pseudo-GM hat, you have to be prepared for example that D. People-Jones may be gone. You have to have boards to go off. What if Mims is a surprise pick a few before you? What do you do? Are you prepared for that -- or are you like Macc who loses Hurd 1 pick before us, and winds up picking Polite in a rush

As far as who the GM an coach may like, you are right. And of course I don;t know a lot of prospects that are under the radaar. But Peoples-Jones early in the 2nd round is quite realistic. I guess it depends on where we end up picking in Rd. 2. But with the WR depth, he should def. be there. But I agree, if we are dropping further in Rd. 2 also getting Humphrey and CJ Henderson on top of that is unrealistic. Those guys are goung bottom of round 1, top of Rd. 2- maybe one slips to the teens of rd. 2.  

I also don't think Mims in the 3rd is unrealistic. Again, this is a really deep WR class. Right now, the earliest I have seen Mims projected anywhere is Rd. 3-4. That doesn't mean his stock won't skyrocket, but I can only go by the info I have now. For all I know A.Thomas' stock plummets and he is sitting there in the late teens for us after we trade down. 

As far as what I would do vs. what the GM would do. I kind of think this will be close to how the GM will approach the draft. He will look to trade down, he will look to take one of the blue chip OT/LT prospects in Rd. 1, he will look at CB/WR in Rd. 2 and then use one of the 3rd round picks on an Edge rusher and the other on an interior lineman. I mean, it all depends on who is available where and whether or not we are actually able to trade down, but yeah, something along those lines. I def. WOULD NOT draft 3 WRS WITH OUR FIRST 3 PICKS without the O-line fixed. Thats insanity. LOL. But thats JMHO.    

[Paradis]

2 hours ago, PepPep said:

As far as who the GM an coach may like, you are right. And of course I don;t know a lot of prospects that are under the radaar. But Peoples-Jones early in the 2nd round is quite realistic. I guess it depends on where we end up picking in Rd. 2. But with the WR depth, he should def. be there. But I agree, if we are dropping further in Rd. 2 also getting Humphrey and CJ Henderson on top of that is unrealistic. Those guys are goung bottom of round 1, top of Rd. 2- maybe one slips to the teens of rd. 2.  

I also don't think Mims in the 3rd is unrealistic. Again, this is a really deep WR class. Right now, the earliest I have seen Mims projected anywhere is Rd. 3-4. That doesn't mean his stock won't skyrocket, but I can only go by the info I have now. For all I know A.Thomas' stock plummets and he is sitting there in the late teens for us after we trade down. 

As far as what I would do vs. what the GM would do. I kind of think this will be close to how the GM will approach the draft. He will look to trade down, he will look to take one of the blue chip OT/LT prospects in Rd. 1, he will look at CB/WR in Rd. 2 and then use one of the 3rd round picks on an Edge rusher and the other on an interior lineman. I mean, it all depends on who is available where and whether or not we are actually able to trade down, but yeah, something along those lines. I def. WOULD NOT draft 3 WRS WITH OUR FIRST 3 PICKS without the O-line fixed. Thats insanity. LOL. But thats JMHO.    

Not only do i think Mims in the 3rd is value, but he could see him flying up to mid 2nd round. Teams will love his tape. Love it. I would take him in a heartbeat over guys like Shenault, Tyler Johnson, Reagor etc

DPJ on the other hand may not hear his name called till day 3... early buzz isn't great for the wolverine.

Taking 3 WRs in a row early (on this team) is only insanity cause the contracts would be tough to manage if they all pan out  

[Sonny Werblin]

Well, we stand at #10 now and unless Herbert drops to the Jets, the chance of a trade by the Jets with any team is next to nill.

This is how I see it playing out right now:

1. Cincy - Borrow

2. Skins - Young

3. Lions - Thomas

4. Giants - trade with Indy who picks Tua

5. Fins - Herbert 

6. Jags - Jeudy

7. SD - Okudah

8. Panthers - Derrick Brown 

9. Cards - CeeDee Lamb

10 - Jets -  Wirfs

If a QB happens to fall to 10, the Jets can trade down. And if Jeudy or Lamb fall to 10 they should take them instead of an O lineman and then take O lineman in the second and third rounds.