Gase, Darnold and an interesting statistical split

[HawkeyeJet]

So as I've watched games over the past few months, I can't help but notice how the Jets as well as Darnold practically look like a different team on the opening drive of the game.  They look incredibly calm, confident and precise.  I decided to look at the numbers of Darnold on the 1st drive compared to all other drives.  I couldn't exactly find first drive stats only(and didn't have time to manually crunch the numbers) but I was able to find splits by quarter.  I've included those splits below for both Darnold and the Jets offense as a whole.  The difference between the 1st quarter and the rest of the game is really startling.  Especially the 2nd half.  All parties involved have to figure out a way to buck this trend.  

I legitimately am not trying to invoke a "it's more on Gase or it's more on Darnold" debate.   I just find this extremely interesting on how different of a player and different of an offense we look as the game progresses.  

One last note, look at those average yards to go.  Yuck.  That's also another huge issue.  The amount of negative plays the Jets take on offensive is mind blowing.

Darnold: 

 

Jets

[TNJet]

Gase can't call the game on the fly. He can script very well obviously. 

[Jetster]

4 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

So as I've watched games over the past few months, I can't help but notice how the Jets as well as Darnold practically look like a different team on the opening drive of the game.  They look incredibly calm, confident and precise.  I decided to look at the numbers of Darnold on the 1st drive compared to all other drives.  I couldn't exactly find first drive stats only(and didn't have time to manually crunch the numbers) but I was able to find splits by quarter.  I've included those splits below for both Darnold and the Jets offense as a whole.  The difference between the 1st quarter and the rest of the game is really startling.  Especially the 2nd half.  All parties involved have to figure out a way to buck this trend.  

I legitimately am not trying to invoke a "it's more on Gase or it's more on Darnold" debate.   I just find this extremely interesting on how different of a player and different of an offense we look as the game progresses.  

One last note, look at those average yards to go.  Yuck.  That's also another huge issue.  The amount of negative plays the Jets take on offensive is mind blowing.

Darnold: 

 

Jets

Not rocket science. The Oline is underwhelming & losing both Herndon and then Griffin your 2 TEs would be tough on any team. Jets play behind the sticks way too much. All of those downfield throws even on 3rd & 5 were necessary because the Steelers have a top 3 defense. They weren't going to allow Sam to play catch on short routes. They man up & our guys can't shake intitial close coverage, so Gase is forced to extend his routes. Sam loves the TE in those down & distances and we don't have any with the speed necessary to take advantage of what the Steelers were doing. So we had a lot of tight throws to Crowder, who had a high target rate.

[Losmeister]

2 minutes ago, Jetster said:

Not rocket science. The Oline is underwhelming & losing both Herndon and then Griffin your 2 TEs would be tough on any team. Jets play behind the sticks way too much. All of those downfield throws even on 3rd & 5 were necessary because the Steelers have a top 3 defense. They weren't going to allow Sam to play catch on short routes. They man up & our guys can't shake intitial close coverage, so Gase is forced to extend his routes. Sam loves the TE in those down & distances and we don't have any with the speed necessary to take advantage of what the Steelers were doing. So we had a lot of tight throws to Crowder, who had a high target rate.

drop off in comp% is startling.

3 parts- ol/another wr/sam make a few more throws

[HawkeyeJet]

3 minutes ago, Jetster said:

Not rocket science. The Oline is underwhelming & losing both Herndon and then Griffin your 2 TEs would be tough on any team. Jets play behind the sticks way too much. All of those downfield throws even on 3rd & 5 were necessary because the Steelers have a top 3 defense. They weren't going to allow Sam to play catch on short routes. They man up & our guys can't shake intitial close coverage, so Gase is forced to extend his routes. Sam loves the TE in those down & distances and we don't have any with the speed necessary to take advantage of what the Steelers were doing. So we had a lot of tight throws to Crowder, who had a high target rate.

All fair points, but none really would explain why the 1st quarter production is drastically different from the rest of the game.

[UntouchableCrew]

19 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

All fair points, but none really would explain why the 1st quarter production is drastically different from the rest of the game.

Earlier in the season it felt like it was on the defenses for the other team -- they sat back on the first drive, we picked him apart, then they adjusted and brought pressure which we couldn't handle. But at this point the sample size is too large for that to be it alone.

[nico002]

The scripting thing is nonsense 

if you can script the first drive you can script the second drive 

I feel that Gase is trying too hard to establish the run once we get a lead. We can’t run the ball, so we are left on 3rd medium/long a lot 

 

[JustInFudge]

I dont have an answer to this but I think talent is a huge part of it.  I also liken the first drive, most games, to that of the first 2 rounds of a prize fight.  It's usually feeling each other out and then coming with the heavy stuff.  Which is where talent and play calling factor in.

I think Gase is a bizarre play caller and many Miami fans pointed this out but he seems to go away from what's working throughout the course of a game.  The whole, they'll never expect this element instead of just executing on what you're good at.  That said, I think that too changes with talent.

Sam doesnt have a consistent OL, a consistent run game, a TE or consistent outside threat.  It makes sustaining game long offense dominance difficult.  Hence why I'm all for an all offense offseason.

 

[rangerous]

it doesn't look lke gase is adapting to whatever the defenses are doing in the second half but it's also deceiving without comparing the same type of data from other teams.  all teams should be making adjustments during half time.  does the defense counter the offense better than the offense counters the defense?

[Barry McCockinner]

2 hours ago, HawkeyeJet said:

So as I've watched games over the past few months, I can't help but notice how the Jets as well as Darnold practically look like a different team on the opening drive of the game.  They look incredibly calm, confident and precise.  I decided to look at the numbers of Darnold on the 1st drive compared to all other drives.  I couldn't exactly find first drive stats only(and didn't have time to manually crunch the numbers) but I was able to find splits by quarter.  I've included those splits below for both Darnold and the Jets offense as a whole.  The difference between the 1st quarter and the rest of the game is really startling.  Especially the 2nd half.  All parties involved have to figure out a way to buck this trend.  

 I legitimately am not trying to invoke a "it's more on Gase or it's more on Darnold" debate.   I just find this extremely interesting on how different of a player and different of an offense we look as the game progresses.  

One last note, look at those average yards to go.  Yuck.  That's also another huge issue.  The amount of negative plays the Jets take on offensive is mind blowing.

Darnold: 

 

Jets

Thank you for taking the time to break this down. This pattern has been noted quite a bit lately and I find it interesting. One of the few things I can credit Gase with so far is his ability to script the first drive or two and get us an early score. I think we've scored on 7 opening drives since week 8.

I'd love to know why there is such a drop off after that. People correctly point to the fact that our o-line is trash yet somehow we're able to work around that the first drive of the game at a significant rate. That to me, seems to indicate that the o-line talent gap is not insurmountable with good coaching.

I am a biased Gase hater - but believe that this trend points to his inability to adjust in game. I think maybe he's very good at grinding all week finding some exploitable things on film, but unable to counter in real time. So as other coaches are adjusting on the fly he just doesn't have the time to do what he does during the week working all hours and his players are left at a disadvantage trying to attack a film defense that is different in real time.

 

[Jet Nut]

3 hours ago, HawkeyeJet said:

All fair points, but none really would explain why the 1st quarter production is drastically different from the rest of the game.

Because teams adjust to stopping us and with the OL not allowing us to run or protect when we pass, or commit drive stopping penalties, WRs being shut down and not getting separation, what’s to counter? 

[BallinPB]

We shall not question our lord and savior Adam Gase.  This man is brilliant in making on the fly adjustments in game.  Just look at his 2013 Broncos where he had the overrated Peyton Manning leading his team and still carried the #1 offense in the league.  

[freestater]

2 hours ago, JiF said:

I dont have an answer to this but I think talent is a huge part of it.  I also liken the first drive, most games, to that of the first 2 rounds of a prize fight.  It's usually feeling each other out and then coming with the heavy stuff.  Which is where talent and play calling factor in.

I have always thought that the second drive of the first half and the first drive of the second half shows you what you have in coaching. Those are the two big adjust-on-the-fly and detailed-adjustments drives. 

[freestater]

1 minute ago, BallinPB said:

We shall not question our lord and savior Adam Gase.  This man is brilliant in making on the fly adjustments in game.  Just look at his 2013 Broncos where he had the overrated Peyton Manning leading his team and still carried the #1 offense in the league.  

Pfft... Gase was being held back by Manning. 

[Xtina]

1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I am a biased Gase hater - but believe that this trend points to his inability to adjust in game. I think maybe he's very good at grinding all week finding some exploitable things on film, but unable to counter in real time. So as other coaches are adjusting on the fly he just doesn't have the time to do what he does during the week working all hours and his players are left at a disadvantage trying to attack a film defense that is different in real time.

Very much this. He is a savant of football. He can break down what he is looking at. He can analyze what has already happened ( you see this on the “Adam Gase show “ (gag) where he sounds really intelligent and would impress someone like Chris Johnson. , he cannot apply it to a next step. Not a coach. 

[SummerofSam14]

Two things come to mind: 
 

The Jets are an incredibly inefficient running team, and also do can not execute plays down the field (in part because of Darnold and in part because of the oline). 

[Barry McCockinner]

23 minutes ago, Xtina said:

Very much this. He is a savant of football. He can break down what he is looking at. He can analyze what has already happened ( you see this on the “Adam Gase show “ (gag) where he sounds really intelligent and would impress someone like Chris Johnson. , he cannot apply it to a next step. Not a coach. 

If you think about it a guy like Peyton Manning is the perfect match for a coach like this. Manning can make the in-game adjustments, especially if Gase has given him some juicy exploits to work with.

[southtown24th]

Get to 7-9.

Very, very, very respectable considering:

1. Sam missed 4 games

2. We had 0 backup QB

3. Out For Season--Blake Cashman, Chuma Edoga, Quincy Enunwa, Chris Herndon, Ryan Griffin, Tru Johnson, Ryan Kalil, CJ Mosley, Avery Williamson, Brian Winters, etc. OUT FOR THE SEASON.

 

7-9 is a WIN.

[Barry McCockinner]

14 minutes ago, southtown24th said:

Get to 7-9.

Very, very, very respectable considering:

1. Sam missed 4 games

2. We had 0 backup QB

3. Out For Season--Blake Cashman, Chuma Edoga, Quincy Enunwa, Chris Herndon, Ryan Griffin, Tru Johnson, Ryan Kalil, CJ Mosley, Avery Williamson, Brian Winters, etc. OUT FOR THE SEASON.

 

7-9 is a WIN.

TF does this have to do with the thread?

[Creepy Lurker]

19 minutes ago, southtown24th said:

Get to 7-9.

Very, very, very respectable considering:

1. Sam missed 4 games

2. We had 0 backup QB

3. Out For Season--Blake Cashman, Chuma Edoga, Quincy Enunwa, Chris Herndon, Ryan Griffin, Tru Johnson, Ryan Kalil, CJ Mosley, Avery Williamson, Brian Winters, etc. OUT FOR THE SEASON.

 

7-9 is a WIN.

Agreed. I projected 7-9 to 9-7 IF relatively healthy, which obviously we weren’t. We had a very easy schedule so 9-7 this year is like 7-9 in a normal year. We weren’t as bad as I thought overall despite our deficiencies and injuries.

We still have a lot of work to do and the only real hope is Sam elevating the team. That’s out best shot at becoming a wild card team. Support Sam and let him elevate the team to mask the deficiencies. 

[greenwichjetfan]

2 hours ago, HawkeyeJet said:

So as I've watched games over the past few months, I can't help but notice how the Jets as well as Darnold practically look like a different team on the opening drive of the game.  They look incredibly calm, confident and precise.  I decided to look at the numbers of Darnold on the 1st drive compared to all other drives.  I couldn't exactly find first drive stats only(and didn't have time to manually crunch the numbers) but I was able to find splits by quarter.  I've included those splits below for both Darnold and the Jets offense as a whole.  The difference between the 1st quarter and the rest of the game is really startling.  Especially the 2nd half.  All parties involved have to figure out a way to buck this trend.  

I legitimately am not trying to invoke a "it's more on Gase or it's more on Darnold" debate.   I just find this extremely interesting on how different of a player and different of an offense we look as the game progresses.  

One last note, look at those average yards to go.  Yuck.  That's also another huge issue.  The amount of negative plays the Jets take on offensive is mind blowing.

Darnold: 

 

Jets

Jets O has scored 7 times on opening drives. 5 TDs, 2 FGs
- Average # of plays/possession for the 7 opening scoring drives: 10.83 plays
- Average # of yards/possession for the 7 opening scoring drives: 74.83 yards

Jets O on the 78 possessions after scoring on opening drives. 10 TDs, 11 FGs
- Average # of plays/possession after opening scoring drive: 4.91 plays
- Average # of yards/possession after opening scoring drive: 19.24 yards

[Barry McCockinner]

12 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Jets O has scored 7 times on opening drives. 5 TDs, 2 FGs
- Average # of plays/possession for the 7 opening scoring drives: 10.83 plays
 - Average # of yards/possession for the 7 opening scoring drives: 74.83 yards

 Jets O on the 78 possessions after scoring on opening drives. 10 TDs, 11 FGs
 - Average # of plays/possession after opening scoring drive: 4.91 plays
- Average # of yards/possession after opening scoring drive: 19.24 yards

yikes

do you have the overall avg plays/poss and yards/poss?

[GreenFish]

I think it comes down to the OL. Gase can script the perfect plays but after a while, your O has to establish its will on the opponent. Our OL does not allow us to do that.

Gase also doesn’t seem flexible. seems like he wants to use the pass to open up the run. Ok so first couple drives are usually Darnold hitting short routes. Then this is where we get in trouble. Gase then tries to mix in deep passes and more runs. Well... Darnold hasn’t been hitting those deep passes and Bell hasn’t been productive. Gase will continue to ram that square peg.

Getting an OL that can open up lanes will go a long way. The only thing missing is going to be Darnold developing his long ball accuracy. He was a bit better last year. So we will see.

[JoJoTownsell1]

1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

TF does this have to do with the thread?

How dare anyone come into a gase bashing thread and be positive!!!

[greenwichjetfan]

2 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

yikes

do you have the overall avg plays/poss and yards/poss?

I don't. I was going to do that next but got wrapped up in some actual work. Maybe I'll get to it later today or tomorrow, but I also hate myself for spending so much time on aggregating data that continues to tell us what we already knew from his time in MIA and continues to prove here on the Jets. At this point, the people who care to be convinced should already be convinced, and everyone else is already dug into their position. 

[southtown24th]

1 hour ago, Creepy Lurker said:

Agreed. I projected 7-9 to 9-7 IF relatively healthy, which obviously we weren’t. We had a very easy schedule so 9-7 this year is like 7-9 in a normal year. We weren’t as bad as I thought overall despite our deficiencies and injuries.

We still have a lot of work to do and the only real hope is Sam elevating the team. That’s out best shot at becoming a wild card team. Support Sam and let him elevate the team to mask the deficiencies. 

correct.

start with a legitimate offensive line.

[southtown24th]

1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

TF does this have to do with the thread?

TF

[Barry McCockinner]

11 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

How dare anyone come into a gase bashing thread and be positive!!!

Gase bashing thread? It's a thread about our first drive/quarter offensive success and lack of thereafter. Sprinkling some irrelevant pro-gase fairy dust in the middle doesn't contribute to the discussion at hand or convince anyone of anything.

[CrazyCarl40]

Gase can’t counter puncher when defenses adjust. It’s that simple. 

[Barry McCockinner]

2 minutes ago, southtown24th said:

correct.

start with a legitimate offensive line.

I agree the o-line needs serious upgrades. Why do you think have we had so much success on the first drive of games with that flawed o-line?

[HawkeyeJet]

41 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Jets O has scored 7 times on opening drives. 5 TDs, 2 FGs
- Average # of plays/possession for the 7 opening scoring drives: 10.83 plays
- Average # of yards/possession for the 7 opening scoring drives: 74.83 yards

Jets O on the 78 possessions after scoring on opening drives. 10 TDs, 11 FGs
- Average # of plays/possession after opening scoring drive: 4.91 plays
- Average # of yards/possession after opening scoring drive: 19.24 yards

Great info.  That is absolutely incredible disparity.

[DJF71]

Look at what Drake has done since leaving Gase.  Look at what Tannehill has done. Look what happened to Bell under Gase.  He is 100% the problem and not a head coach. Darnold will flourish once Gase is gone.

[JoJoTownsell1]

6 minutes ago, DJF71 said:

Look at what Drake has done since leaving Gase.  Look at what Tannehill has done. Look what happened to Bell under Gase.  He is 100% the problem and not a head coach. Darnold will flourish once Gase is gone.

Gase was 8-5 with Tannehill in 2016. 

Gase was 0-0 with Tannehill in 2017

Gase was 5-6 with Tannehill in 2018. 

Titans are 6-4 with Tannehill in 2019

Only in the eyes of SOJFs is there some great discrepancy in Tannehill's record with and without Gase. 

[THE BARON]

Because Gase has rocks in his head.  Bad coach, especially for Darnold, who could do a LOT more in a system better suited for his skill set.  Gase was a big mistake..

[Saul Goodman]

Feeding Bell the ball kills us as the game goes on.

With his YPC, if we gave him the ball every down we’d literally be punting on every possession. Every carry he gets reduces our chances of getting first downs and scoring points. And you’ve got fans here bashing Gase for not giving Bell the ball more lol

Now, this is not to say that it’s Bells fault, it’s the offensive line, which goes back to...Mike ******* Maccagnan.

Next year our offense will look completely different, more along the lines of what we see on first possession this year.