Not “Seeing Ghosts” anymore

[JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF]

Just put some real NFL players around him.  Especially OL (where there currently are NONE).

 

[JetsFanatic]

Gase doing a great job with him!

[JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF]

Next year Top 10....then Top 5 to Top 3 thereafter.....this is for those who “like Stats”.  I actually like stats too but in San Darnold’s case they really don’t tell that accurate of a story.  Consider that he put these stats up with Less than 2 Seconds to throw more than HALF the time and receivers who virtually NEVER get separation.  Again Mr. Douglas, more real NFL 
players around Darnold please....

 

[Barry McCockinner]

Let's look at the portion of the schedule where we faced mostly bottom feeder pass defenses and project it over an entire season which btw Darnold has never played.

[Warfish]

29 minutes ago, JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF said:

Just put some real NFL players around him.  Especially OL (where there currently are NONE).

 

This is called Cherry Picking.  It's a very poor way to look at things.

First, you don't get to just drop all the games he played prior to this run.

Second, you don't get to ignore that most of the teams and defenses he's played in this run are horrible.  The worst in the NFL.  

Third, you don't get to take a cherry picked subsection of play and "annualize" it, as if that means something larger.  That's just stupid.  We have annualized numbers for Darnold....they're his 2019 actual stats.

What's sad to me is even "annualizing" his cherry-picked run, he still doesn't get over 4,000 yards, or 30 TD's.  That's still sub-top-10 production, even if "annualized".

The usual Homer Brigade will self-pleasure over this post, but to me, it's another sign Darnold may not, in fact, be a legit top-10 type FQB.  4,000+, 30 TD+, 10 wins+.  Get all three, in actuallity, not "annualized" cherry picked numbers, and you're a legit FQB and maybe even great.  Till then, just more hot air tbqh.

Bah.  Humbug.   

[Warfish]

29 minutes ago, JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF said:

I actually like stats too but in San Darnold’s case they really don’t tell that accurate of a story.

[southparkcpa]

Darnold is the least of my concerns.   But if I had to give a fan visual with no stats I would say he seems to have a weaker  second half.   
 

would love to see more scoring in 3rd and 4th.  

[JoJoTownsell1]

32 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Let's look at the portion of the schedule where we faced mostly bottom feeder pass defenses and project it over an entire season which btw Darnold has never played.

Breaking news: QBs do better against weaker defenses. 

[Bowles Movement]

11 minutes ago, Warfish said:

This is called Cherry Picking.  It's a very poor way to look at things.

First, you don't get to just drop all the games he played prior to this run.

Second, you don't get to ignore that most of the teams and defenses he's played in this run are horrible.  The worst in the NFL.  

Third, you don't get to take a cherry picked subsection of play and "annualize" it, as if that means something larger.  That's just stupid.  We have annualized numbers for Darnold....they're his 2019 actual stats.

What's sad to me is even "annualizing" his cherry-picked run, he still doesn't get over 4,000 yards, or 30 TD's.  That's still sub-top-10 production, even if "annualized".

The usual Homer Brigade will self-pleasure over this post, but to me, it's another sign Darnold may not, in fact, be a legit top-10 type FQB.  4,000+, 30 TD+, 10 wins+.  Get all three, in actuallity, not "annualized" cherry picked numbers, and you're a legit FQB and maybe even great.  Till then, just more hot air tbqh.

Bah.  Humbug.   

Actually of the last 8 games, Darnold will have played against the 3, 4 and 5 rated NFL defenses in Balt Pitt and Buffalo.  If he finishes strong against Buffalo thats a pretty good string of play and remember he started the season with mono and played mostly thru it.  Thats like trying to play QB with one hand tied behind your back.   But Ill bet that you'll somehow discount those games to fit your negative view of the player.   

No one is saying he is a finished product but the signs and progress are encouraging.  Sorry that you dont see that.

[Villain The Foe]

Not a fan of the cherry picking.

Sam flashed some really good traits this season but has shown that he has more to learn.

 

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, JetsFanatic said:

Gase doing a great job with him!

 

[Jets723]

7 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

Not a fan of the cherry picking.

Sam flashed some really good traits this season but has shown that he has more to learn.

 

Absolutely.  I don’t think anyone will disagree with that.  I’ve mentioned issues that he has to clean up. However you do have to take into account the lack of protection and weapons(other than Robby and Crowder).  Not saying that those are the reasons for his issues but I think we can all agree that a better oline and a couple more options in offense will make his life a lot more easier 

[Warfish]

11 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

Sorry that you dont see that.

And I am sorry you don't understand why this is a faulty statistical analysis.  

Quote

But Ill bet that you'll somehow discount those games to fit your negative view of the player.

I don't have a "negative view" of Sam Darnold. 

To a hammer, everything looks like a nail.  To a Homer, everything looks like negativity.  /shrug.

[docdhc]

Look who’s number 1!  Tannehill. I don’t know what that says about Gase if anything. 

[Barry McCockinner]

24 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

Actually of the last 8 games, Darnold will have played against the 3, 4 and 5 rated NFL defenses in Balt Pitt and Buffalo.  If he finishes strong against Buffalo thats a pretty good string of play and remember he started the season with mono and played mostly thru it.  Thats like trying to play QB with one hand tied behind your back.   But Ill bet that you'll somehow discount those games to fit your negative view of the player.   

No one is saying he is a finished product but the signs and progress are encouraging.  Sorry that you dont see that.

The Jets played the Bills week 1 and face the JV version this week. Pass D rankings of teams we've faced since NE.

jax 20
mia (x2) 28
nyg 26
was 14
oak 25
cin 21
bal 5 
pitt 7 

[Bowles Movement]

Just now, Warfish said:

And I am sorry you don't understand why this is a faulty statistical analysis.  

I don't have a "negative view" of Sam Darnold. 

To a hammer, everything looks like a nail.  To a Homer, everything looks like negativity.  /shrug.

Its not 'statistical analysis" but it is an encouraging trend.  In evaluating young players, its nice to see generally improved play and positive results.   

Playing well against three of the top 5 NFL defenses would be a nice way to end the year and suggests the needle is moving up.    Still some people prefer the glass half empty view.

[morny]

I love Darnold, and strongly believe in him, but it is cherry-picking somewhat. At least you still included the Jacksonville game, which a lot of cherry-picked stats exclude. I do understand the idea of excluding the Pats game - statistically, that game was a complete and utter outlier, unlike anything from his this year and it skews his stats.

 

However, the Pats game is the type of game we need him to start performing - he's been pretty poor in-division so far (in particular, he's been awful against the Dolphins, who should be the easiest team for him to beat up on). 

 

He needs to start performing in division games, because if we can start winning some of these (sweep the Dolphins, win the home game against the Bills and we're sitting at 8-7 going into the last week and looking at a potential playoff place). 

 

We also need him to play a 16 game season - there's no point making up stats to project over a 16 game season. Until he actually completes a 16 game season, it's all hokum. 

 

And I reiterate, again, that I'm a big Darnold fan and think he has all the potential to be a FQB. Whether he fulfils that potential will be seen - i'm very worried Gase ruins him, but time will tell. 

[Villain The Foe]

38 minutes ago, Jets723 said:

Absolutely.  I don’t think anyone will disagree with that.  I’ve mentioned issues that he has to clean up. However you do have to take into account the lack of protection and weapons(other than Robby and Crowder).  Not saying that those are the reasons for his issues but I think we can all agree that a better oline and a couple more options in offense will make his life a lot more easier 

Facts. The overall talent around him could be much better. Coaching as well. 

What we need, most need is a front office who can hit on draft picks. If we can do that instead of trying to depend on free agency and cap space every single year then Sam will have a real shot. 

 

The kid is talented enough to develop. That's all that matters. 

[Jets723]

Just now, Villain The Foe said:

Facts. The overall talent around him could be much better. Coaching as well. 

What we need most need is a front office who can hit on draft picks. If we can do that instead of trying to depend on free agency and cap space every single year then Sam will have a real shot. 

 

The kid is talented enough to develop. That's all that matters. 

Agreed.  I want to make it clear I’m not making excuses,  I’m the first one to admit the Sam needs to stop some of those dumb throws and use his feet more.  However it’s a fact that he has little support compared to Lamar and Allen.  I’m not taking anything away from those two because they took a MAJOR step forward this year and deserve praise BUT having unlimited protection and more weapons makes it much easier on any QB 

[Sperm Edwards]

He needs to stop making the bad throws and instead he should only make the good throws

I feel like we're in familiar territory somehow

[Jets723]

1 minute ago, Sperm Edwards said:

He needs to stop making the bad throws and instead he should only make the good throws

I feel like we're in familiar territory somehow

Every QB can make questionable throws sometimes even the best ones.  

[greenwichjetfan]

1 hour ago, JetsFanatic said:

Gase doing a great job with him!

Check out who’s number 1.

[Barry McCockinner]

46 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Breaking news: QBs do better against weaker defenses. 

That's kind of the point. Picking out the weak part of the schedule and projecting it over 16 games is dishonest at best. Who are you trying to convince, yourself?

[Warfish]

3 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

Its not 'statistical analysis" but it is an encouraging trend.

I'm glad you agree that it's not a valid statistical analysis.  

3 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

In evaluating young players, its nice to see generally improved play and positive results.

It is.  Although it always must be viewed as a whole, not selectively.  

3 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

Playing well against three of the top 5 NFL defenses would be a nice way to end the year and suggests the needle is moving up.

First, maybe you should wait till he actually plays well against Buffalo's #1 starters on Defense before making that claim?

Second, how well did he play against the two top-10 Defenses?

He was 18-32 (56%, well below the Mendonza-line of 60%), for 218 Yards for 2 TD's and 1 INT vs. Balt.  And we lost, badly. His play was solid in the lopsided loss.  It was not above average or exceptional in any real way.  

He was 16-26 (62% yay!) for 183 Yards (ouch)  with 1 TD and 0 INT's vs. Pitt.  That's a Sanchez-type line of production, again, the win was awesome, I loved it, and the TD throw itself was absolutely exceptional on both ends, but overall this is not a "great" or "encouraging" stat line, it's a bit better than Buffalo's Allan, and a on-par with Cleveland's Mayfield vs. Pittsburgh, two guys THIS forum say suck horrible bumholes at QB, lol.  It's a near-mirror of now-benched Ryan Findley, lol.  Encouraging IMO would be being better than these guys, not directly on-par with these guys.

3 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

Still some people prefer the glass half empty view.

I'll repeat:  To a hammer, everything looks like a nail.  To a Homer, everything looks like negativity.

[mphtrilogy]

The dude is just 22, looking forward to his continued progress, hopefully he is a top 5 qb by age 25...

[Barry McCockinner]

1 minute ago, Warfish said:

I'm glad you agree that it's not a valid statistical analysis.  

It is.  Although it always must be viewed as a whole, not selectively.  

First, maybe you should wait till he actually plays well against Buffalo's #1 starters on Defense before making that claim?

Second, how well did he play against the two top-10 Defenses?

He was 18-32 (56%, well below the Mendonza-line of 60%), for 218 Yards for 2 TD's and 1 INT vs. Balt.  And we lost, badly. His play was solid in the lopsided loss.  It was not above average or exceptional in any real way.  

He was 16-26 (62% yay!) for 183 Yards (ouch)  with 1 TD and 0 INT's vs. Pitt.  That's a Sanchez-type line of production, again, the win was awesome, I loved it, and the TD throw itself was absolutely exceptional on both ends, but overall this is not a "great" or "encouraging" stat line, it's a bit better than Buffalo's Allan, and a on-par with Cleveland's Mayfield vs. Pittsburgh, two guys THIS forum say suck horrible bumholes at QB, lol.  It's a near-mirror of now-benched Ryan Findley, lol.  Encouraging IMO would be being better than these guys, not directly on-par with these guys.

I'll repeat:  To a hammer, everything looks like a nail.  To a Homer, everything looks like negativity.

also - 4 combined fumbles in the Balt & Pitt games.

[Barry McCockinner]

Just now, mphtrilogy said:

The dude is just 22, looking forward to his continued progress, hopefully he is a top 5 qb by age 25...

I was going to say - we should point out that he's only 22 years old.

[morny]

8 minutes ago, Jets723 said:

Agreed.  I want to make it clear I’m not making excuses,  I’m the first one to admit the Sam needs to stop some of those dumb throws and use his feet more.  However it’s a fact that he has little support compared to Lamar and Allen.  I’m not taking anything away from those two because they took a MAJOR step forward this year and deserve praise BUT having unlimited protection and more weapons makes it much easier on any QB 

This is true, but it's not just about talent around them - it's about coaching/organisational decisions. 

 

The Ravens have completely changed their whole scheme and way of playing for Jackson, and he is running in a system which is perfectly suited to his skills and is profiting greatly for it. 

 

The Bills realised that Allen is, basically, Cam Newton and deciding that rather than giving him a bunch of big-receivers to contest his very, very dubious jump balls, they'd combine (a) safe slot guys to get easy, safe completions and (b) a fantastic deep threat for Allen's big arm, where if he misses it's not the end of the world. They also bulked up the o-line so that his running skills could be best utilised. 

 

Meanwhile, the Jets mumble along trying to force a young QB, who throws brilliantly on the move, into being a statuesque pocket passer behind a paper-thin offensive line. 

 

At least our defence can run-stuff though.....

[Villain The Foe]

23 minutes ago, Jets723 said:

Agreed.  I want to make it clear I’m not making excuses,  I’m the first one to admit the Sam needs to stop some of those dumb throws and use his feet more.  However it’s a fact that he has little support compared to Lamar and Allen.  I’m not taking anything away from those two because they took a MAJOR step forward this year and deserve praise BUT having unlimited protection and more weapons makes it much easier on any QB 

No doubt. 

Sam is going to make 2nd year mistakes. And guess what? Next year, he's going to make 3rd year QB mistakes. However, stats aside, the eye test knows if we're seeing a guy who is progressing. I have no complaints this season with Darnold.

Im just glad that Sam didnt have a sophomore year where he regressed. His biggest problem was mono. Besides that he had 2 bad weeks of play (NE and JAX) outside of that, he's been what I expected...and would have been better had he had more than Anderson on the outside and Bell at RB but with a crap Oline. 

Fix that Oline, clean up some coaching mistakes and give him another legit threat on the outside and offensively Sam would be in a really good space. 

[Jets723]

Just now, morny said:

This is true, but it's not just about talent around them - it's about coaching/organisational decisions. 

 

The Ravens have completely changed their whole scheme and way of playing for Jackson, and he is running in a system which is perfectly suited to his skills and is profiting greatly for it. 

 

The Bills realised that Allen is, basically, Cam Newton and deciding that rather than giving him a bunch of big-receivers to contest his very, very dubious jump balls, they'd combine (a) safe slot guys to get easy, safe completions and (b) a fantastic deep threat for Allen's big arm, where if he misses it's not the end of the world. They also bulked up the o-line so that his running skills could be best utilised. 

 

Meanwhile, the Jets mumble along trying to force a young QB, who throws brilliantly on the move, into being a statuesque pocket passer behind a paper-thin offensive line. 

 

At least our defence can run-stuff though.....

That’s true.  Look I never wanted Gase to be hired but at this point he is gonna be here next year so hopefully he helps Sam next year.  Changing coaches every year I think would hurt Sam’s development too.  But the Bills and Ravens built a great Oline where Lamar and Allen not only have time but more confidence to make big plays.  Sam most of the time is running for his life.  He still makes some dumb decisions but I think a main reason for that is because he presses too much and feels he needs to overcompensate 

[Jets723]

2 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

No doubt. 

Sam is going to make 2nd year mistakes. And guess what? Next year, he's going to make 3rd year QB mistakes. However, stats aside, the eye test knows if we're seeing a guy who is progressing. I have no complaints this season with Darnold.

Im just glad that Sam didnt have a sophomore year where he regressed. His biggest problem was mono. Besides that he had 2 bad weeks of play (NE and JAX) outside of that, he's been what I expected...and would have been better had he had more than Anderson on the outside and Bell at RB but with a crap Oline. 

Fix that Oline, clean up some coaching mistakes and give him another legit threat on the outside and offensively Sam would be in a really good space. 

That’s a good fair Post 

[peebag]

All I know is that I would have drafted him before Baker.

[Villain The Foe]

Just now, Jets723 said:

That’s a good fair Post 

Thank you. Contrary to what you may have read. I am a Jets fan. 

 

Also contrary to what you may have read "from me". 

Im also a Browns fan. 

 

?

 

Im invested enough to admit that! 

 

P.S. Never do anything so stupid as to start off a Jets fan and decide to, of all other options, pick the damn Browns to follow. It's like catching Mono, then topping it off with gonorrhea

[Jets723]

Just now, Villain The Foe said:

Thank you. Contrary to what you may have read. I am a Jets fan. 

 

Also contrary to what you may have read "from me". 

Im also a Browns fan. 

 

?

 

Im invested enough to admit that! 

 

P.S. Never do anything so stupid as to start off a Jets fan and decide to, of all other options, pick the damn Browns to follow. It's like catching Mono, then topping it off with gonorrhea

No I knew you were a jets fan.  I just thought you were a Baker Mayfield fan too but that’s cool. The only other team I root for sometimes is actually Dallas.  My father is actually a big Cowboys fan and I grew up during their Dynasty.  However whenever they play each other I root for the Jets

[isired]

What I don't understand is, if you're 'annualizing' - why not just choose the best game?

320/464 5,040yds 32TD/0INT

What a season!