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Robbie wants 10M+

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5 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Maccagnan passed on Terry McLaurin to draft Jachai Polite. McLaurin has played in the worst QB situation in the league this year:

Terry McLaurin: 58 catches, 919 yards, 15.8 yp, 7 TDs, 62.37 catch%

Robby Anderson: 49 catches, 761 yards, 15.5 ypr, 5 TDs, 55.04 catch%

Pretty sure 90% of this board was saying we should draft Mclaurin...an absolute no brainer.

Our gm was more clueless than most of this board. Now that’s saying something.

 

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Yes. 

One known, but limited use, talent for the chance of two materially more vital talents. 

A risk I am willing to take to improve this talent-deficient team, especially on Offense.

The impact difference between Adams and an average Safety is not material IMO.

No risk, no reward.  

At Safety.

He's been a Jet now for three seasons.  We've gone 4 wins, 5 wins and 6 wins (so far).  He's made the difference to what, a win or two max over that time?

I'll risk a Pro Bowl Strong Safety to potentially get a Pro Bowl WR and Pro Bowl O-Lineman.

Yes, it could fail.  So?  What's the worst that happens, we go 4, 5 or 6 wins?  

Moving Adams will not make us worse as a team.  It'll make Darnold better by supporting him with better talent. 

Making Darnold better > keeping Adams.

I think he is a Strong Safety, an extemely low-impact position.  Most of his stats come because he's playing LB and Edge, not Safety.  

Anderson is a #3 WR.  Best at deep threat, weak in most other aspects.  I'm fine seeing him walk.

Again, we can do better the Anderson and Adams led Jets of the past few years.

Well then we’ll disagree on all points.  I don’t see any logic of downgrading talent to bring in unknown talent.  And when I see Adams play a TE like he did a week ago, when I see him sack a QB, when I see him stuff a RB I don’t get the “extremely” low impact line, especially when you never hear it from anyone other than JN members.  Ones who believe Watson or Mahomes was passed up for Adams and because of that piece of nonsense just can’t root for one of our own

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22 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Ones who believe Watson or Mahomes was passed up for Adams and because of that piece of nonsense just can’t root for one of our own

we needed a QB and we picked Adams. 5-7 wins/season  1 INT/season....???

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12 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Well then we’ll disagree on all points.

I'm ok with that.  :)

12 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

I don’t see any logic of downgrading talent to bring in unknown talent.

Calculated risk and weighting of value.

If we're to win a title, it will not be because of Jamal Adams.  It will be because of Sam Darnold.

Every asset should be utilized to build a championship offense around Sam Darnold.

 

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8 hours ago, Losmeister said:

we needed a QB and we picked Adams. 5-7 wins/season  1 INT/season....???

And no matter how we look at it now, Macc wasn't drafting a QB.  Had nothing to do with Adams.

 

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8 hours ago, Warfish said:

I'm ok with that.  :)

Calculated risk and weighting of value.

If we're to win a title, it will not be because of Jamal Adams.  It will be because of Sam Darnold.

Every asset should be utilized to build a championship offense around Sam Darnold.

 

And there is nothing close to a way of knowing that it would happen if you used Adams picks on offensive players.  And D does help win games, its not only about Darnold

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5 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

And there is nothing close to a way of knowing that it would happen if you used Adams picks on offensive players.

True.

There is also nothing that says it won't happen, although the odds are what they are.

There is also nothing that guarantees Adams plays well in 2020.  Or is healthy.  Or is motivated.

Life is full of risks.  And rewards.

5 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

 And D does help win games, its not only about Darnold

Well, agree to disagree then. 

Did you enjoy being the 31st ranked offense this year while also telling everyone who'd listen how great Darnold and Gase are?

I'd like to be a top 10 offense.  How about you?

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14 hours ago, Warfish said:

I'm ok with that.  :)

Calculated risk and weighting of value.

If we're to win a title, it will not be because of Jamal Adams.  It will be because of Sam Darnold.

Every asset should be utilized to build a championship offense around Sam Darnold.

 

I agree with the premise but after 40 years of Jets fandom, I cannot and will not place any hope or value in a new GMs drafting skills. I need a year for JD to prove it before I could get behind trading an all pro (even at a low impact position) for magic beans/lottery tickets.

Of course nothing I say or think matters, JD will do what he does. And GMs all overestimate their drafting ability. You see it all the time moving starters for a 4th rounder. While as a long time Jets fan, a 4th has a value of precisely zero to me.

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13 minutes ago, jgb said:

I agree with the premise but after 40 years of Jets fandom, I cannot and will not place any hope or value in a new GMs drafting skills.

At some point, if we're to have success, a Jets GM will HAVE to draft well.

Past failures do not cause future failures.  Douglas is not Macc.  He may (or may not) suck, but even I'm not bitter and cynical enough to pre-damn as a failure a new GM before he's even made his first draft picks.

13 minutes ago, jgb said:

I need a year for JD to prove it before I could get behind trading an all pro (even at a low impact position) for magic beans/lottery tickets.

I don't.  Even an "average" #1 WR (Picked in Round 1) and #1 O-Lineman (Picked, say, in Round 3) is better than having Adams.

Adams is, IMO, the single most over-valued player we have.  His impact on wins/losses is simply not that great, "all pro" or not.  

Getting Darnold two of the many pieces he needs to thrive would have that impact.  We win on Darnold, not on Adams.  The Rex-Era of "Defense Wins Championships" is long proved dead in NY.

13 minutes ago, jgb said:

Of course nothing I say or think matters, JD will do what he does.

Yup, hasn't hired me as Asst. GM yet either, lol!

13 minutes ago, jgb said:

And GMs all overestimate their drafting ability. You see it all the time moving starters for a 4th rounder. While as a long time Jets fan, a 4th has a value of precisely zero to me.

Adams has value to me only for what we can get from him for Darnold.  I could care less about having an "all pro (box) safety" whose claim to fame is mostly filling in on pass rush for our horrible D-linemen and Linebackers in Williams "gimmick us some pass rush" scheme.  I mean, lets be real, Adams fame isn't from game-changing INT's and pass coverage, it's all safety blitzes and the occasional forced fumbles because he's effectively a half-ass Edge player and full time run stopper. Look at his numbers vs. an average strong safety, the falloff simply isn't that great and definitely isn't game breaking. 

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Keenan Allen signed his deal in 2016. Irrelevant. In fact he could well agitate for a new deal this off season especially  if Rivers leaves and Chargers are facing a rebuild.
Tyler Boyd—he is actually a pretty good comp for Robbie.

Keenan Allen also ends upon IR every other year.


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No way Robbie Anderson is worth 10 plus million a year the guy is not a #1 or even a #2 WR he is a slot guy who only having success running straight routes. He has a skinny frame he isnt a great physical type WR who can get you a ton of receptions on short heavy traffic routes in the redzone. He isnt even Darnolds favorite target Crowder is. So why are the Jets going to overpay for another slot guy who has a history of disciplinary problems outside of football who never had a 1000 yard season. Robby Anderson is a dime a dozen just like Enuwa was neither one of these guys ever looked good. The fans fall in love with everybody and want to keep them all,  let him walk. There are better options. Right now on the roster I think Vycint Smith has potential to be a better WR then Anderson ever could be before even drafting and hitting free agency. 
 

Stopped reading as soon as you called him a slot guy. If you think there is anything about him that qualifies him to be in the slot, it’s pretty clear you don’t understand football.


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Maccagnan passed on Terry McLaurin to draft Jachai Polite. McLaurin has played in the worst QB situation in the league this year:
Terry McLaurin: 58 catches, 919 yards, 15.8 yp, 7 TDs, 62.37 catch%
Robby Anderson: 49 catches, 761 yards, 15.5 ypr, 5 TDs, 55.04 catch%


Even when losing at least WAS still threw the ball. I find it hard to believe how quickly fans forget that we went through 3 games THIS SEASON (almost an entire quarter of the year) where we hardly attempted any passes and when we did they ended up in like 15 sacks so all we did was behind scrimmage and RB dump offs. Those 3 games skew every offensive stat because we basically put up 0 numbers. It was an unprecedented stretch of putrid offensive football.


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On 12/28/2019 at 6:41 AM, New York Mick said:

You think he’s worth more then players like Keenan Allen and Tyler Boyd?

Neither of those guys are unrestricted free agents in 2020. In fact neither of those players had ever reached free agency by the time they signed their deals.

Allen's contract was signed back in 2016, and Boyd's was from before the 2019 games began (his contract is based on 2019 rates; Anderson's will be based on 2020's going rate and rightly so).

IMO we're very likely to see Allen sign another extension between now and July, and you'll see how Allen's command today is a lot more than it was in 2016. A 28 year-old back-to-back-to-back current probowler, he'll get at least $18MM/year on this extension with no problem, and probably more. So if you want to compare then compare it to that number not the contract he signed. The Chargers couldn't get Allen to sign a new contract for $11MM/year anymore either. 

Anderson is just in a different situation than Allen/Boyd were in when they signed their deals. He will be a full UFA in March, and can now take advantage of competitive bids from multiple teams. As of Sunday night, he'll have no more injury risk (and even now, while his one-game risk of a major injury isn't literally zero, it's very low). He no longer has a financial incentive to do anything other than wait around for the highest bidder. That is, unless the Jets come in with a number that meets or exceeds his expected highest bid (like Maccagnan did with Winters and then Enunwa). 

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4 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Neither of those guys are unrestricted free agents in 2020. In fact neither of those players had ever reached free agency by the time they signed their deals.

Allen's contract was signed back in 2016, and Boyd's was from before the 2019 games began (his contract is based on 2019 rates; Anderson's will be based on 2020's going rate and rightly so).

IMO we're very likely to see Allen sign another extension between now and July, and you'll see how Allen's command today is a lot more than it was in 2016. A 28 year-old back-to-back-to-back current probowler, he'll get at least $18MM/year on this extension with no problem, and probably more. So if you want to compare then compare it to that number not the contract he signed. The Chargers couldn't get Allen to sign a new contract for $11MM/year anymore either. 

Anderson is just in a different situation than Allen/Boyd were in when they signed their deals. He will be a full UFA in March, and can now take advantage of competitive bids from multiple teams. As of Sunday night, he'll have no more injury risk (and even now, while his one-game risk of a major injury isn't literally zero, it's very low). He no longer has a financial incentive to do anything other than wait around for the highest bidder. That is, unless the Jets come in with a number that meets or exceeds his expected highest bid (like Maccagnan did with Winters and then Enunwa). 

Push comes to shove, you resign him? I say no.

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On 12/28/2019 at 12:45 AM, Bowles Movement said:

First I’ve heard this.  Source?

It’ll play out in time. Watch and see. 

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11 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Neither of those guys are unrestricted free agents in 2020. In fact neither of those players had ever reached free agency by the time they signed their deals.

Allen's contract was signed back in 2016, and Boyd's was from before the 2019 games began (his contract is based on 2019 rates; Anderson's will be based on 2020's going rate and rightly so).

IMO we're very likely to see Allen sign another extension between now and July, and you'll see how Allen's command today is a lot more than it was in 2016. A 28 year-old back-to-back-to-back current probowler, he'll get at least $18MM/year on this extension with no problem, and probably more. So if you want to compare then compare it to that number not the contract he signed. The Chargers couldn't get Allen to sign a new contract for $11MM/year anymore either. 

Anderson is just in a different situation than Allen/Boyd were in when they signed their deals. He will be a full UFA in March, and can now take advantage of competitive bids from multiple teams. As of Sunday night, he'll have no more injury risk (and even now, while his one-game risk of a major injury isn't literally zero, it's very low). He no longer has a financial incentive to do anything other than wait around for the highest bidder. That is, unless the Jets come in with a number that meets or exceeds his expected highest bid (like Maccagnan did with Winters and then Enunwa). 

Those worked out well. 
I’m too lazy to look, is there a list of guys who signed in 2019

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Surprised there isn’t a post about everyone’s favorite and how much money he wants.  Surprising since he’s never been a 1K receiver in his career.  I’d imagine he won’t be resigning here then.

Can CeeDee do what Robby can at a fraction of the price?


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18 hours ago, bla bla bla said:

At $12m a year that would make Robby the 17th highest paid WR. If we can sign him for $10m we absolutely should. My prediction is 4 years $48m if he hits the open market.

Totally agree, but even that is only telling half the story that makes it look like we should expect him to command less. You really have to look at the more recent signings, not deals that are 2-4 years old, with more emphasis on what players got as UFAs not as extensions.

47 minutes ago, New York Mick said:

Those worked out well. 
I’m too lazy to look, is there a list of guys who signed in 2019

2019 UFA WR contracts: Tyrell Williams, Golden Tate, John Brown, Adam Humphries, Jamison Crowder, Cole Beasley

  • Depending on one's POV, you could also include Enunwa since his 2018 season was over and this was accepted because it matched or exceeded the expected highest bid a couple months later.

2018 UFA WR contracts: Jarvis Landry, Allen Robinson, Sammy Watkins, Paul Richardson, Marquise Lee, Michael Crabtree, Danny Amendola

When certain players - particularly those with what's seen as untapped potential - reach free agency, it's quite common to see unexpectedly high bids out of line with their production or just unexpectedly high because people underestimated the amount of inflation. Even more so when there just aren't that many at this position that reach free agency in the first place, and even more so when it's a position (like WR) that usually takes a while for draft picks to ripen into an above-average starter.

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1 hour ago, section314 said:

Push comes to shove, you resign him? I say no.

I'd be surprised if he's available for $10MM per, but if he is they should pounce on it before he and his agent come to their senses. Total no-brainer at that money.

You sign him to that, but don't let that change any draft plans or player rankings (i.e. don't pass on a great WR prospect in round 1 because now the position's been filled). Ideally a 2020 pick will start hitting his stride right as Anderson's 1-2 guaranteed seasons reach their end, not as a rookie like most fans fantasize about. If Anderson's still producing, fine then keep him; if not, then cut him.

I think a the closest UFA comp we'll find for Anderson is Tyrell Williams. 

Both reached free agency at the same age, similar situation/use as the team's deep threat, remarkably similar 3-year yardage/TD production, and it's a very recent deal for comparison. Both were undrafted out of school, had a breakout year 2 with ~1000 yards (he had Rivers; Anderson had McCown and Petty), followed by disappointing dips in years 3-4 (though Williams had different potential due to his size, Anderson is a bit faster, didn't have a probowl QB dropping back 600x, nor Keenan Allen taking a lot of DB attention his way).

Williams got $11MM per last year, so toss in another $1MM (give or take) for inflation, putting him right around $12MM. That's in theory; doesn't mean any team is guaranteed to pay it. 

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21 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Totally agree, but even that is only telling half the story that makes it look like we should expect him to command less. You really have to look at the more recent signings, not deals that are 2-4 years old, with more emphasis on what players got as UFAs not as extensions.

My prediction of a 4 year $48m contract came about from the Tyrell Williams 4 year $44m deal last off-season.

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24 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Totally agree, but even that is only telling half the story that makes it look like we should expect him to command less. You really have to look at the more recent signings, not deals that are 2-4 years old, with more emphasis on what players got as UFAs not as extensions.

2019 UFA WR contracts: Tyrell Williams, Golden Tate, John Brown, Adam Humphries, Jamison Crowder, Cole Beasley

  • Depending on one's POV, you could also include Enunwa since his 2018 season was over and this was accepted because it matched or exceeded the expected highest bid a couple months later.

2018 UFA WR contracts: Jarvis Landry, Allen Robinson, Sammy Watkins, Paul Richardson, Marquise Lee, Michael Crabtree, Danny Amendola

When certain players - particularly those with what's seen as untapped potential - reach free agency, it's quite common to see unexpectedly high bids out of line with their production or just unexpectedly high because people underestimated the amount of inflation. Even more so when there just aren't that many at this position that reach free agency in the first place, and even more so when it's a position (like WR) that usually takes a while for draft picks to ripen into an above-average starter.

Comparing to 2019 he should get around 8-10 a year maybe 11. 

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1 hour ago, JetFreak89 said:


Keenan Allen also ends upon IR every other year.


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2 seasons less than 14 games in a 7 year career yeah terrible 

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22 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I'd be surprised if he's available for $10MM per, but if he is they should pounce on it before he and his agent come to their senses. Total no-brainer at that money.

You sign him to that, but don't let that change any draft plans or player rankings (i.e. don't pass on a great WR prospect in round 1 because now the position's been filled). Ideally a 2020 pick will start hitting his stride right as Anderson's 2 guaranteed seasons reach their end, not as a rookie like most fans fantasize about. If Anderson's still producing, fine then keep him; if not, then cut him.

I think a the closest UFA comp we'll find for Anderson is Tyrell Williams. 

Both reached free agency at the same age, similar situation/use as the team's deep threat, remarkably similar 3-year yardage/TD production, and it's a very recent deal for comparison. Both were undrafted out of school, had a breakout year 2 with ~1000 yards (he had Rivers; Anderson had McCown and Petty), followed by disappointing dips in years 3-4 (though Williams had different potential due to his size, Anderson is a bit faster, didn't have a probowl QB dropping back 600x, nor Keenan Allen taking a lot of DB attention his way).

Williams got $11MM per last year, so toss in another $1MM (give or take) for inflation, putting him right around $12MM. 

Agree completely about the comp to Tyrell Williams.  Also, what might work in our favor, is Williams deal was essentially a one year deal; Raiders can get out of it with no cap hit after this season.  Only guarantees were his $5MM base for this season and $5MM roster bonus.  If we can lock Robby up for $10MM - $1MM a year with first two years guaranteed, which is a better deal than Williams got, I am doing that every time.  We still will need another WR, hopefully in the draft.  If we don't re-sign Robby, all that is left under cotnract is Crowder, Bellamy, Smith, Enunwa and Berrios -- just one healthy proven NFL WR.  Keep Robby, draft a WR, sign a low tier FA.

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

At some point, if we're to have success, a Jets GM will HAVE to draft well.

Past failures do not cause future failures.  Douglas is not Macc.  He may (or may not) suck, but even I'm not bitter and cynical enough to pre-damn as a failure a new GM before he's even made his first draft picks.

I don't.  Even an "average" #1 WR (Picked in Round 1) and #1 O-Lineman (Picked, say, in Round 3) is better than having Adams.

Adams is, IMO, the single most over-valued player we have.  His impact on wins/losses is simply not that great, "all pro" or not.  

Getting Darnold two of the many pieces he needs to thrive would have that impact.  We win on Darnold, not on Adams.  The Rex-Era of "Defense Wins Championships" is long proved dead in NY.

Yup, hasn't hired me as Asst. GM yet either, lol!

Adams has value to me only for what we can get from him for Darnold.  I could care less about having an "all pro (box) safety" whose claim to fame is mostly filling in on pass rush for our horrible D-linemen and Linebackers in Williams "gimmick us some pass rush" scheme.  I mean, lets be real, Adams fame isn't from game-changing INT's and pass coverage, it's all safety blitzes and the occasional forced fumbles because he's effectively a half-ass Edge player and full time run stopper. Look at his numbers vs. an average strong safety, the falloff simply isn't that great and definitely isn't game breaking. 

Same owner so past record of past failure is relevant but I agree not dispositive so we do what we always do: hope and pray while preparing for the worst.

PS: the law of averages is not a real law

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10 minutes ago, New York Mick said:

Comparing to 2019 he should get around 8-10 a year maybe 11. 

I think you're way light thinking he should get 8-10. We could have gotten that as an extension while he was locked in at far less, but not with him earning free agency freedom. 

Williams, with almost identical production, got $11MM as a UFA a year ago. Anderson's not going to take $8-10MM per year from the Jets, and forgo the juicy bidding wars that come with free agency, after another year of cap/contract inflation is tacked onto what Williams got.

Not unless he and his agent both have pudding for brains and each is currently eating out of the other's skull just as the Jets' lowball offer comes through.

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10 minutes ago, Lith said:

Agree completely about the comp to Tyrell Williams.  Also, what might work in our favor, is Williams deal was essentially a one year deal; Raiders can get out of it with no cap hit after this season.  Only guarantees were his $5MM base for this season and $5MM roster bonus.  If we can lock Robby up for $10MM - $1MM a year with first two years guaranteed, which is a better deal than Williams got, I am doing that every time.  We still will need another WR, hopefully in the draft.  If we don't re-sign Robby, all that is left under cotnract is Crowder, Bellamy, Smith, Enunwa and Berrios -- just one healthy proven NFL WR.  Keep Robby, draft a WR, sign a low tier FA.

Yep. I just skimmed it fast and saw the top-line $22MM guaranteed number. Presumably year 2 is guaranteed for injury but not skill. 

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1 minute ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I think you're way light thinking he should get 8-10. We could have gotten that as an extension while he was locked in at far less, but not with him earning free agency freedom. 

Williams, with almost identical production, got $11MM as a UFA a year ago. Anderson's not going to take $8-10MM per year from the Jets, and forgo the juicy bidding wars that come with free agency, after another year of cap/contract inflation is tacked onto what Williams got.

Not unless he and his agent both have pudding for brains and each is currently eating out of the other's skull just as the Jets' lowball offer comes through.

What are you thinking? 12-15?? He can **** off for that much. 

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If you trade Adams for a first, you can let Anderson walk and take a presumably higher upside receiver in round 1- Jeudy, CD etc

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3 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

If you trade Adams for a first, you can let Anderson walk and take a presumably higher upside receiver in round 1- Jeudy, CD etc

You have to think this is a big part of the equation that Douglas is evaluating.  If they don’t trade Adams, they’re taking a tackle with their 1st round pick.  On day 2 they’ll take another OL, probably a cb and either a wr or rb.  But if they trade Adams for, say, a 1st and a 3rd or 4th, they can use this 1st rounder on a very good wr prospect and not worry about paying Anderson big money and making more bonehead mistakes.  Or they could double up on the OL in round 1 and really change the OL right away and still have the ability to get playmakers on day 2, since there will likely be wrs who slip out of the first round.  I would also think they’re in the market for a rb since even if bell stays he’s here only 1 more year and they really need more speed there.

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The biggest argument against not resigning Robbie IMHO is he does seem to carry risk of how he will act off field once he is filthy rich. But that risk is the same at $7m or $12m. It’s really a binary question: can be be trusted as a new millionaire or not? If no, don’t consider at any price. If yes, pay fair market value or lose him. And the market determines FMV, not me or any other fan.

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3 hours ago, Warfish said:

True.

There is also nothing that says it won't happen, although the odds are what they are.

There is also nothing that guarantees Adams plays well in 2020.  Or is healthy.  Or is motivated.

Life is full of risks.  And rewards.

Well, agree to disagree then. 

Did you enjoy being the 31st ranked offense this year while also telling everyone who'd listen how great Darnold and Gase are?

I'd like to be a top 10 offense.  How about you?

Adams has a history.  Nothing about what he's put on film in his entire NFL and college career says he wont play well moving forward.  Hes 120% all day, every game, why would that change now?  Chances are better he continues than two draft picks out perform him. 

But of course none of this is a given, but I'll bet on Adams over the draft picks.  We know what he is vs what we hope someone will be.  I get it, who wouldn't want two really good players over one?  But not only are the picks unknowns, we have no idea if Douglas has a clue when it comes to drafting players.

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16 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Adams has a history.  Nothing about what he's put on film in his entire NFL and college career says he wont play well moving forward.  Hes 120% all day, every game, why would that change now?  Chances are better he continues than two draft picks out perform him. 

But of course none of this is a given, but I'll bet on Adams over the draft picks.  We know what he is vs what we hope someone will be.  I get it, who wouldn't want two really good players over one?  But not only are the picks unknowns, we have no idea if Douglas has a clue when it comes to drafting players.

Don’t see Adams puffing up and turding out after getting paid. I agree both with those who say he was overdrafted/overrated and those that don’t want to trade him. I’m sorry I can’t trust a new GM with more picks from trading proven contributors until I see some evidence of prowess. It is not even about Jets’ history so much as it is a hard job and most first time GMs fail. Add to the fact that Jets traditionally have to bid against themselves to attract talent (merely being high bidder not always enough)—as they had to do this with JD himself so he acutely understands the Jets are not a marquee destination. Don’t trade proven players!

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Well it's pretty simple for me to say if Robbie wants $10 mil a year his days as a Jet are gone.  Vyncent Smith is a good candidate to replace him. If we get the OL straightened out that opens up the TE's to be more involved.  

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