My Analysis of Sam Darnold

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[jetstream23]

I knew the protection was bad, but I didn't know it went from 18th to 31st.  Improving ANY numbers under those circumstances is commendable.  Sam is the one to lead this team.

[Adoni Beast]

Stats don’t tell the whole story. Statistically Sam made marginal improvement. But you see the kinds of throws this kid makes and they’re unreal.

Hopefully in a few years we will be talking about him as one of the best Quarterbacks in the league. He’s that talented. 

[Smashmouth]

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

35 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

 

 

 

[Daddy Wang Doodle]

I think the biggest reason people feel that Darnold regressed or at least flatlined (and I think it's mostly justified) is that there were some games and throws where he just looked completely uninspiring. From making a boneheaded Jameis Winston-like INT to his seemingly utter refusal to take some easy first downs via running, some of the games he played were painful to watch, not because they were atrocious (besides the Pats game obviously), but more so because the simple throws/reads/decisions for whatever reason just eluded him at times. Traits that you simply cannot have if you are considered to be a franchise qb.

[Lizard King]

This will be our equivalent of having the Mets pitching staff the last decade and no support. 

[CanadienJetsFan]

Protection: 31st.

So glad/ relieved  that he and his spleen survived the season.

Now this offseason, go put on about 10 lbs of muscle, work on your deep passes, get rid of them “happy feet” issues and please JD draft a #1 wideout.

See you next year!

[SOJ]

9 minutes ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

Protection: 31st.

So glad/ relieved  that he and his spleen survived the season.

Now this offseason, go put on about 10 lbs of muscle, work on your deep passes, get rid of them “happy feet” issues and please JD draft a #1 wideout.

See you next year!

NO OL 1st, skilled last.   

[bla bla bla]

29 minutes ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

Protection: 31st.

So glad/ relieved  that he and his spleen survived the season.

Now this offseason, go put on about 10 lbs of muscle, work on your deep passes, get rid of them “happy feet” issues and please JD draft a #1 wideout.

See you next year!

Love some CeeDee Lamb

[bla bla bla]

20 minutes ago, SOJ said:

NO OL 1st, skilled last.   

Depends on who is available. If CeeDee Lamb is there vs say the 3rd or 4th LT, I'd probably take the WR

[32EBoozer]

26 minutes ago, SOJ said:

NO OL 1st, skilled last.   

OL 1st; Off. Skilled WR 2nd; OL 3rd; Off. Skilled 3rd; etc. etc. 

[GREENBEAN]

[/url]      

In all seriousness this is one of your best vids yet. Many of the Criticisms of Darnold are valid but it’s nice to see a breakdown in real numbers.

When you look at the realities of this season it would be a legitimate excuse for Sam to have regressed. From the Mono to the Ghosts. But he actually improved in every measurable on your list. It’s kind of incredible.

And to think he’s still younger or as young as some of the QB’s coming out this year. We have our guy imo and if JD gets this kid a stout OL and a number one WR the sky is the limit.

I don’t love Gase but there were a lot of plays and points left on the field. Whether missed passes or botched Kicks etc the truth is that it wasn’t as bad as it felt sometimes.

We are on to something here. And if Gase has the guys he likes, whether ridiculous or not, it just might work out.

Great vid man!


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[Integrity28]

[nico002]

Oh look he improved in every area even though he had the worst protection in the NFL and battled a serious illness.

[The Crusher]

3 minutes ago, nico002 said:

Oh look he improved in every area even though he had the worst protection in the NFL and battled a serious illness.

2nd to last. 

[naturalscience]

4 hours ago, bla bla bla said:

 

 

 

How interesting.  I hadn't checked out his overall stats yet.

This is certainly encouraging. I was in the camp of " he's good, but..." mostly as others have stated he just seemed to completely lose focus. Great throw threading the needle one play, lazy back foot throw the next. Hopefully it's the sort of thing, being such a young guy, he will develop out of. 

He certainly has skills, if he can get more consistent, no reason to think he won't have an excellent career. 

Thanks for posting. 

[docdhc]

Nice analysis. I enjoy your site. 

[bla bla bla]

17 minutes ago, docdhc said:

Nice analysis. I enjoy your site. 

Thanks!

[bla bla bla]

34 minutes ago, naturalscience said:

How interesting.  I hadn't checked out his overall stats yet.

This is certainly encouraging. I was in the camp of " he's good, but..." mostly as others have stated he just seemed to completely lose focus. Great throw threading the needle one play, lazy back foot throw the next. Hopefully it's the sort of thing, being such a young guy, he will develop out of. 

He certainly has skills, if he can get more consistent, no reason to think he won't have an excellent career. 

Thanks for posting. 

I have 100% confidence in Sam, I have 0% confidence in Gase haha

[14 in Green]

33 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

I have 100% confidence in Sam, I have 0% confidence in Gase haha

Two questions

1. You say you have 0% confidence in Gase, yet you just posted a video where you showed Sam improving in different areas despite having such a bad, injury riddled OL. How can you think Gase and his coaching and play calling didn’t play a part (0%) in that improvement? 

2.  Two years after we gave up the 6th pick in the draft, and 3 second rounders to get him, did you think he’d be better then he is now, and would you make that trade again? 

[WyattV18]

43 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

Two questions

1. You say you have 0% confidence in Gase, yet you just posted a video where you showed Sam improving in different areas despite having such a bad, injury riddled OL. How can you think Gase and his coaching and play calling didn’t play a part (0%) in that improvement? 

2.  Two years after we gave up the 6th pick in the draft, and 3 second rounders to get him, did you think he’d be better then he is now, and would you make that trade again? 

1. Daddy helped him improve.

2. Depends on if Mac still took Adams over Watson and Mahomes. ?

[BurnleyJet]

3 minutes ago, WyattV18 said:

1. Daddy helped him improve.

2. Depends on if Mac still took Adams over Watson and Mahomes. ?

Thanks Manish ?

[Lupz27]

5 hours ago, bla bla bla said:

Love some CeeDee Lamb

Would love Antonio Gandy Golden in the 2nd after grabbing a OT in the 1st.

[bla bla bla]

2 hours ago, 14 in Green said:

Two questions

1. You say you have 0% confidence in Gase, yet you just posted a video where you showed Sam improving in different areas despite having such a bad, injury riddled OL. How can you think Gase and his coaching and play calling didn’t play a part (0%) in that improvement? 

2.  Two years after we gave up the 6th pick in the draft, and 3 second rounders to get him, did you think he’d be better then he is now, and would you make that trade again? 

It always seems like that is the excuse but I wonder if it's got something to do with how he practices. 0% is a little tongue and cheek. I'm waiting to pass judgement, I don't think any coach would have had success with the injuries we sustained .

In terms of his progress, yea I thought he'd be better but I think he would have had he not gotten mono. I think that really should be taken into account for his season.

[bla bla bla]

2 hours ago, Lupz27 said:

Would love Antonio Gandy Golden in the 2nd after grabbing a OT in the 1st.

I actually mocked us to him a few months ago at the end of the 1st round with Dallas' 1st (that was assuming mid to late 20s) I think we can get him round 2 though.

[JustInFudge]

Oh, so you're saying he posted a 7-6 record and improved in every measurable category with a less competent offense surrounding him this season and we should be encouraged.  Never heard that take before.

Good vid!  

It really baffles me that there is such a large contingency of Jets fans who think Sam stinks, regressed, DVOA/DYOA blah, worst QB in the league, etc etc etc.   I understand posting video games #'s is all the rave but give me a QB who can lead his team to a winning record when healthy in the face of extreme adversity any day over fancy stats and losses.  I tend to believe the stats will come with a better supporting cast but that's obviously TBD. 

We all want to see improvement from Sam.  He's far from a finished product.  He's got a lot of room for improvement but I find it insane that anyone could look at this season and not think this was a very nice step in the right direction; mono, ghosts and all.

 

 

[The Crusher]

10 hours ago, 14 in Green said:

Two questions

1. You say you have 0% confidence in Gase, yet you just posted a video where you showed Sam improving in different areas despite having such a bad, injury riddled OL. How can you think Gase and his coaching and play calling didn’t play a part (0%) in that improvement? 

2.  Two years after we gave up the 6th pick in the draft, and 3 second rounders to get him, did you think he’d be better then he is now, and would you make that trade again? 

I think he would be better if Macc was fired with Bowles last year  and one of you guys drafted last year for us. I’m not kidding either. 

[Nixhead]

16 hours ago, bla bla bla said:

 

 

 

Do you want to know the most important stat here? Sam is starting to win the close games. If we need a late drive for a field goal he gets it - after not moving the ball most of the day. If its a tight defensive game - Sam doesnt make that Sanchez like turnover that reverses the game momentum. Most of Sams Ints came in a few games. All of this and his stats were better while his protection went from 18th to 31st. Id say Sam is getting the early education and early pounding that will only make him a better QB once he gets a decent O Line.

[thshadow]

A couple of other stat-like things.

The number of terrible games he had in 2018 (say that's when the rating is less than 40) was 3, vs 1 in in 2019.

His median rating in 2018 was 75.8, vs 85.4 in 2019.  The fact that his median was lower than the average in 2018 meant he had a few outlier good games, but the more typical game was worse.  For 2019, when the median is higher than the average, it means there were a few outlier bad games, but the more typical game was better.

What would be concerning, though, if you look at just the numbers (and ignore any external factors like OL), is that while he seems to be getting more consistent - he's settling in around a mid-80's rating.

[CrazyCarl40]

Year 3 is going to go a long way to make or break his career.  If Joe Douglas is worth his salt, then the line will be improved. His weapons were already better this year than last. So now it’s up to him to take a big leap forward. But he has to contend with a bad offensive coach and coordinator in name only. Hopefully he can overcome bad coaching and stake a claim as an above average QB and maybe even top ten. 

[y2k8]

1 minute ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

Year 3 is going to go a long way to make or break his career.  If Joe Douglas is worth his salt, then the line will be improved. His weapons were already better this year than last. So now it’s up to him to take a big leap forward. But he has to contend with a bad offensive coach and coordinator in name only. Hopefully he can overcome bad coaching and stake a claim as an above average QB and maybe even top ten. 

Totally agree it's make or break if Sam is going to be a "great" quarterback in this league.   

Sam could very well plod through 4 seasons improving marginally and still have an Eli manning type career - better than a game manager but never elite.

And if that means the Jets win 2 Super Bowls, I'll sign up for that right now. 

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, Nixhead said:

Do you want to know the most important stat here? Sam is starting to win the close games. If we need a late drive for a field goal he gets it - after not moving the ball most of the day. If its a tight defensive game - Sam doesnt make that Sanchez like turnover that reverses the game momentum. Most of Sams Ints came in a few games. All of this and his stats were better while his protection went from 18th to 31st. Id say Sam is getting the early education and early pounding that will only make him a better QB once he gets a decent O Line.

This.  100%.  Overcoming adversity this young and in your 2nd year posting a +.500 record despite the offense deficiencies is encouraging.  The best part about the great 2nd half that Sam had was exactly what you just pointed out.  Every time we needed a late 4th quarter score to either put the game away or put the game to a TD instead of a FG or 8 points instead of 7, etc.  He delivered.  That's clutch.  I like clutch but apparently JN doesnt like clutch.  They rather focus on that one throw he missed in the 3rd quarter and his dvoaya/dovayera

 

[JetsMetsRangers]

33 minutes ago, JiF said:

This.  100%.  Overcoming adversity this young and in your 2nd year posting a +.500 record despite the offense deficiencies is encouraging.  The best part about the great 2nd half that Sam had was exactly what you just pointed out.  Every time we needed a late 4th quarter score to either put the game away or put the game to a TD instead of a FG or 8 points instead of 7, etc.  He delivered.  That's clutch.  I like clutch but apparently JN doesnt like clutch.  They rather focus on that one throw he missed in the 3rd quarter and his dvoaya/dovayera

 

And all with learning a new offense, have to get rid of the guy!.....lol!

[y2k8]

45 minutes ago, JiF said:

This.  100%.  Overcoming adversity this young and in your 2nd year posting a +.500 record despite the offense deficiencies is encouraging.  The best part about the great 2nd half that Sam had was exactly what you just pointed out.  Every time we needed a late 4th quarter score to either put the game away or put the game to a TD instead of a FG or 8 points instead of 7, etc.  He delivered.  That's clutch.  I like clutch but apparently JN doesnt like clutch.  They rather focus on that one throw he missed in the 3rd quarter and his dvoaya/dovayera

 

This is a good point. With the exception of the Pats game which was just a complete disaster, Sam on the season was great on the first drive and/or first quarter of vast majority of games, was ineffective in the middle of the game and strong again in the 4th quarter (in the wins and some of the losses).

To me, his middle game dip in performance is due to Gase being slow to adjust play calling. I don't have much faith in Gase changing his ways (he is in love with his game plans), but hopefully Sam with another year in the offense and in his third season, will be able to course correct Gase's stubbornness on the field.