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Tua announcement (How it affects the draft)

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8 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

Is Jalen Hurts, after this seasons results, a top 10 QB?

Not even close. Probably third or fourth round.

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9 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

Is Jalen Hurts, after this seasons results, a top 10 QB?

I don't think so.  He will be intriguing for some team that wants a poor man's Lamar Jackson, but I think he'll be more like Dwayne Haskins.

Probably goes in Round 2, similar to Geno Smith.

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1 hour ago, Paradis said:

Does this mean I'm "right" @Gibby?  You had intimated something to that effect

About him coming out of school. You are. 

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1 hour ago, Rhg1084 said:

Will Miami take him?

Will the Pats trade up for him?

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1 minute ago, Gibby said:

About him coming out of school. You are. 

the point was - neither of us are right or wrong. It's tough to be wrong when only one scenario played out... but obviously people in Tua's camp agreed with me that he stands to gain little by returning. 

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I suspect both Tua and Herbert are on the board at 11 

Jordan Love could go before Tua 

both have been overrated by CFB fans all year 

***

 

BLUE CHIPS (long gone by 11) 

QB Joe Burrow, LSU

ER Chase Young, Ohio State

CB Jeff Okudah, Ohio State 

OL Tristan Wirfs, Iowa 

OL Andrew Thomas, Georgia

 

RED CHIPS 

QB Jordan Love, Utah State 

QB Tua - 'Bama 

OL Jedrick Wills, Alabama (could be higher or lower, depending on workout

WR Jerry Jeudy, Alabama 

WR Henry Ruggs, Alabama 

WR Cee Cee Lamb, Oklahoma 

DL Derrick Brown, Auburn 

ER AJ Epenesa, Iowa  (another hype name - could actually not be a 1st rounder) 

LB/S Isaiah Simmons, Clemson 

***

 

just painting in broad strokes the value feels like WR in this draft - there could be 6 first round WR (Tee Higgins? DaVonta Smith?) 

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12 minutes ago, RobR said:

I think him having eight seconds to throw a pass to the best group of WR's I've ever seen in college might have something to do with it.

i have no doubt his star wars numbers last year were helped out by things like this and talent around him... but he still made NFL throws. Lots of them. I'm not calling him the next big thing, but he's the real deal IMO

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2 minutes ago, bitonti said:

I suspect both Tua and Herbert are on the board at 11 

Jordan Love could go before Tua 

both have been overrated by CFB fans all year 

***

 

BLUE CHIPS (long gone by 11) 

QB Joe Burrow, LSU

ER Chase Young, Ohio State

CB Jeff Okudah, Ohio State 

OL Tristan Wirfs, Iowa 

OL Andrew Thomas, Georgia

 

RED CHIPS 

QB Jordan Love, Utah State 

QB Tua - 'Bama 

OL Jedrick Wills, Alabama (could be higher or lower, depending on workout

WR Jerry Jeudy, Alabama 

WR Henry Ruggs, Alabama 

WR Cee Cee Lamb, Oklahoma 

DL Derrick Brown, Auburn 

ER AJ Epenesa, Iowa  (another hype name - could actually not be a 1st rounder) 

LB/S Isaiah Simmons, Clemson 

***

 

just painting in broad strokes the value feels like WR in this draft - there could be 6 first round WR (Tee Higgins? DaVonta Smith?) 

Jeudy's not a blue chip for you? I've been checked out of CFB all season and I'm trying to get a feel for this draft.

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I dont think this realy helps us. We already have Darnold. I dont want Tua

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58 minutes ago, slats said:

It's a risk if he thinks he'd be a top three pick without the injury. Mayfield signed a $32M deal, Darnold $30M, Rosen, at #10, $17M. That's a lot of guaranteed money he's potentially forfeiting. 

He's probably going to go top 5, maybe even #2 if MIA trades up to lock it down. That's his ceiling this year.... what's the best case scenario if he sticks around and avoids any set backs? He's not going to leap frog Trevor Lawrence while rehabbing... 

I have a hard time seeing any kind of spin on returning unless you believe he's not going top 10... and i think he is, absolutely. 

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5 minutes ago, bitonti said:

I suspect both Tua and Herbert are on the board at 11 

Jordan Love could go before Tua 

both have been overrated by CFB fans all year 

***

 

BLUE CHIPS (long gone by 11) 

QB Joe Burrow, LSU

ER Chase Young, Ohio State

CB Jeff Okudah, Ohio State 

OL Tristan Wirfs, Iowa 

OL Andrew Thomas, Georgia

 

RED CHIPS 

QB Jordan Love, Utah State 

QB Tua - 'Bama 

OL Jedrick Wills, Alabama (could be higher or lower, depending on workout

WR Jerry Jeudy, Alabama 

WR Henry Ruggs, Alabama 

WR Cee Cee Lamb, Oklahoma 

DL Derrick Brown, Auburn 

ER AJ Epenesa, Iowa  (another hype name - could actually not be a 1st rounder) 

LB/S Isaiah Simmons, Clemson 

***

 

just painting in broad strokes the value feels like WR in this draft - there could be 6 first round WR (Tee Higgins? DaVonta Smith?) 

So Higgins isn't even a red chip in your books....? But Ruggs is. 

DeVonta Smith announced he's returning for his senior year. 

 

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They’re going to make a billion Tua-Russell Wilson comps and he’ll be drafted top three. I’d feel safer drafting him than I would Burrow, I think.

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Just hoping the QB hype to be in full affect come draft and some teams trading up to 11 for a 2nd tier Qbs on the rise (Tua, Jordan Love, , Eason)

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Personally, I wouldn’t touch any of these QB’s slated for the 1st round except Burrow.

Hell, I’d rather give someone like Bridgewater or Tannehill $18-20 million a year over hitching my wagon to someone like Tua, Herbert or Love for the next 3+ seasons.

If I was Miami, I’d build up the rest of the team with a plethora of picks this year and do whatever it takes to walk away with Lawrence or Fields in 2021.

Maybe take a shot on a guy like Fromm if he’s still there in the late 2nd/early 3rd, who won’t prevent them from taking a QB next year.

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Tua will be a Miami Dolphin. With 3 number 1 picks this year Miami can afford to take him at 5.  

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1 hour ago, dbatesman said:

Jeudy's not a blue chip for you? I've been checked out of CFB all season and I'm trying to get a feel for this draft.

 

1 hour ago, Paradis said:

So Higgins isn't even a red chip in your books....? But Ruggs is. 

DeVonta Smith announced he's returning for his senior year. 

 

I'll answer both of these at once the value of the WR crop will be depending on their 40 times. If Jeudy can run below 4.4 he won't be on the board at 10 - he will be an amari cooper like top 5 pick. I'm not convinced he's all that fast on track but we shall see

meanwhile Henry Ruggs ran a 4.25 last year at Bama pro day which is super elite speed if he can do it again he might be in play at 11 too 

I'm a stopwatch Hoe... sue me...   :)

none of this is to discuss whether they will be good players or not just what their values are on Day 1 of the NFL draft 

there are probably awesome prospects at WR throughout this draft 

but on surface I don't see a Julio Jones in this crop and that's what a blue chip WR looks like (at least in my book) 

all this is to say Amari Cooper may have been overdrafted top 5 

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1 minute ago, bitonti said:

 

I'll answer both of these at once the value of the WR crop will be depending on their 40 times. If Jeudy can run below 4.3 he won't be on the board at 10 - he will be an amari cooper like top 5 pick. I'm not convinced he's all that fast on track but we shall see

meanwhile Henry Ruggs ran a 4.25 last year at Bama pro day 

I'm a stopwatch Ho but so is everyone else in the league 

none of this is to discuss whether they will be good players or not just what their values are 

on surface I don't see a Julio Jones in this crop and that's what a blue chip WR looks like 

Makes sense—thanks.

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Tua and Hebert will both be there at 11 and the jets will trade down.

Too many really good players at the top to take a risk with tua. 

Also I think he is overrated to some extent.

Miami is not going to take tua over chase young

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4 hours ago, Sarge4Tide said:

Declaring for the draft - likely means 3 QBs will go Top 10 - pushing and Elite OL or WR down to us

let's hope sarge.  You think Tua is going before #11? 

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6 minutes ago, Sarge4Tide said:

Post-Tua Announcement Mock Draft from the Sporting News

 

2020 NFL Mock Draft
1. Cincinnati Bengals (2-14)

Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
Offensive-minded coach Zac Taylor needs a franchise passer with Andy Dalton fading and Ryan Finley not showing much. Burrow has enjoyed a meteoric rise as the runaway Heisman Trophy winner and top QB prospect in the class. At 6-3, 215 pounds, he combines his mental and physical toughness in the pocket with a strong arm and accurate delivery. His leadership skills and athleticism also have flourished in Baton Rouge, with his ridiculous performances in the Alabama game and the CFP semifinal against Oklahoma being big-game gravy. Consider him a better all-around version of Jared Goff.

2. Washington Redskins (3-13)

Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State
Young qualifies as a better prospect than recent Ohio State studs Joey and Nick Bosa. With defensive-minded Ron Rivera hired as head coach, assuming the Redskins don’t get a can’t-refuse offer to trade back, they should jump at the chance to get this cornerstone talent for the team's defensive rebuild. Young (6-5, 265 pounds) is a game-changing disruptor who had 16.5 sacks in only 12 games as a junior. He is the clear pick for a team that doesn't need a QB.

3. Detroit Lions (3-12-1)

Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State
The Lions must go for a top defensive prospect who fills a big need early, and cornerback is among the priorities for Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn. Darius Slay is 29 and can still be very impactful, but he needs help on the outside. Okudah, an elite ball hawk at 6-1, 200 pounds, has the build to handle receivers of all sizes. He is fluid and quick enough with great recovery skills in coverage to develop into a shutdown type, with his strengths showing up in press man.

4. New York Giants (4-12)

A.J. Epenesa, EDGE, Iowa
The Giants will miss out on the pass-rushing services of Young for general manager Dave Gettleman, but they can recover well here with another top-flight Big Ten prospect. Epenesa (6-6, 280 pounds) is a powerful, explosive, big-bodied player. He can push blockers out of the way to get to the quarterback and also stands up strong against the run. He confirmed his top-10 status with 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble against USC in the Holiday Bowl.


5. Miami Dolphins (5-11)

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
Now that we know Tagovailoa (6-1, 218 pounds) should make a full recovery from his scary hip injury, he has to be the pick for the Dolphins. Miami can keep Ryan Fitzpatrick to serve as the bridge QB should Tagovailoa need extra time to get to full strength. When healthy, Tagovailoa is an accurate, mobile, deep-ball throwing QB with the upside of Russell Wilson, only throwing with his left arm.

6. Los Angeles Chargers (5-11)

Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
Herbert has ideal size (6-6, 237 pounds) for a team that needs to look to its QB future beyond Philip Rivers. Herbert comes with a few durability concerns, and while he is efficient and mentally tough overall, there are times when he can go into a slump with his decision-making, forcing throws out of overconfidence. With good NFL coaching, however, he can live up to being a prototypical superstar. Anthony Lynn would have a strong influence on Herbert, and his recent burst of athleticism would be a welcome asset in LA.

7. Carolina Panthers (5-11)

Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
The Panthers were terrible against the run in 2019, and as they rebuild their defense without Rivera, they could use an elite run-stuffer with some excellent inside pass-rush juice. Brown would do nicely. At 6-5, 318 pounds, he is a quick disruptor who makes a lot of plays in the backfield. Quarterback also will be considered heavily with this pick should Herbert remain available.

8. Arizona Cardinals (5-10-1)

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama
Giving Kyler Murray a true all-around go-to guy would allow Christian Kirk to be more dangerous as a complementary playmaker. Jeudy fits the profile as a No. 1 receiver; he is a classic intermediate-to-deep field-stretcher and smooth drive-finisher in the red zone at 6-1, 198 pounds.


9. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10)

Isaiah Simmons, OLB, Clemson
The Jaguars had some of the worst linebacker play in the NFL in 2019. Simmons seems to be all over the field at all times for Clemson with great speed and range at 6-4, 230 pounds, and he also can get to the quarterback. He has 97 tackles, 6 sacks, 14.5 tackles for loss and 3 interceptions in 14 games this season.

10. Cleveland Browns (6-10)

Austin Jackson, OT, USC
The Browns have an amazing set of skill players around Baker Mayfield, but their pass protection was the reason they were slow to find their explosiveness early in 2019. Jackson (6-6, 310 pounds) has entered the first-round fray as an athletic beast garnering more attention with his Trojans tape, assuming he enters the draft as expected.

11. New York Jets (7-9)

Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia
The Jets might consider a wide receiver, but they also could use a rock for their offensive line in front of Sam Darnold. Thomas matches great size (6-5, 320 pounds) with good hands and footwork. Coach Adam Gase also will love what Thomas can do to open holes for the running game.

Jesus.  Austin Jackson before Thomas, Wirfs and Wills?  I just don't see it.  And I like Thomas. 

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When you look at at the 2018 draft, quarterbacks like Mayfield (in 2018), Darnold, Allen and obviously Lamar Jackson won their teams games.

Look at the Jets' roster-it is downright terrible.  The Jets won 7 games and are only drafting 11th.   They are not drafting higher because of Sam Darnold basically.  A decent QB will win you games.  if Darnold did not get mono the Jets were possibly sniffing the playoffs.   Possibly.

So I think any QB with the potential to be a decent NFL QB better than the guys like Trevor Siemian otherwise floating around will get drafted high.  That will push other players down to the Jets.  This makes sense, because the QB is the most important position on the field.  

Josh Allen may have had a not great playoff game, but he did help get the Bills to the playoffs, a place the Jets have not been in 10 years.  

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I always find it funny that no matter where we pick, people get upset that the best players may be "out of reach" and be gone by the time we pick. 

We could pick 3rd, 11th, or 22nd, and the prevailing thought pre draft is "dammit why did we win stupid games, the players we need are going to be gone" 

Then... 

The same people after the season happens, the script flips to "dammit why didnt we pick him, he was sitting right there" 

I think more often than not, we get burnt on people we passed on. Not people taken before us. Only way to be great, is to simply pick the correct player no matter what position you pick. Instead of 382 DTs in the first round. 

 

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1 hour ago, Sarge4Tide said:

Post-Tua Announcement Mock Draft from the Sporting News

 

2020 NFL Mock Draft
1. Cincinnati Bengals (2-14)

Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
Offensive-minded coach Zac Taylor needs a franchise passer with Andy Dalton fading and Ryan Finley not showing much. Burrow has enjoyed a meteoric rise as the runaway Heisman Trophy winner and top QB prospect in the class. At 6-3, 215 pounds, he combines his mental and physical toughness in the pocket with a strong arm and accurate delivery. His leadership skills and athleticism also have flourished in Baton Rouge, with his ridiculous performances in the Alabama game and the CFP semifinal against Oklahoma being big-game gravy. Consider him a better all-around version of Jared Goff.

2. Washington Redskins (3-13)

Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State
Young qualifies as a better prospect than recent Ohio State studs Joey and Nick Bosa. With defensive-minded Ron Rivera hired as head coach, assuming the Redskins don’t get a can’t-refuse offer to trade back, they should jump at the chance to get this cornerstone talent for the team's defensive rebuild. Young (6-5, 265 pounds) is a game-changing disruptor who had 16.5 sacks in only 12 games as a junior. He is the clear pick for a team that doesn't need a QB.

3. Detroit Lions (3-12-1)

Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State
The Lions must go for a top defensive prospect who fills a big need early, and cornerback is among the priorities for Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn. Darius Slay is 29 and can still be very impactful, but he needs help on the outside. Okudah, an elite ball hawk at 6-1, 200 pounds, has the build to handle receivers of all sizes. He is fluid and quick enough with great recovery skills in coverage to develop into a shutdown type, with his strengths showing up in press man.

4. New York Giants (4-12)

A.J. Epenesa, EDGE, Iowa
The Giants will miss out on the pass-rushing services of Young for general manager Dave Gettleman, but they can recover well here with another top-flight Big Ten prospect. Epenesa (6-6, 280 pounds) is a powerful, explosive, big-bodied player. He can push blockers out of the way to get to the quarterback and also stands up strong against the run. He confirmed his top-10 status with 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble against USC in the Holiday Bowl.


5. Miami Dolphins (5-11)

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
Now that we know Tagovailoa (6-1, 218 pounds) should make a full recovery from his scary hip injury, he has to be the pick for the Dolphins. Miami can keep Ryan Fitzpatrick to serve as the bridge QB should Tagovailoa need extra time to get to full strength. When healthy, Tagovailoa is an accurate, mobile, deep-ball throwing QB with the upside of Russell Wilson, only throwing with his left arm.

6. Los Angeles Chargers (5-11)

Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
Herbert has ideal size (6-6, 237 pounds) for a team that needs to look to its QB future beyond Philip Rivers. Herbert comes with a few durability concerns, and while he is efficient and mentally tough overall, there are times when he can go into a slump with his decision-making, forcing throws out of overconfidence. With good NFL coaching, however, he can live up to being a prototypical superstar. Anthony Lynn would have a strong influence on Herbert, and his recent burst of athleticism would be a welcome asset in LA.

7. Carolina Panthers (5-11)

Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
The Panthers were terrible against the run in 2019, and as they rebuild their defense without Rivera, they could use an elite run-stuffer with some excellent inside pass-rush juice. Brown would do nicely. At 6-5, 318 pounds, he is a quick disruptor who makes a lot of plays in the backfield. Quarterback also will be considered heavily with this pick should Herbert remain available.

8. Arizona Cardinals (5-10-1)

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama
Giving Kyler Murray a true all-around go-to guy would allow Christian Kirk to be more dangerous as a complementary playmaker. Jeudy fits the profile as a No. 1 receiver; he is a classic intermediate-to-deep field-stretcher and smooth drive-finisher in the red zone at 6-1, 198 pounds.


9. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10)

Isaiah Simmons, OLB, Clemson
The Jaguars had some of the worst linebacker play in the NFL in 2019. Simmons seems to be all over the field at all times for Clemson with great speed and range at 6-4, 230 pounds, and he also can get to the quarterback. He has 97 tackles, 6 sacks, 14.5 tackles for loss and 3 interceptions in 14 games this season.

10. Cleveland Browns (6-10)

Austin Jackson, OT, USC
The Browns have an amazing set of skill players around Baker Mayfield, but their pass protection was the reason they were slow to find their explosiveness early in 2019. Jackson (6-6, 310 pounds) has entered the first-round fray as an athletic beast garnering more attention with his Trojans tape, assuming he enters the draft as expected.

11. New York Jets (7-9)

Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia
The Jets might consider a wide receiver, but they also could use a rock for their offensive line in front of Sam Darnold. Thomas matches great size (6-5, 320 pounds) with good hands and footwork. Coach Adam Gase also will love what Thomas can do to open holes for the running game.

Three QBs and Epenesa going in the Top 10 would be a wet dream for the Jets!  Having a chance to choose between OTs Andrew Thomas, Tristan Wirfs and WR CeeDee Lamb......whoa nelly!  Sign me up.  In fact, I'd be trying to trade back a spot or two.

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How about some speculation on the teams that either NEED or may WANT a QB....

Cincinnati, Miami, Chargers, possibly New England might all be in the NEED category.

Lions, Bucs, Panthers, Broncos.....even Steelers........That could be the WANT category.  They're not pressing the panic button yet but Stafford has been hurt and is getting older, Jameis Winston's future isn't a lock in Tampa, Cam Newton could be gone in Carolina and I don't think Kyle Allen is the longterm answer, how confident are the Broncos in Lock?....Big Ben coming back?  Is Mason Rudolph or Duck Hodges the answer?

As always, some teams have blatant need while others are on borrowed time.

If Tua or Herbert slip to #11 I wouldn't be surprised if the phone starts ringing from other teams looking to move up.  Remember, the Texans and Chiefs were good teams that jumped up to get Watson and Mahomes, putting those guys instantly in good situations.  Tua under Bruce Arians on the Bucs with Mike Evans, Godwin, etc......that's pretty tasty if you're a Tampa fan.

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Good for us. The more QBs available, the more QBs taken before we pick, the more good OL and WR available when we pick. 

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Imo both Herbert and Tua could be there at 11.

I really think both are very overrated as top 10 picks when you look at the other talent available.

Of course QBs are always over valued and I'd be happy if they both go top 10.

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7 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Imo both Herbert and Tua could be there at all.

I really think both are very overrated as top 10 picks when you look at the other talent available.

Of course QBs are always over valued and I'd be happy if they both go top 10.

Would you rather have Tua, Herbert, or Josh Allen (Bills)? Because I think that’s the kind of calculation teams make when it comes to these QBs. 

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37 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Three QBs and Epenesa going in the Top 10 would be a wet dream for the Jets!  Having a chance to choose between OTs Andrew Thomas, Tristan Wirfs and WR CeeDee Lamb......whoa nelly!  Sign me up.  In fact, I'd be trying to trade back a spot or two.

Why you pensa?

 

 

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2 hours ago, Sarge4Tide said:

Post-Tua Announcement Mock Draft from the Sporting News

8.Arizona Cardinals (5-10-1)

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama
Giving Kyler Murray a true all-around go-to guy would allow Christian Kirk to be more dangerous as a complementary playmaker. Jeudy fits the profile as a No. 1 receiver; he is a classic intermediate-to-deep field-stretcher and smooth drive-finisher in the red zone at 6-1, 198 pounds.

 

I'm already super annoyed that everyone with a keyboard and the internet thinks ARZ is taking a WR. 

I would never say never, but that's so clearly not the problem with the Cardinals... AND they just doubled down on WRs last year.

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6 hours ago, JiF said:

Whoever takes him, will be very sorry.

I could see him sinking like a rock, going late first round.

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5 hours ago, T0mShane said:

They’re going to make a billion Tua-Russell Wilson comps and he’ll be drafted top three. I’d feel safer drafting him than I would Burrow, I think.

Can't agree here

Burrow is a true franchise calibre prospect imo.

Tua is an oft injured guy and like some other Bama players his profile was raised by beating up on the weak.  I don;t see him anywhere near as elusive as Wilson

In any case it is good for us if he goes high.

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18 hours ago, slats said:

It's a risk if he thinks he'd be a top three pick without the injury. Mayfield signed a $32M deal, Darnold $30M, Rosen, at #10, $17M. That's a lot of guaranteed money he's potentially forfeiting. 

It’s a risk either way.  Bird in the hand vs two in the Bush.
 

17 million is nothing to sneeze at.  If he’s healthy in 4 yrs and playing well, the difference in initial salary is more than offset by another year in the NFL at over 30 mill per.  

If he goes back to Bama and is reinsured or his play suffers due to residual injury, he is in a much worse place financially.

If I’m Tua I’d be coming out.  He’s shown enough at the college level.

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