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2020 Draft General Plan - The Warfish Way (as of 1/6/20)


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1 minute ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

Also just to note, Jets don't have to pay Adams now. That would be stupid. He has 2 years left when you include the 5th year option.

And this is exactly why there's at least a remote chance Adams will hold out this year.  He's only due to make $3M next season.

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43 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Warfish I love ya but you don't trade Adams for a center and you don't draft the 2 LSU WRs right after you trade Adams Mr LSU 

Adams is the culture he wins games. 

Wirfs should be gone. I'm not convinced Wills is a LT, value at 11, or fit for Gase zone scheme. 

And by the way if they sign Scherff (who has chronic shoulder injuries) they likely lose the 3rd round comp in 2021 for losing Robby. 

 

I simply do not agree re: Adams or his value to this franchise's future.

But respecting that view, the plan is easily modified to suit, you just get less tools to fill our many gaping holes at vital spots.

Quote

 

Round #1 - #11 Tristan Wirfs (OT) or Jedrick Wills (OT).  

Round #2 - Justin Jefferson (WR), LSU.

Round #3 - Calvin Throckmorton (OG), Oregon.  

Round #3 - Michael Pittman Jr., (WR), LSU.  6'5", good hands, big bully of a WR and run blocker.  Little weak on separation, but helps establish what I want in my offense, big strong tough bullies who will block.  Worth a chance here.

Round #4 - Lamar Jackson, (CB), Nebraska.  6'3", 215.  

Round #5 - Best O-Line (Center if possible).

Round #6 - Levonta Taylor (CB), FSU, 5'10", 190.

 

Still does most of what I want to see done. 

Harrison starts at Center unless he can improved via FA.  

P.S. Love you too Bit. 

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

First and most vital presumption: 

Jamal Adams is traded for a #1 pick in 2020.  For purposes of this, I will accept a #4 as the second pick we get, and yes, I know many here will be made at that theoretical compensation.

Again, for purposes of projection, I'm going ultra-conservative, and say the #1 pick is #20 overall (Jacksonville), a team projected in some mocks to go Safety in Round 1 this year.  Higher picks could be possible.

Current Jets O-line players Beachum (OT), Harrison (C/OG) and Shell (OT/OG) and Edoga (OL) are retained, for depth if nothing else.. 

L. Bell is retained at #1 RB (because he's not going to get us enough to be worth trading).

-------------------------

Round #1 - #11 Overall - With Thomas projected off the Board, the pick here is Tristan Wirfs (OT) or Jedrick Wills (OT).  The O-Line Rebuild begins.

Round #1 (For Adams) - #20 Overall - I would (perhaps riskily) skip WR and get the best Center in the Draft, Tyler Biadasz (C)

Round #2 - Justin Jefferson (WR), LSU.  6'3", 192.  Potential legit #1 WR, great route runner, good body control, uses his size well to make contested catches.

Round #3 - Calvin Throckmorton (OG), Oregon.  

Round #3 - Michael Pittman Jr., (WR), LSU.  6'5", good hands, big bully of a WR and run blocker.  Little weak on separation, but helps establish what I want in my offense, big strong tough bullies who will block.  Worth a chance here.

Round #4 - Curtis Weaver, (DE/OLB), Boise State.  An Edge prospect.  Worth the risk at this spot.

Round #4 (for Adams) - Lamar Jackson, (CB), Nebraska.  6'3", 215.  

Round #5 - Hamsah Nasirildeen (S), FSU.  6'4", 215.

Round #6 - Levonta Taylor (CB), FSU, 5'10", 190.

Round #7 - Pick Um'.  RB.  OG.  OT.  EDGE.  BAP with max upside and bully toughness is fine here.  Sorry, my bad, this was traded away.

---------------------------

The players above are placeholders.  Most should be available at or around those spots, as of today, but a ton will change between today and draft day.  The basic plan, however, should remain.

A dedicated focus on rebuilding the O-line.  We get top-end prospects at Center and Tackle in the 1st, with a likely very solid Guard in the 3rd.  Leaves only two spots to be filled by existing linemen or FA's (preferably existing if possible, Harrison?  Beachum?  Shell? Edoga?)

The WR unit, currently made up of Crowder in the slot and D. Thomas at #3 at best, gets a material infusion of young talent.  We take a shot at a #1 with Jefferson, and get a bully who can block and fight for the ball on short routes in coverage with Pittman.  Focus on solid route running and winning contested catches.

The Defense waits a while, and we do not get a true elite EDGE, sadly we cannot solve every problem in one offseason draft.  

But we do address the glaring need in the DBackfield at Cornerback with two upside prospects who could materially help solve this problem, and we provide a new prospect at Safety to handle the Adams position with Maye.  We lose something there vs. the run (hopefully to be handled by our returned LB'ers and an improved QW), but should gain in pass coverage an INT's.  

This general plan (and again, the specific players can and likely will change by draft day!) leaves us still amongst the worst in the NFL at pass rush Edge, and we take a hit at Safety but gain at CB and pass coverage.  Our O-line is rebuilt and our WR corp. infused with talent to pair with Crowder/Thomas/Herndon/Griffin/Enunwa-if-back.

Edge becomes our top FA need (along with more OL!), and if not addressed, the #1 need going into 2021 without question.

Sam gets the help he desperately needs with a young O-line and WR corp.  RB also has to wait till 2021 for the future, but should be patch-able via FA.

Draft plan leans hard on offense (makes up for the past 16 years), and expects ALOT out of D-Co Williams again in 2020 with a healthy LB corp. and the loss of Adams.

Some FA's to target:

Brandon Schrerff (28 years old), OG, Redskins

Justin Simmons, (26), S, Broncos.

 

Did anyone actually read this novel?

Get me some cliff notes so I can vehemently disagree with all of it! 

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10 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Nick Mangold was a once in a generation center prospect (and he went like 27th) 

it's not clear there's a 1st round center in this draft but if there is it's the kid out of Oklahoma...  Creed Humphrey not the kid from Wisconsin.

Keep in mind Gase doesn't really care about line as much as this board or Joe Douglas. he's going to ask for a WR, given the choice.  

Biadasz feels more like Day 2 - 2nd-3rd round depending on workouts 

 

I think you are totally wrong on two counts.  #1 Gase does not value WRs.  He dumped landry and thought Devante parker was a jag in miami.

Also to your previous post Jamal Adams does not win games.  In two full years here there might be one game you could point to and say he made the difference.

Offense wins games and pass rush wins games and if you have to totally comprise the defense by rushing a safety all the time you are at a disadvantage.

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3 minutes ago, JiF said:

Overall, I like the approach.  Hard to knock it when you cant see who you're passing on.  If for example, we passed on Tee Higgins for a C with the pick we got for Jamal Adams, I'd break faces.

Far too early to try and map out not only the Jets but every other team's needs and wants as well.

To stress, this is a general plan of attack, a way of expressing my view on how to improve the team.  As I said, the players names may (and likely wil) change in many places between now and Draft Day, and some flips could occur (a WR here instead of a CB, a OL here instead of a WR, etc.)

But generally speaking, even the `no-trade-of-Adams plan above would IMO be a great way of improving this team in the most vital areas.....other than Edge, which simply has to wait to 2021 or look to FA in 2020.

Lots of time between now and the decision day.  I am sure we'll have plenty more mocks as FA's get signed, folks leave, etc.

This is my vision, today.

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2 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I can't wait until we draft Wirfs or WIlls so we can read the next day about how much we would be able to trade them for.

Yawn.   We wouldn't be looking to trade Deshaun Watson or Pat Mahomes if they were the pick at 6.  Those 2 are facing off in the playoffs this week while our BEST season with Jamal has been 7-9.

People need to stop being so sensitive about the Adams trade talk.  It's getting embarrassing.  

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2 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I can't wait until we draft Wirfs or WIlls so we can read the next day about how much we would be able to trade them for.

QB,OT, Weapons Wr, pass rusher CB are all premiere positions, ILB, DT, Safety all non premium.

The day the jets get a true pass rushing olb All World jamal will be just another safety and one that is a liability in coverage at that.

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3 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

QB,OT, Weapons Wr, pass rusher CB are all premiere positions, ILB, DT, Safety all non premium.

The day the jets get a true pass rushing olb All World jamal will be just another safety and one that is a liability in coverage at that.

Jets fans:  "We have to build around Sam!  Devote all resources to the offense this offseason!"

Also Jets fans, when it is suggested to trade Jamal in order to improve the offense:  "F**K YOU WE CAN'T WIN WITHOUT JAMAL"

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1 hour ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I like this mock. I wouldn't trade Adams but if I did I would be very happy if the first two rounds played out like that.

I go back and forth but if it was up to me right now I wouldn't trade Adams.

If they do and the 1st two rounds ended up like that I would be thrilled!

Good job @Warfish!

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25 minutes ago, Warfish said:

As a side note, I find it exceptionally interesting that the Adams situation is a perfect example of the Endowment Effect (for info on this see here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endowment_effect).

Put simply, there is no chance anyone on this site would hypothetically trade to acquire Adams (if he were on another team) today and send our 2020 #1 and #3 or similar to get him.  

Yet when offered the same in reverse, that very same player is SO valued that we wouldn't trade him away for that very same #1 and #3 or similar.

This kind of "overvaluation of what you already have" is quite common, but it's so clearly in effect here, it's a brilliant example of behavioral psychology in action.

even beyond this, there are many who simply aren't willing to take the risk of picking a dud in the 1st round with the main compensation from an adams trade.  the 'one bird in the hand' theory.  terrified of looking stupid.  watching adams be great on the cowboys while the guy the jets took sucks.  

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1 minute ago, Augustiniak said:

even beyond this, there are many who simply aren't willing to take the risk of picking a dud in the 1st round with the main compensation from an adams trade.  the 'one bird in the hand' theory.  terrified of looking stupid.  watching adams be great on the cowboys while the guy the jets took sucks.  

My retort to that:  It's easily possible that we keep Adams AND fail to draft a good player in the 1st round.

But since Macc is gone, we have no choice but to trust the new guy to do what's right for the franchise.  

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1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

My retort to that:  It's easily possible that we keep Adams AND fail to draft a good player in the 1st round.

But since Macc is gone, we have no choice but to trust the new guy to do what's right for the franchise.  

the jets can always screw up a draft pick, we all know this.  but i think the main fear in trading adams is that the jets gm won't get a good offensive player so that at least if adams is good somewhere else, we can all think the deal was good for us.

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37 minutes ago, Maxman said:

I go back and forth but if it was up to me right now I wouldn't trade Adams.

If they do and the 1st two rounds ended up like that I would be thrilled!

Good job @Warfish!

Kind of where my heads at. On one hand its hard to argue the Jets are not a better team without the best player at his position in the league. On the other hand if you can turn a safety into to two real good value picks on players who start day one.... It’s hard to find the downside. My concern is trading a know commodity for an unknown.

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46 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

People need to stop being so sensitive about the Adams trade talk.  It's getting embarrassing.  

If you asked these people to guess at the numbers Adams put up year after year, you’d think it’d be 120 tackles, 6 picks, 5+ sacks. Jamal stans have become a cult wherein they have to deny every bit of objective evidence in order to proclaim his greatness.

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2 hours ago, Warfish said:

First and most vital presumption: 

Jamal Adams is traded for a #1 pick in 2020.  For purposes of this, I will accept a #4 as the second pick we get, and yes, I know many here will be made at that theoretical compensation.

Again, for purposes of projection, I'm going ultra-conservative, and say the #1 pick is #20 overall (Jacksonville), a team projected in some mocks to go Safety in Round 1 this year.  Higher picks could be possible.

Current Jets O-line players Beachum (OT), Harrison (C/OG) and Shell (OT/OG) and Edoga (OL) are retained, for depth if nothing else.. 

L. Bell is retained at #1 RB (because he's not going to get us enough to be worth trading).

-------------------------

Round #1 - #11 Overall - With Thomas projected off the Board, the pick here is Tristan Wirfs (OT) or Jedrick Wills (OT).  The O-Line Rebuild begins.

Round #1 (For Adams) - #20 Overall - I would (perhaps riskily) skip WR and get the best Center in the Draft, Tyler Biadasz (C)

Round #2 - Justin Jefferson (WR), LSU.  6'3", 192.  Potential legit #1 WR, great route runner, good body control, uses his size well to make contested catches.

Round #3 - Calvin Throckmorton (OG), Oregon.  

Round #3 - Michael Pittman Jr., (WR), LSU.  6'5", good hands, big bully of a WR and run blocker.  Little weak on separation, but helps establish what I want in my offense, big strong tough bullies who will block.  Worth a chance here.

Round #4 - Curtis Weaver, (DE/OLB), Boise State.  An Edge prospect.  Worth the risk at this spot.

Round #4 (for Adams) - Lamar Jackson, (CB), Nebraska.  6'3", 215.  

Round #5 - Hamsah Nasirildeen (S), FSU.  6'4", 215.

Round #6 - Levonta Taylor (CB), FSU, 5'10", 190.

Round #7 - Pick Um'.  RB.  OG.  OT.  EDGE.  BAP with max upside and bully toughness is fine here.  Sorry, my bad, this was traded away.

---------------------------

The players above are placeholders.  Most should be available at or around those spots, as of today, but a ton will change between today and draft day.  The basic plan, however, should remain.

A dedicated focus on rebuilding the O-line.  We get top-end prospects at Center and Tackle in the 1st, with a likely very solid Guard in the 3rd.  Leaves only two spots to be filled by existing linemen or FA's (preferably existing if possible, Harrison?  Beachum?  Shell? Edoga?)

The WR unit, currently made up of Crowder in the slot and D. Thomas at #3 at best, gets a material infusion of young talent.  We take a shot at a #1 with Jefferson, and get a bully who can block and fight for the ball on short routes in coverage with Pittman.  Focus on solid route running and winning contested catches.

The Defense waits a while, and we do not get a true elite EDGE, sadly we cannot solve every problem in one offseason draft.  

But we do address the glaring need in the DBackfield at Cornerback with two upside prospects who could materially help solve this problem, and we provide a new prospect at Safety to handle the Adams position with Maye.  We lose something there vs. the run (hopefully to be handled by our returned LB'ers and an improved QW), but should gain in pass coverage an INT's.  

This general plan (and again, the specific players can and likely will change by draft day!) leaves us still amongst the worst in the NFL at pass rush Edge, and we take a hit at Safety but gain at CB and pass coverage.  Our O-line is rebuilt and our WR corp. infused with talent to pair with Crowder/Thomas/Herndon/Griffin/Enunwa-if-back.

Edge becomes our top FA need (along with more OL!), and if not addressed, the #1 need going into 2021 without question.

Sam gets the help he desperately needs with a young O-line and WR corp.  RB also has to wait till 2021 for the future, but should be patch-able via FA.

Draft plan leans hard on offense (makes up for the past 16 years), and expects ALOT out of D-Co Williams again in 2020 with a healthy LB corp. and the loss of Adams.

Some FA's to target:

Brandon Schrerff (28 years old), OG, Redskins

Justin Simmons, (26), S, Broncos.

 

You're hired!

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48 minutes ago, Warfish said:

As a side note, I find it exceptionally interesting that the Adams situation is a perfect example of the Endowment Effect (for info on this see here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endowment_effect).

Put simply, there is no chance anyone on this site would hypothetically trade to acquire Adams (if he were on another team) today and send our 2020 #1 and #3 or similar to get him.  

Yet when offered the same in reverse, that very same player is SO valued that we wouldn't trade him away for that very same #1 and #3 or similar.

This kind of "overvaluation of what you already have" is quite common, but it's so clearly in effect here, it's a brilliant example of behavioral psychology in action.

"The endowment effect has been observed using different good in a wide range of different populations, including children, great apes, and new world monkeys."

 

 

Accurate. 

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1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

I think you are totally wrong on two counts.  #1 Gase does not value WRs.  He dumped landry and thought Devante parker was a jag in miami.

Also to your previous post Jamal Adams does not win games.  In two full years here there might be one game you could point to and say he made the difference.

Offense wins games and pass rush wins games and if you have to totally comprise the defense by rushing a safety all the time you are at a disadvantage.

DeVante Parker has been a jag. A malingering, cowardly jag. Dont let a couple of decent games fool you. 

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10 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

Love the effort here, but mocks, without knowing the outcome of Free Agency, are an inherent waste of time.

I did try and say that in the OP and subsequently, that this is a guide of intentions, and that the names and order of selections might change.

End of the day, I want from this draft three new starting O-linemen, 2 new WR's including a #1 WR and a possession guy, and 2 new CB's out of our seven picks.

The order that they get this in, I can be flexible.

Replace one of these for a edge, fine.

Replace a CB for a RB late maybe.  Fine.

 

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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And this is exactly why there's at least a remote chance Adams will hold out this year.  He's only due to make $3M next season.

Hopefully his pal Le'Veon lets him know how things work out when you sit a full season in your prime and then try to comeback and command a big payday playing a non-premium position like S, RB, OG, etc.

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30 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

If you asked these people to guess at the numbers Adams put up year after year, you’d think it’d be 120 tackles, 6 picks, 5+ sacks. Jamal stans have become a cult wherein they have to deny every bit of objective evidence in order to proclaim his greatness.

What if I agree that he's great and interpret all the numbers as he has a fairly significant impact on wins, and yet conclude that I have no ******* clue what the Jets are supposed to do with the guy?

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2 hours ago, Warfish said:

Round #1 (For Adams) - #20 Overall - I would (perhaps riskily) skip WR and get the best Center in the Draft, Tyler Biadasz (C)

No. Just no. 

Did you watch this dude play in their Bowl game? He was steaming garbage in the biggest game of his career. He had more botched snaps in that game alone, than Harrison has had his entire time playing the position. 

He is roughly considered a top 25-32 prospect, so due to positional needs per team, he should be there for us in the 2nd round. Even if he isnt Creed Humphrey is basically a 1b compared to Biadasz and the value would be there in the 2nd for him. 

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3 minutes ago, bitonti said:

yes and they'd be worse without him 

The dude is an All Pro and was the key to several of the few wins this team has had.  Without him the Jets are the Lions or the Redskins.

Jamal Adams scored more TDs than many players on our offense.  He had more sacks than many Edge rushers in the NFL.  People get stuck on this, "He's a Safety" thing.  Look at what he DOES...not the POSITION he plays.

I wouldn't trade him unless the competition was substantial.  1st, 2nd and a 2nd in 2021....something like that.

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