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jetstream23

Is the NFL really a "passing league"? Let's take a look at the teams in the playoffs...

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Source: https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/_/view/team/season/2019/seasontype/2  ESPN Stats and Info. 2019 Regular Season

 

The Top 5 Passing and Rushing Teams in the NFL in 2019.  Playoff teams in green.  Non-playoff teams in red.  In fact, not only did the green teams make the playoffs but they include the #1 seeds from each conference and two teams that won on the road last week.  Not in the Rushing Top 5, but with a great rushing attack, the Minnesota Vikings who also won on the road last week.  Dalvin Cook, 94 yards, 2 TDs.

The #1 Ravens employ the most lethal RPO attack with Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram.

The #1 SF 49ers?  What if I told you they employ the league's highest paid Fullback?

#GroundAndPound

 

As we say around here.....discuss!

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10 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Next year we can do this again and say it is a special teams league.

You have to be able to pass and run and play some defense.

There is no magic formula.

Have good players on both sides of the ball, decent coaching, a good QB and no glaring weakness.

So you're saying have a great defense, great QB, great rushing game, great passing game and you'll be successful?  You should tell Joe Douglas and Adam Gase about this secret. :P

I think the above is telling you that teams who have rushed the ball well, controlled the clock, and scored points on the ground have been more successful than teams that air it out, even airing it out with pretty good QBs like Matt Ryan or Dak Prescott, Jared Goff.  I don't know if I could definitively say that Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garropolo and Ryan Tannehill are better than those three guys...but they're in the playoffs and the first 3 mentioned are not.

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36 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

So you're saying have a great defense, great QB, great rushing game, great passing game and you'll be successful?  You should tell Joe Douglas and Adam Gase about this secret. :P

I think the above is telling you that teams who have rushed the ball well, controlled the clock, and scored points on the ground have been more successful than teams that air it out, even airing it out with pretty good QBs like Matt Ryan or Dak Prescott, Jared Goff.  I don't know if I could definitively say that Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garropolo and Ryan Tannehill are better than those three guys...but they're in the playoffs and the first 3 mentioned are not.

No.  I am saying you need to be really good at one aspect.  Then be decent at the others and have no big weakness. 

Are any of the teams left awful awful passing teams?

To have a shot at the playoffs every year you need a really really good QB.

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It’s still a quarterback league. One of the top-4 in the league (Wilson, Mahomes, Rodgers or Jackson) will be hoisting the trophy. 

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2 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

No.  I am saying you need to be really good at one aspect.  Then be decent at the others and have no big weakness. 

Are any of the teams left awful awful passing teams?

To have a shot at the playoffs every year you need a really really good QB.

Understood, but are Cousins, Garropolo and Tannehill really good?  Are they really, really good?

Brees is out.  Matt Ryan never made it.  Matthew Stafford was 4th in the league in QBR and 6th in Rating.  Dak Prescott, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Derek Carr were all Top 10 in QBR.

I'm not saying all this to be argumentative.  No doubt you need a good QB to go deep in the playoffs.....but the more data I look at, the more it tells me that you ain't going anywhere if you can't run the ball.  Heck, even Mark Sanchez got dragged to AFC title games on the back of rushing attacks.

My simple thesis, and it's becoming a belief quite frankly is that this whole notion of the NFL turning into a flag football league where only passing matters is utter and complete hogwash.  Trust me, I want "chunk plays" like everyone else, I want to light the sky on fire like Bruce Arians says, but rushing the ball well is winning right now.

What is the ONE thing they've always said about Bill Belichick as a coach?  He takes away that one thing you do best! He crippled Peyton Manning by beating down on Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne with physical CBs.  He shut down the Rams intermediate passing game by mixing LBs and stunting Nickel and Dime defenses while suffocating Gurley.  But...he couldn't stop the Titans from what they do best last week.  Derrick Henry and that OLine absolutely abused Bill's #1 NFL defense....and it was f'ing beautiful.

 

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11 minutes ago, Saul Goodman said:

Admit it, this is another Rex fellatio thread 

I thought it was about Cousinslingus!

#YouLikeThat

 

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20 minutes ago, Saul Goodman said:

It’s still a quarterback league. One of the top-4 in the league (Wilson, Mahomes, Rodgers or Jackson) will be hoisting the trophy. 

 

Top 4 according to who?

 

2 of the Top 4 guys in QBR aren't among the NFL's final 8 teams.

40% of the Top 10 never even made the playoffs.

 

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Magic with stats does not tell the full story since the top 4 rushing teams have better QB's than the top 4 passing teams and it's not close...

None of the top 4 passing teams (that did not make the playoffs) had a top 5 defense, hmm

Now, the Top 5 total offenses were all in the playoffs with a combination of rushing and passing (one not better than the other)

Winston and Goff traded yards for interceptions (no playoffs for those top passers)

The Top 5 defenses also made the playoffs (3 playoff teams had a top 5 offense and defense) - balanced offense with minimal turnovers and good defense = playoffs, wow

Cherry picking stats like that moron Gettleman does NOT prove cause and effect, for example; we know Ice Cream sales increase with Drownings (not because one causes the other) more probably because it's Summer and it's hot outside so more people are in the water and also more people enjoy frosty goodness to cool down  

Exception might be Dallas where Dak had a great year and one of the best RB's in the league was underutilized by a bad (now fired) coaching staff - circus was in town so not a good example for the case study..

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2 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

So you're saying have a great defense, great QB, great rushing game, great passing game and you'll be successful?  You should tell Joe Douglas and Adam Gase about this secret. :P

I think the above is telling you that teams who have rushed the ball well, controlled the clock, and scored points on the ground have been more successful than teams that air it out, even airing it out with pretty good QBs like Matt Ryan or Dak Prescott, Jared Goff.  I don't know if I could definitively say that Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garropolo and Ryan Tannehill are better than those three guys...but they're in the playoffs and the first 3 mentioned are not.

Gase believes the world is flat.  Can't tell him anything.  

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2 hours ago, Ohio State NY Jets fan said:

Cherry picking stats like that moron Gettleman does NOT prove cause and effect, for example; we know Ice Cream sales increase with Drownings (not because one causes the other) more probably because it's Summer and it's hot outside so more people are in the water and also more people enjoy frosty goodness to cool down  

 

Yep.  That's correlation, not causation.  In the same vein, shark attacks are also highly correlated with ice cream sales.  

Another fun one:  Did you know that reading ability is highly correlated with shoe size?

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There has to be some balance to a team. A great passing team that doesn't play defense won't win much. Having said that... Anyone who doesn't see the rules favoring the passing game (making it much easier to move the ball and score) isn't paying attention. A team like the Ravens has a QB who is a threat to pass and run and uses both to set both up. So while they have big rushing numbers it's very much in part because LJ adds a lot of yards that they might not get if teams aren't defending for the pass when he takes off and runs. Yes, I know they run a lot of designed runs for LJ, but even on those teams have to be worried about him simply rolling out to pass.

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6 hours ago, Fantasy Island said:

Gase believes the world is flat.  Can't tell him anything.  

5B7F72F9-03CB-46AC-9E10-AB76CFC74423.jpeg.cb0ddc3743cf7445d7e70c03e6270100.jpeg

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7 hours ago, Ohio State NY Jets fan said:

Magic with stats does not tell the full story since the top 4 rushing teams have better QB's than the top 4 passing teams and it's not close...

Cherry picking stats like that moron Gettleman does NOT prove cause and effect, for example; we know Ice Cream sales increase with Drownings (not because one causes the other) more probably because it's Summer and it's hot outside so more people are in the water and also more people enjoy frosty goodness to cool down  

 

If you torture statistics enough, they are capable of telling you anything.

That’s why I believe experience and instinct remain critical for GMs. Someone has to determine what data points are relevant more than others and to assess which are indicative of trends ahead of opposing teams. 

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4/4 top passing teams in playoffs by dvoa

2/4 top rushing teams 

Yards per game is a deficient stat for many reasons 

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You need a lot of things to go right!

you can’t have a QB with Mono

you can’t have 19 guys on IR

you can’t have a sieve oline

you need some luck in this league

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13 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

876268671_ScreenShot2020-01-10at9_41_32PM.png.1fe0246d4c4352d7b54dea5e1e221d62.png

Source: https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/_/view/team/season/2019/seasontype/2  ESPN Stats and Info. 2019 Regular Season

 

The Top 5 Passing and Rushing Teams in the NFL in 2019.  Playoff teams in green.  Non-playoff teams in red.  In fact, not only did the green teams make the playoffs but they include the #1 seeds from each conference and two teams that won on the road last week.  Not in the Rushing Top 5, but with a great rushing attack, the Minnesota Vikings who also won on the road last week.  Dalvin Cook, 94 yards, 2 TDs.

The #1 Ravens employ the most lethal RPO attack with Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram.

The #1 SF 49ers?  What if I told you they employ the league's highest paid Fullback?

#GroundAndPound

 

As we say around here.....discuss!

I agree with @Beerfish This is explainable. 

1. The Bucs have a QB that threw for 5,100 yards and 33 TD's. Winston also threw 30 INT's including 6 pick 6's. No other QB in NFL history has thrown 30 TD's and 30 INT's in the same season, and 6 pick 6's in 1 season is also an NFL record. This is why they didnt make the playoffs. 

2. The Cowboys are a perfect example of what it is to have a talented team and a mediocre coach. The Cowboys shared the same division with the Redskins which is arguably the worst team in the league, an injury prone Eagles team and a Giants team that just benched Manning and is currently rebuilding...and the Cowboys STILL couldnt make the playoffs. I have never seen a team that was 6th in scoring offense and 11th in defense in points allowed and didnt make the playoffs. The only way that those stats work is if the coach mismanages the team. It shows that when you win you're blowing out your opponent, yet when you lose you're losing by less than 1 score. The Cowboys is a SB contender in terms of talent, the best thing to happen to that team was iring their coach. 

3. The Falcons never have a reliable defense. They give up a ton of yards and they also gave up 25ppg, which ranks them 23rd in the league. The Falcons offense was also hot and cold. They can either put up 30+ points on you or completely no-show and put up 10 points. 

4. This one is the easiest. The Rams play in the toughest division in football. They play in a division where two teams made the playoffs (49ers, Seahawks), the 49er's is a SB favorite and Russell Wilson would have probably been the MVP of the league if not for how freaking insane Lamar Jackson was this year. Also, Todd Gurley is clearly not the same player anymore after his injury. He didn't even post one 100-yard game this year. The two games that basically kept them out of the playoffs was losing to the Bucs and the Steelers. Their other 5 loses were against division rivals and a talented Cowboys team. 

And speaking of the Cowboys, given that they're the only team to be in the top 5 of both list, yet be the team that didnt make the playoffs, shows that there's much more going on than just wants happening on those lists. Statistically, the Cowboys are the best offense in the league. Match that with their defensive ranking, they should be the clear favorite to win it all...yet they didnt even make the playoffs. 

 

When I see this list, I see the difference between the good coaches and the not so good coaches. 

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6 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yep.  That's correlation, not causation.  In the same vein, shark attacks are also highly correlated with ice cream sales.  

Another fun one:  Did you know that reading ability is highly correlated with shoe size?

Good one; a 12 year old will have a larger shoe size and increased reading ability compared to a 7 year old - bigger shoes too, amirite LOL 

also will be needing a phone and ear pods etc...  soon to be teenager provides all new correlations :)

 

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9 hours ago, johnnysd said:

It's an incredibly deceptive stat. Good teams get leads, good teams run the ball when they have leads.  It makes them look like they are better at running the ball when in fact they are running to protect leads (with the exception of Baltimore. Flip side bad teams get behind and completely abandon the run and then they compile passing yards. Truly good teams are balanced and can run and throw effectively and are rarely tops in either category.

Exactly.  I’d like to see running yards by quarter.  These teams probably passed to get leads and then ran when they had leads.

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10 hours ago, Saul Goodman said:

Admit it, this is another Rex fellatio thread 

Run the option, none of that fancy passin' stuff. Let us know how that works when the defense can pack 8-9 guys hard against the LOS. 

Also Jamies Winston threw 30 INTs, so his passing yards were largely negated by being a crappy QB. And since his team was usually behind late in games, Bucs had no choice but to pass late in games to try to get back in the game, thereby inflating his passing yards. Where is that in this analysis? 

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9 hours ago, johnnysd said:

It's an incredibly deceptive stat. Good teams get leads, good teams run the ball when they have leads.  It makes them look like they are better at running the ball when in fact they are running to protect leads (with the exception of Baltimore. Flip side bad teams get behind and completely abandon the run and then they compile passing yards. Truly good teams are balanced and can run and throw effectively and are rarely tops in either category.

Teams that are regularly ahead in many of their games are going to have higher running yards and lower passing yards, especially when they amass wins against crappy teams. Why if I'm ahead am I going to pass the ball when an incompletion stops the clock late in the 4th quarter. 

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It used to be you used the run to set up the pass, now you use the pass to set up the run. You need a passing game (not necessarily a top 5) to the opposing defensive safeties back to open up the run. Without a good QB and passing, they just put 8 or 9 in the box and you have nothing.

You need passing when you are behind and need to score quickly. You need running when you are in the lead to hold on and to rest your defense. You need to make 3-1 and 3-2 - if you don't have passing game, they can stuff your box. You want to protect your QB, so, if you can't run, the defense can just pin back their ears and kill your QB.

Smash mouth football can tire and intimidate a defense, but you cannot be single dimensional. You need balance.

The other problem is that when a team is always loosing, they are throwing a lot to catch up; when they are winning they are running a lot - so better teams pad stats on run, while weaker teams pad stats with passing.

And, of course, there is defense. The playoff teams tend to be good at defending the pass as well. If you are winning a lot, teams will pass against you to catch up while if you are loosing a lot of blow out games, teams will run against you.

So, if you are one dimensional, you are likely going to be stopped; if you win big a lot, you will pad your offense with running and if you loose big a lot, you will pad your offense with passing.

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11 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

876268671_ScreenShot2020-01-10at9_41_32PM.png.1fe0246d4c4352d7b54dea5e1e221d62.png

Source: https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/_/view/team/season/2019/seasontype/2  ESPN Stats and Info. 2019 Regular Season

 

The Top 5 Passing and Rushing Teams in the NFL in 2019.  Playoff teams in green.  Non-playoff teams in red.  In fact, not only did the green teams make the playoffs but they include the #1 seeds from each conference and two teams that won on the road last week.  Not in the Rushing Top 5, but with a great rushing attack, the Minnesota Vikings who also won on the road last week.  Dalvin Cook, 94 yards, 2 TDs.

The #1 Ravens employ the most lethal RPO attack with Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram.

The #1 SF 49ers?  What if I told you they employ the league's highest paid Fullback?

#GroundAndPound

 

As we say around here.....discuss!

I don't know where all of these yahoos on this site came to the conclusion that the league was no longer a rushing league? I never believed it. Ground and pound will ALWAYS be a viable way to win SB's. I guess for most it just doesn't seem as dynamic as they would like to see, but I think that's BS as well. Will they really be b*tching about the product when the Jets win the SB?

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41 minutes ago, NYJ1 said:

I don't know where all of these yahoos on this site came to the conclusion that the league was no longer a rushing league? I never believed it. Ground and pound will ALWAYS be a viable way to win SB's. I guess for most it just doesn't seem as dynamic as they would like to see, but I think that's BS as well. Will they really be b*tching about the product when the Jets win the SB?

 

Just because its a viable strategy doesn't make it the best strategy.  Far from it.  You need a lot more to go right if you're a run-first team.  You need to be able to get a lead and have a defense that's good enough to protect it. 

A run-first team that doesn't also have at least an above average passing attack will always stumble, because there's always a playoff D out there that can shut down the run.  

The poster child for a recent run-first team that won a title was the Seahawks with Beast Mode.  Sure, Marshawn and the run game was essential.  But so was having a top 5/top 10 QB in Russell Wilson.  You can win a championship without an elite rushing attack.  But its nearly impossible to win a title without an elite passing attack.  

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12 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

876268671_ScreenShot2020-01-10at9_41_32PM.png.1fe0246d4c4352d7b54dea5e1e221d62.png

Source: https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/_/view/team/season/2019/seasontype/2  ESPN Stats and Info. 2019 Regular Season

 

The Top 5 Passing and Rushing Teams in the NFL in 2019.  Playoff teams in green.  Non-playoff teams in red.  In fact, not only did the green teams make the playoffs but they include the #1 seeds from each conference and two teams that won on the road last week.  Not in the Rushing Top 5, but with a great rushing attack, the Minnesota Vikings who also won on the road last week.  Dalvin Cook, 94 yards, 2 TDs.

The #1 Ravens employ the most lethal RPO attack with Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram.

The #1 SF 49ers?  What if I told you they employ the league's highest paid Fullback?

#GroundAndPound

 

As we say around here.....discuss!

Kansas City can matriculate the ball down the field with the best of them.  

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1 minute ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Kansas City can matriculate the ball down the field with the best of them.  

giphy-17.gif.fef4b6ffa7717bdbfd5d7ba3d782dc34.gif

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12 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

876268671_ScreenShot2020-01-10at9_41_32PM.png.1fe0246d4c4352d7b54dea5e1e221d62.png

Source: https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/_/view/team/season/2019/seasontype/2  ESPN Stats and Info. 2019 Regular Season

 

The Top 5 Passing and Rushing Teams in the NFL in 2019.  Playoff teams in green.  Non-playoff teams in red.  In fact, not only did the green teams make the playoffs but they include the #1 seeds from each conference and two teams that won on the road last week.  Not in the Rushing Top 5, but with a great rushing attack, the Minnesota Vikings who also won on the road last week.  Dalvin Cook, 94 yards, 2 TDs.

The #1 Ravens employ the most lethal RPO attack with Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram.

The #1 SF 49ers?  What if I told you they employ the league's highest paid Fullback?

#GroundAndPound

 

As we say around here.....discuss!

well, i'm all for ground and pound.  i'm sure why the method has gotten such a bad name.  it may imply that the ground and pound teams can't pass but that's not true.  and all teams use the run to set up the pass or vice versa.  the true thing is all of the playoff teams can pass and run.  and that's the key.  it's whatever works to move the chains and any team that becomes one dimensional is at a decided disadvantage.  oh i'm sure people will talk about the greatest show on turf or even the patsies with moss but the fact is those teams used short passes the same way run teams do.  a short pass is sometimes no more than a long handoff.  another point is a good run game will help a qb.  wilson may be the exception in the list but even he will use his legs to get first downs.

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Just now, rangerous said:

well, i'm all for ground and pound.  i'm sure why the method has gotten such a bad name.  it may imply that the ground and pound teams can't pass but that's not true.  

As long as you CAN pass it works fine.  It's especially important for cold-weather teams to have a good run-blocking line.  You don't need a "special" RB but you need 1-2 nice pulling Linemen.  

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25 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

As long as you CAN pass it works fine.  It's especially important for cold-weather teams to have a good run-blocking line.  You don't need a "special" RB but you need 1-2 nice pulling Linemen.  

no argument from me.  teams can't afford to be one dimensional.  i remember that rex game a couple of seasons ago when he decided to run the ball about 50 times.  it worked up to a point, like when the opponent took the lead late in the game.  then the jets tried to make a few passes (geno at qb) and they failed.

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4 minutes ago, rangerous said:

no argument from me.  teams can't afford to be one dimensional.  i remember that rex game a couple of seasons ago when he decided to run the ball about 50 times.  it worked up to a point, like when the opponent took the lead late in the game.  then the jets tried to make a few passes (geno at qb) and they failed.

Yep.  The Jets have basically been playing "Hide the QB" since Testaverde in '98.  

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13 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Just because its a viable strategy doesn't make it the best strategy.  Far from it.  You need a lot more to go right if you're a run-first team.  You need to be able to get a lead and have a defense that's good enough to protect it. 

A run-first team that doesn't also have at least an above average passing attack will always stumble, because there's always a playoff D out there that can shut down the run.  

The poster child for a recent run-first team that won a title was the Seahawks with Beast Mode.  Sure, Marshawn and the run game was essential.  But so was having a top 5/top 10 QB in Russell Wilson.  You can win a championship without an elite rushing attack.  But its nearly impossible to win a title without an elite passing attack.  

Well, it really depends on the talent you have on your team and if your HC knows how to bring that out. Rex Ryan KNEW that the ground and pound was the only viable strategy the Jets could partake in to win football games in 2009 and 2010. He was absolutely correct about that. It's the same thing that John Harbaugh created this season.

It's equally nonsense to say you need a lot more to go right of you're a run first team. A dominant OL, running game, and a good defense can set the time in any game and control the tempo from start to finish.

Shutting down the run after all the strategy is gone is a war of wills. That's EXACTLY what you got in MANY playoff games the Jets were involved in 2009 and 2010. Particularly, the Bengals, Chargers, and the patsy game from 2011. ALL of those defenses stacked the box in an effort to shut down Thomas Jones, Ladainian Tomlinson, and Shonn Greene. Yet NONE of them could.

What you're saying is guff. The Jets had Mark Sanchez. He's one of the worst QB's I've ever seen and yet even he was able to execute play action and roll outs because the defense had absolutely sold out to stop the run and still couldn't. All the Jets offense had to do in those games was to snap the ball and TAKE the 3 to 5 yards a clip.

Not to mention, more often than not, a ball control, run first offense is the most common offense you'll find. Peyton Manning played for the Colts, a finesse type team that wasn't particularly strong at the LOS. While Manning could be the best ever QB to play the game, he won only one SB. That's because the Colts were very one dimensional.

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