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2 hours ago, The Crusher said:

Moderator Note: This is a thread for all of us to watch these games together and talk about the games. I’m going to ask once that everyone please refrain from trolling the Jets in this thread. Everybody hears enough of that sh*t in the rest of the threads on this board  Don’t do it here!  If you are unable to control yourself I’m offering a FREE 3-7 day vacation from the board. You don’t have to thank me, I love each and everyone of you so consider  it a gift. 

It’s painfully obvious the  Jets are not playing today and all of us  agree we would like to see that change. Enjoy the day. 

REMINDER in case anyone missed it. 


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55 minutes ago, CTM said:

Yeah don't do that. I stopped gambling entirely because I didn't stick to my system* when on a losing streak and/or drinking. (particularly for televised games). I had a pretty healthy win percentage for the games I intended to bet during the week but last minute bets particularly Sunday night games were pretty brutal as I'd look to double winnings or chase losses betting on "gut" feelings like a dumbass. Also was betting intragame for whatever game was watching on TV and having poor results. 

I made some money overall but the analysis stuff started to feel like work and the games it spit out weren't often on TV. The gut feeling bets were more fun but my WP was below 50%. Still nothing like watching a game with a bunch of money on it.

* I used to convert DVOA to expected points and look for weak lines. Also loved betting on reverse line movement and often times found both systemsunearth the same games and those are the games I would load up on.

I would love to hear more about your strategies.  You should do a podcast for JN.

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Just now, Sarge4Tide said:

I'm not a KC fan but I would guess they still feel pretty confident / optimistic down by 14.  If it gets to -21, they might start to panic. Early but this is a big drive for the Chiefs D

Yep.  I was just hoping we'd get the best out of Andy Reid today.  So far not so good.  

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1 minute ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I would love to hear more about your strategies.  You should do a podcast for JN.

The bulk of people who bet on pro sports are acting emotionally, or a confirmation bias. There are a few sharps who are breaking down data, but they are few. And in theory they can get an advantage because bookies set point spreads hoping to get said emotional bettors to wager equal money on each side of a proposition, not necessarily that one team is 3 points better than the other. My one bookie client knew almost nothing about sports spare hoping to not have to figure out how to lay off an imbalance of wagers. 

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