The Truth About Sam Darnold

[Jetmech]

It's a shame the season ended after mono and MNF.  Would have been nice to see him take the team on a little run, maybe go like 6-2 over the last half of the season or something encouraging like that. 

 

Lol. I’m a Sam fan. Just expressing what I read and hear from the talking heads. The hype isn’t the same. He needs to prove himself, that’s all.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[RutgersJetFan]

2 hours ago, SAR I said:

Rolex looks good in green.

SAR I

Alpinist will get you by just fine 

[jetstream23]

Anyone ?

[SAR I]

1 hour ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Alpinist will get you by just fine 

I've got 5 Seiko's, I'm (mostly) an SKX man.  Modded one, in fact.  But those are beaters.  Don't even mention Grand Seiko.

SAR I

[Warfish]

4 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

As Parcells, one of our favorite quotes has famously said, you are what your records says you are.  

I agree.

Our record says we are the 32nd ranked offense in the NFL, led by the 27th rated QB in the NFL, and the 2nd worst team in the AFC East.

6-2?  Great, a sign of something.  What?  We'll find out in 2020, when we will have another record that is what we are, as Parcells says.

[sourceworx]

[RutgersJetFan]

1 hour ago, SAR I said:

I've got 5 Seiko's, I'm (mostly) an SKX man.  Modded one, in fact.  But those are beaters.  Don't even mention Grand Seiko.

SAR I

You a Panerai fan at all? 

[Jet Nut]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

I agree.

Our record says we are the 32nd ranked offense in the NFL, led by the 27th rated QB in the NFL, and the 2nd worst team in the AFC East.

6-2?  Great, a sign of something.  What?  We'll find out in 2020, when we will have another record that is what we are, as Parcells says.

Don't confuse stats with records. There are a lot of reasons the offense was ranked where it was, part of it is spelled Fales the other part is spelt mono yet another is spelt talent.  

And as Parcells also was fond of saying, every year is a new year, you start over again.

But its also a long held belief that you go out and try and win every game you can because you need to learn how to win and there is no downside to wins. 

[Jet Nut]

45 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

You a Panerai fan at all? 

Love them.  

Got one years ago, had an inside hook to Tourneau 

[Losmeister]

the truth about sam is that he was a bottom 5 QB for 2 years.....    tbc

 

 

[jetstream23]

1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

Don't confuse stats with records.

That's a very good point.  Didn't the Jets have the 10th ranked Defense in the NFL (16th in scoring D, 7th in yardage D, 5th in Yards Per Play given up)?  And, they had zero cornerbacks, a decent but overachieving set of defensive linemen, were eventually starting 3rd string inside linebackers and have no true Edge rusher (apologies to Jordan Jenkins).  How does that group rank 10th in the NFL?  Oh...we have Jamal Adams but everyone here says he's just a dancer and not a difference maker.  So what makes that group rise to Top 10 in the NFL?  And don't just tell me it's Gregg Williams who is good, but has been a journeyman D Coordinator his whole career.

The Jets were 7-9 this year but I'd argue the Jets were more like a 2-14 Offense and an 11-5 Defense.

(I'm agreeing with you by the way.  Stats don't always translate to records.)

[RutgersJetFan]

1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

Love them.  

Got one years ago, had an inside hook to Tourneau 

Very distinct style. I’m a huge fan. You’re a lucky man.

[SAR I]

3 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said:

You a Panerai fan at all? 

No, I like the styling but just too big for my wrist. 

SAR I

[Jet Nut]

8 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

That's a very good point.  Didn't the Jets have the 10th ranked Defense in the NFL (16th in scoring D, 7th in yardage D, 5th in Yards Per Play given up)?  And, they had zero cornerbacks, a decent but overachieving set of defensive linemen, were eventually starting 3rd string inside linebackers and have no true Edge rusher (apologies to Jordan Jenkins).  How does that group rank 10th in the NFL?  Oh...we have Jamal Adams but everyone here says he's just a dancer and not a difference maker.  So what makes that group rise to Top 10 in the NFL?  And don't just tell me it's Gregg Williams who is good, but has been a journeyman D Coordinator his whole career.

The Jets were 7-9 this year but I'd argue the Jets were more like a 2-14 Offense and an 11-5 Defense.

(I'm agreeing with you by the way.  Stats don't always translate to records.)

Lets also remember that when he was hired there was talk that the blitz crazy defenses don't work anymore and that his defenses the last few seasons were Gase like the offensive rankings out of Miami.

Stats can be manipulated to prove what you want too often.  As you nicely stated, without a defensive difference maker, wouldn't you be more than a little inclined to give Adams credit for being the driving force of the defense?  The question by more than a few detractors has been that the D would be the same without him.  Except without him it wasn't.  

[Jet Nut]

7 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Very distinct style. I’m a huge fan. You’re a lucky man.

Yeah, had a friend who's father was a manager at Tourneau, had to take advantage of it while the getting was good, lol.

[JustInFudge]

14 hours ago, Warfish said:

Fair enough today.

Let's revisit in August 2020?

So between 8 and 16 wins.  

Because, of course, there is no correlation between QB passing performance and winning games in the modern NFL?

I will admit, the "I don't care what Sam's numbers are" posts reads to me more as "I don't really believe that Sam will put up average to elite NFL QB production numbers, so I just can't hold myself to predicting he will in writing, because I'd hate to be wrong on the internetz".    

If one truly believed he was going to put up a production ~average or better for a 16 game starter, wouldn't you say that? 

Why hesitate or hedge unless you just don't want to be called out for it later if wrong?

Here, let me show you:  I do not believe, today, that Sam Darnold will break 4,000 yards passing.  I do not believe he will have a 2:1 TD:INT ratio.  And I do not believe he will throw for a 65% of higher completion percentage in 2020.  

What are "good numbers" as you see it?  

Sure, lets see what they do this offseason before making predictions.  That said, I would expect to improve in the win column.  The kid was 7-6 as a starter this year on an absolutely terrible Football team, so I'm hard pressed to see the Jets getting worse next season or him regressing.  

I dont have a stat line in mind.  If you think that means I'm scared to be wrong, cool, really dont care. I'm clearly putting my name on Sam, I just dont have some magic line he needs to cross like apparently you do.  If he threw for 4k, 2;1, 25+, 65%+, etc. and the Jets are below .500 vs. a season where he continues to improve statistically but doesnt hit this magic bar you've set, yet the team wins 10+ games, are you upset?  I would take the later.  Hence why I'm not creating some imaginary stupid stat line in Jan. that will definitely measure if he's good or isnt good next season. 

If you look at his year over year growth and project out a full season, he's not very far off of what you dont believe he will do.  That said, him improving to where you want to see him improve to, is highly dependent on the team significantly improving as well.  Under the same circumstances as last year, no, no chance he gets to those numbers.  I dont think many QBs would.  If he gets average to above average OL play vs. a historically bad OL like he had this year, I dont think he'll be far off of what you think he can't do.

 

 

 

[Biggs]

10 hours ago, Warfish said:

I agree.

Our record says we are the 32nd ranked offense in the NFL, led by the 27th rated QB in the NFL, and the 2nd worst team in the AFC East.

6-2?  Great, a sign of something.  What?  We'll find out in 2020, when we will have another record that is what we are, as Parcells says.

I don't care to look but I suspect the numbers may be slightly skewed by the first 4 games when Sam was sick.  It also may be skewed by the fact that the Bills had the 24th ranked O and the 3rd ranked D,  Cleveland was 22nd in both O and D, NE was 15th in O and 1st in D and the Eagles were 14th in O and 10 in D. 

In those games we obviously had a broken O and were completely mismatched.  We played some really crappy Offensive teams this year.  It's not like Buffalo twice, Miami twice, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, NE where top 10 offensive teams.  Dallas may have been the best Offensive team we faced this year and the O had as much to do with that win as the D.  

Our D played well against mostly second tier offensive teams.  The Ravens, who are a good offensive team scored at will on our D.

Our roster was awful.  We played a heavy schedule of bad offensive teams which made our D look better than it is.  With Sam playing well down the stretch we held together and won some games.

Reality is our roster stunk but with Sam we did okay. 

[JustInFudge]

15 hours ago, T0mShane said:

I feel like there’s a really good quarterback inside Sam Darnold, but he has some emotional/maturity issues that he might never overcome to actually be a great quarterback. 

I think this is fair.  And I agree to an extent.  That said, him bouncing back after I thought he was David Carr'd this season to finish as strong as he did, leads me to believe he's a little stronger from that perspective than I thought after the Miami game.  That scene of him not trying for the bad snap in the end zone was scary but then you hear about him approaching Gase about his game plans and then suddenly he started playing better and the team was winning.  That was encouraging from a internal make up perspective.  

15 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Yeah, but I don’t think Darnold was the impetus behind 6-2. I think Gase keeping the team from imploding was the impetus behind 6-2.

Darnold was 7-6 as a starter and Gase literally threw in the towel when he went down.  Give Gase credit for keeping the team from imploding but he imploded without Darnold.  So yeah, I think it definitely was having a healthy Darnold that was the impetus behind 6-2.

[Warfish]

41 minutes ago, Biggs said:

I don't care to look but I suspect the numbers may be slightly skewed by the first 4 games when Sam was sick.

Much to the chagrin of some, those games still count.

41 minutes ago, Biggs said:

 It also may be skewed by the fact that the Bills had the 24th ranked O and the 3rd ranked D,  Cleveland was 22nd in both O and D, NE was 15th in O and 1st in D and the Eagles were 14th in O and 10 in D.

Yes, sometimes we have to play good defenses.  Happens every year.

41 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Our roster was awful.  With Sam playing well down the stretch we held together and won some games.

Reality is our roster stunk but with Sam we did okay. 

No one here thought it stunk on opening day.  It only stunk in retrospect.

But the good news, then, is if GM Douglas improves the roster, we should be a good team then with a QB and Offense performing at least up to the average, right?

[Warfish]

1 hour ago, JiF said:

Sure, lets see what they do this offseason before making predictions.  That said, I would expect to improve in the win column.  The kid was 7-6 as a starter this year on an absolutely terrible Football team, so I'm hard pressed to see the Jets getting worse next season or him regressing.

Fair, and agreed.

Quote

I dont have a stat line in mind.  If you think that means I'm scared to be wrong, cool, really dont care. I'm clearly putting my name on Sam, I just dont have some magic line he needs to cross like apparently you do.

It's not magic.  It's the arithmetic average for QB's who played 16 games in 2019.  

I hope you're not going to tell me that an expectation of absolute middle-of-the-pack mediocrity in the form of the arithmetic average is asking too much from Sam, are you?

Quote

If he threw for 4k, 2;1, 25+, 65%+, etc. and the Jets are below .500 vs. a season where he continues to improve statistically but doesnt hit this magic bar you've set, yet the team wins 10+ games, are you upset?  I would take the later.

The later (wins) are a team statistic.  The former (Sam's production) is a personal statistic.

They are not mutually exclusive nor mutually eliminating.  Sam can play well and the team loses.  Sam can play like sh*t and the Defense can save his ass.

I'd like to see the team win >8 games.

I'd like to see Sam Darnold produce to the average of starting NFL QB's who play 16 games.

Quote

Hence why I'm not creating some imaginary stupid stat line in Jan. that will definitely measure if he's good or isnt good next season. 

Again, lets be clear:  You're calling a desire to see Sam Darnold produce at an absolutely average level for QB's who play 16 games a "imaginary stupid statline".

That is, frankly, a spectacular level of faux faith if you think THAT is some "magic" level near-impossible for Sam to reach or to be judged on reaching.

TLDR:  If you don't think he can be average, you clearly don't have the faith in him you claim.

Quote

I dont think he'll be far off of what you think he can't do.

Again to clarify, I've never said he "can't do it".  This is about expectations, not potential. 

I've said repeatedly and often that Sam Darnold has the potential to produce at a high level.

And I damn well EXPECT him to do so in 2020, his third year as an NFL starter.  If he does not, I will be disappointed in him and the team.  

As you say, if Sam once again produces below average production but we win 10 games.....a la Mark Sanchez, interestingly, yes I will be very happy we won 10 games and hopefully made the postseason.  I will still be disappointed in both Gase and Darnold for being unable to be average.

It's funny how so many of you who supposedly have so much faith in Gase, Darnold or both are utterly unwilling to hold them to account if they cannot even be average.  So much so that MY desire (expectation) that they meet this threshold is seen as being a "hater".  It's amazing stuff tbqh.

[Biggs]

Just now, Warfish said:

Much to the chagrin of some, those games still count.

Yes, sometimes we have to play good defenses.  Happens every year.

No one here thought it stunk on opening day.  It only stunk in retrospect.

But the good news, then, is if GM Douglas improves the roster, we should be a good team then with a QB and Offense performing at least up to the average, right?

No one thought our GM would be fired after the draft.  That might have been a clue about our roster?  What we think at the beginning of the season isn't based on a competitive analysis.  The fact that people think we should pay Robbie Anderson 12 to 15 per shows just how crappy our roster actually is.  

There is no good news or bad news.  The offseason is a competition.  We have lost the offseason competition to our main rivals the Bills and Pats for years now.  Douglas is a complete unknown.  If he turns out to be not just a good GM but substantially better than our main rivals yes we will get better on a comparative, competitive level.  If he improves the roster and the Bills, Dolphins and Pats improve more than we do we will not be substantially better on a competitive level.

Losing Mac was good news.  Douglas will have to prove he has what it takes to build a top tier NFL roster.   Sam lifted his play and the teams play.  He didn't throw in the towel when the wheels were failing off.  Neither did Gase.  We have a pulse.

 

[jetstream23]

 

[Jet Nut]

27 minutes ago, Warfish said:

The later (wins) are a team statistic.  The former (Sam's production) is a personal statistic.

Wins are a team statistic, agreed.

Sams production is a mix of both, no football player hits numbers on his own.  I don't care who you are as a QB, your statistics are influenced by your teammates.  If your OL cant block, you're having a hard time getting the time to complete long passes.  If youre WRs suck youre not completing as many passes and not getting YAC like you get from Hill.  Mahomes WRs had the most separation of any WR group in he NFL, they had almost 4 yards separation.  Add in the tremendous amount of YAC and some of the credit goes to the WR group.  

Don't get me wrong, Mahomes is great but his job was a hell of a lot easier when you think that Watkins is his number 3 WR.

One more thing, 4,000 yards, 65%+ comp rate and a 2:1 TD to INT ratio is average?  16 NFL QBs hit all 3 criteria?  

[JustInFudge]

23 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Fair, and agreed.

It's not magic.  It's the arithmetic average for QB's who played 16 games in 2019.  

I hope you're not going to tell me that an expectation of absolute middle-of-the-pack mediocrity in the form of the arithmetic average is asking too much from Sam, are you?

The later (wins) are a team statistic.  The former (Sam's production) is a personal statistic.

They are not mutually exclusive nor mutually eliminating.  Sam can play well and the team loses.  Sam can play like sh*t and the Defense can save his ass.

I'd like to see the team win >8 games.

I'd like to see Sam Darnold produce to the average of starting NFL QB's who play 16 games.

Again, lets be clear:  You're calling a desire to see Sam Darnold produce at an absolutely average level for QB's who play 16 games a "imaginary stupid statline".

That is, frankly, a spectacular level of faux faith if you think THAT is some "magic" level near-impossible for Sam to reach or to be judged on reaching.

TLDR:  If you don't think he can be average, you clearly don't have the faith in him you claim.

Again to clarify, I've never said he "can't do it".  This is about expectations, not potential. 

I've said repeatedly and often that Sam Darnold has the potential to produce at a high level.

And I damn well EXPECT him to do so in 2020, his third year as an NFL starter.  If he does not, I will be disappointed in him and the team.  

As you say, if Sam once again produces below average production but we win 10 games.....a la Mark Sanchez, interestingly, yes I will be very happy we won 10 games and hopefully made the postseason.  I will still be disappointed in both Gase and Darnold for being unable to be average.

It's funny how so many of you who supposedly have so much faith in Gase, Darnold or both are utterly unwilling to hold them to account if they cannot even be average.  So much so that MY desire (expectation) that they meet this threshold is seen as being a "hater".  It's amazing stuff tbqh.

Do you realize that only 4 QB's in the entire league achieved this bar you've set for Sam next season?  That's not average.  The bar you've set for him is elite; the only QB's to eclipse 4k, 2:1, +25 and +65% are Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson.   So you're not expecting "average QB play", you're expecting an MVP caliber performance.  lmfao

I want Sam Darnold to get better and win more games.  If that's not good enough for you, I dont really give a ****.  

Good talk! 

[JustInFudge]

7 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

One more thing, 4,000 yards, 65%+ comp rate and a 2:1 TD to INT ratio is average?  16 NFL QBs hit those criteria?  

4.  And they're all in the MVP race. 

[Jet Nut]

9 minutes ago, JiF said:

Do you realize that only 4 QB's in the entire league achieved this bar you've set for Sam next season?  That's not average.  The bar you've set for him is elite; the only QB's to eclipse 4k, 2:1, +25 and +65% are Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson.   So you're not expecting "average QB play", you're expecting an MVP caliber performance.  lmfao

I want Sam Darnold to get better and win more games.  If that's not good enough for you, I dont really give a ****.  

Good talk! 

Its actually 3 QBs, Lamar only threw for 3,100 yards.  

I knew hitting all 3 of those numbers wasn't "average"

[slats]

16 hours ago, Warfish said:

Here, let me show you:  I do not believe, today, that Sam Darnold will break 4,000 yards passing.  I do not believe he will have a 2:1 TD:INT ratio.  And I do not believe he will throw for a 65% of higher completion percentage in 2020.  

I'm with @JiF, I want wins, but I'll play: I want/expect Sam Darnold to break the the NY Jets franchise records for yards and TDs in 2020. They improve the OL and weapons, and Sam plays >14 games, I don't see why that can't or won't happen. Like to see him in the neighborhood of 2:1 or 65%, and I see the latter as more likely. Sam's a gunslinger, so I suspect we're gonna see more ints than we'd like for a few years as a result, but I'm okay with that if he's also moving the ball and getting it into the endzone. 

[Warfish]

29 minutes ago, JiF said:

Do you realize that only 4 QB's in the entire league achieved this bar you've set for Sam next season?  That's not average.

  The bar you've set for him is elite; the only QB's to eclipse 4k, 2:1, +25 and +65% are Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson.   So you're not expecting "average QB play", you're expecting an MVP caliber performance.  lmfao

Lets look at the number together, shall we, since math is math and never lies?

The following is the production of all NFL QB's who started either 16 games or 15 games.  Hell, lets expand it even more to all QB's who started 14 games!  

Rk	Player	Tm	Age	Pos	G	GS ▼	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	1D	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD
1	Jared Goff	LAR	25	QB	16	16	9-7-0	394	626	62.9	4638	22	3.5	16	2.6	220	66	7.4	7.0	11.8	289.9	86.5	48.2	22	170	6.90	6.46	3.4	1	2
2	Jameis Winston	TAM	25	QB	16	16	7-9-0	380	626	60.7	5109	33	5.3	30	4.8	243	71	8.2	7.1	13.4	319.3	84.3	57.1	47	282	7.17	6.15	7.0	2	2
3	Tom Brady	NWE	42	QB	16	16	12-4-0	373	613	60.8	4057	24	3.9	8	1.3	193	59	6.6	6.8	10.9	253.6	88.0	52.5	27	185	6.05	6.24	4.2	1	1
4	Carson Wentz	PHI	27	QB	16	16	9-7-0	388	607	63.9	4039	27	4.4	7	1.2	213	53	6.7	7.0	10.4	252.4	93.1	62.9	37	230	5.91	6.26	5.7	2	4
5	Dak Prescott	DAL	26	QB	16	16	8-8-0	388	596	65.1	4902	30	5.0	11	1.8	229	62	8.2	8.4	12.6	306.4	99.7	71.2	23	151	7.68	7.84	3.7
6	Philip Rivers	LAC	38	QB	16	16	5-11-0	390	591	66.0	4615	23	3.9	20	3.4	217	84	7.8	7.1	11.8	288.4	88.5	48.9	34	222	7.03	6.32	5.4	1	2
7	Aaron Rodgers*	GNB	36	QB	16	16	13-3-0	353	569	62.0	4002	26	4.6	4	0.7	189	74	7.0	7.6	11.3	250.1	95.4	53.5	36	284	6.15	6.71	6.0	2	3
8	Kyler Murray	ARI	22	QB	16	16	5-10-1	349	542	64.4	3722	20	3.7	12	2.2	173	88	6.9	6.6	10.7	232.6	87.4	56.0	48	309	5.78	5.55	8.1	1	2
9	Baker Mayfield	CLE	24	QB	16	16	6-10-0	317	534	59.4	3827	22	4.1	21	3.9	179	89	7.2	6.2	12.1	239.2	78.8	49.1	40	285	6.17	5.29	7.0	1	1
10	Russell Wilson*	SEA	31	QB	16	16	11-5-0	341	516	66.1	4110	31	6.0	5	1.0	190	60	8.0	8.7	12.1	256.9	106.3	69.4	48	319	6.72	7.42	8.5	4	5
11	Derek Carr	OAK	28	QB	16	16	7-9-0	361	513	70.4	4054	21	4.1	8	1.6	191	75	7.9	8.0	11.2	253.4	100.8	63.7	29	184	7.14	7.25	5.4	2	3
12	Jimmy Garoppolo	SFO	28	QB	16	16	13-3-0	329	476	69.1	3978	27	5.7	13	2.7	193	75	8.4	8.3	12.1	248.6	102.0	60.2	36	237	7.31	7.22	7.0	4	4
13	Josh Allen	BUF	23	QB	16	16	10-6-0	271	461	58.8	3089	20	4.3	9	2.0	146	53	6.7	6.7	11.4	193.1	85.3	45.8	38	237	5.72	5.71	7.6	4	5
14	Christian McCaffrey*+	CAR	23	RB	16	16		0	2	0.0	0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0	0.0	0.0		0.0	39.6	0.2	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.0
15	Emmanuel Sanders	2TM	32		17	16		1	1	100.0	35	1	100.0	0	0.0	1	35	35.0	55.0	35.0	2.1	158.3	100.0	0	0	35.00	55.00	0.0	0	0
16	Matt Ryan	ATL	34	QB	15	15	7-8-0	408	616	66.2	4466	26	4.2	14	2.3	228	93	7.3	7.1	10.9	297.7	92.1	58.4	48	316	6.25	6.08	7.2	3	2
17	Mitchell Trubisky	CHI	25	QB	15	15	8-7-0	326	516	63.2	3138	17	3.3	10	1.9	156	53	6.1	5.9	9.6	209.2	83.0	40.6	38	234	5.24	5.04	6.9	3	3
18	Deshaun Watson*	HOU	24	QB	15	15	10-5-0	333	495	67.3	3852	26	5.3	12	2.4	191	54	7.8	7.7	11.6	256.8	98.0	69.5	44	257	6.67	6.63	8.2	3	5
19	Jacoby Brissett	IND	27	QB	15	15	7-8-0	272	447	60.9	2942	18	4.0	6	1.3	143	50	6.6	6.8	10.8	196.1	88.0	52.1	27	159	5.87	6.06	5.7	2	2
20	Kirk Cousins	MIN	31	QB	15	15	10-5-0	307	444	69.1	3603	26	5.9	6	1.4	165	66	8.1	8.7	11.7	240.2	107.4	59.8	28	206	7.20	7.73	5.9	1	1
21	Lamar Jackson*+	BAL	22	QB	15	15	13-2-0	265	401	66.1	3127	36	9.0	6	1.5	161	83	7.8	8.9	11.8	208.5	113.3	81.1	23	106	7.13	8.19	5.4	1	2
22	Odell Beckham	CLE	27	WR	16	15		1	2	50.0	20	0	0.0	0	0.0	1	20	10.0	10.0	20.0	1.3	85.4	72.9	0	0	10.00	10.00	0.0
23	DeAndre Hopkins*+	HOU	27	WR	15	15		1	2	50.0	6	1	50.0	1	50.0	1	6	3.0	-9.5	6.0	0.4	56.2	0.0	0	0	3.00	-9.50	0.0
24	John Brown	BUF	29	WR	15	15		1	1	100.0	28	1	100.0	0	0.0	1	28	28.0	48.0	28.0	1.9	158.3	100.0	0	0	28.00	48.00	0.0
25	Stefon Diggs	MIN	26	WR	15	15		0	1	0.0	0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0	0.0	0.0		0.0	39.6	0.1	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.0
26	Patrick Mahomes*	KAN	24	QB	14	14	11-3-0	319	484	65.9	4031	26	5.4	5	1.0	176	83	8.3	8.9	12.6	287.9	105.3	78.0	17	127	7.79	8.38	3.4	1	1

Eliminate the various WR's from the list, and you get 20 starting QB's in 2019 who started 14-16 games.

Take those QB's, plug their statlines into a spreadsheet, and you get an average of:

64.3%, 3,965 Passing Yards, 25 TD's, 11 INT's.  The literal arithmetic average of all QB's who started 14 or more games in 2019.

If you doubt this, feel free to plug it into Excel and do the math yourself.  Be assured, the numbers are accurate.

Let's just be clear, you are rejecting the idea of expecting the literal average production from Sam Darnold. 

Why?  No idea.  Only you know.

I expect him, a supposedly elite prospect with elite potential who was picked #3 overall and costing three high-round picks to get and will be going into his third NFL season........to play to this literal average, at least.

If you don't, and you don't seem to, such is life.  But with that said, it's tought to believe the faux "I believe in Sam" talk if one doesn't even think he can meet the literal average and refuse to hold that average as their expectation for him.

Quote

I want Sam Darnold to get better and win more games.  If that's not good enough for you, I dont really give a ****.  

Good talk! 

No worries. 

It's clear that you utterly reject the idea of an expectation of average from Sam in 2020, and that is your right.  

[JustInFudge]

17 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Its actually 3 QBs, Lamar only threw for 3,100 yards.  

I knew hitting all 3 of those numbers wasn't "average"

Thank you for correcting me.  3 QB's hit the "average" bar and the MVP, did not.

lol

[Warfish]

16 minutes ago, slats said:

I'm with @JiF, I want wins

We all want wins. 

This doesn't require being said, the argument of expectation for Sam's production is not mutually exclusive with wins.  In point of fact, if Sam produces more we almost assuredly will win more.

16 minutes ago, slats said:

.....but I'll play: I want/expect Sam Darnold to break the the NY Jets franchise records for yards and TDs in 2020. They improve the OL and weapons, and Sam plays >14 games, I don't see why that can't or won't happen. Like to see him in the neighborhood of 2:1 or 65%, and I see the latter as more likely. Sam's a gunslinger, so I suspect we're gonna see more ints than we'd like for a few years as a result, but I'm okay with that if he's also moving the ball and getting it into the endzone. 

Brilliant.  That's confidence and expectation in one.  You may be wrong, or I may be wrong, but at least you back what your believe with expectation.

 

[JustInFudge]

4 minutes ago, Warfish said:

64.3%, 3,965 Passing Yards, 25 TD's, 11 INT's.  The literal arithmetic average of all QB's who started 14 or more games in 2019.

 

If Sam played 16 games he would have projected out to 3,800, 23/16 and 62% on the worst offensive unit in the NFL. 

lmfao, I mean wtf are we doing here.

 

[Warfish]

29 minutes ago, JiF said:

If Sam played 16 games he would have projected out to 3,800, 23/16 and 62% on the worst offensive unit in the NFL.

Then saying "I think Sam will meet or exceed the arithmetic average production of 14-16 start QB's in 2020" shouldn't take you twenty posts to say or be that hard, tbqh.

Quote

lmfao, I mean wtf are we doing here.

Setting and discussing expectations is what I'm doing.

What are you doing?

[Jet Nut]

5 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Then saying "I think Sam will meet or exceed the arithmetic average production of 14-16 start QB's in 2020" shouldn't take you twenty posts to say or be that hard, tbqh.

Setting and discussing expectations is what I'm doing.

What are you doing?

Except its not remotely close to the "arithmetic average". 

3 QBs hit that "average".   So it doesn't need to be said that your requirements to be average would be hard to hit.  Or expect 

What are your predictions for Sam in 2020?  I will say this, if you predict that he'll miss your requirements, you'll win.  That combo isn't close to average

[Jet Nut]

47 minutes ago, Warfish said:

64.3%, 3,965 Passing Yards, 25 TD's, 11 INT's.  The literal arithmetic average of all QB's who started 14 or more games in 2019.

Yes, each on its own is average

Now how many hit all of those numbers, together?

Are you not understanding what I'm asking?

 

[Warfish]

5 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Except its not remotely close to the "arithmetic average". 

If you disagree, feel free to do the math yourself.  Pro football reference has all the numbers.  

But be assured, the math is the math, calculating averages isn't hard, and the numbers in post #273 are in fact the average of each metric for all QB's in 2019 who started 14, 15 or 16 games, as stated.

Quote

Yes, each on its own is average

Of course it is.  

If you think it's asking too much of Sam, ok.  You're entitled to that opinion.