The Truth About Sam Darnold

[Philc1]

5 minutes ago, Warfish said:

If you disagree, feel free to do the math yourself.  Pro football reference has all the numbers.  

But be assured, the math is the math, calculating averages isn't hard, and the numbers in post #273 are in fact the average of each metric for all QB's in 2019 who started 14, 15 or 16 games, as stated.

Of course it is.  

If you think it's asking too much of Sam, ok.  You're entitled to that opinion.

 

[Jet Nut]

34 minutes ago, Warfish said:

If you disagree, feel free to do the math yourself.  Pro football reference has all the numbers.  

But be assured, the math is the math, calculating averages isn't hard, and the numbers in post #273 are in fact the average of each metric for all QB's in 2019 who started 14, 15 or 16 games, as stated.

Of course it is.  

If you think it's asking too much of Sam, ok.  You're entitled to that opinion.

 

I don't need math.  I don't need spread sheets.  

The average for each individual catogry doesn't mean that its average to hit all three in the same season.  Youre dead wrong thinking hitting all three is the same as hitting one of them and need to take a step back and understand what youre asking

You've not only asked too much of Sam, you've asked for too much for around 40 NFL QBs.  Too much for Watson, Brees, etc.  

Once again, what are your predictions?  

[Warfish]

Just now, Jet Nut said:

Once again, what are your predictions?  

As of today? 

With the caveat (said earlier by JiF and repeated now) that we have the entire off-season pending and any and all projections are likely to change:

He will not play all 16 games.  He'll miss time.

He will not complete 64% or more of his passes.

He will not exceed 4,000 yards passing.  This one I am least confident in.

He is likely to get 25 or more passing TD's.  But he will also well exceed 11 INT's.

That's how I see it today. 

What about you, what is your expectation for his production?

 

[Apache 51]

3 minutes ago, Warfish said:

As of today? 

With the caveat (said earlier by JiF and repeated now) that we have the entire off-season pending and any and all projections are likely to change:

He will not play all 16 games.  He'll miss time.

He will not complete 64% or more of his passes.

He will not exceed 4,000 yards passing.  This one I am least confident in.

He is likely to get 25 or more passing TD's.  But he will also well exceed 11 INT's.

That's how I see it today. 

What about you, what is your expectation for his production?

 

Will they make the playoffs?

[Jet Nut]

45 minutes ago, Warfish said:

As of today? 

With the caveat (said earlier by JiF and repeated now) that we have the entire off-season pending and any and all projections are likely to change:

He will not play all 16 games.  He'll miss time.

He will not complete 64% or more of his passes.

He will not exceed 4,000 yards passing.  This one I am least confident in.

He is likely to get 25 or more passing TD's.  But he will also well exceed 11 INT's.

That's how I see it today. 

What about you, what is your expectation for his production?

 

So iffy in regards to 4K, somewhere close it sounds like nd 25+ TD passes? 

I'll take that as a 22-23 year old with less than 3 seasons worth of games under his belt.  

I'll add hes going to complete over 64% of his passes.  He hit 62% this year with nothing, in a new offense

[Warfish]

45 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

The average for each individual catogry doesn't mean that its average to hit all three in the same season.

Yes Nut, that is how statistical averages work.  

How would you state the average production of QB's who started 14-16 games, if not this way?

Quote

You've not only asked too much of Sam, you've asked for too much for around 40 NFL QBs.  Too much for Watson, Brees, etc.  

As a note, Brees didn't start 14 or more games, he wasn't part of the average calculation.

So the averages were 64.3%, 3,965 Passing Yards, 25 TD's, 11 INT's (better than a 2:1 TD:INT ratio) . 

In 2019, of the 20 QB's who started 14, 15 or 16 games in 2019, the following met or exceeded all or most of these averages:

1. Matt Ryan - 15 starts, 66.2%, 4,466 Yards, 26 TD's, 14 INT's (just missed on the INT's, but close to a 2:1 ratio, met or exceeded all others).

2. Tom Brady - 16 starts, 60.8%, 4,057 Yards, 24 TD's, 8 INT's (missed only on the completion percentage, 1 under on TD's, but =3:1 ratio, met or exceeded all others).

3. Carson Wentz - 16 starts, 63.9%, 4,039 Yards, 27 TD's, 7 INT's (just barely missed on completion percentage, met or exceeded all others).

4. Dak Prescott - 16 starts, 65.1%, 4,902 Yards, 30 TD's, 11 INT's (met or greatly exceeded all).

5. Phillip Rivers - 16 starts, 66.0%, 4,615 Yards, 23 TD's, 20 INT's (greatly exceeded yards and comp., missed on both TD's and INT's)

6. Aaron Rodgers - 16 starts, 62.0%, 4,002 Yards, 26 TD's, 4 INT's (missed only on completion percentage, met or exceeded all others).

7. Russel Wilson - 16 starts, 66.1%, 4,110 Yards, 31 TD's, 5 INT's (met or greatly exceeded all).

8. Derrick Carr - 16 Starts, 70.4%, 4,054 Yards, 21 TD's, 8 INT's (missed on TD's but had > 2:1 ratio, met or exceeded all others).

9. Jimmy Garrapolo - 16 starts, 69.1%, 3.978 Yards, 27 TD's, 13 INT's (missed slightly on INT's, but had > 2:1 ratio, met or exceeded all others).

10. Deshaun Watson - 15 starts, 67.3%, 3,852 Yards, 26 TD's, 12 INT's (missed a little on Yards, met or exceeded all others (1 over on INT but >2:1).

11. Kirk Cousins - 15 starts, 69.1%, 3,603 Yards, 26 TD's, 6 INT's (clearly missed on yards, met or exceeded all others, >4:1 TD:INT ratio).

12. Patrick Mahomes - 14 starts, 65.9%, 4,031 Yards, 26 TD's, 5 INT's (met or exceeded all in only 14 starts).

13. Lamar Jackson - Running QB who set all-time record for rushing yards, 66.1%, and has a spectacular 36-6 TD:INT (or a 6:1 ratio!).  Missed on passing yards only, more than made up with rushing and rushing TD's.

So that's 13 of 20 eligible (>50%) QB's who concurrently met or greatly exceeded at least 3 of 4 statistical criteria, and most of whom were very close to meeting the 4th and/or had a better than 2:1 ratio if not the exact averages.  By my analysis, all 13 can be considered as meeting or materially exceeding the average.

If Sam can meet or greatly exceed three of four metrics and be close on the fourth, I'll probably be quite pleased with that improvement.

Of the remaining 7 eligible QB's who IMO did not meet the average expectations:

1. Jared Goff - 4,638 Yards, but missed by a little on comp. and missed on both TD's and INT's and was <2:1 ratio.

2. J. Winston - 5,109 Yards (wow), but 33 TD (good) to 30 INT's (wow) was pretty bad, and missed on comp.

3. John Allen - 20-9 TD:INT met, but missed pretty badly on most others.  Closest to the "if Darnold wins and doesn't produce I'm ok" concept.

4. Mitch Trubisky - 15 starts, close on comp. missed on yards and TD's, missed on 2:1 ratio.

5. Jacoby Brissett - started the season a #2 QB.  Missed on all, but had a >2:1 TD:INT ratio at least.

6. Kyler Murray - 64.4%, 3,722 yards (sorta close) and 20:12 (close) in his rookie year.  

7. Baker Mayfield - Close in yards, not much else (22:21 ratio is horribad).

That's it, no other QB's started 14 or more games.  This was the group of which the averages were calculated.

 

 

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Then saying "I think Sam will meet or exceed the arithmetic average production of 14-16 start QB's in 2020" shouldn't take you twenty posts to say or be that hard, tbqh.

Setting and discussing expectations is what I'm doing.

What are you doing?

Twenty posts?  You moved the goal posts after dropping "the average" that only 3 QB's hit in the entire NFL, excluding the MVP.

So I actually dont know what were are doing here but it feels really stupid. 

 

[Warfish]

1 minute ago, JiF said:

So I actually dont know what were are doing here but it feels really stupid. 

Cool story bro.

[JustInFudge]

1 minute ago, Warfish said:

Cool story bro.

Word!  Are you passing along the new "average for a QB" in the NFL per Warfish to the coaches and players or just dropping this deep heavy knowledge on us lucky Jets fans?

 

[Jet Nut]

8 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Yes Nut, that is how statistical averages work.  

How would you state the average production of QB's who started 14-16 games, if not this way?

As a note, Brees didn't start 14 or more games, he wasn't part of the average calculation.

So the averages were 64.3%, 3,965 Passing Yards, 25 TD's, 11 INT's (better than a 2:1 TD:INT ratio) . 

In 2019, of the 20 QB's who started 14, 15 or 16 games in 2019, the following met or exceeded all or most of these averages:

1. Matt Ryan - 15 starts, 66.2%, 4,466 Yards, 26 TD's, 14 INT's (just missed on the INT's, but close to a 2:1 ratio, met or exceeded all others).

2. Tom Brady - 16 starts, 60.8%, 4,057 Yards, 24 TD's, 8 INT's (missed only on the completion percentage, 1 under on TD's, but =3:1 ratio, met or exceeded all others).

3. Carson Wentz - 16 starts, 63.9%, 4,039 Yards, 27 TD's, 7 INT's (just barely missed on completion percentage, met or exceeded all others).

4. Dak Prescott - 16 starts, 65.1%, 4,902 Yards, 30 TD's, 11 INT's (met or greatly exceeded all).

5. Phillip Rivers - 16 starts, 66.0%, 4,615 Yards, 23 TD's, 20 INT's (greatly exceeded yards and comp., missed on both TD's and INT's)

6. Aaron Rodgers - 16 starts, 62.0%, 4,002 Yards, 26 TD's, 4 INT's (missed only on completion percentage, met or exceeded all others).

7. Russel Wilson - 16 starts, 66.1%, 4,110 Yards, 31 TD's, 5 INT's (met or greatly exceeded all).

8. Derrick Carr - 16 Starts, 70.4%, 4,054 Yards, 21 TD's, 8 INT's (missed on TD's but had > 2:1 ratio, met or exceeded all others).

9. Jimmy Garrapolo - 16 starts, 69.1%, 3.978 Yards, 27 TD's, 13 INT's (missed slightly on INT's, but had > 2:1 ratio, met or exceeded all others).

10. Deshaun Watson - 15 starts, 67.3%, 3,852 Yards, 26 TD's, 12 INT's (missed a little on Yards, met or exceeded all others (1 over on INT but >2:1).

11. Kirk Cousins - 15 starts, 69.1%, 3,603 Yards, 26 TD's, 6 INT's (clearly missed on yards, met or exceeded all others, >4:1 TD:INT ratio).

12. Patrick Mahomes - 14 starts, 65.9%, 4,031 Yards, 26 TD's, 5 INT's (met or exceeded all in only 14 starts).

13. Lamar Jackson - Running QB who set all-time record for rushing yards, 66.1%, and has a spectacular 36-6 TD:INT (or a 6:1 ratio!).  Missed on passing yards only, more than made up with rushing and rushing TD's.

So that's 13 of 20 eligible (>50%) QB's who concurrently met or greatly exceeded at least 3 of 4 statistical criteria, and most of whom were very close to meeting the 4th and/or had a better than 2:1 ratio if not the exact averages.  By my analysis, all 13 can be considered as meeting or materially exceeding the average.

If Sam can meet or greatly exceed three of four metrics and be close on the fourth, I'll probably be quite pleased with that improvement.

Of the remaining 7 eligible QB's who IMO did not meet the average expectations:

1. Jared Goff - 4,638 Yards, but missed by a little on comp. and missed on both TD's and INT's and was <2:1 ratio.

2. J. Winston - 5,109 Yards (wow), but 33 TD (good) to 30 INT's (wow) was pretty bad, and missed on comp.

3. John Allen - 20-9 TD:INT met, but missed pretty badly on most others.  Closest to the "if Darnold wins and doesn't produce I'm ok" concept.

4. Mitch Trubisky - 15 starts, close on comp. missed on yards and TD's, missed on 2:1 ratio.

5. Jacoby Brissett - started the season a #2 QB.  Missed on all, but had a >2:1 TD:INT ratio at least.

6. Kyler Murray - 64.4%, 3,722 yards (sorta close) and 20:12 (close) in his rookie year.  

7. Baker Mayfield - Close in yards, not much else (22:21 ratio is horribad).

That's it, no other QB's started 14 or more games.  This was the group of which the averages were calculated.

 

 

So all but 3 still didnt hit the numbers you called mediocre and wanted Sam to hit.

I'm really not getting your insistence that he needed to hit 4K, 65% and 2:1 when all but 3 NFL QBs missed that number.  

He throws for 4K with 28 TDs, I could care less if hes "only" completes 62% of his passes

Thats all

[Warfish]

14 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

So all but 3 still didnt hit the numbers you called mediocre and wanted Sam to hit.

/facepalm

This why taking time to do deep analysis with research just isn't worth it most of the time.  

20 QB's started 14 games or more.  Of them, 13 met or exceeded the averages IMO as stated IN DETAIL in the post above with reasoning, actual stats and rationalization for the opinion.

Quote

He throws for 4K with 28 TDs, I could care less if hes "only" completes 62% of his passes

Under the same "meet 3 of 4" above, if he throws for 4,000+ Yards, has 28 TD's, and >2:1 ratio, I won't care so much if he's at "only" 62% comp. either.

 

[Jet Nut]

8 minutes ago, Warfish said:

/facepalm

This why taking time to do deep analysis with research just isn't worth it most of the time.  

20 QB's played 14 games or more.  Of them 13 met or exceeded the averages IMO as stated IN DETAIL in the post above with reasoning, actual stats and rationalization for the opinion.

Under the same "meet 3 of 4" above, if he throws for 4,000+ Yards, has 28 TD's, and >2:1 ratio, I won't care so much if he's at "only" 62% comp. either.

 

I'm not getting your argument.  Those three statistics, are totally unreasonable as a goal for any NFL QB but you want a neophyte QB to reach them when others cant?  Maybe its just unrealistic as a goal.  Because of your 20 QBs who played 14 or more games only 3, three, reached all three thresholds.  You've just added a 4th? So that you can flip flop the 4 numbers and shoot for 3 of the 4?  LOL, really?  

Come on, that you had to add a 4th number so that it can become 3 of 4, totally changes things and says all 3 wasn't realistic.  

[Maxman]

On 1/22/2020 at 11:20 AM, Warfish said:

The Truth about Sam Darnold is that if all NFL QB's and 2020 Draft Eligible QB's were redrafted today in a special "only QB's" Draft, Sam would not be picked in the top 20.

Prove me wrong.

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Please list your top 20 so we can see Sam rocking the 21st spot. Do tell.

[Maxman]

On 1/22/2020 at 11:20 AM, Warfish said:

The Truth about Sam Darnold is that if all NFL QB's and 2020 Draft Eligible QB's were redrafted today in a special "only QB's" Draft, Sam would not be picked in the top 20.

Prove me wrong.

I read this wrong, I still don't agree but I thought you were saying if Sam's draft happened today he wouldn't be top 20.

[Warfish]

17 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

I'm not getting your argument.

Apparently not.  And clearly I don't know how to help you understand it.  

The numbers and analysis and posts (especially post #286) are there if folks want to read them.  

I'll repeat:  

If you think an expectation of 64%, 4,000 yards and a 2:1 ratio (i.e. 25+ to 11 or less) is asking too much of a third year #3 overall elite-prospect QB, ok.  Agree to disagree.

If you think Sam Darnold is a better QB that QB's who are meeting and exceeded these production metrics, ok.  Agree to disagree.

If you agree with SAR, that Sam Darnold is the 2nd best QB in the AFC, ok.  Agree to disagree.

As JiF would say, good talk!

 

 

 

[Jet Nut]

16 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Apparently not.  And clearly I don't know how to help you understand it.  

The numbers and analysis and posts (especially post #286) are there if folks want to read them.  

I'll repeat:  

If you think an expectation of 64%, 4,000 yards and a 2:1 ratio (i.e. 25+ to 11 or less) is asking too much of a third year #3 overall elite-prospect QB, ok.  Agree to disagree.

If you think Sam Darnold is a better QB that QB's who are meeting and exceeded these production metrics, ok.  Agree to disagree.

If you agree with SAR, that Sam Darnold is the 2nd best QB in the AFC, ok.  Agree to disagree.

As JiF would say, good talk!

 

 

 

LOl, its not me. You gave me three numbers he had to reach to be mediocre.  Turns out only three QBs in the entire NFL hit all three.  Not understanding where the explaining part comes in.  There isn't an explanation that works.  

One more time.  YES.  He isn't doing it, very, very few will.

This isn't a fair expectation to anyone who looks at the numbers.  Only three reached them.  Not Watson, a 6.  Not Allen a 7.  Not Trubisky, a 2.  Not Mayfield, a 1.  Sam probably won't either, I agree.  Different is I don't think its significant, 3rd overall or not 

Quote

If you think an expectation of 64%, 4,000 yards and a 2:1 ratio (i.e. 25+ to 11 or less) is asking too much of a third year #3 overall elite-prospect QB, ok. 

 

[JohnnyD]

Advanced stuff.  I've been on forums since ye ol usenet days of alt.sports.football-pro: nyjets circa 1994.
SAR I

I actually remember those days.

Sent from my SM-G965U using JetNation.com mobile app

[Warfish]

33 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

You gave me three numbers he had to reach to be mediocre.

I gave you four numbers actually.  Comp%.  Passing Yards. TD's.  INT's.  

Quote

Turns out only three QBs in the entire NFL hit all three.

I will quote the previous post:

So that's 13 of 20 eligible (>50%) QB's who concurrently met or greatly exceeded at least 3 of 4 statistical criteria, and most of whom were very close to meeting the 4th and/or had a better than 2:1 ratio if not the exact averages. 

Quote

 Not understanding where the explaining part comes in.  There isn't an explanation that works.  

/shrug  

Quote

This isn't a fair expectation to anyone who looks at the numbers.  Only three reached them. 

Ok.

So what is the average production of a 16 game NFL starter, as you see it? 

Do you expect Darnold to meet the average, as you define it, in 2020?

[Jet Nut]

13 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Quote

I gave you four numbers actually.  Comp%.  Passing Yards. TD's.  INT's.  

You added a 4th late in the game when you realized that 3 wouldn't work for all but 3 NFL QBs.  3 out of 4 is a whole new ballgame.

Quote

 

I will quote the previous post:

So that's 13 of 20 eligible (>50%) QB's who concurrently met or greatly exceeded at least 3 of 4 statistical criteria, and most of whom were very close to meeting the 4th and/or had a better than 2:1 ratio if not the exact averages. 

/shrug  

Ok.

 

We're doing a nice spin here.  You went on and on that those 3 numbers were average.  Average then became the mediocre line.  Wrong, the 3 combined are not average  You can copy and paste to your hearts content but that 3 of 4 came in after hours of arguing about math and spread sheets proving those were averages.  When no disputed that.  Just your failed logic that if all those numbers were average hitting all 3 makes you average.  Again, wrong.

Quote

So what is the average production of a 16 game NFL starter, as you see it? 

Lets get real.  You've been down on Darnold since day 1.  You don't like him.  Thats fine.  Just don't bring up unreachable numbers and ask if I think he can hit them.  I'm not doing that.  Hes a top QB prospect.  You don't think so.  He wouldn't go top 20 or whatever.  I don't agree, that's painfully obvious.  Most who know agree with me so I have that for now.  No big deal but lets be honest here.  

We've been getting along, don't want to go backwards.

 

[Biggs]

The 16th rated QB in percentage was 63.9, 3,603 yards, 22 TD's.  A 2 to 1 TD to Int seems pretty reasonable.  If you hit 65, 4000, 25 that's arguably elite.   If Sam could get to 63/64% around 4K (3700 to 4200) and bring up his completion per attempt to 7.5 per that would be pretty good.  Over 20 TD's with less than 10 INT's seems like a reasonable expectation.  

There are a lot of variables.  Sam plays outside in the Northeast and in a division with all outside stadiums.  It's minor but it does impact QB stats on the margin.  These are all on the margin stats.  

I'm much more concerned is can he drive the team consistently down the field.  Flip field position, score TD's in the red zone, not make the critical turnover.  There's a lot more than pure numbers that go into good QB play. 

[Warfish]

18 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

You added a 4th late in the game when you realized that 3 wouldn't work for all but 3 NFL QBs.  3 out of 4 is a whole new ballgame.

From my very first post on this average talk (to JiF):

Here, let me show you:  I do not believe, today, that Sam Darnold will break 4,000 yards passing.  I do not believe he will have a 2:1 TD:INT ratio.  And I do not believe he will throw for a 65% of higher completion percentage in 2020.  

This was a mental estimate of what the average was, which turned out pretty close.

I then ran the actual numbers for starters who started 14-16 games, and got this:

64.3%, 3,965 Passing Yards, 25 TD's, 11 INT's.  The literal arithmetic average of all QB's who started 14 or more games in 2019.

All in all, my initial est. was pretty close.

If you're making a distinction between "at least a 2:1 TD:INT ratio" and "25 TD's and 11 INT's", then you only support my previous posted data that 13 of 20 eligible QB's qualified as meeting or exceeding these averages, as some did not strictly meet the 25+ and 11- numbers, but did exceed a 2:1 ratio.  TD:INT ratio in inherently two numbers represented as one.  

Quote

You went on and on that those 3 numbers were average.

They are, for QB's who started 14, 15 or 16 games in the 2019 season.  As said previously, if you doubt them, you can always feel free to re-run the numbers yourself and post the results.  

Quote

Lets get real.  You've been down on Darnold since day 1.  You don't like him.  Thats fine.  Just don't bring up unreachable numbers and ask if I think he can hit them.  I'm not doing that.  Hes a top QB prospect.  You don't think so.  He wouldn't go top 20 or whatever.  I don't agree, that's painfully obvious.  Most who know agree with me so I have that for now.  No big deal but lets be honest here. 

Respectfully, how is this an answer to asking you what the average production of a 16 game NFL QB is, as you see it?

Quote

We've been getting along, don't want to go backwards.

I'm not angry with you Nut, I'm more frustrated than anything. 

I don't understand how you cannot understand.  And I'm frustrated I cannot help you understand.  

You say Watson doesn't meet them, for example.  You said "Only three reached them.  Not Watson..."

So lets look:

The averages again are 64.3%, 3,965 Passing Yards, 25 TD's, 11 INT's.

Watson in 2019 was 15 starts, 67.3%, 3,852 Yards, 26 TD's, 12 INT's

He was (in 15 games) 100 yards short, 3% over on Comp., 1 TD over on TD and 1 TD over on INT.

Strictly speaking, he did not make it.  Materially, he clearly did make it.  

I honestly don't know how to proceed here.  Clearly Watson is almost # for # the average producer of those 20 eligible QB's who started 14, 15 or 16 games.  The fact he is very slightly short in one, and over on another, doesn't make the analysis wrong, it's how average calculations work.  

But again, I AM open to alternate viewpoints.  I'd be very interested, and ask again, for you to tell us what the average production of a 16 game NFL starter is, as you see it or calculate it.

 

 

[Losmeister]

4 minutes ago, Warfish said:

From my very first post on this average talk (to JiF):

Here, let me show you:  I do not believe, today, that Sam Darnold will break 4,000 yards passing.  I do not believe he will have a 2:1 TD:INT ratio.  And I do not believe he will throw for a 65% of higher completion percentage in 2020.  

This was a mental estimate of what the average was, which turned out pretty close.

I then ran the actual numbers for starters who started 14-16 games, and got this:

64.3%, 3,965 Passing Yards, 25 TD's, 11 INT's.  The literal arithmetic average of all QB's who started 14 or more games in 2019.

All in all, my initial est. was pretty close.

If you're making a distinction between "at least a 2:1 TD:INT ratio" and "25 TD's and 11 INT's", then you only support my previous posted data that 13 of 20 eligible QB's qualified as meeting or exceeding these averages, as some did not strictly meet the 25+ and 11- numbers, but did exceed a 2:1 ratio.  TD:INT ratio in inherently two numbers represented as one.  

They are, for QB's who started 14, 15 or 16 games in the 2019 season.  As said previously, if you doubt them, you can always feel free to re-run the numbers yourself and post the results.  

Respectfully, how is this an answer to asking you what the average production of a 16 game NFL QB is, as you see it?

I'm not angry with you Nut, I'm more frustrated than anything. 

I don't understand how you cannot understand.  And I'm frustrated I cannot help you understand.  

You say Watson doesn't meet them, for example.  You said "Only three reached them.  Not Watson..."

So lets look:

The averages again are 64.3%, 3,965 Passing Yards, 25 TD's, 11 INT's.

Watson in 2019 was 15 starts, 67.3%, 3,852 Yards, 26 TD's, 12 INT's

He was (in 15 games) 100 yards short, 3% over on Comp., 1 TD over on TD and 1 TD over on INT.

Strictly speaking, he did not make it.  Materially, he clearly did make it.  

I honestly don't know how to proceed here.  Clearly Watson is almost # for # the average producer of those 20 eligible QB's who started 14, 15 or 16 games.  The fact he is very slightly short in one, and over on another, doesn't make the analysis wrong, it's how average calculations work.  

But again, I AM open to alternate viewpoints.  I'd be very interested, and ask again, for you to tell us what the average production of a 16 game NFL starter is, as you see it or calculate it.

 

 

i think i have tried using numbers...     i dont have the stomach for it any longer...  

"their eyes know better"  ...   god bless you

[SAR I]

59 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

i think i have tried using numbers...     i dont have the stomach for it any longer...  

"their eyes know better"  ...   god bless you

I'm good.

SAR I

[Losmeister]

14 minutes ago, SAR I said:

I'm good.

SAR I

93 on a scale of 154?

And what was his rating in the games BEFORE that? 

[Losmeister]

3 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

93 on a scale of 154?

And what was his rating in the games BEFORE that? 

AT years end Sam Darnold passer rating was 84.3 27th.

[SAR I]

42 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

93 on a scale of 154?

And what was his rating in the games BEFORE that? 

Before doesn't count.  Mononucleosis is a devastating illness for a professional athlete.  Beachum's absence (Pats, at Jags, at Fins) really hurt.  The playbook comfortability that Sam would have had was hindered by missing an in-season month.

The last 8 games are a fair way to evaluate Non-Mono Darno ™ .

SAR I

"Non-Mono Darno" is a trademark of SAR I.  All rights reserved.  ® ™ SAR I, 2020.

[Warfish]

6 minutes ago, SAR I said:

The last 8 games are a fair way to evaluate Non-Mono Darno ™ .

SAR I

2020 will be a better way to evaluate Darnold.

Three full NFL seasons to show the world what he is.

[SAR I]

6 minutes ago, Warfish said:

2020 will be a better way to evaluate Darnold.

Three full NFL seasons to show the world what he is.

Yes.  Agreed.  If he's hurt or ill again, that becomes who he is.  It's how we evaluate Enunwa.  It's how we evaluate Herndon.

Gase and Darnold are both victims or beneficiaries of injuries.  Let's find out which it is.  Let's have a healthy 2020 with a strong offensive roster and see what happens.  A big step for all parties is that there is no change in coaching staff or quarterback.  Same playbook, just smarter at calling it and executing it.  It's been ages since we could say that.

SAR I

[Jet Nut]

7 hours ago, Losmeister said:

93 on a scale of 154?

And what was his rating in the games BEFORE that? 

True, improvement with experience is dumb

[Ben Had]

18 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

I don't need math.  I don't need spread sheets.  

  

I don't need no stinking badges.....?

[Jet Nut]

59 minutes ago, Ben Had said:

I don't need no stinking badges.....?

Great scene.

Great movie...?

 

[Jet Nut]

17 hours ago, Warfish said:

The averages again are 64.3%, 3,965 Passing Yards, 25 TD's, 11 INT's.

Watson in 2019 was 15 starts, 67.3%, 3,852 Yards, 26 TD's, 12 INT's

Well you do realize your original requirement was 4,000 yards.  Which Watson didnt have.  

And lets get to the core, you were saying that these numbers were average, mediocre numbers and with Watson almost being there it shows that its more than just mediocrity 

I do get what youre saying, just think your numbers are at the top of elite level, harder to reach than you realize.  

Don't get frustrated. 

[Warfish]

1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

Well you do realize your original requirement was 4,000 yards.  Which Watson didnt have.  

And lets get to the core, you were saying that these numbers were average, mediocre numbers and with Watson almost being there it shows that its more than just mediocrity 

I do get what youre saying, just think your numbers are at the top of elite level, harder to reach than you realize.  

Don't get frustrated. 

I have no plan to get frustrated, and I'm happy we've gotten along better.

But I will keep asking, respectfully, how YOU calculate the average production metrics of a 16 game NFL starting QB.

I've been very forthcoming (and in quite extended detail) as to how I reached my numbers, why, and how I interpret them (again in detail) and how 13 of the 20 qualifying QB's met or exceeded the "average" in a material way.

You've countered that my numbers are flawed, do not represent an average, and are unobtainable by anyone but the most elite. 

Ok, I can be open to an alternate calculation of average.....but I'd like more than just being criticized without any analysis of your own.

TLDR:  If my #'s for average are wrong, what IS the average, as you see it, in terms of QB production?

We cannot rationally discuss/debate if Darnold can reach "average", unless we can agree on what, in specific numbers, average is and how it's being calculated.

I think it's a fair request if you disagree with my calculations.

[Jet Nut]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

I have no plan to get frustrated, and I'm happy we've gotten along better.

But I will keep asking, respectfully, how YOU calculate the average production metrics of a 16 game NFL starting QB.

I've been very forthcoming (and in quite extended detail) as to how I reached my numbers, why, and how I interpret them (again in detail) and how 13 of the 20 qualifying QB's met or exceeded the "average" in a material way.

You've countered that my numbers are flawed, do not represent an average, and are unobtainable by anyone but the most elite. 

Ok, I can be open to an alternate calculation of average.....but I'd like more than just being criticized without any analysis of your own.

TLDR:  If my #'s for average are wrong, what IS the average, as you see it, in terms of QB production?

We cannot rationally discuss/debate if Darnold can reach "average", unless we can agree on what, in specific numbers, average is and how it's being calculated.

I think it's a fair request if you disagree with my calculations.

I am glad we’re cool with each other also.  
 

I don’t think there’s a need for what’s an average for QBs.  Their production is too varied.  For years I was a RWilson fan and was told he wasn’t as good as others.  Well yes, defensive team, great RB, his numbers suffer.  But you eyes tell you he’s a big part of the offense.  Now he’s throwing more and all of a sudden he has more fans.  
QB is too dependent on factors other than stats.  

 

[Warfish]

45 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

I don’t think there’s a need for what’s an average for QBs. 

Then I think we're at an impasse.  But fair enough.