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Who SHOULD Be The MVP?

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1 minute ago, JiF said:

I understand it perfectly.  Dak Prescott is the best QB in the NFL! 

Actually, DVOA had Brees # 1, Lamar Jackson # 2 and Mahomes # 3 this season.  

Dak finished # 6.

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1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

How do you not give it to Jackson?

The MVP doesn't say the winner is the best player in the league, the most valuable to his team.

And that's Jackson. 

But is he really, though?

I'm certain not knocking the year for the ages he's had, against which they'll measure all future ones from him and everyone else thereafter. But the truth is they were a veteran team with a veteran, SB-winning HC - in short, a playoff team - without Jackson, if Flacco hadn't melted down. Flacco had gotten so much worse, and unreliable, that it's easy to overlook how much better they'd have been with any upgraded replacement (for example, Ryan Tannehill). Jackson had less of a turnaround impact on the Ravens win total than Tannehill had on the Titans. Perhaps they'd have been a 14-win team with RT replacing Flacco instead of Jackson, even though their skillsets are very different. 

Now compare that to the Titans with and without Tannehill. They were a loser team, with an inexperienced HC, who were headed for yet another top 10 draft pick. It was the Titans, rather than the Jets, who looked like they had a worst-ever OL: Mariota was getting sacked on every 7 dropbacks, and was flushed out of a pass attempt (sacks + scrambles for games that officially change the stat to a rushing attempt) even more than that.

It's relevant because, just like the Jets, it could have been argued that this was the cause of the team's woes, and this is where they needed to look to fix the whole offense, rather than just moving on from Mariota. Surely there were Titans fans that claimed, "Hey, just give Mariota an OL that merely gets him sacked once every 10-12 dropbacks before blaming him for the lousy offense" and the familiar "Joe Montana couldn't succeed behind this OL" (not unlike the imagined sure-thing comparisons we've routinely seen here for many players).

Hey, Henry was a good RB before Tannehill came in, but it's hard to ignore that he was a back who chiefly padded year-total stats in one or two games when his line played lights-out (or against a bottom-tier defense outright), was inconsistently avergaing 3.7ypc back during the 2019 Mariota starts, then 4.1 in Tannehill's first start still shaking off the rust vs San Diego, and then an eye-popping 6 ypc thereafter including through the playoffs. Since Henry was healthy before and after, and it's unlikely he suddenly went from good to unbelieveable RB midseason, it's hard to ignore how much better that same OL seemed with Mariota vs a competent QB. Or seen another way, just how toxic Mariota was no matter how many believed it was the bad team around him for some time, plus bad/novice offensive coaching, and pointed to his 69% completion percentage last year as proof positive that he was a good QB in mostly bad situations.

Then they remove Mariota, who wasn't exactly killing the team with turnovers, and replace him with another former top 10 pick who was seen as a similar draft whiff. Then boom -- even after getting dug into a 2-4 hole before making the QB change, the Titans now find themselves in the conference championship game, 60 minutes from the superbowl. 

Is the award for the best statistical season, the one with the most wow plays, or is it the most irreplaceable player -- i.e. the most valuable player to his team?

I think the only thing that even casts a shadow on that being Tannehill this yea,r with the 180 team fortunes without then with him, is the disparate playoff stats between him and Henry. But to be fair when the FPS camera angle shows what Tannehill is seeing on his dropbacks, it does show that the rest of the offense is helping DH far more than RT. Tannehill's receivers aren't nearly as wide open as Henry has consistent holes to run through; and the truth is the only WR on their team who made noise all year long is a 2nd round rookie who's gotten little to no separation against these good, veteran, playoff defenses rather than the awful Raiders/Texans/Falcons/Jax pass defenses that made up almost all of his numbers on the year. 

All that said, I'm sympathetic to Jackson getting the nod for a different reason: it's a lot easier for a 5-6-win team to become a 10-11 win team than it is for an 8-10 win team to become a 14-win team. Jackson's presence did that; whether Tannehill's would have also done that in his place is just speculation. To me, that's the better argument than his pure stats and ESPN highlights, impressive and arguably deserving of the award for that as well.

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1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Actually, DVOA had Brees # 1, Lamar Jackson # 2 and Mahomes # 3 this season.

with Prescott and Stafford rounding out the top 5?  Seems legit! 

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Just now, JiF said:

with Prescott and Stafford rounding out the top 5?  Seems legit! 

No they had Stafford at 4, Tannehill at 5 and Dak at 6.

Certainly a far better tool than QB Rating, which had Tannehill at # 1.  

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1 bad game doesn’t change anything 

lamar had a historic season 

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2 hours ago, TeddEY said:

Why?  What exactly has he done to put him on the same level as the guy who’s owned us for nearly 2 decades, won 6 Super Bowls, and cheated along the way?

he makes our guy look like an overdrafted, scared, slow chump...     is my guess

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1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

No they had Stafford at 4, Tannehill at 5 and Dak at 6.

Certainly a far better tool than QB Rating, which had Tannehill at # 1.  

Who were the 10+ running backs ranked ahead of Derrick Henry?

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Just now, JiF said:

Who were the 10+ running backs ranked ahead of Derrick Henry?

 

Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk ▾ VOA Runs Yards EYds TD FUM Suc
Rate
Rk
R.Mostert SF 189 7 186 7 26.4% 1 25.9% 137 772 770 8 1 53% 9
M.Ingram BAL 250 3 247 3 19.1% 2 18.7% 202 1,018 1,183 10 2 60% 1
K.Drake 2TM 196 5 174 8 18.9% 3 15.7% 170 817 933 8 2 51% 16
E.Elliott DAL 320 1 267 1 16.2% 4 12.1% 301 1,358 1,630 12 3 56% 4
C.McCaffrey CAR 273 2 187 6 14.5% 5 7.2% 287 1,387 1,461 15 1 47% 28
J.Howard PHI 111 14 103 14 13.9% 6 12.3% 119 525 605 6 0 53% 8
A.Jones GB 209 4 223 4 12.2% 7 13.5% 236 1,091 1,205 16 2 56% 5
G.Edwards BAL 121 13 123 12 11.0% 8 11.3% 133 710 728 2 2 56% 6
L.Murray NO 121 12 116 13 10.1% 9 9.4% 146 637 754 5 0 60% 2
D.Cook MIN 184 8 188 5 9.4% 10 9.7% 250 1,135 1,179 13 3 49% 23
D.Henry TEN 190 6 247 2 6.5% 11 11.1% 303 1,542 1,388 16 5 50% 17

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2 hours ago, JiF said:

Jackson had a record breaking year, passing Mike Vick for most rushing yards for a QB.  When you factor that and he accounted for 43 TD's and had the best record in the NFL, it's pretty hard to argue for someone else.

 

This^ 

I’d go Lamar Jackson but If I had to pick someone else, I’d pick McCaffery. What a year he had, too.

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Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk ▾ VOA Runs Yards EYds TD FUM Suc
Rate
Rk
R.Mostert SF 189 7 186 7 26.4% 1 25.9% 137 772 770 8 1 53% 9
M.Ingram BAL 250 3 247 3 19.1% 2 18.7% 202 1,018 1,183 10 2 60% 1
K.Drake 2TM 196 5 174 8 18.9% 3 15.7% 170 817 933 8 2 51% 16
E.Elliott DAL 320 1 267 1 16.2% 4 12.1% 301 1,358 1,630 12 3 56% 4
C.McCaffrey CAR 273 2 187 6 14.5% 5 7.2% 287 1,387 1,461 15 1 47% 28
J.Howard PHI 111 14 103 14 13.9% 6 12.3% 119 525 605 6 0 53% 8
A.Jones GB 209 4 223 4 12.2% 7 13.5% 236 1,091 1,205 16 2 56% 5
G.Edwards BAL 121 13 123 12 11.0% 8 11.3% 133 710 728 2 2 56% 6
L.Murray NO 121 12 116 13 10.1% 9 9.4% 146 637 754 5 0 60% 2
D.Cook MIN 184 8 188 5 9.4% 10 9.7% 250 1,135 1,179 13 3 49% 23
D.Henry TEN 190 6 247 2 6.5% 11 11.1% 303 1,542 1,388 16 5 50% 17

Well if that's not the most lol worthy list I've seen this year, I dont know what is...

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2 minutes ago, JiF said:

Who were the 10+ running backs ranked ahead of Derrick Henry?

DYAR rankings, which matters more for RB's than QB's because it factors sample size more:

 

Player Team DYAR Rk ▾ YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Runs Yards EYds TD FUM Suc
Rate
Rk
E.Elliott DAL 320 1 267 1 16.2% 4 12.1% 301 1,358 1,630 12 3 56% 4
C.McCaffrey CAR 273 2 187 6 14.5% 5 7.2% 287 1,387 1,461 15 1 47% 28
M.Ingram BAL 250 3 247 3 19.1% 2 18.7% 202 1,018 1,183 10 2 60% 1
A.Jones GB 209 4 223 4 12.2% 7 13.5% 236 1,091 1,205 16 2 56% 5
K.Drake 2TM 196 5 174 8 18.9% 3 15.7% 170 817 933 8 2 51% 16
D.Henry TEN 190 6

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1 minute ago, Patriot Killa said:

This^ 

I’d go Lamar Jackson but If I had to pick someone else, I’d pick McCaffery. What a year he had, too.

Well according to DVOA, McCaffery season was barely top 5.  lol

I agree, McCaffery was insane this year just hard to give him a nod when his team won 5 games.

It's Jackson or Henry for me....but it's Jackson and there really isnt a solid argument against it.

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3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

DYAR rankings, which matters more for RB's than QB's because it factors sample size more:

 

Player Team DYAR Rk ▾ YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Runs Yards EYds TD FUM Suc
Rate
Rk
E.Elliott DAL 320 1 267 1 16.2% 4 12.1% 301 1,358 1,630 12 3 56% 4
C.McCaffrey CAR 273 2 187 6 14.5% 5 7.2% 287 1,387 1,461 15 1 47% 28
M.Ingram BAL 250 3 247 3 19.1% 2 18.7% 202 1,018 1,183 10 2 60% 1
A.Jones GB 209 4 223 4 12.2% 7 13.5% 236 1,091 1,205 16 2 56% 5
K.Drake 2TM 196 5 174 8 18.9% 3 15.7% 170 817 933 8 2 51% 16
D.Henry TEN 190 6

Neat

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The only correct answer is Russell Wilson. If he goes down the Seahawks are the worst team in the leuage. 

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1 minute ago, nico002 said:

The only correct answer is Russell Wilson. If he goes down the Seahawks are the worst team in the leuage. 

You can say that for just about any team whose franchise QB goes down.  

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2 minutes ago, nico002 said:

The only correct answer is Russell Wilson. If he goes down the Seahawks are the worst team in the leuage. 

Thats what some have said. I tend to agree.

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12 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

DYAR rankings, which matters more for RB's than QB's because it factors sample size more:

 

Player Team DYAR Rk ▾ YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Runs Yards EYds TD FUM Suc
Rate
Rk
E.Elliott DAL 320 1 267 1 16.2% 4 12.1% 301 1,358 1,630 12 3 56% 4
C.McCaffrey CAR 273 2 187 6 14.5% 5 7.2% 287 1,387 1,461 15 1 47% 28
M.Ingram BAL 250 3 247 3 19.1% 2 18.7% 202 1,018 1,183 10 2 60% 1
A.Jones GB 209 4 223 4 12.2% 7 13.5% 236 1,091 1,205 16 2 56% 5
K.Drake 2TM 196 5 174 8 18.9% 3 15.7% 170 817 933 8 2 51% 16
D.Henry TEN 190 6

This is fun to read on your phone. 

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7 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

MVP is a regular season award and Lamar Jackson was clearly the MVP. This shouldn't be close.

It depends on what you consider qualifies a player as MVP. To me it’s not stats. It’s replaceability

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13 minutes ago, JiF said:

Neat

it aint perfect cos nothing is. 

but Football Outsiuders is a useful tool.

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2 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

it aint perfect cos nothing is. 

but Football Outsiuders is a useful tool.

So is spell check. 

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12 minutes ago, nico002 said:

The only correct answer is Russell Wilson. If he goes down the Seahawks are the worst team in the leuage. 

That would be my vote as well.  The nubmer of plays last night where protection broke down and he extended plays and made throws down field was incredible.  And he does that every week.  When the Seahawks fall behind, they put the ball in Wilson's hands and he brings them back.  Happened all season long -- he led the league in 4Q comebacks and game winning drives. 

If the Seahawk defense got a stop on one of those two 3rd downs late in the game yuesterday, the Packers were not going to stop Wilson.  He would get my MVP vote, if I had one.  

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Just now, Lith said:

That would be my vote as well.  The nubmer of plays last night where protection broke down and he extended plays and made throws down field was incredible.  And he does that every week.  When the Seahawks fall behind, they put the ball in Wilson's hands and he brings them back.  Happened all season long -- he led the league in 4Q comebacks and game winning drives. 

If the Seahawk defense got a stop on one of those two 3rd downs late in the game yuesterday, the Packers were not going to stop Wilson.  He would get my MVP vote, if I had one.  

He carried that team all year. 

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Just now, Losmeister said:

it aint perfect cos nothing is. 

but Football Outsiuders is a useful tool.

For what? 

I guess if you're considering signing a free agent it might be something to use from a due diligence perspective but otherwise, I'm not sure how this is valuable to anything other than a reference point in a debate on a message board.

 

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1 minute ago, JiF said:

For what? 

I guess if you're considering signing a free agent it might be something to use from a due diligence perspective but otherwise, I'm not sure how this is valuable to anything other than a reference point in a debate on a message board.

 

 

Here's how its useful:  When you're considering paying Robby Anderson low-end WR1 money but then notice that, even though his standard #'s looked OK, he was # 52 among NFL WR's in DVOA, next to guys like Phillip Dorsett and Chris Conley.  IE he's more of a low-end or middle-of-the-pack WR2.  

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2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Here's how its useful:  When you're considering paying Robby Anderson low-end WR1 money but then notice that, even though his standard #'s looked OK, he was # 52 among NFL WR's in DVOA, next to guys like Phillip Dorsett and Chris Conley.  IE he's more of a low-end or middle-of-the-pack WR2.  

always said he was a #2. as for pay...  middle #2 becomes low end #1 with inflation, salary increase creep, no?

not an argument for overpaying. just paying regular old market rate.

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7 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

always said he was a #2. as for pay...  middle #2 becomes low end #1 with inflation, salary increase creep, no?

not an argument for overpaying. just paying regular old market rate.

 

Sure, because Robby will be the flavor of the month among a weak free agent WR crop and not really for legit reasons.  He's the only young guy on the market who has some decent numbers.  

But the truth is, Phillip Dorsett (also a FA) can do a lot of the things Robby can do for much cheaper. 

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Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

Sure, because Robby will be the flavor of the month among a week free agent WR crop.  He's the only young guy on the market who has some decent numbers.  

But the truth is, Phillip Dorsett (also a FA) can do a lot of the things Robby can do for much cheaper.  

i wouldnt say cos i dont know those players...  wouldnt you wanna guy that can do ALL THE THINGS RA does?

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2 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

i wouldnt say cos i dont know those players...  wouldnt you wanna guy that can do ALL THE THINGS RA does?

All the things Robby does aren't that valuable.  He's limited in what he can do, which is why he's a WR2, not a WR1.  Let someone else pay him the borderline WR1/top-end WR2 money. 

I'm not saying we should sign someone like Dorsett, just saying there will be some "market inefficiency" stuff involving Robby that we should allow to be another team's problem, barring Anderson being passed on by all 31 other teams at the number he's looking for.  Let Robby test the market and only sign him if he comes crawling back for somewhere in that $10-12M range.

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5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Here's how its useful:  When you're considering paying Robby Anderson low-end WR1 money but then notice that, even though his standard #'s looked OK, he was # 52 among NFL WR's in DVOA, next to guys like Phillip Dorsett and Chris Conley.  IE he's more of a low-end or middle-of-the-pack WR2.  

Did I not call out doing due diligence in FA as the only way I find it useful?  lol

While his ranking is 52 and you've used 2 meh players as your example of his peers, you're not telling the whole story.  If I'm reading this right, he's right behind TY Hilton, Alshon Jeffery, Christian Kirk and ahead of Julian Edelman, Jamison Crowder, Smith-Shuster and some other names that people love. 

So again, it's a neat little thingy to look at but very flawed and not really something that should be used to influence your decision making.

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5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

just saying there will be some "market inefficiency" stuff involving Robby

gotcha.

too bad Sam cant throw the deep ball. he'da had 10 tds

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32 minutes ago, New York Mick said:

It depends on what you consider qualifies a player as MVP. To me it’s not stats. It’s replaceability

You think that Ravens team would have been nearly as good without Lamar?

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Lamar should win and I would vote for him.  Led his team to the best record in the league including 12 in a row.  Broke rushing records for a QB, finished 6th in rushing and best avg per carry in the NFL.  He also led all QB's in the NFL with 36 td passes.   

Sounds like an MVP.

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44 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

You can say that for just about any team whose franchise QB goes down.  

Nope, Saints 5-0 without Brees, Chiefs 3-0 without mahomes, Ravens were in the playoffs last year. 
 

mcaffrey getting votes is laughable 

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