Guns ablazing

[JetsLife]

General rule: it’s very difficult to buy championships in the NFL, impossible to buy sustainable success. NBA definitely, MLB to a large degree; NFL not so much due to salary cap. Just not enough precious cap dollars to go around to fill out a top tier, deep roster via free agency.

It’s all about the draft, and a few key free agent signings. And it’s essential to hit big on costly free agents as they eat up multiple players’ cap space. On-field production must almost exceed the contract.

[Losmeister]

2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Buns a-glazin’

 

cc: @joewilly12

does Paulie Shore get a credit?

[Losmeister]

Another thread counting HERNDON as a significant TE in the NFL. Thats a bad/rusky bet. 

[FidelioJet]

1 hour ago, SR24 said:

These are the worst takes on here. You don't trade down just so you can justify drafting offense especially not when a prospect like Okudah is there you have to take what the draft gives you or move up to get what you want. 

Just like Leo and Q - guys we couldn’t pass up?

Sorry, the draft is a crap shoot - right now the Jets have lost their right to go BPA = they’ve made too many mistakes and HAVE to go offense - even if it’s not the top player on their board. 

[kdels62]

You can build a decent team in an offseason. The Bills did it. Darnold in year 3 shouldn’t be playing along side “a team looking towards the future” but a team ready to compete in some capacity.

[varjet]

WR, CB or EDGE could be the right pick where the Jets pick.   They should not force offense.  What they should not do in this draft is pick a G, C, Rb, TE, DL, S or ILB in this draft, given who they have on the roster and what they are paying them.

So that basically leaves the ability to draft an impact OT, WR, EDGE or CB.  One will be available.

But that likely means that the Jets should have a plan for at least 2 Ts and a Guard before the draft.   I think they could count on being able to draft a G and perhaps competition at C.  

[Greenbloodblitz]

 I will say this. Somebody is getting traded, and a few guys are being re-signed,  and then there are free agents to bring on board. Obviously we can only speculate.

 Bell, Adams, Mosley, and Maye..maybe even Avery Williamson's situation will eventually determine what falls into place. Also whether or not we re-sign Anderson. One way or another I think we're going to be adding more picks to The 20/20 draft.  Count on it.

[SR24]

30 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Just like Leo and Q - guys we couldn’t pass up?

Sorry, the draft is a crap shoot - right now the Jets have lost their right to go BPA = they’ve made too many mistakes and HAVE to go offense - even if it’s not the top player on their board. 

You go BPA at the positions you need you don't just write off drafting defense because Leo sucked and a banged up Q didn't get more sacks than you wanted. You don't reach on worse talent just because they play offense, take what the draft gives you. You can still build the offense without drafting OL/WR 1st round if the value isn't there. 

[More Cowbell]

[Wonderboy]

3 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

The problem with that is that if we only add 1 FA and 2 prospects, we are starting Edoga and Harrison. IIRC, those are the only 2 guys under contract, unless you are keeping Winters on board.  The rest of those slots have to be filled, with retreads or otherwise.

Which is why you trade Adams for a #1 and let’s say a #4.  That would give us Two #1, a # 2, and two# 3.  That’s 5 picks in the first 100 of the draft. You go OL, Edge, OL, WR, RB. Of course the last 2 three’s you take BPA of need. But those first 3 picks should be OL and Edge. With lots of money to spend in FA, we could remake the OL easily. Draft 2 OL, sign 2 OL and keep Lewis who played decently at G. Resign Beachum, Shell for depth. And away we go!

[jetsfansince7]

Some of these playoff teams may need to offload some of their more expensive players on the o line. But everyone in the league sees the value of that position. We are one of many searching.


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[GREENBEAN]

The problem with that is that if we only add 1 FA and 2 prospects, we are starting Edoga and Harrison. IIRC, those are the only 2 guys under contract, unless you are keeping Winters on board.  The rest of those slots have to be filled, with retreads or otherwise.

Not a bad point but If we resign Beachum and Lewis and sign a FA OL we will be ok with drafting two OL high. I’m not sure if Compton is a FA or not. I think he may be. I’d retain him and Qvale too. I think having the left side of the line as the starters from the end of the season is a good place to start while we watch the OL battle ensue. If we got my number one FA target, Jack Conklin (which may be hard with their exciting run over there) having Compton and a 2nd rd rookie fighting for the RG spot could be fun. Obviously we’d want the rook to be able to unseat Compton and even Harrison and Lewis which would relegate them to reserve roles. I like that group as the second string.

In truth I’d prefer 2 OL in FA and 3 OL in the draft but we could get away with less and have the makings of a very good OL. I just want some upper tier WR too so we may have to spread the wealth a bit.


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[GREENBEAN]

First round pick will be a shutdown CB!

I would puke.


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[#27TheDominator]

4 hours ago, Greenbloodblitz said:

Gunz Ablazin  should be the name of the new GNR album

Coming to a record store near you, April 11, 2045!

3 hours ago, BUM-KNEE said:

Well getting 3 good OL would substantially stiffen our situation as it stands. 

Adding retreads/projects after that is probably a given.

Right.  Thing is, your draft included "prospects"  That may just be what you call drafted players, or it could have meant guys that may become starters eventually.  This team needs starters ASAP and the retreads/projects had better be in place for a line with a floor of 2019 well before the draft.

1 hour ago, GREENBEAN said:

Not a bad point but If we resign Beachum and Lewis and sign a FA OL we will be ok with drafting two OL high. I’m not sure if Compton is a FA or not. I think he may be. I’d retain him and Qvale too. I think having the left side of the line as the starters from the end of the season is a good place to start while we watch the OL battle ensue. If we got my number one FA target, Jack Conklin (which may be hard with their exciting run over there) having Compton and a 2nd rd rookie fighting for the RG spot could be fun. Obviously we’d want the rook to be able to unseat Compton and even Harrison and Lewis which would relegate them to reserve roles. I like that group as the second string.

In truth I’d prefer 2 OL in FA and 3 OL in the draft but we could get away with less and have the makings of a very good OL. I just want some upper tier WR too so we may have to spread the wealth a bit.


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Pretty much where I sit.  Compton is a free agent.  They need to have these stiffs in place.  I get wanting to draft and upgrade, but they are so weak that they need to have at least moderate guys in place before the draft.  We can't sit on our asses and hope that Thomas, Biadasz and another top choice fall to us.  The idea of trading for picks is nice, but we probably won't even be able to do that until draft day, so you run the risk of missing out.

3 hours ago, Jetster said:

Here is where we find our #2 WR in free agency & take your pick. All of these guys will be value contracts. Here are your nominees & their current salaries in their last year of free agency. Everyone of these guys could be half of what Robbie Anderson signs for and I'll put them in the order I think they should be.

#1- Geronimo Allison (2.8 Mill), #2- Nelson Agholor (2.3 Mill), #3- Rashad Higgins (2 Mill),#4-  Demarcus Robinson (2 Mill) #5- Travis Benjamin (4.2 Mill)

Everyone of these guys would be a good fit at the #2 WR spot & come WAY CHEAPER than what Robbie & his agent are looking for. They also have all come from places with a franchise QB in place & I believe would love to be catching passes in NY from a young stud like Sam Darnold. I believe that the list of guys above is why Robbie Anderson was not offered a 2nd ridiculously high contract for a #2 WR. 

 

How cheap do you think those guys will be?  Geronimo Allison, Demarcus Robinson and Rashard Higgins were playing on their rookie deals or RFA tenders.  None was an UFA.  I am sure on some Browns board someone is posting that they should sign Anderson because he only made $2.8M and caught more than Higgins four balls in 11 games during 2019.  IIRC, Agholor was playing on the 5th year tender and made $9.3M not $2.3M.  Benjamin is coming off a 4/$24M contract.

I get that these guys are cheaper options, but they are cheaper because they have all been considerably worse and more inconsistent players.  LOL at #2 WR.  Demarcus Robinson's career numbers don't sniff Anderson's worst season.  Higgins had a nice 2018, but in 2019 he caught 36% of his targets for a total of 4/55.  That's your #2? Ouch.  They will be cheaper, but not the $10M per year that you are thinking, and they will be a significant downgrade.

[varjet]

I don't know what the Titans are going to do with Conklin, but they did not pick up his 5th year option and he did not have a great year last year.

They will need to pay Tannehill or someone else, and Taylor Lewan.  My guess is that their first round pick could play RT on that line.  

Teams are supposed to extend their Pick 8s before their 5th year, if not their 4th.  Conklin is going to auction.   My guess is that he performs better than 2018 but worse than 2019.  He also has a concussion history and did not play great in 2018.  

[Jetster]

1 hour ago, #27TheDominator said:

Coming to a record store near you, April 11, 2045!

Right.  Thing is, your draft included "prospects"  That may just be what you call drafted players, or it could have meant guys that may become starters eventually.  This team needs starters ASAP and the retreads/projects had better be in place for a line with a floor of 2019 well before the draft.

Pretty much where I sit.  Compton is a free agent.  They need to have these stiffs in place.  I get wanting to draft and upgrade, but they are so weak that they need to have at least moderate guys in place before the draft.  We can't sit on our asses and hope that Thomas, Biadasz and another top choice fall to us.  The idea of trading for picks is nice, but we probably won't even be able to do that until draft day, so you run the risk of missing out.

How cheap do you think those guys will be?  Geronimo Allison, Demarcus Robinson and Rashard Higgins were playing on their rookie deals or RFA tenders.  None was an UFA.  I am sure on some Browns board someone is posting that they should sign Anderson because he only made $2.8M and caught more than Higgins four balls in 11 games during 2019.  IIRC, Agholor was playing on the 5th year tender and made $9.3M not $2.3M.  Benjamin is coming off a 4/$24M contract.

I get that these guys are cheaper options, but they are cheaper because they have all been considerably worse and more inconsistent players.  LOL at #2 WR.  Demarcus Robinson's career numbers don't sniff Anderson's worst season.  Higgins had a nice 2018, but in 2019 he caught 36% of his targets for a total of 4/55.  That's your #2? Ouch.  They will be cheaper, but not the $10M per year that you are thinking, and they will be a significant downgrade.

Anderson was our #1 WR, of course he had more catches, he got most of the targets. We also had no TE for a large portion of the season. Yes, I know they'll make more but Andersons agent sees him as a #1 & wants #1 money. These others guys? They know they are 2s & 3s.

[#27TheDominator]

Just now, Jetster said:

Anderson was our #1 WR, of course he had more catches, he got most of the targets. We also had no TE for a large portion of the season. Yes, I know they'll make more but Andersons agent sees him as a #1 & wants #1 money. These others guys? They know they are 2s & 3s.

but they produce like 5s and 6s?  They make sense as guys to fill out your roster, but you don't go to war with any of them as your #2.  Maybe as a pre-draft placeholder, but if Joe Douglas heads into the draft with nothing but Rashard Higgins, Crowder and Vyncint Smith I will probably lose my sh*t. 

EDGE might be even worse.  Who do we currently have under contract?  Jordan Willis and Tarrell Basham?   I liked both guys in their respective draft, but I don't think we can rely on them.  Sign Copeland cheap and probably another lower priced vet, but upgrading in the draft should certainly be a priority.

[Long Island Leprechaun]

6 hours ago, New York Mick said:

Because he moved to NJ

LOL. He's going to set his hair on fire next.

[Jetster]

26 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

but they produce like 5s and 6s?  They make sense as guys to fill out your roster, but you don't go to war with any of them as your #2.  Maybe as a pre-draft placeholder, but if Joe Douglas heads into the draft with nothing but Rashard Higgins, Crowder and Vyncint Smith I will probably lose my sh*t. 

EDGE might be even worse.  Who do we currently have under contract?  Jordan Willis and Tarrell Basham?   I liked both guys in their respective draft, but I don't think we can rely on them.  Sign Copeland cheap and probably another lower priced vet, but upgrading in the draft should certainly be a priority.

I was talking about drafting Jerry Jeudy at 11 if he’s there. Jeudy- Agholor-Crowder-Herndon 

[#27TheDominator]

1 minute ago, Jetster said:

I was talking about drafting Jerry Jeudy at 11 if he’s there. Jeudy- Agholor-Crowder-Herndon 

And if he isn't there?  At that point you are starting Rashard Higgins on the outside, or maybe reaching for some other WR.  That is my point.

[UnknownJetFan]

9 hours ago, Jetster said:

Many as here don't want JD to come out firing in free agency? I say BS to that sh*t! We need at least 2 top free agent Olineman to rebuild the wall that Sam Darnold needs to operate behind. JDs job would have been easier if that idiot Macc fixed the center spot last year when 3 guys were available. I don't care if our entire draft is Olineman & skill players either. For 10 years we've been watching the most boring offense in football with a 170 Lb skinny azz WR as our scariest weapon. How about we start bringing in some WRs over 200 Lbs that can run & break tackles? How about some 1 cut RBs? I mean you watch these playoff games and it's amazing how bereft of talent our offense is. I'll be pissed if we come out of free agency without some lineman, the draft can't save this team. 

Structure contracts based on Tru & Bells contracts ending after next year. Offense, offense, and more offense this offseason and draft.

I agree, if you said this whole FA, any trades, and the draft netted us for the most part the whole Oline rebuilt including depth, and upgrades with weapons at WR, TE, and RB, I'd be fine trotting out Luvu as the starting Edge rusher since DC Williams would hold down the fort and our O would likely be so much more consistent the D would be in even much better shape both playing from ahead a lot of the time as well as not being on the field as much.

[BUM-KNEE]

3 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

Coming to a record store near you, April 11, 2045!

Right.  Thing is, your draft included "prospects"  That may just be what you call drafted players, or it could have meant guys that may become starters eventually.  This team needs starters ASAP and the retreads/projects had better be in place for a line with a floor of 2019 well before the draft.

Well I consider any drafted player a prospect, I guess I didnt use the correct terminology. 

I call any drafted player that wont be making an immediate impact/starting, a project.

 

[#27TheDominator]

20 minutes ago, BUM-KNEE said:

Well I consider any drafted player a prospect, I guess I didnt use the correct terminology. 

I call any drafted player that wont be making an immediate impact/starting, a project.

 

Nothing wrong with your terminology.  I was just pointing out that we need to use the same definition and I misunderstood.  All draft picks are prospects, but there is a big difference between who you get at 11 (say Thomas or Wirfs who you can count on to start) and whoever you get in the 4th round.  Unless you are lucky, those guys will fall into your "project" category.  We couldn't count on Shell to start as a rookie. 

[BUM-KNEE]

1 minute ago, #27TheDominator said:

Nothing wrong with your terminology.  I was just pointing out that we need to use the same definition and I misunderstood.  All draft picks are prospects, but there is a big difference between who you get at 11 (say Thomas or Wirfs who you can count on to start) and whoever you get in the 4th round.  Unless you are lucky, those guys will fall into your "project" category.  We couldn't count on Shell to start as a rookie. 

Yeah if we can land Wirfs it would be sweet, he could start in game one. That would be a stroke of luck if he was  there for us.

Wondering how much worse the project would fare than some our lineman. Heh

[Dunnie]

There are more holes on this team than there were in Blackburn, Lancashire. Albert Hall would explode.
This will not be a quick fix but a few good drafts could do it. Then the FA signings are meaningful. For now, just do one of the glaring needs like OT or ER or CB. Just don't do one of those tie up all the money Bell or Mosely deals
 

Or WR

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[SR24]

saw this on Twitter 

[Beerfish]

IF the top OTs are gone I could wince and take Okudah if he was there at 11.

CB is still a premium position and is far more valuable than DT, ILB, S

I would normally say you have to take a Wr if not Oline but there are a number of good WRs that should be there, 3rd/4th/5th  rounds.

[Jetster]

7 hours ago, Beerfish said:

IF the top OTs are gone I could wince and take Okudah if he was there at 11.

CB is still a premium position and is far more valuable than DT, ILB, S

I would normally say you have to take a Wr if not Oline but there are a number of good WRs that should be there, 3rd/4th/5th  rounds.

Guy was a stud in every game I saw him play. Strong, tough, quick. I'd have zero problem taking him if he landed at 11 but I'd put solid money ? that there is no way in hell Okudah lasts until 11. Depending on the QBs, he's top 5. 

[Sperm Edwards]

On 1/14/2020 at 11:47 AM, Untouchable said:

Jack Conklin and Joe Thuney 

Add those two and I don’t care if we don’t do anything else besides re-sign a few of our own guys like Jenkins, Beachum and Poole.

I’d be surprised if Beachum and Jenkins aren’t solidly 50-100% higher to re-sign than most think they’ll be. 

[#27TheDominator]

25 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I’d be surprised if Beachum and Jenkins aren’t solidly 50-100% higher to re-sign than most think they’ll be. 

I wonder about Winters.  He is scheduled to make $7M.  He hasn't earned that contract, but he has started forthe entire thing.  The overthecap.com valuation tool has his 2019 value at $900k.  They have Carpenter at $960K and he signed a 4/$21M deal with $7M in guarantees.  I've seen posts expecting us to have the chance to sign  him back for the vet min, but I bet he'll get a deal similar to Carpenter's. 

[Sperm Edwards]

2 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

I wonder about Winters.  He is scheduled to make $7M.  He hasn't earned that contract, but he has started forthe entire thing.  The overthecap.com valuation tool has his 2019 value at $900k.  They have Carpenter at $960K and he signed a 4/$21M deal with $7M in guarantees.  I've seen posts expecting us to have the chance to sign  him back for the vet min, but I bet he'll get a deal similar to Carpenter's. 

He could also take a pay cut in exchange for a guaranteed 2020 season. Still becomes a UFA in 2021, and allows for a bounce-back 2020 season to get his dollars back up. I doubt he'd get $7MM per as a FA right now, but if he has a mere average season in 2020 he could parlay that into a $10MM/year contract in 2021 that he has no chance of seeing in 2 months. 

As a potential side benefit, the Jets then get to lose him as a UFA instead of as a roster cut.

[#27TheDominator]

1 minute ago, Sperm Edwards said:

He could also take a pay cut in exchange for a guaranteed 2020 season. Still becomes a UFA in 2021, and allows for a bounce-back 2020 season to get his dollars back up. I doubt he'd get $7MM per as a FA right now, but if he has a mere average season in 2020 he could parlay that into a $10MM/year contract in 2021 that he has no chance of seeing in 2 months. 

As a potential side benefit, the Jets then get to lose him as a UFA instead of as a roster cut.

Yeah.  I see him getting less money in 2020, but I imagine he would see a guarantee of more than $7M over the course of his deal. 

[Sperm Edwards]

2 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Yeah.  I see him getting less money in 2020, but I imagine he would see a guarantee of more than $7M over the course of his deal. 

I agree, but getting $4MM guaranteed this year, followed by his FA walking papers in 2021, would yield the greater amount (unless he suffers a major, career-altering injury in 2020). 

I think $7MM is about as much total guarantee as he'd see. I don't think it's impossible, since many teams need OL help. But I don't think he'd get a 9-figure guarantee as a FA again, absent proving a bounce-back season from both health and performance standpoints. 

Honestly if someone was willing to fork over more than that as a guarantee then Winters would have at least some trade value, even it was only a day 3 pick. 

[shuler82]

On 1/14/2020 at 9:38 AM, Jetster said:

Under the radar free agents? Is that even a thing? After we cut Winters, THAT IS AN UNDER THE RADAR SIGNING by another team? F*ck that! We need some studs & because Macc ignored the oline we have to pay up on a couple of guys. Go back & look at how much money we had in the oline in 2009/2010. Dbrick-Fanaca-Mangold- Moore- Woody.

That was not a cheap oline based on the overall salary cap.

Because throwing money around always works out so well. Prepare to be disappointed.  Although there’s no doubt Douglas knows the OL is the #1 concern,  I see more lunch pail type guys being brought in than 2 or 3 big money FAs.

[joewilly12]

Come out blazing we don't need or want to pick from the scrap heap after all other teams sign the top tier players.