Two Year Plan

[BettyBoop]

Guessing/hoping who Douglas will draft in 2020 without first guessing/hoping who he will sign in free agency AND how that will impact 2021 is a foolish task.  Here is a plausible two year plan assumptions (re: guesses):

• Between carryover from 2019, increase in the cap and after cuts (Roberts, Johnson (I wish that was Chris Johnson), Winters and Williamson, among others) the Jets should have $92mm in cap space. 
• After re-signing some of his own free agents (Poole, Beachum, Adams, Hewitt, Jenkins, Lewis, D. Thomas) that number should be reduced to $60mm.
• If I were Douglas I would aggressively try to restructure Mosely and Bell trying to push some $$ into 2021.  Let's assume he's not successful at doing that so no change to the $60mm.
• With the $60mm I would target: 
•       Byron Jones, CB
•       Joe Thuney, G
•       Yannick Ngakoue, OLB
•       Devin Funchess, WR (1 year deal)
•       Randall Cobb, WR
• The draft would look like this:
•       1st Round:  OT,  Between Andrew Thomas, Wirfs, and Mechti Becton
•       2nd Round: WR,  Garbriel Davis
•       3rd Round:  C, Lloyd Cushenberry
•       3rd Round: G/C, Calvin Throckmorten
•       4th Round; CB

With the exception of Ngakoue there aren't any sexy names on this list.  Good.  If the free agency signings and draft do indeed shore up the OL, 2021 will focus on finding a young running back, #1 corner and of course more depth.  A lot of money will come off the books in 2021 so the resources will be there to succeed.    

[Stark]

Why in the world would you off Devin Funchess?

Cobb I could see if we didn't have Crowder

[Beerfish]

A big fat no to restructuring and deferring money commitments into the future.

Funchess?  Blech

I am okay with the draft.

[Apache 51]

I'm thinking more like a 3 to 4 year plan, with Darnold hitting full stride.

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, Apache 51 said:

I'm thinking more like a 3 to 4 year plan, with Darnold hitting full stride.

In less than 3 years we'll need to make our decision on whether to pay Darnold.   There's no guarantee he'll part of our plans by then.  We'll need to know for sure within 2 years, or get ready to start over with a new QB.   

[Integrity28]

I'd use all of the cap space to ensure we're not looking at another 2+ year plan.

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

I'd use all of the cap space to ensure we're not looking at another 2+ year plan.

Only if we spend on quality players at premium positions.   No more bad contracts with the excuse that we "had to spend it".  And a core consisting of a bunch of mercenaries pretty much never works out in the NFL.  

I also wouldn't mind a compensatory pick for letting Robby walk.  

[sec101row23]

51 minutes ago, BettyBoop said:

Guessing/hoping who Douglas will draft in 2020 without first guessing/hoping who he will sign in free agency AND how that will impact 2021 is a foolish task.  Here is a plausible two year plan assumptions (re: guesses):

• Between carryover from 2019, increase in the cap and after cuts (Roberts, Johnson (I wish that was Chris Johnson), Winters and Williamson, among others) the Jets should have $92mm in cap space. 
• After re-signing some of his own free agents (Poole, Beachum, Adams, Hewitt, Jenkins, Lewis, D. Thomas) that number should be reduced to $60mm.
• If I were Douglas I would aggressively try to restructure Mosely and Bell trying to push some $$ into 2021.  Let's assume he's not successful at doing that so no change to the $60mm.
• With the $60mm I would target: 
•       Byron Jones, CB
•       Joe Thuney, G
•       Yannick Ngakoue, OLB
•       Devin Funchess, WR (1 year deal)
•       Randall Cobb, WR
• The draft would look like this:
•       1st Round:  OT,  Between Andrew Thomas, Wirfs, and Mechti Becton
•       2nd Round: WR,  Garbriel Davis
•       3rd Round:  C, Lloyd Cushenberry
•       3rd Round: G/C, Calvin Throckmorten
•       4th Round; CB

With the exception of Ngakoue there aren't any sexy names on this list.  Good.  If the free agency signings and draft do indeed shore up the OL, 2021 will focus on finding a young running back, #1 corner and of course more depth.  A lot of money will come off the books in 2021 so the resources will be there to succeed.    

So re-signing all those players you listed there is only going to cost $32 million against the cap??  Lol...

 

This is some high level fantasy stuff.  

[section314]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

In less than 3 years we'll need to make our decision on whether to pay Darnold.   There's no guarantee he'll part of our plans by then.  We'll need to know for sure within 2 years, or get ready to start over with a new QB.   

Great point. I think it was Bill Walsh who had the 25 game rule on young QB's, that you know after that amount if he is the "guy" or not. We are pretty much there now with Sam, and I have to say, it's close. He has had games where you say we're all set, and then has a few that would make Geno Smith blush. That's why JD has to overhaul this offense with talent, so you can really make an honest evaluation of Sam.

[Jetsfan80]

7 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

So re-signing all those players you listed there is only going to cost $32 million against the cap??  Lol...

 

This is some high level fantasy stuff.  

 

He/she is also incorrect on how much cap space we'll have after letting go of Williamson, Winters, Roberts and Trumaine Johnson.  Per what I can tell from overthecap.com, we'd have $73.8M in cap space after cutting those 4.  Not $92M.  

BettyBoop says he/she would cut "others" too along with those 4.  I don't see any realistic route to getting to $92M in space.  In the unlikely event we could find a trade partner for Le'Veon, we'd save $9.5M.  Enunwa would save us $2.4M.  That gets us up to $85.7M.  No one else we would realistically cut would save us more than $1-2M apiece.  

[Jetsfan80]

8 minutes ago, section314 said:

Great point. I think it was Bill Walsh who had the 25 game rule on young QB's, that you know after that amount if he is the "guy" or not. We are pretty much there now with Sam, and I have to say, it's close. He has had games where you say we're all set, and then has a few that would make Geno Smith blush. That's why JD has to overhaul this offense with talent, so you can really make an honest evaluation of Sam.

And that was pretty much what the scouting report/numbers said Sam would be coming out of the school.  In some ways highly impressive.  In others incredibly frustrating.

Personally, I think we can win with Sam.  He has a fairly high ceiling, so he has the capability of having a terrific postseason or 2.  The problem is his play might prevent us from GETTING to the playoffs some of the time.  

Ultimately, giving him a 2nd contract likely wouldn't bother me if/when the time comes.  But we should not be closed off to the idea of bringing in some new QB's (with middle round draft picks, not 1st/2nd rounders) right up until we have to make that decision.  

[sec101row23]

21 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And that was pretty much what the scouting report/numbers said Sam would be coming out of the school.  In some ways highly impressive.  In others incredibly frustrating.

Personally, I think we can win with Sam.  He has a fairly high ceiling, so he has the capability of having a terrific postseason or 2.  The problem is his play might prevent us from GETTING to the playoffs some of the time.  

Ultimately, giving him a 2nd contract likely wouldn't bother me if/when the time comes.  But we should not be closed off to the idea of bringing in some new QB's (with middle round draft picks, not 1st/2nd rounders) right up until we have to make that decision.  

You also have to at some point assemble a core group of players here that will be under contract for a few years together to build some consistency.   Every year it’s been the same thing around here, few holdovers from the previous season with question marks at several important positions.  It’s literally rebuilding every year.   Look at the good teams, Baltimore has all of their offensive starters under contract for next year.  Look at how many 49ers are under contract next year.  Good teams aren’t constantly filling the holes that Jets seem to have year in and year out.  The Jets have done nothing but get yearly stop-gap rentals at critical positions.  It gets old after a while.  

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, sec101row23 said:

You also have to at some point assemble a core group of players here that will be under contract for a few years together to build some consistency.   Every year it’s been the same thing around here, few holdovers from the previous season with question marks at several important positions.  It’s literally rebuilding every year.   Look at the good teams, Baltimore has all of their offensive starters under contract for next year.  Look at how many 49ers are under contract next year.  Good teams aren’t constantly filling the holes that Jets seem to have year in and year out.  The Jets have done nothing but get yearly stop-gap rentals at critical positions.  It gets old after a while.  

 

And all that is directly related to poor drafting.  The best way to build a core?  Young, cheap talent under 4/5 year rookie deals.  

Draft poorly and you constantly have holes you need to fill with stopgaps and band-aids.  

[SR24]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Only if we spend on quality players at premium positions.   No more bad contracts with the excuse that we "had to spend it".  And a core consisting of a bunch of mercenaries pretty much never works out in the NFL.  

I also wouldn't mind a compensatory pick for letting Robby walk.  

Conklin,Glasglow and DJ Humphries Should all get a long look in free agency. 25,27 and 27 and they can all play. 

[Apache 51]

41 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

In less than 3 years we'll need to make our decision on whether to pay Darnold.   There's no guarantee he'll part of our plans by then.  We'll need to know for sure within 2 years, or get ready to start over with a new QB.   

Please, no.

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

And all that is directly related to poor drafting.  The best way to build a core?  Young, cheap talent under 4/5 year rookie deals.  

Draft poorly and you constantly have holes you need to fill with stopgaps and band-aids.  

 

Not to mention there's a sense of "pride" being part of the team that drafted you.  A locker room suffers when it has too many mercenaries (who were left unsigned by their prior teams for a reason) and not enough homegrown guys.  

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, Apache 51 said:

Please, no.

Well then he'd better play well and prove he's the guy.  I don't want to start over either.  I want him to make it so that it's clear and obvious he's the guy and deserves to get paid.  

[jgb]

Not hating but why would we cut Williamson?

maybe restructure?

[JetsFanShawn]

1 hour ago, BettyBoop said:

Guessing/hoping who Douglas will draft in 2020 without first guessing/hoping who he will sign in free agency AND how that will impact 2021 is a foolish task.  Here is a plausible two year plan assumptions (re: guesses):

• Between carryover from 2019, increase in the cap and after cuts (Roberts, Johnson (I wish that was Chris Johnson), Winters and Williamson, among others) the Jets should have $92mm in cap space. 
• After re-signing some of his own free agents (Poole, Beachum, Adams, Hewitt, Jenkins, Lewis, D. Thomas) that number should be reduced to $60mm.
• If I were Douglas I would aggressively try to restructure Mosely and Bell trying to push some $$ into 2021.  Let's assume he's not successful at doing that so no change to the $60mm.
• With the $60mm I would target: 
•       Byron Jones, CB
•       Joe Thuney, G
•       Yannick Ngakoue, OLB
•       Devin Funchess, WR (1 year deal)
•       Randall Cobb, WR
• The draft would look like this:
•       1st Round:  OT,  Between Andrew Thomas, Wirfs, and Mechti Becton
•       2nd Round: WR,  Garbriel Davis
•       3rd Round:  C, Lloyd Cushenberry
•       3rd Round: G/C, Calvin Throckmorten
•       4th Round; CB

With the exception of Ngakoue there aren't any sexy names on this list.  Good.  If the free agency signings and draft do indeed shore up the OL, 2021 will focus on finding a young running back, #1 corner and of course more depth.  A lot of money will come off the books in 2021 so the resources will be there to succeed.    

how about them getting De''Thomas hes quick speedey  out the back feld hits the hole

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, BettyBoop said:

Guessing/hoping who Douglas will draft in 2020 without first guessing/hoping who he will sign in free agency AND how that will impact 2021 is a foolish task.  Here is a plausible two year plan assumptions (re: guesses):

• Between carryover from 2019, increase in the cap and after cuts (Roberts, Johnson (I wish that was Chris Johnson), Winters and Williamson, among others) the Jets should have $92mm in cap space. 
• After re-signing some of his own free agents (Poole, Beachum, Adams, Hewitt, Jenkins, Lewis, D. Thomas) that number should be reduced to $60mm.
• If I were Douglas I would aggressively try to restructure Mosely and Bell trying to push some $$ into 2021.  Let's assume he's not successful at doing that so no change to the $60mm.
• With the $60mm I would target: 
•       Byron Jones, CB
•       Joe Thuney, G
•       Yannick Ngakoue, OLB
•       Devin Funchess, WR (1 year deal)
•       Randall Cobb, WR
• The draft would look like this:
•       1st Round:  OT,  Between Andrew Thomas, Wirfs, and Mechti Becton
•       2nd Round: WR,  Garbriel Davis
•       3rd Round:  C, Lloyd Cushenberry
•       3rd Round: G/C, Calvin Throckmorten
•       4th Round; CB

With the exception of Ngakoue there aren't any sexy names on this list.  Good.  If the free agency signings and draft do indeed shore up the OL, 2021 will focus on finding a young running back, #1 corner and of course more depth.  A lot of money will come off the books in 2021 so the resources will be there to succeed.    

As was noted by someone else above, what do you think it would cost to extend each of these players (individually, not adding up the group)?

My guesses are that these guys will be (based on demands many teams have for these same position starters):

• Beachum $12MM (he's a healthy, 30 year-old veteran at a high-demand/low-supply left tackle position; we're not getting him "on the cheap" even before a draft with some good LT prospects). Wouldn't shock me if he even got a little more than this on a per year basis, even if he doesn't get 2 years fully guaranteed as a tradeoff.
• Poole $5MM (I don't know; maybe $3MM maybe $8MM. What I do know is inflation makes everyone's dollars go up unless they're older players winding down their careers).
• Adams isn't a free agent in 2020, and won't be one until 2022 when he can also be franchise tagged; but extending him now - which then makes him untrade-able no matter what offer we get after that - I'd guess would add some $4MM to his current $7MM cap number (~$25MM initial signing bonus - ? - divided by a 6, on a 4 year extension that lasts through 2025).
• Jenkins $10MM (he's an edge rusher coming off 8 and 7 sack seasons; someone will pony up at least that much, and it'd be unsurprising to see that eclipsed by a couple million more)
• Lewis at least $6MM (harder to predict, but he's a starting guard. Don't go by his 2019 cap number, since that was the final year of his rookie contract)
• Hewitt ??? honestly I have no idea what his market price is as a UFA. He's meh, but he started the whole year without being the culprit on 10 plays/game every week. Just to keep it closer to what you think, call it $3MM. Could be $1-2MM more, could be $1-2MM less.
• DT $5MM (guessing plus or minus a million) -- at age 32 with a history of injury and declined play from his prime, he's suited for 1 (max 2) year contracts from here on out. Certainly not more than 1 year guaranteed at a time. He showed he's recovered from his Achilles injury, and can still play, but he also showed he doesn't have the wheels he once had, probably even without that injury. 

Anyway using the above, I'm at a rough total of $45-50MM, or 50% higher than your estimate. Very doubtful I'm dead-on for each one, but I think overall it'd be close. Sure we could structure a couple of them - Beachum and Jenkins in particular - so they're a little lighter in 2020, but until a new CBA goes into effect we can't just defer to later years with league minimum salaries in year 1 like we used to be able to. 

[section314]

34 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

You also have to at some point assemble a core group of players here that will be under contract for a few years together to build some consistency.   Every year it’s been the same thing around here, few holdovers from the previous season with question marks at several important positions.  It’s literally rebuilding every year.   Look at the good teams, Baltimore has all of their offensive starters under contract for next year.  Look at how many 49ers are under contract next year.  Good teams aren’t constantly filling the holes that Jets seem to have year in and year out.  The Jets have done nothing but get yearly stop-gap rentals at critical positions.  It gets old after a while.  

Yes it does.....going into 41st year of season tickets.?

[Jetsfan80]

12 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Anyway using the above, I'm at a rough total of $45-50MM, or 50% higher than your estimate. 

So if I'm correct in saying that cutting the quartet of Winters, Trumaine, Roberts and Williamson would put us at $73.8M in cap space, after re-signing our own on that list, we'd only have about $29-$34M left in cap space for signing free agents and our draft picks.  Nowhere close to the $60M BettyBoop estimates.

[Matt39]

perpetual 5 year plan

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, Matt39 said:

perpetual 5 year plan

 

 

The last good/humorous Adam Sandler movie ever made.

[nico002]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

In less than 3 years we'll need to make our decision on whether to pay Darnold.   There's no guarantee he'll part of our plans by then.  We'll need to know for sure within 2 years, or get ready to start over with a new QB.   

Not true. If we aren’t willing to give him a big contract- no one will. Just because he’s a FA doesn’t mean he will be paid a kings ransom. 

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, nico002 said:

Not true. If we aren’t willing to give him a big contract- no one will. Just because he’s a FA doesn’t mean he will be paid a kings ransom. 

Disagreed.  All it takes is one team out there thinking he can be a starting QB in the league.  

If what you're saying were truly the case, no team would ever sign their borderline franchise QB to an expensive new contract.  Why not just let him test the market, give him a transition tag that they'd be able to match, and see if they can sign him to a much cheaper 2nd contract?

[Integrity28]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Only if we spend on quality players at premium positions.   No more bad contracts with the excuse that we "had to spend it".  And a core consisting of a bunch of mercenaries pretty much never works out in the NFL.  

I also wouldn't mind a compensatory pick for letting Robby walk.  

No doofus. I mean I’d spend $60 mil just to avoid any a$$hole that comes in touting a multi-year plan. It’s a sham. Every year is a year for rebuilding. Any idiot that signs on for a situation where the results aren’t promised for 2+ years should be but kicked to infinity.

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

No doofus. I mean I’d spend $60 mil just to avoid any a$$hole that comes in touting a multi-year plan. It’s a sham. Every year is a year for rebuilding. Any idiot that signs on for a situation where the results aren’t promised for 2+ years should be but kicked to infinity.

I mean sure, there's no reason it SHOULD take longer than 2 years to rebuild.  But when you're a team lacking any talent at the premium positions other than maybe QB, it very well can take 3 drafts before you have that young core built.  

It's very possible to go from horrible to the playoffs in 1-2 seasons.  But I don't think its possible to go from horrible to Super Bowl contention in that span.  And that's a very important distinction.  

[Patriot Killa]

1 hour ago, sec101row23 said:

So re-signing all those players you listed there is only going to cost $32 million against the cap??  Lol...

 

This is some high level fantasy stuff.  

Not to mention the possibility of Becton at 11. Becton at 11 would make me sick. He’s late first/2nd round prospect ...

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I mean sure, there's no reason it SHOULD take longer than 2 years to rebuild.  But when you're a team lacking any talent at the premium positions other than maybe QB, it very well can take 3 drafts before you have that young core built.  

It's very possible to go from horrible to the playoffs in 1-2 seasons.  But I don't think its possible to go from horrible to Super Bowl contention in that span.  And that's a very important distinction.  

Here's the thing, though. We can't carry over 75% of the salary cap annually for the next 2-3 years while we hope 2020's draft picks mature, if they don't bust outright. Meanwhile the veteran FAs signed/re-signed in 2020 will have their guaranteed seasons expire after 1-2 years depending on the player (unless they're ultra-elite and in a narrow age range, where they get 3 years, but there aren't too many non-QBs getting deals like that). It prevents the need to go all in on draftees who are yet undeserving, never mind simply handing starting jobs to rookies because we have no serious competition for their positions. I thought we hated that. Now we don't anymore?

In the meantime we don't have to wait - as an example we've gone over very recently - for multiple WRs, who won't have been drafted until after this free agency period, to fully mature into reliable starters. There's less than a 50/50 chance of a 1st-2nd round rookie being extremely productive as a rookie. Most of the non-tragedies are in the 600 yard range in year 1, assuming they sustain no injuries. Very few reach 1000 yards right away, when you consider how many are actually drafted. And that's just to get one full time starter with that production. We need two of them. 

I agree it's not an ideal pipeline situation already set up, but the team is in the situation it's in, not the position we wish it was in. I'd add this is how a veteran-to-draftee pipeline is created properly, with younger FAs we're not tied to for 3 years, nor who'll be trash after just 1 due to aging. 

[peekskill68]

I'd like to see JD resign Jenkins.  He may not be an elite Edge but sometimes you have to reward your better players with a 2nd contract.  And I don't fear he's going to pull a "Wilkerson" before the ink is dry...

[CTM]

3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Only if we spend on quality players at premium positions.   No more bad contracts with the excuse that we "had to spend it".  And a core consisting of a bunch of mercenaries pretty much never works out in the NFL.  

I also wouldn't mind a compensatory pick for letting Robby walk.  

We need to find football players who love the game like you love fapping

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

 never mind simply handing starting jobs to rookies because we have no serious competition for their positions. I thought we hated that. Now we don't anymore?

If there are no better options, its fine to insert rookies into a "trial by fire" scenario.

I'm not advocating that though.  I just think we need to target several "lower tier" free agents rather than 1-2 top-end FA's.  

[CTM]

2 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

No doofus. I mean I’d spend $60 mil just to avoid any a$$hole that comes in touting a multi-year plan. It’s a sham. Every year is a year for rebuilding. Any idiot that signs on for a situation where the results aren’t promised for 2+ years should be but kicked to infinity.

^ big hairy proponent of the competitive rebuild 

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

4 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

 

The last good/humorous Adam Sandler movie ever made.

you didn't like YOU DON'T MESS WITH THE ZOHAN