Who's the #1 target in 2020 free agency for the Jets?

[Hael]

13 hours ago, Wonderboy said:

One? We need to replace the ENTIRE line. All those guys are depth pieces that played on the OL this year. I’d keep Lewis and  Harrison and be done with Winters, Shell and Beachum. We have to draft 2 OL and sign at least 3 OL. We just can’t put this group back on the field again.

We have cap room for about two  10 million dollar+ big ticket FAs if we cut most of the players we can cut.  That's across the entire team.  You could sign 2 on the OL, but then you are looking at the draft for a cb1,edge, backup qb, wr1 etc

Resigning Beachum probably saves us a little bit relative to the usual going rate for starting OTs, so I see him coming back.  So now theres room for one more big ticket FA signing on the OL.  So it's the choice I was mentioning.  The rest of the signings on the OT won't be day 1-3 guys and we will likely need to draft multiple players as well.  In fact its possible (and maybe even necessary) to not sign *any* big ticket OL players.  That's probably the prudent move, even though it kinda dooms us for the next season.

The choice is really a big gamble.  We can't afford to miss on another high priced FA like we have these past few years so I suspect they're going to go for sure value and will skip the injury risks.

[RichardTodd27]

On 1/21/2020 at 9:56 AM, Integrity28 said:

Conklin and Scherff. Means we can do whatever we want at #11 based on who falls. 

Agree 100%. I would break the bank for both Conklin and Scherff. Two young offensive linemen that are top 10 in their respective positions.

Then I'd use 2 of our high draft picks on a LT and C. This is a quick way to turn our offense around.

Histrorically, investing in the offensive line always provides dividends. 

[#27TheDominator]

5 minutes ago, RichardTodd27 said:

Agree 100%. I would break the bank for both Conklin and Scherff. Two young offensive linemen that are top 10 in their respective positions.

Then I'd use 2 of our high draft picks on a LT and C. This is a quick way to turn our offense around.

Histrorically, investing in the offensive line always provides dividends. 

I don't see it happening.  I might be wrong, but I see Conklin and Scherff as too bigger maulers.  I think we may be looking at leaner quicker guys, but I can't be sure.   I wonder with Callahan going to the Browns if he will try to woo Scherff.  I am also not so sure that I see Conklin as a top 10 tackle.  Maybe if you restrict it to the right side, but I don't keep track that much.

[bla bla bla]

6 hours ago, THE BARON said:

I think a new CBA should get rid of the franchise tag.  More trouble than it is worth.  If I was Castonzo and the Jets offered me $$$$$ but the Colts franchised me, I'd sit down for a year...

Eh as an OL I'd play on the tag, too much money to pass up at this stage in his career

[Philc1]

On 1/21/2020 at 9:56 AM, Integrity28 said:

Conklin and Scherff. Means we can do whatever we want at #11 based on who falls. 

[BornJetsFan1983]

How About Antonio brown??

 

Just kidding he will be in jail

[jetstream23]

On 1/21/2020 at 7:56 AM, Integrity28 said:

Conklin and Scherff. Means we can do whatever we want at #11 based on who falls. 

 

I'm thinking that some mix of Beachum, Lewis, Harrison and Shell (and Edoga as he's still under contract going into Year 2) should be brought back even if only for the illusion of having an OLine as we head into FA and the Draft.

Could something like a Mekhi Becton (R), Alex Lewis, Cesar Ruiz (R), Brandon Scherff (FA), Brandon Shell/Chuma Edoga work for 2020?  In this scenario Beachum, Harrison and either Shell/Edoga move to backup.

What if it's Conklin OR Scherff (not "and")?  If you were forced to holdover 3 Jets offensive linemen as starters and fill the other two spots with a FA and a Drafted player, who would you pick?

[pdxgreen]

Probably a bunch of mid level FA's we aren't even thinking about.

[Integrity28]

6 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

 

I'm thinking that some mix of Beachum, Lewis, Harrison and Shell (and Edoga as he's still under contract going into Year 2) should be brought back even if only for the illusion of having an OLine as we head into FA and the Draft.

Could something like a Mekhi Becton (R), Alex Lewis, Cesar Ruiz (R), Brandon Scherff (FA), Brandon Shell/Chuma Edoga work for 2020?  In this scenario Beachum, Harrison and either Shell/Edoga move to backup.

What if it's Conklin OR Scherff (not "and")?  If you were forced to holdover 3 Jets offensive linemen as starters and fill the other two spots with a FA and a Drafted player, who would you pick?

I’m of the belief that the center of the line is just as important as the blind side now. Teams have figured out how to prevent QBs from climbing the pocket. With Sam, it may be more valuable to get stout at guard and center, but still... a boy can dream.

[PepPep]

11 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

 

I'm thinking that some mix of Beachum, Lewis, Harrison and Shell (and Edoga as he's still under contract going into Year 2) should be brought back even if only for the illusion of having an OLine as we head into FA and the Draft.

Could something like a Mekhi Becton (R), Alex Lewis, Cesar Ruiz (R), Brandon Scherff (FA), Brandon Shell/Chuma Edoga work for 2020?  In this scenario Beachum, Harrison and either Shell/Edoga move to backup.

What if it's Conklin OR Scherff (not "and")?  If you were forced to holdover 3 Jets offensive linemen as starters and fill the other two spots with a FA and a Drafted player, who would you pick?

I think its more realistic that Beachum starts at LT and the Rookie competes but would AT BEST starts at RT not LT. Especially Becton, who is considered more raw than some of the other top OT prospects. I would hand Harrison the starting job and let Ruiz compete behind him. He deserves it. I would let Shell walk (Edoga and Becton- or rookie LT- will compete for the starting RT spot) and I would sign 2 OG FAs and DRAFT an OG. One of those OG FAs could be A.Lewis, but one of them needs to be a legit starter. Scherff, great, if thats what the Jets want to do. Glasgow, I'd be happy with that too. Thuney, sure. Whatever they feel is good value and fits the system. As long as he is young and will be a part of the future. The rookie OG can battle it out with A.Lewis for the other OG spot. 

Beachum, A.Lewis/Rookie, Harrison, FA OG, Rookie LT/Edoga

Sounds weak? Not if we sign Scherff and have a good draft.

Beachum, Ben Bredeson, Harrison, Scherff, Wirfs: That is a much improved O-line, especially in the run game. Both rookies should be very much capable of starting.   

[playtowinthegame]

Free Agent Profile: Brandon Scherff

We begin running through potential free agent targets for the Jets, starting things off with one of the headliners of the offensive line market — right guard Brandon Scherff.

Born: December 26, 1991 (Age: 28.1)

Hometown: Denison, Iowa

High School: Denison (IA)

College: Iowa

Draft: R1, #5 overall by Washington Redskins in 2015

2019 Cap Hit: $12.5M (5th-year option) – #3 among guards

Spotrac Market Value: $12.4M – Would rank #4 in average annual value among guards

---

Scherff has consistently posted strong grades in both facets at Pro Football Focus. Seen below are his career PFF ranks amongst guards with at least 500 snaps.

• 2019 (out of 67): 26th pass, 5th run, 7th overall
• 2018 (out of 65): 10th pass, 21st run, 15th overall
• 2017 (out of 68): 31st pass, 4th run, 6th overall
• 2016 (out of 66): 32nd pass, 15th run, 20th overall
• 2015 (out of 70): 41st pass, 23rd run, 25th overall

Scherff has gradually improved into one of the best pass-protecting guards over his tenure in Washington. In spite of his average-ish pass-blocking grades, he has allowed low pressure numbers on a consistent basis, getting better each season. Seen below are his career ranks in pass-blocking efficiency (per-snap pressure rate allowed with greater weight to sacks) amongst guards with at least 200 pass-blocking snaps.

• 2019 (out of 76): 4th (one pressure per 36.3 pass-blocking snaps)
• 2018 (out of 74): 11th (one pressure per 31.2 pass-blocking snaps)
• 2017 (out of 76): 33rd (one pressure per 23.0 pass-blocking snaps)
• 2016 (out of 74): 38th (one pressure per 18.9 pass-blocking snaps)
• 2015 (out of 83): 48th( one pressure per 16.3 pass-blocking snaps)

Scherff had trouble with penalties in 2019, committing nine over just 643 snaps (11 games). However, he was excellent at avoiding penalties in his third and fourth seasons, committing just two in each season over a combined 1,373 snaps (22 games).

Injuries are the main concern with Scherff. After starting all 33 possible regular season and playoff games over his first two seasons, Scherff has played in just 33 of 48 (68.8 percent) possible games over his past three seasons. He was placed on injured reserve with a torn pec in 2018, and then hit I.R. again in 2019 with elbow and shoulder injuries.

Scherff’s bread-and-butter is brute force in the run game — something the Jets have desperately lacked over the past couple of seasons. Watch here as Scherff (right guard, #75) tosses the three-technique defensive tackle to the inside, clearing a lane for Adrian Peterson to pick up a healthy five yards.

If Hale Hentges (tight end, #88) executed his block better, that run probably would have gone much further (TE blocking matters!). Nevertheless, a dominant block by Scherff paves the way for a solid pickup on first down. The Jets simply do not have anybody that creates some of that push like Scherff does in the above play. That is the primary reason they struggled so badly to produce big running plays. Gaping holes were never there for the runners to shoot through since there was not a difference-maker on the interior. Scherff is that guy. He opens up those truck-sized lanes on a consistent basis.

On this play, Scherff shows off some mobility. He does a good job holding the three-technique to the inside until the center can get there, then hits the second level and controls the linebacker.

Should the Jets pursue?

If Scherff shakes free of Washington and hits the open market, then YES, YES, YES. The Jets need to be all over him. This team is facing a five-position rebuild on the offensive line, currently lacking a single reliable piece on a unit that makes up nearly half of the offense. What better way to kickstart the rebuild then by adding one of the league’s best guards in his prime?

Due to recurring injury issues over the past three seasons, Scherff would be a legitimate gamble at the price tag he will demand, but the Jets are not in a place where they can be picky on the offensive line. They are in dire need of some reliability in front of Sam Darnold before his rookie contract runs out. While Joe Douglas will likely add a large influx of young talent through the draft, the 2020 offense will find itself in rough waters if it is without at least two solid veteran starters to hold the fort down.

Scherff could very well bust, but chasing him is worth a shot for this particular franchise. He is a great player at the team’s greatest position of need. Give him your best offer.

[playtowinthegame]

Free Agent Profile: Jack Conklin

A couple days ago, I kicked off the free agent profile series with one of the top names on the offensive line market — Redskins right guard Brandon Scherff. Today, we stay along the offensive line, kicking it to the outside with Titans right tackle Jack Conklin.

After a season in which their quarterback was pressured on the highest percentage of dropbacks (41.6%) and their lead back averaged the fewest yards before contact per attempt (1.2), offensive line is the top priority for the Jets this offseason. The team will certainly be emphasizing the position heavily in the draft, but picking up a couple of starters through free agency or trade is essential to hold the balance between future and present.

Let’s take a look at what Conklin brings to the table.

---

Born: August 17, 1994 (Age: 25.5)

Hometown: Plainwell, Michigan

High School: Plainwell (MI)

College: Michigan State

Draft: R1, 8th overall by Tennessee Titans in 2016

2019 Cap Hit: $5.0M (4th year of rookie contract) — #13 among right tackles

Spotrac Market Value: $15.0M — would rank #2 among right tackles

Conklin was named a First-Team All-Pro in his 2016 rookie season, joining Zack Martin as the only two offensive linemen in the Super Bowl era (since 1966) to earn that distinction in their first season. Quenton Nelson has joined the exclusive club in 2018.

Conklin came right in and helped the Titans make substantial strides on the ground. In 2016, Tennessee ranked third in rushing yards per game (136.7), fourth in yards per rush attempt (4.6), and eighth in rush offense DVOA, substantial leaps from 25th, 20th, and 29th in those respective categories the prior season.

Save for an injury-marred 2018 season, Conklin has consistently graded well at Pro Football Focus. Below are his grades among tackles with at least 450 snaps.

• 2019 (out of 71): 34th pass, 5th run, 12th overall
• 2018 (out of 67): 46th pass, 27th run, 41st overall
• 2017 (out of 68): 31st pass, 19th run, 29th overall
• 2016 (out of 65): 14th pass, 18th run, 16th overall

Conklin’s track record of durability is solid overall, but there have been some red flags. He started all 53 possible regular season and playoff games in 2016, 2017, and 2019. Following the 2017 season, Conklin underwent ACL surgery after suffering an injury in the playoffs. That held him out of the first three games of 2018. After returning, Conklin played five games before missing one week with a concussion. He came back for four games until a knee injury held him out for the final four weeks.

That was a worrying stretch for Conklin, but he bounced back in 2019 to play all 19 of Tennessee’s games and play some of his best football.

Tennessee enjoyed a ton of success running in Conklin’s direction this season. On rushes directed right tackle or right end, the Titans averaged 6.1 yards (second-best behind Baltimore) and picked up a first down 29.8% of the time (fourth-best). That success extended into the playoffs, where the Titans posted incredible numbers of 8.5 yards per attempt and a 35.7% first down rate on runs in that direction over their two victories. Conklin earned the sixth-best PFF grade out of 27 qualified tackles through the first three rounds of the playoffs.

Conklin owns solid numbers in pass protection throughout his career, although he clearly has been more consistent in the run game. That lines up with his skillset coming into the 2016 Draft.

Seen below are Conklin’s career ranks in pass-blocking efficiency (per-snap pressure rate allowed with greater weight to sacks) amongst tackles with at least 200 pass-blocking snaps.

• 2019 (out of 78): 37th (one pressure per 16.7 pass-blocking snaps)
• 2018 (out of 76): 54th (one pressure per 15.7 pass-blocking snaps)
• 2017 (out of 77): 15th (one pressure per 20.4 pass-blocking snaps)
• 2016 (out of 74): 20th (one pressure per 17.8 pass-blocking snaps)

It should also be noted that Conklin has played his entire career primarily with Marcus Mariota and Ryan Tannehill, two quarterbacks who take a lot of sacks and tend to hold the ball far too long. That can make an offensive line look worse than they really are. The Titans allowed the highest sack rate in the NFL in 2019, yet their offensive line was actually playing at a high level and ended up being the driving force behind an AFC Championship run.

Conklin is about average in the penalty department. He has 26 in 62 career games, pace for 6.7 per 16 games. That number would rank as the 35th-most among tackles in 2019.

---

The Jets do not have anybody up front who is capable of getting out in space and executing on a consistent basis. Here, Conklin (#78) destroys a linebacker to clear the way for a Derrick Henry touchdown, kicking out from the hash to outside the numbers. You would be extremely hard-pressed to find more than maybe a handful of plays in which a Jets lineman showed this type of range over the past couple of years.

Should the Jets pursue?

If the player in question is an offensive linemen, is below 30 years old, and has a track record of quality play, then the Jets should be making the highest bid for them. Conklin brings tenacity and versatility in the run game the Jets have sorely lacked. He should be a premier target, just like Scherff.

[playtowinthegame]

Scherff, Conklin, and then select Wirfs. 

[CanadaSteve]

On 1/17/2020 at 1:52 PM, playtowinthegame said:

The reality is the Jets will sign a big ticket free agent. Joe Douglas can't do it all in the draft after Mac's neglected the offensive line for his entire tenure with the Jets.

So you take your time and you successfully build through the draft.  Constantly wasting money on big ticket free agents has kept us in the sh*t hold for years. 

[playtowinthegame]

3 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

So you take your time and you successfully build through the draft.  Constantly wasting money on big ticket free agents has kept us in the sh*t hold for years. 

The Jets offensive line is in dire straits. They can't afford not to invest in the offensive line in free agency. Tell me the last time the Jets invested in a "big ticket" free agent who played on the offensive line. Then tell me how that signing kept the Jets in a sh*t hole. 

[Philc1]

1 hour ago, playtowinthegame said:

Scherff, Conklin, and then select Wirfs. 

[Philc1]

1 hour ago, CanadaSteve said:

So you take your time and you successfully build through the draft.  Constantly wasting money on big ticket free agents has kept us in the sh*t hold for years. 

Jets need to do both draft and sign FA’s silly

[CanadaSteve]

2 hours ago, playtowinthegame said:

The Jets offensive line is in dire straits. They can't afford not to invest in the offensive line in free agency. Tell me the last time the Jets invested in a "big ticket" free agent who played on the offensive line. Then tell me how that signing kept the Jets in a sh*t hole. 

I can't tell you the last time the Jets signed a big free agent OL.  But I can tell you about the QB's, the RB's, the WR's, the CB's, the Edge Rushers, and the DL which we signed to "big ticket" free agent dollars and they didn't work out.

I never said don't sign people.  I said, don't go after the Porsche dressed up as a Ferrari, when all you need is a Honda Civic.

You get 7 plus new players every year in the draft.  Find a way to do that well every year and this team, or any team for that matter, will always be in contention.

[playtowinthegame]

45 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

I can't tell you the last time the Jets signed a big free agent OL. 

I rest my case.

[Jetsfan80]

22 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said:

I rest my case.

It's not just the Jets' unwillingness to sign FA OL.  It's also the lack of availability.  Teams just don't let quality OL walk.  I will be very surprised if Conklin or Castonzo slip through.  

Scherff would not be as surprising, but mainly because he's about an average or below average G that will likely want top 5 G money based on his draft pedigree.

[playtowinthegame]

On 1/30/2020 at 4:06 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

It's not just the Jets' unwillingness to sign FA OL.  It's also the lack of availability.  Teams just don't let quality OL walk.  I will be very surprised if Conklin or Castonzo slip through.  

Scherff would not be as surprising, but mainly because he's about an average or below average G that will likely want top 5 G money based on his draft pedigree.

Do below average guards get the franchise tag?

[Jetsfan80]

Do below average guards get the franchise tag?

They do on sh*tty franchises like the Redskins.