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De-valuing of the WR in the NFL. Why the Jets should NOT take a WR at pick #11


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36 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

I've opined for years that WR is the most overvalued position by fans in the NFL. There have been a lot of successful "roster builds" that don't include an elite level receiver.

That said, if a OL worthy of that pick is not there,  and on of Juedy or Lamb are, taken them.

the concept of taking a potential superstar is always there.  but the jets have a terrible running game, and darnold is getting sacked and hit way too much.  the fastest way to fix everything is to draft OL, which addresses the run and pass.  and also, get a young fast rb who can catch.  these things will open up the offense more, and quicker, than drafting a jeudy or lamb and then hoping to get a 2nd rate OL talent after the run on them at the end of the 1st round and top of the 2nd.  

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2 hours ago, RichardTodd27 said:

This is a trend we're going to see more and more of in the NFL. Teams are becoming hesitant to spend a high draft pick on a WR. In the last 2 years only 4 WR's were taken in the 1st round. None were taken in the top 20.  The reason: stud WR's are easy to find in the 2nd round and beyond. Just look at the top WR's for each of the teams in this past weekend's conference finals (Davante, Deebo, A.J. Brown & Tyreek). All 2nd round picks (except for Tyreek who was a 5th rounder). Then add to that guys like Michael Thomas, JuJu, DK Metcalf, Landry.... The list goes on and on of great 2nd round (and beyond) WR's.

No need to spend a 1st round pick on a WR, especially when you're a re-building team like the Jets that are desperate for O-line help and an edge rusher.

Here's my favorite list of 1st round WR's from the 2016 draft:

Corey Coleman

Laquon Treadwell

John Doctson

Will Fuller

Disgusting..........but lesson learned!

Say 'no' to Jeudy & Lamb.

 

 

I would recommend you to watch some tape before starting a topic like this.

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2 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

this, and then consider how pathetic the running game was.  draft OL and draft a faster rb who can catch.  this will fix the offense more than lamb or jeudy.

 

2 hours ago, peebag said:

Go back and watch a few games from this past season.  There are key moments where if Sam had an extra 1/2 ->1 second of time to throw, he would have had monster games.

I'd love me some more weaponz but get me some protection.

Nobody is saying don't draft and fix OL... So this point that you are making is moot... We ALL AGREE the OL needs to be drafted (Multiple) AND in FA.... But you don't fixate at one position in the first 2 rounds of a draft... Especially the first round... by the time the Jets pick 3-4 of the best OL in the draft will be gone... and than there is a big drop off to the next few that are project OL... Project OL should Never be drafted at 11... the failure rate is just too high... 

Look, I am going to trust JD to get it right, as for right now.... But passing on one of the best 2 WRs to come out in years because you are hardset on drafted 1 position is how you fail. Jets have far too many needs... If Wirfs, Wills, and AT are gone you either look to trade down with a team wanting to draft Lamb or Jeudy or a QB or you draft Lamb or Jeudy. 

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4 minutes ago, The Voice of Reason said:

 

Nobody is saying don't draft and fix OL... So this point that you are making is moot... We ALL AGREE the OL needs to be drafted (Multiple) AND in FA.... But you don't fixate at one position in the first 2 rounds of a draft... Especially the first round... by the time the Jets pick 3-4 of the best OL in the draft will be gone... and than there is a big drop off to the next few that are project OL... Project OL should Never be drafted at 11... the failure rate is just too high... 

Look, I am going to trust JD to get it right, as for right now.... But passing on one of the best 2 WRs to come out in years because you are hardset on drafted 1 position is how you fail. Jets have far too many needs... If Wirfs, Wills, and AT are gone you either look to trade down with a team wanting to draft Lamb or Jeudy or a QB or you draft Lamb or Jeudy. 

^^^^^sceenname checks out

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2 hours ago, RichardTodd27 said:

This is a trend we're going to see more and more of in the NFL. Teams are becoming hesitant to spend a high draft pick on a WR. In the last 2 years only 4 WR's were taken in the 1st round. None were taken in the top 20.  The reason: stud WR's are easy to find in the 2nd round and beyond. Just look at the top WR's for each of the teams in this past weekend's conference finals (Davante, Deebo, A.J. Brown & Tyreek). All 2nd round picks (except for Tyreek who was a 5th rounder). Then add to that guys like Michael Thomas, JuJu, DK Metcalf, Landry.... The list goes on and on of great 2nd round (and beyond) WR's.

No need to spend a 1st round pick on a WR, especially when you're a re-building team like the Jets that are desperate for O-line help and an edge rusher.

Here's my favorite list of 1st round WR's from the 2016 draft:

Corey Coleman

Laquon Treadwell

John Doctson

Will Fuller

Disgusting..........but lesson learned!

Say 'no' to Jeudy & Lamb.

 

 

Will Fuller is a game changer... when healthy... 

Outside the first round you can get very good WRs... But the best WRs in the history of the game are almost always first rounders with few exceptions...

Dez Bryant

Julio

AJ Green

Mike Evans

Calvin Johnson 

Jerry Rice

Hopkins

Bechham

Marvin Harrison

Reggie Wayne

Lynn Swan

Michael Irvin

Tim Brown 

There are only a handfull of exceptions in the HOF in the modern era

Cris Collinsworth

Andre Reed 

TO

etc. etc.

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3 hours ago, RichardTodd27 said:

This is a trend we're going to see more and more of in the NFL. Teams are becoming hesitant to spend a high draft pick on a WR. In the last 2 years only 4 WR's were taken in the 1st round. None were taken in the top 20.  The reason: stud WR's are easy to find in the 2nd round and beyond. Just look at the top WR's for each of the teams in this past weekend's conference finals (Davante, Deebo, A.J. Brown & Tyreek). All 2nd round picks (except for Tyreek who was a 5th rounder). Then add to that guys like Michael Thomas, JuJu, DK Metcalf, Landry.... The list goes on and on of great 2nd round (and beyond) WR's.

No need to spend a 1st round pick on a WR, especially when you're a re-building team like the Jets that are desperate for O-line help and an edge rusher.

Here's my favorite list of 1st round WR's from the 2016 draft:

Corey Coleman

Laquon Treadwell

John Doctson

Will Fuller

Disgusting..........but lesson learned!

Say 'no' to Jeudy & Lamb.

 

 

 

3 hours ago, Patriot Killa said:

Way to cherry pick the 16’ Class out of the bunch. None of these prospects were half the caliber that Judy or CeeDee are but carry on.

To be fair, saying that "None of these prospects were half the caliber that Judy or CeeDee" kinda proves his point that they were drafted way too high in 2016. He has a point, but so do you.

If you believe that Judy or CeeDee are worth the pick, then you pull the trigger. Richard using hindsight has to also acknowledge the fact that it takes zero effort to do that. 

The hindsight works both ways. Folks will use hindsight or the Steelers success to support why you shouldnt draft a WR high, and others will use hindsight to say how prospects werent of the same caliber of guys who are currently up for the draft, though the truth of the matter is that we have no actual idea how they will pan out. If we did then guys who are great wouldnt be drafted in the 3rd round, and guys who are JAG's wouldnt be taken in the top 10. 

No one really knows. I think what Richard is pointing out is a trend, which there's enough to support it. He mentioned 2016, but I'd say that 2015 was even worse than that. Sure, you had Cooper in that draft, but I think you had about 5 or 6 WR's drafted in the first round, and outside of Cooper, none of those guys became stars. Meanwhile, teams decided to pass on a small shifty WR with return skills from Kansas St., yet it was Seattle who traded up to draft Lockett, and he's been nothing but a bonafide beast in the league. 

 

Overall im with you. If the Jets took Tee Higgins with the 11th pick, I'd be pretty excited. However, I also wouldnt be surprised if he ended up being a JAG in 5 years either. We never really know for sure. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, ElBarrioJets said:

Just take the offensive tackle. These guys don't get to FA. 

Again, what if the Top 3 OT’s are all off the board by #11? A VERY real possibility.

Why so many people are in favor of bypassing a go-to, #1 wideout for Darnold over the next decade in favor of the 4th or 5th rated OT in this class is baffling to me.

Especially since I highly doubt that Joe Douglas just sits around scratching his ass all throughout FA and relies solely on the draft to improve the OL.

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"Devaluing of the WR... " 

The projected 2020 franchise tag values are out, and WR sits behind only QBs and Edge Rushers as the highest paid position in the NFL, and then there's a $2M drop-off from WR to the next highest paid position (CB). This is not a position that is devalued, this is a position that is highly valued. You get a stud WR on a rookie deal and you're in a great position. It's absolutely a position you take in the first round if/when that's where the value is presenting itself. 

Everyone wants the OL improved, but this idea that the only shot at improving a position group is by taking one in the first round is nonsense. Jets need to hit OL in free agency, and a couple times in their first four picks. I'll say that. But if there's a run on the tackles in the first and you've got a shot at one of these WRs, you grab him and watch Darnold set new Jet passing records. 

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2 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

Again, what if the Top 3 OT’s are all off the board by #11? A VERY real possibility.

Why so many people are in favor of bypassing a go-to, #1 wideout for Darnold over the next decade in favor of the 4th or 5th rated OT in this class is baffling to me.

Especially since I highly doubt that Joe Douglas just sits around scratching his ass all throughout FA and relies solely on the draft to improve the OL.

because the likely scenario is that douglas will have to grossly overpay for OL FA with competition for the few who are worth paying at all.  and then if the jets take a wr and fill in the OL with lesser players again, and darnold is still getting sacked in the top 5 and the running game is again lackluster, what then?  darnold will be coming up for a potential contract extension and the OL will still need major fixing.  

at some point the gm has to decide to dedicate top draft picks to the OL.  most of the time, draft boards have multiple positions that could be justified taking at a certain spot.  the last thing we need is another mccagnanesque philosophy that continues to justify not taking the one position that is the clearest need, and that is holding the offense and the team back the most.

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8 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

because the likely scenario is that douglas will have to grossly overpay for OL FA with competition for the few who are worth paying at all.  and then if the jets take a wr and fill in the OL with lesser players again, and darnold is still getting sacked in the top 5 and the running game is again lackluster, what then?  darnold will be coming up for a potential contract extension and the OL will still need major fixing.  

at some point the gm has to decide to dedicate top draft picks to the OL.  most of the time, draft boards have multiple positions that could be justified taking at a certain spot.  the last thing we need is another mccagnanesque philosophy that continues to justify not taking the one position that is the clearest need, and that is holding the offense and the team back the most.

The Jets are going to have to overpay anyone that they want to bring in. That’s just the facts.

We overpaid for Mosley. We overpaid for Bell. We overpaid for Trumaine. We were hellbent on overpaying Anthony Barr until he got a little tummy ache and decided to jet back to Minnesota.

You’d need to overpay a Yannick Ngakoue, Dante Fowler, Matt Judon, Bud Dupree, Byron Jones, James Bradbury, etc to come here.

So I have no issues with overpaying for a Jack Conklin, Brandon Scherff, Joe Thuney or Graham Glasgow.

All at least above average starting OL who are in the middle of their primes with half a decade of formidable play ahead of them. Hopefully we land two of them.

The OL and WR corps should be hands down the two biggest priorities this offseason. And if I’m Douglas, there’s no way in hell I’m waiting all the way until the draft to start addressing those areas.

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I think there tend to be two types of WR’s who succeed in the NFL. Guys either win by creating separation on the ground (speed and/or agility and route running) or at the couch point (height/leaping ability/strength) - or obviously both ways. 

Draft people tend to look at the speed/agility and the height/leaping ability for those two things. But the guys who consistently make plays have the route running, the strength, and the hands. And those players - plus just flat out burners - can be found on days two and three.

The receiving yardage leaders right now are Michael Thomas (second round), Julio Jones (top ten), Chris Godwin (third round), Travis Kelce (third round TE), Devante Parker (mid first round), Keenan Allen (second round), Kenny Golladay (third round, Amari Cooper (top ten), DJ Moore (late first round), and Jarvis Landry (second round).

You have to get to Jarvis Landry at 10 to find somebody listed below 209 pounds - Landry is listed at 196 but he was 205 at the combine, is a tough SOB, and plays way way bigger than whatever size you see him at.

There’s historically a solid correlation between weight and success in draft picks. Better built guys have an easier time staying healthy and also making plays on the tighter window balls that happen at the NFL level.

Really curious to see what Jeudy and a Lamb weigh in at, but they’re both skinny and listed at  192 and 191-195 respectively. I’m an OL guy anyway but I’d rather not roll the dice on those guys. It’s easier to be physically dominant at the college level.
 

If I’m betting on one it’s Jeudy and his quicks and route running - Lamb I think needs to put on a little weight and be Keenan Allen-ish but Allen is uniquely slippery. But I’d rather take OL and wait. Guys can be found day 2. Take multiple.

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1 hour ago, The Voice of Reason said:

 

Nobody is saying don't draft and fix OL... So this point that you are making is moot... We ALL AGREE the OL needs to be drafted (Multiple) AND in FA.... But you don't fixate at one position in the first 2 rounds of a draft... Especially the first round... by the time the Jets pick 3-4 of the best OL in the draft will be gone... and than there is a big drop off to the next few that are project OL... Project OL should Never be drafted at 11... the failure rate is just too high... 

Look, I am going to trust JD to get it right, as for right now.... But passing on one of the best 2 WRs to come out in years because you are hardset on drafted 1 position is how you fail. Jets have far too many needs... If Wirfs, Wills, and AT are gone you either look to trade down with a team wanting to draft Lamb or Jeudy or a QB or you draft Lamb or Jeudy. 

Number 1, There is no guarantee of the option of trading back in the draft, particularly for this organization. Last time it happened was w/ Parcells.

Second, There are very few legitimate options for O-line help in free agency - we're not the only ones with a need there. 

Third, can you tell me with a great amount of certainty that either Lamb or Jeudy are truly can't miss prospects?  

Fourth, I thought this upcoming draft was deep in WR talent?  We can't find something in the 2nd or 3rd round that's better than an injured Enuwa or Vyncint Smith?

I get it, we haven't seen much talent at WR recently, but good god do we need O-line help.

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1 hour ago, Villain The Foe said:

Overall im with you. If the Jets took Tee Higgins with the 11th pick, I'd be pretty excited. However, I also wouldnt be surprised if he ended up being a JAG in 5 years either. We never really know for sure.

He definitely has a valid point but the 16 class just wasn’t much of a way to exemplify that point. 

I think it’s more of a situational matter, if Judy and Lamb really look the part and you love them, you just take them. BPA on Offense would be my draft philosophy here. Think we’ll really have an idea where we want to go after FA. If we’ve come out of FA with Glasgow and 1-2 others, people will feel so much better about WR if JD goes that route first. I’m sure WR and OL are absolutely going to be the top priority so I feel good about it.

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55 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

He definitely has a valid point but the 16 class just wasn’t much of a way to exemplify that point. 

 

Facts. When I read it even I said 2015 would have been a much better example given the amount of WR's taken as well as how high they were taken. 

The first WR off the board was Coleman at 15 by the Browns, which you have to almost disregard the pick given that this was "The Browns" picking a guy who did nothing but go routes at Baylor and then wanting him to run a complex NFL route tree. 

Outside of that clear mistake, the next WR wasnt taken until the 21st pick in 2016. 

The year prior there were already 2 WR's off the board by the 14th pick, with two going in the top 10. 

Quote

I think it’s more of a situational matter, if Judy and Lamb really look the part and you love them, you just take them. BPA on Offense would be my draft philosophy here. Think we’ll really have an idea where we want to go after FA. If we’ve come out of FA with Glasgow and 1-2 others, people will feel so much better about WR if JD goes that route first. I’m sure WR and OL are absolutely going to be the top priority so I feel good about it.

I would prefer an OT, but if there is a run then I dont want to reach. The two guys I really like are Tee Higgins and a dude that for some reason I havent heard anyone speak about, which is Gabriel Davis from UCF. That dude is a f'ing freak. A 6'3 big body WR with really good speed for his size, but my most favorite thing about him is how he runs his routes, or specifically, how he wins his routes. 

I've seen this guy win match ups with deadly jab steps coming out of his release, the DB didnt have a chance in hell to recover. He also has the ability to win at his breaks, creating nice separation. He's basically a huge target on the football field. That's rare to see coming from a guy with the physical tools. He's not relying soley on being more physically gifted than the opponent. Needs to be consistent though. 

Actually, If the Jets would be guaranteed Higgins and Davis and all we had to do is let Robby walk and trade Adams for a 1st rounder....I'd have to think hard on that for sure. 

 

Check out Gabriel if you havent. 

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5 hours ago, slimjasi said:

Exactly. If the top OL prospects are gone by 11, that makes it very likely that either Lamb or Judy is on the board. The same thing is true the other way around. 

There are ten spots ahead of us. You figure 3 QBs (Burrow, Tua, Herbert) and Chase Young are absolute locks to go in the top 10. That leaves 6 slots ahead of us with Becton, Wills, Wirfs, Lamb, Judy, Simmons (S), Brown (DT), Okudah (CB), and Kinlaw (DT) still on the board.

Hence, we would have to get incredibly unlucky to miss out on all of Becton, Wills, Wirfs, Lamb, and Judy. 

 

Simmons, Okudah & Brown I think are locks to be gone too. The Olineman could all be gone & you have Lamb & Jeudy on the board. 

This is where you hope someone behind us falls in love with a player. Trading back in this draft is the optimal outcome. 

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6 hours ago, RichardTodd27 said:

This is a trend we're going to see more and more of in the NFL. Teams are becoming hesitant to spend a high draft pick on a WR. In the last 2 years only 4 WR's were taken in the 1st round. None were taken in the top 20.  The reason: stud WR's are easy to find in the 2nd round and beyond. Just look at the top WR's for each of the teams in this past weekend's conference finals (Davante, Deebo, A.J. Brown & Tyreek). All 2nd round picks (except for Tyreek who was a 5th rounder). Then add to that guys like Michael Thomas, JuJu, DK Metcalf, Landry.... The list goes on and on of great 2nd round (and beyond) WR's.

No need to spend a 1st round pick on a WR, especially when you're a re-building team like the Jets that are desperate for O-line help and an edge rusher.

Here's my favorite list of 1st round WR's from the 2016 draft:

Corey Coleman

Laquon Treadwell

John Doctson

Will Fuller

Disgusting..........but lesson learned!

Say 'no' to Jeudy & Lamb.

 

 

I agree with you we can find value in the 2nd/3rd rounds in a deep WR draft . It's obvious the two major weaknesses on this football team are OL and WR so if Douglas feels he can get great value in rounds 2 and 3 and via proven FA pick ups I say go for it.

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3 hours ago, Untouchable said:

Again, what if the Top 3 OT’s are all off the board by #11? A VERY real possibility.

Why so many people are in favor of bypassing a go-to, #1 wideout for Darnold over the next decade in favor of the 4th or 5th rated OT in this class is baffling to me.

Especially since I highly doubt that Joe Douglas just sits around scratching his ass all throughout FA and relies solely on the draft to improve the OL.

What if Okudah falls? Would you take him over a receiver? Elite corner vs. elite receiver... both critical needs for the Jets. 

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the bottom line is there's no telling which way the jets are leaning at the moment.  i suspect they will have a couple of top wrs on their draft board along with ot and edge.  at 11 they'll have to weigh which guy is going to have the greatest impact.  and this will depend, in part, on what they do in free agency.

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2 minutes ago, rangerous said:

the bottom line is there's no telling which way the jets are leaning at the moment.  i suspect they will have a couple of top wrs on their draft board along with ot and edge.  at 11 they'll have to weigh which guy is going to have the greatest impact.  and this will depend, in part, on what they do in free agency.

JD will have no choice but to select a top WR if Jeudy or Lamb is available at 11 when we pick. 

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49 minutes ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

What if Okudah falls? Would you take him over a receiver? Elite corner vs. elite receiver... both critical needs for the Jets. 

I would take the WR 10/10 times 

We have basically had two decades of ignoring offensive skill position players in the first round. ENOUGH

 

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9 hours ago, RichardTodd27 said:

This is a trend we're going to see more and more of in the NFL. Teams are becoming hesitant to spend a high draft pick on a WR. In the last 2 years only 4 WR's were taken in the 1st round. None were taken in the top 20.  The reason: stud WR's are easy to find in the 2nd round and beyond. Just look at the top WR's for each of the teams in this past weekend's conference finals (Davante, Deebo, A.J. Brown & Tyreek). All 2nd round picks (except for Tyreek who was a 5th rounder). Then add to that guys like Michael Thomas, JuJu, DK Metcalf, Landry.... The list goes on and on of great 2nd round (and beyond) WR's.

No need to spend a 1st round pick on a WR, especially when you're a re-building team like the Jets that are desperate for O-line help and an edge rusher.

Here's my favorite list of 1st round WR's from the 2016 draft:

Corey Coleman

Laquon Treadwell

John Doctson

Will Fuller

Disgusting..........but lesson learned!

Say 'no' to Jeudy & Lamb.

 

 

Adam Theilen, Wayne Chrebet, Robby Anderson , undrafted...

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3 hours ago, Jetster said:

Simmons, Okudah & Brown I think are locks to be gone too. The Olineman could all be gone & you have Lamb & Jeudy on the board. 

This is where you hope someone behind us falls in love with a player. Trading back in this draft is the optimal outcome. 

Disagree. I wouldn't be shocked if even Andrew Thomas is still on the board at 11. All top 10 teams bite on the flashy/ sexy picks first.

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7 hours ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

What if Okudah falls? Would you take him over a receiver? Elite corner vs. elite receiver... both critical needs for the Jets. 

I take Jeudy/Lamb over Okudah all day.

Okudah is a fine prospect, but the defense played at a competent level with guys like Bless Austin and Arthur Maulet on the outside, we haven’t invested a 1st round pick in a WR in nearly 20 years, there happen to be two very high profile wideouts slated to go in the 8-13 range, and we just invested heavily in a young QB two years ago who we’ve utterly failed to surround with even an average supporting cast to this point.

Darnold is the first legit hope for sustained success that the Jets have had in half a century. Stuff like CB and EDGE should be stuffed on the back burner. Giving Sam an improved OL and a legit #1 receiver is far more crucial to this team in the immediate future.

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4 hours ago, Untouchable said:

I take Jeudy/Lamb over Okudah all day.

Okudah is a fine prospect, but the defense played at a competent level with guys like Bless Austin and Arthur Maulet on the outside, we haven’t invested a 1st round pick in a WR in nearly 20 years, there happen to be two very high profile wideouts slated to go in the 8-13 range, and we just invested heavily in a young QB two years ago who we’ve utterly failed to surround with even an average supporting cast to this point.

Darnold is the first legit hope for sustained success that the Jets have had in half a century. Stuff like CB and EDGE should be stuffed on the back burner. Giving Sam an improved OL and a legit #1 receiver is far more crucial to this team in the immediate future.

At this juncture in the history of this team finding an edge Rusher is more important than a CB. You don't ignore Oline & offensive skill players when your QB has been getting killed. 

You score points & teach defenses how to play with leads. 

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