Draft question about the value of a guard

[TuscanyTile2]

A few years back, people on JN were saying that you don't draft a guard in the top 5 (or maybe top 10?)  This offseason, however, I see a lot of people saying we should sign Brandon Scherff (who was a top 5 pick by the Redskins, the same year we drafted Leonard Williams).

Based on these things, has the value of OL increased in the past few years and so now an OG would be a smart pick in the top 5 (or top 10)?  Or would it still be a waste of a pick that high?  Also, if we have to pay a fortune for an OG in FA then could an argument be made that it would be a smart investment to take one top 5 (or 10)?

[Larz]

[chirorob]

My only argument against a non premium position top 5 is the slotted salary they get come year 4 and 5 of their deal.

They will be getting premium money for their position by then, part of need to hit on draft picks is to try to get good value for the money.

That being said, guards are getting 14+ a year, so if your dream guard is there at 11, take him

[KRL]

I think the impact that Zack Martin and Quenton Nelson have had on the
OLines of their teams has changed that pattern.  Also its harder to find
quality OLine play in college so teams are probably less picky about
the position someone plays as long as they are good

[TNJet]

OTs are the most valuable part of the oline. Especially the blindside. I think your Guards are really only as good as your Tackles make them.

[The Crusher]

Guard > Safety 

[TuscanyTile2]

15 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Guard > Safety 

 

 > OG

[RobR]

1 hour ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

A few years back, people on JN were saying that you don't draft a guard in the top 5 (or maybe top 10?)  This offseason, however, I see a lot of people saying we should sign Brandon Scherff (who was a top 5 pick by the Redskins, the same year we drafted Leonard Williams).

Based on these things, has the value of OL increased in the past few years and so now an OG would be a smart pick in the top 5 (or top 10)?  Or would it still be a waste of a pick that high?  Also, if we have to pay a fortune for an OG in FA then could an argument be made that it would be a smart investment to take one top 5 (or 10)?

It completely depends on the player. If you can find a Faneca or Hutchinson type of course they are worth it......just don't draft the next Warmack or Cooper. 

[TheClashFan]

Tackles block edge rushers, which is massively important.  The OT protecting your QB's blind side, usually a LT, is worth many times his weight in gold. Guards can be pretty key in run blocking, esp. if they can pull well, so a mobile G is worth a lot.

You want an elite LT If you can get one, and you almost always have to draft for it. The Jets need to draft one in the first round this year and cross fingers.

The Jets don't have much $ invested in the OL right now. So, even if they plan to draft 2 OL in the first 2-3 rounds, they can and should overpay for one quality free agent OL, if possible. That's more likely to be a G this year, but maybe they can sign Conklin for RT?

[bealeb319]

The thing is that a probowl guard taking at 5th overall is better than a bust left tackle taken at the same slot. Sometimes drafting a lesser position for a better prospect makes sense.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using JetNation.com mobile app

[nico002]

Blocking starts inside out. I’d rather have a rock solid interior line than the best tackle in the NFL. 

[shuler82]

The answer is the same as it always is - you draft premium positions early and you can spend lesser money to get quality non premium positions in FA ( S/RB/OG). 
 

unfortunately the Jets always get it backwards.

[More Cowbell]

A top 5 or 10 player should he a position defining player. If you think there is a position defining guard available then, you take him. 

[New York Mick]

26 minutes ago, shuler82 said:

The answer is the same as it always is - you draft premium positions early and you can spend lesser money to get quality non premium positions in FA ( S/RB/OG). 
 

unfortunately the Jets always get it backwards.

The top OGs in this year’s FA aren’t going to be cheap. 

[TuscanyTile2]

52 minutes ago, TheClashFan said:

Tackles block edge rushers, which is massively important.  The OT protecting your QB's blind side, usually a LT, is worth many times his weight in gold. Guards can be pretty key in run blocking, esp. if they can pull well, so a mobile G is worth a lot.

You want an elite LT If you can get one, and you almost always have to draft for it. The Jets need to draft one in the first round this year and cross fingers.

The Jets don't have much $ invested in the OL right now. So, even if they plan to draft 2 OL in the first 2-3 rounds, they can and should overpay for one quality free agent OL, if possible. That's more likely to be a G this year, but maybe they can sign Conklin for RT?

I think I've asked this before on here but would a left handed QB be an advantage for a team because you could draft a RT, rather than a LT (which practically every team is competing for) to protect your QB's blind side?  

Or is there no real difference between a LT vs a RT and they're basically interchangeable?

[Beerfish]

I want a really good LT, Centre and one guard.  You can get by with a decent 2nd guard and RT.

We need good players all through the oline and we have none right now.

[nycdan]

If I could have one offensive lineman in his prime from all of NFL history it would be a Guard, not a Tackle.  The next five guys would probably all be tackles, but Larry Allen...I want one of those.

[Greenseed4]

Correct me if I’m wrong but wasn’t Scherff drafted to be an OT, busted there, and THEN moved inside where he’s excelled? 

[Sperm Edwards]

The reason a LT is taken so early, where a G is rarely taken top 10 (and rarer still, without regret in hindsight) is beyond simple position cost. It’s because guards - even PB/AP ones - regularly reach free agency. Scherff looks to be only the latest example.

That’s also part of the reason guards’ salaries rise faster, not purely due to team value: they get more bidding wars due to FA, where starting LTs in their primes get extended before their contracts have expired. A couple years ago the Giants signed a barely top 20 LT in Solder, at age 30, to $16MM/yr. A year later Trent Brown with one season under his belt at LT, got even more. He was also moved back to RT, so I‘m not sure Gruden would make that transaction again in hindsight. Not coincidentally, both were let go by NE who chose to go the draft route at LT (put off by a year followed by another half year due to Wynn’s injuries) instead of paying those veterans that much. Their OL has gotten away with a lot for years, and they know it, so it’s a luxury decision few contenders make in the same way.

If Scherff’s young, multi pro bowl LT equivalent was a UFA he’d get millions more per year than the pro bowl guard, probably reaching ~$20MM/year now. See how much Staley will get from Baltimore, who’s due to extend him between now and September.

Also people quickly and easily forget, somehow, that Scherff was not purely drafted to play guard, and a lot of the reason he was projected/rated that high was because many saw him as a LT prospect. Williams already had recent years with injuries and a bit but noticeable declined play due to them; along with mega expensive demands on extending his expiring contract. In August they already saw Scherff wasn’t well on his way to being a beast tackle that could fill Williams’ huge shoes, and extended TW at the end of the summer. If Scherff panned out even at RT as a rookie that summer - which was the announced intention in the late spring, before the plan soon failed that summer - I think they may have tagged+traded Williams for a bundle and moved Scherff to LT in 2016. Playing him at guard was the backup plan of “oh well, worst case we overdrafted a guard, but at least he should be great at that.” Plus who considers Washington a team building trend setter to be followed?

$14MM may sound like LT money for a top guard, but people are matching that up with what top LTs used to get, not what they get now. Consider also that there are twice as many guards as LTs with big contract opportunities. It’s a mirage. Teams do not generally value guards or RTs or centers the same as LTs. A couple rare exception talents (e.g. Nelson drafted at #6, L.Johnson’s $18MM extension) don’t disprove the rule. Top LT prospects get taken early when there’s talent coming out to match. There just haven’t been many of late. Last time was 2016, and even then it took a cruel hoax to drop Tunsil way down to #13. 

[Maxman]

Top 5 you take a defensive tackle. Or a safety. 

If you are picking top 5 and a hall of fame guard is there, you trade him for a DT and a Safety.

[jetstream23]

1 hour ago, Greenseed4 said:

Correct me if I’m wrong but wasn’t Scherff drafted to be an OT, busted there, and THEN moved inside where he’s excelled? 

Same with Robert Gallery.

 

[Untouchable]

1 hour ago, Greenseed4 said:

Correct me if I’m wrong but wasn’t Scherff drafted to be an OT, busted there, and THEN moved inside where he’s excelled? 

Not really 

He played OT at Iowa but the Redksins were’t drafting him with the idea of replacing a proven pro-bowler like Trent Williams at the time.

[Jetster]

6 hours ago, Maxman said:

Top 5 you take a defensive tackle. Or a safety. 

If you are picking top 5 and a hall of fame guard is there, you trade him for a DT and a Safety.

You trade back instead of taking a LT too, especially if you can trade back skip on Orlando Pace (HOF), Walter Jones (HOF), and end up with James Farrior. Robert Kraft looks like a really, really smart Mofo with all of those Super Bowl trophies after Parcells made him look stupid with the "They want you to Cook the dinner, but they don't let you buy the Groceries" crack.

I can still see Parcells making that comment with that cocky smirk on his face. Well, he bought the groceries here & most of it turned into fetid garbage pretty quickly. Just imagine, in reality, Bill Parcells passed up an opportunity to tell Archie Manning, yes, if Payton comes out we'll take him, (a short sighted self centered decision based on him not wanting to think long term) and then passed on 2 HOF LTs. 

So the great Bill Parcells shopping for the groceries passed on not 1, not 2, but 3 Hall of Fame players. It's mind boggling how poorly the drafting has been on this team. From Kerwin to Bradway, Parcells, through Idzik & Macc. Tannenbaum drafted Revis, Harris, Mangold, Dbrick so he's literally our star GM to date. Joe Douglas doesn't have to high of a hill to climb to do better than his predecessors here. 

[TuscanyTile2]

Let me ask though - do you think Joe D should sign Scherff this offseason? 

[TuscanyTile2]

4 minutes ago, Jetster said:

You trade back instead of taking a LT too, especially if you can trade back skip on Orlando Pace (HOF), Walter Jones (HOF), and end up with James Farrior. Robert Kraft looks like a really, really smart Mofo with all of those Super Bowl trophies after Parcells made him look stupid with the "They want you to Cook the dinner, but they don't let you buy the Groceries" crack.

I can still see Parcells making that comment with that cocky smirk on his face. Well, he bought the groceries here & most of it turned into fetid garbage pretty quickly. Just imagine, in reality, Bill Parcells passed up an opportunity to tell Archie Manning, yes, if Payton comes out we'll take him, (a short sighted self centered decision based on him not wanting to think long term) and then passed on 2 HOF LTs. 

So the great Bill Parcells shopping for the groceries passed on not 1, not 2, but 3 Hall of Fame players. It's mind boggling how poorly the drafting has been on this team. From Kerwin to Bradway, Parcells, through Idzik & Macc. Tannenbaum drafted Revis, Harris, Mangold, Dbrick so he's literally our star GM to date. Joe Douglas doesn't have to high of a hill to climb to do better than his predecessors here. 

I’ve heard that Peyton Manning story a bunch of times but has it ever been confirmed?

As for BP trading back, remember that the Jets gave up multiple top draft picks to acquire him in the first place so that was probably the impetus behind that trade.  And let’s not forget that BP signed a HOF center in Kevin Mawae. And Farrior went on to be a good player, just not for us. And BP had us up 10-0 in the 2H against the Broncos in the AFC CG with the Falcons (who we’d beaten handily that season already) as the SB opponent.  That was the closest we’ve been to (realistically) winning a SB since Namath.  And BP did step down to allow BB to be HC of the NYJ so he did the right thing there too 

[Creepy Lurker]

9 hours ago, shuler82 said:

The answer is the same as it always is - you draft premium positions early and you can spend lesser money to get quality non premium positions in FA ( S/RB/OG). 
 

unfortunately the Jets always get it backwards.

ANY OL position has become premium. I am a big believer of premium positions but OG and C have to be included considering how scarce good OL players are becoming and the huge demand for them. 

[LIJetsFan]

New York Jets 2020 draft: Anything other than OL at No. 11 is a mistake

By

 Robby Sabo

Anything other than an offensive lineman for the New York Jets at No. 11 in the 2020 NFL Draft would be a grave mistake.

Stop it, please. Just… no. For the love of all things football realistic, please stop discussing wide receiver for the New York Jets in the No. 11 hole.

Selecting a wideout in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft is neither realistic nor appropriate for Joe Douglas’s team. An edge rusher is much more acceptable. In fact, it’s arguably the correct way to go due to the idea John Abraham was the organization’s last legit outside pass rusher.

But in the end, It doesn’t matter. Enough is enough. The issue must finally be forced.

Based on the Mike Maccagnan era and Douglas’s words upon assuming the general manager post, it’s offensive line or bust in this spot, and correctly so.

From ESNY, the same people who told you signing Le’Veon Bell was a mistake a year ago, who promised that a Quinnen Williams selection over Josh Allen would present familiar problems, who claimed Kirk Cousins was not the right path and who desperately pleaded with Maccagnan to fix the offensive line in 2016, this time around remains on a familiar topic: the offensive line.

For the Jets, though, this offseason is anything but familiar.

“Best available player” means very little due to circumstances. The situation is so dire upfront nothing else can be accepted.

And Douglas knows it extremely well.

Pro Football Focus was kind to the Jets big-heavy group. Ranking them 28th overall is almost incredible in its own right. According to PFF’s own statistics, they finished with the second-worst pressure attempt in 2.5 seconds or less and averaged just 0.7 yards before contact per rush attempt. Both indicate a league-worst ranking.

Football Outsiders, once again, presents a much clearer overall output. Only the Miami Dolphins finished with a worst “adjusted line yards” mark than the Jets’ 3.80. (In 2018, the Jets O-line was dead last.) They allowed the fifth-most sacks in the league and finished, once again, second in “adjusted sack rate,” with a 9.8 percent mark (again, only beating Miami).

In 2017, the Jets finished 29th in adjusted line yards and 26th in adjusted sack rate.

Blame Adam Gase all you want; this has been an issue since the glory days of Nick Mangold and D’Brickashaw Ferguson’s prime. (And what a coincidence: the last great Jets roster was spurred on thanks to the selections of those two all-time OL greats.)

We asked Maccagnan to fix the offensive line as far back as December 2016. Only three offensive line selections over five drafts (no first or second-rounders) later, and the same beat predictably marches forward: this offense stinks.

It’s not rocket science, folks. Deep dives into analytics aren’t required. The offensive line in football represents nearly half of the entire offense (5-of-11 players). A quick glance at the depth chart and drafting habits of the playoff teams—on a year-by-year basis—paints an easy picture to dissect.

It always starts upfront and no offense (no young quarterback) can get it going until those five big heavies upfront can at least perform near an average level.

A similar scenario presents itself every offseason. One veteran name is acquired to appease the situation (Kelechi Osemele, Spencer Long, Ryan Clady, etc.), and positioning in the draft rationalizes the situation. How could the Jets select an offensive lineman at No. 3? How is it possible to do such a thing when mock drafts don’t feature the next big heavy until several picks later?

It’s a sad mistake general managers in this league make every offseason. Marrying the big board (heavily influenced by mock drafts) destroys depth chart balance.

Not this time. Not with Joe Douglas.

The Turk, as he was known while with the Baltimore Ravens early this century, is a former offensive lineman himself. He understands the importance of having that unit ready to roll. In fact, he uttered the words every Jets fan wanted to hear upon his arrival—the very same words that weren’t uttered once in the entire Maccagnan era.

“It starts with the quarterback and both lines,” Douglas proclaimed.

Football is an inside-out game. It always has been and always will be, despite drastic rule changes. A dominant offensive line and four-man conventional pass rush greatly impact the rest of the roster to a degree that an outside-in strategy could never dare imagine.

Luckily, there’s plenty of offensive linemen projected to go around the No. 11 spot.

Mecki Becton, T, Louisville

Jedrick Willis, T, Alabama

Tristan Wirfs, G, Iowa

Andrew Thomas, T, Georgia

All four of these hogs are projected to go either in the top 10 or somewhere just outside. Many mock drafts have the Jets selecting one of the four or taking K’Lavon Chaisson, an edge player from LSU, via Daniel Jerimiah of NFL.com.

That scenario simply cannot happen. The next offensive lineman off Jeremiah’s board is Austin Jackson (LSU) in the 26th hole. While edge at No. 11 isn’t an unforgivable sin, Douglas knows it has to be offensive line. He cannot wait until the second round, especially with young Sam Darnold coming off another brutally physical season, coupled with a bout of mono.

Instead of edge, a trade-down scenario has to be in Douglas’s back pocket in the event all four primetime offensive linemen are gone prior to 11. And as far as a wide receiver or cornerback is concerned… forget about it (in a deep New York voice). Such a sin is reserved for Maccagnan drafts, only (i.e. Quinnen Williams with Josh Allen on the board).

Football isn’t complicated. “Best available player” is as close to a myth as anything in this great game can project. If such a notion were true, Derwin James would have been a top-five pick instead of a mid-first-rounder. Joe Montana and Tom Brady are first off the board.

Greater than “best available player” is the idea of unit completion and creating the greatest ceiling for every one of the 53 players on the depth chart. As crazy as the following statement sounds, it’s true: Jamal Adams’s first three seasons in the league have been severely handicapped due to one of the league’s worst four-man conventional pass rushes.

As great as Adams is, however, is how dire Darnold’s situation remains. The Jets kid QB has always played under severe handicap scenarios for two seasons. Always running for his life and seeing ghosts doesn’t all fall on those around him, but actual development doesn’t truly begin until the offensive line is set. Or, at the very least, league-average.

Don’t you dare mention wide receiver at No. 11. An edge rusher could be an outside possibility. But offensive line, this time around, thanks to the sins that came before him, must be Joe Douglas’s only option for his New York Jets.

And, thankfully, for fans, he knows it as well as anybody in the game.

[KRL]

Considering how defenses bring pressure from anywhere at anytime
I believe the thought that the "LT is everything" is out of date.
There isn't one position on the OLine where you can just put some
"big fat guy" anymore:

- Centers have to be the "brains" of the line.  Diagnosing the
defense and relaying line calls to everyone, including the QB

- Guards have to be smart and athletic.  They have to work in
tandem with the center and other guard to secure the "front of
the pocket".  Also they have to diagnose the interior blitzes
defenses bring

- The LT is important in pass protection, but with the way defenses
move their pass rushers around can the RT just be forgotten???

Since Joe Douglas played OLine in college, hopefully he recognizes
the importance of every position and doesn't get stuck in old
thinking

[section314]

I would spend a high pick on a center before a guard.

[chirorob]

He was always a guard.

[chirorob]

16 minutes ago, section314 said:

I would spend a high pick on a center before a guard.

I prefer a center as well.  But there are no centers worth taking top 15 this year.

[NYJ1]

12 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

A few years back, people on JN were saying that you don't draft a guard in the top 5 (or maybe top 10?)  This offseason, however, I see a lot of people saying we should sign Brandon Scherff (who was a top 5 pick by the Redskins, the same year we drafted Leonard Williams).

Based on these things, has the value of OL increased in the past few years and so now an OG would be a smart pick in the top 5 (or top 10)?  Or would it still be a waste of a pick that high?  Also, if we have to pay a fortune for an OG in FA then could an argument be made that it would be a smart investment to take one top 5 (or 10)?

Another dumb provocation by those wonderful armchair General Managers we have here at Jet Nation.

[Jet Nut]

10 hours ago, bealeb319 said:

The thing is that a probowl guard taking at 5th overall is better than a bust left tackle taken at the same slot.

Well, yeah, LOL

[GreenFish]

It seems to me like you can get by with so so interior pass blocking because you can double good interior DL. So you just really need one guy who can handle guys one on one. The value of interior lineman comes in the running game. I have no analytics to back this up though.

If I were to craft an OL, I’d focus on getting good run blocking iOL and getting good pass blocking OT. If a guard is a game changing run blocker and has all pro potential, I think he’s worth the 11th pick. Quenton Nelson was worth a top 5 pick.

[NYJ1]

12 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

A few years back, people on JN were saying that you don't draft a guard in the top 5 (or maybe top 10?)  This offseason, however, I see a lot of people saying we should sign Brandon Scherff (who was a top 5 pick by the Redskins, the same year we drafted Leonard Williams).

Based on these things, has the value of OL increased in the past few years and so now an OG would be a smart pick in the top 5 (or top 10)?  Or would it still be a waste of a pick that high?  Also, if we have to pay a fortune for an OG in FA then could an argument be made that it would be a smart investment to take one top 5 (or 10)?

It will only be a waste of a pick if it turns out the player is a bust. It's ALWAYS risk, but it's NEVER  a waste of a pick unless the kid can't play. Vladimir Ducasse was a WASTED pick. Brandon Sherff in the top 5 is an EXCELLENT pick so long as the kid plays up to His draft spot. That's where it becomes very subjective as everyone has a different opinion on what "playing up to your draft spot" means. But traditionally high picks used on OL are the safest picks and that's even more reason to think nothing of using a top 5 pick on a Guard.