Jump to content
nycdan

Draft Day strategy

Recommended Posts

Been looking at mock after mock that show all combinations of how the top-4 OL get taken.  The chances are pretty good that one of them will be available to us at #11 and if we don't see too wide a gap between any of them (or land a LT in FA) then we should be happy to sit and wait.  But let's say there's only 3 we really like and 2 of them are gone by pick 8 (pretty good odds).  

JAX is almost certainly not looking to go OL and seem to be strongly linked to Derrick Brown (DT) or another defender.  If that's the case, then he would just as readily be there at #11 as at #9 since CLE is almost certain to go OL as well.  Which brings me to this.

Why not have a deal in place to swap 1st round picks with the Jaguars to jump CLE for that last OL if the situation comes up?  Sure, nobody wants to give up picks, but I would guess that #11 and #79 (our own 3rd round pick) would be a nice swap for #9 and #113 (JAX's 4th rounder).  It's a bit more than fair value to give up but if it gets us the LT we want/need, it seems a small price to pay, and we would have the same number of picks.  We could even ask for them to throw in one of their two 6th round picks to balance it a bit more.  

Just seems to me if the LT we really want for the next decade is available at #9, the difference in value of a mid-3rd rounder and a high-4th rounder isn't a reason to watch him disappear into CLE's clutches.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, nycdan said:

Been looking at mock after mock that show all combinations of how the top-4 OL get taken.  The chances are pretty good that one of them will be available to us at #11 and if we don't see too wide a gap between any of them (or land a LT in FA) then we should be happy to sit and wait.  But let's say there's only 3 we really like and 2 of them are gone by pick 8 (pretty good odds).  

JAX is almost certainly not looking to go OL and seem to be strongly linked to Derrick Brown (DT) or another defender.  If that's the case, then he would just as readily be there at #11 as at #9 since CLE is almost certain to go OL as well.  Which brings me to this.

Why not have a deal in place to swap 1st round picks with the Jaguars to jump CLE for that last OL if the situation comes up?  Sure, nobody wants to give up picks, but I would guess that #11 and #79 (our own 3rd round pick) would be a nice swap for #9 and #113 (JAX's 4th rounder).  It's a bit more than fair value to give up but if it gets us the LT we want/need, it seems a small price to pay, and we would have the same number of picks.  We could even ask for them to throw in one of their two 6th round picks to balance it a bit more.  

Just seems to me if the LT we really want for the next decade is available at #9, the difference in value of a mid-3rd rounder and a high-4th rounder isn't a reason to watch him disappear into CLE's clutches.

 

Not a bad thought to consider. I would doubt that the Jags are throwing in anything else to move back. Even trading picks, while the chart may support it, seems unlikely. I'd say just throwing them #79 to jump up 2 spots would be more of what it would take. I'd even think that they may balk at that. They'd probably be asking for our 2nd, which I would not do. 

The exact trade scenario you created would not be that bad if Thomas, Wirfs or Bechton were still there. Getting #113 for #79 for the delight of jumping the Browns to take our guy would be well worth it.  

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Rolloffjet said:

How about just take best wr if there a gap between ot. 

Yeah.  I think it's extremely  likely we'll sign some OL help in FA.  Which would mean taking a top WR is totally fine - and I'd rather save the picks.

 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dane Brugler has us jumping up to 7, giving up our two thirds in the process. His rationale was the Jets may like one or two tackles much more than the others - he gave us Becton, but it could be any of the top tier guys - and will do whatever is necessary to grab one (assuming NYG take one at 4). I kind of see where he is coming from but hate it at the same time. Those two thirds are priceless. 

 

I

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, K_O_Brien said:

Dane Brugler has us jumping up to 7, giving up our two thirds in the process. His rationale was the Jets may like one or two tackles much more than the others - he gave us Becton, but it could be any of the top tier guys - and will do whatever is necessary to grab one (assuming NYG take one at 4). I kind of see where he is coming from but hate it at the same time. Those two thirds are priceless. 

 

Yeah, that feels like way too much to move up with so many guys available.  I'm not sure any of them are an Ogden or a Nelson that you'd pay that much for.  Flipping one of the thirds for a lower pick to move up for a guy feels much less painful to me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have read that Jedrick Willis is not a real fit for the jets. That really leaves 3 options, and there is a big chance they are gone by 11. If they are, we should try and trade down, as I have a feeling we could move down just a couple of spots and come up a couple of good picks. The raiders are right behind us, and I believe they are going to be in on Hubert if he falls, or Jordan Love. There are several teams like the colts, bucs, broncos, dallas, patriots that could pull a move and trade up for one of them. We are in a good spot to collect if that happens. 

Josh Jones would be a good fall back option in the mid first round, he compares well to Andre Dillard, who Joe Douglas drafted just this past year. 

It would be a mistake to draft a wide receiver before the 3rd round unless someone we have really high rated falls like a Justin Jefferson. I believe there are a ton of starting quality receivers who are bound to fall because there are just too many. 

I also think that drafting a center before the 3rd round would be a mistake also, unless one of the top tier guys like Cesar Ruiz or Tyler Biadasz is there. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I could certainly see it.

Flip side - Jets do not move up and on the clock at 11 the Saints call - they want to make an aggressive move up. Either to get a QB to groom behind Brees or to make a push while they still have him. They don't have a lot of assets (no second this year) but offer next year's 1 in addition to this year's 1 (24) and 3. Do you take it? Move down significantly but five picks in the first two days plus a one next year.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, derp said:

I could certainly see it.

Flip side - Jets do not move up and on the clock at 11 the Saints call - they want to make an aggressive move up. Either to get a QB to groom behind Brees or to make a push while they still have him. They don't have a lot of assets (no second this year) but offer next year's 1 in addition to this year's 1 (24) and 3. Do you take it? Move down significantly but five picks in the first two days plus a one next year.

Yeah 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/5/2020 at 6:21 PM, nycdan said:

Been looking at mock after mock that show all combinations of how the top-4 OL get taken.  The chances are pretty good that one of them will be available to us at #11 and if we don't see too wide a gap between any of them (or land a LT in FA) then we should be happy to sit and wait.  But let's say there's only 3 we really like and 2 of them are gone by pick 8 (pretty good odds).  

JAX is almost certainly not looking to go OL and seem to be strongly linked to Derrick Brown (DT) or another defender.  If that's the case, then he would just as readily be there at #11 as at #9 since CLE is almost certain to go OL as well.  Which brings me to this.

Why not have a deal in place to swap 1st round picks with the Jaguars to jump CLE for that last OL if the situation comes up?  Sure, nobody wants to give up picks, but I would guess that #11 and #79 (our own 3rd round pick) would be a nice swap for #9 and #113 (JAX's 4th rounder).  It's a bit more than fair value to give up but if it gets us the LT we want/need, it seems a small price to pay, and we would have the same number of picks.  We could even ask for them to throw in one of their two 6th round picks to balance it a bit more.  

Just seems to me if the LT we really want for the next decade is available at #9, the difference in value of a mid-3rd rounder and a high-4th rounder isn't a reason to watch him disappear into CLE's clutches.

 

Honestly, only if A.Thomas is slipping and we think he will be there at 9. I'm not giving up a 3rd for a future RT or OG or a guy like Becton who is much more of a risk. 

I mean, look, you go after the guy you want. If the Jets really like Becton/Wirfs/Wills, whoever and they think that guy is THE guy (whether that means he plays OG or LT or RT) and they think the Browns may take him, by all means. BUT ME, I stand pat unless A.Thomas is there. He is still my top OT and I think he will be a LT at the NFL level and I see him as a plug and play player. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’d stand pat because i think a good OT we like will be there and/or Jeudy/Ceedee.  Can’t lose at 11 the way I see it right now.
 

We could end up choosing between 2 of the top 4 OT’s and the two top tier WR’s and the position is deep at both positions so we can take the other in the 2nd/3rd/3rd. The WR pool goes on forever and for OT”s guys like Trae Adams and Isiah Wilson will be around on day 2 which makes me hard.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, David Harris said:

I’d stand pat because i think a good OT we like will be there and/or Jeudy/Ceedee.  Can’t lose at 11 the way I see it right now.
 

We could end up choosing between 2 of the top 4 OT’s and the two top tier WR’s and the position is deep at both positions so we can take the other in the 2nd/3rd/3rd. The WR pool goes on forever and for OT”s guys like Trae Adams and Isiah Wilson will be around on day 2 which makes me hard.

Prince Tega Wanogho should be there in Rd. 2, Josh Jones could be there in Rd. 2 despite the current hype. Lucas Niang, Austin Jackson, to name a couple more. Theres a number of other raw and under the radar OT prospects that will be available in Rd. 3 and 4 as well that I like.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jets have too many holes on their roster to be given up picks. Stand pat and take the best offensive player available 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/8/2020 at 8:22 PM, derp said:

I could certainly see it.

Flip side - Jets do not move up and on the clock at 11 the Saints call - they want to make an aggressive move up. Either to get a QB to groom behind Brees or to make a push while they still have him. They don't have a lot of assets (no second this year) but offer next year's 1 in addition to this year's 1 (24) and 3. Do you take it? Move down significantly but five picks in the first two days plus a one next year.

Absolutely not. We need stars thats too far of a drop for me and the saints are gonna be good again next year so it’ll be another late 1st. I’ll gladly stay at 11 and take one of the OTs, Lamb or Jeudy!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So far, the Jets haven't done anything to take multiple glaring needs at OT, WR, CB and Edge rusher off the board.

My ONLY wish this offseason was that the Jets could remain nimble enough at #11 to go EITHER OT or WR....but now their need for an OT might be so critical that they actually trade up.  And, that will piss me off to no end since we need to keep every Draft pick we have.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It’s looking increasingly unlikely that the big 4 will be there. If they’re gone we could trade back and acquire an extra pick. Target Ezra Cleveland and Matt Peart. Both guys fit this athletic profile the Jets seem to want. The downside is that Austin Jackson also fits and I hate him as a prospect.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Since JD is striking out in free agency worse than a nerdy kid on prom night I figure he has to nail every pick in this draft so here we go:

 

1. Wills or Becton (whoever falls)

2. Duvernay

3. Edwards-Hillaire

3. Anae

 

Duvernay will be able to start immediately and be effective.  Becton or Wills will start at LT from day one and should be fine

 

Edwards-Hilaire and Bell could be a really good RB committee

 

Anae had 13 sacks mostly against top competition.  He’s not a workout warrior he’s just a football player and probably ends up as another Thomas or Jenkins type at OLB who is good against the run and gives you 6-7 sacks per year

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Believe 11 and 68 for 22 and 25 is an exact match on the trade value chart. Minnesota comes up to get a Diggs replacement, Jets go tackle and WR in the late first while retaining 48 to potentially go OL or WR again.

Could go a few different ways tackle wise - some mocks have Thomas slipping (coming out with Thomas and Mims and still having 48 and 79 would be wild), Josh Jones likely fits, etc.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another one. Both Seattle and Baltimore have the ammo to get up to 11 with their late 1’s and pair of 2’s. Both teams might need a pick or two back (Baltimore’s picks are worth 60 more than eleven on the chart - the fourth and a six would do it - Seattle’s just ten more so late picks) but either would provide the Jets with a whole lot of ammo in a draft that suits the needs well.

Would be 27, 59, and 64 from Seattle or 28, 55, and 60 from Baltimore.

Even if it’s the Baltimore trade and a four is going back, would be pretty cool to have 28, 48, 55, 60, 68, and 79. Could really help accelerate the rebuild IMO.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I do not see JD trading up. If anything, he’ll trade back. Assuming the top Tackles are off the board at 11, that means a QB or highly rated WR will be on the board still. At that moment JD will shop the pick in an effort to trade back and get more picks. It’s how he does business. Picks in rounds 2, 3 and 4 are valuable to a guy that knows how to draft. I just hope JD is one of those guys.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




Content Partnership

Yes Network

Site Sponsor

MILE-Social - NJ Social Media & SEO company
×
×
  • Create New...