Perspective on Lions' OG Graham Glasgow, a potential Free Agent

[jetstream23]

https://lionswire.usatoday.com/2019/12/31/lions-smart-to-let-graham-glasgow-test-free-agency/

Quote

Lions smart to let Graham Glasgow test free agency

The Detroit Lions had numerous opportunities and ample salary cap space to sign starting right guard Graham Glasgow to a contract extension. Glasgow indicated a willingness to sign one, too.

But it never happened, and now the four-year starter is going to be a free agent. It seems that is what the Lions wanted. And while it might be frustrating to see a quality veteran starter walk out the door, I believe it’s the right decision for the Lions.

Glasgow is a perfectly fine starter, but what he offers is not irreplaceable. And for the price tag it would take to keep Glasgow in Detroit, the money to replace him will be better spent on upgrades at other positions of much greater impact.

Based on some recent guards of comparable ability, Glasgow figures to sign for around $7-8 million per season. That’s what guys like Zach Fulton (Texans), Billy Turner (Packers) and Jamon Brown (Falcons) have signed for in the past 12 months. Glasgow is slightly better than any of those guys and could command closer to $9 million per year on average.

That’s a lot of money to spend on a position where the Lions clearly don’t value continuity, And the guard rotation they deployed all season, with Glasgow, Joe Dahl and Kenny Wiggins shuffling in and out of the lineup, is a very strong indication the Lions don’t value continuity up front. In a recent press conference, head coach Matt Patricia spoke very favorably about the guard rotation system, pegging it a great success.

I might disagree with that notion completely, but my opinion does not matter. What matters is that Patricia and the Lions obviously feel good enough about rotating that paying a free agent premium for the guard position makes no financial sense to the team. It’s better to let someone else pay Glasgow the bigger money than for the Lions to pony up that kind of cash and continue to pay so much for a part-time player.

Do I think it’s smart to let Glasgow leave? No, I do not. I would have signed him months ago. But based on the Bob Quinn/Patricia vision of their Lions, it makes perfect sense to let Glasgow test free agency and let the market set his value. If he doesn’t find greener grass elsewhere, and he might not, Glasgow could return for less than the expected going rate. That’s a gamble the Lions are willing to take, and I believe they’re smart to take it.

The line is built around center Frank Ragnow and tackles Taylor Decker and Rick Wagner. Ragnow is one of the best in the league at his position, while Decker and Wagner are no worse than average starters. Those positions, center and tackle, are more critical to a team’s success. While ignoring guard is stupid, it’s the best place on the offensive line to have a relative weakness.

There will be cheaper options available in free agency, as well as potential to snag a possible replacement in the middle rounds of the draft. That’s how Glasgow came to Detroit in the first place, to replace the more expensive Laken Tomlinson (traded away) and Larry Warford (free agency). He’s been just as good as Warford and better than Tomlinson was in Detroit for far cheaper.

The Lions are banking on replicating that cycle. It’s the smart decision. Use that extra money on a higher-grade wide receiver to replace free agent-to-be Danny Amendola, or a higher-end cornerback in free agency to pair with Darius Slay and Amani Oruwariye. It could be the difference between signing perennial Pro Bowler Chris Harris or bringing back Nevin Lawson, as a hypothetical example. That’s a tradeoff every Lions fan should embrace.

 

[section314]

Sounds like this player is the Lion's version of Brian Winters.

[Beerfish]

The NFL has changed from the days of Alan Faneca.  Teams do not let top tier olineman go.  FA oline often is a stop gap, the odd time a team gets lucky but more often than not these guys do not move the needle.  Having said that the jets oline is so pathetic that any little improvement is good but you do not build an oline via fa.

[Lith]

Glasgow is a solid player.  Would be an upgrade over Winters, imo.  If we release Winters, that saves over $7MM cap space, which goes a long way to upgrading the position.

 

[Long Island Leprechaun]

How is it that the author says it's smart to do something he thinks is stupid? I'm confused.

[freestater]

The Lions think that rotating players on o-line is a good strategy?

That's dumb. 

[Jetsfan80]

6 minutes ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

How is it that the author says it's smart to do something he thinks is stupid? I'm confused.

A lot of the time the Editor creates the title of the article.  This could be one of those situations.  

[BCJet]

Glasgow at $8/9 million per year is a steal given the state of Oline play in the league and factoring in his ability to play center.

5 years $45 million for him would be a great way to start free agency and allow us to draft a center or guard in the 2-4th rounds and let Glasglow play whichever position is left.

[ljr]

3 hours ago, freestater said:

The Lions think that rotating players on o-line is a good strategy?

That's dumb. 

agreed ... I was like WTF when I read that??

[themeangreenkillingmachine]

4 hours ago, Beerfish said:

The NFL has changed from the days of Alan Faneca.  Teams do not let top tier olineman go.  FA oline often is a stop gap, the odd time a team gets lucky but more often than not these guys do not move the needle.  Having said that the jets oline is so pathetic that any little improvement is good but you do not build an oline via fa.

Faneca wasn’t resigned because the Steelers were and still are know for letting players walk a year or 2 early rather than too late. Faneca was good for 2 years with the jets then he slipped. 
 

1 or 2 pro bowlers hit FA every year. The all pros only hit when they’re coming off injury. But yes only a few great Linemen in their prime have hit free agency. Steve Hutchinson, Kevin Mawae

[Jetster]

4 hours ago, Lith said:

Glasgow is a solid player.  Would be an upgrade over Winters, imo.  If we release Winters, that saves over $7MM cap space, which goes a long way to upgrading the position.

 

Let Wnters walk & give this guy 2 mill more? Sign me up, it would be a great way to start free agency. Glasgow, Conklin & Ngokeou. 

Give Ngokeou the money some are saying should go to Jenkins. Our pass rush was abysmal & Jenkins was one of the reasons, he gets stonewalled way too much. 

[Barry McCockinner]

Another article on Glasgow

https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2020/2/3/21120025/2020-detroit-lions-free-agent-profiles-graham-glasgow-contract-value-approximation

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One of the biggest decisions the Detroit Lions must make this offseason appears to have already been made. Starting right guard Graham Glasgow is facing free agency, but every indication is that the Lions have already moved on.

Glasgow was due for an extension last summer, but there wasn’t even the smallest of rumors that the Lions neared a deal with him. Now that the season is over, Glasgow just wants to feel wanted, and the Lions have done very little to show him that they do, in fact, want him.

Should the Lions try to re-sign Glasgow? Most would agree the answer is yes. But that shouldn’t really be the question. Instead, we should ask ourselves how much are we willing to pay Graham Glasgow, as that may be the true sticking point here.

Expectations before 2019

After having played center in 2018, it became apparent that 2018 first-round pick Frank Ragnow was moving back to his college position, and Glasgow was being moved back to guard. Many believed this was a more natural position for Glasgow. However, the significant difference was that Glasgow had played 1.5 seasons as the Lions’ left guard. Now, he was slated to replace T.J. Lang on the right side.

It was going to be obvious adjustment for Glasgow, but after three seasons of solid play, the general belief was that Glasgow would be one of the strengths of the offensive line, with Ragnow’s move to center also being a net positive.

Actual role in 2019

2019 Stats: 15 games (15 starts)
PFF Grade: 74.1 (10th of 97 qualifying Gs—minimum of 20% of snaps)

Glasgow had his best season to date by PFF’s standards, yet the Detroit Lions did not treat him that way. He was constantly in a rotation with veteran guard Kenny Wiggins, who regularly took about 20 percent of playing time from him each game. Whereas in his previous two seasons, Glasgow missed just one snap total.

Glasgow was particularly effective in Detroit’s newly-formed running game, but was still at an above-average level as a pass blocker, as well.

What should the Lions do with him?

Contract Status: Unrestricted free agent

The case for re-signing:

If the Lions are truly trying to build an offense that is capable of running the ball and controlling the clock, Glasgow should be considered one of their biggest pieces on offense. He’s clearly talented, he’s a good scheme fit, he’s still just 27 years old, and perhaps most importantly, he’s excelled at literally every interior offensive line position in NFL.

A decent contract could lock him up for the next five years and give the Lions nothing to worry about at at right guard, while giving them an extremely valuable player capable of filling in for injury at any spot.

The case for letting him walk:

The only case here is price, and it’s one we should talk about. Let’s look at the biggest deals handed to guards recently. In 2019 alone, five guards cashed in on deals worth over $10 million a year:

• Brandon Brooks: Four years, $56.35 million ($14.1 million average)
• Ali Marpet: Five years, $54.125 million ($10.8 million average)
• Cody Whitehair: Five years, $51.25 million ($10.25 million average)
• Rodger Saffold: Four years, $44 million ($11 million average)
• Kevin Zeitler: Three years, $32 million ($10.66 million average)

Glasgow’s situation is most similar to Marpet and Whitehair, both of whom were coming off of rookie deals. Both the Buccaneers (for Marpet) and Bears (Whitehair) believed it was worth it to keep their second-round draft picks around.

The question for the Lions is simple: Is $11 million per year worth it for Glasgow? The simple answer is, “Of course.” The trickier answer is... well, what about Taylor Decker’s extension, which could be coming this summer, and what about the $11.9 million in cap space you’re already spending on Rick Wagner? Even without a Decker extension, the left tackle will cost $10.35 million against the cap in 2020, so you’re talking about potentially three offensive linemen costing the Lions over $10 million in cap space each (depending on how they would format Glasgow’s deal). As of right now, there is only one team spending $10 million on three different offensive linemen: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

• Left tackle Donovan Smith: $14.5 million cap hit
• G Ali Marpet: $11.0 million cap hit
• C Ryan Jensen: $10 million cap hit

Without a starting guard currently under contract for 2020, the Lions are still 19th in cap space devoted to the offensive line. Add in Glasgow’s potential deal (let’s say $11 million cap hit), and Detroit jumps to sixth. You could argue that’s a good thing, but for a team with so many defensive needs, that’s a lot of scratch to spend on the offensive line.

My thoughts:

I still think it’s worth it. Offensive line has been a problem for so many years in Detroit, and the most frustrating part of it is that former Lions players have gone on to have somewhat successful seasons elsewhere. Larry Warford and Laken Tomlinson haven’t been world-beaters in New Orleans and San Francisco, but they’ve found successful teams that didn’t mind paying them significantly.

If the Lions have to spend $11-12 million a year on Glasgow, then so be it. You’re unlikely to find a player as talented and as versatile as Glasgow either in free agency or the draft. The Lions will need to utilized some cost-cutting strategies, but this isn’t the position nor the player to do it to. If the Lions want to run the ball successfully and build and offensive line that will continue to carry this offense, a Glasgow re-signing is a must.

 

[Daddy Wang Doodle]

Sign this beast!

[NYallDay]

Let Wnters walk & give this guy 2 mill more? Sign me up, it would be a great way to start free agency. Glasgow, Conklin & Ngokeou. 
Give Ngokeou the money some are saying should go to Jenkins. Our pass rush was abysmal & Jenkins was one of the reasons, he gets stonewalled way too much. 

Jenkins has a career high in sacks this year I think


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[ljr]

"Glasgow had his best season to date by PFF’s standards, yet the Detroit Lions did not treat him that way. He was constantly in a rotation with veteran guard Kenny Wiggins, who regularly took about 20 percent of playing time from him each game. Whereas in his previous two seasons, Glasgow missed just one snap total."

(this quote from the 2nd article doesn't make sense with Matt Patricia only starting rotating OL last year?  and after letting 1 or 2 of his previous starting 5 leave and sticking a rookie in?  wtf !?!?  ... guess the only answer is Patricia's an idiot!

 

In addition to the LG/C/RG versatility, this "Glasgow was particularly effective in Detroit’s newly-formed running game, but was still at an above-average level as a pass blocker, as well." certainly would lead me to believe Glasgow will be offered an, at least 11mil per year deal in FA

[T0mShane]

39 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

2019 Stats: 15 games (15 starts)
PFF Grade: 74.1 (10th of 97 qualifying Gs—minimum of 20% of snaps)

For a wee $9 mil per? Get it done, Joey Dougy

[GREENBEAN]

Let Wnters walk & give this guy 2 mill more? Sign me up, it would be a great way to start free agency. Glasgow, Conklin & Ngokeou. 
Give Ngokeou the money some are saying should go to Jenkins. Our pass rush was abysmal & Jenkins was one of the reasons, he gets stonewalled way too much. 

Right.
I like Jenkins as a player but he should not be getting big time Pass rusher money. If that’s where his demands are and someone is going to give it to him, then I would allow him to go.

Again, I like him and think he’s a good guy to retain. He’s solid. But he’s a 6 mil guy Imo.


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[Barry McCockinner]

43 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

For a wee $9 mil per? Get it done, Joey Dougy

I'm very skeptical about teams allowing good o-linemen to walk but it sounds like this guy might make sense for us. If we sign him I'm OK with it but will be waiting for bad things to happen.

[Daddy Wang Doodle]

22 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I'm very skeptical about teams allowing good o-linemen to walk but it sounds like this guy might make sense for us. If we sign him I'm OK with it but will be waiting for bad things to happen.

I totally get the concern and it's a legitimate discussion to be had, but really what's the downside? A mill or two more for someone who could be a substantial upgrade at a position of need. Even if he sucks how much worse can the line be?

[Aussie Jet]

The Lions are not the paragon of roster management. If Douglas thinks Glasgow would upgrade the offensive line and the price is within budget, let's take advantage of the Lions approach to managing their roster.

Patricia is not a good head coach and their front office is not the fount for GMs around the league. The fact they would let Glasgow walk is neither here nor there.

[BurnleyJet]

This is the Winters of our discontent..

Get the bum outta here, and embrace the fine Scottish City! 

He does seem qualified to be a NY Jet.

The now compulsory DUI..

 

Glasgow was arrested on March 15, 2014, for driving under the influence. On July 14, 2014, he was sentenced to one year of probation, after entering a guilty plea to operating while visibly impaired. He also received six days of community service and $885 in fines and court costs.^[6] On March 15, 2015, Graham violated his probation, and had six months added to his year-long probation, after registering a .086 on a breathalyzer test.^[7]

[Jetster]

11 hours ago, NYallDay said:

Jenkins has a career high in sacks this year I think


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None of them are memorable. Now if he had a sack in the 2nd half of the Buffalo game to open the season & stopped them from overcoming a 16-0 lead, yea, but sorry, no. 

[NYJ1]

18 hours ago, Beerfish said:

The NFL has changed from the days of Alan Faneca.  Teams do not let top tier olineman go.  FA oline often is a stop gap, the odd time a team gets lucky but more often than not these guys do not move the needle.  Having said that the jets oline is so pathetic that any little improvement is good but you do not build an oline via fa.

You never say never. It really depends on the roster. If you have a team that does an excellent job drafting and always a good OL coming up through the ranks then you can afford to let certain OL go and leave via FA.

[BCJet]

12 hours ago, Aussie Jet said:

The Lions are not the paragon of roster management. If Douglas thinks Glasgow would upgrade the offensive line and the price is within budget, let's take advantage of the Lions approach to managing their roster.

Patricia is not a good head coach and their front office is not the fount for GMs around the league. The fact they would let Glasgow walk is neither here nor there.

Exactly - why assume that the Lions FO is good at their jobs.  They rotated the guards all season and then when Glasglow wanted to resign didnt even extend him a contract offer.  

Also, the original article fails to mention that if you do let a quality player walk and then happen to hit on a draft pick to replace them, that pick is unable to help at a different position.  

[Sammybighead]

19 hours ago, section314 said:

Sounds like this player is the Lion's version of Brian Winters.

No, they said they would have liked him back

[Jet Nut]

15 hours ago, themeangreenkillingmachine said:

Faneca wasn’t resigned because the Steelers were and still are know for letting players walk a year or 2 early rather than too late. Faneca was good for 2 years with the jets then he slipped. 
 

1 or 2 pro bowlers hit FA every year. The all pros only hit when they’re coming off injury. But yes only a few great Linemen in their prime have hit free agency. Steve Hutchinson, Kevin Mawae

Using Faneca as an example of how the NFL has changed was a poor choice.  His situation is no different than others today.  Hes a OL at the endo f his career with a big price tag due to his status.  Nothing has changed, who believes its totally different today.

[TNJet]

Sign Scherff, and draft 3 more OL in the draft. I'll sleep better after that.

[playtowinthegame]

21 hours ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

How is it that the author says it's smart to do something he thinks is stupid? I'm confused.

That's like getting married. Smart stupidity.

[varjet]

If an NFL team drafted perfectly, at any given time they would have 28 drafted players under contract, plus maybe 4 more first round picks.    The actual number is much lower.  I believe the Jets have the lowest number (or close to it) of draft picks on their roster.  

For the rest, they use UDFAs, other team's drafted players that were cut and players they have to pay for.   The last one is what Glasgow should be.

The amount to be paid for Glasgow this year would about equivalent to what the Jets paid Winters four years ago.  

The Jets have many holes and some cap space.  I have no doubt that the Jets could probably a 3rd or 4th round draft pick who could play guard.  They will need to use a 2nd round pick for a center.   That draft pick may need an adjustment period.  The Jets will basically need to "overpay" to fill holes on the roster and then hope to draft well.  

My gut tells me that the right answer is to pay Glasgow what is necessary to sign him, have him also compete at Center, and use the draft picks this year for WR, CB, LB, EDGE, S, RB.  I think that Glasgow is more certain to fill the need than a draft pick, and Darnold is too important.  Let the defense experiment with draft picks.  

Oversign OL this year and FA, draft other positions this year and then focus on drafting the OL heavy going forward.  As to this year, I don't know.  

[Long Island Leprechaun]

9 hours ago, playtowinthegame said:

That's like getting married. Smart stupidity.

Sort of like having your eyes wide-shut...

[freestater]

I'd be perfectly fine with signing this guy. Right after we sign Conklin. 

[Jetsfan80]

23 minutes ago, freestater said:

I'd be perfectly fine with signing this guy. Right after we sign Conklin. 

Conklin won't be a Jet.  People need to stop assuming this.  Even if the Titans don't bring him back he'll have lots of options.

[section314]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Conklin won't be a Jet.  People need to stop assuming this.  Even if the Titans don't bring him back he'll have lots of options.

Packers?  Remember where their HC just came from.?

[Bruce Harper]

On 2/8/2020 at 1:21 PM, section314 said:

Sounds like this player is the Lion's version of Brian Winters.

Or that the author is a shill for the team.

[Bruce Harper]

On 2/9/2020 at 9:22 AM, Jet Nut said:

Using Faneca as an example of how the NFL has changed was a poor choice.  His situation is no different than others today.  Hes a OL at the endo f his career with a big price tag due to his status.  Nothing has changed, who believes its totally different today.

Incidentally, I don't think he will be coming out of retirement any time soon as he now runs marathons: