Jump to content

Prediction: Bitcoin Will Hit $100,000 by the end of 2021


Barry McCockinner
 Share

Recommended Posts

On 5/12/2022 at 12:28 PM, Barry McCockinner said:

I save in bitcoin, not cash. I usually just keep enough of a cash reserve for emergency spending or things coming up. It's just the way I view things but I see cash as the most risky asset over time. 

bitcoin swings are large and you have to be able to stomach that but over time it eats inflation. Haters love to pounce on it when it has a downswing. Kind of an odd phenomenon, but I guess it's because bitcoiners are annoying. People will take exception with the inflation thing because we're seeing really high inflation reported today and bitcoin is down but inflation has been going on a lot longer than this past year. 

Maybe I'm wrong on the whole thing, but it's a hill I will die on and I put my money where my mouth is.

The reason to invest your money is to protect against inflation.  Future earnings revenue on your cash is more likely to beat inflation than gold or Bitcoin.  It's also a productive use of cash.  Bitcoin like all risk assetts is going down because of inflation.  Once inflation is brought under control or the market believes it's peaked and going down risk assetts will go up.  Bitcoin may or may not go up?  Hard to know because nobody is buying Bitcoin because of future earnings, they're buying it because they believe it will have more demand than supply.  There is no future earnings story behind Bitcoin.   It's getting killed with other risk assetts as inflation goes up.   

Cash is not an investment.  It's necessary to operate your household.   Cash isn't meant to be a hedge against inflation.  Not sure why that's a reason to buy Bitcoin?  It is a reson to invest in inflation beating investments generally.  It's a reality that's always been the case and people have done it before Bitcoin existed.   While inflation is eating cash, the USD is going up in value against other currencies, Bitcoin and Gold.   Of course if the hated Fed does it's job you may actually benifit.  TBD...

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Now that we have hit the highest level of inflation in 40 years cash is outperforming almost all risk assets and crushing Bitcoin.

Risk assets perform in low inflation environments.  That doesn’t mean cash doesn’t lose value because of inflation.  It’s likely to lose less value than high risk assets with no future earnings.  See Bitcoin as an example.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, Biggs said:

Now that we have hit the highest level of inflation in 40 years cash is outperforming almost all risk assets and crushing Bitcoin.

Risk assets perform in low inflation environments.  That doesn’t mean cash doesn’t lose value because of inflation.  It’s likely to lose less value than high risk assets with no future earnings.  See Bitcoin as an example.  

When a stock declines in price, Investors take solace in the fact they own a business with cash flows and assets that have intrinsic value. 


Unfortunately the same cannot be said for Crypto or NFTs.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/14/2022 at 10:06 AM, Barry McCockinner said:

Hitler and the National Socialists trying to take over the world is why we had 2 world wars.

Investing in things you don't control to store your wealth is a game you can play and most need to play when the money is broken. Winning that game doesn't mean the money isn't broken.

The federal reserve is the cause of inflation & deflation, not gold.

If only we had a technology that would allow us to have a type of money that was scarce, easily transferable, easily divisible and not controlled by a central authority we could solve all the issues with our broken money.

 

I have to ask. With the way crypto is behaving, how is this an answer? Crypto is behaving like a Tech stock right now, except we don't see  product or earnings. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

I have to ask. With the way crypto is behaving, how is this an answer? Crypto is behaving like a Tech stock right now, except we don't see  product or earnings. 

Bitcoin, not crypto. Everything else is basically a worse version of fiat. Understand why we use money and what bitcoin solved.

Inflation didn't start in January. It's baked into the scam fiat system.

Over time, bitcoin will win. Over shorter time frames it will have large volatility. It always has.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Bitcoin, not crypto. Everything else is basically a worse version of fiat. Understand why we use money and what bitcoin solved.

Inflation didn't start in January. It's baked into the scam fiat system.

Over time, bitcoin will win. Over shorter time frames it will have large volatility. It always has.

 

Trying to separate bitcoin from crypto is not a very salient argument.  That's  like trying to separate Vaseline from petroleum jelly manufacturers.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, More Cowbell said:

Trying to separate bitcoin from crypto is not a very salient argument.  That's  like trying to separate Vaseline from petroleum jelly manufacturers.  

I know this is going to sound totally douchey, but the reason for this is that you do not understand why we use money and what bitcoin solved.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I know this is going to sound totally douchey, but the reason for this is that you do not understand why we use money and what bitcoin solved.

Also, I'm  very aware why we have money in coin and cash

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

What did bitcoin solve? And please just state why we have money so I know we're on the same page.

We have money so when your boss pays you for a weeks worth of work, he isn't  paying you with a new tire for your car. It replaced the barter system.  

As far as what Bitcoin has solved, I guess the simplest explanation is  Bitcoin isn't something you can replicate. The government  can't  just turn on the printing press and make more. There is a finite supply. This you would think would make it hedge against inflation the same way gold and silver is thought to be but it's  a pretty tough argument to make right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, More Cowbell said:

We have money so when your boss pays you for a weeks worth of work, he isn't  paying you with a new tire for your car. It replaced the barter system.  

As far as what Bitcoin has solved, I guess the simplest explanation is  Bitcoin isn't something you can replicate. The government  can't  just turn on the printing press and make more. There is a finite supply. This you would think would make it hedge against inflation the same way gold and silver is thought to be but it's  a pretty tough argument to make right now.

OK - cool.

So to take the barter part one step further, money is used to store economic value. The economic value I created for my employer is stored in the money that is paid to me. I can use that stored value to buy something else or save for buying something in the future. Fair?

Fast forward through history and many crappy types of money that weren't good at storing value for many reasons, most commonly due to lack of scarcity. We come to gold and the world essentially moves to a gold standard. Gold is great but not perfect. Still, the hardest and best money in human history to date. It's indestructible and scarce enough to not cause a massive supply increase due to it's value.

The two biggest problems with gold are that it is difficult and expensive to transfer and secure. Governments solve the transfer part by printing paper that can be redeemed for gold (fiat currency). Before long, governments realize they can abuse this and print more fiat then they have backed by gold. They abuse this, then this Keynes scammer comes along and gives them an excuse to print unlimited money and get off the gold standard all together. They gaslight everyone in the process blaming the problems caused by the government printing fiat not backed by gold on gold.

Since then (I am breezing through history and skipping things), the money supply of USD has been constantly increasing at different rates depending on how the economy was working. The main problem with this is that the economic value I created 50 years ago is not stored in the money I was given (inflation didn't start in January). It bled out due to the fiat scam. You can no longer save the economic value you created in money, which was it's original purpose. You have to gamble on the stock market or whatever investment you choose instead and hope that things you don't control go well. If you're smart enough to understand and follow markets to take advantage of this you will probably do well but most of us aren't financial people and have a different career as well as a family and a life. Basically, aint nobody got time or that. 

ANYWAY - bitcoin solves this. Bitcoin is harder than gold, easy to transfer and is secured by the largest decentralized network in the world.

But, when the fed interest rates go up it reduces the new money going into the economy, so it makes sense that some people would value bitcoin less when that starts happening. It doesn't change the real value proposition of bitcoin but there are a lot of speculators and wall street types that will pull there money at this point. I suspect this is a big part of why it's "behaving as a risk asset" as people have said. It also presently has a relatively small market cap so it is going to be more volatile. As the market cap increases it will become less volatile.

Over time, the USD supply will continue to go up as it always has and it will continue to lose value to bitcoin. In the short term, not so much. Stop back in 4 years.

@Jetscode1

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

OK - cool.

So to take the barter part one step further, money is used to store economic value. The economic value I created for my employer is stored in the money that is paid to me. I can that stored value to buy something else or save for buying something in the future. Fair?

Fast forward through history and many crappy types of money that weren't good at storing value for many reasons, most commonly due to lack of scarcity. We come to gold and the world essentially moves to a gold standard. Gold is great but not perfect. Still, the hardest and best money in human history to date. It's indestructible and scarce enough to not cause a massive supply increase due to it's value.

The two biggest problems with gold are that it is difficult and expensive to transfer and secure. Governments solve the transfer part by printing paper that can be redeemed for gold (fiat currency). Before long, governments realize they can abuse this and print more fiat then they have backed by gold. They abuse this, then this Keynes scammer comes along and gives them an excuse to print unlimited money and get off the gold standard all together. 

Since then, the money supply of USD has been constantly increasing at different rates depending on how the economy was working. The main problem with this is that the economic value I created 50 years ago is not stored in the money I was given (inflation didn't start in January). It bled out due to the fiat scam. You can no longer save the economic value you created in money, which was it's original purpose. You have to gamble on the stock market or whatever investment you choose instead and hope that things you don't control go well. If you're smart enough to understand and follow markets to take advantage of this you will probably do well but most of us aren't financial people and have a different career as well as a family and a life. Basically, aint nobody got time or that. 

ANYWAY - bitcoin solves this. Bitcoin is harder than gold, easy to transfer and is secured by the largest decentralized network in the world.

But, when the fed interest rates go up it reduces the new money going into the economy, so it makes sense that some people would value bitcoin less when that starts happening. It doesn't change the real value proposition of bitcoin but there are a lot of speculators and wall street types that will pull there money at this point. I suspect this is a big part of why it's "behaving as a risk asset" as people have said. It also presently has a relatively small market cap so it is going to be more volatile. As the market cap increases it will become less volatile.

Over time, the USD supply will continue to go up as it always has and it will continue to lose value to bitcoin. In the short term, not so much. Stop back in 4 years.

 

Ok, but do you not expect  dollar  to increase in value in 4 years? Do you also think I'm going to be able to buy my weekly groceries with bitcoin in the same time?. You're  representing it as a replacement  for money?

Also, the future of bitcoin as it is known today is cloudy at best. Look at what is happening in China where you can't  mine it anymore and there is talk of the government  of making it's  own coin. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

Ok, but do you not expect  dollar  to increase in value in 4 years? Do you also think I'm going to be able to buy my weekly groceries with bitcoin in the same time?. You're  representing it as a replacement  for money?

Also, the future of bitcoin as it is known today is cloudy at best. Look at what is happening in China where you can't  mine it anymore and there is talk of the government  of making it's  own coin. 

The dollar does not increase in value over time, it only goes down because they will continue to print more to manipulate the constantly inflating and deflating balloon they play with. They can increase it's value in the short term but that's only really to offset that they've caused it to decrease too quickly and eventually they have to manipulate the other direction and printing more money and debasement always happens. 

The largest point of sale systems in the world already have bitcoin integration using the lightning network. Retailers have to set it up but it is available to most of them. It actually would be a huge benefit to them to transact only using the lightning network integration because the fees are much lower than traditional credit card fees and the settlement is instant. They would have to set this up but when they do they can configure it to put whatever currency they want into their account upon settlement. So they can accept bitcoin and have it instantly settled in bitcoin, a stable coin, us dollars, yen, yaun, etc.

Bitcoin is the hardest money technology we've ever had and is a significant breakthrough for humanity. Governments won't easily give up their printing press but I think and hope the people will eventually win. If not, we end up with some central bank digital currency that governments can track and censor every and any transaction.

The future of the USD as the world reserve currency is pretty cloudy IMO, and rightfully so.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

The dollar does not increase in value over time, it only goes down because they will continue to print more to manipulate the constantly inflating and deflating balloon they play with. They can increase it's value in the short term but that's only really to offset that they've caused it to decrease too quickly and eventually they have to manipulate the other direction and printing more money and debasement always happens. 

The largest point of sale systems in the world already have bitcoin integration using the lightning network. Retailers have to set it up but it is available to most of them. It actually would be a huge benefit to them to transact only using the lightning network integration because the fees are much lower than traditional credit card fees and the settlement is instant. They would have to set this up but when they do they can configure it to put whatever currency they want into their account upon settlement. So they can accept bitcoin and have it instantly settled in bitcoin, a stable coin, us dollars, yen, yaun, etc.

Bitcoin is the hardest money technology we've ever had and is a significant breakthrough for humanity. Governments won't easily give up their printing press but I think and hope the people will eventually win. If not, we end up with some central bank digital currency that governments can track and censor every and any transaction.

The future of the USD as the world reserve currency is pretty cloudy IMO, and rightfully so.

You do know every year we take money out of circulation  as well as put new money in. Also, I would say right now biitcoin is nothing more than an investment tool. The swings it takes are too volatile  to consider it anything more than that. No matter how you look at bitcoin, here it is valued in dollars. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

You do know every year we take money out of circulation  as well as put new money in. Also, I would say right now biitcoin is nothing more than an investment tool. The swings it takes are too volatile  to consider it anything more than that. No matter how you look at bitcoin, here it is valued in dollars. 

The money supply has consistently gone up over time. There are some short term periods where it has gone down but they will always have to continue blowing up the bubble for the scam to continue. 

A lot of people would agree with you it's an investment tool. It's usually what draws people in. 

"Come for the greed. Stay for the revolution."

The real value proposition is it fixes money. Moving to the fiat standard was a backwards move, it's time to move forward.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

The money supply has consistently gone up over time. There are some short term periods where it has gone down but they will always have to continue blowing up the bubble for the scam to continue. 

A lot of people would agree with you it's an investment tool. It's usually what draws people in. 

"Come for the greed. Stay for the revolution."

The real value proposition is it fixes money. Moving to the fiat standard was a backwards move, it's time to move forward.

Until we start to see the dollar is worth X bitcoin instead of the other way around, Bitcoin is an investment tool. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, More Cowbell said:

Until we start to see the dollar is worth X bitcoin instead of the other way around, Bitcoin is an investment tool. 

Interesting.

I wonder what people in El Salvador using bitcoin for remittance payments think about that. I wonder what people in Turkey using bitcoin as a parachute while watching the Lira hyperinflate think about that.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Interesting.

I wonder what people in El Salvador using bitcoin for remittance payments think about that. I wonder what people in Turkey using bitcoin as a parachute while watching the Lira hyperinflate think about that.

 

Again, you a representing Bitcoin as a replacement  for the dollar. I don't  see it, even less now. How do you think the people accepting bitcoin as a remittance  payment feel this week vs. a month ago?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

Again, you a representing Bitcoin as a replacement  for the dollar. I don't  see it, even less now. How do you think the people accepting bitcoin as a remittance  payment feel this week vs. a month ago?

I guess that would depend on how they're accepting & using the money. If they're just spending it to pay bills and buy groceries they probably weren't effected much by the price change. If they're holding it for short term reserves & emergency spending that's not good. If they're saving for long term they shouldn't be worried, but might be.

Bitcoin is still in it's infancy as a currency. As the market cap increases the volatility will decrease and it will perform better as a currency.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I guess that would depend on how they're accepting & using the money. If they're just spending it to pay bills and buy groceries they probably weren't effected much by the price change. If they're holding it for short term reserves & emergency spending that's not good. If they're saving for long term they shouldn't be worried, but might be.

Bitcoin is still in it's infancy as a currency. As the market cap increases the volatility will decrease and it will perform better as a currency.

 

This is my opinion on what you stated. Governments exist because of power and money represents power. The ability to control a currency  as widely used as the dollar is emence power. The government is not going to give this up ever. This vision of a deregulated currency that is widely  accepted over the current monetary system is a far flung hope. What is not regulated today will be in the future if the system we currently use becomes threatened. There are no easy wins when it comes to currency.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

This is my opinion on what you stated. Governments exist because of power and money represents power. The ability to control a currency  as widely used as the dollar is emence power. The government is not going to give this up ever. This vision of a deregulated currency that is widely  accepted over the current monetary system is a far flung hope. What is not regulated today will be in the future if the system we currently use becomes threatened. There are no easy wins when it comes to currency.

100% agree it's not something that's going to be given up easily.

The US has an extraordinary amount of privilege as the world reserve currency. It has allowed them to fight never ending wars.

The world had to agree to this setup. They're already starting to decouple from it starting with Russia forcing countries to pay for oil in ruples which btw are now backed by gold which caused their value to restore.

Can you blame them really? The system is only as valuable as the credibility of the country in charge of the world reserve currency. If they can at any time decide that not only are a countries reserves no longer valid but that they can also no longer use the payment network how credible is that country? You can argue whether the reason for doing so was justified all you want but the point is that the fact that they can do this is a threat to other countries relying on the money.

The time for the US to print unlimited dollars will come to an end at some point. I don't know when that will be but it will happen. It happens to every reserve currency in history and we will not be different. When that does happen the value of the debased dollars will drop harder than any bitcoin drop we've ever witnessed. Something will replace it, and at this point in time the most likely thing is likely a Chinese currency. Everyone should be rooting for bitcoin over a Chinese central bank digital currency, trust me on that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

100% agree it's not something that's going to be given up easily.

The US has an extraordinary amount of privilege as the world reserve currency. It has allowed them to fight never ending wars.

The world had to agree to this setup. They're already starting to decouple from it starting with Russia forcing countries to pay for oil in ruples which btw are now backed by gold which caused their value to restore.

Can you blame them really? The system is only as valuable as the credibility of the country in charge of the world reserve currency. If they can at any time decide that not only are a countries reserves no longer valid but that they can also no longer use the payment network how credible is that country? You can argue whether the reason for doing so was justified all you want but the point is that the fact that they can do this is a threat to other countries relying on the money.

The time for the US to print unlimited dollars will come to an end at some point. I don't know when that will be but it will happen. It happens to every reserve currency in history and we will not be different. When that does happen the value of the debased dollars will drop harder than any bitcoin drop we've ever witnessed. Something will replace it, and at this point in time the most likely thing is likely a Chinese currency. Everyone should be rooting for bitcoin over a Chinese central bank digital currency, trust me on that.

First off the Russians are demanding payment in Ruples because there money has nearly no value in the world market and they are trying to proprietary up, and I don't  think any country has agreed to do this. As far as day the US no longer has control over it's  money, it will be around the same time the US ceases to exist. I mean I seriously doubt we will ever see a $500 happy meal in our lifetime. When that happens, it won't  matter to most of us whose  currency we are using. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

First off the Russians are demanding payment in Ruples because there money has nearly no value in the world market and they are trying to proprietary up, and I don't  think any country has agreed to do this. As far as day the US no longer has control over it's  money, it will be around the same time the US ceases to exist. I mean I seriously doubt we will ever see a $500 happy meal in our lifetime. When that happens, it won't  matter to most of us whose  currency we are using. 

Did Great Britain or France cease to exist when they lost control over the world reserve currency?

I don't get where you're going with a $500 happy meal.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Did Great Britain or France cease to exist when they lost control over the world reserve currency?

I don't get where you're going with a $500 happy meal.

 

We are probably not understanding  each other. Probably  me not understanding you which is probably  my fault as I am doing about 10 things at once right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

20 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

The world had to agree to this setup. They're already starting to decouple from it starting with Russia forcing countries to pay for oil in ruples which btw are now backed by gold which caused their value to restore.

Can you blame them really? The system is only as valuable as the credibility of the country in charge of the world reserve currency. If they can at any time decide that not only are a countries reserves no longer valid but that they can also no longer use the payment network how credible is that country? You can argue whether the reason for doing so was justified all you want but the point is that the fact that they can do this is a threat to other countries relying on the money.

 

Yes you can blame the Russians.  Of course they want to destroy the rules based trading system.  They want to colonize their neighbors and take their wealth and power of self determination at the barell of a gun.    

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Biggs said:

 

Yes you can blame the Russians.  Of course they want to destroy the rules based trading system.  They want to colonize their neighbors and take their wealth and power of self determination at the barell of a gun.    

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 5 weeks later...
On 4/11/2022 at 8:29 AM, Biggs said:

Inflation has likely peaked.  If you believe Bitcoin is a hedge on inflation it's likely a bad bet.  If you believe it's simply a high risk assett, low inflation will raise the price.  A strong dollar is bad for high risk stocks.   The war and the fed being behind the curve on inflation and likely tightening when inflation is already in the rear view mirror will be bad for the economy and demand which will lower inflation dramatically and good for risk assetts.   The dollar is going up and commodities including oil are likely to come down despite the war.

EDIT: I didn't realize I was replying to a post that was 2 months old.  Possibly Biggs no longer agrees with his comment that "Inflation has likely peaked".

 

What makes you think inflation has likely peaked?  I think it's going to get a lot worse (due to all the money printing). 

What makes you think the Fed will actually "tighten"?  They talk about the possibility of tightening but how come they never do it?  When it comes to easing, they're very quick to cut rates and print money.  When it comes to tightening though, it's almost always talk about 25 basis points (which means 1/4 of a 1%.  In other words, 0.25%) and usually they say "at the next meeting" or "by (some time a few months out in the future)".  Admittedly I do think there will be a 50 basis point hike today and there is talk of larger ones.  But that's only because things are getting out of control.

And what is this talk about "when inflation is already in the rear view mirror".  We are nowhere (and I mean NOWHERE) close to that.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Biggs said:

Todays lesson boys and girls.   What happens to assets including the USD when the federal reserve reduces liquidity to fight inflation?

ANSWER: The Fed won't fight inflation.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...