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Prediction: Bitcoin Will Hit $100,000 by the end of 2021


Barry McCockinner
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On 5/15/2022 at 12:18 PM, More Cowbell said:

I seriously doubt we will ever see a $500 happy meal in our lifetime

In hyperinflation we would.  And there is a chance of that happening here.

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On 5/16/2022 at 8:10 AM, Biggs said:

Yes you can blame the Russians.  Of course they want to destroy the rules based trading system.  They want to colonize their neighbors and take their wealth and power of self determination at the barell of a gun.  

Maybe turn off CNN?

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2 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

These little wuss rate hikes are crushing the markets. Imagine what would happen if they tried doing what Volker did?

The only way I can see that happening is if the Fed is forced into it (e.g. inflation gets way out of control).  I think there's a very good chance of it happening, unfortunately.

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2 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

Wait a.minute. what do you think is happening in Ukraine?  A special military operation?

My comment was related to the comment below

 

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Yes you can blame the Russians.  Of course they want to destroy the rules based trading system.  They want to colonize their neighbors and take their wealth and power of self determination at the barell of a gun.  

 

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8 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

In hyperinflation we would.  And there is a chance of that happening here.

for some reason, people think things cant happen here. weimar germany and zimbabwe are way OVER  THERE. 

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8 hours ago, ylekram said:

for some reason, people think things cant happen here. weimar germany and zimbabwe are way OVER  THERE. 

Of course it can happen.  So can a massive deflation and depression happen.  There are 2 sides to the Bitcoin.  

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17 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

EDIT: I didn't realize I was replying to a post that was 2 months old.  Possibly Biggs no longer agrees with his comment that "Inflation has likely peaked".

 

What makes you think inflation has likely peaked?  I think it's going to get a lot worse (due to all the money printing). 

What makes you think the Fed will actually "tighten"?  They talk about the possibility of tightening but how come they never do it?  When it comes to easing, they're very quick to cut rates and print money.  When it comes to tightening though, it's almost always talk about 25 basis points (which means 1/4 of a 1%.  In other words, 0.25%) and usually they say "at the next meeting" or "by (some time a few months out in the future)".  Admittedly I do think there will be a 50 basis point hike today and there is talk of larger ones.  But that's only because things are getting out of control.

And what is this talk about "when inflation is already in the rear view mirror".  We are nowhere (and I mean NOWHERE) close to that.  

Here's why I think inflation is peaking.  I see shipping rates coming down substantially despite fuel prices surging.  Home building is crashing and lumber prices are failing amazingly fast.   The consumer is being squeezed by food and energy prices which is destroying demand for cars and other highe priced goods that have been driving inflation.  The Fed is reducing liquidity at a very fast rate.   Lots of job openings are no longer job openings there paper listings and won't be filled.  

If Biden actually lifts the tariffs on China the supply chain that has been moved to India, Vietnam and other countries will be under huge price pressure.

If you don't think liquidity is coming out of the sytem you haven't been paying attention.  The fed is being led higher by the bond market.   They have to raise and reduce their balance sheet.  They will they can't keep failing behind the Bond market.  

There is no control over the war but it's pretty clear that the will to defeat the  Russians outside of Ukraine is allready declining.   Food and energy prices could come down very fast with a peace treaty and global demand destruction led by central banks taking liquidity out of the system.  

The narrative that the fed will only make money easy is really dumb.  The fed is just as likely to crash the economy by over doing it.  The economy is cyclical.  If you think the fed is incompetent in only one direction I think you should continue to buy gold, soup, bomb shelters and bitcoin.  

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4 minutes ago, Biggs said:

If you don't think liquidity is coming out of the sytem you haven't been paying attention.  The fed is being led higher by the bond market.   They have to raise and reduce their balance sheet.  They will.

How are they going to raise rates above the rate of inflation without defaulting on the national debt (which is now over $30.5T)?

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1 minute ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

How are they going to raise rates above the rate of inflation without defaulting on the national debt (which is now over $30.5T)?

Why wouldn't you buy a US bond that's paying over the rate of inflation that's backed by the US government?  The question is why are people buying it when it's paying less?  Apparetly the USD backed by the US government has real value. 

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40 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Why wouldn't you buy a US bond that's paying over the rate of inflation that's backed by the US government?  The question is why are people buying it when it's paying less?  Apparetly the USD backed by the US government has real value. 

Obviously the dollar has value but it doesn't store value very well. Beads, shells & rai stones used to have value too. The whole point of money is to store and transfer value.

The dollar fails the first test because it isn't scarce and the feds have continuously debased it's value by increasing supply. At least with beads, shells & rai stones you had to put in real work to increase the supply. The feds push a button on a computer. It is the softest money of all time.

Over the short term, at times, they will strengthen the value of the dollar but when you zoom out it's a steep downward slope.

It's a scam.

Now you'll tell me I need to invest to store value, which you can do, but doesn't change the fact that the dollar fails this property of money. People shouldn't need to gamble on the stock market to maintain the value they've earned.

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1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Obviously the dollar has value but it doesn't store value very well. Beads, shells & rai stones used to have value too. The whole point of money is to store and transfer value.

The dollar fails the first test because it isn't scarce and the feds have continuously debased it's value by increasing supply. It is the softest money of all time.

Over the short term, at times, they will strengthen the value of the dollar but when you zoom out it's a steep downward slope.

It's a scam.

Now you'll tell me I need to invest to store value, which you can do, but doesn't change the fact that the dollar fails this property of money. People shouldn't need to gamble on the stock market to maintain the value they've earned.

It's not a scam.  The dolllar is doing what it's suppossed to do.  It allows people to run their households and daily lives and because of modest inflation increases encourages future investment into more dollars latter.  Inflating the dollar encourages productive investment.

Bitcoin isn't a productive investment.  It's a ponzi scheme.

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2 hours ago, Biggs said:

Why wouldn't you buy a US bond that's paying over the rate of inflation that's backed by the US government?  The question is why are people buying it when it's paying less?  Apparetly the USD backed by the US government has real value. 

Because it's not paying over the rate of inflation?  And because I expect inflation to continue to rise?

And when countries like Japan and China have financial issues, they can choose to not roll over their trillion dollars (each) worth of US bonds.  If the US loses $2T of money loaned from those governments, that's another shortfall that the Fed is going to have to print (which will drive prices even further up).  

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1 hour ago, Biggs said:

It's not a scam.  The dolllar is doing what it's suppossed to do.  It allows people to run their households and daily lives and because of modest inflation increases encourages future investment into more dollars latter.  Inflating the dollar encourages productive investment.

Bitcoin isn't a productive investment.  It's a ponzi scheme.

Every time they print more dollars they're devaluing existing dollars.  When our money was backed by gold they couldn't print money unless they mined more gold.  That limited government spending.  Since Nixon took us off the gold standard our money has been losing value at an increasing rate.  At some point we're going to pay the price with major inflation, possibly hyperinflation.

I agree that Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme. 

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6 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Because it's not paying over the rate of inflation?  And because I expect inflation to continue to rise?  

Good reason not to buy bonds.  Bonds are not a hedge against inflation.  Inflation protected bonds are.  

The reason to buy longer duration bonds now is if you believe we are going into a recession and rates are near the peak.  If that's the case 10 and 30 year bonds which aren't callable will be paying above the rate of inflation very soon and going up in cash value.  

A balanced portfolio should have some bonds to give you income and protect against  failing rates.  Some Inflation protected bonds to protect against inflation.  Real estate that pays rent and goes up in value with inflation and stocks which have future earning power.

Bitcoin isn't needed to balance your portfolio.  You can invest in future tech and emerging markets to add risk and potential large rewards on potential real earnings.  

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9 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Good reason not to buy bonds.  Bonds are not a hedge against inflation.  Inflation protected bonds are.  

The reason to buy longer duration bonds now is if you believe we are going into a recession and rates are near the peak.  If that's the case 10 and 30 year bonds which aren't callable will be paying above the rate of inflation very soon and going up in cash value.  

A balanced portfolio should have some bonds to give you income and protect against  failing rates.  Some Inflation protected bonds to protect against inflation.  Real estate that pays rent and goes up in value with inflation and stocks which have future earning power.

Bitcoin isn't needed to balance your portfolio.  You can invest in future tech and emerging markets to add risk and potential large rewards on potential real earnings.  

Inflation protected bonds sound good in theory except what government tells the truth about inflation?

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The reason to buy longer duration bonds now is if you believe we are going into a recession and rates are near the peak.  If that's the case 10 and 30 year bonds which aren't callable will be paying above the rate of inflation very soon and going up in cash value.  

Why should I tie myself into longer duration bonds when they don't keep up with inflation right now and I expect inflation to get a lot worse?  Why not invest in a safe company (e.g. utility) in a foreign country that has a stronger currency than the US (not hard to find due to the US' horrific monetary policy) that pays dividends in that foreign currency?

 

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A balanced portfolio should have some bonds to give you income and protect against  failing rates.  Some Inflation protected bonds to protect against inflation.  Real estate that pays rent and goes up in value with inflation and stocks which have future earning power.

With interest rates rising, do you expect real estate to continue to go up in value?  I'm seeing another 2008 here.  And how is the government  going to bail people out this time when interest rates are already so low and they've already printed trillions to the point where we're seeing gas at over $5 per gallon and food prices getting a lot more expensive?

 

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8 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Why should I tie myself into longer duration bonds when they don't keep up with inflation right now and I expect inflation to get a lot worse?  Why not invest in a safe company (e.g. utility) in a foreign country that has a stronger currency than the US (not hard to find due to the US' horrific monetary policy) that pays dividends in that foreign currency?

 

If you're married, why not go ahead and buy $20,000.00 in I-Bonds right now.  9.6% is the return, and will match inflation every 6 months.  After 5 years, there is no penalty for withdrawal, and after 1 year there is only a 3 month penalty for withdrawal.  When 2023 begins, you can buy another $20K.

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2 hours ago, Biggs said:

It's not a scam.  The dolllar is doing what it's suppossed to do.  It allows people to run their households and daily lives and because of modest inflation increases encourages future investment into more dollars latter.  Inflating the dollar encourages productive investment.

Bitcoin isn't a productive investment.  It's a ponzi scheme.

Money isn't supposed to encourage productive investment. It's supposed to store and transfer value. That's it. Unbacked fiat currency is a scam that allows governments to engage in unlimited wars.

Ponzi schemes are investment schemes promising profits to investors with little risk. No one is promising profits on bitcoin. There are no profits. No one runs bitcoin. Bitcoin is not a ponzi.

Bitcoin is digital gold. It's better than gold because it's easier to transfer, secure and it's even harder in that it is a finite supply whereas gold will continue to be mined throughout history. The problem gold ran into as money is that it's difficult to transfer and secure. That's why banks started dealing in paper. Then governments did the same and hoodwinked everyone by rug pulling the gold and pretending they had something better. Statists agree.

Now we have solved the problems of gold as money and don't require any central banker to control and manipulate things. It's trustless, uncensored hard money that is still in price discovery. It's a gift to humanity.

 

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1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Money isn't supposed to encourage productive investment. It's supposed to store and transfer value. That's it. Unbacked fiat currency is a scam that allows governments to engage in unlimited wars.

Ponzi schemes are investment schemes promising profits to investors with little risk. No one is promising profits on bitcoin. There are no profits. No one runs bitcoin. Bitcoin is not a ponzi.

Bitcoin is digital gold. It's better than gold because it's easier to transfer, secure and it's even harder in that it is a finite supply whereas gold will continue to be mined throughout history. The problem gold ran into as money is that it's difficult to transfer and secure. That's why banks started dealing in paper. Then governments did the same and hoodwinked everyone by rug pulling the gold and pretending they had something better. Statists agree.

Now we have solved the problems of gold as money and don't require any central banker to control and manipulate things. It's trustless, uncensored hard money that is still in price discovery. It's a gift to humanity.

 

You do realize there is a long history of private currency.  It didn't end well. 

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10 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

A statist, a gold bug and a bitcoiner walk into a bar.

I don't know a good end to this joke but I feel this is where we are in this thread. @TuscanyTile2 will see the light one day, I'm confident of that. @Biggs probably ngmi.

I'll see the light in relation to Bitcoin?  Maybe if it was a gold backed crypto.  But right now BTC is backed by nothing and it has no intrinsic value (at least that I can see).  I don't see how it can pass as anything other than fiat (which is what got us into trouble in the first place).

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44 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I'll see the light in relation to Bitcoin?  Maybe if it was a gold backed crypto.  But right now BTC is backed by nothing and it has no intrinsic value (at least that I can see).  I don't see how it can pass as anything other than fiat (which is what got us into trouble in the first place).

yes, in relation to bitcoin.

Gold isn't backed by anything either. It has the best properties for money in the physical world and that's why it's valuable. It's "intrinsic value" of being used in jewelry and computers or whatever isn't what makes it valuable. It's the fact that it's scarce, indestructible and divisible that makes it excellent money.

bitcoin has all the properties that makes gold valuable except it's much easier to transfer and secure the value stored in it. We can instantly transfer billions in value across the globe in seconds for minimal cost without the need for a trusted third party and no one can censor it.

 

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13 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

yes, in relation to bitcoin.

Gold isn't backed by anything either. It has the best properties for money in the physical world and that's why it's valuable. It's "intrinsic value" of being used in jewelry and computers or whatever isn't what makes it valuable. It's the fact that it's scarce, indestructible and divisible that makes it excellent money.

bitcoin has all the properties that makes gold valuable except it's much easier to transfer and secure the value stored in it. We can instantly transfer billions in value across the globe in seconds for minimal cost without the need for a trusted third party and no one can censor it.

 

Gold doesn't need to be backed by anything.  It has intrinsic value.   

Bitcoin has no intrinsic value (it's fiat).  It needs something (like gold) to back it up in order to give it value.

The US dollar is also fiat.  It used to be backed up by gold and the economy was a lot more stable when that was the case.  Nixon took us off the gold standard, however, and things have gone haywire since.  I think we're almost at the end of that rope before we really start feeling the consequences.

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15 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Gold doesn't need to be backed by anything.  It has intrinsic value.   

Bitcoin has no intrinsic value (it's fiat).  It needs something (like gold) to back it up in order to give it value.

The US dollar is also fiat.  It used to be backed up by gold and the economy was a lot more stable when that was the case.  Nixon took us off the gold standard, however, and things have gone haywire since.  I think we're almost at the end of that rope before we really start feeling the consequences.

What is money? What is the purpose of money? What properties make good money?

You're getting stuck on intrinsic value (real world use as you've described to me) but that is not what makes gold good money. Lumber has more real world use than gold but it's not good money.

bitcoin is not fiat. It cannot and is not issued by a central authority and it has a finite supply.

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4 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Every time they print more dollars they're devaluing existing dollars.  When our money was backed by gold they couldn't print money unless they mined more gold.  That limited government spending.  Since Nixon took us off the gold standard our money has been losing value at an increasing rate.  At some point we're going to pay the price with major inflation, possibly hyperinflation.

I agree that Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme. 

Limiting government spending isn't necessarily a good thing.  

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57 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Limiting government spending isn't necessarily a good thing.  

Of course it is.  Who do you trust to spend the money you earn more judiciously?  You or the government?  

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2 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Of course it is.  Who do you trust to spend the money you earn more judiciously?  You or the government?  

I like driving on roads.  I like electricity, zoning, schools, traveling safely, having clean water brought right to my house.  Access to health care.  Protection from foreign invaders.   Police, fire, garbage collection, law, etc., etc., etc.

Don't think I could earn a living without a structure in place.  Probably have to have a bunch of kids to plow the back 40.  

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1 hour ago, Biggs said:

I like driving on roads.  I like electricity, zoning, schools, traveling safely, having clean water brought right to my house.  Access to health care.  Protection from foreign invaders.   Police, fire, garbage collection, law, etc., etc., etc.

Don't think I could earn a living without a structure in place.  Probably have to have a bunch of kids to plow the back 40.  

All of it would and could be done better by the free market but let's not get into that discussion on this forum.

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2 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

All of it would and could be done better by the free market but let's not get into that discussion on this forum.

This is the last thing I want to say about this.  The NY Jets are a private corporation. 

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