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Prediction: Bitcoin Will Hit $100,000 by the end of 2021


Barry McCockinner
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3 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Who ever said it was backed by real gold? No one.

Of course it's not the same thing, it's better than gold. It has all of the properties of gold that make it good money but not the problems. Most notably, bitcoin is easily divisible & transferable. There's no need to have a centralized authority print paper on top of it which is where the problems with gold-backed fiat came in and how governments scammed people into non-gold backed fiat.

BTC is better than gold?!  LMAO!

  

3 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Gold is backed by nothing of value. The value of gold is that it is the best commodity in the physical world for being good money because it has the following properties.

  • scarcity
  • divisibility
  • portability
  • durability
  • uniformity (resistance to counterfeiting)

Bitcoin has all of these properties but is also easier to transfer and secure. So we don't need banks to handle that, thank Satoshi. It is actually also better at scarcity but that's beside the point.

Gold doesn't need to be "backed up" by anything.  Gold has intrinsic value.  That's why gold is used to back up fiat (like the USD).

Meanwhile, BTC has no intrinsic value whatsoever.

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11 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

BTC is better than gold?!  LMAO!

  

Gold doesn't need to be "backed up" by anything.  Gold has intrinsic value.  That's why gold is used to back up fiat (like the USD).

Meanwhile, BTC has no intrinsic value whatsoever.

bitcoin has better properties of money than gold, yes.

gold isn't good money because you use it in computers and jewelry. it's good money because it has the right properties to accomplish the goals of storing and transferring value.

the reason the gold standard failed is because it's not easily transferred and secured over large distances. that weakness allowed centralized entities to take advantage when they printed paper that was supposedly all backed by gold. bitcoin fixes this.

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21 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

BTC is better than gold?!  LMAO!

  

Gold doesn't need to be "backed up" by anything.  Gold has intrinsic value.  That's why gold is used to back up fiat (like the USD).

Meanwhile, BTC has no intrinsic value whatsoever.

You never actually hear this in a discussion about bitcoin.  The US government is the largest holder of gold reserves in the world by a very large margin.  The USD is backed by the US government which includes gold reserves, strategic oil reserves along with a ton of other stockpiled hard assetts and assetts that are in the ground on federally owned land that can be brought out of the ground.  Bitcoin is backed by absolutely nothing other than day trader volume.

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11 minutes ago, Biggs said:

You never actually hear this in a discussion about bitcoin.  The US government is the largest holder of gold reserves in the world by a very large margin.  The USD is backed by the US government which includes gold reserves, strategic oil reserves along with a ton of other stockpiled hard assetts and assetts that are in the ground on federally owned land that can be brought out of the ground.  Bitcoin is backed by absolutely nothing other than day trader volume.

can I trade my dollars for those assets or nah?

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4 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

can I trade my dollars for those assets or nah?

You don't have to just like you didn't have to trade your dollars for gold when they were backed by gold.  

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46 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

bitcoin has better properties of money than gold, yes.

gold isn't good money because you use it in computers and jewelry. it's good money because it has the right properties to accomplish the goals of storing and transferring value.

the reason the gold standard failed is because it's not easily transferred and secured over large distances. that weakness allowed centralized entities to take advantage when they printed paper that was supposedly all backed by gold. bitcoin fixes this.

Gold's use in computers, jewelry, etc gives it intrinsic value.

The gold standard didn't fail.  It worked very well, like it has for thousands of years.  Government doesn't want to be restrained by it though, so they took us off it in 1971.  51 years later the country has turned into a debt-ridden/inflation wracked disaster.

If you want to argue that you can use digital currency backed by gold then it could potentially work.  But digital currency by itself isn't going to solve anything.

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13 minutes ago, Biggs said:

You don't have to just like you didn't have to trade your dollars for gold when they were backed by gold.  

I know I don't have to. I asked if I could. Because if dollars are truly backed by these things I would be able to turn them in for what they're backed for. That's the problem - they didn't maintain the backing even when it was supposedly backed by gold. It's not backed by anything now and even if it was that backing is continually debased except during short periods of QT.

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3 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Gold's use in computers, jewelry, etc gives it intrinsic value.

The gold standard didn't fail.  It worked very well, like it has for thousands of years.  Government doesn't want to be restrained by it though, so they took us off it in 1971.  51 years later the country has turned into a debt-ridden/inflation wracked disaster.

If you want to argue that you can use digital currency backed by gold then it could potentially work.  But digital currency by itself isn't going to solve anything.

you don't understand why gold is good money.

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7 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Gold's use in computers, jewelry, etc gives it intrinsic value.

The gold standard didn't fail.  It worked very well, like it has for thousands of years.  Government doesn't want to be restrained by it though, so they took us off it in 1971.  51 years later the country has turned into a debt-ridden/inflation wracked disaster.

If you want to argue that you can use digital currency backed by gold then it could potentially work.  But digital currency by itself isn't going to solve anything.

Gold not being easily transferrable over large distances left it vulnerable to the political takeover that happened. Gold was the hardest and best money to ever exist and it was overtaken by the softest money to ever exist. 

The lack of ability to easily and cheaply transfer gold over large distances still exists and so it is still needing to have a paper backing to be a realistic money in a global economy. Paper backing lead to the inevitable corruption and failure of the gold standard.

If you could solve the transferability issue and requirement of central entities to control paper backed gold it would be a viable thing. You can't and it is therefore not viable imo. Thankfully we have bitcoin.

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11 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

We agree gold is much better than the BS fiat standard we're on now. How would you solve the weakness gold has that lead to scummy central banker created paper backed gold in the first place? 

I don't know how to solve that.  I'm not sure there is a solution.  Unfortunately, I think there's going to be a major market crash.  Potentially that's what will bring the world back to its senses, meaning back to the gold standard.

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1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I know I don't have to. I asked if I could. Because if dollars are truly backed by these things I would be able to turn them in for what they're backed for. That's the problem - they didn't maintain the backing even when it was supposedly backed by gold. It's not backed by anything now and even if it was that backing is continually debased except during short periods of QT.

What happens when you go to sell Bitcoin in a low liquidity sinking market with relatively few buyers and lots of sellers.   I don't think you get 20K in gold.  

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22 minutes ago, Biggs said:

What happens when you go to sell Bitcoin in a low liquidity sinking market with relatively few buyers and lots of sellers.   I don't think you get 20K in gold.  

No one is making claims bitcoin is backed by anything. When we're on a bitcoin standard 1 bitcoin = 1 bitcoin and no one can ever debase our money.

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13 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

No one is making claims bitcoin is backed by anything. When we're on a bitcoin standard 1 bitcoin = 1 bitcoin and no one can ever debase our money.

One dog sh*t equals one dog sh*t.  I'm rich. 

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5 hours ago, Biggs said:

One dog sh*t equals one dog sh*t.  I'm rich. 

dogsh*t does well being divisible and portable but really stinks when it comes to scarcity, durability and uniformity. So, about the same as the US dollar although the dollar does admittedly have some advantages. I would say the USD is closer to dogsh*t than gold or bitcoin when it comes to meeting the qualities of good money.

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23 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

The gold standard didn't fail.  It worked very well, like it has for thousands of years.  Government doesn't want to be restrained by it though, so they took us off it in 1971.  51 years later the country has turned into a debt-ridden/inflation wracked disaster.

this is revisionist / inaccurate history 

the Gold standard did not work very well in fact there were boom/bust recessions every 2-5 years. There were also depressions. the boom bust cycle was thought to be baked into capitalism

There were 32 recessions/panics between 1785 and the Great Depression. There were also three depressions: in 1807, 1873 and 1920. That's a major event every 4 years for those keeping track at home. 

the federal reserve was created in 1913 and Franklin D Roosevelt took the country off the gold standard in 1933. Nixon abandoned the last vestiges in 1971 but the country had not been on a true gold standard for decades. 

Why? because you can't use Keynesian tools to print more gold in times of trouble. or you can't delete the gold that's out there in times of hot velocity. the supply of money is out of the hands of the government. and that's actually bad. 

since the US Has been off the gold standard, recessions happen less frequently- there has been 13 recessions in about 90 years (one every 7 years) and not been another depression since 1930. 

had we been on the gold standard in 2008, the collapse would have certainly become another great depression (massive bank failures/auto industry failing without bailout)

currencies need to be managed and  it turns out tying one's entire economic system to a mineral that grubby overalls-wearers drag out of the ground is not a great model and there's actual history to prove this 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States

 

and, just for fun, if we imagine a world where the US is brought back to the gold standard, there would be trillions of dollars that would have be deleted/destroyed. Because there isn't enough gold to support the current economy. It would be a massive destruction of wealth. 

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On 6/22/2022 at 4:08 PM, Barry McCockinner said:

We agree gold is much better than the BS fiat standard we're on now. How would you solve the weakness gold has that lead to scummy central banker created paper backed gold in the first place? 

 

Now that inflation has peaked, commodities are tanking and the Fed is continuing to drain liquidity out of the system because they are behind the curve would you buy gold as a hedge against a recession and failing long rates?
 

 

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16 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Now that inflation has peaked, commodities are tanking and the Fed is continuing to drain liquidity out of the system because they are behind the curve would you buy gold as a hedge against a recession and failing long rates?
 

 

We will see if inflation has peaked.

I heard the current administration is pushing to "cancel" student loan debt after it's most recent gas tax holiday, how does that jibe with the liquidity draining? Seems conflicting and odd to me.

I'm not a trader but if I was I imagine holding the dollar during these short periods of tightening and turning them back into hard assets when the spigot opens back up would be the play.

this is one of the problems with Keynesian economics. As a dope working on a living wage I have no place to save the value I've earned. I'm told to "invest" but I don't have the expertise or time to obtain that expertise in order to make good decisions. They literally want higher unemployment as part of a liquidity drain. Inflating and deflating the balloon hurts the working class and helps those closest to the spigot.

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4 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

We will see if inflation has peaked.

I heard the current administration is pushing to "cancel" student loan debt after it's most recent gas tax holiday, how does that jibe with the liquidity draining? Seems conflicting and odd to me.

I'm not a trader but if I was I imagine holding the dollar during these short periods of tightening and turning them back into hard assets when the spigot opens back up would be the play.

this is one of the problems with Keynesian economics. As a dope working on a living wage I have no place to save the value I've earned. I'm told to "invest" but I don't have the expertise or time to obtain that expertise in order to make good decisions. They literally want higher unemployment as part of a liquidity drain. Inflating and deflating the balloon hurts the working class and helps those closest to the spigot.

Keynes would roll in his grave. This is socialism not Keynesian in any manner.  

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On 6/22/2022 at 3:18 PM, Barry McCockinner said:

you don't understand why gold is good money.

Which is exactly why Bitcoin isn't.   Gold prices are relatively stable.  Bitcoin goes up when inflation is low and drops like a stone when the threat of inflation is real.

Bitcoin is simply a high risk assett backed by nothing other than sentiment.  Check gold price last 6 months.  Incredibly stable.  Bitcoin has been crushed.  

Now that inflation is crushed Bitcoin is recovering and gold is very slightly down relative to other hard assetts which have been crushed.

Bitcoin reacts like a penny stock not like digital gold because it isn't digital gold.

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32 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Which is exactly why Bitcoin isn't.   Gold prices are relatively stable.  Bitcoin goes up when inflation is low and drops like a stone when the threat of inflation is real.

Bitcoin is simply a high risk assett backed by nothing other than sentiment.  Check gold price last 6 months.  Incredibly stable.  Bitcoin has been crushed.  

Now that inflation is crushed Bitcoin is recovering and gold is very slightly down relative to other hard assetts which have been crushed.

Bitcoin reacts like a penny stock not like digital gold because it isn't digital gold.

You are correct it is not good money today because of the volatility. Bitcoin has a relatively tiny market cap and is still in price discovery mode. As it matures and becomes a bigger market cap the price will stabilize and become less volatile. 

Bitcoin has crushed gold (and everything else) on the longer time frames though.

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