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Prediction: Bitcoin Will Hit $100,000 by the end of 2021


Barry McCockinner
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1 hour ago, southparkcpa said:

I rode it to 70 from $11.  Now its at 20.  I cashed out half at about $50 so I am WAY ahead but it is fairly volatile.

I remember you did well on it. The tech sounds very promising. btw, thanks for triggering bitcoin to finally start moving the right direction.

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1 hour ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Can you start an investment forum?  I could use a few ~4x returns.  :)

Its still a fun ride. I put in about 25K, it went to 140K in 4 months. I cashed out  about 50K worth. Now its house money.   @Barry McCockinner is being humble.  He asked me to look at it. So, fukk it, I bought it. Still own about 40K worth, I think.  

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On 2/4/2022 at 6:35 AM, southparkcpa said:

Thats awesome…..  i am laughing  so hard.  A basket of well enveloped, dividend paying stocks never goes out of style.    NEVER will i buy cripto.  I own real estate, well rounded stock portfolio, and the most important asset to have…..  a skill set that brings in above average income.  Did I mention my NY Jets card collection???? 😁

Yes, you’re doing what you’re doing when you have a lot of money. For people who have little they can’t really play that game. Once you’re rich it’s easy staying rich. A lot of people are/have been able to become rich starting w very little simply through crypto. You can through the stock market but it’s a lot harder imo. And yeah, if you’re able to play the real estate game you’re basically baller status. *Hats off

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7 hours ago, Maxman said:

I still can't believe how much crypto swings up and down. There has to be people killing it on these dips.

Yeah, it's just tough to know if it's going to go down, or shoot up and stay up.

I am not the smart on that.

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7 hours ago, Maxman said:

I still can't believe how much crypto swings up and down. There has to be people killing it on these dips.

One of the main drivers of the swings these days are the longs and shorts getting liquidated. I'm not smart enough to play that game - it's easier to just consistently stack and wait for the world to catch up.

Jack Mallers announced at the bitcoin conference Thursday that his company (strike) integrated bitcoin purchases into some of the worlds largest POS systems. The retailers receive whatever money they want (usd, yen, yuan, bitcoin, etc) instantly settled over the lightning network. Try that with gold.. That's not important for someone just trying to invest and make money on bitcoin, but it's a huge step for bitcoin adoption. You can now basically live off bitcoin without ever needing to KYC with anyone. No government, corporation or other third party can interfere with you using bitcoin.

Bitcoin will save us from the broken fiat system. 

Purchasing-Power-of-the-U.S.-Dollar-Over

 

 

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55 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

One of the main drivers of the swings these days are the longs and shorts getting liquidated. I'm not smart enough to play that game - it's easier to just consistently stack and wait for the world to catch up.

Jack Mallers announced at the bitcoin conference Thursday that his company (strike) integrated bitcoin purchases into some of the worlds largest POS systems. The retailers receive whatever money they want (usd, yen, yuan, bitcoin, etc) instantly settled over the lightning network. Try that with gold.. That's not important for someone just trying to invest and make money on bitcoin, but it's a huge step for bitcoin adoption. You can now basically live off bitcoin without ever needing to KYC with anyone. No government, corporation or other third party can interfere with you using bitcoin.

Bitcoin will save us from the broken fiat system. 

Purchasing-Power-of-the-U.S.-Dollar-Over

BTC seems like a gigantic pump-and-dump to me.  Just be careful out there everyone.  Don't put more in it than you're willing/able to lose because it could come crashing down one day.  

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46 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

BTC seems like a gigantic pump-and-dump to me.  Just be careful out there everyone.  Don't put more in it than you're willing/able to lose because it could come crashing down one day.  

It is. You should put in a huge short.

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1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

It is. You should put in a huge short.

Aside from the fact that I don't know if you can even put in a short sale on BTC, I'm not crazy enough to do that either.  Even if it does eventually crash, I have no idea how big the bubble might get to, which could force me out of my position at a big loss. 

Besides, I'm not telling people not to gamble their money in BTC, just to understand that it is more of a gamble than "investing".  And I'm well aware that people have gotten rich off it.  Congrats if you're one of them.  All I offer by way of advice is to just be wary.  People at one time thought the dot com bubble wasn't going to pop either.

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10 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Aside from the fact that I don't know if you can even put in a short sale on BTC, I'm not crazy enough to do that either.  Even if it does eventually crash, I have no idea how big the bubble might get to, which could force me out of my position at a big loss. 

Besides, I'm not telling people not to gamble their money in BTC, just to understand that it is more of a gamble than "investing".  And I'm well aware that people have gotten rich off it.  Congrats if you're one of them.  All I offer by way of advice is to just be wary.  People at one time thought the dot com bubble wasn't going to pop either.

https://www.investopedia.com/news/short-bitcoin/

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11 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

From my previous post:

Aside from the fact that I don't know if you can even put in a short sale on BTC, I'm not crazy enough to do that either.  Even if it does eventually crash, I have no idea how big the bubble might get to, which could force me out of my position at a big loss. 

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3 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

 

This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly

https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640

 

I have no interest in convincing anyone that Bitcoin isn't a bubble. I'll just say this.

If you believe Bitcoin doesn't have underlying value it's simply because you don't understand it. If you don't want to learn about it I'm not going to try to convince you.

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3 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

 

This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly

https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640

 

I have no interest in convincing anyone that Bitcoin isn't a bubble. I'll just say this.

If you believe Bitcoin doesn't have underlying value it's simply because you don't understand it. If you don't want to learn about it I'm not going to try to convince you.

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15 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I have no interest in convincing anyone that Bitcoin isn't a bubble. I'll just say this.

If you believe Bitcoin doesn't have underlying value it's simply because you don't understand it. If you don't want to learn about it I'm not going to try to convince you.

If it has underlying value I can't image what it is.  It's not a physical thing that can be used and there's no reason it should have the value it has when there are so many other cryptos to choose from (plus others that can be made in the future).   Fiat currency shouldn't have the value it has either though so I guess you never know.  But you're arguing "underlying value" anyway so that's a much different argument than the point I made about fiat currency.

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6 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

If it has underlying value I can't image what it is.  It's not a physical thing that can be used and there's no reason it should have the value it has when there are so many other cryptos to choose from (plus others that can be made in the future).   Fiat currency shouldn't have the value it has either though so I guess you never know.  But you're arguing "underlying value" anyway so that's a much different argument than the point I made about fiat currency.

I'm actually not making an argument at all. 🤷‍♂️

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33 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I'm actually not making an argument at all. 🤷‍♂️

Your argument was: "If you believe Bitcoin doesn't have underlying value it's simply because you don't understand it."

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Inflation has likely peaked.  If you believe Bitcoin is a hedge on inflation it's likely a bad bet.  If you believe it's simply a high risk assett, low inflation will raise the price.  A strong dollar is bad for high risk stocks.   The war and the fed being behind the curve on inflation and likely tightening when inflation is already in the rear view mirror will be bad for the economy and demand which will lower inflation dramatically and good for risk assetts.   The dollar is going up and commodities including oil are likely to come down despite the war.

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On 4/11/2022 at 8:29 AM, Biggs said:

Inflation has likely peaked.  If you believe Bitcoin is a hedge on inflation it's likely a bad bet.  If you believe it's simply a high risk assett, low inflation will raise the price.  A strong dollar is bad for high risk stocks.   The war and the fed being behind the curve on inflation and likely tightening when inflation is already in the rear view mirror will be bad for the economy and demand which will lower inflation dramatically and good for risk assetts.   The dollar is going up and commodities including oil are likely to come down despite the war.

Now do it again with words I can understand lol.

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5 hours ago, Maxman said:

Now do it again with words I can understand lol.

Bitcoin is not a hedge against inflation.  It's simply a high risk assett.  One without earnings or dividends.  It's price will rise with risk assetts.  Risk assets do well when there is low inflation.  The reason is simply.  High inflation means high interest rates on bonds.  You don't need to take risks to get returns.  Low inflation means low return on bonds.  Money will chase returns in risk assetts.  As interest rates go up high risk assets value go down.

The narative that Bitcoin is somehow a defense against inflation is BS.  

 

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On 4/11/2022 at 8:29 AM, Biggs said:

Inflation has likely peaked.  If you believe Bitcoin is a hedge on inflation it's likely a bad bet.  If you believe it's simply a high risk assett, low inflation will raise the price.  A strong dollar is bad for high risk stocks.   The war and the fed being behind the curve on inflation and likely tightening when inflation is already in the rear view mirror will be bad for the economy and demand which will lower inflation dramatically and good for risk assetts.   The dollar is going up and commodities including oil are likely to come down despite the war.

I doubt this is peak inflation or that it's going anywhere anytime soon. Current interest rates are .25% and the fake inflation number is 8.5 (actually much higher) leaving a real negative interest rate. The feds won't be able to reel in inflation without triggering a massive recession.

the fed and fiat money not backed by gold is a scam

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27 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I doubt this is peak inflation or that it's going anywhere anytime soon. Current interest rates are .25% and the fake inflation number is 8.5 (actually much higher) leaving a real negative interest rate. The feds won't be able to reel in inflation without triggering a massive recession.

the fed and fiat money not backed by gold is a scam

Gold is a scam.  Other than industrial use and jewelry it's value is simply the full faith of the market.  It doesn't produce dividends, it doesn't produce earnings.  It's backed by supply and demand.  Demand in gold like bitcoin is faith based.  Controlled supply without demand is totally irrelevant.  

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27 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Gold is a scam.  Other than industrial use and jewelry it's value is simply the full faith of the market.  It doesn't produce dividends, it doesn't produce earnings.  It's backed by supply and demand.  Demand in gold like bitcoin is faith based.  Controlled supply without demand is totally irrelevant.  

What is the purpose of money?

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7 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

What is the purpose of money?

Money like gold and Bitcoin value is based simply on supply and demand.  A limited supply doesn't insure demand.  Having money backed by gold only provides a backstop if people have faith in gold as a store of money.  Golds value moves in direct relationship to supply and demand just like money.   Just because supply increases doesn't mean demand is stagnant.  Just because supply is stagnant doesn't mean demand can't drop.  

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1 hour ago, Biggs said:

Money like gold and Bitcoin value is based simply on supply and demand.  A limited supply doesn't insure demand.  Having money backed by gold only provides a backstop if people have faith in gold as a store of money.  Golds value moves in direct relationship to supply and demand just like money.   Just because supply increases doesn't mean demand is stagnant.  Just because supply is stagnant doesn't mean demand can't drop.  

Money is used as a means of exchange of value so we don't have to barter goats for houses and houses for tomatoes that will rot. The value of a home or a bunch of tomatoes can be stored in the money that people agree upon as a medium of exchange. It was a significant advance in human civilization and allowed modern economies to develop.

Many different things have been used for money over the course of history, most fail due to the inability to store value due to scarcity or other reasons (durability, divisibility, portability, etc). Fiat money not backed from gold suffers more from this than wampum. With fiat not backed by gold you're putting blind faith in the power of a central authority to not debase the value you have earned/saved. The fed just steals the value you earned whenever they please. It's complete garbage and we're all being scammed.

 

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21 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Money is used as a means of exchange of value so we don't have to barter goats for houses and houses for tomatoes that will rot. The value of a home or a bunch of tomatoes can be stored in the money that people agree upon as a medium of exchange. It was a significant advance in human civilization and allowed modern economies to develop.

Many different things have been used for money over the course of history, most fail due to the inability to store value due to scarcity or other reasons (durability, divisibility, portability, etc). Fiat money not backed from gold suffers more from this than wampum. With fiat not backed by gold you're putting blind faith in the power of a central authority to not debase the value you have earned/saved. The fed just steals the value you earned whenever they please. It's complete garbage and we're all being scammed.

 

Fiat money is backed by supply and demand and the credibility and stability of the issuing country.   Since the USA went off the gold standard more people around the globe have stopped living in starvation and we have created the largest global middle class in human history in the shortest time in human history.    The idea that the collective "we" are getting poorer because of the creation or destruction of US dollars by the fed is simply ignoring the reality of world history and current human wealth.

You might be able to make an argument that wealth in the US has been disproportianately distributed and many people are getting poorer.    In real terms collectively we are still getting richer.  The distribution effect is probably the result of fiscal policy since monetary policy is growing the economy and wealth effect.   The fed also doesn't control the velocity of money.  Without that inflation of the magnitude of a fire in a theatre doesn't exist. 

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