oh for 7

[Thai Jet]

9 hours ago, Joejet said:

The bottom line is opinions don’t mean crap, results are the only thing that matters.  Either Sam produces or he doesn’t, that will override anyone’s opinion.

Opinions are like aholes, everybody has one.

[CTM]

9 hours ago, Losmeister said:

0-7 espn+ writers pick Sam as breakout qb for 2020

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/28601661/nfl-experts-predict-answering-2020-offseason-biggest-questions

They need to get thier eye tests fixed 

[Losmeister]

i wonder to myself...   a poster who pees in a bag and then names himself after the bag he peed in...    

so considering the source, a bag of waste... 

 

yeah his opinion is valuable

[GREENBEAN]

10 hours ago, Dcat said:

LOL.  Like those guys have a clue.  And the Jets almost never get any recognition, praise, optimism from the national media.  Ever.  Irrelevant.  And Sam WILL have a breakout year if the OL can hold up and we have a solid WR.  Big ifs, but highly possible.  

I agree. 

The thing about the national media is that they know we are a volatile fan base and are easily roused.  Say something negative about the Jets and they double their clicks. F em. 

[Losmeister]

1 hour ago, GREENBEAN said:

I agree. 

The thing about the national media is that they know we are a volatile fan base and are easily roused.  Say something negative about the Jets and they double their clicks. F em. 

nat'l media thinks nyjets are a joke. they almost took us seriously there in 09-10...  but the wheels came off...

biggest 2 things in last 10 yrs is buttfumble and seeing ghosts....     and thats who we'll remain untgil we win.

and we wont win by having a qb who plays poorly being given too many years to come good.

[GREENBEAN]

7 hours ago, Losmeister said:

nat'l media thinks nyjets are a joke. they almost took us seriously there in 09-10...  but the wheels came off...

biggest 2 things in last 10 yrs is buttfumble and seeing ghosts....     and thats who we'll remain untgil we win.

and we wont win by having a qb who plays poorly being given too many years to come good.

yep. The Media loves to poke at the Jets with a stick. The problem is that we've given tons of reasons for them to do just that to us. Some of the stupidest moves in the league were made by our beloved franchise. 

Just the fact that we took another damned DT at #3 when Josh Allen was sitting there waiting to finally fill a major and glaring need for us is enough all by itself to laugh at us. 

I just hope JD is the real deal. If he is a legit GM then its all about to turn around. 

[jgb]

10 hours ago, Wonderboy said:

Nah he’s over the sophomore jinx. Time to step up.

Fair to ask what exactly was he slumping from?

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

Sam will progress as far as his new offensive line takes him .

[Warfish]

Will Sam Darnold be a top 10 NFL QB Next year, by the metrics?

Because apart from winning games, that is really all I care about from Sam.

[Jetster]

How many years did some of the best QBs sit on the bench in this league? It's tough learning ON THE RUN......LITERALLY. 

[Wonderboy]

2 hours ago, jgb said:

Fair to ask what exactly was he slumping from?

Maccitis 

[CTM]

2 hours ago, Warfish said:

Will Sam Darnold be a top 10 NFL QB Next year, by the metrics?

Well when you look at the metrics in an analytical way, he was actually top 5 this year 

[Sperm Edwards]

22 hours ago, JiF said:

Seems a little premature for this type of a piece but it's slow time for the NFL.  I'd personally like to see what the Jets do this offseason before making predictions.  No QB was going to be successful behind last years historically bad OL.  

I didnt open the article but let me guess;  the players they picked, are 2nd year players who are on teams surrounded by talent thus easier to predict a "breakout season"? 

 

I think your guy Watson would have succeeded. The Jets' line wasn't demonstrably worse - certainly not at pass blocking - than the ones he played with his first 2 seasons. Watson took over 4 sacks/game his 2nd season.

Without nearly buying as much time for himself as Watson was able to do, Darnold had the 3rd-highest time to throw in the NFL in 2019. 

Sure there were many plays where he had no chance at all. He's not alone. But it gets exaggerated as though that was the norm on half his dropbacks or something (and in a couple games there was disproportionately worse protection than in the bulk of other ones). The 2019 line he was given was trash - no argument from me - but there are, have been, and will be other horrible trash lines as well. His 7% sack percentage sure isn't good, but when combined with his higher TTT average, it really isn't one for the record books. What is getting measured is the players' performances (and calling too many of teh bad playz) behind this line more than the line itself. But that presumes they'd have all been top players in 2019 on other teams, which is a harder sell.

[southparkcpa]

20 hours ago, joewilly12 said:

2020 free agency and draft will make or break Sam Darnold. 

For years we had all the pieces but a franchise QB now we have the franchise QB and  pieces of shlt.

 

fixed

[Warfish]

1 hour ago, CTM said:

Well when you look at the metrics in an analytical way, he was actually top 5 this year 

Which metric would that be?

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, Warfish said:

Which metric would that be?

Nico's QB Power Rankings.  

[Losmeister]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I think your guy Watson would have succeeded. The Jets' line wasn't demonstrably worse - certainly not at pass blocking - than the ones he played with his first 2 seasons. Watson took over 4 sacks/game his 2nd season.

Without nearly buying as much time for himself as Watson was able to do, Darnold had the 3rd-highest time to throw in the NFL in 2019. 

Sure there were many plays where he had no chance at all. He's not alone. But it gets exaggerated as though that was the norm on half his dropbacks or something (and in a couple games there was disproportionately worse protection than in the bulk of other ones). The 2019 line he was given was trash - no argument from me - but there are, have been, and will be other horrible trash lines as well. His 7% sack percentage sure isn't good, but when combined with his higher TTT average, it really isn't one for the record books. What is getting measured is the players' performances (and calling too many of teh bad playz) behind this line more than the line itself. But that presumes they'd have all been top players in 2019 on other teams, which is a harder sell.

jet nation response is straight from talking heads

[Losmeister]

5 hours ago, GREENBEAN said:

ust the fact that we took another damned DT at #3 when Josh Allen was sitting there waiting to finally fill a major and glaring need for us is enough all by itself to laugh at us. 

I just hope JD is the real deal. If he is a legit GM then its all about to turn around.

this., i remember making a post and shwoing theor physiques...josh allen and q...   

a real smh...  i'll tkae the lean and mean ripped stud, thanks.

 

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

 

 

[Sperm Edwards]

4 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

jet nation response is straight from talking heads

I'm still hopeful (though that may be that I want to be).

I'm not deeply moved by his need for competition; that's something for QBs who have intelligence or maturity issues (read: Sanchez). I don't think Darnold's struggles thus far are a result of him slacking off, not studying enough film, not working on his mechanics enough, etc. If they want to bring back a McCown type, let it be as a QBC for however much money he wants, but not as a salary that counts against the cap. 

It's his 3rd year, and they're not going to be fickle and pull him after 2 rough starts in a row (nor should they). Nor are they going to draft a QB anywhere before round 5. So at least get the rest of the team (particularly at OL/WR) in order - as much as they're able to this offseason - and if he still struggles just as much as he did as a rookie, then they have to look to bring in someone else with him next year. And hey, he still may not be anything great for 3 years and then takes off in year 4.

Likely or unlikely to happen, waking up & "getting it" after 3 seasons is not totally unheard of among QBs who started ~2000 or later e.g. Brees is the best example; Rodgers (though the different reasons are obvious); Alex Smith wasn't really reliable until his 7th season; Sheli; Cousins; Hasselbeck; Warner; Bradford; hell, even Fitzpatrick. He started a bit earlier, but also look at Favre, and unlike Darnold he was a total meathead. Then there are others who never totally put it together despite some early teases in spurts (Sanchez, Harrington, Leftwich, Freeman, and more) and get largely forgotten about other than buttfumbling on Thanksgiving. 

He doesn't look like a hopeles stiff to me. I guess I'm in the middle on this one. Some guys just jump right in and are so good no matter the situation and no matter how bad the QB play was before the youngster got onto the field (and how much their fans blamed far more than just the QB). Watson was like that. Wilson, too. Or Mahomes once he was named the starter in year 2. Plus some others (Rapist, RGIII, Prescott, and Newton off the top of my head). But not being insta-wow just like them doesn't make Darnold a bust. Some just need a little more time to cook, especially if the situation is (shall we say) less than ideal. 

I'll form a lot more of an opinion in year 3, pretty much like everyone else. 

[Losmeister]

10 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I'm still hopeful (though that may be that I want to be).

I'm not deeply moved by his need for competition; that's something for QBs who have intelligence or maturity issues (read: Sanchez). I don't think Darnold's struggles thus far are a result of him slacking off, not studying enough film, not working on his mechanics enough, etc. If they want to bring back a McCown type, let it be as a QBC for however much money he wants, but not as a salary that counts against the cap. 

It's his 3rd year, and they're not going to be fickle and pull him after 2 rough starts in a row (nor should they). Nor are they going to draft a QB anywhere before round 5. So at least get the rest of the team (particularly at OL/WR) in order - as much as they're able to this offseason - and if he still struggles just as much as he did as a rookie, then they have to look to bring in someone else with him next year. And hey, he still may not be anything great for 3 years and then takes off in year 4.

Likely or unlikely to happen, waking up & "getting it" after 3 seasons is not totally unheard of among QBs who started ~2000 or later e.g. Brees is the best example; Rodgers (though the different reasons are obvious); Alex Smith wasn't really reliable until his 7th season; Sheli; Cousins; Hasselbeck; Warner; Bradford; hell, even Fitzpatrick. He started a bit earlier, but also look at Favre, and unlike Darnold he was a total meathead. Then there are others who never totally put it together despite some early teases in spurts (Sanchez, Harrington, Leftwich, Freeman, and more) and get largely forgotten about other than buttfumbling on Thanksgiving. 

He doesn't look like a hopeles stiff to me. I guess I'm in the middle on this one. Some guys just jump right in and are so good no matter the situation and no matter how bad the QB play was before the youngster got onto the field (and how much their fans blamed far more than just the QB). Watson was like that. Wilson, too. Or Mahomes once he was named the starter in year 2. Plus some others (Rapist, RGIII, Prescott, and Newton off the top of my head). But not being insta-wow just like them doesn't make Darnold a bust. Some just need a little more time to cook, especially if the situation is (shall we say) less than ideal. 

I'll form a lot more of an opinion in year 3, pretty much like everyone else. 

reasonable...   but I am gonna be disappointed if he's a Alex Smith...   i dont see it gelling to perennial top 10 at all..    his flaws are too basic...not throwing to to open guys and take a sack, not reading D well and throwing INT, bad footwork...

good kid. just not what he was hyped to be. i wasnt that into the 2018 QB class. now i think i am being justified.

[Sperm Edwards]

24 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

reasonable...   but I am gonna be disappointed if he's a Alex Smith...   i dont see it gelling to perennial top 10 at all..    his flaws are too basic...not throwing to to open guys and take a sack, not reading D well and throwing INT, bad footwork...

good kid. just not what he was hyped to be. i wasnt that into the 2018 QB class. now i think i am being justified.

He's a different player and was a different prospect than Smith, so the only comparison is that neither was awesome out of the gate (though Darnold was clearly better). I think Smith was envisioned as an efficient passer who could also beat you a bit with his mobility. More NFL-ready (ironic as that is) than "whoa" upside. Darnold was more of a Favre-type (even if he doesn't quite have Favre's arm, he's got enough) in that he'd make mistakes but had the "it" factor (yes I also roll my eyes at people calling it that) like something that others with his same build/arm/speed just don't have. I haven't seen a ton of it yet, mind you, but I haven't seen none of it either. 

Here's the thing: the flaws you mention are all very fixable, and it comes with experience as the game slows down for him. It also helps to have some consistency in the coaching on his side of the ball. As this happens - granted, hopefully - he starts to recognize things more easily as he sees them over & over -- there are only so many different things a defense can do. Things that he's thinking about become more automatic. FFS even McCown had a few later years where he was an efficient QB but for him it took into his 30s; meanwhile when he was younger he was a useless sack of crap even throwing to Fitz & Boldin. 

We'll see. 

[CTM]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Which metric would that be?

 

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Nico's QB Power Rankings.  

The analytical way 

[Warfish]

13 minutes ago, CTM said:

The analytical way 

I see.

[Losmeister]

29 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

even McCown had a few later years where he was an efficient QB

that bar...     is awfully, awfully LOW

and THATS the point...   make a few good plays here and there and JetNation says...  IGNORE all the other stuff its not his REAL self...

for all these "flashes" theres way too much dark....  we paid a 1st rnd 6 and 3 second rnders for a guy we hope some day has a couple efficient years? thats the definition of bust.

[tfine]

that bar...     is awfully, awfully LOW
and THATS the point...   make a few good plays here and there and JetNation says...  IGNORE all the other stuff its not his REAL self...
for all these "flashes" theres way too much dark....  we paid a 1st rnd 6 and 3 second rnders for a guy we hope some day has a couple efficient years? thats the definition of bust.

It’s quotes like this the make me think that the QB position is way way way overvalued around here. Like the rest of the team doesn’t exist. Anyone who thinks this guy was going to ride in a white horse and all of a sudden guys who suck are going to automatically become pro bowlers is living a dream world


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[Sperm Edwards]

8 hours ago, Losmeister said:

that bar...     is awfully, awfully LOW

and THATS the point...   make a few good plays here and there and JetNation says...  IGNORE all the other stuff its not his REAL self...

for all these "flashes" theres way too much dark....  we paid a 1st rnd 6 and 3 second rnders for a guy we hope some day has a couple efficient years? thats the definition of bust.

They also have different upsides, and Darnold's is obviously higher; it's not that hopefully someday he has a couple McCown-like years well into his 30s. The clear point I was making was is that even he got much better over time -- particularly in the types of areas you outline as areas where Darnold needs improvement. Put his 35 yr old head on his 25 yr old body and he's probably a far better QB than he ever was. He had arguably his best season here - at what, 39? - when he repeatedly underthrew Anderson because he no longer had the gun to fire that bullet. But if you want a better example of someone who took a long time to get it, then use Rich Gannon. But I threw in a lot of better names than McCown - starting with Brees - and it's a bit weak to jump on McCown as though I was suggesting Darnold's ceiling rather than how even a lesser QB talent can still eventually put it together to a degree.

Darnold's problems you outline are fixable with experience. They're not the types of assets players are necessarily born with or born without, which is why historically it's typically outliers who have their best seasons and reach their peak prior to age 23. For guys we've had like Sanchez, who teased early on, the problems were not fixable because of what's in (and what isn't in) his head. With Geno even worse: it's not like he couldn't throw a football straight (that was Hackenberg). 

Whether Darnold fixes these fixable issues (e.g. unnecessarily throwing off his back foot sometimes, throwing it away or just taking the sack, running progressions faster) and whether it takes his first few years or his first ten - is what remains to be seen. No one's interested in waiting over a decade for him to eventually have some late-Gannon years. There are other QBs.

[jgb]

9 hours ago, tfine said:

 

It’s quotes like this the make me think that the QB position is way way way overvalued around here. Like the rest of the team doesn’t exist. Anyone who thinks this guy was going to ride in a white horse and all of a sudden guys who suck are going to automatically become pro bowlers is living a dream world


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

 

The problem with this argument is that just because a QB is not good on a bad team doesn’t lead ipso facto that he will be good on a good team. GMs and coaches need to evaluate players in the situations they are in.

[Losmeister]

someone else said it...  bad years foloowed by good years, brees and gannon are the outliers...  most who play like sam dont improve much...

 

[Jetster]

On 2/12/2020 at 1:11 PM, Sperm Edwards said:

I think your guy Watson would have succeeded. The Jets' line wasn't demonstrably worse - certainly not at pass blocking - than the ones he played with his first 2 seasons. Watson took over 4 sacks/game his 2nd season.

Without nearly buying as much time for himself as Watson was able to do, Darnold had the 3rd-highest time to throw in the NFL in 2019. 

Sure there were many plays where he had no chance at all. He's not alone. But it gets exaggerated as though that was the norm on half his dropbacks or something (and in a couple games there was disproportionately worse protection than in the bulk of other ones). The 2019 line he was given was trash - no argument from me - but there are, have been, and will be other horrible trash lines as well. His 7% sack percentage sure isn't good, but when combined with his higher TTT average, it really isn't one for the record books. What is getting measured is the players' performances (and calling too many of teh bad playz) behind this line more than the line itself. But that presumes they'd have all been top players in 2019 on other teams, which is a harder sell.

Have you seen Deandre Hopkins play? Only if Sam Darnold had Hopkins running around while Sam was escaping pressure could you can compare the 2. We let Robby Anderson get to free agency, would we have done that if we had Hopkins? The guy catches everything thrown to him, gets open when EVERYONE knows he's the best offensive player on the field. 

[Sperm Edwards]

9 hours ago, Jetster said:

Have you seen Deandre Hopkins play? Only if Sam Darnold had Hopkins running around while Sam was escaping pressure could you can compare the 2. We let Robby Anderson get to free agency, would we have done that if we had Hopkins? The guy catches everything thrown to him, gets open when EVERYONE knows he's the best offensive player on the field. 

Hopkins was catching 55% of his passes before Watson go there. Almost nobody realizes this.

[Jetster]

14 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Hopkins was catching 55% of his passes before Watson go there. Almost nobody realizes this.

Oh.....that's why he's considered the best WR in the league....gotcha. 

[Sperm Edwards]

2 hours ago, Jetster said:

Oh.....that's why he's considered the best WR in the league....gotcha. 

No, I don’t think you do get it. 

A poorly-performing QB doesn’t suddenly become Deshaun Watson just because you put DeAndre Hopkins on his receiving corps. That’s not a thing that happens. Likewise, if I’d just shown you Smith-Schuster‘s 2019 season without Roethlisberger it’s doubtful you’d even fathom his ceiling - a year younger - would have been a 10% higher catch-rate double the TDs and 2.5x the yardage. 

No matter how talented they are as receivers, the tail doesn’t wag the dog. 

[Bowles Movement]

On 2/12/2020 at 1:11 PM, Sperm Edwards said:

I think your guy Watson would have succeeded. The Jets' line wasn't demonstrably worse - certainly not at pass blocking - than the ones he played with his first 2 seasons. Watson took over 4 sacks/game his 2nd season.

Without nearly buying as much time for himself as Watson was able to do, Darnold had the 3rd-highest time to throw in the NFL in 2019. 

Sure there were many plays where he had no chance at all. He's not alone. But it gets exaggerated as though that was the norm on half his dropbacks or something (and in a couple games there was disproportionately worse protection than in the bulk of other ones). The 2019 line he was given was trash - no argument from me - but there are, have been, and will be other horrible trash lines as well. His 7% sack percentage sure isn't good, but when combined with his higher TTT average, it really isn't one for the record books. What is getting measured is the players' performances (and calling too many of teh bad playz) behind this line more than the line itself. But that presumes they'd have all been top players in 2019 on other teams, which is a harder sell.

Where are you getting this from?  Think about this vs what you saw-  there’s no way he had more time than all but 2 qbs.  

I’ve read that Darnold had the second or third least time on average of any NFL QB- maybe you misread what you’re quoting?

[Bowles Movement]

On 2/13/2020 at 6:36 AM, Losmeister said:

someone else said it...  bad years foloowed by good years, brees and gannon are the outliers...  most who play like sam dont improve much...

 

Sam improved in every measurable way in his second year despite a sieve for an o line and no running game.   What were your expectations?