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Doggin94it

Realistic Offseason Plan

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I love the passion, but offseason plans that include signing Amari Cooper for 14M per year or less aren't useful, because they aren't going to happen. Here's my stab at a realistic mock offseason; I'm going to try to skew high on cap costs to avoid assuming we have more resources than we do. 

Cut or trade: Trumaine Johnson, Avery Williamson, Quincy Enunwa, Brian Winters, Darryl Roberts, Josh Bellamy, Blake Countess

Williamson should be the only semi-controversial piece here, but the defense showed it could function without him last year and we can't have that much in resources tied up in two inside linebackers. 

Available cap space: 75.2M

Resign or extend:

Lachlan Edwards: 4/12M (3M cap hit). That would make Edwards the 7th highest paid punter in the league, by average salary - a little ahead of his production but appropriate based on age, projection, and inflation. 

Brian Poole: 4/24.5 (6.125M cap hit). A contract north of what Skrine got last offseason. 

Jamal Adams: 5/75, 25M signing bonus, 2M roster bonus (7M additional cap hit). A true extension (no change to his 2020 salary, 48M in new salary spread over 2021-2025 with a 16M balloon in 2025), Adams becomes the highest paid safety in the league without hitting the cap too hard this year, and cap hits of roughly 13m per in 2021-24. A good deal for both sides, and Adams' ego.

James Burgess: 1/3.28M (2d round tender). Would work on a longer term extension, but between Burgess or Hewitt, I'll take Burgess. 

Jordan Jenkins: 5/25 (5M cap hit). Would make Jenkins the 15th highest paid 3-4 OLB. 

Alex Lewis: 3/6 (2M cap hit) 

Deymarius Thomas: 2/6 (3M cap hit) 

Available Cap Remaining: 45.8M

Free Agent Signings

Breshad Perriman: 3/21 (7M). Former first rounder who showed out in TB this year can replace Robbie as our deep threat

Ronald Darby: 1/5 A prove-it deal for a CB who has been very good before a down 2019

Jack Conklin: 5/85M (17M) Basically, the Trent Brown contract with an extra year tacked on. If he's not available, or signs elsewhere, turn our sights on Germain Ifedi or Bryan Bulaga

Stefen Wisniewski - 3/7 (2.3M)

Available Cap Remaining: 16.5M (for rookies, ERFAs like Luvu, and post-comp pick deadline free agent signings

Draft

These moves basically lock us in to taking the best available LT at 11, so the plan only works if the team agrees with the analysts that there are 5 LTs who could be value there (Thomas, Wills, Wirfs, Becton & Jones). But if there's any draft to go in with a clear positional need at LT, this is the one. 

1-11 Mekhi Becton, LT Louisville 

2-48 Noah Igbinoghene, CB, Auburn

3-68 Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor

3-79 Nick Harris C/G, Washington

4-101 OG Solomon Kindley

5-140 Michael Pittman Jr., WR USC

6 Best Available Athlete 

7 Best Available K

Summary: We restock the OL with an elite RT, our LT of the future, and 2 interior linemen in the draft. Shore up our receiving corps with a second tier FA (Perriman) and upside picks in Mims & Pittman while keeping Thomas for continuity (no need for either rookie to start, but Thomas won't block them if they show they're ready). With Robbie, Beachum, Shell, Siemien, Hewitt, Copeland and Montgomery likely to sign elsewhere in the comp pick period, we likely gain a high value 2021 comp pick as a net loser of free agents; if they don't, we can resign them at a discount later. And a CB group of Darby-Austin-Poole-Igbinoghene-Maulet is light years better than our 2019 group, which helps make up for the weakness at edge

Thoughts? 

 

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I appreciate the realistic effort. I'd add resigning Beachum to a modest deal in an effort to remain flexible at #11, be it taking a WR or Edge or trading down if offered the right deal. Also, if they draft a guy like Wirfs, they could plug him in at LG as a rookie to learn on the job. 

And I'm listening to offers for Jamal Adams, probably making counters. 

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The only move here I really don’t think makes sense is Wisniewski. Harrison while not great has proven he can play just fine.

Wisniewski seems like he would be a repeat of the same bad signing Kalil turned out to be. He’s a few years into the downward slope of his career. 
 

if you want him here just to play Guard, I still think you’re better off taking a kid in the draft.

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34 minutes ago, static14 said:

The only move here I really don’t think makes sense is Wisniewski. Harrison while not great has proven he can play just fine.

Wisniewski seems like he would be a repeat of the same bad signing Kalil turned out to be. He’s a few years into the downward slope of his career. 
 

if you want him here just to play Guard, I still think you’re better off taking a kid in the draft.

I want him here to play G, back up at C, and be able to slide into a backup role if the mid-round G we take in the draft earns a starting job. Can't count on 3rd or 4th rounders to be day-1 starters on the OL

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36 minutes ago, slats said:

I appreciate the realistic effort. I'd add resigning Beachum to a modest deal in an effort to remain flexible at #11, be it taking a WR or Edge or trading down if offered the right deal. Also, if they draft a guy like Wirfs, they could plug him in at LG as a rookie to learn on the job. 

And I'm listening to offers for Jamal Adams, probably making counters. 

Thanks. I hear that about Beachum, but we're going to need to take a LT in the draft at some point soon, they need to be taken high (and we hope not to be drafting this high again in the near future) and the value at LT in this draft is just wild. Now's the time to make that pick. Plus letting Beachum walk now increases the odds we get a 3rd or 4th round comp pick next year (he and Robbie should both get 8-figure per year deals). On balance, I'm OK with locking in at LT and costing ourselves Lamb/Jeudy in the balance.

As for Adams, if someone blows us away, fine. But he's an elite player, the heartbeat of the defense and we know he can do well here. At some point, we need to pay our homegrown players; I'm not looking to move on from him.

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13 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

I want him here to play G, back up at C, and be able to slide into a backup role if the mid-round G we take in the draft earns a starting job. Can't count on 3rd or 4th rounders to be day-1 starters on the OL

The plan has to be to get a guy in here who can play both G and C for depth purposes, whether that's Glasgow, Cushenberry or someone else.  That's a must.

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5 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

I hear that about Beachum, but we're going to need to take a LT in the draft at some point soon, they need to be taken high (and we hope not to be drafting this high again in the near future) and the value at LT in this draft is just wild. Now's the time to make that pick.

And I get this.

For me, it's a general philosophy thing: I like BAP early (weighted by positional value and need). Now, clearly, LT is a high value position of need for the Jets, so there are many possible scenarios where the LT and the Jets will meet at pick #11. And that'll be fine with me! My concern comes when we're taking the #4 or 5 LT over the #1 WR or Edge. I'd like for Joe Douglas to be in position to take his BAP at #11, or be comfortable trading down if the opportunity presents itself. 

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2 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

Summary: We restock the OL with an elite RT, our LT of the future, and 2 interior linemen in the draft. Shore up our receiving corps with a second tier FA (Perriman) and upside picks in Mims & Pittman while keeping Thomas for continuity (no need for either rookie to start, but Thomas won't block them if they show they're ready). With Robbie, Beachum, Shell, Siemien, Hewitt, Copeland and Montgomery likely to sign elsewhere in the comp pick period, we likely gain a high value 2021 comp pick as a net loser of free agents; if they don't, we can resign them at a discount later. And a CB group of Darby-Austin-Poole-Igbinoghene-Maulet is light years better than our 2019 group, which helps make up for the weakness at edge

Thoughts? 

 

Very solid.  Thank you for the effort.  I do think the team feels that Edoga will be their RT and therefore may only bring in a mid-tier vet or middle to late round pick for backup.

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I think Becton had become the choice for a lot of mocks even over Wirfs in some cases which I’m fine with.  I would like to grab two wideouts in the 2nd and 3rd rounds because it’s deep and some good ones will fall 

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13 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

Thanks. I hear that about Beachum, but we're going to need to take a LT in the draft at some point soon, they need to be taken high (and we hope not to be drafting this high again in the near future) and the value at LT in this draft is just wild. Now's the time to make that pick.

 

Dangerous game to play there.  We can't let Beachum go in March only to find out we missed out on the top LT's in the draft.  OR, if we do take an OT, find out that the kid isn't ready to handle LT duties and needs to be kicked to RT or G.  

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We can’t make Jamal Adams 15mil/year when we have no OL/WR and Edge rushers.That’s 1.2 mil less than Mike Evans and Hopkins make, more than Davante Adams, Everson Griffin and more than every corner in the league makes. Trade him for picks and move on! 

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8 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Dangerous game to play there.  We can't let Beachum go in March only to find out we missed out on the top LT's in the draft.  OR, if we do take an OT, find out that the kid isn't ready to handle LT duties and needs to be kicked to RT or G.  

Yep. Got to be convinced that any of the 5 can come in and play LT day 1. If you're not, you have to bring back Beachum or someone else, or be ok with (gulp) Edoga as the kid learns. But this crop looks really special - and ready

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1 minute ago, SR24 said:

We can’t make Jamal Adams 15mil/year when we have no OL/WR and Edge rushers.That’s 1.2 mil less than Mike Evans and Hopkins make, more than Davante Adams, Everson Griffin and more than every corner in the league makes. Trade him for picks and move on! 

Welcome to the difference between signing a player in 2020 and signing a player in 2018 (Evans), 2017 (Hopkins), 2017 (Adams), and 2017 (Griffen). This year, a receiver of that caliber would be signing at closer to 20M per.  The safety market's been reset at 14-15M by the latest batch of contracts (Collins, Byard, Jackson), and Adams is better than all of them. It'll cost 15M per to sign him long term, which is why you give it to him now, but structure it so it's really less than a 13M per deal over the next 5 seasons (this year-2024, he'd get paid a total of 59M in new money, 63M in total), with a 16M or so final year that's renegotiate/cut/keep decision time (0 cap hit if you choose to let go).  

Also, the top average CB salary is more than 15M (Xav Howard), and that was an extension. Wait til you see what Byron Jones gets in FA this year 

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3 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

Welcome to the difference between signing a player in 2020 and signing a player in 2018 (Evans), 2017 (Hopkins), 2017 (Adams), and 2017 (Griffen). This year, a receiver of that caliber would be signing at closer to 20M per.  The safety market's been reset at 14-15M by the latest batch of contracts (Collins, Byard, Jackson), and Adams is better than all of them. It'll cost 15M per to sign him long term, which is why you give it to him now, but structure it so it's really less than a 13M per deal over the next 5 seasons (this year-2024, he'd get paid a total of 59M in new money, 63M in total), with a 16M or so final year that's renegotiate/cut/keep decision time (0 cap hit if you choose to let go).  

Also, the top average CB salary is more than 15M (Xav Howard), and that was an extension. Wait til you see what Byron Jones gets in FA this year 

 

So because everyone is getting overpaid, we should overpay our SS too?

And when factoring in the inflation, then your projected contract value for Jamal will be obsolete too.  Jamal will laugh at an offer of $15M per.  He'll want CJ Mosley money.  Maybe more.  I mean, he is on the level of Aaron Donald, right?  Why take a penny less than he thinks he's worth? 

After all, his agent can argue that signing him now to that kind of coin will actually save the team money down the road as inflation rates continue to rise.

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4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

So because everyone is getting overpaid, we should overpay our SS too?

And when factoring in the inflation, then your projected contract value for Jamal will be obsolete too.  Jamal will laugh at an offer of $15M per.  He'll want CJ Mosley money.  Maybe more.  I mean, he is on the level of Aaron Donald, right?  Why take a penny less than he thinks he's worth? 

After all, his agent can argue that signing him now to that kind of coin will actually save the team money down the road as inflation rates continue to rise.

He can ask for whatever he wants. But he's under team control for the next three years (last year of contract, 5th year option, franchise tag) for a combined total of roughly 31M, so if he wants to play hardball instead of "settling" for being the highest paid safety in the league ... let him. No matter what he does in FA after year 4, he's not recouping the ~12M difference between that and the 43M or so in cash flow he'd be getting over the same period on the proposed deal. If he throws a tantrum, Jets should make it known that they offered to make him the highest paid safety in the league, and move on.

And no, paying the best SS in the league 15M per (again, really 13M per) isn't "overpaying"; not only is it market rate, but 15M is roughly 7% of the cap, which is a reasonable amount for an elite safety - especially given that the number will decrease as the cap increases year over year, and that the real number is only 6%.

You guys have to stop judging "overpaying" by what safeties earned when the cap was 150M.

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Nice. Unfortunately here in Jetland, "realistic" and "reality" usually don't line up at all.

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1 minute ago, Doggin94it said:

He can ask for whatever he wants. But he's under team control for the next three years (last year of contract, 5th year option, franchise tag) for a combined total of roughly 31M, so if he wants to play hardball instead of "settling" for being the highest paid safety in the league ... let him.

He's going to become a distraction and hold out if we don't give him a new contract.  Meanwhile we miss out on striking while the iron is hot and maybe giving us the flexibility in the draft so we don't get boxed in (pun intended) to having to take an OT in the first round and nothing else.  

I'd rather trade him before all that happens than play the whole "leverage game".  

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Anyway, this isn't an Adams thread. It's an offseason plan. It's reasonable to assume he'd take a deal that made him the highest paid safety in the league, front loaded him near 30M (in a year where he can expect to be paid less than 4 if he doesn't get an extension) and guarateed (or virtually guaranteed) roughly 45M.  But if Adams won't sign an extension, you take the money you'd have paid him and allocate it elsewhere. 

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1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

He's going to become a distraction and hold out if we don't give him a new contract.  Meanwhile we miss out on striking while the iron is hot and maybe giving us the flexibility in the draft so we don't get boxed in (pun intended) to having to take an OT in the first round and nothing else.  

I'd rather trade him before all that happens than play the whole "leverage game".  

No reason to miss out on anyone. Jets should have an idea of whether Adams is willing to do a deal on their terms before FA starts. If he isn't, reallocate the funds, prepare to deal with a holdout if necessary, and let him know you're happy to talk extensions again next offseason.

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Just now, Doggin94it said:

No reason to miss out on anyone. Jets should have an idea of whether Adams is willing to do a deal on their terms before FA starts. If he isn't, reallocate the funds, prepare to deal with a holdout if necessary, and let him know you're happy to talk extensions again next offseason.

So letting your SS sit out for a full season and sitting on the picks you have is a better strategy to you than trading him?

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2 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

I love the passion, but offseason plans that include signing Amari Cooper for 14M per year or less aren't useful, because they aren't going to happen. Here's my stab at a realistic mock offseason; I'm going to try to skew high on cap costs to avoid assuming we have more resources than we do. 

Cut or trade: Trumaine Johnson, Avery Williamson, Quincy Enunwa, Brian Winters, Darryl Roberts, Josh Bellamy, Blake Countess

Williamson should be the only semi-controversial piece here, but the defense showed it could function without him last year and we can't have that much in resources tied up in two inside linebackers. 

Available cap space: 75.2M

Resign or extend:

Lachlan Edwards: 4/12M (3M cap hit). That would make Edwards the 7th highest paid punter in the league, by average salary - a little ahead of his production but appropriate based on age, projection, and inflation. 

Brian Poole: 4/24.5 (6.125M cap hit). A contract north of what Skrine got last offseason. 

Jamal Adams: 5/75, 25M signing bonus, 2M roster bonus (7M additional cap hit). A true extension (no change to his 2020 salary, 48M in new salary spread over 2021-2025 with a 16M balloon in 2025), Adams becomes the highest paid safety in the league without hitting the cap too hard this year, and cap hits of roughly 13m per in 2021-24. A good deal for both sides, and Adams' ego.

James Burgess: 1/3.28M (2d round tender). Would work on a longer term extension, but between Burgess or Hewitt, I'll take Burgess. 

Jordan Jenkins: 5/25 (5M cap hit). Would make Jenkins the 15th highest paid 3-4 OLB. 

Alex Lewis: 3/6 (2M cap hit) 

Deymarius Thomas: 2/6 (3M cap hit) 

Available Cap Remaining: 45.8M

Free Agent Signings

Breshad Perriman: 3/21 (7M). Former first rounder who showed out in TB this year can replace Robbie as our deep threat

Ronald Darby: 1/5 A prove-it deal for a CB who has been very good before a down 2019

Jack Conklin: 5/85M (17M) Basically, the Trent Brown contract with an extra year tacked on. If he's not available, or signs elsewhere, turn our sights on Germain Ifedi or Bryan Bulaga

Stefen Wisniewski - 3/7 (2.3M)

Available Cap Remaining: 16.5M (for rookies, ERFAs like Luvu, and post-comp pick deadline free agent signings

Draft

These moves basically lock us in to taking the best available LT at 11, so the plan only works if the team agrees with the analysts that there are 5 LTs who could be value there (Thomas, Wills, Wirfs, Becton & Jones). But if there's any draft to go in with a clear positional need at LT, this is the one. 

1-11 Mekhi Becton, LT Louisville 

2-48 Noah Igbinoghene, CB, Auburn

3-68 Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor

3-79 Nick Harris C/G, Washington

4-101 OG Solomon Kindley

5-140 Michael Pittman Jr., WR USC

6 Best Available Athlete 

7 Best Available K

Summary: We restock the OL with an elite RT, our LT of the future, and 2 interior linemen in the draft. Shore up our receiving corps with a second tier FA (Perriman) and upside picks in Mims & Pittman while keeping Thomas for continuity (no need for either rookie to start, but Thomas won't block them if they show they're ready). With Robbie, Beachum, Shell, Siemien, Hewitt, Copeland and Montgomery likely to sign elsewhere in the comp pick period, we likely gain a high value 2021 comp pick as a net loser of free agents; if they don't, we can resign them at a discount later. And a CB group of Darby-Austin-Poole-Igbinoghene-Maulet is light years better than our 2019 group, which helps make up for the weakness at edge

Thoughts? 

 

Had our shot last year when he was a FA and passed. No way, would not be an improvement.

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8 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

So letting your SS sit out for a full season and sitting on the picks you have is a better strategy to you than trading him?

Damn straight. For the same reason that spending 150K defending a nuisance suit is a better decision than settling for 25K: setting precedent that you're not going to cave and the player will only hurt themselves with a holdout is extremely valuable, long term - far more valuable than any picks you could recoup while signaling that holdouts get rewarded.

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Just now, Doggin94it said:

Damn straight. For the same reason that spending 150K defending a nuisance suit is a better decision than settling for 25K: setting precedent that you're not going to cave and the player will only hurt themselves with a holdout is extremely valuable, long term - far more valuable than any picks you could recoup while signaling that holdouts get rewarded.

 

That would be very altruistic of the Jets, playing hardball with their SS for the good of the league.  

Not very helpful towards becoming a perennial contender though.  

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8 minutes ago, section314 said:

Had our shot last year when he was a FA and passed. No way, would not be an improvement.

We have a different FO, one that prioritizes OL and has history with Wisniewski. Can't draw any conclusions from last offseason

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Overall, a very good and realistic plan. I like.

I like Jenkins. But I don’t really wanna spend money on him. I think Basham or Phillips can produce about the same at a fraction of what Jenkins will get.

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2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

That would be very altruistic of the Jets, playing hardball with their SS for the good of the league.  

Not very helpful towards becoming a perennial contender though.  

Not the good of the league. The good of the team. What the Jets do will impact how players and agents approach similar situations with the Jets FO going forward. It won't change a damn thing for a player thinking of holding out on, say, the Cowboys.

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2 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

We have a different FO, one that prioritizes OL and has history with Wisniewski. Can't draw any conclusions from last offseason

I believe it was JD that passed on him.

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My realistic make-believe armchair GM offseason is better than your realistic make-believe... 

Yo, can we just post our diatribes without slandering the effort of others that need to do this too? I appreciate all the reads that some of the organizing minds here put together. It’s a great way to channel off-season excitement. It’s a lot of work. Don’t discourage others from taking a crack at it. I remember joining the boards at a younger age and taking swings at stuff like this.

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12 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

My realistic make-believe armchair GM offseason is better than your realistic make-believe... 

Yo, can we just post our diatribes without slandering the effort of others that need to do this too? I appreciate all the reads that some of the organizing minds here put together. It’s a great way to channel off-season excitement. It’s a lot of work. Don’t discourage others from taking a crack at it. I remember joining the boards at a younger age and taking swings at stuff like this.

I don't need to be mature about this. It's the internet and we're playing a game of advanced guess who (the Jets will sign)

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57 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

Welcome to the difference between signing a player in 2020 and signing a player in 2018 (Evans), 2017 (Hopkins), 2017 (Adams), and 2017 (Griffen). This year, a receiver of that caliber would be signing at closer to 20M per.  The safety market's been reset at 14-15M by the latest batch of contracts (Collins, Byard, Jackson), and Adams is better than all of them. It'll cost 15M per to sign him long term, which is why you give it to him now, but structure it so it's really less than a 13M per deal over the next 5 seasons (this year-2024, he'd get paid a total of 59M in new money, 63M in total), with a 16M or so final year that's renegotiate/cut/keep decision time (0 cap hit if you choose to let go).  

Also, the top average CB salary is more than 15M (Xav Howard), and that was an extension. Wait til you see what Byron Jones gets in FA this year 

Regardless that’s way too much $$ to invest in a safety who doesn’t generate turnovers, and who’s sack total will drop when we sign/draft an edge rusher this year. Send him to Dallas for 17 and 82 leave the first round with Thomas/Wirfs at 11, and Riggs/Higgins at 17. Would give us 3, 3rd round picks and a 2nd to invest in the OL as well as CB/Edge. I’m not a Jamal hater by any means but a box safety at 15mil is a luxury we can’t afford right now 

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15 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

I don't need to be mature about this. It's the internet and we're playing a game of advanced guess who (the Jets will sign)

lol bustin balls, but I do encourage the younger posters that like to dig into details... 

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1 hour ago, Doggin94it said:

Yep. Got to be convinced that any of the 5 can come in and play LT day 1. If you're not, you have to bring back Beachum or someone else, or be ok with (gulp) Edoga as the kid learns. But this crop looks really special - and ready

No one has any problem with spending multiple picks to move up to get your Franchise QB.  But this year, I have seen SO much resistance to moving up to get a Franchise LT.  If you have 3 guys you love, and 2 you don't, and one of those 3 is still available at 9, then doing some pick-swapping with JAX to move up and get him seems like a no-brainer.  Yes, we all want more picks.  We all know we have lots of holes to fill.  But would you rather have an 80% chance of getting your franchise LT, or a 50% chance of getting him and an extra mid-3rd round pick.  I think the value is such the you might even be able to get a lower round pick back to keep the number of picks the same.  It's weird how conditioned some of us have become to being all about hoarding picks, trading back for more picks, but not thinking of turning those picks into great players that can help us win championships.

To me, this the year we get perhaps the 2nd or 3rd most important position on the field.  And if we have to pay a little bit more, then bite down hard and get it done right.  Or you could sit tight and watch CLE draft Wirfs, leaving you with Becton (or some other combination of those players that results in you being disappointed). 

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18 minutes ago, nycdan said:

No one has any problem with spending multiple picks to move up to get your Franchise QB.  But this year, I have seen SO much resistance to moving up to get a Franchise LT.  If you have 3 guys you love, and 2 you don't, and one of those 3 is still available at 9, then doing some pick-swapping with JAX to move up and get him seems like a no-brainer.  Yes, we all want more picks.  We all know we have lots of holes to fill.  But would you rather have an 80% chance of getting your franchise LT, or a 50% chance of getting him and an extra mid-3rd round pick.  I think the value is such the you might even be able to get a lower round pick back to keep the number of picks the same.  It's weird how conditioned some of us have become to being all about hoarding picks, trading back for more picks, but not thinking of turning those picks into great players that can help us win championships.

To me, this the year we get perhaps the 2nd or 3rd most important position on the field.  And if we have to pay a little bit more, then bite down hard and get it done right.  Or you could sit tight and watch CLE draft Wirfs, leaving you with Becton (or some other combination of those players that results in you being disappointed). 

All depends on the distance in the grading. I've seen analysts convinced Becton will be the best OT in the draft. If you have them graded really close together, you can sit and wait. Or if you have a drop off, but the drop off is from "I think this guy's a HoFer" to "I think the next guy is a ten year starter". But if you've got a real disparity in your grades, yeah, move on up.

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