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Agoldstein54

Maybe its Nostalgia

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I recently decided to rewatch the 2010 AFC playoffs with wins over the Colts, Patriots, and then a loss to the Steelers. I guess I wanted to see how that team was so different than the team we are currently fielding. I came away with a few take aways. 

1. We ran to set up the pass

2. We had a great line, BUT we also used a 6th offensive lineman, and a Fullback on a large percentage of plays

3. We were excellent at disguising runs and passes (play actions were very convincing) 

4. We had special wildcat packages that were very effective ran by Brad Smith

5. The defense was GAME PLAN SPECIFIC 

6. Our secondary was built around our Cornerbacks, and not safeties (Eric Smith, Jim Leonard, Pool, Inhedigbo) pretty much no name guys

 

I think if we Implement some of this into what we currently do, we will be a much better team. Yes, the NFL has moved to a pass first, pass happy league, but I still don't think that is our best path to winning. I

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6 minutes ago, Agoldstein54 said:

Yes, the NFL has moved to a pass first, pass happy league, but I still don't think that is our best path to winning. I

Titans didn’t get to the AFCCG off of Ryan Tannehill’s arm and the 9ers beat the Packers to death, resurrected them and beat them to death again off the strength of Mosert’s legs And 7 or 8 Jimmy G passes. Running is still alive and well if you’re setting the pass up with it.

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6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

lol do you even watch football bro that's not how you build a secondary.  You pay the box safety $17M per and then profit.

HEY HIS NICKNAME IS PREZ. PAY HIM MORE THAN DEANDRE HOPKINS 

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10 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

lol do you even watch football bro that's not how you build a secondary.  You pay the box safety $17M per and then profit.

this post was not about or a swipe at jamal adams. I just think some of the logic we are going by nowadays is to follow what everyone else in the league is doing. I think we should go against it. Directly against it. defenses now a days are not set up to be able to handle a ground attack like we had. The teams that ran the ball that way went into the playoffs and had legit chances to win because of it.

and part of the post is also explaining how we accomplished running that ball like that. It wasn because we had the youngest best back in the league. We had an old guy who was at the end of the tunnel.. but we utilized that extra lineman, the fullback, and then we would play action out of the same formations. Imagine being able to do that with darnold, who is a better thrower than sanchez. help darnold by taking things off his plate, but also making him a lot more confusing to deal with for defenses. 

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I mean the biggest difference by far was that team had an elite offensive line that dominated in the running game and this team has a historically bad offensive line that cannot run the ball at all.

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1 hour ago, Patriot Killa said:

Titans didn’t get to the AFCCG off of Ryan Tannehill’s arm and the 9ers beat the Packers to death, resurrected them and beat them to death again off the strength of Mosert’s legs And 7 or 8 Jimmy G passes. Running is still alive and well if you’re setting the pass up with it.

The Titans were 2-4 and dead in the water until they benched Mariota and started scoring 30 PPG with one of the best air attacks in the NFL.

Ryan Tannehill's arm was a very big part of them getting to the AFCCG, because you kinda have to make the playoffs to advance to the championship game.

 

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1 minute ago, Skeet Ulrich said:

The Titans were 2-4 and dead in the water until they benched Mariota and started scoring 30 PPG with one of the best air attacks in the NFL.

Ryan Tannehill's arm was a very big part of them getting to the AFCCG, because you kinda have to make the playoffs to advance to the championship game.

 

Clearly you missed the part where I said...

1 hour ago, Patriot Killa said:

Running is still alive and well if you’re setting the pass up with it.

 

I was specifically talking about the Patriots and Ravens games when I mentioned Ryan’s arm.

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The first three sound very similar to the way the 49ers built their offense.

Number 4 has been replaced to some extent by QBs with designed run plays (i.e. Watson, Tannehill, Taysom Hill)

 

Number 5 requires talented players that can be utilized in multiple ways.  With all the injuries this past season, the defense needed to resort to guys with limited experience and scheming to play at their strengths.  With guys like Mosley, Adams, and even guys like Anderson on the line, the ability to be game specific will be easier.  Gregg Williams talked about this in the beginning of the year, where he was asking players to play multiple positions, which would allow him to have various defensive fronts and schemes.

Number 6 is key to implement number 5.  Having CBs that can hold their own without safety or linebacker help, frees up those players to move around the formation and create mismatches.  Instead of reacting to what the offense is doing, you are forcing the offense to react to what the defense is doing.  Rex Ryan and Gregg Williams share that same attacking defense philosophy.

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I actually think you could make a very reasonable argument that it isn't a pass happy league anymore.  It's still a QB driven league, but I do think offenses are shifting away from the pass happy game plan of 5-10 years ago.

Look no further than the two assumed best young offensive minds in the game in McVay and Shanahan.  Both of their offenses are predicated on running the ball and indiscernible play action passing.  Add in the heavy use of too and zone read around the league, I'd argue modern offense is more centered around the run game than it has been in 20 years or more 

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I copied this from ganggreennation written by John B

“You run to set up the pass.” Other than “Defense wins championships,” it is probably the most overused cliche in the NFL.

Is it accurate? Every so often I like to take a look at how teams build their offenses.

I think one of the best ways to see what teams are trying to establish on offense is to look at their tendencies in the first quarter of games. If you actually are trying to run to set up the pass, it stands to reason you would run the ball frequently in the early stage of the game.

Using the Pro Football Reference Play Index and some math, I crunched first quarter tendencies.

Here are the results I found. I will term teams that run the ball at least 55% of the time are running to set up the pass. Teams that run the ball between 45% and 55% of the time are balanced, showing no tendency. Teams that run the ball less than 45% of the time are really passing to set up the run.

These are first quarter run rates.

Run to set up the pass

Baltimore 59.69%

Balanced

Philadelphia 49.40%

Seattle 48.28%

Minnesota 48%

Detroit 47.74%

Oakland 47.48%

Washington 46.12%

Pittsburgh 45.64%

Indianapolis 45.63%

NY Giants 45.51%

San Francisco 45.13%

Pass to set up the run

Carolina 44.87%

Tennessee 44.72%

Dallas 44.53%

Cincinnati 44.34%

Denver 44.29%

NY Jets 44.21%

Buffalo 43.98%

Jacksonville 43.92%

Arizona 43.24%

New England 43.08%

Tampa Bay 42.51%

LA Chargers 42.47%

Houston 42.34%

Chicago 42.01%

Atlanta 41.13%

Cleveland 40.24%

LA Rams 39.91%

New Orleans 39.6%

Green Bay 38.6%

Miami 37.5%

Kansas City 32.89%

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3 minutes ago, Agoldstein54 said:

I copied this from ganggreennation written by John B

“You run to set up the pass.” Other than “Defense wins championships,” it is probably the most overused cliche in the NFL.

Is it accurate? Every so often I like to take a look at how teams build their offenses.

I think one of the best ways to see what teams are trying to establish on offense is to look at their tendencies in the first quarter of games. If you actually are trying to run to set up the pass, it stands to reason you would run the ball frequently in the early stage of the game.

Using the Pro Football Reference Play Index and some math, I crunched first quarter tendencies.

Here are the results I found. I will term teams that run the ball at least 55% of the time are running to set up the pass. Teams that run the ball between 45% and 55% of the time are balanced, showing no tendency. Teams that run the ball less than 45% of the time are really passing to set up the run.

These are first quarter run rates.

Run to set up the pass

Baltimore 59.69%

Balanced

Philadelphia 49.40%

Seattle 48.28%

Minnesota 48%

Detroit 47.74%

Oakland 47.48%

Washington 46.12%

Pittsburgh 45.64%

Indianapolis 45.63%

NY Giants 45.51%

San Francisco 45.13%

Pass to set up the run

Carolina 44.87%

Tennessee 44.72%

Dallas 44.53%

Cincinnati 44.34%

Denver 44.29%

NY Jets 44.21%

Buffalo 43.98%

Jacksonville 43.92%

Arizona 43.24%

New England 43.08%

Tampa Bay 42.51%

LA Chargers 42.47%

Houston 42.34%

Chicago 42.01%

Atlanta 41.13%

Cleveland 40.24%

LA Rams 39.91%

New Orleans 39.6%

Green Bay 38.6%

Miami 37.5%

Kansas City 32.89%

Lol there is no tangible difference between 40% pass and 50% pass 

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1 hour ago, Agoldstein54 said:

I recently decided to rewatch the 2010 AFC playoffs with wins over the Colts, Patriots, and then a loss to the Steelers. I guess I wanted to see how that team was so different than the team we are currently fielding. I came away with a few take aways. 

1. We ran to set up the pass

2. We had a great line, BUT we also used a 6th offensive lineman, and a Fullback on a large percentage of plays

3. We were excellent at disguising runs and passes (play actions were very convincing) 

4. We had special wildcat packages that were very effective ran by Brad Smith

5. The defense was GAME PLAN SPECIFIC 

6. Our secondary was built around our Cornerbacks, and not safeties (Eric Smith, Jim Leonard, Pool, Inhedigbo) pretty much no name guys

 

I think if we Implement some of this into what we currently do, we will be a much better team. Yes, the NFL has moved to a pass first, pass happy league, but I still don't think that is our best path to winning. I

i think this is the best way to win with a MEH QB...    so yeah, we should do this cos I tyhink our our guy is middle of the pack on average...

(good gamesd will look like a top 10 guy, bad ones a bottom 10 guy)

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1 minute ago, nico002 said:

Lol there is no tangible difference between 40% pass and 50% pass 

That's actually a pretty significant difference.  I'm sure folks like @Sperm Edwards and @RutgersJetFan could tell you how many standard deviations away that is.  

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2 hours ago, Agoldstein54 said:

Yes, the NFL has moved to a pass first, pass happy league, but I still don't think that is our best path to winning. 

So........ignoring that the NFL of 2010 isn't the NFL of 2020.......what IS, in your view, the "best path to winning"?

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i was simply looking at those numbers and thought, that means there were 3 to 4 times per game in the first quarter we were passing when we should have been running. Asking the qb to do too much, making it too easy on the defense, not wearing them down. 

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3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

That's actually a pretty significant difference.  I'm sure folks like @Sperm Edwards and @RutgersJetFan could tell you how many standard deviations away that is.  

You were lecturing me about how numbers work just a few weeks ago. Surely you can figure it out yourself given your expertise.

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8 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

That's actually a pretty significant difference.  I'm sure folks like @Sperm Edwards and @RutgersJetFan could tell you how many standard deviations away that is.  

If you want to be in these conversations and give your opinions, then you tell us how many standard deviations away there are, or just stay out of the conversation. Otherwise your opinion is mute if you have to rely on someone else to explain your argument.

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4 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

You were lecturing me about how numbers work just a few weeks ago. Surely you can figure it out yourself given your expertise.

I was?

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Just now, Eaton Beaver said:

If you want to be in these conversations and give your opinions, then you tell us how many standard deviations away there are, or just stay out of the conversation.

Tough crowd.

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23 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

I actually think you could make a very reasonable argument that it isn't a pass happy league anymore.  It's still a QB driven league, but I do think offenses are shifting away from the pass happy game plan of 5-10 years ago.

Look no further than the two assumed best young offensive minds in the game in McVay and Shanahan.  Both of their offenses are predicated on running the ball and indiscernible play action passing.  Add in the heavy use of too and zone read around the league, I'd argue modern offense is more centered around the run game than it has been in 20 years or more 

I think two things

1) Balance always has been and always will be important. Misdirection and forcing defenses to compensate for either aspect of the game is always key to being successful.

2) As defenses got lighter and faster and played more nickel as a base teams that actually had an "old school" offense had a competitive advantage against these smaller defenses. Zig when everyone else zags.

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1 minute ago, RutgersJetFan said:

You were lecturing me about how numbers work just a few weeks ago. Surely you can figure it out yourself given your expertise.

nba all star oh snap GIF by NBA

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3 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I think two things

1) Balance always has been and always will be important. Misdirection and forcing defenses to compensate for either aspect of the game is always key to being successful.

2) As defenses got lighter and faster and played more nickel as a base teams that actually had an "old school" offense had a competitive advantage against these smaller defenses. Zig when everyone else zags.

and additionally, i think we the jets got very obsessed with the idea of having great safteys because we were competing with the patriots who had great tight end play over the years and we were constantly abused by it. The whole idea of the safteys were to be able to cover those gronks, or kittle or kelces man on man. Yet we don't use our safteys like that at all. 

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11 minutes ago, Eaton Beaver said:

If you want to be in these conversations and give your opinions, then you tell us how many standard deviations away there are, or just stay out of the conversation. Otherwise your opinion is mute if you have to rely on someone else to explain your argument.

Moot.  Might as well just turn this thread into a donnybrook of message board etiquette.  

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1 hour ago, Patriot Killa said:

Clearly you missed the part where I said...

 

I was specifically talking about the Patriots and Ravens games when I mentioned Ryan’s arm.

A two game sample size where the gameplan dictated leaning on the run doesn't negate the fact that Tannehill had an amazing season THROWING the football and was the biggest reason they got to the playoffs. The Titans scored 30 PPG with Tannehill at QB and had an amazing air attack.

We tend to be victims of the moment, that's why you had people here saying Derrick Henry was the MVP of the league off of 8 games where he wasn't totally useless. Good luck to the team that gives him a huge contract, as an aside.

 

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TheY used to say the most popular guy in an NFL city is the backup QB. For us, it’s always a previous regime that gets rehabilitated by the escalating suck of each successive one. 

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3 minutes ago, Skeet Ulrich said:

A two game sample size where the gameplan dictated leaning on the run doesn't negate the fact that Tannehill had an amazing season THROWING the football and was the biggest reason they got to the playoffs. The Titans scored 30 PPG with Tannehill at QB and had an amazing air attack.

We tend to be victims of the moment, that's why you had people here saying Derrick Henry was the MVP of the league off of 8 games where he wasn't totally useless. Good luck to the team that gives him a huge contract, as an aside.

 

He had an efficient season throwing the football, not amazing. 

Their style of play never changed, they still used the run to set up PA.

I think it’s obvious Tannehill threw the ball pretty well. Their run plays vs pass play %’s don’t suggest that they aired it out at all.

Tennessee’s pass play % was ranked 30th and their run play % was 3rd.

081E06CD-3EAE-41E3-BCE3-6ED7D6CA7955.jpeg

6CC700D2-380A-4F72-B89B-14DAD8E5C9F0.jpeg

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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

That's actually a pretty significant difference.  I'm sure folks like @Sperm Edwards and @RutgersJetFan could tell you how many standard deviations away that is.  

No it’s not, it’s also totally dependent on the type of pass and when the pass is happening. 1st quarter passing % are dumb, what matters is early down passing. Is it a screen pass? A pass 20 yards down the field? The fact that it’s technically recorded as a pass is arbitrary.

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13 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

He had an efficient season throwing the football, not amazing. 

Their style of play never changed, they still used the run to set up PA.

I think it’s obvious Tannehill threw the ball pretty well. Their run plays vs pass play %’s don’t suggest that they aired it out at all.

Tennessee’s pass play % was ranked 30th and their run play % was 3rd.

081E06CD-3EAE-41E3-BCE3-6ED7D6CA7955.jpeg

6CC700D2-380A-4F72-B89B-14DAD8E5C9F0.jpeg

You're looking at stats that have Mariota bundled into them(he stinks, in case you didn't know).

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/patriots/2019/12/31/patriots-titans-preview-film-ryan-tannehill-derrick-henry-brown/mYtbZ8HXXDdn3cKRK3sPYN/story.html

Titans led the league in YPA and passer rating once Tannehill took over.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Skeet Ulrich said:

You're looking at stats that have Mariota bundled into them(he stinks, in case you didn't know).

 

 

He played 25% of the season... 6 out of 16 doesn’t really do much to budge either %.

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Just now, Patriot Killa said:

He played 25% of the season... 6 out of 16 doesn’t really do much to budge either %.

Closer to 40%.

 

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How about we build an offense that can pass against sh*tty secondaries & attack the hell out of them so we get big leads & let the dogs out on defense & Run against sh*tty run defense teams & play keep away & score in the Redzone.

How about we do that! Sign Cooper, & 2 Big fatties, draft another big Fatty or stud WR in the 1st, a stud RB & lets start running, passing, scoring. How about that?

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