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The hidden elephant in the draft room


JohnnyLV

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I'm happy if Douglas never utters the phrase "best player available."  Every GM has hits and misses. I hope JD's philosophy addresses positional need, accepting that some picks will be better than others and that there really is no such thing as a "can't miss" prospect...

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1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

 

You can’t handle the truth! SAR, you root for a team that has flaws, and those flaws have to be fixed by men with draft picks. Whose gonna do it, you? You Lieutenant Weinberg? You T0m Shane? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Darnold and you curse Maccagnan. You have the luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know, that Darnold's mono while tragic, probably saved this team; and my existence while grotesque, and incomprehensible, to you, saves this team. You don’t want the truth because deep down in places you don’t talk about at parties, you want me in that War Room, you need me in that War Room! We use words like arm talent, shuttle times, positional flexibility. We use these words as the backbone of a life spent analyzing players, you use them as a punchline. I have neither the time, nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and comes to MetLife Stadium to watch Jets players, and then questions the manner in which I draft them! I’d rather you just said ‘thank you’, paid your PSL and went on your way. Otherwise I suggest you pick up a stopwatch, and head to Indianapolis. Either way, I don’t give a damn how many W's you think you are entitled to!

- Colonel Joseph Douglas

 

I just wanted to quote this. this is ******* great. That movie is awesome.

Also great selection of a signature picture. You basically honor of my profile every time you post. Well done.

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6 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

We could have saved the jets a ton of money in the idzik and mccagnan draft years by just using the jet nation yearly mock draft which would have been twice as good as the jokers drafting for us.

I wonder if anyone has matched them up. Coudl we have actually picked the guys that were suggested. Have them been good players...etc..

 

I would just guess and say that you are most liekly right 100% but it would be nice to know. did Jet nation draft better than Macc etc..

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16 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

We could have saved the jets a ton of money in the idzik and mccagnan draft years by just using the jet nation yearly mock draft which would have been twice as good as the jokers drafting for us.

Indeed. Macc did it exactly backwards. Draft low-upside “consensus BAP” in the top of round 1 and take wild swings in rounds 2-7. 

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24 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

We could have saved the jets a ton of money in the idzik and mccagnan draft years by just using the jet nation yearly mock draft which would have been twice as good as the jokers drafting for us.

I did it for 2014.   

We only went 4 rounds.  It isn't apples to apples because the poster @NYJetsVets91 selected Bortles and Kirksey at slots where they were already gone in the actual draft, but the poster slaughtered Idzik.   In an apples-to-apples, they both took a TE-CB-WR in the same slots and went 1-13-0 (Niklas-Desir-Herron) compared to 4-2-0 (Amaro-McDougle-Saunders).   

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Ismt it fairly common to retain your low level scouts even after a regime change?  Regional.scouts and cross checkers get replaced all the time... but has any owner or GM just sacked the entire department after a draft?  Can think of a few owners in NFL history capable of that but usually you only hear about the chief execs.

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2 hours ago, johnnysd said:

Like everyone else I am very pleased with the fact that Mac is gone, and I think Douglas is a completely different level of GM potentially in terms of experience and capability.

But here is what worries me and what nobody is discussing:

We still have the same scouting department

Neither Idzik or Mac made any significant changes to the scouting department primarily scout standpoint.

At the end of the day we hope Douglas will be better at evaluating talent, and choosing both the right players in the draft and in pro personal moves, but much of that still starts with the evaluations of the scouts in the field.

Douglas has said that he wants to change the language of the scouting department so that college and pro players are evaluated equally but that will take time to implement and we have not seen much movement in scouting and likely won't until after this first draft.

Remember this is a scouting department that signed off on Polite, Hackenburg and a litany of others as draftable prospects. A staff that rated Adams higher than Watson and Mahomes. Sure Mac made those choices but does anyone really believe they were completely in a vaccuum?

I am really concerned that our entire player evaluation scheme is flawed and even with a better GM the inputs he gets will lead to making bad draft decisions again.

 

 

 

But we don't.  There has been a huge turnover in the scouting department over the last few years.  Mac was sorely disliked and many scouts were either dismissed or left for better opportunities.  And that's not just the college scouts, the pro player scouts have had a turnover as well, even though the Pro Player scouts have actually done excellent work in filling out the holes poor drafting has caused over the years.  Scouts report what tape reveals, the GM then takes those reports and weighs the tape, measurables, combine results and interviews when creating their board.  Some even take coach's requests (Coples, John Connor, Sanchez's college buddy).  So in the end it comes down to the GM.  The Jets college scouting department valued  guys like Russell Wilson and Alvin Kamara.  They were over-ruled by the GM.  So its not the scouts per-se.  Bottom line is with the information available today from major reporting outlets and metrics sights, youtube tape and highlights, etc., there is enough to judge value in some degree even without the scouting department.  The scouts are there to find the hidden gems, or possible flame-outs.  Polite should have been Winovich for sure, and most of us knew that without a scouting report.  Sometimes it just comes down to luck, other times it comes down to a GM that knows how judge personnel at a more successful rate than others.  But I wouldn't worry about the scouts.  They are not as high on the personnel food chain as you might think.

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The reason I have been supportive of JD is not just because of him-it is because of the more serious infrastructure below him.

It is possible that the scouts on the ground were retained, because 1) who wants to fire people and 2) the Johnsons likely do have a budget.  JD was way above budget.  So were likely Alexander, Hogan and Savage.

I understand that the Jets do not appear to be buying in to analytics as deeply as other teams.  I don't see that as being JD's thing.  Let's see how that works out. 

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5 hours ago, johnnysd said:

Like everyone else I am very pleased with the fact that Mac is gone, and I think Douglas is a completely different level of GM potentially in terms of experience and capability.

But here is what worries me and what nobody is discussing:

We still have the same scouting department

Neither Idzik or Mac made any significant changes to the scouting department primarily scout standpoint.

At the end of the day we hope Douglas will be better at evaluating talent, and choosing both the right players in the draft and in pro personal moves, but much of that still starts with the evaluations of the scouts in the field.

Douglas has said that he wants to change the language of the scouting department so that college and pro players are evaluated equally but that will take time to implement and we have not seen much movement in scouting and likely won't until after this first draft.

Remember this is a scouting department that signed off on Polite, Hackenburg and a litany of others as draftable prospects. A staff that rated Adams higher than Watson and Mahomes. Sure Mac made those choices but does anyone really believe they were completely in a vaccuum?

I am really concerned that our entire player evaluation scheme is flawed and even with a better GM the inputs he gets will lead to making bad draft decisions again.

 

 

 

it's an interesting and valid point you're making. My feeling is because JD has a 6 year deal he's taking a wait and see approach. He wants to know what guys are truly the guys that have an eye for talent? Either way, the experimentation period is over after the draft. JD will have an idea of who he'd like to retain. AND I don't believe for a second that the scouting dept signed off on drafting Polite. That's simply a conclusion that you've jumped to. ALL of Mac's piss poor picks have been a product of Mac being an incompetent a$$hole.

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6 minutes ago, NYJ1 said:

it's an interesting and valid point you're making. My feeling is because JD has a 6 year deal he's taking a wait and see approach. He wants to know what guys are truly the guys that have an eye for talent? Either way, the experimentation period is over after the draft. JD will have an idea of who he'd like to retain. AND I don't believe for a second that the scouting dept signed off on drafting Polite. That's simply a conclusion that you've jumped to. ALL of Mac's piss poor picks have been a product of Mac being an incompetent a$$hole.

We literally have no idea about anything about Joe Douglas.

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On 2/21/2020 at 2:05 PM, section314 said:

Douglass probably made some changes, and may have kept some guys too. He's been around, sounds like he worked hard on his way up, so probably knows good scouts/ evaluators when he sees them. Some guys that were on staff he may have kept because he knows their talent. Remember, it sounds like Macc pretty much was a one man show during the whole draft process so I doubt he really put a ton of faith in what the scouts, or coaches, felt, unless they were in virtual agreement with him.

Right. When we were shown what the Colts, Bills and Cowboys draft rooms looked like it was a stark difference from the cold and quiet environment the Red Box sponsored Jets war room had going on. 

A couple guys there on the phone in what looked  like the back room at a Chucky Cheese.  But the scouts were nowhere to be found. 

Rex Hogan was inside that wonderfully inclusive Colts War room and Douglas was over in Philly. I'm sure we're seeing changes with how this thing is run. 

But they fired two scouts AND Heimerdinger and Macchiato's. 

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2 hours ago, GREENBEAN said:

Right. When we were shown what the Colts, Bills and Cowboys draft rooms looked like it was a stark difference from the cold and quiet environment the Red Box sponsored Jets war room had going on. 

A couple guys there on the phone in what looked  like the back room at a Chucky Cheese.  But the scouts were nowhere to be found. 

Rex Hogan was indie that wonderfully inclusive Colts War room and Douglas was over in Philly. I'm sure we're seeing changes with how this thing is run. 

But they fired two scouts AND Heimerdinger and Macchiato's. 

We can only hope, brother.?

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I believe Douglas wants to build the locker-room around high character guys like Steve Mc and will draft players based on that type of quality.

I don't see him taking a Polite type of player or even wasting a 7th rounder on someone like that.  Look at what Williams did with the defensive side with players who were 5th and 6th stringers on the roster all good ability but what separated them was they bought into the team first mentality and left their ego's out.   

With this said it's his first draft and control over the roster in free agency.  We will see shortly how it all plays out.  

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8 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Ok, I just took a look at both links. 
 

Can you elaborate on exactly what it is you think these prove?

The Eagles have hired a bevy of Ivy nerds to head up their analytics team to supplement the old school scouting dept. Berry was just poached and Tepper just recently took one to Carolina. Their football ops staff is just bigger and a bit more diverse in their duties. Roseman has a lot of pull and Lurie wants to win. Savage and Hogan while probably solid old school scouts, are eye test guys.

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7 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

The Eagles have hired a bevy of Ivy nerds to head up their analytics team to supplement the old school scouting dept. Berry was just poached and Tepper just recently took one to Carolina. Their football ops staff is just bigger and a bit more diverse in their duties. Roseman has a lot of pull and Lurie wants to win. Savage and Hogan while probably solid old school scouts, are eye test guys.

And you know this how?  Some of this stuff you come up with and try to pass off as fact is simply your uninformed opinion and feelings.  

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