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Jordan Jenkins value

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On 1/24/2020 at 9:50 AM, Sperm Edwards said:

It's pretty simple. Coverage/"layup" numbers or not, since they all get them, 7 then 8 sacks for a starting OLB will get him over $10MM/year as a UFA. 

  • If the Jets extend him, it'll be at $12MM/year, and then his sack production will dip back down to the 3-sack range again
  • If he signs elsewhere it'll be at $11MM/year, and after we're done high-5'ing each other and laughing at it all offseason, his sack numbers will jump to 12 on his new team, making his adjusted $ value in the $15MM+/year range

So which do you choose?

Still think $10-12MM/year sounds about right, in this market. 

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With what Tarell Basham showed last year I won't be shocked if Douglas 
gives him Jenkins job and uses his $$$ elsewhere

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5 minutes ago, KRL said:

With what Tarell Basham showed last year I won't be shocked if Douglas 
gives him Jenkins job and uses his $$$ elsewhere

A guy outperformed expectations? Dump him!

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i wouldn't offer him more than 6-7 million. I think basham can start on one side, and on the other I think we should make kamali correa a priority. He is perfect to platoon with kyle phillips as an early down guy. 

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1 minute ago, Agoldstein54 said:

i wouldn't offer him more than 6-7 million. I think basham can start on one side, and on the other I think we should make kamali correa a priority. He is perfect to platoon with kyle phillips as an early down guy. 

Yeah a team of silly putty and string is a good idea

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Just now, 14 in Green said:

I mean WHO exactly are some of these guys willing to pay?

I mean, besides someone some other team is letting go, who's either disappointed, or is coming off Lisfranc surgery?

Jets fans are too clever by half.

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14 minutes ago, jgb said:

A guy outperformed expectations? Dump him!

9fb5392a6d63ce38bcd4cfb3b63604f8.jpg.93e0e42d76b8e2fb89d14a7cf43be3bd.jpg

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basham has a higher win percentage on pass rush attempts than jenkins. Kyle phillips is ELITE as a run stopping edge. He can play on early downs. We need someone to be a role player. Sure a star would be nice, but we cannot afford one. We need to utilize players that are young and cheap, and that provided little drop off when jenkins was injured. 

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10 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

I mean WHO exactly are some of these guys willing to pay?

I mean, besides the guy some other team is letting go, who's either disappointed, or is coming off Lisfranc surgery?

Insert they for i.giphy.gif.7d9ca72314d634e542d424da9af111d0.gif

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5 hours ago, genot said:

9fb5392a6d63ce38bcd4cfb3b63604f8.jpg.93e0e42d76b8e2fb89d14a7cf43be3bd.jpg

People think we can build a Nordstrom's team at a Wal-Mart price...

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21 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

I mean WHO exactly are some of these guys willing to pay?

I mean, besides the guy some other team is letting go, who's either disappointed, or is coming off Lisfranc surgery?

Our front office is diligently looking for the next Trumaine Johnson or Wilkerson to sign. 

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Just now, jgb said:

People think we can build a Nordstrom's team at Wal-Mart prices...

That's obviously a big part of it, but what amazes me is how badly they read the market for FA's, what they'll cost despite what they've done.

Guys were on the verge of passing out in the thread today where the DL is asking 22 million. "Uh no... I could see giving him 12...." "but, but... no I think we're going to have to pass at that price..." :dohslap:

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1 minute ago, Creepy Lurker said:

Our front office is diligently looking for the next Trumaine Johnson or Wilkerson to sign. 

No stone will go unturned...

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I would re-sign Jenkins AND Basham. Tbh you don’t have to just pick one in this case. Basham will come much cheaper.

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41 minutes ago, KRL said:

With what Tarell Basham showed last year I won't be shocked if Douglas 
gives him Jenkins job and uses his $$$ elsewhere

They’re resigning him. Only a matter of when. Unless they e changed their mind from the last I heard. 

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Look at a player and think if another guy can do his job at the same or lower price.

I like Jenkins, he gets a reasonable # of sacks but you do not have to game plan for him and others could replace those sacks imo.

Don;t over pay for medium players.

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9 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

I would re-sign Jenkins AND Basham. Tbh you don’t have to just pick one in this case. Basham will come much cheaper.

basham is under contract. And is dirt cheap

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2 minutes ago, Agoldstein54 said:

basham is under contract. And is dirt cheap

No contract year? Even better. Sign Jenkins back and find a decent mid-level starter to fill the other side.

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20 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

That's obviously a big part of it, but what amazes me is how badly they read the market for FA's, what they'll cost despite what they've done.

Guys were on the verge of passing out in the thread today where the DL is asking 22 million. "Uh no... I could see giving him 12...." "but, but... no I think we're going to have to pass at that price..." :dohslap:

It's very Idzikian to believe that your approach can define the market when in reality, the market defines your approach.

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i don't think that is the point. I think the point is, that by almost any metric, regardless of what the "market value" is, 22 million a year is not worth it for the amount of production he provides. it doesn't matter what number we would be willing to offer, we have too many holes to think that paying one guy massive bucks will cover for all the other mediocrity. just the same way "only" 12 mi per year for jenkins is not worth it also. 

we had two guys off the street last year play decently. We should ride with them unless we find someone to bring in at a good value.

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2 hours ago, Agoldstein54 said:

i don't think that is the point. I think the point is, that by almost any metric, regardless of what the "market value" is, 22 million a year is not worth it for the amount of production he provides. it doesn't matter what number we would be willing to offer, we have too many holes to think that paying one guy massive bucks will cover for all the other mediocrity. just the same way "only" 12 mi per year for jenkins is not worth it also. 

we had two guys off the street last year play decently. We should ride with them unless we find someone to bring in at a good value.

The quickest way for a Jets fan to turn on a Jets player: they outplay their contract.

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we would be better off signing a starting offensive lineman for that 12 million a year, and then finding a guy off the scrap heap that can get 8 sacks and be a body for a year (the next shaq barrett- kimali correa) and compete with a rookie or hold the place for a future draft pick. 

i don't consider jenkins as having overplayed his contract, he provided decent return for where he was picked. But for what he could command on the market going forward, its straight forward, is there someone else who is cheaper that could do the same thing. The answer is yes

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What is this "22 million" offer?

"I would look at a player and think if I could get someone else to produce at the same level I would go with the cheaper player..."

Hmm, but are you actually getting the same value based solely on sacks? Sacks are really not all that critical to good defense. Even when the Jets won in 2009 and 2010, they weren't great sackers. They played great fundamental defense and used the overload blitz to generate pressure. It was very effective, and, IMO, more reliable than having a single guy an offense needs to scheme against.

So, I don't have a great knowledge of the exact offer (or non offer) that is appropriate for Jenkins. BUT, aside from sacks, Jenkins has shown an ability to set the edge and, of course, there's the notion that if the players think that a GM is going to take/keep the cheapest player(s) possible, well, nobody will be looking to play for the NY Jets.

I know it's easy to think in terms of if it was your own, PERSONAL money. But it's really about building a team. So, paying FAIR salaries is important to get and retain talent of all kinds, elite and otherwise.

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Jenkins is going to get $10-11 per seaon and is worth that as a solid all around OLB who should do better if we actually had anyone else who was halfway decent as a pass rusher. 

If Yannick Ngakoue is looking for $22 million per year, Jenkins is actually a decent value at $10 million.  Sure Ngakoue is a much better pass rusher, and as previously mentioned is someone teams to need to gameplay for, but if he is a 12 sack guy at that price, im happy to pay $10 million for a high character player who can get 7-8 sacks and play the run well.  

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1 hour ago, BCJet said:

Jenkins is going to get $10-11 per seaon and is worth that as a solid all around OLB who should do better if we actually had anyone else who was halfway decent as a pass rusher. 

If Yannick Ngakoue is looking for $22 million per year, Jenkins is actually a decent value at $10 million.  Sure Ngakoue is a much better pass rusher, and as previously mentioned is someone teams to need to gameplay for, but if he is a 12 sack guy at that price, im happy to pay $10 million for a high character player who can get 7-8 sacks and play the run well.  

Sign Jenkins for $10-12M per year and Draft either Zach Baun, Josh Uche or Kenny Willekes somewhere in Rounds 2-5.

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Each NFL team has a salary cap and floor, and more than half the team could theoretically be cheap draft picks.  Someone needs to get paid. Jenkins could be that guy. 

I thought the Jaguars drafted Josh Allen to replace Yannick.  The Jets should have drafted Josh Allen.  They are similar players.  Allen may be better against the run 

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Is there any player on our team we are have a consensus opinion about about paying?  Or do they all suck?

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There should be a consensus to pay Adams. You have a Top, passionate, energetic young draft pick that actually panned out after years of dud drafts. Pay ur guys!

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2 minutes ago, NOSIDE said:

There should be a consensus to pay Adams. You have a Top, passionate, energetic young draft pick that actually panned out after years of dud drafts. Pay ur guys!

Quantify that, please.  

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I love the strategy of cutting or trading all of our stars so we can have a team full of modestly talented but highly cost-effective guys and $50MM of cap room we can't spend because there aren't enough FAs out there who want to play on a team with no other stars.  It gives me goose bumps just thinking about it.

 

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