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Jordan Jenkins value


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the whole idea that a team needs to pay a ton for a player is bizarre.  jets fans should be well aware of the guys like trumaine, revis, wilky, etc who get paid a ton and don't produce.  jenkins is a good player but he was overshadowed at times by a number of younger and less expensive players during the season.  and it's not like jenkins is getting any younger.  we all may wish we were his age again but he's also a football player and it has to have taken its toll. imo if jenkins gets a fair offer and chooses to walk then the jets shouldn't try to chase him.  likewise if jenkins comes in with a fair offer then the jets shouldn't simply ignore it.  

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10 minutes ago, rangerous said:

the whole idea that a team needs to pay a ton for a player is bizarre.  jets fans should be well aware of the guys like trumaine, revis, wilky, etc who get paid a ton and don't produce.  jenkins is a good player but he was overshadowed at times by a number of younger and less expensive players during the season.  and it's not like jenkins is getting any younger.  we all may wish we were his age again but he's also a football player and it has to have taken its toll. imo if jenkins gets a fair offer and chooses to walk then the jets shouldn't try to chase him.  likewise if jenkins comes in with a fair offer then the jets shouldn't simply ignore it.  

For every Trumaine, and Wilks, there are players who get rewarded, and still produce. look at the eagles. one team. Peters, Cox, Jason Kelce, Brandon Graham. Everyone who works for a living wants to get rewarded for the good work they've done. I don't know what you consider a ton of money to be. the market, determines someones value. That's why when you have players that produce, and are team players, you extend them before they hit the market. There's always some team, for whatever reason will pay more than the fair vlaue for a player.

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Quantify it? He is arguably the best safety in the league. He is passionate and wants to win.

since 2010- with the wonderful Kyle Wilson selection, NO JET FIRST ROUND PICK was even serviceable. We hit with Adams 8 years later. Joe D had a reputation of paying his good players in Philly and set a culture of “win and  play well and you will be rewarded”. We need to set that same culture. It’s asinine to think we should trade him. For what, draft picks? We couldn’t even hit on a first round pick for the last 8 years, what makes u think we’ll hit on others? Trading him is plain stupid. Pay the man. 

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On 2/24/2020 at 4:16 PM, Sperm Edwards said:

Still think $10-12MM/year sounds about right, in this market. 

No way. Check out the average salaries for 3-4 OLBs. He's not a top ten overall player or passrusher. Anything past 7M per and the Jets should seriously consider letting him walk

https://overthecap.com/position/3-4-outside-linebacker/

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7 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

No way. Check out the average salaries for 3-4 OLBs. He's not a top ten overall player or passrusher. Anything past 7M per and the Jets should seriously consider letting him walk

https://overthecap.com/position/3-4-outside-linebacker/

I wouldn't pay him that much - I think he’s pretty overrated by many here, and shouldn’t be terribly hard to replace - but he's a $10MM+/yr OLB more than Enunwa was a $9MM/yr WR.

You’re falling into a trap, like many, of looking at these existing contracts and incorrectly concluding + presuming:

  1. That there is no inflation (all of these contracts are pre-2020, and many/most of them are pre-2018)
  2. That there is no premium paid for sacks, whether or not you personally believe it’s justified because his were more coverage sacks or something. This is even more heavily weighted when he’s a jack-of-all-trades type who’s not a liability against the run, and still puts up respectable sack numbers. 
  3. That there is no premium paid for young veterans who generally stay healthy and aren’t on or off field distractions. He’s played in 14-16 games every year as a 4-year veteran and still turns just 26 in 2020. He’s got a lot more value to a team looking for a 4-year sure starter than a bigger name like 33 year-old UFA Clay Matthews last year, who was on a steady decline for years and hadn’t reached or eclipsed 8 sacks for the prior half a decade; or some 29 year-old looking for his last payday. 
  4. That all top 10 (or even top 20-30) OLBs are on veteran contracts. e.g. you’re comparing his value to a contract like TJ Watt, who’s still playing under his low 1st round contract at $2.3MM, not the 10-fold higher contract he’d get as a UFA.  

He was a day 2 pick who was and has remained a starter right from the start. He is also a full UFA, not a player getting extended a year before reaching FA status. He will get paid plenty. A team could do worse than having him on one side and another more electric pass rusher on his rookie deal opposite him. The problem on the Jets is there was no such edge rusher opposite him. 

You’re kidding yourself if you think he can be re-signed for $7MM or less as a full UFA on a $200MM salary cap limit. If it somehow happens, you can go ahead and gloat about it, but I’d be surprised. IMO the bargain price for him as a UFA is $9MM, but I think more than one team will bid more than that. 

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With the new CBA about to be agreed, and future cap figures about to soar, I don't see any way that Jenkins gets less than $10M a year as a free agent.

Starter since day one, getting better each year, 15 sacks over the past 2 years. He's getting a nice deal in FA, and he deserves it.

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On 2/25/2020 at 1:02 AM, jeremy2020 said:

One man's top is another's man's bottom?

One man's Passionate and Energetic is another's Emotionally Unstable.

That is cute, smug and all but so off the mark and says nothing about Jamal Adams.

 

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2 hours ago, mrcoops said:

With the new CBA about to be agreed, and future cap figures about to soar, I don't see any way that Jenkins gets less than $10M a year as a free agent.

Starter since day one, getting better each year, 15 sacks over the past 2 years. He's getting a nice deal in FA, and he deserves it.

The issue for the Jets and signing Jenkins to me is what defense are they running.  

If Jenkins fits in their defense, they should sign him for his market price. 

But they may be looking for more of a 4-3 DE, and Jenkins may not be the best fit there. 

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3 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I wouldn't pay him that much - I think he’s pretty overrated by many here, and shouldn’t be terribly hard to replace - but he's a $10MM+/yr OLB more than Enunwa was a $9MM/yr WR.

You’re falling into a trap, like many, of looking at these existing contracts and incorrectly concluding + presuming:

  1. That there is no inflation (all of these contracts are pre-2020, and many/most of them are pre-2018)
  2. That there is no premium paid for sacks, whether or not you personally believe it’s justified because his were more coverage sacks or something. This is even more heavily weighted when he’s a jack-of-all-trades type who’s not a liability against the run, and still puts up respectable sack numbers. 
  3. That there is no premium paid for young veterans who generally stay healthy and aren’t on or off field distractions. He’s played in 14-16 games every year as a 4-year veteran and still turns just 26 in 2020. He’s got a lot more value to a team looking for a 4-year sure starter than a bigger name like 33 year-old UFA Clay Matthews last year, who was on a steady decline for years and hadn’t reached or eclipsed 8 sacks for the prior half a decade; or some 29 year-old looking for his last payday. 
  4. That all top 10 (or even top 20-30) OLBs are on veteran contracts. e.g. you’re comparing his value to a contract like TJ Watt, who’s still playing under his low 1st round contract at $2.3MM, not the 10-fold higher contract he’d get as a UFA.  

He was a day 2 pick who was and has remained a starter right from the start. He is also a full UFA, not a player getting extended a year before reaching FA status. He will get paid plenty. A team could do worse than having him on one side and another more electric pass rusher on his rookie deal opposite him. The problem on the Jets is there was no such edge rusher opposite him. 

You’re kidding yourself if you think he can be re-signed for $7MM or less as a full UFA on a $200MM salary cap limit. If it somehow happens, you can go ahead and gloat about it, but I’d be surprised. IMO the bargain price for him as a UFA is $9MM, but I think more than one team will bid more than that. 

Obviously there's inflation, and yes, some of those guys are on rookie contracts. But Jenkins is a mid-level guy without much projection left; he's a full time starter who isn't going to be projected for a jump based on expanded opportunity and who doesn't have a great athletic profile. He's a good-not-great starter at a position where pass-rushers get paid and edge setters don't, generally.  And it's not like he's in a weak FA group; the EDGE group in this FA class includes Clowney, Fowler, Van Noy, Barrett, Golden, Dupree, Lynch, Correa, McPhee, Judon ... so many names. Some of those will be franchised (Judon, for one) but it will be a buyer's market. He's not going to be a priority free agent for teams looking for EDGE help so he'll be in the second or third wave of free agent signings, and, historically, those guys don't see as much in the way of inflation vs. prior contracts, especially when teams see the available players as relatively equivalent. Maybe you're right and I'm wrong. We'll see in a few weeks.

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13 minutes ago, varjet said:

The issue for the Jets and signing Jenkins to me is what defense are they running.  

If Jenkins fits in their defense, they should sign him for his market price. 

But they may be looking for more of a 4-3 DE, and Jenkins may not be the best fit there. 

Great post, and this is the $1mm question. As much as so many of us have just destroyed Q this past year(myself being one of the biggest culprits) the kid was playing way out of position. He is a pure 4-3 DT, not a NT or DE. Unless every talent guy in the world was wrong about him being a great player at that position coming out, the Jets have to change the base to take advantage of him.Put him where he will thrive, and be dominant. To me, this is so much more important to the future of this team than figuring out where to play, and how much to pay, Jenkins.

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On 2/24/2020 at 5:45 PM, jgb said:

People think we can build a Nordstrom's team at a Wal-Mart price...

Nordstrom Rack!

On 2/24/2020 at 5:57 PM, Patriot Killa said:

I would re-sign Jenkins AND Basham. Tbh you don’t have to just pick one in this case. Basham will come much cheaper.

I know that you have already heard that Basham was under contract.  Thing is, with guys they don't want back, they seem to have phased them out toward the end of the year.  It probably happened with corners.  Jenkins was playing right up until the end.  He was getting more run than Copeland.  Jordan Willis is also under contract, but they may be playing him at DE. 

As @varjet mentioned, it will be interesting what defense they actually want to run.  Gregg Williams always seemed a bit mercenary.  Are they basing everything on his wishes?  Who takes over if Williams runs off?  Assistant HC/ILB coach Frank Bush?  I think he ran a non-blitzing 4-3 and cover 2 in Houston.  Senior Defensive Assistant and LB coach and Gase's father-in-law Joe Vitt?

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7 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

Obviously there's inflation, and yes, some of those guys are on rookie contracts. But Jenkins is a mid-level guy without much projection left; he's a full time starter who isn't going to be projected for a jump based on expanded opportunity and who doesn't have a great athletic profile. He's a good-not-great starter at a position where pass-rushers get paid and edge setters don't, generally.  And it's not like he's in a weak FA group; the EDGE group in this FA class includes Clowney, Fowler, Van Noy, Barrett, Golden, Dupree, Lynch, Correa, McPhee, Judon ... so many names. Some of those will be franchised (Judon, for one) but it will be a buyer's market. He's not going to be a priority free agent for teams looking for EDGE help so he'll be in the second or third wave of free agent signings, and, historically, those guys don't see as much in the way of inflation vs. prior contracts, especially when teams see the available players as relatively equivalent. Maybe you're right and I'm wrong. We'll see in a few weeks.

Right, and the elite-level guys will get north of $16MM (and some maybe at or over $20MM), which is about 50-100% more than Jenkins depending on the player, not 300% more. 

3 years ago the Jets signed Winters to $7.25MM/year ($15MM guar over the first 2 years). He was at best mid-level at the time, and wasn't even mid-level for more than the most recent season. At the time of that deal, the most elite, recent NFL guard contracts like DeCastro and Osemele got around $10MM/yr from Baltimore. 

Hey I agree with you that he's mid-level, but I think you have a different idea of the percentage spread between a good, always healthy, soon-to-be just 26 year-old mid-level starter vs. an elite one of any age. The difference isn't typically double or triple, and the examples above - plus the example I just used with you before (Enunwa) - illustrate this. Most higher-drafted positions are this way (QB, WR, LT, CB, and recently G has been). 43DEs/34OLBs are closer to this type of group than that of RBs, RTs, safeties, ILBs. Also some of this stuff is eye of beholder. Just because he isn't a dynamic pass rusher off the edge doesn't mean teams won't see his whole package (hey now) as having a lot of value. Calvin Pace was more of a solid jack of all trades "edge setter" OLB and the Jets made him (then) just about the highest paid OLB in NFL history. 

And FFS Henry Anderson got $8.5MM/year after really 1 full season as a starter (on paper not even that), and that was also entering a DT-rich draft which itself was also after a FA period with more "dynamic" 43DT/34DEnames like Suh, McCoy, Richardson, Mo (:bag:and maybe others I'm not remembering. Jenkins is not getting paid less in 2020 than Anderson did in 2019.

But it'll be interesting to see what number he ends up getting. Remind me if I forget.

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On 2/26/2020 at 5:27 PM, Sperm Edwards said:

Right, and the elite-level guys will get north of $16MM (and some maybe at or over $20MM), which is about 50-100% more than Jenkins depending on the player, not 300% more. 

3 years ago the Jets signed Winters to $7.25MM/year ($15MM guar over the first 2 years). He was at best mid-level at the time, and wasn't even mid-level for more than the most recent season. At the time of that deal, the most elite, recent NFL guard contracts like DeCastro and Osemele got around $10MM/yr from Baltimore. 

Hey I agree with you that he's mid-level, but I think you have a different idea of the percentage spread between a good, always healthy, soon-to-be just 26 year-old mid-level starter vs. an elite one of any age. The difference isn't typically double or triple, and the examples above - plus the example I just used with you before (Enunwa) - illustrate this. Most higher-drafted positions are this way (QB, WR, LT, CB, and recently G has been). 43DEs/34OLBs are closer to this type of group than that of RBs, RTs, safeties, ILBs. Also some of this stuff is eye of beholder. Just because he isn't a dynamic pass rusher off the edge doesn't mean teams won't see his whole package (hey now) as having a lot of value. Calvin Pace was more of a solid jack of all trades "edge setter" OLB and the Jets made him (then) just about the highest paid OLB in NFL history. 

And FFS Henry Anderson got $8.5MM/year after really 1 full season as a starter (on paper not even that), and that was also entering a DT-rich draft which itself was also after a FA period with more "dynamic" 43DT/34DEnames like Suh, McCoy, Richardson, Mo (:bag:and maybe others I'm not remembering. Jenkins is not getting paid less in 2020 than Anderson did in 2019.

But it'll be interesting to see what number he ends up getting. Remind me if I forget.

Can't win em all

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I wouldn't pay him that much - I think he’s pretty overrated by many here, and shouldn’t be terribly hard to replace - but he's a $10MM+/yr OLB more than Enunwa was a $9MM/yr WR.
You’re falling into a trap, like many, of looking at these existing contracts and incorrectly concluding + presuming:
  1. That there is no inflation (all of these contracts are pre-2020, and many/most of them are pre-2018)
  2. That there is no premium paid for sacks, whether or not you personally believe it’s justified because his were more coverage sacks or something. This is even more heavily weighted when he’s a jack-of-all-trades type who’s not a liability against the run, and still puts up respectable sack numbers. 
  3. That there is no premium paid for young veterans who generally stay healthy and aren’t on or off field distractions. He’s played in 14-16 games every year as a 4-year veteran and still turns just 26 in 2020. He’s got a lot more value to a team looking for a 4-year sure starter than a bigger name like 33 year-old UFA Clay Matthews last year, who was on a steady decline for years and hadn’t reached or eclipsed 8 sacks for the prior half a decade; or some 29 year-old looking for his last payday. 
  4. That all top 10 (or even top 20-30) OLBs are on veteran contracts. e.g. you’re comparing his value to a contract like TJ Watt, who’s still playing under his low 1st round contract at $2.3MM, not the 10-fold higher contract he’d get as a UFA.  
He was a day 2 pick who was and has remained a starter right from the start. He is also a full UFA, not a player getting extended a year before reaching FA status. He will get paid plenty. A team could do worse than having him on one side and another more electric pass rusher on his rookie deal opposite him. The problem on the Jets is there was no such edge rusher opposite him. 
You’re kidding yourself if you think he can be re-signed for $7MM or less as a full UFA on a $200MM salary cap limit. If it somehow happens, you can go ahead and gloat about it, but I’d be surprised. IMO the bargain price for him as a UFA is $9MM, but I think more than one team will bid more than that. 

Haha. I jut stumbled upon this. Good stuff. I’m also amazed at the contract jenkins got.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app
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28 minutes ago, GREENBEAN said:


Haha. I jut stumbled upon this. Good stuff. I’m also amazed at the contract jenkins got.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

Beautiful job of research!! JD is doing a remarkable job so far. Nothing earth shattering.... just putting things in place, building blocks. The draft is where we will find the shiny pieces  Also camp cuts time 

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12 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

Beautiful job of research!! JD is doing a remarkable job so far. Nothing earth shattering.... just putting things in place, building blocks. The draft is where we will find the shiny pieces  Also camp cuts time 

Absolutely.  So far so good for JD

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1 hour ago, 32EBoozer said:

Beautiful job of research!! JD is doing a remarkable job so far. Nothing earth shattering.... just putting things in place, building blocks. The draft is where we will find the shiny pieces  Also camp cuts time 

I actually didn't research it. When I opened the phone app it was on that thread and I saw the post. I have no idea why.  lol

But it's cool to see that JD is meeting or exceeding certain contractual expectations we all had.  I thought jenkins would be singed at $6-8 mil at the least. I thought that was his floor. $5.5 is spectacular. 

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I've long thought of Jordan Jenkins as a gamer. He really isn't that good, but he definitely doesn't hurt us with the way he supports in run defense. There can be no complaints about resigning him at this number. Now go spend his savings on someone who actually affects the passing game. 

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