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Anyone buying stock this week ?


Dunnie

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On 2/28/2020 at 2:31 PM, Jet_Engine1 said:

Once again, the media and certain groups are capitalizing on a sensationalist take by creating a panic based on a statistically insignificant outbreak of a new strain of flu virus. Seems to happen every 5 years or so. The last one was when everyone in Florida was going to contract Zika. 

 

Similarly, we have over 400 cases of Leprosy a year in the US. Yes, Leprosy.  Nobody talks about it. TB and Hepatitis are constants, no panics. But 3 kids in California or.NY get Measles and people are in the streets with pitchforks and torches. Hell, how many people in India,  Indo, Malaysia  etc die of Malaria or Dysentery every year?

 

The point? Yes, Coronavirus is bad,  and China has a new flu strain, but only 3% of cases convert to a serious manifestation of symptoms,  87% of those who contract it have flu like symptoms and recover. 

 

Companies shut down manufacturing,  but for how long? A month? Big deal. We may not be at the floor, but no matter what sensationalist "journalists" scream at 6:30 tonight, or how certain agenda driven Pols may weaponize this, by July, this will be a "remember when....?" event. 

 

It's like Florida in a Hurricane Watch, I'm pretty sure Home Depot and Lowes are paying Meteorologists to overhype storms. LOL 

 

Bottom line, the market will bounce back like it always does, or the Army is digging mass graves like in the Stand. Either way, I might buy more Tesla if it drops down to where it was a couple of years ago. 

The actions of governments is the most terrifying thing.   China shut down their economy for a month.  Nobody does that for the flu. 
 

I think they are worried about how easy it is to transmit and the death rate which was initially showing 2-3 percent. 
 

China really needs to get back to work or we are going to have supply chain issues globally. 

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On 3/2/2020 at 8:51 PM, jetstream23 said:

I sold out of the SDS (Ultra Short S&P ETF) today.  Wish I'd done it on Friday but still ahead after buying in last Tuesday as an overall market hedge.  This essentially goes up about 2-3% for every 1% drop in the S&P 500 but is also influenced by volatility (.VIX) so it went up about 23% for me over 5 days....while most/all of my long positions suffered.

I've held on to my long positions through this (and glad I did today) but used the above to cushion some of the fall.

Not quite sure where we go from here.  I think the Fed may come out with some type of rate easing statement and could lower rates by 50 basis points....but to me that might signal a little panic.  If they do that it would seem like a positive for long positions in the market but it could also signal some fear that there will be a real economic impact from coronavirus.  In other words, this bounce today may not last too long.  Perhaps a couple days.

I think we could be higher over the next couple of days and longterm we're probably higher in 9-12 months, but that time in between could be choppy if we continue to see supply chain disruptions and the PMI measurements coming out of China continue to crater.

Be a little bit hedged my friends.  Make sure you can sleep at night.

Nailed the market reaction to the fed cut. 
 

best thing most people can do is refinance your mortgage. 

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On 3/4/2020 at 9:11 AM, southparkcpa said:

Yes..basic math.  Try to NOT pay any closing costs but if your mortgage is say 100K, your not gonna save much.    Mistake I see many make is they REFI every 3-4 years.  20 years later their mortgage is as large as it was when they bought the house as they pull cash out each time.  Consider a 10 year or a 15 year and get out of debt .  I did and it is a VERY liberating feeling.  My mortgage was paid off at 50.  

Back in September my bank offered me a interest only loan with 2.8 percent rate.  I wonder if it would be less than 2.5 percent now.  Crazy.  800k loan and pay 20k a year in mortgage cost. 

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23 hours ago, Maxman said:

I opened up a brokerage account over the weekend bought an index fund. I have my 401k but it seemed like a good time to jump in. I will watch the airline stocks for a bit, they are going to come back at some point.

Be careful with which airline stock.  Lots of them have debt that are high.  I own delta but sold some in middle of feb.  wish I sold it all. 

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21 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

I make a great living but would NEVER EVER have a mortgage that high.  I see it all day long. Clients living in million dollar homes and 20 years later still have a huge mortgage.  We live 80 percent of our lives in 20 percent of our home.  Interest free I wouldn’t buy that house...  just me. 

That’s a fair point but it works for us.  I can rent the house out for august and pay my interest only mortgage and taxes for the year. 

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6 hours ago, TeddEY said:

What are your thoughts on cruise lines?  Trading so low right now - and I can't imagine cruises just going away.  Seems like you could at least double up in 6-months to a year.

I haven’t looked at them. 

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On 3/25/2020 at 11:29 AM, Kleckineau said:

If the scenario you describe materializes, and I dont say its impossible, at that point I think trading stocks and managing 401Ks will be the least of our concerns. Also, I dont discount the danger of this virus one iota however I cant help wondering if this is a case where the cure (permanent financial destruction for many from misguided govt intervention) is worse than the disease.

Look you don’t need to go far to see very dire scenarios if we don’t get back to work in June at the latest. 

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you guys buying/owning Tesla are nuts in my opinion.

outside of the greater fool theory - Tesla would have to execute perfectly over the next 5 years to even remotely grow into this valuation. 

i am short (and have been for a few weeks) Tesla.  it has not been fun. 

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On 9/3/2020 at 11:42 AM, batman10023 said:

you guys buying/owning Tesla are nuts in my opinion.

outside of the greater fool theory - Tesla would have to execute perfectly over the next 5 years to even remotely grow into this valuation. 

i am short (and have been for a few weeks) Tesla.  it has not been fun. 

the last few days seem to be a little better.

 

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3 hours ago, batman10023 said:

the last few days seem to be a little better.

 

i exited the majority of my short position in Tesla today.  

i can't imagine anyone actually buying Tesla when it was at 500 (post split) other than short sellers crying uncle. and man they must be felt massive pain then.

it was valued as i believe the 6th (from memory) largest market cap company in america.  bigger than berkshire hathaway. $575 Billion dollars.

and sold 500k cars a year (i know growing) - at a loss.

 

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8 hours ago, Biggs said:

I looked at the New Porsche Tacan a few weeks ago.  Looks like a crappy car compared to Tesla.  I think they are going to continue to kill it against the coming competition.  They simply have the best product.  The biggest threat is the commitment by China and Japan toward hydrogen.  The electric vehicle market has some big hurdles and coming competition that could wipe it out.  

Can you go into a bit more detail on the comparison?

the market for Tesla stock seems to be pricing in them being a huge winner. 

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On 1/28/2021 at 11:08 AM, Grandy said:

It's satisfying watching wall street bozos sh*t their pants when a bunch of normal people decide to invest en masse and use a "free market" to their advantage.

Especially after watching some of those guys at the top treat our Economy like a casino which landed us in economic turmoil many times before. Example being 08 which wrecked the lives of millions. 

This all Highlights a greater issue, and its fascinating to see it arise from redditors thinking it would be cool to invest in archaic companies. 

Most ws bozos have nothing to do with GameStop. A few folks got screwed.  The story and narrative is good press. 
 

I shorted gme Wednesday and Thursday 5 time for fun.  Made 40 points on average each time. Obvious very small but think ended up making 5k. 

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On 1/28/2021 at 12:06 PM, IndianaJet said:

Boys....we might just be in the end of times:

 

 

2021 the year of bipartisanship

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3 hours ago, Lizard King said:

Yeah he is a notorious inside trader, made a living on it, and rumors of all sorts of stuff you see in the movies 

His incentive structure for employees led To some folks crossing the line. 

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10 hours ago, Lizard King said:

“some folks” who paid the biggest fine in the history of the business which has still not even been remotely close to being matched 

All these pod structures have strong incentives to cheat.  It’s hard to police. 
 

 

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