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Anyone buying stock this week ?


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I think what Reddit is doing to wall street is awesome.

My grandmother bought me a savings bond when I was kid so I pocketed $25 in 1993.  That was good.

I can't think of a single reason to buy this week. We're nowhere near knowing where the floor is here. 

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24 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Geez. The market is now “limit up” in futures trading. This is crazy.

68204122-5ABE-4DCA-9AC4-9118BE3DFD46.thumb.jpeg.7a23ff9bebff0052978d8a9c131c2880.jpeg

God damnit I nev er put me end of day buy order in

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37 minutes ago, CTM said:

God damnit I nev er put me end of day buy order in

I was going to buy AMZN towards the close today.  Didn't.

However, I did close out all my short positions.  If we rally hard upwards tomorrow I'll probably get a little short again as yet another hedge.

I've traded in and out of SDS at least 5 times since Feb. 14th.

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Looks like another sell-off tomorrow with the futures already tanking. I wish I grabbed a little hedge at the end of the session but that wasn't the case. 

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1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

Funny how he makes no mention of 2003. 

I am a buyer at Dow 17,500-18,000

It may very well go lower but the recovery will be meteoric.

GRAB THAT FALLING KNIFE!

It will be like a buffet.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Kleckineau said:

Funny how he makes no mention of 2003. 

I am a buyer at Dow 17,500-18,000

It may very well go lower but the recovery will be meteoric.

GRAB THAT FALLING KNIFE!

It will be like a buffet.

 

 

Yeah I dont get how we hit the bottom. Stock market was around 17k 4 years ago. It's been inflated by stock buy backs , some of which was funded by debt.

Entire industries are going to need to be bailed out and unemployment is going to skyrocket while the government hands out money for free. (Not productive)

Maybe you want to argue it'll go up based on impending hyper inflation? Seems like there is going to be too much deflationary pressure in short term.

Russia seems settled in to out shale companies out of business top with oil prices and maybe they move to go off dollar standard at dome point.

This feels a lot like a new world order coming to me 

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48 minutes ago, CTM said:

Yeah I dont get how we hit the bottom. Stock market was around 17k 4 years ago. It's been inflated by stock buy backs , some of which was funded by debt.

Entire industries are going to need to be bailed out and unemployment is going to skyrocket while the government hands out money for free. (Not productive)

Maybe you want to argue it'll go up based on impending hyper inflation? Seems like there is going to be too much deflationary pressure in short term.

Russia seems settled in to out shale companies out of business top with oil prices and maybe they move to go off dollar standard at dome point.

This feels a lot like a new world order coming to me 

Full respect for your opinion.

However  I think 2008 was worse.

It was a full system collapse from internal failures caused by horrible business practices mixed with poor governmental oversight vs this sell off caused by a sole exogenic event.

Lehman Bros, Merrill Lynch, AIG Freddie Mac, GM, Chrysle, internationally HBOS, Royal Bank of Scotland, Bradford Bingley, Fortis all gone forever, nationalized or bailed out. I could go on but you get the pic.

In the throes of these things the cacophony of the talking heads and the prevailing market psychology says its gonna be different, apocalyptic, the world as we knew is over, but it never is.

 

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Just now, Kleckineau said:

Full respect for your opinion.

However  I think 2008 was worse.

It was a full system collapse from internal failures caused by horrible business practices mixed with poor governmental oversight vs this sell off caused by a sole exogenic event.

Lehman Bros, Merrill Lynch, AIG Freddie Mac, GM, Chrysle, internationally HBOS, Royal Bank of Scotland, Bradford Bingley, Fortis all gone forever, nationalized or bailed out. I could go on but you get the pic.

In the throes of these things the cacophony of the talking heads and market the prevailing market psychology says its gonna be different, apocalyptic, the world as we knew is over, but it never is.

 

Isn't this concerning though given short term cash flow issues that nearly everyone not selling necessities is going to experience

 

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Total corporate debt is actually much higher. Adding the debt of small medium sized enterprises, family businesses, and other business which are not listed in stock exchanges ads another $5.5 trillion. In other words, total US corporate debt is $15.5 trillion, 74% of US GDP. It is no wonder then that the International Institute of Finance in its Global Debt Monitor, has an ‘amber light for the U.S. corporate sector.’ U.S. corporate debt growing has been growing above trend, fueled by an increase in bank lending “adding to worries about vulnerabilities in the corporate sector.” According to the IIF analysts, “While declining borrowing costs could provide some breathing room for U.S. firms with high refinancing needs, this may not do much to improve business sentiment (or investment spending) given trade tensions and concern about earnings growth.” IIF; U.S. Business Health Index remains weak, “driven by growing reliance on short-term debt, deteriorating interest coverage and quick ratios (as a proxy for liquidity), and declining [Return on Assets] RoA.”

 

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2 hours ago, Kleckineau said:

Full respect for your opinion.

However  I think 2008 was worse.

It was a full system collapse from internal failures caused by horrible business practices mixed with poor governmental oversight vs this sell off caused by a sole exogenic event.

Lehman Bros, Merrill Lynch, AIG Freddie Mac, GM, Chrysle, internationally HBOS, Royal Bank of Scotland, Bradford Bingley, Fortis all gone forever, nationalized or bailed out. I could go on but you get the pic.

In the throes of these things the cacophony of the talking heads and the prevailing market psychology says its gonna be different, apocalyptic, the world as we knew is over, but it never is.

 

I appreciate your posts but the story hasn't been written on what happens here in 2020. As of right now we don't know what the fallout and what companies will no longer exist. The news keep getting worse and I've never seen anything like this, at least in my lifetime.

Regarding the bolded you just don't know that yet. When has an entire global economy basically come to a standstill? Even with the financial crisis that never happened and people were still free to go about their regular day lives. This is different.

 

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Took a chance on some Tesla stock yesterday. Maybe a 'huge tiny mistake' but I love my Model 3 and think they're miles ahead technologically over any other automaker on the market. 

Plan to hold it for the long term. 

Definitely concerned, though... How many people are going to buy $40,000+ cars anytime soon, especially with oil prices tanking? Bit of a gamble for sure. 

But yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaa... we'll see; still love the company. 

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6 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Took a chance on some Tesla stock yesterday. Maybe a 'huge tiny mistake' but I love my Model 3 and think they're miles ahead technologically over any other automaker on the market. 

Plan to hold it for the long term. 

Definitely concerned, though... How many people are going to buy $40,000+ cars anytime soon, especially with oil prices tanking? Bit of a gamble for sure. 

But yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaa... we'll see; still love the company. 

Yeah electric is the future but .99 gas is going to delay the future unfortunately.

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12 minutes ago, Maxman said:

Yeah electric is the future but .99 gas is going to delay the future unfortunately.

Talk about an absolutely historic and unbelievable set of circumstances.  I've never seen anything like this in the oil markets with supply increasing rapidly just as demand is falling off a cliff.

The demand side has both secular and cyclical forces at play.  The longterm shift to EV, solar and non-fossil fuels started a few years ago...and now you have everyone home, no airplanes flying and a temporary demand shock which is crushing demand.  Then the Saudis and Russians walk out of the OPEC+ meeting with no supply constraints.  Saudis are talking about pumping upwards of 12B barrels a day starting in April.

This isn't usually how usual economics and supply/demand works.  Oil hit an 18 year low today to just over $20 a barrel.  That's nuts.  It may bounce around here for a while but my guess is that unless some businesses truly turn off the pumps, shutter the wells, or the Saudis and Russians blink.....we'll go even lower.  Nobody ever thought we'd see $20 oil again even in the face of a burgeoning EV and Alt Energy market.  My completely bold guess....we hit $10 before we ever hit $40 again.

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11 hours ago, RobR said:

I appreciate your posts but the story hasn't been written on what happens here in 2020. As of right now we don't know what the fallout and what companies will no longer exist. The news keep getting worse and I've never seen anything like this, at least in my lifetime.

Regarding the bolded you just don't know that yet. When has an entire global economy basically come to a standstill? Even with the financial crisis that never happened and people were still free to go about their regular day lives. This is different.

 

You ask good questions that nobody can answer. Like everyone who follows financial markets  I am astounded at this turn of events. This selloff was obviously started by the virus but I also  believe as a market that had been building since 2010 it reached a level that increasingly seemed greedy and unsustainable.  Example? Tesla. I know some here love what they are doing and I am also a fan of the product but a $950 price share really? (now down 60%) This bear market was overdue.

I know its hardest to see when you are standing in the middle of this storm. Behavioral finance is also at play here and is an aspect of all this many are unfamiliar with. Guys like Amos Taversky and Daniel Kahnerman  wrote at length regarding this but most of all as a firm believer in the investment philosophies of Benjamin Graham (his disciples are a who's who of modern investing Templeton Buffet dozens more)  I remain confident of the eventual turnaround.  

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

Talk about an absolutely historic and unbelievable set of circumstances.  I've never seen anything like this in the oil markets with supply increasing rapidly just as demand is falling off a cliff.

The demand side has both secular and cyclical forces at play.  The longterm shift to EV, solar and non-fossil fuels started a few years ago...and now you have everyone home, no airplanes flying and a temporary demand shock which is crushing demand.  Then the Saudis and Russians walk out of the OPEC+ meeting with no supply constraints.  Saudis are talking about pumping upwards of 12B barrels a day starting in April.

This isn't usually how usual economics and supply/demand works.  Oil hit an 18 year low today to just over $20 a barrel.  That's nuts.  It may bounce around here for a while but my guess is that unless some businesses truly turn off the pumps, shutter the wells, or the Saudis and Russians blink.....we'll go even lower.  Nobody ever thought we'd see $20 oil again even in the face of a burgeoning EV and Alt Energy market.  My completely bold guess....we hit $10 before we ever hit $40 again.

Conspiracy theory is that Russian balance sheets much healthier than US, they can whether cheap oil for years and years to put competition out of business. US shale can't produce at this price 

 

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I know nothing about the stock markets, but I've been watching it for about a year and was always too scared to jump in. Until this week. I've been buying mgm, Penn national and draftkings.  There are no sports and the casinos are closed so they are getting absolutely hammered. I feel like its a good long term investment. I've just been trying to buy as much as I can every time it drops. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

I know nothing about the stock markets, but I've been watching it for about a year and was always too scared to jump in. Until this week. I've been buying mgm, Penn national and draftkings.  There are no sports and the casinos are closed so they are getting absolutely hammered. I feel like its a good long term investment. I've just been trying to buy as much as I can every time it drops. 

 

 

medical devices and supplies.

i.e. B.D., Medtronics, etc.

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imo it's still too early by about a week or two.  it's going to take some time for the good news to start filtering through.  what good news one might say?  well, there's an antiviral pill from Japan that can reduce the virus to a more manageable 4 days if one has it.  China is using it.  The number of new cases in China has dropped to near zero.  Assuming this is true, it's huge.   The large rise in cases here are mainly because they're testing more people.  In truth this virus has been in this country since January.  The first instance happened in Wuhan in early December.  There is no way it just started to become evident here in late february.  finally the warmer weather will start to dampen the virus spread.  the higher sunlight levels in spring will kill the virus.

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1 hour ago, rangerous said:

imo it's still too early by about a week or two.  it's going to take some time for the good news to start filtering through.  what good news one might say?  well, there's an antiviral pill from Japan that can reduce the virus to a more manageable 4 days if one has it.  China is using it.  1. The number of new cases in China has dropped to near zero.  Assuming this is true, it's huge.   2. The large rise in cases here are mainly because they're testing more people.  3. In truth this virus has been in this country since January.  The first instance happened in Wuhan in early December.  There is no way it just started to become evident here in late february.  finally the warmer weather will start to dampen the virus spread.  the higher sunlight levels in spring will kill the virus.

1. It's a lie.  A bald-faced lie and it's becoming obvious. 

2. What? The rise in cases AND the rise in testing are both caused by the rapid spread of the virus.  What you are writing is irresponsibly incorrect. The rise in cases is due to the spread of the virus, not the increase in testing.  These people were not infected in January or early February. 

3. This reasoning is as convoluted as it gets.  Sure the infection spread here in January, but the spread increase is exponential.  Slow at first and then shoots up like crazy.  What is it about this you don't understand?

4. I give up.  There is no proof of seasonality at all.  It is a mere hope.  And I hope it is correct.  Trust me, the markets are not relying on anything from your post above. 

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11 hours ago, Maxman said:

Yeah electric is the future but .99 gas is going to delay the future unfortunately.

FWIW, the best part about Tesla's are not the EV element of it. Sure that's what everyone focuses on; cheaper to charge than to refuel, far less maintenance and the "green" benefits (although if you're getting that electricity from coal burning power plants...).

It's the best car I've ever driven. That's the selling point. When this is all over, any of you that haven't driven one, I'd suggest test driving one. They're fun AF.

That's my sales pitch haha. 

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1 hour ago, Dcat said:

1. It's a lie.  A bald-faced lie and it's becoming obvious. 

2. What? The rise in cases AND the rise in testing are both caused by the rapid spread of the virus.  What you are writing is irresponsibly incorrect. The rise in cases is due to the spread of the virus, not the increase in testing.  These people were not infected in January or early February. 

3. This reasoning is as convoluted as it gets.  Sure the infection spread here in January, but the spread increase is exponential.  Slow at first and then shoots up like crazy.  What is it about this you don't understand?

4. I give up.  There is no proof of seasonality at all.  It is a mere hope.  And I hope it is correct.  Trust me, the markets are not relying on anything from your post above. 

you are so wrong.  stop watching msnbc and get your news from reliable sources, and they aren't named fox either.

everything i stated is factually correct.  the testing we are doing is nearly useless in trying to understand the spread of the virus.  they need to random population testing not just test people who may already have it.  the incubation of the virus is less than 2 weeks so if it were here on january 1 then the first cases would have been evident around mid january.  we've had essentially free contact with china until trump initiated the china airline ban a couple of weeks ago.  and if you want to point out what's happening in italy you need to understand that italy has the oldest population in europe and they smoke like chimneys.  what could go wrong?  plus they have huge ties with china in their fashion houses.

i understand all about exponential increases.  if you believe china then it took about 2-1/2 months to work through.  i doubt if they can tell that big of a lie.  since we are about 1 month behind then in about a week or so we will see a similar leveling of the cases.  the spike in cases is due to the number of tests that are coming through.  it took a while before the test kits were in general use.

there are at least two drugs that can be used to mitigate the effects of the virus.  one is an antiviral made in japan and is being used in china.  it knocks the duration down to about 4 days.  there's also the anti-malarial that also knocks back the virus.  as for seasonality, why don't you try and explain why the tropical nations have less incidence?  there is a huge chinese presence in venezuela and panama but not many case if any.  sunlight kills the virus.  warm temperatures and higher humidity also decreases the rate at which the virus replicates.  at some temperature and humdity the virus stops replicating and dies off.

yeah i don't know a thing about it.

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5 hours ago, rangerous said:

imo it's still too early by about a week or two.  it's going to take some time for the good news to start filtering through.  what good news one might say?  well, there's an antiviral pill from Japan that can reduce the virus to a more manageable 4 days if one has it.  China is using it.  The number of new cases in China has dropped to near zero.  Assuming this is true, it's huge.   The large rise in cases here are mainly because they're testing more people.  In truth this virus has been in this country since January.  The first instance happened in Wuhan in early December.  There is no way it just started to become evident here in late february.  finally the warmer weather will start to dampen the virus spread.  the higher sunlight levels in spring will kill the virus.

I'm going to throw my two cents in below....

3 hours ago, Dcat said:

1. It's a lie.  A bald-faced lie and it's becoming obvious. I believe that cases are significantly diminishing in China but they're nowhere close to having Zero new case growth.  They've gotten over the peak and are heading in the right direction.  But no case growth means they've eradicated COVID-19.  I agree with Dcat, that's very likely untrue. 

2. What? The rise in cases AND the rise in testing are both caused by the rapid spread of the virus.  What you are writing is irresponsibly incorrect. The rise in cases is due to the spread of the virus, not the increase in testing.  These people were not infected in January or early February.  I think it's both.  In terms of the "official new cases" that we're seeing announced everyday by the CDC a lot of them are due to the fact that we're finally testing a lot more.  Think of it this way - There were 20 speeding tickets given out by cops in town yesterday.  Does that mean only 20 people were speeding?  No.  It means only 20 people were caught and we likely had about 1,000 people go over the speed limit.  It's the same with testing.  More testing means more cops on the street handing out tickets to speeders.  They then given out 150 tickets....doesn't mean there are more than the 1,000 speeders, we're just catching more of them.  Testing is catching more of the cases that are already out there.  With that said, we still have significant uncontrolled spread right now and with the social distancing, shutting down restaurants, work-from-home, etc. that all started this week it should start to get under control hopefully soon.  But remember, people who were still running around this past weekend at bars and stuff....they're JUST NOW starting to exhibit symptoms if they were infected over the weekend. 

3. This reasoning is as convoluted as it gets.  Sure the infection spread here in January, but the spread increase is exponential.  Slow at first and then shoots up like crazy.  What is it about this you don't understand? The first case in China is at least as early as mid-November, not December.  They still haven't identified Patient 0.....or if they have China hasn't communicated that.  Spread is absolutely exponential.  It starts small and then multiplies on top of multiplying (hence the word exponential).  We'll never truly know just how many people in the US had this because many likely got sick with few or no symptoms and got better while we were doing no testing for this.  I've done an informal survey of friends and family and found a couple people here and there who recall getting sick in January, going to the doctor, testing Negative for both Strep and the Flu.....and being sent home with antibiotics.  They were convinced they had a mild or moderate case of the flu....but the test was negative. 

4. I give up.  There is no proof of seasonality at all.  It is a mere hope.  And I hope it is correct.  Trust me, the markets are not relying on anything from your post above.  There is some "proof" but more just indications of seasonal environmental factors possibly affecting the virus (see the recent studies on temperature, humidity, etc. I've been watching India's low case #'s with wonder for a while.  How have they escaped this so far?  Hint:  It's been 80+ degrees there.)  But in terms of true seasonality, meaning will this fade and then come back next Fall and every year, we just don't know yet.

Everybody here is stressed in different ways.  I'd hope we can all communicate about these things a little better and, where possible, back up or link any type of "facts" or major points we're making.  Stay well friends!

 

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14 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

Talk about an absolutely historic and unbelievable set of circumstances.  I've never seen anything like this in the oil markets with supply increasing rapidly just as demand is falling off a cliff.

The demand side has both secular and cyclical forces at play.  The longterm shift to EV, solar and non-fossil fuels started a few years ago...and now you have everyone home, no airplanes flying and a temporary demand shock which is crushing demand.  Then the Saudis and Russians walk out of the OPEC+ meeting with no supply constraints.  Saudis are talking about pumping upwards of 12B barrels a day starting in April.

This isn't usually how usual economics and supply/demand works.  Oil hit an 18 year low today to just over $20 a barrel.  That's nuts.  It may bounce around here for a while but my guess is that unless some businesses truly turn off the pumps, shutter the wells, or the Saudis and Russians blink.....we'll go even lower.  Nobody ever thought we'd see $20 oil again even in the face of a burgeoning EV and Alt Energy market.  My completely bold guess....we hit $10 before we ever hit $40 again.

This aged well. 😜

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16 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

Talk about an absolutely historic and unbelievable set of circumstances.  I've never seen anything like this in the oil markets with supply increasing rapidly just as demand is falling off a cliff.

The demand side has both secular and cyclical forces at play.  The longterm shift to EV, solar and non-fossil fuels started a few years ago...and now you have everyone home, no airplanes flying and a temporary demand shock which is crushing demand.  Then the Saudis and Russians walk out of the OPEC+ meeting with no supply constraints.  Saudis are talking about pumping upwards of 12B barrels a day starting in April.

This isn't usually how usual economics and supply/demand works.  Oil hit an 18 year low today to just over $20 a barrel.  That's nuts.  It may bounce around here for a while but my guess is that unless some businesses truly turn off the pumps, shutter the wells, or the Saudis and Russians blink.....we'll go even lower.  Nobody ever thought we'd see $20 oil again even in the face of a burgeoning EV and Alt Energy market.  My completely bold guess....we hit $10 before we ever hit $40 again.

 

23 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

This aged well. 😜

 

Everything bounces, man.....even toilet paper supplies come back. ;-) 

 

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Take it for what it's worth but my close friends SIL works for the CDC and he was talking about Martial Law type enforcements coming on Sunday at midnight. Not sure even I believe it but wouldn't be surprised.   

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1 minute ago, RobR said:

Take it for what it's worth but my close friends SIL works for the CDC and he was talking about Martial Law type enforcements coming on Sunday at midnight. Not sure even I believe it but wouldn't be surprised.   

Heard similiar 

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8 minutes ago, RobR said:

Take it for what it's worth but my close friends SIL works for the CDC and he was talking about Martial Law type enforcements coming on Sunday at midnight. Not sure even I believe it but wouldn't be surprised.   

I think that's already going on in SF.  It's being talked about in other places as well.

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Just now, TuscanyTile2 said:

I think that's already going on in SF.  It's being talked about in other places as well.

I'm talking about the whole country as of Sunday at midnight, not just other places. 

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8 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

And martial law?  Like the military in the streets?

Yes, and again take this with a grain of salt because it's just a rumor I heard, although it's from someone I would consider a reliable source. We'll see how the market responds tomorrow.

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