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On 3/22/2020 at 7:05 PM, CTM said:

It's because of Pelosi saying she's has issues with Senate bill and is introducing "our" bill. I really hope these scumbags arent fighting over sticking unrelated pet projects in there.

edit: the senate bill failed

 

On 3/22/2020 at 7:14 PM, RobR said:

For someone as informed as yourself you should know this is the case, which is disgraceful during these times. Maybe she's throwing  in some wording for Planned Parenthood funding.

I also thinks it goes much deeper than this which I've been saying all along. This is not a typical market downturn that we are dealing with so it's impossible too compare it to other market gyrations which many are doing. 

I don’t think anyone from any political stripe would think it’s a good idea to give Steve Mnuchin $500 billion in unmarked and unaccountable taxpayer dollars to spend as he pleases as the rest of the financial world burns.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/23/democrats-slush-fund-republican-rescue-package-143565

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I think what Reddit is doing to wall street is awesome.

My grandmother bought me a savings bond when I was kid so I pocketed $25 in 1993.  That was good.

I can't think of a single reason to buy this week. We're nowhere near knowing where the floor is here. 

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1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

 

I don’t think anyone from any political stripe would think it’s a good idea to give Steve Mnuchin $500 billion in unmarked and unaccountable taxpayer dollars to spend as he pleases as the rest of the financial world burns.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/23/democrats-slush-fund-republican-rescue-package-143565

Sure, fully agree with tha.t.. But that's not nearly all shes trying to add. There green initiatives in her proposal  + blanket 10k student loan forgiveness and many many other non corona related priorities 

For instance she wants to give airlines grants rather than loans, a true bailout. In exchange they meet emission standards, and mandate cash for clunkers govt buy back to improve fleet

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3 minutes ago, CTM said:

Sure. But that's not nearly all shes trying to add. There green initiatives in her proposal  + blanket 10k student loan forgiveness and many many other non corona related priorities 

For instance she wants to give airlines grants rather than loans, a true bailout. In exchange they meet emission standards, and mandate cash for clunkers govt buy back to improve fleet

I mean, that’s petty little stuff compared to making Mnuchin the unchecked single most powerful bank on the planet for six month using your money. Despite McConnell’s soon, the deal didn’t fail because of a cash for clunkers program. It didn’t fail because of emissions standards. If failed because they’re trying to keep Mnuchin, et al, from locking in history’s most vile golden parachute for themselves. 

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Just now, T0mShane said:

I mean, that’s petty little stuff compared to making Mnuchin the unchecked single most powerful bank on the planet for six month using your money. Despite McConnell’s soon, the deal didn’t fail because of a cash for clunkers program. It didn’t fail because of emissions standards. If failed because they’re trying to keep Mnuchin, et al, from locking in history’s most vile golden parachute for themselves. 

Not going to argue the merits of this but Pelosis' bill from what I've read in several sources has election reform stuff in there, immigration stuff, solar / wind energy credits, school lunch assistance, permanent extension of Obamacare, and more

I agree fully with you about Mnuchin and GOP. 

It's absurd what you are willing to turn a blind eye towards just because you've decide you don't like the other side more. Puppety

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1 minute ago, CTM said:

 

It's absurd what you are willing to turn a blind eye towards just because you've decide you don't like the other side more. Puppety

It’s a lovely day out and we shouldn’t engage in this, but I think it’s absurd how willing you are to equate unabashed corruption with pushing for relatively minor policy changes. If McConnell wanted to get a bare bones, no bullsh*t COVID-focused bailout package done, they could have had it on T’s desk last Monday. But that’s not what he does and it’s not what he’s ever done. He’s earned no trust from anyone that he’d ever deal in good faith on literally anything, even to remedy a national crisis, so I’m giving the benefit of the doubt to those that would call bullsh*t on him. But that’s just me. xo
 

GOOD DAY SIR I SAID GOOD DAY SIR

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9 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

It’s a lovely day out and we shouldn’t engage in this, but I think it’s absurd how willing you are to equate unabashed corruption with pushing for relatively minor policy changes. If McConnell wanted to get a bare bones, no bullsh*t COVID-focused bailout package done, they could have had it on T’s desk last Monday. But that’s not what he does and it’s not what he’s ever done. He’s earned no trust from anyone that he’d ever deal in good faith on literally anything, even to remedy a national crisis, so I’m giving the benefit of the doubt to those that would call bullsh*t on him. But that’s just me. xo
 

GOOD DAY SIR I SAID GOOD DAY SIR

Changes aren't mild, corruption everywhere, and no issue with you /anyone taking exception to McConnell. I do as well. The fact that pedos exist doesn't make me think spousal abuse is ok cause well at least they aren't pedos

Enjoy your day! xoxoxo

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1 minute ago, CTM said:

Changes aren't mild, corruption everywhere, and no issue with you /anyone taking exception to McConnell. I do as well. The fact that pedos exist doesn't make me think spousal abuse is ok cause well at least they aren't pedos

Enjoy your day! xoxoxo

Hate you love you xoxoxoxo 

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14 hours ago, RobR said:

Anyone still buying? I tried to nibble a bit today on the airlines but my orders didn't go through, which might be a blessing in disguise.

I still think we drop 10-20% from current levels even with a stimulus bill in place which will only prop the market up short term. 

There's the airline bump,  I couldnt buy yesterday due to my restrictions and now I missed a nice pop

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13 minutes ago, CTM said:

Changes aren't mild, corruption everywhere, and no issue with you /anyone taking exception to McConnell. I do as well. The fact that pedos exist doesn't make me think spousal abuse is ok cause well at least they aren't pedos

Enjoy your day! xoxoxo

One question in this lovefest, I did not read the bill, only I heard supposed excerpts form sides that both trying to prop up their own agenda--Did the bill contain pay raises for Congress?

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6 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

One question in this lovefest, I did not read the bill, only I heard supposed excerpts form sides that both trying to prop up their own agenda--Did the bill contain pay raises for Congress?

Not sure if explicitly. Implicitly yes and it's already happenning. Lobbying is up massively right now

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37 minutes ago, CTM said:

There's the airline bump,  I couldnt buy yesterday due to my restrictions and now I missed a nice pop

I was less than a dollar away for my UAL order to go through. 

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44 minutes ago, CTM said:

There's the airline bump,  I couldnt buy yesterday due to my restrictions and now I missed a nice pop

I finally jumped in this morning at the opening bell. Bought more Southern company (SO) which will pay a 5.6 % dividend. Bought some at 23 eons ago and my only regret was not buying a ton more. Also bought Baker Hughes ( BKR) looking for that oil bounce back and a 7% dividend helps although I didn't buy it for the dividend.

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4 hours ago, Kleckineau said:

This airline play was truly low hanging fruit. 

In - out boom with a good stack.

Get off the bench!

I can't believe I blew it by day trading for a few k. Cost myself significantly more today by being restricted.

So what do we think happens short term. When bad economic data starts surfacing this thing is going to tank again no?, And then maybe pop up and then tank again on bad news

Anyone have any thoughts on volatility trading. I'm trying to learn as much as I can in a short time (I'm not a regular trader, hence the restriction). But i'm thinking there's going to be a lot of yoyo happenning as news changes.

 

 

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11 hours ago, CTM said:

I can't believe I blew it by day trading for a few k. Cost myself significantly more today by being restricted.

So what do we think happens short term. When bad economic data starts surfacing this thing is going to tank again no?, And then maybe pop up and then tank again on bad news

Anyone have any thoughts on volatility trading. I'm trying to learn as much as I can in a short time (I'm not a regular trader, hence the restriction). But i'm thinking there's going to be a lot of yoyo happenning as news changes.

 

 

FIx that acct restriction asap. There are many more bites at the apple coming up. This is far from finished. We will continue to see days of deep selloff and upswings in the near term.

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2 hours ago, Kleckineau said:

FIx that acct restriction asap. There are many more bites at the apple coming up. This is far from finished. We will continue to see days of deep selloff and upswings in the near term.

100% Another hit as soon as unemployment numbers come out. Thursday I think?

I wish I understood this better from a Macro level. The fed is basically inventing 6T of imaginary money right now and pumping it into the economy. 

Wth are the impacts of that in short and long term. Right now being in cash is good

However we are getting an expansion of money and bailouts which equals more short term demand, but since it's not tied to productivity gains the supply side is wonked. Particularly now with people not producing anything, at what point do necessities start to inflate like crazy.

Part of me is thinking the best play here is to buy a truck load of non perishables now while it's still relatively cheap. The minute the cost of this pops, the public, now fresh off their first hit of UBI is going to demand another shot as the #1200 they just got doesn't go very far.. more demand, less supply, prices go up, value of dollar down, more / bigger checks.. vicious cycle.  

The above seems clear but there are short term deflationary pressures I think with so much economic activity halted and liquidity so low

Really feels like the whole damn system is breaking down and we are bordering on an extremely ugly situation.

 

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5 minutes ago, CTM said:

100% Another hit as soon as unemployment numbers come out. Thursday I think?

I wish I understood this better from a Macro level. The fed is basically inventing 6T of imaginary money right now and pumping it into the economy. 

Wth are the impacts of that in short and long term. Right now being in cash is good

However we are getting an expansion of money and bailouts which equals more short term demand, but since it's not tied to productivity gains the supply side is wonked. Particularly now with people not producing anything, at what point do necessities start to inflate like crazy.

Part of me is thinking the best play here is to buy a truck load of non perishables now while it's still relatively cheap. The minute the cost of this pops, the public, now fresh off their first hit of UBI is going to demand another shot as the #1200 they just got doesn't go very far.. more demand, less supply, prices go up, value of dollar down, more / bigger checks.. vicious cycle.  

The above seems clear but there are short term deflationary pressures I think with so much economic activity halted and liquidity so low

Really feels like the whole damn system is breaking down and we are bordering on an extremely ugly situation.

 

Honestly you dig a lot deeper and extrapolate much more than I do. If I crunched as much as you do I would probably not be buying anything and just be sitting wringing my hands. I am a simple trader. I stay within my pay grade. No margins, no puts, calls etc. It has worked well for me. I have a 7 figure 401K that I went to full cash in Feb at DOW 26,200 which represented roughly a 10% haircut. 10% is my personal circuit breaker to move to cash. It worked in 2001 and 2008. Seperately, my brokerage acct. which was largely a buy and hold forever type thing for us got smashed up but by trading in and out of some of the airlines and a few others I have recouped more than 1/2 of the losses and will continue to do that with a sharp eye on preservation of capital. Having lived through previous debacles I learned it always comes back. I crushed it in 2003 and 2009-10 and I am convinced I will do the same here. 

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1 minute ago, Kleckineau said:

Honestly you dig a lot deeper and extrapolate much more than I do. If I crunched as much as you do I would probably not be buying anything and just be sitting wringing my hands. I am a simple trader. I stay within my pay grade. No margins, no puts, calls etc. It has worked well for me. I have a 7 figure 401K that I went to full cash in Feb at DOW 26,200 which represented roughly a 10% haircut. 10% is my personal circuit breaker to move to cash. It worked in 2001 and 2008. Seperately, my brokerage acct. which was largely a buy and hold forever type thing for us got smashed up but by trading in and out of some of the airlines and a few others I have recouped more than 1/2 of the losses and will continue to do that with a sharp eye on preservation of capital. Having lived through previous debacles I learned it always comes back. I crushed it in 2003 and 2009-10 and I am convinced I will do the same here. 

I hear that, but I'm kind of worried what happens with the supply shock/inflation we are about to see. Prices are going to go up rapidly the longer people are panic'd and not producing. My company is exempt as online seller of live animal supplies. We have 2 warehouses in Trump country and suddenly I have people too afraid to come to work (who a week ago thought this was a hoax). So.. we are having to increase wages to keep people coming in. 

Plus we now have the government willing to pay them full wages if they don't work.  Most want to be laid off now, it's a better deal. I can't blame them. Why load product all day and risk illness of the government teet is there for "free" suckling. This is the unintended consequence of most government programs that end up huritng the people they are trying to help. Poor people are going to be impacted first.

That means we have to raise wages even more.

Finally our inventory is dwindling as the supply chain constricts.

All of this results in higher prices. We don't want to do that as sales are down, but we don't have a choice. We sell some pet Rx and there's a real issue there already with supply we can't get our hands on stuff

 What does the government do in response to supply issues?

Throwing money at it just causes huge inflation, which causes more demand and more supply issues and more price increases.

 If they pretend it's a gouging thing and fix prices, people will just stop producing even more., So then what?

The government can't fix this with any of their interventions. You need to fix supply side and eveyrthing they are doing right now hurts supply side

Are people going to be starving and resorting to crime to eat? Not having access to meds? I honestly don't think it's that far fetched.

Maybe people will end up having to work for food. Really don't know

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18 hours ago, CTM said:

I hear that, but I'm kind of worried what happens with the supply shock/inflation we are about to see. Prices are going to go up rapidly the longer people are panic'd and not producing. My company is exempt as online seller of live animal supplies. We have 2 warehouses in Trump country and suddenly I have people too afraid to come to work (who a week ago thought this was a hoax). So.. we are having to increase wages to keep people coming in. 

Plus we now have the government willing to pay them full wages if they don't work.  Most want to be laid off now, it's a better deal. I can't blame them. Why load product all day and risk illness of the government teet is there for "free" suckling. This is the unintended consequence of most government programs that end up huritng the people they are trying to help. Poor people are going to be impacted first.

That means we have to raise wages even more.

Finally our inventory is dwindling as the supply chain constricts.

All of this results in higher prices. We don't want to do that as sales are down, but we don't have a choice. We sell some pet Rx and there's a real issue there already with supply we can't get our hands on stuff

 What does the government do in response to supply issues?

Throwing money at it just causes huge inflation, which causes more demand and more supply issues and more price increases.

 If they pretend it's a gouging thing and fix prices, people will just stop producing even more., So then what?

The government can't fix this with any of their interventions. You need to fix supply side and eveyrthing they are doing right now hurts supply side

Are people going to be starving and resorting to crime to eat? Not having access to meds? I honestly don't think it's that far fetched.

Maybe people will end up having to work for food. Really don't know

If the scenario you describe materializes, and I dont say its impossible, at that point I think trading stocks and managing 401Ks will be the least of our concerns. Also, I dont discount the danger of this virus one iota however I cant help wondering if this is a case where the cure (permanent financial destruction for many from misguided govt intervention) is worse than the disease.

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3 hours ago, Kleckineau said:

Wow 3.2M unemployment number.

 

Record-breaking by far.  The height of the financial crisis in 2008-2009 saw a peak unemployment claims rate of about 700,000.  However, there were some analysts who had predicted even worse for today.  I think Citibank estimated we'd see 4M.  3.2M is still a ridiculously horrible number for one week.....but the fact it wasn't quite as bad as some had feared leads me to believe the hope of the small business stimulus package kept at lease some employers from laying off people for another week or two until they see what the legislation looks like.  I honestly think they need to find a way to hold onto employees for about 3-4 weeks in some way, shape or form (temp furlough, reduced hours/reduced hourly wage, etc.) and then we hopefully start to see the ramp-up again.  We'll hit a point in late April (maybe early May) when people will start hitting restaurants again in fairly large numbers.

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On 3/20/2020 at 1:23 PM, jetstream23 said:

I was buying a little on the close today.  Not a lot....but being 10+ years from retirement it felt like the right time to buy some AMZN, JPM, and GOOGL at discounted prices.

 

The market has been roaring the past 3 days.  I'm holding on....not buying more at the moment.  Actually thinking about selling some thing for quick gains.  I bought MDT and ROKU last week as well.  Up about 30% in a week....it's hard not to take some of that off the table.

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19 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

The market has been roaring the past 3 days.  I'm holding on....not buying more at the moment.  Actually thinking about selling some thing for quick gains.  I bought MDT and ROKU last week as well.  Up about 30% in a week....it's hard not to take some of that off the table.

I don't trust this bounce quite yet. Minimal buying now for me, if at all.

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4 hours ago, Dcat said:

I don't trust this bounce quite yet. Minimal buying now for me, if at all.

We could certainly test the lows again soon but I'll start buying a little more if we head lower.  Not with any money I need in the next year, but averaging in with money I won't need for 10+ years.  

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On 3/18/2020 at 11:02 PM, jetstream23 said:

Talk about an absolutely historic and unbelievable set of circumstances.  I've never seen anything like this in the oil markets with supply increasing rapidly just as demand is falling off a cliff.

The demand side has both secular and cyclical forces at play.  The longterm shift to EV, solar and non-fossil fuels started a few years ago...and now you have everyone home, no airplanes flying and a temporary demand shock which is crushing demand.  Then the Saudis and Russians walk out of the OPEC+ meeting with no supply constraints.  Saudis are talking about pumping upwards of 12B barrels a day starting in April.

This isn't usually how economics and supply/demand works.  Oil hit an 18 year low today to just over $20 a barrel.  That's nuts.  It may bounce around here for a while but my guess is that unless some businesses truly turn off the pumps, shutter the wells, or the Saudis and Russians blink.....we'll go even lower.  Nobody ever thought we'd see $20 oil again even in the face of a burgeoning EV and Alt Energy market.  My completely bold guess....we hit $10 before we ever hit $40 again.

 

On 3/19/2020 at 2:57 PM, 14 in Green said:

This aged well. 😜

1049646210_ScreenShot2020-03-30at8_40_38AM.thumb.png.d4e3160e1eafba815d6ea7f7e84f0d90.png

 

As I said......$10 before $40

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5 hours ago, Kleckineau said:

Are we off the bottom already? 

Bear market suckers rally?

History says most bear markets have a double bottom.

Will we see it soon?

I'd call it a bear market sucker rally because when all of the fundamentals trickle through it will paint a picture of not only how bad our economy is going forward but also the global ramifications.

I also think this will be drawn out over time just like most bear markets and the fact that we didn't correct enough. 

Time will tell but I see the market going much lower even when the virus subsides. 

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On 3/25/2020 at 11:29 AM, Kleckineau said:

If the scenario you describe materializes, and I dont say its impossible, at that point I think trading stocks and managing 401Ks will be the least of our concerns. Also, I dont discount the danger of this virus one iota however I cant help wondering if this is a case where the cure (permanent financial destruction for many from misguided govt intervention) is worse than the disease.

Look you don’t need to go far to see very dire scenarios if we don’t get back to work in June at the latest. 

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On 3/30/2020 at 8:04 PM, RobR said:

I'd call it a bear market sucker rally because when all of the fundamentals trickle through it will paint a picture of not only how bad our economy is going forward but also the global ramifications.

I also think this will be drawn out over time just like most bear markets and the fact that we didn't correct enough. 

Time will tell but I see the market going much lower even when the virus subsides. 

 

4 hours ago, batman10023 said:

Look you don’t need to go far to see very dire scenarios if we don’t get back to work in June at the latest. 

The 2008 crash had 2 bear market rally's of over 5 percent before finally crashing.  I say we are near bottom but probably a few weeks away. I  am starting to see real panic in people.....      

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