Anyone buying stock this week ?

[RedBeardedSavage]

On 3/18/2020 at 5:47 PM, RedBeardedSavage said:

Took a chance on some Tesla stock yesterday. Maybe a 'huge tiny mistake' but I love my Model 3 and think they're miles ahead technologically over any other automaker on the market. 

Plan to hold it for the long term. 

Definitely concerned, though... How many people are going to buy $40,000+ cars anytime soon, especially with oil prices tanking? Bit of a gamble for sure. 

But yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaa... we'll see; still love the company. 

?

[Dunnie]

In betting the W ...but not selling out. I don't believe in a crash or a V.

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[Maxman]

11 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

In betting the W ...but not selling out. I don't believe in a crash or a V.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using JetNation.com mobile app
 

Question:  The W means the bounce back will have an up and down? Versus a V that is a straight bounce back?

[Dunnie]

Question:  The W means the bounce back will have an up and down? Versus a V that is a straight bounce back?

Yep

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[jetstream23]

On 3/18/2020 at 11:02 PM, jetstream23 said:

Talk about an absolutely historic and unbelievable set of circumstances.  I've never seen anything like this in the oil markets with supply increasing rapidly just as demand is falling off a cliff.

The demand side has both secular and cyclical forces at play.  The longterm shift to EV, solar and non-fossil fuels started a few years ago...and now you have everyone home, no airplanes flying and a temporary demand shock which is crushing demand.  Then the Saudis and Russians walk out of the OPEC+ meeting with no supply constraints.  Saudis are talking about pumping upwards of 12B barrels a day starting in April.

This isn't usually how usual economics and supply/demand works.  Oil hit an 18 year low today to just over $20 a barrel.  That's nuts.  It may bounce around here for a while but my guess is that unless some businesses truly turn off the pumps, shutter the wells, or the Saudis and Russians blink.....we'll go even lower.  Nobody ever thought we'd see $20 oil again even in the face of a burgeoning EV and Alt Energy market.  My completely bold guess....we hit $10 before we ever hit $40 again.

 

On 3/19/2020 at 2:57 PM, 14 in Green said:

This aged well. ?

 

My only problem is that I didn't short more of this stuff....

 

March 18th, @14 in Green ....

[14 in Green]

Just now, jetstream23 said:

 

 

My only problem is that I didn't short more of this stuff....

 

March 18th, @14 in Green ....

Amazing, isn't it?

I think you misunderstood my original quote, I was commenting on how precipitous the decline was, and agreeing with your premise...

That said, you're a lot bolder than I am. The only time I ever really took a beating in the market was back in the 80's playing margins. Haven't done that since. As I've gotten older, I've become a lot more conservative with my investment strategies.

[southparkcpa]

14 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

Amazing, isn't it?

I think you misunderstood my original quote, I was commenting on how precipitous the decline was, and agreeing with your premise...

That said, you're a lot bolder than I am. The only time I ever really took a beating in the market was back in the 80's playing margins. Haven't done that since. As I've gotten older, I've become a lot more conservative with my investment strategies.

Shot back to back 80's Fri and Saturday.  84 on Sunday.  Handicap down to 13.   Driving the ball much better, putting better. Still struggle from 160 to 200 and around the greens.  Afraid to chip, using putter much too much. 

[14 in Green]

Just now, southparkcpa said:

Shot back to back 80's Fri and Saturday.  84 on Sunday.  Handicap down to 13.   Driving the ball much better, putting better. Still struggle from 160 to 200 and around the greens.  Afraid to chip, using putter much too much. 

Chipping is my weakness also. So many tight lies around the greens down here. When I play up on Long Island, I chip a lot better. The ball sits better on bent grass. Bermuda is a bi*ch.

Did something I never thought I'd do. I ordered a Square Stryke wedge, and it's been phenomenal. I was a little embarrassed to put it in the bag at first, but it's changed my short game from a weakness to almost a strength.

The hardest decision is which club do I take out of the bag to make room for it? I usually take out my 3 wood, because I really don't lose much with my 18* hybrid. I've been goofing around with it on the range hitting 90 yard shots into the green, so I considered dropping the 52*, but I need to get a lot more comfortable on the full swing experiment to do that. I might just take the 52* and 58* out and replace them with a 56*

Give the Square Stryke a try. I think it cost $79, and you can return it for a full refund if you don't like it. The club is great though. You just have to use a putting stroke. The best part is using that stroke seems to have helped me when using the regular wedges also. It turns out that's the way Spieth chips.

[jetstream23]

Nobody has ever seen this before.  When was the last time you got an alert from a mainstream media company like CNN about the price of oil?

[jetstream23]

For those who don't follow this stuff (and I only know it superficially and enough to be dangerous) we've hit a point where Oil futures contracts (which prices a barrel of oil to be delivered at some point in the future) have gone negative for the month of May.  This essentially means that companies are paying poeple to take delivery of oil to be produced in May.

Why would they do this instead of just shutting down their production? (I had the same question)  It's because it can cost several hundred thousand dollars to shutdown an oil well.  Not just that, but it's risky and it's not guaranteed that you'd be able to bring that well back online again in the future or get it to produce the way it was.

These are truly strange days.  May contracts are set to expire, the next one to watch is the June contract.  It's also down today but still hovering around $21 per barrel.

Crazy times indeed.

[RobR]

32 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

For those who don't follow this stuff (and I only know it superficially and enough to be dangerous) we've hit a point where Oil futures contracts (which prices a barrel of oil to be delivered at some point in the future) have gone negative for the month of May.  This essentially means that companies are paying poeple to take delivery of oil to be produced in May.

Why would they do this instead of just shutting down their production? (I had the same question)  It's because it can cost several hundred thousand dollars to shutdown an oil well.  Not just that, but it's risky and it's not guaranteed that you'd be able to bring that well back online again in the future or get it to produce the way it was.

These are truly strange days.  May contracts are set to expire, the next one to watch is the June contract.  It's also down today but still hovering around $21 per barrel.

Crazy times indeed.

I've never seen anything like this in my lifetime. I guess I must of skipped that day in economics class.

[Maxman]

9 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

For those who don't follow this stuff (and I only know it superficially and enough to be dangerous) we've hit a point where Oil futures contracts (which prices a barrel of oil to be delivered at some point in the future) have gone negative for the month of May.  This essentially means that companies are paying poeple to take delivery of oil to be produced in May.

Why would they do this instead of just shutting down their production? (I had the same question)  It's because it can cost several hundred thousand dollars to shutdown an oil well.  Not just that, but it's risky and it's not guaranteed that you'd be able to bring that well back online again in the future or get it to produce the way it was.

These are truly strange days.  May contracts are set to expire, the next one to watch is the June contract.  It's also down today but still hovering around $21 per barrel.

Crazy times indeed.

They should setup a shopify store. I want 3 barrels.

[RutgersJetFan]

25 minutes ago, Maxman said:

They should setup a shopify store. I want 3 barrels.

Was literally telling my wife today we should invest in a few thousand barrels and some Public Storage units.

[Maxman]

1 hour ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Was literally telling my wife today we should invest in a few thousand barrels and some Public Storage units.

I think I could get a few hundred of them in my back yard. Getting them out won't be a lot of fun. But it would be worth the money when they are $70 a barrel again. 

 

[southparkcpa]

18 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

For those who don't follow this stuff (and I only know it superficially and enough to be dangerous) we've hit a point where Oil futures contracts (which prices a barrel of oil to be delivered at some point in the future) have gone negative for the month of May.  This essentially means that companies are paying poeple to take delivery of oil to be produced in May.

Why would they do this instead of just shutting down their production? (I had the same question)  It's because it can cost several hundred thousand dollars to shutdown an oil well.  Not just that, but it's risky and it's not guaranteed that you'd be able to bring that well back online again in the future or get it to produce the way it was.

These are truly strange days.  May contracts are set to expire, the next one to watch is the June contract.  It's also down today but still hovering around $21 per barrel.

Crazy times indeed.

Think about a world with so much less oil consumption.  200 years ago, the Middle east was a poor region of the world.  In 50 more years it will be poor  again.  Yes, air travel will come back but auto usage and oil usage in general will never again be at the levels it has had been in the years 50's to 90's.

But what we see now is incredible.. almost NO oil consumption so yes, as we learned from Paul Samuelson (trivia), demand drops, price falls.

 

[Kleckineau]

 

1 hour ago, southparkcpa said:

Think about a world with so much less oil consumption.  200 years ago, the Middle east was a poor region of the world.  In 50 more years it will be poor  again.  Yes, air travel will come back but auto usage and oil usage in general will never again be at the levels it has had been in the years 50's to 90's.

But what we see now is incredible.. almost NO oil consumption so yes, as we kearned from Paul Samuelson (trivia), demand drops, price falls.

 

Is it any coincidence the Saudis took Aramco public late last year cashing out on a decent chunk of their oil business and cushioning themselves for exactly what we see today? 

[JOJOTOWNSELL]

This market refuses to go down, i like it

[JOJOTOWNSELL]

Annnd i jinxed it lol

[jetstream23]

On 4/29/2020 at 10:01 PM, JOJOTOWNSELL said:

This market refuses to go down, i like it

Your jinx is off.

These are crazy days indeed.  I'm not shorting this market but I am starting to sell here as this "melt up" continues.  We've just come back too far too fast in my opinion.  In any kind of best case do we see unemployment dropping back down towards 5% in the next year?  What about flying....I think it might take 2-3 years to get back to 2019 air travel levels.  It just seems crazy that the overall stock market is approaching its all-time highs again in an environment where we're slowly opening the economy, the Government has thrown over $2 Trillion at the problem and we're hovering at 15% unemployment.  I just don't see any scenario where we get back to where we were in 2019 at any point in the next 2-3 years.  There will be permanent changes to everyday things like eating at restaurants, flying, etc.  If we thought flying became an inconvenience after 9/11 with TSA screenings, taking off shoes, etc. just wait until we see ticket prices for planes that may only fly with 70 people onboard and where every seat, tray table and armrest needs to be cleaned after every flight!  Talk about adding costs to the system!  How much is a restaurant owner going to pay per square foot for restaurant space where he may only be allowed to serve 50% of the people he served in the past?  

There's certainly pent up demand and we'll have a snapback of economic activity once we let everyone loose to go to movie theaters, restaurants and clothing stores again.....but it will be far less robust in my opinion.  I don't think the stock market is reflecting that yet.  We may need to take a step back.  I don't think we'll retest the lows of late March, but I wouldn't be surprised if the market take a breather here at some point and we see at 7-10% drop.   A potential trigger would be news that some key cities or states that started reopening get a resurgence of coronavirus cases and need to shut down again, limit more economic activity, etc.

[Kleckineau]

5 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

Your jinx is off.

These are crazy days indeed.  I'm not shorting this market but I am starting to sell here as this "melt up" continues.  We've just come back too far too fast in my opinion.  In any kind of best case do we see unemployment dropping back down towards 5% in the next year?  What about flying....I think it might take 2-3 years to get back to 2019 air travel levels.  It just seems crazy that the overall stock market is approaching its all-time highs again in an environment where we're slowly opening the economy, the Government has thrown over $2 Trillion at the problem and we're hovering at 15% unemployment. ........................

I read all you wrote and it is a very rational and measured assessment of where the market stands however nothing about this market is making any sense. This is virgin territory. Personally, I have taken advantage of the melt up buying back in slowly. I now stand about 45% invested and will likely continue to buy the dips. The Dow is still 5000  (20%+-) points lower from its highs and the broader market, S&P, Wilshire are similarly off. That tells me there is still room to rise and I am hopeful it continues. So far it looks like a V shaped recovery and not the W most of us predicted. I agree with what you said about airlines ( I was able to crush a few in out airline trades) and restaurants but I think retail, manufacturing and most other sectors will be rehiring / recalling layoffs this fall. At the most recent economic peak hiring was a problem in that businesses couldnt hire enough people. That problem may actually worsen.

[Kleckineau]

Is it officially a 

V 

shaped equities market recovery?

[Dunnie]

I do t think we are clear of a massive W yet.

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[Kleckineau]

Post covid unemployment reversal is beginning.

Re-opening of the economy is the impetus.

Seems now that March April May period was the equities investment opportunity of a lifetime I thought it could be.

I'm fairly certain of the V shaped recovery now.

[Maxman]

On 6/5/2020 at 9:54 AM, Kleckineau said:

Post covid unemployment reversal is beginning.

Re-opening of the economy is the impetus.

Seems now that March April May period was the equities investment opportunity of a lifetime I thought it could be.

I'm fairly certain of the V shaped recovery now.

It is looking that way. My 401k is back to where it was, thanks in large part to contributions but it is headed in the right direction for sure.

[Rangers9]

On 6/5/2020 at 9:54 AM, Kleckineau said:

Post covid unemployment reversal is beginning.

Re-opening of the economy is the impetus.

Seems now that March April May period was the equities investment opportunity of a lifetime I thought it could be.

I'm fairly certain of the V shaped recovery now.

I hope you're right but economists I've heard say V shaped is a pipe dream. And the May unemployment report had a +3 mistake. And we are not post Covid by any means. 

[Kleckineau]

29 minutes ago, Rangers9 said:

I hope you're right but economists I've heard say V shaped is a pipe dream. And the May unemployment report had a +3 mistake. And we are not post Covid by any means. 

Pipe dream?  Economists say one thing, traders say another. We will know for sure by fall if it makes a W but having said that, an investment opportunity of massive proportion has occupied the fast lane since March and it has to pain those that remained on the sideline and or worse sold at the bottom and stayed in cash.  

[Rangers9]

1 hour ago, Kleckineau said:

Pipe dream?  Economists say one thing, traders say another. We will know for sure by fall if it makes a W but having said that, an investment opportunity of massive proportion has occupied the fast lane since March and it has to pain those that remained on the sideline and or worse sold at the bottom and stayed in cash.  

V shaped refers to return of the economy not the stock market. It's best case scenario. And if there's a spike in the virus it won't happen.

[Kleckineau]

58 minutes ago, Rangers9 said:

V shaped refers to return of the economy not the stock market. It's best case scenario. And if there's a spike in the virus it won't happen.

 

Looks like a recent stock market chart and looks like a V to me.

Could it reverse and make a W? Of course nobody has a crystal ball but if it does it can be another opportunity if handled correctly.

[Rangers9]

A V so far for the stock market not a V for the economy. It's two different things. 

[Kleckineau]

It isnt 2 different things. I would be glad to explain how corporate profits, hiring, employment, equity, bond, energy and comodities markets are the life blood of the American economy as I have studied and participated in it for decades but that would take much too long and this is not what we signed up for here. Also, I sense you have your mind closed to any near term post covid positive outcome economic scenarios and may actually prefer the alternate model you describe so I will just say best of luck.?

[Rangers9]

2 hours ago, Kleckineau said:

It isnt 2 different things. I would be glad to explain how corporate profits, hiring, employment, equity, bond, energy and comodities markets are the life blood of the American economy as I have studied and participated in it for decades but that would take much too long and this is not what we signed up for here. Also, I sense you have your mind closed to any near term post covid positive outcome economic scenarios and may actually prefer the alternate model you describe so I will just say best of luck.?

I'm all for ending COVID, but not for dreaming it away. I'm not an economist but I did major in it as an undergrad and I know the economy is not the same thing as the stock market. About 50% of the population invests in the stock market. 

[jetstream23]

On 6/7/2020 at 9:58 AM, Rangers9 said:

I hope you're right but economists I've heard say V shaped is a pipe dream. And the May unemployment report had a +3 mistake. And we are not post Covid by any means. 

The stock market is having a V shaped recovery.

The economy won't quite get that in my opinion.  Maybe more like a U or the Nike swoosh.

Jobs are coming back but I think we'll hit a wall.  Not every job will return and not every small business will have been able to weather this storm.  Some won't come back.  Same with some large businesses.  JC Penney, Hertz, J Crew, etc. filed for bankruptcy in the past couple months.

But the stock market is another story.  Reopenings are happening, the Federal Reserve has become infinitely accommodative and the government just put $1,200 and $2,400 payments into the hands of millions of individuals and households.  THAT is recipe for turbo-charged market.  Where else are you going to put your money..... a 1% bond?

Like many people, I still have a hard time believing what I'm seeing and I wonder how long it will last.  I thought the run up in the market from the late March lows would stop around 2850 on the S&P 500.  We've completely blown past that and I've heard a few analysts with good track records talking about 3500 by year end.

I'm not really buying more on this continued ride up.  But I'm not short.  I took all of my hedges off several weeks ago selling them at a loss.  But they did their job because all my long stuff has been riding the wave.  Not sure how long this will last but if it continues to move higher I'll probably start selling a little, essentially pocketing profits.

Good luck to all.  Unprecedented times for sure.

 

[Rangers9]

This pandemic will probably push the economy in ways it was heading anyways. Brick and mortar was faltering online shopping seems to be the wave of the present and the future. Even though I just read that the Mall of America will be reopening. Also more people will be working from home especially over the next year. That can hurt the economy esp of cities and knock down revenues for mass transportation. And renewed talk of a 4 day week something that’s been talked about for years. But the key driver will be the virus until they get a vaccine. 

[jetstream23]

19 hours ago, Rangers9 said:

This pandemic will probably push the economy in ways it was heading anyways. Brick and mortar was faltering online shopping seems to be the wave of the present and the future. Even though I just read that the Mall of America will be reopening. Also more people will be working from home especially over the next year. That can hurt the economy esp of cities and knock down revenues for mass transportation. And renewed talk of a 4 day week something that’s been talked about for years. But the key driver will be the virus until they get a vaccine. 

Shopping malls are a very interesting topic.  Do many of them simply close up or do they just change?  I've heard that some malls are looking to convert to mixed use including offices and shopping.  Whether it's offices, experience-based businesses or more restaurants taking their place, one thing seems clear - Traditional retail (clothing, electronics, furniture, etc.) will continue to decline as a percentage of the floor space in shopping malls.  What does a current "shopping mall" look like in 2030?

[Rangers9]

37 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Shopping malls are a very interesting topic.  Do many of them simply close up or do they just change?  I've heard that some malls are looking to convert to mixed use including offices and shopping.  Whether it's offices, experience-based businesses or more restaurants taking their place, one thing seems clear - Traditional retail (clothing, electronics, furniture, etc.) will continue to decline as a percentage of the floor space in shopping malls.  What does a current "shopping mall" look like in 2030?

There’s a big Sears near where I live that closed down and it’s in what seems to be prime retail area across the street from a medium sized mall. And nothing in about a year has come into effect the place is vacant. The mall across the street before the virus had a Macy’s that was their lead store and it along with many Macy’s stores closed down permanently in March. So when that mall does open you’d assume there will be less traffic without the Macy’s. There is an IKEA and a Target plus other stores a few chains like The Gap and independents. I’ve seen other malls lose key stores and convert to smaller stores and offices but it never seemed to ever work out at least for one or two in this area.