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8 Most Likely Jets Picks at #11


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8 Most Likely Jets Picks at #11  

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  1. 1. All 8 of these players won't be on the board at #11, but if they all are, who would be your FIRST CHOICE?

    • Jedrick Wills OT Alabama
      12
    • Andrew Thomas OT UGA
      74
    • Tristan Wirfs OT Iowa
      27
    • Mekhi Becton OT Louisville
      13
    • CeeDee Lamb WR Oklahoma
      7
    • Jerry Jeudy WR Alabama
      3
    • Henry Ruggs WR Alabama
      1
    • K'Lavon Chaisson Edge LSU
      1
  2. 2. All 8 of these players won't be on the board at #11, but if they all are, who would be your SECOND CHOICE?

    • Jedrick Wills OT Alabama
      21
    • Andrew Thomas OT UGA
      29
    • Tristan Wirfs OT Iowa
      51
    • Mekhi Becton OT Louisville
      11
    • CeeDee Lamb WR Oklahoma
      9
    • Jerry Jeudy WR Alabama
      10
    • Henry Ruggs WR Alabama
      3
    • K'Lavon Chaisson Edge LSU
      4
  3. 3. Which of these 8 do you think would be GOOD picks at #11? (Select all that apply)

    • Jedrick Wills OT Alabama
      88
    • Andrew Thomas OT UGA
      102
    • Tristan Wirfs OT Iowa
      101
    • Mekhi Becton OT Louisville
      76
    • CeeDee Lamb WR Oklahoma
      77
    • Jerry Jeudy WR Alabama
      81
    • Henry Ruggs WR Alabama
      25
    • K'Lavon Chaisson Edge LSU
      11
  4. 4. Which of these 8 do you think would be BAD picks at #11? (Select all that apply)

    • Jedrick Wills OT Alabama
      14
    • Andrew Thomas OT UGA
      4
    • Tristan Wirfs OT Iowa
      6
    • Mekhi Becton OT Louisville
      23
    • CeeDee Lamb WR Oklahoma
      15
    • Jerry Jeudy WR Alabama
      9
    • Henry Ruggs WR Alabama
      55
    • K'Lavon Chaisson Edge LSU
      81
    • None would be a bad choice
      27


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15 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

There is no Mawae or Mangold in this class.

I used to be big on Biadasz but his bowl game performance was so utterly sh*tastic that he can pretty much kiss goodbye any chance he previously had at going in the Top 40, much less the Top 20.

I think the Centers from Michigan and LSU may be better players and athletes.  

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3 minutes ago, New York Mick said:

I’d rather have a Mangold or Mawae on the team then a long shot at another position. 

What you're discounting is that it is an even greater long shot for a drafted center to become Mangold or Mawae in the first place. Further, that neither team drafting those 2 centers had to use a high 1st round pick on them. They weren't even the first pick their own teams made in those drafts, and rightly so, since those players they did take earlier weren't available later. That's why it matters not just which players you pick, but where you pick them (i.e. positional importance). 

You take a guy at a position worth the 11th pick in the country or trade down. A center is not worth the 11th pick in the country, and even if you could cherry pick a few over time, you could only do so with the benefit of hindsight. You're far more likely to be wrong than right, and you could cherry pick a whole lot more players at other positions to take there.

Since the merger 50 years ago how many centers were taken with a top 20 pick? 10. How many of those 10 "best center in the draft" picks were still worth that pick with the benefit of hindsight? 3. And maybe not even that, since there was still probably another more valuable player available.  

And c'mon you know perfectly well there's no way the draft will be down to its "5th-best tackle" prospect by pick #11. Odds are at least one of the top 3 will still be there, and if they aren't then one of the top 2-3 WRs and/or the top 1-2 edge rushers surely will. There's no calculus where center becomes the next-best prospect on the board at #11. 

Name any team that's won a SB because of drafting a center anywhere in round 1 (never mind in/around a top 10 pick). That, if taking a different player in that slot, the team wouldn't have won or even made it to the SB in the first place. 

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19 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

What you're discounting is that it is an even greater long shot for a drafted center to become Mangold or Mawae in the first place. Further, that neither team drafting those 2 centers had to use a high 1st round pick on them. They weren't even the first pick their own teams made in those drafts, and rightly so, since those players they did take earlier weren't available later. That's why it matters not just which players you pick, but where you pick them (i.e. positional importance). 

You take a guy at a position worth the 11th pick in the country or trade down. A center is not worth the 11th pick in the country, and even if you could cherry pick a few over time, you could only do so with the benefit of hindsight. You're far more likely to be wrong than right, and you could cherry pick a whole lot more players at other positions to take there.

Since the merger 50 years ago how many centers were taken with a top 20 pick? 10. How many of those 10 "best center in the draft" picks were still worth that pick with the benefit of hindsight? 3. And maybe not even that, since there was still probably another more valuable player available.  

And c'mon you know perfectly well there's no way the draft will be down to its "5th-best tackle" prospect by pick #11. Odds are at least one of the top 3 will still be there, and if they aren't then one of the top 2-3 WRs and/or the top 1-2 edge rushers surely will. There's no calculus where center becomes the next-best prospect on the board at #11. 

Name any team that's won a SB because of drafting a center anywhere in round 1 (never mind in/around a top 10 pick). That, if taking a different player in that slot, the team wouldn't have won or even made it to the SB in the first place. 

I don’t care where someone is drafted. They’re either useful or not. An all pro center is better then a player on the bench. 

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38 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

There is no Mawae or Mangold in this class.

I used to be big on Biadasz but his bowl game performance was so utterly sh*tastic that he can pretty much kiss goodbye any chance he previously had at going in the Top 40, much less the Top 20.

I wouldn’t draft Biadasz either. He looked awful in the bowl game. 

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Any of the four tackles by a mile.  Becton being my #1 with the highest ceiling. Smart young BEAST manchild.

A sexy wideout would be fun but diminished value without 2 seconds to get him the ball

Also take advantage of the huge bubble of WR’s in the later rounds. The OT class is pretty deep but there’s a drop off after the first 4-5 guys that will be long gone in the second round. 
 

Round 1 has to be tackle imo

Round 2 I prefer another Tackle like Niang, Peart, Adams or IOL like Ruiz or Biadecsz (sp)

then round 3-7 look at the wideouts like Mims, golden-gandy, Reagor May be there after disappointing 40 last night 

Also this is a very deep CB and RB class.  The wideout bumper crop will push these guys down

IMO this is one of the deepest drafts in history.  Play the WR class gamely.  Taking a WR at 11 (even the blue chip guys) doesn’t allow you to take advantage of the depth of wideouts, quality starters will be available days 2-3.  
 

OT is the biggest need and the only way to get a stud is at 11. 

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18 minutes ago, David Harris said:

Any of the four tackles by a mile.  Becton being my #1 with the highest ceiling. Smart young BEAST manchild.

A sexy wideout would be fun but diminished value without 2 seconds to get him the ball

Also take advantage of the huge bubble of WR’s in the later rounds. The OT class is pretty deep but there’s a drop off after the first 4-5 guys that will be long gone in the second round. 
 

Round 1 has to be tackle imo

Round 2 I prefer another Tackle like Niang, Peart, Adams or IOL like Ruiz or Biadecsz (sp)

then round 3-7 look at the wideouts like Mims, golden-gandy, Reagor May be there after disappointing 40 last night 

Also this is a very deep CB and RB class.  The wideout bumper crop will push these guys down

IMO this is one of the deepest drafts in history.  Play the WR class gamely.  Taking a WR at 11 (even the blue chip guys) doesn’t allow you to take advantage of the depth of wideouts, quality starters will be available days 2-3.  
 

OT is the biggest need and the only way to get a stud is at 11. 

douglas will ace this draft if he doesn't overthink it, believing he can 1) trade back and still get his preferred OT in round 1, 2) draft BAP in round 1 if this happens to be defense and compensate for this by drafting OTs and wrs on day 2, 3) drafting a db in the 2nd and leaving wr for the 3rd round.  don't overthink it, help the qb and rebuild the offense as quickly as possible.

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1 hour ago, New York Mick said:

I don’t care where someone is drafted. They’re either useful or not. An all pro center is better then a player on the bench. 

Again you're baselessly presuming any center you draft is an all pro, but anyone else is going to be a player on the bench. Most all pro centers are not drafted in round 1. However most all pro tackles are. 

With the benefit of hindsight - and only armed with the benefit of hindsight - if you want to say we'd have been better off taking an all pro player at (whatever position) instead of a bust at a high dollar position? Yeah duh. But we're better off still taking a high value player who isn't a bust at #11, at a position you cannot typically fill adequately later in the draft. 

Here are the highest paid centers in the league:

  1. Rodney Hudson = round 2 #55 pick
  2. Mitch Morse = round 2 #49
  3. Maurkice Pouncey = round 1 #18 (honestly the only one you could say, with the benefit of hindsight, that was worthy of a 1st round slot. But might Pittsburgh have still been better off with a different player? They've won zero SBs without him, and the only one they made was his rookie season)
  4. Nick Martin = round 2 #50 (remember when Houston leapfrogged us and Maccagnan thought it was to draft Hackenberg?)
  5. JC Tretter = round 4 #122
  6. R. Jensen = round 6 #203
  7. B. Linder = round 2 #93
  8. Paradis = round 6 pick #207
  9. Richburg = round 2 pick #43
  10. Frederick = round 1 pick #31 (and was considered a huge reach there; they got their guy, but they could have gotten him at least 15 slots later, if not a full round later, and gotten another 1st round prospect instead of their 2nd rounder Escobar in the process. That's why it matters where you take them. Regardless, even in a weak 1st round where it was cheap to trade up, they still weren't trading up to anywhere near #11 to take him)
  11. Mike Pouncey = round 1 #15 back in 2011, and given how much failure the team had in the ensuing seasons, wasn't even a smart pick that high even with his 4 pro bowls (one of them at guard not center). The next pick was Ryan Kerrigan who may top 100 sacks this year. Cameron Jordan was also on the board, who may do the same. So were a couple LTs. Positional value that would have helped Miami more than a center.  
  12. Justin Britt = round 2 #64
  13. Alex Mack = round 1 #21. Again, a good player but was he (or any center) really going to help keep Cleveland out of the gutter?
  14. Linsley = round 5 #161
  15. Ryan Kalil = forget last year. He was great once, but he was a bottom-2nd round pick at #59
  16. J.Kelce = round 6 #191
  17. T.Hopkins = undrafted
  18. Ben Jones = round 4 #99
  19. most of the rest are lower priced because they're on rookie contracts or because it's just not that important in comparison. Like Ted Karras, 6th rounder for NE making the league minimum.
  20. (actually #28) Austin Reiter = round 7

Compare that to where teams draft their left tackles.

If the Jets take a center at #11 this year Douglas should be fired. It has no chance of happening, though. Enough of drafting the cheapest positions with our highest picks, and then trying fill the hardest to find and most expensive to sign positions later in the draft or in free agency.

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28 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Again you're baselessly presuming any center you draft is an all pro, but anyone else is going to be a player on the bench. Most all pro centers are not drafted in round 1. However most all pro tackles are. 

With the benefit of hindsight - and only armed with the benefit of hindsight - if you want to say we'd have been better off taking an all pro player at (whatever position) instead of a bust at a high dollar position? Yeah duh. But we're better off still taking a high value player who isn't a bust at #11, at a position you cannot typically fill adequately later in the draft. 

Here are the highest paid centers in the league:

  1. Rodney Hudson = round 2 #55 pick
  2. Mitch Morse = round 2 #49
  3. Maurkice Pouncey = round 1 #18 (honestly the only one you could say, with the benefit of hindsight, that was worthy of a 1st round slot. But might Pittsburgh have still been better off with a different player? They've won zero SBs without him, and the only one they made was his rookie season)
  4. Nick Martin = round 2 #50 (remember when Houston leapfrogged us and Maccagnan thought it was to draft Hackenberg?)
  5. JC Tretter = round 4 #122
  6. R. Jensen = round 6 #203
  7. B. Linder = round 2 #93
  8. Paradis = round 6 pick #207
  9. Richburg = round 2 pick #43
  10. Frederick = round 1 pick #31 (and was considered a huge reach there; they got their guy, but they could have gotten him at least 15 slots later, if not a full round later, and gotten another 1st round prospect instead of their 2nd rounder Escobar in the process. That's why it matters where you take them. Regardless, even in a weak 1st round where it was cheap to trade up, they still weren't trading up to anywhere near #11 to take him)
  11. Mike Pouncey = round 1 #15 back in 2011, and given how much failure the team had in the ensuing seasons, wasn't even a smart pick that high even with his 4 pro bowls (one of them at guard not center). The next pick was Ryan Kerrigan who may top 100 sacks this year. Cameron Jordan was also on the board, who may do the same. So were a couple LTs. Positional value that would have helped Miami more than a center.  
  12. Justin Britt = round 2 #64
  13. Alex Mack = round 1 #21. Again, a good player but was he (or any center) really going to help keep Cleveland out of the gutter?
  14. Linsley = round 5 #161
  15. Ryan Kalil = forget last year. He was great once, but he was a bottom-2nd round pick at #59
  16. J.Kelce = round 6 #191
  17. T.Hopkins = undrafted
  18. Ben Jones = round 4 #99
  19. most of the rest are lower priced because they're on rookie contracts or because it's just not that important in comparison. Like Ted Karras, 6th rounder for NE making the league minimum.
  20. (actually #28) Austin Reiter = round 7

Compare that to where teams draft their left tackles.

If the Jets take a center at #11 this year Douglas should be fired. It has no chance of happening, though. Enough of drafting the cheapest positions with our highest picks, and then trying fill the hardest to find and most expensive to sign positions later in the draft or in free agency.

I am basing it off of the highest rank player and his position is probably going to be better than the fifth ranked player at his position. And you always respond with a novel lol

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1 hour ago, New York Mick said:

I am basing it off of the highest rank player and his position is probably going to be better than the fifth ranked player at his position. And you always respond with a novel lol

To your last point, you already knew this about me lol.

I don't see where you're getting it from that, by pick #11, the highest rated player remaining at any position in this draft (or any) draft could possibly be the 5th rated player at that position. Has that ever happened? Why would it happen this year, that 4 OTs would get drafted in the first 10 picks? And if it does happen, along with maybe 2-3 QBs, a CB, and a DT, then we'll get a stud WR or edge rusher that fell instead.  

Also look at all the playoff teams this year and how important they think the position is. The SB champs had a young starting center, snapping to their young stud QB, and let him go to FA over an $11MM/year contract they could have easily sewn up themselves.

Literally the only 2019 playoff team that drafted its center in round 1 was Minnesota, and so far it looks like the draft's highest rated center is also the 3rd-best of the class. The next 2, taken in the 2nd round (which is something of a sweet spot for highly drafting a center over the last decade or so), are both better players. The Saints took one in round 2, but that was out of sudden desperation on a win-now team after Unger suddenly retired in mid-March, otherwise they wouldn't have taken one even that high either. 

Kinda 8 / kinda 9* of the 12 playoff teams found their starting center either in round 4 or later, or through free agency rather than the draft. That also includes all 4 of the 4 championship game teams. 

 

*Seattle's center for the last 1/3 of the season was their 6th round backup. Carson's ypc rose with Hunt in Britt's place (4.8ypc vs 4.1).

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1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

To your last point, you already knew this about me lol.

I don't see where you're getting it from that, by pick #11, the highest rated player remaining at any position in this draft (or any) draft could possibly be the 5th rated player at that position. Has that ever happened? Why would it happen this year, that 4 OTs would get drafted in the first 10 picks? And if it does happen, along with maybe 2-3 QBs, a CB, and a DT, then we'll get a stud WR or edge rusher that fell instead.  

Also look at all the playoff teams this year and how important they think the position is. The SB champs had a young starting center, snapping to their young stud QB, and let him go to FA over an $11MM/year contract they could have easily sewn up themselves.

Literally the only 2019 playoff team that drafted its center in round 1 was Minnesota, and so far it looks like the draft's highest rated center is also the 3rd-best of the class. The next 2, taken in the 2nd round (which is something of a sweet spot for highly drafting a center over the last decade or so), are both better players. The Saints took one in round 2, but that was out of sudden desperation on a win-now team after Unger suddenly retired in mid-March, otherwise they wouldn't have taken one even that high either. 

Kinda 8 / kinda 9* of the 12 playoff teams found their starting center either in round 4 or later, or through free agency rather than the draft. That also includes all 4 of the 4 championship game teams. 

 

*Seattle's center for the last 1/3 of the season was their 6th round backup. Carson's ypc rose with Hunt in Britt's place (4.8ypc vs 4.1).

3rd, 4th, 5th. I was just putting a number on it. It changes every year. That might not one OT worth a top pick (or any position that’s needed) so you take the next most important position available if there’s a top guy available if not then go to the next position etc. 

Outside of QB. You take chances on QBs 

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This thread is on point. Based on the combine so far, i would absolutely love ceedee, thomas or wirfs at 11. I'd be very happy with becton, wills, jeudy or ruggs.

7 guys, we pick 11. One of these guys should be available. Draft anyone other than these guys and I lead the million fan march on jets headquarters.

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18 hours ago, New York Mick said:

3rd, 4th, 5th. I was just putting a number on it. It changes every year. That might not one OT worth a top pick (or any position that’s needed) so you take the next most important position available if there’s a top guy available if not then go to the next position etc. 

Outside of QB. You take chances on QBs 

No one doubts a standout center is better to draft than a meh or bust player at a higher value position. Since there's no clear study showing centers are less likely to bust than other positions, then the next most important position available (as you put it) is the highest value prospect at a position of need. Not merely someone filling a current hole, since some holes are far easier to fill later in the draft than others. One never needs to draft a center at #11 to fill that hole adequately enough to field a winner. Never. 

I don't see where the leap is made where it's a sound argument that there might not be one OT worth a top pick, but there might be at OC. And while there's often a world of difference between the 3rd and 5th tackle taken, it's also entirely possible - and often is exactly the case - that there are 5 players at one position (like OT) who end up being better and/or more valuable pros than anybody at some other position. So it could very well be that there are both 5 OTs and 5 WRs more valuable than any single center in this draft, even in instances where the center is objectively the better player. 

The part I bolded is the crux of it. A center is not going to be among the next most important positions available until we're down to our last 1-2 holes to fill, and even then it's still probably a poor choice because someone else's contract is coming up a year later who's at a position that (in today's cap dollars) will cost $22MM to retain, and the pick should be more valuable than just the upcoming single season's need. But also because (chart value notwithstanding) you can trade down from #11 and still get any center you want.

Center is nowhere near that high level priority. The difference between a good center and a great one is more like it's nice to have but isn't going to transform the offense. However (with QB off the table as a pick) the difference between a great WR and an ok one - or an above-average LT and the type typically available in FA or later in the draft - has that level significance. This just isn't the case at center, where it's unusual for any center prospect to be good value (other than looking in hindsight to place a good/great one ahead of a player who ended up being a walking injury report or outright bust).

 

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With one C speculated to go at the end of round 1 the only place you will see a C mocked at 11 is on these boards. Not even close to a prudent pick at 11.

The opportunity cost of that pick would be mind numbing. I lean towards one of the top three tackles .... Avoiding Becton completely. If they are gone take one of the top three wide outs.

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On 2/28/2020 at 2:15 PM, T0mShane said:

Last year was more like a “come on, bro” moment 

Last year was one of the worst drafts to watch, like when idzik drafted Dee Milner to replace Revis (little chance of success from day one) and it got worse with each round to the point where you had a hard time saying the team improved with the draft - Mac replaced Leo and rolled the dice, the Jets have had plenty of draft busts but usually there is hope until camp this one was bad from the start, players were injured already...

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9 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Nah, and I don't even know who more than half these guys are anyway.

I'm saying I'd trade down to #25 and pick up another (presumed lower) 1st rounder next year before I'd take a friggin' center at #11 this year. 

If Jeudy and Lamb are sitting there when we pick, we could very well have the possibility to move down in the draft, pick up extra draft capital either this year or next, and still pick a guy like Austin Jackson, Josh Jones, Trey Adams

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6 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

If Jeudy and Lamb are sitting there when we pick, we could very well have the possibility to move down in the draft, pick up extra draft capital either this year or next, and still pick a guy like Austin Jackson, Josh Jones, Trey Adams

Trey Adams? He looked about 50 years old the other day, we could get him as UDFA.

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