McShays Latest Mock

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

i think this all depends on price tag, everything i've heard is they ideally want to keep him and add another wr in the first 3 rounds.  

but this all centers around the money available after hunting for combinations of conklin, thuney, vaitai, fant, and the corner market of bradbury and mills.   anderson may be priced out by the needs at other spots and the ability to draft very quality WR's through out the first 3 rounds of this draft. 

From what i've heard (and im not the end all be all of information, i just happen to get some good nuggets). the jets would ideally like to address the WR position on day 2/3 of the draft (all suspect to change based on FA shakeout). 

and this really does make sense, since good OTs are hard to get.  i do see scenarios where they look to trade back and take a tackle in the 15-16 range if they have a few graded out there.  i think there's more fluidity in the OT grading than we think, that guys like josh jones may be closer to a guy like thomas than we all realize.

[pdxgreen]

Man.  If Herbert goes to the Colts I will be doing cartwheels... or at least jumping as pitifully as I can.

[varjet]

If you look at the NFL.com grade of Thomas it is not that great for the 11th pick.  

He is not the athlete of the other 3 OTs, one of which may be a guard anyway (Wills).  

Reminds me of Cam Robinson who fell to the top of the 2nd round and ended up being pretty good.

Andrew Thomas will have a good NFL career, but my guess is that at 11 there will better athletes at WR and CB.  

I can see FA and the draft falling like this:

Sign a T or two, and maybe Thuney. 

WR in round 1

C in round 2, like Cushenberry.  

WR and BPA in round 3.  At least one very good WR in this draft will fall to round 3. 

[pdxgreen]

1.  Sign Thuney

2.  Draft Wirfs

3.  Profit

[Chrebetfan80]

10 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

I've been on Vaitai for a while now.  I think signing him in FA is potentially the key to our offseason and immediately gives flexibility to the Draft.  He's not a Tier 1 LT....but he's better, bigger, faster and younger than Beachum.  It would be an upgrade and Beachum has been decent for us when healthy.

Sign Vaitai for LT, sign an OG (Glasgow, Thuney, etc.), bring back Alex Lewis at the other OG spot.  Pencil in Harrison again at Center (who performed okay over the second half of the year and would look better with upgraded OGs on either side of him).  I'd try to sign a Tier 2 RT in FA to compete with Edoga.  That becomes an average/respectable OL prior to the Draft.  We go into the Draft looking for RT and Center/OG....but without needing to use the Round 1 pick on either.  If OTs go quick (Top 10) then get a WR and take a RT guy in Round 2.

 

Thing about Vaitai that fits is coming out of TCU (and most spread/air raid teams in college) he has a lot of experience using wider splits along the offensive line.  If that nugget is truly where gase is going with the offensive lineman that will be a big clue to which players they would be looking to target.  When you use larger splits on the offensive line it goes without saying athleticism and playing in space becomes a much more integral part of the linemans repertoire.  

[Jethead]

Thomas would be my preferred OT choice. I've watched just about every UGA game the past two years and he definitely looks the part against the toughest competition. Wills was my 2nd favorite for similar reasons. I'm afraid that Wirfs and Becton are combine wonders, especially Becton.

If we sign Vitai, +/or another OL target in free agency, I would far rather we took our top WR choice over OT # 4 or 5. There are some big time OT prospects we could choose in the 2nd round where the risk/reward is much better like Wilson or Charles who both have some great SEC tape.

[HawkeyeJet]

1 hour ago, section314 said:

If that's the case, maybe he knows JD not a Thomas fan?

Or he knows that's what Douglas wants people to think.

[Raideraholic]

1 hour ago, Augustiniak said:

i also think that the raiders are going to trade to 9 or 10, ahead of the jets, to get the wr they want - probably jeudy.  

Raiders aren’t trading up for any Wr in the first.   They most likely are trading pick number 19 to move back.      There is a good chance Wr isn’t even their first pick at 12.( Kenneth Murray).

[varjet]

1 minute ago, Raideraholic said:

Raiders aren’t trading up for any Wr in the first.   They most likely are trading pick number 19 to move back.      There is a good chance Wr isn’t even their first pick at 12.( Kenneth Murray).

Let them have 11 and we can draft Josh Jones. 

[ChuckkieB]

I'm gonna bang this drum until draft day - 2 OL and 2 WR in the first 3 rounds. 

I would be ecstatic if Jeudy is the pick at 11.

[Warfish]

Getting an elite WR prospect is good, no question.

It won't help if we have the 2019 type O-Line again in 2020.

The Line will not be rebuilt with cast-off FA's.  The best O-linemen will never hit the market.  Only the dregs and broke downs will.

The Dradt is where the line must be rebuilt.  Having the top 3 taken before is would be horrible, but we do not control that.  If it happens, and we take a WR, fine.  Not ideal, but fine.

It then requires a heavy investment in 2nd tier prospects in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th.  The lower chance of success means more investment in those positions to get the same likelihood of success.

There will be good WR's in those upper-middle rounds.  I hope this mock is wrong, and we land an elite O-line prospect in Round 1.  I'm confident we can still get both a #1 and #2 WR in later rounds.

[rangerous]

1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

It's an interesting Mock.  I just read the whole thing.

The first 7 picks include 0 Offensive Tackles.  He then has AZ, JAX and CLE taking 3 straight (Becton, Wirfs and Wills) leaving the Jets with a choice of any WR or Andrew Thomas.  Jeudy and Lamb go back-to-back at 11 and 12.  Thomas doesn't go until.....wait for it......29th!  He has the Titans taking him.

I think we all need to understand what may be happening with Thomas and whether he's really the prospect that he was thought to be prior to his 2019 college season.  He was a consensus Top 5 pick heading into the college season last Summer but by many accounts he's now not even one of the Top 4 OTs.  McShay has OT Josh Jones taken ahead of him at 26 by Miami.  (Read that one again).  Miami at #26 could have taken Andrew Thomas and passed in Todd's mock draft here.

We need more info on Thomas.

hmmm....if the titans are taking thomas does that mean conklin is going to be a jet?

[Sammybighead]

I'm sorry, maybe I missed something. What has thomas done/not done to hurt his stock this much? He have a gas mask pic circulating?

If he's there at 11, I'm sprinting to the podium to take him

[rangerous]

i'd be good with a top wr at 11.  my only concern is the guy would need to start from day 1.  then they can use their 2nd and a third on oline.  and if they manage to sign one or more top oline free agents then that's all the better.

[HighPitch]

2 hours ago, choon328 said:

I normally wouldn't put much into these mock drafts but Mcshay and Joe Douglas are best friends and former college roommates.  I for sure am going to be following McShays mock drafts a little more than usual.  He has the Jets taking Jeudy after 3 OT's (Becton, Wirfs, Wills) go right before them.

Yea like hes gonna know those 3 will go right before!

[Ohhthepain]

2 hours ago, section314 said:

If that's the case, maybe he knows JD not a Thomas fan?

Or maybe he knows JD loves Thomas and is trying to hurt his draft stock to ensure he'll be there at 11. Just doin his bro a solid.

[HighPitch]

2 hours ago, choon328 said:

I have a feeling, and its just a feeling, that Mcshay may know more about the Jets FA plans and who they're going to go after than we know.  His mock could lead you to believe he thinks the Jets will acquire two tackles prior to the draft like Vaitai and Conklin which would take the Jets out of the tackle market. 

How the heck would he know what these two tackles plan on doing?

[jetstream23]

28 minutes ago, rangerous said:

hmmm....if the titans are taking thomas does that mean conklin is going to be a jet?

[GREENBEAN]

[/url] I normally wouldn't put much into these mock drafts but Mcshay and Joe Douglas are best friends and former college roommates.  I for sure am going to be following McShays mock drafts a little more than usual.  He has the Jets taking Jeudy after 3 OT's (Becton, Wirfs, Wills) go right before them.

He also didn’t mention Andrew Thomas in a 20 min conversation about OT prospects. Mcshay may know joe Douglas but he’s way off here.


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[PepPep]

14 minutes ago, section314 said:

If that's the case, maybe he knows JD not a Thomas fan?

JD can do what JD does and he will have to live with the results but if he passes on Thomas for Jeudy I will be disappointed. The opportunity to draft a legitimate Franchise LT prospect do not come around very often. These guys never hit the open market and the rare occasions that they do, boy do you have to overpay to land one. 

In a deep WR draft like this one, it just makes no sense for JD to be targeting Jeudy over Thomas or one of the OTs. 

Maybe, since these guys are buds, this is a smokescreen to make a team who's in love with Jeudy trade up ahead of the Jets, allowing an OT to slide to them at 11?  

[CanadienJetsFan]

Trade down!

[PepPep]

57 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Getting an elite WR prospect is good, no question.

It won't help if we have the 2019 type O-Line again in 2020.

The Line will not be rebuilt with cast-off FA's.  The best O-linemen will never hit the market.  Only the dregs and broke downs will.

The Dradt is where the line must be rebuilt.  Having the top 3 taken before is would be horrible, but we do not control that.  If it happens, and we take a WR, fine.  Not ideal, but fine.

It then requires a heavy investment in 2nd tier prospects in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th.  The lower chance of success means more investment in those positions to get the same likelihood of success.

There will be good WR's in those upper-middle rounds.  I hope this mock is wrong, and we land an elite O-line prospect in Round 1.  I'm confident we can still get both a #1 and #2 WR in later rounds.

I agree. But I'm also not sure why people are so against the Jets taking the 4th OT. To me, if the top 3 are gone, I still seriously consider taking the 4th OT and NOT Jeudy or Lamb. To me, that 4th OT right now is Becton. I know A.Thomas has slipped on a lot of peoples boards. But Becton is still the wild card, the rawest, most boom or bust prospect who I believe teams will shy away from, taking Thomas, Wills and Wirfs instead. 

I have no issue taking Becton at 11. I have no issue taking Wills, Wirfs or Thomas at 11 either. These all look like absolute studs to me, even if they end up playing RT or OG once all is said and done. We need talented young O-linemen to protect Darnold and develop a running game. FA won't fix that completely. If Wirfs or Wills turn into the next Larry Allen, will I regret taking an OG with the 11th pick? Heck no.        

[New York Mick]

If the Jets can walk away from the first day of the draft with the number one receiver or OG/OC or a top OT I’ll be happy. 

[#27TheDominator]

3 hours ago, Wonderboy said:

Bellamy won’t be resigned. And JD will grab 2 WR’s in this draft. He has to. There’s just to much value at the position and we Desperately need quality WR’s for Sam. 

Bellamy is already signed.  He signed a 2 year deal.  They have him for $2.25M.  People are all planning to cut him so they can add Amari Cooper, Scherff and Conklin, but I wouldn't be so sure.

[Warfish]

29 minutes ago, PepPep said:

I agree. But I'm also not sure why people are so against the Jets taking the 4th OT. To me, if the top 3 are gone, I still seriously consider taking the 4th OT and NOT Jeudy or Lamb. To me, that 4th OT right now is Becton. I know A.Thomas has slipped on a lot of peoples boards. But Becton is still the wild card, the rawest, most boom or bust prospect who I believe teams will shy away from, taking Thomas, Wills and Wirfs instead. 

I have no issue taking Becton at 11. I have no issue taking Wills, Wirfs or Thomas at 11 either. These all look like absolute studs to me, even if they end up playing RT or OG once all is said and done. We need talented young O-linemen to protect Darnold and develop a running game. FA won't fix that completely. If Wirfs or Wills turn into the next Larry Allen, will I regret taking an OG with the 11th pick? Heck no.        

I getcha Pep.

I'm trying to keep a somewhat open mind.

Like others have said, and I've said previously, I want to walk out of the 4th round having at least two new start-quality O-line prospects and two new starter quality WR prospects.  The specific order they get picked, sure, I have opinions, but end of the day if we're lining up a Top pick at OT and C and WR#1 and WR#2 (for example) on opening day 2020, I'll be happy.  They'll have to do well to keep me happy, of course, lol.  But still.

[choon328]

1 hour ago, HighPitch said:

Yea like hes gonna know those 3 will go right before!

He wouldn't.  But he may know how Douglas grades the tackles and WR's in this class. 

[choon328]

1 hour ago, HighPitch said:

How the heck would he know what these two tackles plan on doing?

He may know how aggressive the Jets will be in FA trying to obtain 2 tackles based on his relationship with Douglas. 

[jetspenguin]

3 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

I think we all need to understand what may be happening with Hackenberg and whether he's really the prospect that he was thought to be prior to his 2013 college season.  He was a consensus Top 5 pick heading into the college season last Summer but by many accounts he's now not even one of the Top 4 QBs.  McShay has 2 other QB's taken ahead of in round 1 by the Jets.  (Read that one again).   

We needed more info on Hackenberg.

this sounds earily familiar....

[Augustiniak]

16 minutes ago, choon328 said:

He wouldn't.  But he may know how Douglas grades the tackles and WR's in this class. 

mcshay could have very good insights into the types of players douglas values, so yeah, i could see mcshay using this info for the jets.  if he assumes the jets will address RT in FA and keep beachum, this pick does have validity.

[jetstream23]

Just now, jetspenguin said:

this sounds earily familiar....

Yup.  Andrew Thomas has been "the name" out there for OTs for a year.  But is the performance and projection really there?

I'm concerned that not just McShay has him lower, but several others do as well.

 

[nycdan]

Just to inject a little gloom into this discussion about the great OL in this draft.  I present to you the top of the 2013 draft:

Notice six (6!) OL taken in the top-11 picks.  Which is insane compared to any other season before or since that I can remember.

The warning here is just how bad this group was.  Joeckel sucked.  Cooper and Warmack were supposed to be "can't-miss" guards.  Both busted.  Fluker was a bust.  Fisher was pretty solid and only Lane Johnson lived up to the pick.  What really shocked me was how bad Cooper and Warmack turned out to be.  Frankly, this was a pretty awful draft class overall.

But the point I make is that these 'core-four' OL at the top of the draft are not interchangable and probably at least half of them will not turn out to be very good.  So if Douglas feels strongly about one or two of them being much better picks, then he should absolutely go up a few slots and get one if need be.  Yeah, we need picks.  Message heard loud and clear.  But we need a great Offensive Line more than we need a second 3rd round pick.  If your choice is Lane Johnson, or DJ Fluker and a 3rd round pick, which way are you leaning?

  

[section314]

11 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Just to inject a little gloom onto this discussion about the great OL in this draft.  I present to you the top of the 2013 draft:

Notice six (6!) OL taken in the top-11 picks.  Which is insane compared to any other season before or since that I can remember.

The warning here is just how bad this group was.  Joeckel sucked.  Cooper and Warmack were supposed to be "can't-miss" guards.  Both busted.  Fluker was a bust.  Fisher was pretty solid and only Lane Johnson lived up to the pick.  What really shocked me was how badly Cooper and Warmack turned out to be.  Frankly, this was a pretty awful draft class overall.

But the point I make is that these 'core-four' OL at the top of the draft are not interchangable and probably at least half of them will not turn out to be very good.  So if Douglas feels strongly about one or two of them being much better picks, then he should absolutely go up a few slots and get one if need be.  Yeah, we need picks.  Message heard loud and clear.  But we need a great Offensive Line more than we need a second 3rd round pick.  If your choice is Lane Johnson, or DJ Fluker and a 3rd round pick, which way are you leaning?

  

Man, that was one Shi**y draft at the top.?Good Lord.

[Wonderboy]

54 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Bellamy is already signed.  He signed a 2 year deal.  They have him for $2.25M.  People are all planning to cut him so they can add Amari Cooper, Scherff and Conklin, but I wouldn't be so sure.

Can’t they cut him though and save cap money? I was under that impression.

[THE BARON]

4 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

i think the crazy thing about his mock is he has andrew thomas going 29.  if that's closer to what his grade is, the jets could well be taking a wr in the first rather than reaching for a tackle but that would sure put a lot of pressure on them to fix the OL, especially if they didn't land conklin.

They have the most polished LT going at 29 well after a player like Beckton ??? This is laughable.

[THE BARON]

2 hours ago, Ohhthepain said:

Or maybe he knows JD loves Thomas and is trying to hurt his draft stock to ensure he'll be there at 11. Just doin his bro a solid.

Would not surprise me...