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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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26 minutes ago, CTM said:

$104,857,600*

Absolutely correct.  Much obliged.

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then there's this:

Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) seems to think that if given the choice, Americans 70 and over would be willing to risk getting coronavirus and possibly dying if it means stores re-open and the economy rebounds.

On Fox News Monday night, Patrick lamented not being asked how he would balance protecting some of the people most at-risk for contracting coronavirus — adults 65 and over — while keeping businesses up and running. "No one reached out to me and said, as a senior citizen, are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren?" he said. "If that's the exchange, I'm all in."

**

I can see it now..  "Hey Mom and Dad, I think you guys should just go to the beach and risk it so I can go to Best Buy this weekend".

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Put another way, at the death number presently at 582 and doubling every 3 days, everyone in the country will be dead by May 8.

With luck, the death rate may slow down a bit by then.

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7 hours ago, Pac said:

then there's this:

Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) seems to think that if given the choice, Americans 70 and over would be willing to risk getting coronavirus and possibly dying if it means stores re-open and the economy rebounds.

On Fox News Monday night, Patrick lamented not being asked how he would balance protecting some of the people most at-risk for contracting coronavirus — adults 65 and over — while keeping businesses up and running. "No one reached out to me and said, as a senior citizen, are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren?" he said. "If that's the exchange, I'm all in."

**

I can see it now..  "Hey Mom and Dad, I think you guys should just go to the beach and risk it so I can go to Best Buy this weekend".

How do you say “discretionary buying” in Castilian? Because here’s a glimpse of our proud future.

 

Madrid to Use Ice Rink as Morgue for Coronavirus Victims

March 23, 2020
MADRID (REUTERS) - A Madrid ice rink is to be used as a makeshift morgue for coronavirus victims, as the number of cases in the capital rose to 10,575 and 1,263 deaths, city authorities said on Monday.

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2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

How do you say “discretionary buying” in Castilian? Because here’s a glimpse of our proud future.

 

 

 

Disney on Ice have gone too far.

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8 hours ago, kelticwizard said:

Put another way, at the death number presently at 582 and doubling every 3 days, everyone in the country will be dead by May 8.

With luck, the death rate may slow down a bit by then.

How long before this whole thing gets blamed on Adam Gase?

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Striking closer to home for us. 

My wife has a good friend who was admitted to the hospital late last night.  He's 72 and had 5 days of fluctuating fever (varied from 99.5-103).  He lives alone but his  son lives nearby.  He has a history of seasonal allergies and sinusitis, so the doctor was conservative and made him take antibiotics for 4-5 days.  He just had bypass surgery in January.  So he is vulnerable.  Not sure how long until the test result is in, but he will stay at the hospital for a bit.  

From what we can tell, (because she is having trouble remembering the last day she saw him, I had to go through our credit card statements to see exactly what day she was with him) it was exactly 2 weeks ago on 3/10 that they drove to Jerry's Art (they are artists) in West Orange, a 32 mile drive and had lunch that day.  2 weeks.  Isn't that the "incubation" period or is it longer?   Geez.  How many days until I can feel a little more at ease about this?  I hope he gets well taken care of at Newton Memortial Hospital (one of the Atlantic Health hospitals).  Worried for him.  

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20 hours ago, playtowinthegame said:

After this pandemic is over (whenever that is) I hope it's possible to not be so dependent on China for our drugs and medical supplies.

AMEN!  Whoever the next president is, he MUST retool USA to manufacture necessities.  Even though it costs more here.

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9 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

That's exactly right.  Those numbers jive with what I've seen and heard.

But it also puts in perspective that the knuckleheads who were still crowding bars and running around Manhattan one week ago as the social distancing idea was really starting to be pushed hard are just now getting symptoms, will be feeling sick this week and then, if their immune systems don't react well, end up in the hospital towards the end of this week and next week.  I think our hospitalization peak will be in the April 15-25th timeframe.

I mean at that time de Blasio and Cuoma were refusing to shut down NYC schools and had only just agreed to close Broadway. Signals from local and national leaders weren't nearly as strong yet.

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A NY Doctor shared with Hannity his Hydroxy Chloroquine/Azithromycin results.
200mg 2x daily Hydroxy Chloroquine 
500mg 1x daily Azithromycin 
220mg 1x daily Zinc sulfate

350 patients 
• Breathing restored 3-4 hours
• Zero deaths
• Zero hospitalizations 
• Zero intubations

Chloroquine is an ingredient is fish tank/pond cleaner, people are buying it like crazy now. A healthy couple in AZ drank it. He died, she got really sick, don't be an idiot.

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6 minutes ago, BROOKLYN JET said:

A NY Doctor shared with Hannity his Hydroxy Chloroquine/Azithromycin results.
200mg 2x daily Hydroxy Chloroquine 
500mg 1x daily Azithromycin 
220mg 1x daily Zinc sulfate

350 patients 
• Breathing restored 3-4 hours
• Zero deaths
• Zero hospitalizations 
• Zero intubations

Chloroquine is an ingredient is fish tank/pond cleaner, people are buying it like crazy now. A healthy couple in AZ drank it. He died, she got really sick, don't be an idiot.

Exactly why folks can't go off half cocked.  Max, is that last part okay for me to write?

Forget the politicians and conspiracy theorists.  Let the doctors and scientists do their research. They are all on this 24/7.  Plus, the entity which identifies the cure is likely to make a bundle.

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9 hours ago, Pac said:

then there's this:

Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) seems to think that if given the choice, Americans 70 and over would be willing to risk getting coronavirus and possibly dying if it means stores re-open and the economy rebounds.

On Fox News Monday night, Patrick lamented not being asked how he would balance protecting some of the people most at-risk for contracting coronavirus — adults 65 and over — while keeping businesses up and running. "No one reached out to me and said, as a senior citizen, are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren?" he said. "If that's the exchange, I'm all in."

**

I can see it now..  "Hey Mom and Dad, I think you guys should just go to the beach and risk it so I can go to Best Buy this weekend".

file.php?40,file=256556,filename=expendables-2-sniper-headshot.gif

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32 minutes ago, BROOKLYN JET said:

A NY Doctor shared with Hannity his Hydroxy Chloroquine/Azithromycin results.
200mg 2x daily Hydroxy Chloroquine 
500mg 1x daily Azithromycin 
220mg 1x daily Zinc sulfate

350 patients 
• Breathing restored 3-4 hours
• Zero deaths
• Zero hospitalizations 
• Zero intubations

Chloroquine is an ingredient is fish tank/pond cleaner, people are buying it like crazy now. A healthy couple in AZ drank it. He died, she got really sick, don't be an idiot.

Hopefully its true but Hannity isn't exactly a reliable source

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55 minutes ago, CTM said:

Hopefully its true but Hannity isn't exactly a reliable source

Like 11 days ago wasnt hannity on the hoax bandwaggon?

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32 minutes ago, Pac said:

Like 11 days ago wasnt hannity was on the hoax bandwaggon?

Isn't he still, essentially?

If this cheap available drug cures it. This is a non issue. If spring warmth stops it in it's tracks. non issue (in terms of long term global consequences)

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2 minutes ago, CTM said:

Isn't he still, essentially?

If this cheap available drug cures it. This is a non issue. If spring warmth stops it in it's tracks. non issue

The doctor that was quoted is sketchy. He had been cited for making some bogus claims on another topic recently.

But, there is some anecdotal evidence occurring. Hopefully it shows some promise.

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1 minute ago, Scott Dierking said:

The doctor that was quoted is sketchy. He had been cited for making some bogus claims on another topic recently.

But, there is some anecdotal evidence occurring. Hopefully it shows some promise.

Thats my take away more or less

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We will be going back to work, just not business as usual sooner rather than later, maybe not entirely in the tri state................

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2 hours ago, munchmemory said:

Exactly why folks can't go off half cocked.  Max, is that last part okay for me to write?

Forget the politicians and conspiracy theorists.  Let the doctors and scientists do their research. They are all on this 24/7.  Plus, the entity which identifies the cure is likely to make a bundle.

Crusher prefers that we only go full-cocked.

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1 hour ago, Apache 51 said:

We will be going back to work, just not business as usual sooner rather than later, maybe not entirely in the tri state................

It would not be smart for everyone all of a sudden to just go back to "normal".  That's how you get another run of cases going.

People I trust in the medical community have been saying they expect the "peak" of this thing to be somewhere in the Apr 18-24 range.  If we want to kick this thing properly, no one should be going back to "business as usual" until May, the earliest.  

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12 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

 I think our hospitalization peak will be in the April 15-25th timeframe.

Exactly what I've been hearing/reading as well.  

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9 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It would not be smart for everyone all of a sudden to just go back to "normal".  That's how you get another run of cases going.

People I trust in the medical community have been saying they expect the "peak" of this thing to be somewhere in the Apr 18-24 range.  If we want to kick this thing properly, no one should be going back to "business as usual" until May, the earliest.  

What do you mean by peak? Italy implemented widespread lockdown on May 9th and seems to have peaked from a growth of new sirius illness perspective about 2 weeks later. NYC closed schools about a week later, so their growth should peak next week.

Total will take a bit to wind down as there are still more new patients coming in than recovering patients

Without a seasonal impact or therapy there is no business as usual until we get significant levels of herd immunity.

At some point we need to move from widespread interdiction vs targeted interdiction, SK has and we should as well.  Nothing stopping us from putting restrictions back in place if this starts to spike again

 

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Just now, CTM said:

What do you mean by peak? Italy implemented widespread lockdown on May 9th and seems to have peaked from a growth of new sirius illness perspective about 2 weeks later. NYC closed schools about a week later, so their growth should peak next week.

Total will take a bit to wind down as there are still more new patients coming in than recovering patients

Without a seasonal impact or therapy there is no business as usual until we get significant levels of herd immunity.

At some point we need to move from widespread interdiction vs targeted interdiction, SK has and we should as well.  Nothing stopping us from putting restrictions back in place if this starts to spike again

 

 

Peak as in hospitalizations.  

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43 minutes ago, Maxman said:

Crusher prefers that we only go full-cocked.

Mmmmmmm....you sweet talkin' man.

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9 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Peak as in hospitalizations.  

Got it, and acknowledged in my post. Knowing it takes 12-14 days on avg post  catching this to wind up in hospital I'm not sure we have to wait till post peak to start lifting restrictions as long as we are smart about how and what we do

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31 minutes ago, CTM said:

What do you mean by peak? Italy implemented widespread lockdown on May 9th and seems to have peaked from a growth of new sirius illness perspective about 2 weeks later. NYC closed schools about a week later, so their growth should peak next week.

Total will take a bit to wind down as there are still more new patients coming in than recovering patients

Without a seasonal impact or therapy there is no business as usual until we get significant levels of herd immunity.

At some point we need to move from widespread interdiction vs targeted interdiction, SK has and we should as well.  Nothing stopping us from putting restrictions back in place if this starts to spike again

 

Has Italy released their numbers for today yet? Need to see them start stringing together consecutive days of fewer cases/hospitalizations/deaths but yesterday was good news.

I also hesitate in comparing us to South Korea, where they were much more prepared for this and were aggressively testing from the jump. We need to take the same early measures SK did in other areas of the country that have not started to see exponential growth yet, but I'm not sure we have the capacity to do that. We're probably going to be looking at a situation where we have to sacrifice accurate data in places like NY if we want to take SK-like measures in other states.

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There is still a major problem with folks getting tested.  I live in Bergen and this is eye-opening.

For the second day in a row, the coronavirus testing site at Bergen Community College hit capacity more than a half hour before it was scheduled to open Tuesday, authorities said.

Minutes before 7:30 a.m., Paramus Police posted on Twitterthat the first state-run testing site for COVID-19 had hit capacity and would not be accepting anymore patients, more than a half hour before the site’s scheduled 8 a.m. opening. The police department told anyone who had managed to get in line to stay there, unless told otherwise.

This is the fifth straight day that the Paramus testing site has reached capacity long before the site’s scheduled 4 p.m. closing. On Friday, when the site opened, the center reached capacity by noon, with 654 tests being administered by the end of the day, according to health officials.

As people line up earlier and earlier for the chance to get tested, the site is hitting capacity at an earlier time. State officials have said the plan is to administer 350 tests each day and that there are 2,500 tests available weekly.

Weeks into the coronavirus pandemic, Bergen county remains far and away the county most heavily affected by the virus, with 609 cases as of Tuesday morning, according to state health officials.

On Monday, the second state-run coronavirus testing site at the PNC Bank Arts Center, in Holmdel, hit capacity within a half-hour of opening, with lines reaching back to the Garden State Parkway.

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/03/coronavirus-testing-site-at-bergen-hits-capacity-before-opening-again.html

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11 minutes ago, jvill 51 said:

 

I also hesitate in comparing us to South Korea, where they were much more prepared for this and were aggressively testing from the jump. 

Sound familiar?

 

How South Korea Lost Control of Its Coronavirus Outbreak

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/how-south-korea-lost-control-of-its-coronavirus-outbreak

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1 minute ago, jvill 51 said:

Has Italy released their numbers for today yet? Need to see them start stringing together consecutive days of fewer cases/hospitalizations/deaths but yesterday was good news.

 

No todays not out, another few hours if following suit, however from a growth perspective they have slowed down a lot post restrictions. Based on China and SK, there is no reason to think that will change even if we get spikes here or there. (unless they have a policy or adherence to policy change). 

Looking at daily totals doesn't really tell the story, the concern has been about exponential growth, exponential growth is where the numbers get really scary and most of the really scary stuff happens in the last few weeks. (obviously not trivializing this on an individual level, speaking in aggregate)

I have been tracking the below.  The last column is a dumb 3 day moving average of incremental increase %. On 3/9 (the day restrictions went in place) Italy was growing at roughly 26% a day, which conveniently is the % needed to maintain a 3 day double. (which is the orange line on the log graph from 2/22 to present). The blue line is what's actually happened thus far, they were greatly exceeding a 3 day double rate earlier and now have greatly reduced. Today's numbers might spike a bit but the trend is pretty clear at this point that growth is slowing down significantly

 

image.thumb.png.069c7e3dfca3e43e4deb59ae4aedbd39.png

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19 minutes ago, jvill 51 said:

I also hesitate in comparing us to South Korea, where they were much more prepared for this and were aggressively testing from the jump. We need to take the same early measures SK did in other areas of the country that have not started to see exponential growth yet, but I'm not sure we have the capacity to do that. We're probably going to be looking at a situation where we have to sacrifice accurate data in places like NY if we want to take SK-like measures in other states.

100% we are ramping testing and protective gear and will be much better prepared to manage in a targeted sense. I think we did what needed to be done given our lack of preparedness, but it's as sophisticated right now as treating testicular cancer with full body radiation.

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6 minutes ago, CTM said:

No todays not out, another few hours if following suit, however from a growth perspective they have slowed down a lot post restrictions. Based on China and SK, there is no reason to think that will change even if we get spikes here or there. (unless they have a policy or adherence to policy change). 

Looking at daily totals doesn't really tell the story, the concern has been about exponential growth, exponential growth is where the numbers get really scary and most of the really scary stuff happens in the last few weeks. (obviously not trivializing this on an individual level, speaking in aggregate)

I have been tracking the below.  The last column is a dumb 3 day moving average of incremental increase %. On 3/9 (the day restrictions went in place) Italy was growing at roughly 26% a day, which conveniently is the % needed to maintain a 3 day double. (which is the orange line on the log graph from 2/22 to present). The blue line is what's actually happened thus far, they were greatly exceeding a 3 day double rate earlier and now have greatly reduced. Today's numbers might spike a bit but the trend is pretty clear at this point that growth is slowing down significantly

 

image.thumb.png.069c7e3dfca3e43e4deb59ae4aedbd39.png

The chart looks like a down and out .

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In a weird decision, the University of Liberty has decided to re-open classes on campus.

Liberty is an odd place because of:

-Jerry Falwell

-It is a remote spot in Virginia

Liberty University welcomed its students back to campus this week, despite explicit social distancing guidelines from both the White House and the state of Virginia amid the coronavirus outbreak.

University President Jerry Falwell Jr., a longtime supporter of President Trump, said in a statement on Monday that he had been in conversation with the Council of Independent Colleges in Virginia to determine how to allow students who wanted to return to the evangelical college's Lynchburg campus to do so while still following the guidelines that have been put forward.

“I was on a conference call with other college presidents and representatives from private colleges, and we listened to what other schools were doing," Falwell said. "Many were throwing their hands up and saying they would just close and others were going to extend their breaks. At that time, we were on Spring Break, so we had time to work on it."

He added: “Our thinking was, ‘Let's get them back as soon as we can — the ones who want to come back.”

Multiple universities, school districts and in some cases entire states — including Virginia — have canceled classes for the rest of the academic year in the face of the pandemic.

Falwell told the Richmond Times-Dispatch that somewhere between several hundred to more than 5,000 students were expected to be living in Liberty's dorms as classes resumed Monday.

“I think we have a responsibility to our students — who paid to be here, who want to be here, who love it here — to give them the ability to be with their friends, to continue their studies, enjoy the room and board they’ve already paid for and to not interrupt their college life,” he said.

Despite the fact that almost all of Liberty's classes have been moved online, staff and faculty are still expected to come to work as usual.

Falwell noted that the dining halls are operating in a takeout-only capacity and that special classes that need to meet in person, such as labs, will adhere to Gov. Ralph Northam's (D) 10-person gathering limit.Falwell has given voice to conspiracy theories about the coronavirus. Earlier in the month while on Fox News he said, "You remember the North Korean leader promised us a Christmas present for America? Back in December. Could it be they got together with China and this is that present? I don’t know. But it really is something strange going on."

He told the Times-Dispatch that the university was protecting the students by having them on campus.

“I think we, in a way, are protecting the students by having them on campus together,” he said. “Ninety-nine percent of them are not at the age to be at risk and they don’t have conditions that put them at risk.”

Virginia has more than 200 confirmed cases of COVID-19, and Northam on Monday ordered all nonessential businesses to close by the start of Wednesday, though it is unclear how this mandate will affect the college.

While the Lynchburg campus is open to students, faculty, staff, prospective students and their family members, it is closed to other visitors.

The decision to have students on campus makes Liberty an outlier among universities around the country. Most schools have lengthened their spring breaks, moved learning online and instructed their students to return home.

The Hill reached out to Liberty but was referred to the university's prior statements.

 

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5 hours ago, Dcat said:

Striking closer to home for us. 

My wife has a good friend who was admitted to the hospital late last night.  He's 72 and had 5 days of fluctuating fever (varied from 99.5-103).  He lives alone but his  son lives nearby.  He has a history of seasonal allergies and sinusitis, so the doctor was conservative and made him take antibiotics for 4-5 days.  He just had bypass surgery in January.  So he is vulnerable.  Not sure how long until the test result is in, but he will stay at the hospital for a bit.  

follow up: Admitted to Newton Mem. Hosp., part of Atlantic Care system.    Very few cases (there may be only one or two) at Newton Hosp.  (Morristown Hosp has 5 right now.)    He has pneumonia.  Adminstered Covid Test but won't be back for some time and the Infectious disease Doc has offered him the choice to use the anti-Malaria drug there.  My wife and I are telling him to do so but he is talking to his germ-a-phobe son (who I don't know.)  

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