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Prediction: All major sporting events will be cancelled in 2020 (Update. MLB, NHL, NASCAR suspending, MLS, NCAA, XFL, Masters cancelled).


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For sure, but if warm weather doesn't slow this down most of us are going to get this and at this point based on updated mortality projections it looks basically like a bad flu. Obviously it's evolving as more data comes in.
There's also a huge cost to the panic and lost economic activity
Bad flu ??? Dude ... Flu mortality rate is .1 %.... This is far worse in those terms

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2 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

At least people care about their own asses ... This is the toilet paper isle in the 3rd store I visited

 

 

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When I was a broke college student in San Francisco I used to use wadded up pages of The Guardian.  Sort of physical manifestation of what I thought of the publication  itself.

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1 hour ago, choon328 said:

The attending physician of Congress stated that 70-150 million people will contract coronavirus before it's all said and done. That's not media hyperbole. 

This is the kind of scare-mongering that;s pissing me off. He is just guessing. If he wasn't there wouldn't be such an outrageous disparity in his numbers,

t

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43 minutes ago, Butterfield said:

I don’t disagree that the media never helps, but neither do gross generalizations.  This is nothing like the flu.  

Coronavirus is related to Sars. That should be the comparison we should be making as it's the most accurate (and I remember the Sars scare back in the day too).

Sars (as well as Mers) is actually much deadlier than Corona. Corona is just way more contagious.

I think we'll see plenty of people catch this, but not as many deaths (in the US anyways)

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3 minutes ago, King P said:

Coronavirus is related to Sars. That should be the comparison we should be making as it's the most accurate (and I remember the Sars scare back in the day too).

Sars (as well as Mers) is actually much deadlier than Corona. Corona is just way more contagious.

I think we'll see plenty of people catch this, but not as many deaths (in the US anyways)

We have over 5x the population of Italy, which is a poopshow now.   That country is shut down.  Let's say they stabilize that to 20,000 cases and 1,500 deaths (right now 12K cases and 800 or so deaths).  The Italian infection and fatality rate is far higher than anywhere else in Europe.  Did not compare Asia and Iran.

So, in the US, it would not shock anyone if we had 100,000 cases and 15,000 deaths, in addition to our usual flu deaths, which can get close to 100,000 per year in bad years.  

The Spanish Flu in the US killed close to 700K people and infected around 30 million.   I also note that the Spanish flu started in late winter of 1918, basically stopped when it got warmer, and then came back with a wicked vengance that Fall and Winter.  Millions of soldiers returning home from where the virus basically started (France, not Spain, possibly via Indochinese workers) did not help.  

So we could see big numbers here.  In terms of contagion, we are 12 days or so behind Italy.  If we 2 days behind shutting down.   If we don't want to end up like Italy, we need to shutdown.  NOW.  

But let's see if NFL teams still write FA contracts.  Scouting and visits will become videoconferences. 

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2 minutes ago, varjet said:

We have over 5x the population of Italy, which is a poopshow now.   That country is shut down.  Let's say they stabilize that to 20,000 cases and 1,500 deaths (right now 12K cases and 800 or so deaths).  The Italian infection and fatality rate is far higher than anywhere else in Europe.  Did not compare Asia and Iran.

So, in the US, it would not shock anyone if we had 100,000 cases and 15,000 deaths, in addition to our usual flu deaths, which can get close to 100,000 per year in bad years.  

The Spanish Flu in the US killed close to 700K people and infected around 30 million.   I also note that the Spanish flu started in late winter of 1918, basically stopped when it got warmer, and then came back with a wicked vengance that Fall and Winter.  Millions of soldiers returning home from where the virus basically started (France, not Spain, possibly via Indochinese workers) did not help.  

So we could see big numbers here.  In terms of contagion, we are 12 days or so behind Italy.  If we 2 days behind shutting down.   If we don't want to end up like Italy, we need to shutdown.  NOW.  

But let's see if NFL teams still write FA contracts.  Scouting and visits will become videoconferences. 

Italy is a filthy country, sad to say. I'm Italian. Have they instituted pooper-scooper laws yet?

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3 minutes ago, genot said:

Italy is a filthy country, sad to say. I'm Italian. Have they instituted pooper-scooper laws yet?

  • The vast majority of cases in Italy are in the far north of the country, which is solidly Western Europe.  
  • Italy has particularly bad issues with this because (some of this is inside scoop):
    • They have a large Chinese worker population, particularly in the shops in the North that make nice clothes and shoes, etc.
    • They received a large number of visiting Chinese workers for Milan Fashion Week.
    • Their average population age is older.
    • Their initial efforts to address the problem was to shut to borders, rather than shutdown the people.

They have shutdown the country now, like they did in Asia.  It will get warmer, and this will largely fizzle out.

I don't believe that this is a six month problem.  But it could become a bigger problem in October.  

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7 minutes ago, varjet said:
  • The vast majority of cases in Italy are in the far north of the country, which is solidly Western Europe.  
  • Italy has particularly bad issues with this because (some of this is inside scoop):
    • They have a large Chinese worker population, particularly in the shops in the North that make nice clothes and shoes, etc.
    • They received a large number of visiting Chinese workers for Milan Fashion Week.
    • Their average population age is older.
    • Their initial efforts to address the problem was to shut to borders, rather than shutdown the people.

They have shutdown the country now, like they did in Asia.  It will get warmer, and this will largely fizzle out.

I don't believe that this is a six month problem.  But it could become a bigger problem in October.  

Have they talked about the virus mutating?  I imagine it will come back stronger next winter and infect some of the same animals that gave us this wonderful disease the fist time.  Now IDK microbiology or epidemiology.  But i imagine they have to looking at this from a long term standpoint not just containing the current strain of the disease.

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6 minutes ago, varjet said:
  • The vast majority of cases in Italy are in the far north of the country, which is solidly Western Europe.  
  • Italy has particularly bad issues with this because (some of this is inside scoop):
    • They have a large Chinese worker population, particularly in the shops in the North that make nice clothes and shoes, etc.
    • They received a large number of visiting Chinese workers for Milan Fashion Week.
    • Their average population age is older.
    • Their initial efforts to address the problem was to shut to borders, rather than shutdown the people.

They have shutdown the country now, like they did in Asia.  It will get warmer, and this will largely fizzle out.

I don't believe that this is a six month problem.  But it could become a bigger problem in October.  

Not all viruses get weaker in warmer or humid weather.  Some get worse.  There are plenty of places that are inundated now where its been warm and humid.  Just because the flu acts that way doesn’t mean other viruses will.  The flu and the coronaviruses are not closely related.

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4 minutes ago, pdxgreen said:

Have they talked about the virus mutating?  I imagine it will come back stronger next winter and infect some of the same animals that gave us this wonderful disease the fist time... and then it's round two.  Now IDK microbiology or epidemiology.  But i imagine they have to looking at this from a long term standpoint not just containing the current strain of the disease.

Many chinese and korean specialists do believe that there are already multiple strains, or a post initial sickness chronic condition, as some people are getting sick more than once.

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16 minutes ago, genot said:

Italy is a filthy country, sad to say. I'm Italian. Have they instituted pooper-scooper laws yet?

Italy also has a very high percentage of elderly folks, don't know why, but I read that was why their death rate is so high.

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20 minutes ago, varjet said:
  • The vast majority of cases in Italy are in the far north of the country, which is solidly Western Europe.  
  • Italy has particularly bad issues with this because (some of this is inside scoop):
    • They have a large Chinese worker population, particularly in the shops in the North that make nice clothes and shoes, etc.
    • They received a large number of visiting Chinese workers for Milan Fashion Week.
    • Their average population age is older.
    • Their initial efforts to address the problem was to shut to borders, rather than shutdown the people.

They have shutdown the country now, like they did in Asia.  It will get warmer, and this will largely fizzle out.

I don't believe that this is a six month problem.  But it could become a bigger problem in October.  

Good points made. We, and the world community at large probably would be more ahead of the curve if the virus didn't originate in China. They still have a very closed society when it comes to government agencies.

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I'm in the over 60 age group which has (according to the latest numbers I've seen reported) a 6% death rate and that doubles if you have underlying health issues. The number doubles for over 70 and triples for over 80. My mom is 85 and she'll move into my house if things go to crap.

I'm self quarantining before I get exposed. Living in Florida and having gone through many hurricanes I always have a month's supply of essentials on hand and at least the electrical grid will stay up and I won't have to use the generator.

I was ahead of the curve on coronavirus and started stocking up for a prolonged quarantine period of 3 to 4 months. After that I'll have to hit the 20 year shelf life freeze dried supplies.

Also have a *few* N95 masks with respirator that I bought after the SARS scare, if I *have* to venture out. You can't get them now and with the latest reports that the coronavirus can stay airborne for three hours.  That's just scary stuff.

It's almost like this is an engineered bio-weapon. Is it a coincidence that China has a level 4 bio lab just 2 miles from the Wuhan market where the outbreak started and it was accidentally released.

Hope all stay safe and although I'll miss football - health issues come first.

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1 minute ago, Big_Slick said:

I'm in the over 60 age group which has (according to the latest numbers I've seen reported) a 6% death rate and that doubles if you have underlying health issues. The number doubles for over 70 and triples for over 80. My mom is 85 and she'll move into my house if things go to crap.

I'm self quarantining before I get exposed. Living in Florida and having gone through many hurricanes I always have a month's supply of essentials on hand and at least the electrical grid will stay up and I won't have to use the generator.

I was ahead of the curve on coronavirus and started stocking up for a prolonged quarantine period of 3 to 4 months. After that I'll have to hit the 20 year shelf life freeze dried supplies.

Also have a *few* N95 masks with respirator that I bought after the SARS scare, if I *have* to venture out. You can't get them now and with the latest reports that the coronavirus can stay airborne for three hours.  That's just scary stuff.

It's almost like this is an engineered bio-weapon. Is it a coincidence that China has a level 4 bio lab just 2 miles from the Wuhan market where the outbreak started and it was accidentally released.

Hope all stay safe and although I'll miss football - health issues come first.

Maybe thats why it was so difficult for us and others to extract information from them.

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4 minutes ago, Big_Slick said:

I'm in the over 60 age group which has (according to the latest numbers I've seen reported) a 6% death rate and that doubles if you have underlying health issues. The number doubles for over 70 and triples for over 80. My mom is 85 and she'll move into my house if things go to crap.

I'm self quarantining before I get exposed. Living in Florida and having gone through many hurricanes I always have a month's supply of essentials on hand and at least the electrical grid will stay up and I won't have to use the generator.

I was ahead of the curve on coronavirus and started stocking up for a prolonged quarantine period of 3 to 4 months. After that I'll have to hit the 20 year shelf life freeze dried supplies.

Also have a *few* N95 masks with respirator that I bought after the SARS scare, if I *have* to venture out. You can't get them now and with the latest reports that the coronavirus can stay airborne for three hours.  That's just scary stuff.

It's almost like this is an engineered bio-weapon. Is it a coincidence that China has a level 4 bio lab just 2 miles from the Wuhan market where the outbreak started and it was accidentally released.

Hope all stay safe and although I'll miss football - health issues come first.

Sounds like you're gunna head to a dirt shed in Idaho and live off dried potatoes.

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So, it looks like my options for the weekend are English Premier League, or sitting with the wife watching Ghost Adventures, Real Housewives or Home Makeover shows.

English Premier League it is.  Go Tottenham Hotspur!!

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11 minutes ago, Big_Slick said:

That's plan B.

Actually, it's a lot more popular than it used to be.  I guess people are trying to turn Boise into a hipster beer garden now.  Probably the same people who went to Bend and decided they needed a new Aspen.

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