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OT: I just tested positive with COVID

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This isn't true.  I know for a fact it takes up to three days.  My brother in law has one dead uncle and two other family members infected.  All have been tested but the uncle died before he got his results.  People who are sick but aren't sick enough to be hospitalized are NOT being tested at all.  I know this first hand as well as two friends are in quarantine with fever and flu-like symptoms but were turned away from testing sites.  I'm a first-responder and the municipality I work for has seen a steady rise in medical calls due to this virus, and the calls keep climbing in frequency.  The 28% number is only those who have been able to meet the standard for testing.  The virus is rampant and growing.  First responders are seeing it first hand, medical workers are seeing it first hand and hospitals are being overwhelmed.  Hypochondriacs indeed.  

Took me my mom and dad 48 hours to get results. Someone who get tested the day before us, got results the day after us. 4-6 hours unheard of unless you’re an NBA player. NY residents tests get sent to ATL to be tested, not in state.


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900+ deaths in Italy today

700+ deaths in Spain today

 

These numbers are getting crazy.

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1 hour ago, varjet said:

I am not an expert or doctor, but my observations so far on this are:

  • This virus spreads most aggressively through personal contact.  That is why there was so much spread in New Rochelle and Westport, where the carriers were obviously hugging and touching at social events.   I have asked my office to have it cleaned before we get back, but I am not really worried when I get back there a month later.  It supposedly does not last on surfaces longer than 3 weeks, on the outside.  
  • After that, travel is a big spreader-airports, airplanes, mass transit.  Nursing homes, cruise ships.  People breathing on other people.  
  • I am not really worried about catching it from someone in a park.  We need to get outside.  
  • As we know, people with compromised immunity for whatever reason are greatly at risk.  This is really highlighting the different states of people's health.  
  • The Diamond Princess, and Italy, are worst case scenario in different ways.   But in our context, they don't get to the millions of deaths that some predict.
    • For the Diamond Princess, a cruise ship where people were basically trapped on it, 17% of the people caught the virus, with only half showing significant symptoms.  Less than 1% of the people who caught the virus died.   In my view that is a worst case scenario-NYC or its suburbs are not as nearly confined as a cruise ship.
    • In Italy, when looking at the numbers for a nation of 60 million people, at least last week 2/3 of the cases were in the north where $10 million people live.  I think that is close to what the NY area will expect to see.   Except, hopefully, our fatality rate will be much less.   Italy's rate is affected by the age of the victims and the resources of the health system.  
      • So, roughly, Northern Italy has around 60,000 cases and 6,000 deaths.   Westchester, NYC, Nassau and Suffolk already have almost 30,000 cases but around 500 deaths.  If we run out of ventilators, that will change.  Imagine the headlines if we had 3,000 deaths in NY already?  We are still early in the process though.  Thank our healthcare providers. 
  • Our Governors and the Federal Government need to come up with a deal where they get this equipment and masks, etc. made right away and share the cost fairly.  In the current administration, they want to fund the urban experiment of NY/NJ as little as possible.  Cuomo is not dumping this all on Trump.  Expect our taxes to go up and/or schools to get worse.
  • This virus will not be a problem of the urban heathen.  All of the little darlings who went to Mardi Gras and Spring Break will bring it home to the rest of the country.  The virus will be everywhere by Easter.  How Trump manages the competing interests will determine if he is re-elected.  In my view, he has gone from a shoe-in a month ago to likely being tossed out.  

That's a good, fair assessment of things.  I won't get into the politics of reelection other than to say that how things go with the Coronavirus, both health-wise and the economic ramifications, by the end of the summer will absolutely determine whether he's re-elected.

Close proximity to other people, crowded cities like NY with subways and 400 people living in the same apartment building sharing elevators and touching buttons, and cruise ships....which are basically floating petri dishes, are all ripe for spread.  It's completely obvious that social distancing, whether it's done on purpose like it is now or whether it happens normally like in suburban and rural communities, results in less spread.

Italy is a unique situation influenced, as you said, by their demographics (older population) as well as other factors (they had a large number of Chinese tourists this year is my understanding), but also their culture and social norms.  Places like Italy and Spain have a rich history of multiple generations living together or seeing each other often.  Asymptomatic carriers like kids going to visit Grandma every Sunday and bringing loaves of bread unknowingly were spreading the disease.  Kissing on the cheeks and hugging in those countries, in France as well, are simply traditions that unfortunately support more extensive spread.  And, in regard to fatality rates, I don't know what percentage of Europeans have underlying conditions but we all know there's a greater percentage of people there, particularly older generations, that smoke and this is a respiratory disease.  It's simply a really tragic mix of demographics, cultural norms, and a late recognition of the problem that seems to be disproportionately affecting Italy (and similar countries).

Stay well (and stay away :) ) my friends.

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11 minutes ago, joebracken33 said:

900+ deaths in Italy today

700+ deaths in Spain today

 

These numbers are getting crazy.

And that's despite a lockdown that started over two weeks ago!  My sense, just a gut feeling, is that the fatality rate is now climbing simply due to the overwhelmed healthcare system and an inability to treat sick patients the way they normally would under normal conditions.  I don't think the cases themselves are growing as much as the fatality rate.  They simply have patients who would otherwise be saved and would recover if they got the full attention, equipment and rapid treatment that would typically be available at other times.  Again, just a guess but I think that may be what's happening.

I hope we don't head that way here....but I fear we might.  The US is probably about 2-3 weeks away from any hope of seeing the case volumes start to stabilize. 

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https://www.zerohedge.com/health/stunning-visualization-reveals-where-spring-break-covidiots-traveled-after-flooding-florida

A lot of places in the midwest and eastern seaboard are going to see spikes because of the sheer negligence of the spring break crowd. Add the Mardi Gras revelers and you've got the recipe for serious problems all over the US.

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Well its officially in my town in rural Maine peeps.

A girl making pizzas in the only town store has tested positive. My town has 1300 people.

Dont know what to say right now....

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50 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

And that's despite a lockdown that started over two weeks ago!  My sense, just a gut feeling, is that the fatality rate is now climbing simply due to the overwhelmed healthcare system and an inability to treat sick patients the way they normally would under normal conditions.  I don't think the cases themselves are growing as much as the fatality rate.  They simply have patients who would otherwise be saved and would recover if they got the full attention, equipment and rapid treatment that would typically be available at other times.  Again, just a guess but I think that may be what's happening.

I hope we don't head that way here....but I fear we might.  The US is probably about 2-3 weeks away from any hope of seeing the case volumes start to stabilize. 

Based on the timelines of the shutdown in Italy and the general amount of time the average death occurs due to the virus, would most of these deaths occuring the last few days in Italy be from infections right before or at the beginning of the lockdown?  My math could be wrong there.

The death rate is bad, and obviously the deaths are what everyone is trying to minimize, but wouldn't a better indication of the lockdown succes be the daily growth percentage rates in new reported cases?

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1 hour ago, joebracken33 said:

900+ deaths in Italy today

700+ deaths in Spain today

 

These numbers are getting crazy.

Deaths in Italy/Spain have been fairly stable for about 5 days now. Today was a bump for Italy, hopefully its just a blip and not a sign of another level of infection. Deaths are typically 7-14 days behind the new case numbers (case numbers are generally bunk because they only represent the few sick enough to be tested, and can change drastically based on changing testing policies and capacity). The important thing is to see the daily death numbers not grow at an exponential rate. So far this week the trend in Italy and Spain has been encouraging. 

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23 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

Based on the timelines of the shutdown in Italy and the general amount of time the average death occurs due to the virus, would most of these deaths occuring the last few days in Italy be from infections right before or at the beginning of the lockdown?  My math could be wrong there.

The death rate is bad, and obviously the deaths are what everyone is trying to minimize, but wouldn't a better indication of the lockdown succes be the daily growth percentage rates in new reported cases?

I think you're correct on both.  My understanding of "typical" timelines is something like Day 0 contact with an infected person, Day 4-5 first sign of symptoms, Day 7-8 symptoms bad enough to go to hospital, Day 16-20 potential death for those who can't recover.  I don't know if I'm off by 2-3 days here and there but a March 9th lockdown in Italy (I believe that was the date) would put us at about Day 18 right now for anyone who got infected right around that time.

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14 minutes ago, JetPotato said:

As long as there are those that believe that their fairy tales come before science, and that their beliefs excuse them from the law, the rest of us will be screwed.

And a lot of them are ignoring what Paul had to say on the matter:

"Obey the government, for God is the One who has put it there. ... So those who refuse to obey the law of the land are refusing to obey God, and punishment will follow."

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amy advice to the chicken littles and to the sceptics alike. don't touch things you don't need to touch. wash your hands thoroughly and often. and the biggest thing. keep your hands off you face. the average human touches their face 3000 times a day. make this a conscious effort. do these 3 things and your ability to stay corona free go up drastically. stay safe

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beautiful family you have there....but who is that goofy looking dude sitting with them??? in all seriousness, glad everything is working out for you. I couldn't imagine the worry with the baby

Funny guy! Thank you! Yeah, when I found out I was positive I had a slight mental breakdown over it (cried and punched things) because my biggest worry was putting my son and wife’s health in jeopardy. Thankfully he’s been the healthiest in the whole house :)


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NJ testing centers now operating every other day. North Jersey one day, Holmdel the next. 500 tests per day.  Per Phil Murphy

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  • Italy has a very significant population of illegal Chinese workers, and over Milan Fashion Week many Chinese tailors came there to help since they were off for Chinese New Year.  I know this as fact.  Add the older population, smoking, and social interaction-catastrophe.   
  • The death rates we are seeing now represent people who have been sick a week plus and a breakdown of medical care.  Older people are not getting ventilators.  Older may be down to 60.  
  • NY fatality rates are now 1% of reported cases.  Those are generally people with symptoms.   Diamond Princess was 2%.   Italy is over 10%.   Let's see where NY comes in.  
  • No one should put any faith into the tests.  Tests this point are not helpful.  At this point assume the virus is everywhere, anyone you see has it, and if you get sick, you have the virus.  There are the test results.  If your symptoms advance, seek help. Otherwise, 80% of people who show symptoms will sleep it off.   In two weeks when we start to talk about going back to work, we can focus on testing, and taking it seriously:  Doing sampling, tracing contacts, etc.  Now its just a video game.  
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4 hours ago, varjet said:

I am not an expert or doctor, but my observations so far on this are:

  • This virus spreads most aggressively through personal contact.  That is why there was so much spread in New Rochelle and Westport, where the carriers were obviously hugging and touching at social events.   I have asked my office to have it cleaned before we get back, but I am not really worried when I get back there a month later.  It supposedly does not last on surfaces longer than 3 weeks, on the outside.  
  • After that, travel is a big spreader-airports, airplanes, mass transit.  Nursing homes, cruise ships.  People breathing on other people.  
  • I am not really worried about catching it from someone in a park.  We need to get outside.  
  • As we know, people with compromised immunity for whatever reason are greatly at risk.  This is really highlighting the different states of people's health.  
  • The Diamond Princess, and Italy, are worst case scenario in different ways.   But in our context, they don't get to the millions of deaths that some predict.
    • For the Diamond Princess, a cruise ship where people were basically trapped on it, 17% of the people caught the virus, with only half showing significant symptoms.  Less than 1% of the people who caught the virus died.   In my view that is a worst case scenario-NYC or its suburbs are not as nearly confined as a cruise ship.
    • In Italy, when looking at the numbers for a nation of 60 million people, at least last week 2/3 of the cases were in the north where $10 million people live.  I think that is close to what the NY area will expect to see.   Except, hopefully, our fatality rate will be much less.   Italy's rate is affected by the age of the victims and the resources of the health system.  
      • So, roughly, Northern Italy has around 60,000 cases and 6,000 deaths.   Westchester, NYC, Nassau and Suffolk already have almost 30,000 cases but around 500 deaths.  If we run out of ventilators, that will change.  Imagine the headlines if we had 3,000 deaths in NY already?  We are still early in the process though.  Thank our healthcare providers. 
  • Our Governors and the Federal Government need to come up with a deal where they get this equipment and masks, etc. made right away and share the cost fairly.  In the current administration, they want to fund the urban experiment of NY/NJ as little as possible.  Cuomo is not dumping this all on Trump.  Expect our taxes to go up and/or schools to get worse.
  • This virus will not be a problem of the urban heathen.  All of the little darlings who went to Mardi Gras and Spring Break will bring it home to the rest of the country.  The virus will be everywhere by Easter.  How Trump manages the competing interests will determine if he is re-elected.  In my view, he has gone from a shoe-in a month ago to likely being tossed out.  

U were doing great until the politics

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53 minutes ago, NYallDay said:

 

 

 


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Thats nuts. No wonder ny is getting hit so hard

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3 hours ago, joebracken33 said:

900+ deaths in Italy today

700+ deaths in Spain today

 

These numbers are getting crazy.

Death are a bit of lagging indicator of transmission. Growth rate in Italy has slowed considerably based on cases. It's a terrible situation for sure, but one that shows signs of moving past it's peak, albeit slowly.

 

image.thumb.png.68170c49f4fd97a1659ef65e8a682371.png

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Thats nuts. No wonder ny is getting hit so hard

Yeah NY sucks with social distancing. But, wonderful money hungry companies play a major part, see my previous posts. So sh*tty


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1 hour ago, Maxman said:

NJ testing centers now operating every other day. North Jersey one day, Holmdel the next. 500 tests per day.  Per Phil Murphy

I’ve been saying but tests are basically just for numbers at this point. If you show symptoms most place are telling you to assume you have it and follow the steps you would with it. 

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3 hours ago, NYallDay said:


Took me my mom and dad 48 hours to get results. Someone who get tested the day before us, got results the day after us. 4-6 hours unheard of unless you’re an NBA player. NY residents tests get sent to ATL to be tested, not in state.


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I was tested on Wednesday and still waiting on results. Had a mild dry cough for a couple days which started last week and then starting on saturday was sick with body aches, mild cough and had a low grade fever twice that broke with tylenol. Basically mildish flu symptoms but my flu test was negative. Couldn't get tested where I got the flu test because my symptoms weren't severe and my lungs were clear. Was able to get a test done at a drive through site they set up at a local school. Just waiting to hear back. By now though I feel mostly better. My one kid said about 2 or so days ago he felt a little bit sick/tired but seems to be ok. My younger kid has had a slight cough but nothing more significant as of yet. My wife says her legs are feeling achy so idk if she is gonna start feeling sick or not but she is eating normally and doesn't feel ill yet except for the ache in her legs. In a strange way I almost want this to have been coronavirus so we can just get it all over with. I know that things can go bad but the anxiety over it is pretty bad also

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1 hour ago, NYallDay said:

 

 

 


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This is infuriating and scary. The city has to do something about the subway. I know we need it running for essential workers, but this is insane. 

By the way, I'm glad you and your [quite adorable] family are doing better.

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This is infuriating and scary. The city has to do something about the subway. I know we need it running for essential workers, but this is insane. 
By the way, I'm glad you and your [quite adorable] family are doing better.

Yeah it’s ugly and will lead to no end of this thing. Thank you sir! House full of jets fans!


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1 hour ago, neckdemon said:

I was tested on Wednesday and still waiting on results. Had a mild dry cough for a couple days which started last week and then starting on saturday was sick with body aches, mild cough and had a low grade fever twice that broke with tylenol. Basically mildish flu symptoms but my flu test was negative. Couldn't get tested where I got the flu test because my symptoms weren't severe and my lungs were clear. Was able to get a test done at a drive through site they set up at a local school. Just waiting to hear back. By now though I feel mostly better. My one kid said about 2 or so days ago he felt a little bit sick/tired but seems to be ok. My younger kid has had a slight cough but nothing more significant as of yet. My wife says her legs are feeling achy so idk if she is gonna start feeling sick or not but she is eating normally and doesn't feel ill yet except for the ache in her legs. In a strange way I almost want this to have been coronavirus so we can just get it all over with. I know that things can go bad but the anxiety over it is pretty bad also

Wishing you the best, brother.

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3 hours ago, NYallDay said:


Funny guy! Thank you! Yeah, when I found out I was positive I had a slight mental breakdown over it (cried and punched things) because my biggest worry was putting my son and wife’s health in jeopardy. Thankfully he’s been the healthiest in the whole house :)


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The kid is a Jets fan. What do you expect.

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.

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I was tested on Wednesday and still waiting on results. Had a mild dry cough for a couple days which started last week and then starting on saturday was sick with body aches, mild cough and had a low grade fever twice that broke with tylenol. Basically mildish flu symptoms but my flu test was negative. Couldn't get tested where I got the flu test because my symptoms weren't severe and my lungs were clear. Was able to get a test done at a drive through site they set up at a local school. Just waiting to hear back. By now though I feel mostly better. My one kid said about 2 or so days ago he felt a little bit sick/tired but seems to be ok. My younger kid has had a slight cough but nothing more significant as of yet. My wife says her legs are feeling achy so idk if she is gonna start feeling sick or not but she is eating normally and doesn't feel ill yet except for the ache in her legs. In a strange way I almost want this to have been coronavirus so we can just get it all over with. I know that things can go bad but the anxiety over it is pretty bad also

Feel better homie! Hydrate and rest man.


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4 hours ago, nico002 said:

Deaths in Italy/Spain have been fairly stable for about 5 days now. Today was a bump for Italy, hopefully its just a blip and not a sign of another level of infection. Deaths are typically 7-14 days behind the new case numbers (case numbers are generally bunk because they only represent the few sick enough to be tested, and can change drastically based on changing testing policies and capacity). The important thing is to see the daily death numbers not grow at an exponential rate. So far this week the trend in Italy and Spain has been encouraging.

Last 6 days here in Spain (deaths) :

391, 539, 680, 656, 718, 769.

 

Difference between yesterday and today:

Infected : + 14%

Deaths : + 18%

Recuperated: + 33%

 

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5 hours ago, joebracken33 said:

900+ deaths in Italy today

700+ deaths in Spain today

 

These numbers are getting crazy.

Wow

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5 hours ago, BUM-KNEE said:

Well its officially in my town in rural Maine peeps.

A girl making pizzas in the only town store has tested positive. My town has 1300 people.

Dont know what to say right now....

Don't order pizza

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