Offensive Tackles, 40 Times, Broad Jumps and Pro Bowls

[nyjbuddy]

After reading this article from a couple years ago: https://www.fieldgulls.com/2018/3/5/17080128/seattle-seahawks-offensive-lineman-40-time-important-nfl-combine-draft-pro-bowl-tyron-trent, I did a little research to see the accuracy of the data as well as where it fits into the 2020 draft.  Interestingly, the article mentions George Fant as a candidate that meets their criteria.

The TLDR; version of the article: Offensive left tackles with a 40 time <= 4.96 seconds, broad jump > 107 tend to have a high floor when entering the NFL with a high probability of success.

In my research, I took the approach of finding a corelation between pro bowlers and their combine metrics.  I looked at the last 10 pro bowls and analyzed their combine data.  There is in fact a strong corelation between "pro bowl left tackles" and their 40 times and broad jump.

Data (3 pro bowlers are left off the list: Lane Johnson, Orlando Brown, Trent Brown, all who were primarily right tackles during their pro bowl selection year):

Reg Season Pos	Name	Draft Round	Draft Pick	Height	Weight	40 time	Broad Jump	Pro Bowl
LT	Terron Armstead	3	75	76.750	306	4.71	112	2
LT	Joe Staley	1	28	77.875	306	4.78	112	6
LT	Trent Williams	1	4	76.625	315	4.81	113	7
LT	Taylor Lewan	1	11	79.125	309	4.87	116	3
LT	Jermon Bushrod	4	125	76.630	315	4.92	102	2
LT	Tyron Smith	1	9	77.000	307	4.93	109	7
LT	Jason Peters	UDFA		76.000	328	4.93	115	9
LT	Joe Thomas	1	3	78.630	311	4.94	110	10
LT	Kyle Long	1	20	78.125	313	4.94	107	3
LT	Matt Kalil	1	4	78.625	306	4.96		1
LT	Duane Brown	1	26	76.125	315	5.03	108	4
LT	Eric Fisher	1	1	79.250	306	5.05	116	1
LT	Jordan Gross	1	8	76.500	300	5.05	112	3
LT	Donald Penn	UDFA		76.250	317	5.05		3
LT	D'Brickashaw Ferguson	1	4	78.000	312	5.08	107	3
LT	Chad Clifton	2	44	77.300	334	5.12	102	2
LT	Brandon Albert	1	15	77.625	309	5.17	111	2
LT	Russell Okung	1	6	77.250	307	5.17		2
LT	Andrew Whitworth	2	55	79.000	334	5.17	112	4
LT	Ryan Clady	1	12	78.125	309	5.18	108	4
LT	David Bakhtiari	4	109	76.250	299	5.18	101	2
LT	Ronnie Stanley	1	6	77.750	312	5.2		1
LT	Jake Long	1	1	79.000	313	5.26	102	4
LT	Matt Light	2	48	76.800	311	5.3		3
LT	Tyson Clabo	UDFA		78.900	315	5.45	100	1
LT	Laremy Tunsil	1	13	77.000	310		111	1
LT	Alejandro Villavueva	UDFA		81.000	320			2

About the data: 30 tackles have been selected in the last 10 pro bowls.  27 qualifying tackles (played primarily left tackle during the season).

3 tackles did not run faster than a 5.2 40, 2 tackles did not have sufficient data.  7 ran between 5.10 and 5.21.  15 ran faster than 5.10.

60% (15 of 25) ran a faster than 5.10 40.

40% (10 of 25) ran a fast 4.96 or faster.

As for the broad jump, 6 did not have sufficient data, while 5 jumped less than 107. 16 of 21 had broad jumps greater than 107.

Of the 27 qualifying pro bowlers, 9 had a 4.96 40 time or faster and greater than 107 broad.  The 7 that were selected in the 1st round, have a combined 36 of 46 years as a pro bowlers.  If you include the two non-first rounders, Terron Armstead and Jason Peters, you get a combined 47 out of 66.  Thats 47 pro bowl selections in 66 possible years in the league.

Just as a comparison, 27 offensive linemen (include all linemen not just tackles) would qualify for this list from the past 20 drafts.

This is not to say that if a tackle runs faster than 4.96 and has a 107 or greater broad jump, they will be a pro bowler.  But of pro bowl left tackles they mostly have fast 40 times and a great broad jump.

2020 draft prospect that fit this criteria?  Faster than 4.96 in bold:

Name	40 time	Broad Jump
Tristan Wirfs	4.85	121
Danny Pinter	4.91	110
Ezra Cleveland	4.93	111
Jack Driscoll	5.02	114
Jedrick Wills	5.05	113
Matt Peart	5.06	113
Austin Jackson	5.07	115
Jon Runyan	5.08	107
Cesar Ruiz	5.08	113
Alex Taylor	5.09	116

 

 

 

 

 

[RobR]

42 minutes ago, nyjbuddy said:

After reading this article from a couple years ago: https://www.fieldgulls.com/2018/3/5/17080128/seattle-seahawks-offensive-lineman-40-time-important-nfl-combine-draft-pro-bowl-tyron-trent, I did a little research to see the accuracy of the data as well as where it fits into the 2020 draft.  Interestingly, the article mentions George Fant as a candidate that meets their criteria.

The TLDR; version of the article: Offensive left tackles with a 40 time <= 4.96 seconds, broad jump > 107 tend to have a high floor when entering the NFL with a high probability of success.

In my research, I took the approach of finding a corelation between pro bowlers and their combine metrics.  I looked at the last 10 pro bowls and analyzed their combine data.  There is in fact a strong corelation between "pro bowl left tackles" and their 40 times and broad jump.

Data (3 pro bowlers are left off the list: Lane Johnson, Orlando Brown, Trent Brown, all who were primarily right tackles during their pro bowl selection year):

Reg Season Pos	Name	Draft Round	Draft Pick	Height	Weight	40 time	Broad Jump	Pro Bowl
LT	Terron Armstead	3	75	76.750	306	4.71	112	2
LT	Joe Staley	1	28	77.875	306	4.78	112	6
LT	Trent Williams	1	4	76.625	315	4.81	113	7
LT	Taylor Lewan	1	11	79.125	309	4.87	116	3
LT	Jermon Bushrod	4	125	76.630	315	4.92	102	2
LT	Tyron Smith	1	9	77.000	307	4.93	109	7
LT	Jason Peters	UDFA		76.000	328	4.93	115	9
LT	Joe Thomas	1	3	78.630	311	4.94	110	10
LT	Kyle Long	1	20	78.125	313	4.94	107	3
LT	Matt Kalil	1	4	78.625	306	4.96		1
LT	Duane Brown	1	26	76.125	315	5.03	108	4
LT	Eric Fisher	1	1	79.250	306	5.05	116	1
LT	Jordan Gross	1	8	76.500	300	5.05	112	3
LT	Donald Penn	UDFA		76.250	317	5.05		3
LT	D'Brickashaw Ferguson	1	4	78.000	312	5.08	107	3
LT	Chad Clifton	2	44	77.300	334	5.12	102	2
LT	Brandon Albert	1	15	77.625	309	5.17	111	2
LT	Russell Okung	1	6	77.250	307	5.17		2
LT	Andrew Whitworth	2	55	79.000	334	5.17	112	4
LT	Ryan Clady	1	12	78.125	309	5.18	108	4
LT	David Bakhtiari	4	109	76.250	299	5.18	101	2
LT	Ronnie Stanley	1	6	77.750	312	5.2		1
LT	Jake Long	1	1	79.000	313	5.26	102	4
LT	Matt Light	2	48	76.800	311	5.3		3
LT	Tyson Clabo	UDFA		78.900	315	5.45	100	1
LT	Laremy Tunsil	1	13	77.000	310		111	1
LT	Alejandro Villavueva	UDFA		81.000	320			2

About the data: 30 tackles have been selected in the last 10 pro bowls.  27 qualifying tackles (played primarily left tackle during the season).

3 tackles did not run faster than a 5.2 40, 2 tackles did not have sufficient data.  7 ran between 5.10 and 5.21.  15 ran faster than 5.10.

60% (15 of 25) ran a faster than 5.10 40.

40% (10 of 25) ran a fast 4.96 or faster.

As for the broad jump, 6 did not have sufficient data, while 5 jumped less than 107. 16 of 21 had broad jumps greater than 107.

Of the 27 qualifying pro bowlers, 9 had a 4.96 40 time or faster and greater than 107 broad.  The 7 that were selected in the 1st round, have a combined 36 of 46 years as a pro bowlers.  If you include the two non-first rounders, Terron Armstead and Jason Peters, you get a combined 47 out of 66.  Thats 47 pro bowl selections in 66 possible years in the league.

Just as a comparison, 27 offensive linemen (include all linemen not just tackles) would qualify for this list from the past 20 drafts.

This is not to say that if a tackle runs faster than 4.96 and has a 107 or greater broad jump, they will be a pro bowler.  But of pro bowl left tackles they mostly have fast 40 times and a great broad jump.

2020 draft prospect that fit this criteria?  Faster than 4.96 in bold:

Name	40 time	Broad Jump
Tristan Wirfs	4.85	121
Danny Pinter	4.91	110
Ezra Cleveland	4.93	111
Jack Driscoll	5.02	114
Jedrick Wills	5.05	113
Matt Peart	5.06	113
Austin Jackson	5.07	115
Jon Runyan	5.08	107
Cesar Ruiz	5.08	113
Alex Taylor	5.09	116

 

 

 

 

 

What is crazy is that someone like Becton almost falls into this category yet he is 40-50lbs. heavier than any of these other lineman. We also don't have the jumps for Becton because he pulled up after his first drill but it lends credence that someone his size ran a 5.1 flat which is unheard of.

[nyjbuddy]

27 minutes ago, RobR said:

What is crazy is that someone like Becton almost falls into this category yet he is 40-50lbs. heavier than any of these other lineman. We also don't have the jumps for Becton because he pulled up after his first drill but it lends credence that someone his size ran a 5.1 flat which is unheard of.

Becton is interesting too because there has not been a recent left tackle pro bowler of his size. Only Clifton, Whitworth and Villanueva were over 315 pounds.  Two of the three right tackles left off the list (Trent Brown and Orlando Brown) both weighed over 345 pounds.  Making the pro bowl as a right tackle is pretty amazing as not too many right tackles make the pro bowl. 

[RobR]

6 minutes ago, nyjbuddy said:

Becton is interesting too because there has not been a recent left tackle pro bowler of his size. Only Clifton, Whitworth and Villanueva were over 315 pounds.  Two of the three right tackles left off the list (Trent Brown and Orlando Brown) both weighed over 345 pounds.  Making the pro bowl as a right tackle is pretty amazing as not too many right tackles make the pro bowl. 

If you look up what HOF's Ogden and Jones did, you will see Becton blew their performance out of the water. Ogden ran a 5.18 at 318 lbs. Walter Jones dropped a 5.09 but he only weighed 301lbs. Becton ran as fast or faster than these two players at 40-50 lbs. heavier showing how elite his time really was. He's also taller than Jones and about the same height as Ogden but is even longer. I think he's the first tackle off the board but we'll see soon enough.

[Philc1]

[nyjbuddy]

Another late round (6th/7th) or UDFA prospect: Arlington Hambright

A little older as he played at Oklahoma State then did his graduate studies at Colorado.  But could be a late round project the way that Fant was for Seattle.

Check out his pro day results: 

Height: 6-3 7/8
Weight: 307 lbs
Hand size: 9 3/8
Wingspan: 79 5/8
40: 4.95
Vertical: 28.5
Broad Jump: 109
Bench: 29

 

[RobR]

I don't see him as a tackle at the next level. He looks small and undersized for the position and he doesn't move well. He takes babysteps in passpro and doesn't have much punch. He has guard conversion written all over him.

 

[nyjbuddy]

32 minutes ago, RobR said:

I don't see him as a tackle at the next level. He looks small and undersized for the position and he doesn't move well. He takes babysteps in passpro and doesn't have much punch. He has guard conversion written all over him.

 

He is a little shorter than the ideal size.  He needs to work on his pass pro, especially against speed rushers.  But he does an adequate job getting to the second level and sealing off blocks.  He would be a late round / UDFA project, practice squad type of player.

[jetstream23]

On 3/23/2020 at 2:57 PM, nyjbuddy said:

After reading this article from a couple years ago: https://www.fieldgulls.com/2018/3/5/17080128/seattle-seahawks-offensive-lineman-40-time-important-nfl-combine-draft-pro-bowl-tyron-trent, I did a little research to see the accuracy of the data as well as where it fits into the 2020 draft.  Interestingly, the article mentions George Fant as a candidate that meets their criteria.

The TLDR; version of the article: Offensive left tackles with a 40 time <= 4.96 seconds, broad jump > 107 tend to have a high floor when entering the NFL with a high probability of success.

In my research, I took the approach of finding a corelation between pro bowlers and their combine metrics.  I looked at the last 10 pro bowls and analyzed their combine data.  There is in fact a strong corelation between "pro bowl left tackles" and their 40 times and broad jump.

Data (3 pro bowlers are left off the list: Lane Johnson, Orlando Brown, Trent Brown, all who were primarily right tackles during their pro bowl selection year):

Reg Season Pos	Name	Draft Round	Draft Pick	Height	Weight	40 time	Broad Jump	Pro Bowl
LT	Terron Armstead	3	75	76.750	306	4.71	112	2
LT	Joe Staley	1	28	77.875	306	4.78	112	6
LT	Trent Williams	1	4	76.625	315	4.81	113	7
LT	Taylor Lewan	1	11	79.125	309	4.87	116	3
LT	Jermon Bushrod	4	125	76.630	315	4.92	102	2
LT	Tyron Smith	1	9	77.000	307	4.93	109	7
LT	Jason Peters	UDFA		76.000	328	4.93	115	9
LT	Joe Thomas	1	3	78.630	311	4.94	110	10
LT	Kyle Long	1	20	78.125	313	4.94	107	3
LT	Matt Kalil	1	4	78.625	306	4.96		1
LT	Duane Brown	1	26	76.125	315	5.03	108	4
LT	Eric Fisher	1	1	79.250	306	5.05	116	1
LT	Jordan Gross	1	8	76.500	300	5.05	112	3
LT	Donald Penn	UDFA		76.250	317	5.05		3
LT	D'Brickashaw Ferguson	1	4	78.000	312	5.08	107	3
LT	Chad Clifton	2	44	77.300	334	5.12	102	2
LT	Brandon Albert	1	15	77.625	309	5.17	111	2
LT	Russell Okung	1	6	77.250	307	5.17		2
LT	Andrew Whitworth	2	55	79.000	334	5.17	112	4
LT	Ryan Clady	1	12	78.125	309	5.18	108	4
LT	David Bakhtiari	4	109	76.250	299	5.18	101	2
LT	Ronnie Stanley	1	6	77.750	312	5.2		1
LT	Jake Long	1	1	79.000	313	5.26	102	4
LT	Matt Light	2	48	76.800	311	5.3		3
LT	Tyson Clabo	UDFA		78.900	315	5.45	100	1
LT	Laremy Tunsil	1	13	77.000	310		111	1
LT	Alejandro Villavueva	UDFA		81.000	320			2

About the data: 30 tackles have been selected in the last 10 pro bowls.  27 qualifying tackles (played primarily left tackle during the season).

3 tackles did not run faster than a 5.2 40, 2 tackles did not have sufficient data.  7 ran between 5.10 and 5.21.  15 ran faster than 5.10.

60% (15 of 25) ran a faster than 5.10 40.

40% (10 of 25) ran a fast 4.96 or faster.

As for the broad jump, 6 did not have sufficient data, while 5 jumped less than 107. 16 of 21 had broad jumps greater than 107.

Of the 27 qualifying pro bowlers, 9 had a 4.96 40 time or faster and greater than 107 broad.  The 7 that were selected in the 1st round, have a combined 36 of 46 years as a pro bowlers.  If you include the two non-first rounders, Terron Armstead and Jason Peters, you get a combined 47 out of 66.  Thats 47 pro bowl selections in 66 possible years in the league.

Just as a comparison, 27 offensive linemen (include all linemen not just tackles) would qualify for this list from the past 20 drafts.

This is not to say that if a tackle runs faster than 4.96 and has a 107 or greater broad jump, they will be a pro bowler.  But of pro bowl left tackles they mostly have fast 40 times and a great broad jump.

2020 draft prospect that fit this criteria?  Faster than 4.96 in bold:

Name	40 time	Broad Jump
Tristan Wirfs	4.85	121
Danny Pinter	4.91	110
Ezra Cleveland	4.93	111
Jack Driscoll	5.02	114
Jedrick Wills	5.05	113
Matt Peart	5.06	113
Austin Jackson	5.07	115
Jon Runyan	5.08	107
Cesar Ruiz	5.08	113
Alex Taylor	5.09	116

 

 

 

 

 

Nice work!

I've been saying (without the data to back it up) that I think Joe Douglas only has 2 OT's on his Draft Board for #11....Wirfs and Wills, and that Becton and Thomas might not necessarily be Joe Douglas type guys.....at least not at #11.  Although, as was mentioned above, Becton's size/speed ratio is amazing.

I also think Matt Peart and Austin Jackson are good candidates for Round 2.  Hadn't thought about Cleveland but perhaps he's a candidate there too?

Question - What about Josh Jones?  I know @bitonti was pretty big on him as a potential fit for the Jets but his 5.27 time in the 40 was a bit of a disappointment....although his broad jump was 109 ft.

[nyjbuddy]

1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

Nice work!

I've been saying (without the data to back it up) that I think Joe Douglas only has 2 OT's on his Draft Board for #11....Wirfs and Wills, and that Becton and Thomas might not necessarily be Joe Douglas type guys.....at least not at #11.  Although, as was mentioned above, Becton's size/speed ratio is amazing.

I also think Matt Peart and Austin Jackson are good candidates for Round 2.  Hadn't thought about Cleveland but perhaps he's a candidate there too?

Question - What about Josh Jones?  I know @bitonti was pretty big on him as a potential fit for the Jets but his 5.27 time in the 40 was a bit of a disappointment....although his broad jump was 109 ft.

Not gonna count out any of the draft prospects based on the above data.  I was simply looking to better understand the traits of a pro bowl tackle.  Not to say that any of this year's prospects won't become a pro bowler simply because they didn't run a sub-5 40 and didn't jump further than 109 inches.  But I do believe as time goes on, patterns emerge to help identify the traits of successful NFL players.  In this case, there is a pattern among left tackle pro bowlers of the last 10 years.  In the next ten years this will change and we may see guys like Becton become the norm.

As for Josh Jones, I believe he is the safe pick when it comes to the 2nd tier of linemen.  Austin Jackson and Ezra Cleveland have shown less on tape but have the physical traits to match the elite athletes at the NFL level.  Both ranked in the top 5 in SPARQ scores.  To use a baseball analogy, with Jones your hitting a double.  With Jackson and Cleveland your swinging for the fences.  They are true boom or bust prospects.

It all depends on how the first round plays out.  Lets say the Jets decide to go with a receiver in the 1st and tackle in the 2nd.  If they select Ceedee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy (the supposed safer picks), they could try to take a gamble on someone like Cleveland or Jackson in the 2nd.  If they decide to gamble in the first and select a receiver like Henry Ruggs (doesn't have the production like the other two), I could see them coming back in the 2nd (perhaps having to trading up) for Jones.

[bitonti]

Kyle Long is on this list by the way he played his entire career at guard 

 

there's something here of value and certainly anytime a big man tears off a 4.8 it's notable. 

but If this chart had arm length i'd be more impressed - Im more worried about Josh Jones' arm length at 6'5" than his 5.2 40 yard dash

Size/Speed ratio is the thing i.e. Whitworth running 5.1 at 6-7 is rarer than the 4.9 guys. 

 

 

 

[nyjbuddy]

32 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Kyle Long is on this list by the way he played his entire career at guard 

 

there's something here of value and certainly anytime a big man tears off a 4.8 it's notable. 

but If this chart had arm length i'd be more impressed - Im more worried about Josh Jones' arm length at 6'5" than his 5.2 40 yard dash

Size/Speed ratio is the thing i.e. Whitworth running 5.1 at 6-7 is rarer than the 4.9 guys. 

 

 

 

Kyle Long is an interesting case. He made the pro bowl as a tackle in 2015.  The two previous years, he made the pro bowl as a guard.  Therefore, I had him listed as a tackle that made the list.  

https://www.nbcsports.com/northwest/nfl/produck-bears-tackle-kyle-long-named-3rd-straight-pro-bowl

As for the size/speed ratio, I agree it is something to look into.  It may include guys like Becton, but there is just not enough data to what that size/speed ratio may be.  As the players get bigger and faster, a better picture of what that ratio looks like may present itself.  With the game changing so rapidly all the time, these trends are not always easy to identify.

I will try to add arm length to the chart and see if there are any trends there.  The tracking of the 2 attributes came from the article, which I believe identifies Tom Cable as the origination of the threshold numbers.  I had also heard it anecdotally on podcasts like 'Move the Sticks' (ex-scouts), 'Trench Warfare' (analyst) and 'Ross Tucker Football Podcast' (former player).  These podcasts had mentioned the 40 times as a very high corelation to success in the NFL alongside the broad jump.  

Side note: Move the Sticks, with Bucky Brooks and Daniel Jeremiah is a good podcast with a look into the way the Seahawks and Ravens evaluate players.  When Jeremiah talks about the Raven's organization, it also provides insight into Joe Douglas' past and mindset.  They talk about the Ozzie Newsome way of doing things and sometimes disclose strategies that may be adopted into the Jets organization.  Its a very good podcast and even better as a Jets fan.

[bitonti]

21 minutes ago, nyjbuddy said:

 

As for the size/speed ratio, I agree it is something to look into.  It may include guys like Becton, but there is just not enough data to what that size/speed ratio may be.  

Rotoworld did an "Adjusted Sparq" list due to the incomplete draft season (no pro day)

https://www.rotoworld.com/article/nfl-draft-preview/2020-adjusted-sparq-scores-offense

Sparq also includes age as a factor which is often overlooked. Anyway they have Becton and Wirfs as generational prospects 

but I could also see the Jets drafting Matt Peart (UConn) or Alex Taylor (South Carolina st) in rd 3 and calling that a victory after restocking the skills in rd 1,2

gut feeling we spend all this time analyzing the tackles and there's a mighty run. NYG, CLE are almost 100% locks to go tackle. MIA, WAS, LAC have dire tackle needs. That's Chase Young and the top 4 potentially gone by 11  

[nyjbuddy]

28 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Rotoworld did an "Adjusted Sparq" list due to the incomplete draft season (no pro day)

https://www.rotoworld.com/article/nfl-draft-preview/2020-adjusted-sparq-scores-offense

Sparq also includes age as a factor which is often overlooked. Anyway they have Becton and Wirfs as generational prospects 

but I could also see the Jets drafting Matt Peart (UConn) or Alex Taylor (South Carolina st) in rd 3 and calling that a victory after restocking the skills in rd 1,2

gut feeling we spend all this time analyzing the tackles and there's a mighty run. NYG, CLE are almost 100% locks to go tackle. MIA, WAS, LAC have dire tackle needs. That's Chase Young and the top 4 potentially gone by 11  

That's the feeling I am getting too, which is also why I did this analysis.  I wanted to see if there were attributes of linemen that fall through the cracks.  Trying to identify the Bushrod, Peters, Armstead, Penn type players that were not drafted in the 1st round.  Either a trade back while still grabbing a player like Jones, Cleveland, Jackson may still yield a solid tackle while also taking lottery tickets like Peart and Taylor (like you mentioned) that maybe those mid-round gems.

Just my opinion, but it's harder to change size (mainly weight) and speed on a player than it is to teach proper technique.  It's just a huge time investment to teach skill, but lack of athleticism is not easy to overcome.  Some players may never learn technique, skill or have the football IQ to properly play the game, but that seems more coachable than telling someone to grow their arms longer or shave two-tenths of a second off their 40 time.

[#27TheDominator]

23 minutes ago, nyjbuddy said:

That's the feeling I am getting too, which is also why I did this analysis.  I wanted to see if there were attributes of linemen that fall through the cracks.  Trying to identify the Bushrod, Peters, Armstead, Penn type players that were not drafted in the 1st round.  Either a trade back while still grabbing a player like Jones, Cleveland, Jackson may still yield a solid tackle while also taking lottery tickets like Peart and Taylor (like you mentioned) that maybe those mid-round gems.

Just my opinion, but it's harder to change size (mainly weight) and speed on a player than it is to teach proper technique.  It's just a huge time investment to teach skill, but lack of athleticism is not easy to overcome.  Some players may never learn technique, skill or have the football IQ to properly play the game, but that seems more coachable than telling someone to grow their arms longer or shave two-tenths of a second off their 40 time.

I think length is what is hardest to change.  Most of these kids put on a decent amount of weight, but their arms are not getting any longer.

[RobR]

22 minutes ago, nyjbuddy said:

Taylor

Alex Taylor is trash. He didn't even look good playing at a small school like S Carolina St. The only reason people are mentioning him is because of his length, that's it. He looks like he would be better off playing basketball with his string bean frame. 

[bitonti]

2 hours ago, nyjbuddy said:

Just my opinion, but it's harder to change size (mainly weight) and speed on a player than it is to teach proper technique.  It's just a huge time investment to teach skill, but lack of athleticism is not easy to overcome.  Some players may never learn technique, skill or have the football IQ to properly play the game, but that seems more coachable than telling someone to grow their arms longer or shave two-tenths of a second off their 40 time.

George Fant went from 250 pound te basketball player to a 320 Left tackle starter. Weight can be added. Problem for Seattle it took 7 years and he got hurt a couple times along the way. Developmental prospects do take a while to develop.

That being said I think George Fant is better than a 68 his Madden rating and his size/speed compares favorably to many of these prospects (Josh Jones ish). The Jets want guys who can move in space.

Maybe this is why Douglas went hard on OT he's predicting they miss out on the marquee names

if they can trade down/wait until rd 2 and get Cesar Ruiz, Josh Jones they could sell it as poor man Nick and Brick. 

 

[Augustiniak]

5 hours ago, bitonti said:

Rotoworld did an "Adjusted Sparq" list due to the incomplete draft season (no pro day)

https://www.rotoworld.com/article/nfl-draft-preview/2020-adjusted-sparq-scores-offense

Sparq also includes age as a factor which is often overlooked. Anyway they have Becton and Wirfs as generational prospects 

but I could also see the Jets drafting Matt Peart (UConn) or Alex Taylor (South Carolina st) in rd 3 and calling that a victory after restocking the skills in rd 1,2

gut feeling we spend all this time analyzing the tackles and there's a mighty run. NYG, CLE are almost 100% locks to go tackle. MIA, WAS, LAC have dire tackle needs. That's Chase Young and the top 4 potentially gone by 11  

If the jets acquired someone like peters, they could groom someone like peart for a year or less before he took over.  This would allow them to stock up on wrs and perhaps even a new rb as well.  I also could see a trade back from 11 to 14-15 range where they would still take a wr, whether it’s ruggs or someone like Jefferson, and get an extra 3rd rounder.  Douglas has a rare opportunity to remake the offense with one good draft with this talent, and it’s not required that he takes a tackle at 11 to do it.

[RobR]

5 hours ago, bitonti said:

Rotoworld did an "Adjusted Sparq" list due to the incomplete draft season (no pro day)

https://www.rotoworld.com/article/nfl-draft-preview/2020-adjusted-sparq-scores-offense

Sparq also includes age as a factor which is often overlooked. Anyway they have Becton and Wirfs as generational prospects 

but I could also see the Jets drafting Matt Peart (UConn) or Alex Taylor (South Carolina st) in rd 3 and calling that a victory after restocking the skills in rd 1,2

gut feeling we spend all this time analyzing the tackles and there's a mighty run. NYG, CLE are almost 100% locks to go tackle. MIA, WAS, LAC have dire tackle needs. That's Chase Young and the top 4 potentially gone by 11  

How do they get an accurate Sparq score for Becton when all he did was run the 40? Anyone feel free to answer because I haven't a clue.

[RobR]

For anyone thinking Alex Taylor might be a good get here is some game tape against USF. He's the RT and is absolutely brutal.

 

[bitonti]

23 hours ago, RobR said:

How do they get an accurate Sparq score for Becton when all he did was run the 40? Anyone feel free to answer because I haven't a clue.

he didn't just run the 40. He measured. It sounds trite but he ran that 5.1 at 364 6'7" 35'1/8 arms etc 

he also benched 23

his measurements are rare but skipping drills is common btw. Prospects will often focus on 40 or one aspect for combine and another for pro day 4-6 weeks later

louisville pro day he wouldn't have ran 40 but probably would have 3coned or vert or whatever 

the fact he's a human being at 360 running 5.1 is probably enough data to put him at 100. I've never heard of anything like it size/speed wise 

[RobR]

4 minutes ago, bitonti said:

he didn't just run the 40. He measured. It sounds trite but he ran that 5.1 at 364 6'7" 35'1/8 arms etc 

he also benched 23

his measurements are rare but skipping drills is common btw. Prospects will often focus on 40 or one aspect for combine and another for pro day 4-6 weeks later

louisville pro day he wouldn't have ran 40 but probably would have 3coned or vert or whatever 

the fact he's a human being at 360 running 5.1 is probably enough data to put him at 100. I've never heard of anything like it size/speed wise 

My point is how do you get a Sparq score which is a measure for explosiveness when he didn't participate in any shuttles, 3 cone, broad jump, vertical.

If you leave all of those data points out I'd have to question the validity of Sparq. If all he did was get measured and run the 40 I think his Sparq score should be listed as incomplete.

 

[bitonti]

2 minutes ago, RobR said:

My point is how do you get a Sparq score which is a measure for explosiveness when he didn't participate in any shuttles, 3 cone, broad jump, vertical.

If you leave all of those data points out I'd have to question the validity of Sparq. If all he did was get measured and run the 40 I think his Sparq score should be listed as incomplete.

 

bench is 1 part of sparq as is 2 measurements and 3 age. with 4 the 40 that's like half of the tests 

he's missing 

• Vertical jump
• Broad jump
• 20 yard shuttle
• 3 cone drill

the whole thing is adjusted almost everyone on the list is missing a similar amount of data 

[RobR]

4 minutes ago, bitonti said:

bench is 1 part of sparq as is 2 measurements and 3 age. with 4 the 40 that's like half of the tests 

he's missing 

• Vertical jump
• Broad jump
• 20 yard shuttle
• 3 cone drill

the whole thing is adjusted almost everyone on the list is missing a similar amount of data 

That is why I have to question the validity of Sparq scores for certain players that don't have enough data points, including the ones I think are the most important like jumps and  and shuttles which show athleticism and change of direction.

It also has Alex Taylor listed very high for "Adjusted Sparq" and I'm not sure what that means. If you watch the tape I posted of Taylor you will see a clumsy player that moves terribly. It also lists Becton with a N/A on his Sparq, but for Adjusted Sparq he is higher than every single prospect in this draft.

I like Sparq rankings but if players don't have enough data points they should just do an incomplete which it sounds like Becton falls into that category unless you're looking at Adjusted Sparq only.

[bitonti]

6 minutes ago, RobR said:

I like Sparq rankings but if players don't have enough data points they should just do an incomplete which it sounds like Becton falls into that category unless you're looking at Adjusted Sparq only.

almost none of these guys have complete sparq profiles so it's an exercise, probably a flawed one. It's rotoworld for christ's sake

btw maybe you're right Taylor sucks they could be looking at Sam Cosmi (NEXT YEAR) as their perfect LT. They don't HAVE to take a tackle if the board doesn't work out the way they want it to 

 

Josh Jones is someone I keep coming back to as a fit for their system... maybe after a trade down, maybe rd 2 if he lasts somehow but he's not an elite sparq guy but tall enough etc. 

[RobR]

4 minutes ago, bitonti said:

almost none of these guys have complete sparq profiles so it's an exercise, probably a flawed one. It's rotoworld for christ's sake

I agree since it seems like they are the ones that came up with this dumb ass Adjusted Sparq. If you look at Taylor his Sparq score was terrible but his Adjusted Sparq puts him in the elite category all because he's tall and has long arms. It's beyond flawed. And Becton didn't generate a Sparq score because I'm assuming not enough data points.

I'm also a fan of Jones, just did a small write up on him yesterday in the OL thread. 

[nyjbuddy]

8 minutes ago, RobR said:

That is why I have to question the validity of Sparq scores for certain players that don't have enough data points, including the ones I think are the most important like jumps and  and shuttles which show athleticism and change of direction.

It also has Alex Taylor listed very high for "Adjusted Sparq" and I'm not sure what that means. If you watch the tape I posted of Taylor you will see a clumsy player that moves terribly. It also lists Becton with a N/A on his Sparq, but for Adjusted Sparq he is higher than every single prospect in this draft.

I like Sparq rankings but if players don't have enough data points they should just do an incomplete which it sounds like Becton falls into that category unless you're looking at Adjusted Sparq only.

I'm not sure how they got Becton's SPARQ scores.

As for Alex Taylor and SPARQ scores in general, it's about the athleticism not the ability to play.  Not trying to defend Alex Taylor, as I have watched no tape on him other than the link above, but SPARQ is to measure whether they are athletic, not necessarily good at what they do.  Him being "clumsy" and moving terribly may have more to do with his training and technique.  He doesn't seem to have much experience at all playing the football but is just a raw athlete.

His bio from nfl.com: Taylor was a star basketball player at Berkeley High School in South Carolina, only playing 17 games of football. He had the genes to play, however, with his uncle, Joe Hamilton, starring at quarterback for Georgia Tech and his uncle, Pierson Prioleau, excelling as a defensive back at Virginia Tech and in the NFL for over a decade. Taylor's father, Patrick, also played college football (Presbyterian). Appalachian State decided to take a chance on Taylor's athleticism and family lineage. He redshirted in 2015 and played in just four games as a reserve the next season. South Carolina State gave him a shot to play basketball, so he transferred before the 2017-2018 school year. Taylor played a bit as a backup that year and as a junior, but his decision to return to the gridiron in the fall of 2018 proved to be a good one. He was a third-team all-Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference selection after starting all 11 games at right tackle for the Gamecocks. Taylor started all 11 games at right tackle again as a senior, garnering third-team Associated Press All-American and first-team All-MEAC honors.

From his bio, I would think he is a late round flyer that needs time to develop, but the physical tools are there.  This is where coaching comes into play.  The positional coaches can work with these guys to develop the skills they need to perform on the field.  It's harder to take a guy that might be technically sound but has physical limitations.  Not much a positional coach can do, perhaps a physical trainer can help, but people have physical limitations no matter what they try to do.

[RobR]

6 minutes ago, nyjbuddy said:

I'm not sure how they got Becton's SPARQ scores.

As for Alex Taylor and SPARQ scores in general, it's about the athleticism not the ability to play.  Not trying to defend Alex Taylor, as I have watched no tape on him other than the link above, but SPARQ is to measure whether they are athletic, not necessarily good at what they do.  Him being "clumsy" and moving terribly may have more to do with his training and technique.  He doesn't seem to have much experience at all playing the football but is just a raw athlete.

His bio from nfl.com: Taylor was a star basketball player at Berkeley High School in South Carolina, only playing 17 games of football. He had the genes to play, however, with his uncle, Joe Hamilton, starring at quarterback for Georgia Tech and his uncle, Pierson Prioleau, excelling as a defensive back at Virginia Tech and in the NFL for over a decade. Taylor's father, Patrick, also played college football (Presbyterian). Appalachian State decided to take a chance on Taylor's athleticism and family lineage. He redshirted in 2015 and played in just four games as a reserve the next season. South Carolina State gave him a shot to play basketball, so he transferred before the 2017-2018 school year. Taylor played a bit as a backup that year and as a junior, but his decision to return to the gridiron in the fall of 2018 proved to be a good one. He was a third-team all-Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference selection after starting all 11 games at right tackle for the Gamecocks. Taylor started all 11 games at right tackle again as a senior, garnering third-team Associated Press All-American and first-team All-MEAC honors.

From his bio, I would think he is a late round flyer that needs time to develop, but the physical tools are there.  This is where coaching comes into play.  The positional coaches can work with these guys to develop the skills they need to perform on the field.  It's harder to take a guy that might be technically sound but has physical limitations.  Not much a positional coach can do, perhaps a physical trainer can help, but people have physical limitations no matter what they try to do.

I think my major confusion was reading that link and the difference between Adjusted Sparq, which some idiot made up and the real Sparq scores.

Alex Taylor had a horrible Sparq score (deservedly low) yet when they put this stupid Adjusted Sparq score he shines as some elite type of prospect. It's beyond flawed. Also if you watched Taylor at the combine he looks skinny with some of the puniest arms I've ever seen. If a team views him as a project, they better plan on waiting multiple years with multiple PEDs being pumped into his system before they put him in a line-up. 

Regarding Becton he didn't generate a Sparq score, yet these idiots have him ranked higher than every other prospect with their Adjusted Sparq. Although I tend to agree with that score, doesn't mean it should be valid or even relied on.