When will the “Big 4” be off the board?

[sec101row23]

Interesting analysis and article for the OT or bust crew    

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/andrew-thomas-tristan-wirfs-mekhi-becton-jedrick-wills-offensive-tackle-nfl-draft-2020

 

Jedrick Wills, Andrew Thomas, Tristan Wirfs and Mekhi Becton make up this class’ Big 4 and that's not just because they're all very big. They are wicked talented too. 

In a class of great offensive linemen across the board, these four set the standard.

All of the top teams are interested in this set of potential franchise cornerstones which begs the question: How far can they really fall? Put another way: Fill in the blank. 

 

"All four offensive tackles will be off the board by pick ...?"

This is my best guess for where these tackles come off the board and just how far the final one falls.

1) CINCINNATI BENGALS: NONE

This is Joe Burrow, even though the Cincinnati Bengals could use a tackle.

2) WASHINGTON REDSKINS: NONE

This is Chase Young, even though the Washington Redskins could use a Trent Williams replacement.

3) DETROIT LIONS: LOW

The Detroit Lions have Taylor Lewan under contract for 2020 and just threw a huge contract at Halapoulivaati Vaitai. They could go after a tackle to replace Lewan so they don't have to extend him after 2020, but they have so many more desperate needs. I would be surprised to see a tackle here.

4) NEW YORK GIANTS: HIGH

The New York Giants don't need any position more desperately than they do tackle, which is saying something given the state of their linebacker and EDGE rooms. With a run-first mentality on offense and finally enough freedom to get out of the Nate Solder contract in 2021, the only chance they pass on a tackle here is if they think Isaiah Simmons is an elite player (very possible) or if Young remains on the board (not very possible).

5) MIAMI DOLPHINS: LOW

The Miami Dolphins definitely need a tackle, and in my opinion, shouldn't let the first round pass without drafting one. Now, can they possibly take one before they take a quarterback at the top of the draft? That would be quite the shock and would only happen if they felt QB2 could be had even later than pick No. 6.

6) LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: DECENT

The tackle likelihood on this pick boils down to how serious the Los Angeles Chargers are about riding with Tyrod Taylor in 2020 and even beyond. If the Chargers don't think he's their future and refuse to add a free-agent quarterback to fight for him in camp, they must grab a developmental QB and this would be the spot.

If they are okay letting the position sit for now then the clear big need on the roster remains at offensive tackle, even after their offensive line juggling during free agency and via trade. Bryan Bulaga is the starting right tackle, but Russell Okung is gone on the left and must be replaced. If this pick isn't a QB, it'll be a tackle.

7) CAROLINA PANTHERS: LOW

It isn't the easiest thing to do, riddling out the Carolina Panthers' strategies these days. It does seem like their tackle starters are set in Okung and Taylor Moton. They also have rookie contract depth options in Dennis Daley and Greg Little. I think this will be a different direction than offensive tackle, but who really knows.

? ARIZONA CARDINALS: HIGH

The Arizona Cardinals look like a competing roster if you squint hard enough that you can't see the trenches — that's on both sides of the ball. D.J. Humphries was extended this offseason, but right tackle is a huge gap on a team that doesn't protect their bookends with tight end chips.

9) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: LOW

This one depends on how the Jacksonville Jaguars feel about Cam Robinson, their starting left tackle who struggled last season as he returned to health from an ACL injury. Right tackle is locked down with Jawaan Taylor, the second-round pick from last year's draft, but if they want to kick Robinson inside to guard, they'll go tackle here.

10) CLEVELAND BROWNS: LOCKED

Lock this one in. Left tackle is the biggest remaining hole on the Cleveland Browns' depth chart. If they go any other direction besides tackle, I'll be shocked.

11) NEW YORK JETS: HIGH

The New York Jets have added a presumptive starter at left tackle in George Fant and saw nice returns from developmental third-round selection Chuma Edoga last season. Neither should be considered prohibitive to drafting a high-caliber offensive tackle. The Jets do have to worry about other big needs at wide receiver and EDGE, but I think the third- or even fourth-best offensive tackle on the board will be a better value than most receivers and EDGEs.

There's the floor for OT4: the 11th pick with the Jets. You can lock in the Browns taking one, and you have a great shot of the Giants, Cardinals and Jets taking one too. Add in the interest that the Chargers have, the wildcards that exist with potential trade ups and the outside shot of some other mismanaged teams and I'd guess we have four tackles off the board in the top 11.

I'm sure Tampa Bay (No. 14) and Denver (No. 15) will prevent the Big 4 from really bottoming out much further if we get there at all.

 

 

[Greenseed4]

I’ve become a fan of that site, and the more I play with their mock draft engine, the more I realize that getting a RT in the 2nd round (Niang) or even waiting until the top of the 3rd (Wilson), allows me to have the best possible drafts. 

We should bring in competition for Edoga, and get a LT prospect that requires a year of development. If we miss out, there are still some free agents we can lean on. The same cannot be said for adding elite WR talent to the roster. 

I really like pairing Ruggs with Van Jefferson; the speedster with the technician. 

[section314]

Good piece. Interesting take from Pat Kirwin on Movin the Chains, the day the Browns signed Conklin. Looked at terms of the deal and basically said, "there's your Lt. Nobody is paying a guy $20mm to play RT."

[SR24]

We need NYG or CAR to fall in love with Simmons or another defensive player. All 4 teams should go o-line (Carolina traded Okung) but we if just 1 passes we should be set. Hell of a risk though especially with the lack of pro days/visits before the draft 

[section314]

1 minute ago, SR24 said:

We need NYG or CAR to fall in love with Simmons or another defensive player. All 4 teams should go o-line (Carolina traded Okung) but we if just 1 passes we should be set. Hell of a risk though especially with the lack of pro days/visits before the draft 

Trying to be an optimist here...........This may work to our advantage. Simmons,Brown, Kinlaw all showed enough on tape/combine to sell themselves. A guy like Becton, for instance, may still  have been on 'the fence" for some teams, and a pro day/visit may have cemented his spot.

[PepPep]

1 hour ago, section314 said:

Good piece. Interesting take from Pat Kirwin on Movin the Chains, the day the Browns signed Conklin. Looked at terms of the deal and basically said, "there's your Lt. Nobody is paying a guy $20mm to play RT."

Unless you plan on drafting a plug and play Franchise LT who you don't have to pay big money to for a few years. 

[rangerous]

in only one year of the past 10 draft have there been more than 2 olinemen taken in the top 10.  one year there were 5 taken; 3 tackles and 2 guards.  given the number of potential top 10 qb's, plus chase young, odukah, simmons, and brown and there's a very good chance there will be one of the top 4 offensive tackles available at pick 11.

and even there, they could go wr and still get some good beef in the 2nd and third rounds.

[PepPep]

I have a feeling Becton and Jones will be there at 11 with the other 3 OTs gone, along with the top WRs. Should be an interesting decision considering how raw Becton is and the fact that he is a boom or bust prospect. 

[TheClashFan]

Every year wacky things happen in the top 10. A weird reach, a stud falls, a trade or two.

I'm crossing my fingers that, somehow, Andrew Thomas falls to the Jets.  In fact, if he were there at 9, I'd consider trading up to nab him, but I wouldn't trade the 2nd rounder to do that, b/c the Jets need a young stud WR, too.

 

[bealeb319]

I think there is one still left after the Jets draft. I think someone trades up for a reciever. Either 49ers or broncoes both need a reciever bad I wouldn't throw it passed the cowboys either even after signing amari cooper.

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[RobR]

31 minutes ago, PepPep said:

I have a feeling Becton and Jones will be there at 11 with the other 3 OTs gone, along with the top WRs. Should be an interesting decision considering how raw Becton is and the fact that he is a boom or bust prospect. 

I think that Becton will end up being the first OT taken. 

[Paradis]

35 minutes ago, PepPep said:

I have a feeling Becton and Jones will be there at 11 with the other 3 OTs gone, along with the top WRs. Should be an interesting decision considering how raw Becton is and the fact that he is a boom or bust prospect. 

You think the top WRs will be gone? Where?

[Wonderboy]

2 hours ago, section314 said:

Good piece. Interesting take from Pat Kirwin on Movin the Chains, the day the Browns signed Conklin. Looked at terms of the deal and basically said, "there's your Lt. Nobody is paying a guy $20mm to play RT."

 

[Wonderboy]

10 minutes ago, RobR said:

I think that Becton will end up being the first OT taken. 

You are 25% correct.

[vtbx]

3 hours ago, PepPep said:

I have a feeling Becton and Jones will be there at 11 with the other 3 OTs gone, along with the top WRs. Should be an interesting decision considering how raw Becton is and the fact that he is a boom or bust prospect. 

Despite the hype, Becton is my least favorite of the big four. It will interesting to see what JD does if it's down to Becton or a WR.

[bitonti]

5 hours ago, sec101row23 said:

 

5) MIAMI DOLPHINS: LOW

The Miami Dolphins definitely need a tackle, and in my opinion, shouldn't let the first round pass without drafting one. Now, can they possibly take one before they take a quarterback at the top of the draft? That would be quite the shock and would only happen if they felt QB2 could be had even later than pick No. 6.

 

So to review they NEED a tackle and SHOULDNT LET THE FIRST ROUND PASS without drafting one 

yet their odds of drafting one is... low ??

essentially this article is predicting 3 tackles gone for sure and optimistically hoping one falls 

that's not how Jets drafts work, my sweet summer child 

[King P]

10 minutes ago, bitonti said:

So to review they NEED a tackle and SHOULDNT LET THE FIRST ROUND PASS without drafting one 

yet their odds of drafting one is... low ??

essentially this article is predicting 3 tackles gone for sure and optimistically hoping one falls 

that's not how Jets drafts work, my sweet summer child 

Because although they have a need at tackle, they have an even bigger need at QB.

There's no way Miami doesn't go QB at 5

[Jet Nut]

5 minutes ago, bitonti said:

So to review they NEED a tackle and SHOULDNT LET THE FIRST ROUND PASS without drafting one 

yet their odds of drafting one is... low ??

Because they have more than one 1st round pick and should use their first one on the QB?  

[Rolloffjet]

#wideout11

[PepPep]

4 hours ago, Paradis said:

You think the top WRs will be gone? Where?

No, I meant the other 3 OTs will be gone but both Jeudy and Lamb will be there. 

[Web72]

I think we’ll have our choice of 2 of them. When you consider the QBs, the defensive talent & the WRs that are play makers. 

[jetstream23]

I think both the Cardinals and Browns are locks, especially after AZ traded for Deandre Hopkins.  Arizona is in the perfect spot, ahead of both the Jets and Browns, to get one of the Top 3 OTs.

This is really shaping up to be a situation where the best talent/value mix for the Jets will be a WR at #11.

It's the reason why I still like the idea of trading down if an OT isn't there at #11.  Drop down to the late teens or early 20's and get a Josh Jones, Justin Jefferson, Denzel Mims, etc. and then have an extra 2nd round pick (which could also be packaged with our original 2nd or one of the 3rds to move back into the end of Round 1 or start of Round 2.

[Jetlife33]

9 hours ago, SR24 said:

We need NYG or CAR to fall in love with Simmons or another defensive player. All 4 teams should go o-line (Carolina traded Okung) but we if just 1 passes we should be set. Hell of a risk though especially with the lack of pro days/visits before the draft 

I think Carolina has to go defense. Who knows with Rhule though. 

[Philc1]

Right now it’s 50/50 at best one of them slides to 11

 

 

Sign Beachum or Peters

[Philc1]

9 hours ago, SR24 said:

We need NYG or CAR to fall in love with Simmons or another defensive player. All 4 teams should go o-line (Carolina traded Okung) but we if just 1 passes we should be set. Hell of a risk though especially with the lack of pro days/visits before the draft 

It’s very likely one of those two draft Simmons

 

Carolina just lost Kuechly.  Simmons is the same type of player

 

[Philc1]

The scenario you want to avoid is Fant starting at LT and Edoga starting at RT because that OL is actually even worse than last year’s 

[bitonti]

7 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Because they have more than one 1st round pick and should use their first one on the QB?  

 

7 hours ago, King P said:

Because although they have a need at tackle, they have an even bigger need at QB.

There's no way Miami doesn't go QB at 5

there will be other QBs available 

Tua has a broken hip, Herbert is soft...

what if they really like Jordan Love?

the value on the tackles is greater, this article is essentially predicting a reach and King P has it at 100% 

also should note any OT pick screws the Jets which is a nice little additional motivation for Miami

[bitonti]

3 hours ago, Philc1 said:

The scenario you want to avoid is Fant starting at LT and Edoga starting at RT because that OL is actually even worse than last year’s 

I know last year's football seems like forever ago but the problem last year wasn't tackle. It was interior OL particularly both guard guard spots and center. Tackle was only an issue when Beachum got hurt. 

[Philc1]

1 minute ago, bitonti said:

I know last year's football seems like forever ago but the problem last year wasn't tackle. It was interior OL particularly both guard guard spots and center. Tackle was only an issue when Beachum got hurt. 

Beachum was average most of the time and he had games where he might as well have not played (Browns, Bengals)

 

I still think we should resign Beachum to a one year deal.  Even if we go OT at 11 which will probably be Wills who played RT at Alabama.  Move Fant inside to Guard

 

[Jet Nut]

20 minutes ago, bitonti said:

 

there will be other QBs available 

Tua has a broken hip, Herbert is soft...

what if they really like Jordan Love?

the value on the tackles is greater, this article is essentially predicting a reach and King P has it at 100% 

also should note any OT pick screws the Jets which is a nice little additional motivation for Miami

Youre not serious are you?

There will be more than one QB available?  And the value of tackles are higher than a QB.  

And wait, the motivation to pass on their shot at the QB they may want is to screw the Jets who may want an OT.

 

[Snell41]

Despite the hype, Becton is my least favorite of the big four. It will interesting to see what JD does if it's down to Becton or a WR.

 

Im in complete agreement. When it comes to OT’s I really care far more about the performance on the field vs the combine. It’s nice Becton is fast, but I want a guy who’s proven it on the field year after year. I’m in the Thomas camp. I think he’s the best overall and the most NFL ready on day one. Imo he is guaranteed to be an NFL starter for the next 10 years.

 

 

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[Jetsfan80]

On 3/29/2020 at 9:28 AM, sec101row23 said:

4) NEW YORK GIANTS: HIGH

The New York Giants don't need any position more desperately than they do tackle, which is saying something given the state of their linebacker and EDGE rooms. With a run-first mentality on offense and finally enough freedom to get out of the Nate Solder contract in 2021, the only chance they pass on a tackle here is if they think Isaiah Simmons is an elite player (very possible) or if Young remains on the board (not very possible).

 

PLEASE Gettleman, make this mistake.  

[bitonti]

12 hours ago, Philc1 said:

Beachum was average most of the time and he had games where he might as well have not played (Browns, Bengals)

 

I still think we should resign Beachum to a one year deal.  Even if we go OT at 11 which will probably be Wills who played RT at Alabama.  Move Fant inside to Guard

 

Beachum played through two bad legs this season and he was good before he got hurt. George Fant is basically younger cheaper Beachum. He's underrated and going to be the starter, unless someone like Becton or Thomas (natural LT with LT experience) fall. Wirfs and Wills are college RT who might be pro RT due to height. 

12 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Youre not serious are you?

There will be more than one QB available?  And the value of tackles are higher than a QB.  

And wait, the motivation to pass on their shot at the QB they may want is to screw the Jets who may want an OT.

In this draft, if you were to grade all these prospects, 1-100, the tackles would all be 90's or above. Contra case Joe Burrow is the only really "elite" QB this year. Tua is a broken man why would a team draft a broken man over a 90 tackle? It's POSSIBLE but it's not a sure fire sure thing. The "GM who wants to keep his job" pick is to take the blue chip tackle in the historic tackle year 

by the way every Oregon QB since Dan Fouts has been crap. And again Tua has a serious SERIOUS injury. these QBs other than Burrow are not great. They have value, but they might not have top 10 value.