Red Dawn Mafia - Day 6

[Pac]

Just now, Barry McCockinner said:

I just think scum, knowing it's mislynch and win scenario, likely would have put leelou at L-1 instead of avoided the train. I'm not saying it's out of the realm of possiblity they let it sit at L2, just trying to play out the game trees.

 

If I was scum I'd do what Jvill has been setting up the last couple days and executed today.  Take pot shots at the guy who's acting pompous then declare on a very important day that he's the "only one I'll vote for"...  It almost worked even though it does appear that Spoot wasn't going to vote me..  still you wouldn't know that so your unvote looked very authentic.

[JustEndTheSuffering]

Me waiting to see if town is going to pull this out. 

[Barry McCockinner]

18 minutes ago, Pac said:

If I was scum I'd do what Jvill has been setting up the last couple days and executed today.  Take pot shots at the guy who's acting pompous then declare on a very important day that he's the "only one I'll vote for"...  It almost worked even though it does appear that Spoot wasn't going to vote me..  still you wouldn't know that so your unvote looked very authentic.

Where are the pot shots you're talking about?

[Barry McCockinner]

1 hour ago, jvill 51 said:

Only one I might disagree with here is Pac/Beaver. Bussing wouldn’t be a bad play if that’s where they thought the wind was blowing. I agree it’s probably unlikely but can’t definitively rule it out mathematically like the others.

Highly unlikely considering Spoot recently said he'd hammer PAC. 

[jvill 51]

44 minutes ago, Pac said:

I don't like sharing pro tips because you need to learn for yourself but I'll give you 1.  Only 1.

It's ok to look scummy sometimes.

For example..  I'm town but playing the way I have has brought me to near end game..  why?  because scum keep me alive hoping for an easy lynch when the time arises such as...  wait for it....  waiiiiitt.....  TODAY!

What you/they aren't taking into consideration is as soon as I decide to play it usually is the end of the road for scum.

I've been paying attention to the last handful of pages and from that I can deduce that I was wrong about Barry..  His play only makes a little sense in the case of him being the last remaining scum.  That's a big reach though as if he was the last scum there's no way he'd draw that kind of attention to himself and would rather just let me get lynched.

Barry has gone from my biggest suspect to strongest town read in a handful of posts.  That's what an expert like me can do with minimal information.

So you're saying that your plan was to appear so scummy that you avoided getting NK'd and then possibly cost town the game by getting yourself mislynched in a potential LyLo scenario because of said scuminess? Brilliant.

 

41 minutes ago, Pac said:

I'm fine with the cautious approach but if I had to guess I'd say there's only 1 scum left and it's either Jvill or Beaver..  that's why I don't care which is lynched first.

don't see why scum would have wasted the 1 time janitor role on a townie drums back when they were reeling.. 

Maybe so scum could float this same exact scenario that it doesn't matter who gets lynched first?

 

[Barry McCockinner]

8 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Highly unlikely considering Spoot recently said he'd hammer PAC. 

Nevermind, not sure what I was thinking. This was a stupid comment.

[jvill 51]

7 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Highly unlikely considering Spoot recently said he'd hammer PAC. 

I agree, and if they're the remaining scum then props to them for a well executed bus, but it's different from the other scenarios you posted where scum could have mathematically won the game.

[Pac]

12 minutes ago, jvill 51 said:

So you're saying that your plan was to appear so scummy that you avoided getting NK'd and then possibly cost town the game by getting yourself mislynched in a potential LyLo scenario because of said scuminess? Brilliant.

 

Maybe so scum could float this same exact scenario that it doesn't matter who gets lynched first?

 

Golf clap for the effort.

[Barry McCockinner]

8 minutes ago, jvill 51 said:

I agree, and if they're the remaining scum then props to them for a well executed bus, but it's different from the other scenarios you posted where scum could have mathematically won the game.

It would be a really good spot to bus since you only need one more mislynch to win.

[Spoot-Face]

21 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Highly unlikely considering Spoot recently said he'd hammer PAC. 

 

12 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Nevermind, not sure what I was thinking. This was a stupid comment.

 

10 minutes ago, jvill 51 said:

I agree, and if they're the remaining scum then props to them for a well executed bus, but it's different from the other scenarios you posted where scum could have mathematically won the game.

 

Hmmm. I'm only half following this convo, but why is it that Barry thinks his comment was stupid, but Jvill agrees with it? Am I missing something?

[Barry McCockinner]

Updating my previous possible scum teams post.

IF we are at lylo, these are the possible teams

• pac & spoot 
• pac & lee 
• beaver & jvill
• pac & beaver - this team being possible means beaver bussing in mislynch and win scenario.

Ruled out or highly unlikely

• lee & jvill - unlikely - lee would have hammered to win. Only hesitation is she may not have been online to see L-1
• beaver & lee - unlikely - lee would have hammered to win. Only hesitation is she may not have been online to see L-1
• pac & jville - no - they would have hammered Lee to win the game
• beaver & spoot - no - spoot would have hammered to win
• spoot & lee - no - spoot would have hammered to win
• spoot & jvill - no spoot would have hammered to win

[Barry McCockinner]

1 minute ago, Spoot-Face said:

 

 

 

Hmmm. I'm only half following this convo, but why is it that Barry thinks his comment was stupid, but Jvill agrees with it? Am I missing something?

I was calling my post stupid because his original point was bussing was possible there if they figured that was just the direction things were going. 

[Barry McCockinner]

1 minute ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Updating my previous possible scum teams post.

IF we are at lylo, these are the possible teams

• pac & spoot 
• pac & lee 
• beaver & jvill
• pac & beaver - this team being possible means beaver bussing in mislynch and win scenario.

Ruled out or highly unlikely

• lee & jvill - unlikely - lee would have hammered to win. Only hesitation is she may not have been online to see L-1
• beaver & lee - unlikely - lee would have hammered to win. Only hesitation is she may not have been online to see L-1
• pac & jville - no - they would have hammered Lee to win the game
• beaver & spoot - no - spoot would have hammered to win
• spoot & lee - no - spoot would have hammered to win
• spoot & jvill - no spoot would have hammered to win

Considering 3 of the possible 4 scum teams include PAC I like our chances lynching PAC today.

 

[jvill 51]

1 minute ago, Spoot-Face said:

 

 

 

Hmmm. I'm only half following this convo, but why is it that Barry thinks his comment was stupid, but Jvill agrees with it? Am I missing something?

I don’t think it likely that Beaver and Pac have been bussing, but Barry included them in his list of potential scum teams that we could pretty much rule out because math. I don’t think they should be included in that list because we can definitively rule out those potential scum teams (pending LeeLou being available to execute the hammer), but agree with him that I don’t think they were bussing.

[Pac]

1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Considering 3 of the possible 4 scum teams include PAC I like our chances lynching PAC today.

 

just when I thought you had turned a corner.

[Pac]

Beaver and Jville..  Pick one.

[Pac]

2 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Where are the pot shots you're talking about?

ugh you're going to make me work?  hold on...

[Nolder]

Deadline: Thursday 2PM EST

[Nolder]

3 hours ago, Nolder said:

Votecount

Spoot - Leelou (1)

New Beaver - PAC (1)

Leelou - Spoot (1)

Pac - Jvill, New Beaver (2)

 

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

 

[Pac]

On 3/31/2020 at 4:44 PM, jvill 51 said:

Leelou is town

his first game related post of the game.  This is quoting Leelou who had just voted me out of the gates..  (potshot #1)

 

On 3/31/2020 at 7:13 PM, jvill 51 said:

2nd game related post quoting JETS who had mocked then voted me..  (potshot #2)

[Pac]

On 4/2/2020 at 10:40 AM, jvill 51 said:

I don’t get this either, and I don’t know if this is what JC is getting at but I don’t like the setting up of back to back lynches.

Ok after the first couple posts Jvill stays quiet the next 15 pages other than 2 harmless posts about Beaver (hmm).

Post above was when AJ vs 80 was going down..  throws some shade at JC

 

On 4/2/2020 at 11:08 AM, jvill 51 said:

I’ve unvoted, waiting to hear from a couple of people before I vote again.

When he's called out for complacency he quickly replies that he'll vote soon.

 

On 4/2/2020 at 12:04 PM, jvill 51 said:

Not sure if I read it so much as flippant, more of a “knowing too much” with a dash of desperation and attempted manipulation of the Beav.

More protection of Beav.

 

On 4/2/2020 at 12:04 PM, jvill 51 said:

I’ve seen enough

Vote AJ

He's "seen enough".

 

On 4/2/2020 at 12:26 PM, jvill 51 said:

Why would we not just lynch 80 then? If that’s the info we’re after why would we leave that up to the vig and possibly be staring down the barrel of three dead townies before D2?

Quickly after seeing enough he floats the idea of voting the other end of dual train..  hmm.

 

On 4/2/2020 at 1:45 PM, Stark said:

UNVOTE

Now THIS is interesting...  Jvill up to this point has been really quiet but he heats up when AJ is getting run up.  Go back and look at the timing of this unvote...  It was literally 2 minutes after AJ claimed Tracker..  2 minutes..  For someone who had sparse participation at best to this point it's either an incredible coincidence or shows there was some behind the scenes coordination going on.  I could easily see AJ saying "I'm about to claim tracker" in the QT and JVill being right there to unvote at the perfect time. 

[Spoot-Face]

2 minutes ago, Pac said:

Now THIS is interesting...  Jvill up to this point has been really quiet but he heats up when AJ is getting run up.  Go back and look at the timing of this unvote...  It was literally 2 minutes after AJ claimed Tracker..  2 minutes..  For someone who had sparse participation at best to this point it's either an incredible coincidence or shows there was some behind the scenes coordination going on.  I could easily see AJ saying "I'm about to claim tracker" in the QT and JVill being right there to unvote at the perfect time. 

That's Stark unvoting you quoted, you fool

[Pac]

On 4/2/2020 at 2:29 PM, jvill 51 said:

The setup is open. There’s a tracker in this game.

While 80 and AJ fight and everyone else tries to figure out what's going on JVill stays completely quiet other than this 1 post answering JC who had doubted AJ's tracker claim.  He had nothing else to say the entire time 80 vs AJ went on other than making sure JC was aware that AJ's claim had merit.

Hello??

[Pac]

On 4/2/2020 at 1:55 PM, jvill 51 said:

Unvote

Correction...

THIS is the unvote of AJ.. 12 minutes after the claim..  I quoted the wrong one..  point still stands.

[Pac]

2 minutes ago, Spoot-Face said:

That's Stark unvoting you quoted, you fool

see my new post fool.

[Pac]

there's more I'm just getting started...  yall let the monster out the cage..  don't F with me.

[Pac]

On 4/2/2020 at 2:43 PM, GATA said:

Day1 FINAL Vote Count

AJ (3)- Jif, New Beaver,80

80 (8)- Drums, Barry, Lee, Stark, AJ, JC, JETS, AVM

AVM (1)- Spoot

JC (1) - Pac

With 14 alive it takes 8 to lynch.

deadline for Today at 3 PM EST.  

Final vote count...

Where's Jvill?

[Pac]

On 4/2/2020 at 3:08 PM, jvill 51 said:

Quoting AJ after the lynch....  while not pulling the trigger on any kind of vote on day 1...

how convenient.

[Pac]

On 4/3/2020 at 10:10 AM, jvill 51 said:

The first reason is at least logical, the second was pretty obviously a joke. I posted after 80 died that AJ was a dead man walking.

Jvill goes back to silent mode for a handful of pages but he pokes his head out when Barry votes him to defend... 

[Pac]

On 4/3/2020 at 10:25 AM, jvill 51 said:

I get it, I might have even followed that line of thinking if I wasn't on the list. But since I am, and I'm town, it's a clear red herring to me.

more assuring Barry he's town with bad defense...

 

On 4/3/2020 at 11:13 AM, jvill 51 said:

Vote JETS

Trying to do a long multi-quote on my phone was a big mistake. I'll pull the quotes again when I'm on the computer but the long and short of it is the frequent defense of AJ at every point through D1 and the suggestion that the vig shouldn't shoot at confirmed scum.

Votes a townie.

[Pac]

On 4/3/2020 at 12:11 PM, jvill 51 said:

 

Here's the direct defense of AJ

 

Defense continued. Doesn't offer another suggestion. AJ was the first non-joking case made, not sure what makes that petty but not the other votes cast.

Potential distancing?

 

80 and Barry call out the defense of AJ too. No more direct defenses of AJ after he gets a little heat for it.

 

 

Reaction to the LeeLou vote on him. Asking a lot of questions, throws a vote on her.

 

 

 

Completely different reaction to the AJ vote on him when compared to the LeeLou vote.

 

Not a big deal here, just reminds me of AJ's defense of Decker from last game.

 

AJ starts the AVM train. Spoot and Beaver would follow and tie the VC at 3-3.

 

Throwing some suspicion on 80.

 

 

JiF was gunning for 80, JETS calls out the ego post. JiF would follow with his post listing AJ, Drums, me as scum.

 

JETS pushes AVM ahead of AJ about 2-3 hours from deadline.

 

Makes sure GATA-bot knows about it (note: the original VC by GATA above was wrong, I guess she edited).

 

JETS pushes 80 to L-1, AVM hammers.

 

Suggests vig shouldn't shoot confirmed scum

 

This was a long scatter brained post quoting a bunch of posts trying to build a case around JETS..  very odd to go from 0 to 60 like this...  seems like he was fed talking points and blurted them out.

[Pac]

On 4/3/2020 at 12:42 PM, jvill 51 said:

I still don't understand why he didn't just fully counter claim. It was an open setup, the only way he could possibly know AJ was lying is if he (80) was scum or the tracker. Plus the editing posts. Made a mess of it when it should have been a clear decision.

why are we still talking about 80 here..  especially since you didn't vote anyone despite the fact you were around.  he did "fully counter claim"..  80 played it horribly but in that spot that counter doesn't make sense if he's scum.  He had 1 VOTE on him at the time he countered.  It was obvious AJ was scum.  Wish I was there to berate 80 while insisting we lynch AJ.

[Pac]

On 4/3/2020 at 1:02 PM, jvill 51 said:

Odds are actually pretty strong we don’t come out the same, and we likely would have been in a far worse position. Again, scum doesn’t kill the symp (most likely outcome) and the vig hits town (also most likely outcome) and we’re down 3-0 right now. We get nowhere near the same info we’d get from lynching the townie the vig killed, and everyone just speed lynches AJ today, scum included, so we get limited info out of that. Then scum picks off another townie at night and we’re down 4-1 with limited info to go off of. That’s the absolute optimal scenario for scum, and you wanted it to happen.

Throwing shade on townie JETS theories.

[Pac]

On 4/3/2020 at 3:23 PM, jvill 51 said:

It doesn’t. But the vig obviously can’t assume that scum will hit the symp. The most likely outcome of the vig shooting anyone other than AJ last night would have resulted in town being down 3-0. JETS was advocating for a course of action that, at the time he was advocating for it, would have most likely ended in 3 dead townies.

More JETS theories and his vote stays there while JC gets lynched.

The fact he didn't switch his vote isn't shady in and of itself..  the fact he said absolutely nothing about JC while he was getting lynched is.. 

[Pac]

On 4/5/2020 at 10:39 AM, jvill 51 said:

Vote JETS

There it is....

On 4/5/2020 at 3:42 PM, jvill 51 said:

LeeLou I've got a town lean on. If the symp wasn't already dead I could read more into her tagging AJ and Pac. I liked that she pushed to consolidate votes before deadline. Don't like that she chose 80 over AJ, but I do like the logic behind it. Liked that she was against directing the vig's shot when AJ was trying to convince people that the vig should shoot 80 N1 (before the fake-claim, botched counter-claim fiasco). Liked that she called out JETS's bad logic re: the vig shooting AJ. Like that she promoted competing trains between JETS and Drums.

Pac I've got a slight scum lean on but I think that'll always be the case with his style of play: comes in, claims he's the greatest and gives one or two scum reads, deflects blame and calls everyone else an idiot if/when he's wrong. Its unhelpful at best, scummy at worst, which will just naturally have me perceiving him as scum. The JC mislynch adds some more substance there though.

potshot #3...  successfully got the JETS lynch so time to move to me.

On 4/5/2020 at 5:57 PM, JustEndTheSuffering said:

Jvill was one of my suspects too. 

Good call.